Strategic Approaches and Tools for Managing Complex Projects

Anton Rossouw Project Director (CPPD)

Overview Why is this important ? What is Complexity and Complexity Theory ? What is a complex project ? Which approaches, models and tools are available ? What may this mean for project management practice ? Where is all this leading ?

“I think the next century (21st) will be the century of complexity” Stephen Hawking (1942-!)

“I wouldn't give a nickel for the simplicity on this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity.” Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.” H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)

Three wise men…

“Project management is the art of creating the illusion that any outcome is the

result of a series of predetermined, deliberate acts when, in fact, it was

dumb luck”

Source: Kerzner, H., (2009), Project Management – A systems approach to Planning, Scheduling and Controlling, 10th edition, John Wiley & Sons.

Understanding project failure

Low

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Mid

Roll-Out 1

Roll-Out 2

Projects fail here !

Projects are constructed to fail

or succeed here !

Projects succeed here !

Time

Collapse of Value

Space of Opportunity

(and high Uncertainty)

“In the past few years, ever since uncertainty became our insistent twenty-first-century companion, leadership strategies have taken a great leap backward to the familiar territory of command and control”Source: Wheatley, M.J., (2005), Finding our Way – Leadership for an Uncertain, Berrett-Koehler, San Francisco.

Uncertainty in the driving seat! Faced with unknowns and change

Trying to come to terms and respond to a myriad of accelerating and connected social, technological, ethical, economic, and ecological changes, pressures and tipping points on both a global scale and local scales.

The need to adapt, flourish and grow sustainably as opposed to respond inappropriately, get it wrong, collapse and go extinct.

Yes we can ….

The Aim

“Explore, make sense of, and understand complex situations and contexts so that we can act appropriately and create the conditions that will lead us to sustainable and progressive futures”

Seeing Complexity

Source: Sole, R., Goodwin, B., (2000) Signs of Life – How complexity pervades Biology, Basic Books, New York.

In Control Un-Control Out of Control

Stability Evolution/Revolution Catastrophe

Constrictive Principled Conflicted

Regimented Dynamic Chaotic

Ukiyo-e woodblock print - “The Great Wave” by Hokusai from his subscription series, “Thirty-Six Views of Mt. Fuji,” completed between 1826 and 1833.

Source: Brian Castellani - Complexity Science Map : http://www.art-sciencefactory.com/complexity-map_feb09.html

Location of the knowledge

Source: Snowden, D. and Stanbridge, P. (2004) The Landscape of Management: Creating the context for understanding social complexity, Emergence, Vol 6 1-2, pp. 140-148

Mechanical

Organic

Everything is not Complex

Source: Cilliers, P. (1998) Complexity and postmodernism: Understanding complex systems, London and New York, Routledge

Complicated System Interrelated parts. Linear behaviour, Predictable. Equal to the sum of its parts.

Complex System Connected elements. Non-Linear responses, unpredictable behaviour. Positive and Negative feedback, spontaneous emergence. Cannot be described by analysing the components alone.

Wicked Problems

www.deathandtaxes.com

The war in Afghanistan

US Federal Spending

“When we understand that slide, we’ll have won the war,” General McChrystal

“Tricare, a health care plan for 2.2 million military retirees, is separate from the VA. The premium is $470 a year, and there’s no co-pay, and the cost is $53 billion a year” Alan Simpson Co-chair deficit reduction commission

Complexity Theory A shift away from the predictability of classical science. A fundamental world-view shift, new integrated

multidisciplinary science, still emerging, with various origins, interpretations and definitions.

Time driven dynamical systems; that are “living”, learning, evolving and spontaneously self-organising.

Open to environmental interaction, nonlinear behaviors, unpredictable emergent phenomena.

The behavior of agents in Complex Adaptive Systems. Emergence at the “edge of chaos”.

Complexity in actionRobot powered by Physarum slime mould. Sources (17 June 2009) : http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/feb/15/uknews.robots

Arab Spring Tipping Point

Flocking behaviour – 3D Boids: Source (17 June 2009) http://www.navgen.com/3d_boids/index.html

Jazz ImprovisationEvolution of Manchester UK

http://www.e-ir.info Publication “The Arab Spring of Discontent”

“If a revolution destroys a government, but the systematic patterns of thought that produced that government are left intact, then those patterns will repeat themselves… There’s so much talk about the system. And so little understanding.”Robert Pirzig, Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.

Complex Adaptive System

Source (22 June 2009) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_adaptive_system

What is a complex project ? Responding to a catastrophic event or impending crisis. Something small that may have large impacts. Something creative we have not tried before. Events forcing us to drastically change tack. Innovation required to stay ahead of the pack. A need to explore strategic alternatives. Development of high performance innovative teams. Opposing stakeholder forces and strong conflicts. Carries lots of uncertainty and dynamical oscillations.

Traditional view of the project

Complexity view of a project

AB

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Project 1

Organisation A

Shadow Network

Legitimate Network

XAgent

GHJ

IK

Organisation B

Environment / Landscape

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Project 2

Adapted from : Stacey, R.(1996) Complexity and creativity in organizations, San Francisco, Berrett-Koehler Publishers Inc.

