Security implications of climate change

Antonio MarquinaChair in International Security

Director of UNISCI

Climate Change impacts on Security:

On Human Security

On State Security

On International Security

On Human Security:Projections: Increasing temperatures in

different parts of the world, decreasing precipitation, shortening of rainy season, sea level rise, biodiversity loss, health effects, environmentally induced migration, ocean acidification and natural disasters

Serious implications for people: the satisfaction of their basic needs (water, food), health and on their possibility of development

Complication for the governing capacity. Possible rise of authoritarian political regimes.

On State Security:1-Possible relative weakening of

various states because of the increasing poverty, loss of opportunities, competitivy and capacity. Climate change will undermine the

economic and agricultural base of many countries and affect marine ecosystems. Possible Failed states.

Environmentally induced migration. Countries can not close the doors

2-Possible increase in opportunities, wealth, capacity and resources in other states

Climate change will exacerbate existing tensions and even trigger new ones. Conflicts and Crisis.

Increase resilience, reduce vulnerabilities. Adaptation and Mitigation: ACTION and limited resources

Winners and loosers: Significant effects on regional security.

On International Security:Competition for the explotation of resources in

new areas that can be open up for exploitationNew Distribution of Power. New International Security ArchitectureChallenges:Maintenance of Peace and Security.Global

InstitutionsConflict Prevention ( including mitigation and

adaptation policies, capacity building and other means including possible coercion)

Humanitarian InterventionResponsability to Protect

Conflict PreventionCritical precondition is early warning

Early warming systems for disasters, floods, forest fires, earthquakes…

The EU current early warning systems will focus more on climate change and environmental degradation

Potential dangers and areas of risk.

Recommendations for Early warning systems in the EUFood productionExtreme weather eventsDrought, rainfall, desertificationRetreat of glaciersWater supplyMigration related to environmental factorsGlobal factors, such as commodity prices

ToolsSatellite Center of TorrejonNational and European meteorological

agenciesMember states national administrations and

embassiesCommission delegationsEU network of energy correspondentsJoint Research CentreThird countries and International

Organizations

New analytical methods

Coordination with the EU crisis management structures

Clear differentiation with other countries and continents such as Asia.

Early Action

On Mitigation

On Adaptation

On Human SecurityFreedom from want

Freedom from fear and “conflict multiplier” links with hard security issues

Not a clear line between human security and traditional security

Thank you for your attention