Ralph Stacey’s Matrix

Source: Stacey, R.(1996) Strategic Management and Organizational Dynamics: The challenge of complexity, 1st Ed, Pearson Education, Upper Saddle River, N.J. More from www.plexusinstitute.com (Brenda Zimmerman)

The Diamond ModelTechnology

Pace

NoveltyComplexity

Super High Tech

High Tech

Medium Tech

Low Tech

Regular

Fast / Competitive

Time Critical

Blitz

Derivative Platform Breakthrough

Array System Assembly

Automatic bag-handling system(Required Style)

Denver International Airport Construction

Project (Actual Style)

Source: Shenhar, J., Dvir, D., (2007) Re-inventing Project Management – The diamond approach to successful growth and innovation, Boston, Harvard Business School Press

Project Complexity Model

Highly Complex

Moderately Complex

Independent

Team Composition and Performance

Urgency / Flexibility

Problem / Solution Clarity IT Complexity

Requirements Volatility

Political SensitivityMultiple Stakeholders

Level of Organization /Commercial Change

Risks, External Constraints and Dependencies

Cost / Duration

Source: Hass, K., (2009) Managing Complex Projects – A New Model, Management Concepts, Vienna, VA.

Cynefin ModelComplex Complicated

Chaotic Simple

Source: Snowden, D.J. Boone, M., (2007) A Leader's Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, November 2007, pp. 69-76.

EmergentPractice

NovelPractice

BestPractice

SpecialistPractice

Probe-Sense-Respond Sense-Analyse-Respond

Sense-Categorise-RespondAct-Sense-Respond

Known- UnknownsUnknown - Unknowns

Unknowables Known - Knowns

Ord

er

Un-

Ord

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Dis-Order

Connection and Control StrengthComplex Complicated

Chaotic Simple

Weak central, strong distributed

Strong central, strong distributed

Strong central, weak distributed

Weak central, weak distributed

Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

Sub domains and boundary transition

Warm and FuzzyDistractions

True Catastrophe

Constraints on system and agents appear

Agent interactions breaking down

Issue requiring expert intervention appear

High uncertain

risk of catastrophe

Obvious solutions and opportunities

to crises appear

Increasing predictability,

agent interactions stabilizing

Expert knowledge

breaks down, increasing

agent interactions

Tyranny of the Experts

Mind-Numbing Bureaucracy

Simple

Complex

Complicated

Chaotic

Knowledge diffused, system increasingly well understood

Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

Flow dynamicsComplex Complicated

Chaotic Simple

Collapse

Imposition

Conv

erge

nce

Divergence

JIT Transfer

Exploration

Standardisation

Improvem

ent

Swarming

Source: www.cognitive-edge.com

Cognitive-Edge tools Cynefin Contextualisation –Strategic planning Butterfly Stamping – Highlight differences Future Backwards – Clarify perspectives and lessons Anecdote Circles – Narrative understanding and collection Archetype Extraction – Pattern disruption and intervention Safe-Fail Probes – Find the best path, test coherence Ritual Dissent – Challenge entrenchment with diversity

Source: www.cognitive-edge.com (open source methods)

Agile Project Management

SCRUM tools Product Owner, Scrum Master, Diverse Team Poker Planning/Estimation User Stories Product Backlog Task Boards, Burn-down Charts Sprints and Daily Scrums Retrospectives

Serious play - Innovation Games

Sources: Gray, D., Brown S., Macanufo, J., (2010) Game Storming – a Playbook for Innovators, Rulebreakers and Changemakers,, O-Reilly Media, Sebastopol, CA. Hohmann, L., (2007), Innovation Games – Creating Breakthrough Products Through Collaborative Play, Addison-Wesley, Boston.

• Prune the Product Tree• Remember the Future• Spider Web• Product Box• Buy a Feature• Start Your Day• Show and Tell• Me and My Shadow• Give them a Hot Tub• The Apprentice• 20/20 Vision• Speed Boat

• RACI Matrix• SWOT Analysis• Synesthesia• Wizard of Oz• World Café• Ethos, Logos , Pathos• Prune the Future• Empathy Map• Forced Ranking• Post-Up• 3-12-3 Brainstorming• The Anti-Problem

AB

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Project 1

Organisation A

Shadow Network

Legitimate Network

XAgent

GHJ

IK

Organisation B

Environment / Landscape

ST

U

Project 2

3600 SWAT Teams

Radical co-location Multi-skilled Cross functional Pod of 7 + or – 2 never 8 Leadership Emergence Constraints and Freedoms Resources and Tools Self Organisation Artifacts/Products Patterns /Learning

Critical Chain Project Management

10% confidence

50% confidence95% confidence

Task Duration

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Source: www.ensemblepartners.com.au

Strategy and approach The objective of complexity thinking is to make sense of

contexts and act adaptively to reach emergent simplicity. Convert initial chaotic and complex starting conditions through contextual

sense-making into progressively elaborated “simplified” strategies. Understand the project systemically at first, create appropriate methodology

that address components according to their profiles by applying models and tools to accelerate the velocity of understanding/simplification.

Remain vigilant by sensing for signals and patterns that may indicate approaching dynamical non-linear state changes that may require further systemic adaptation and asset/resource protection.

Delivery risk is lowest where understanding, certainty and simplicity is at its highest (but that’s no guarantee of anything).

Complex Adaptive methodology

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Phase 4

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Sources: www.management30.com and www.agilemanifesto.org

Resources for the curious…

http://www.plexusinstitute.com http://www.santafe.edu http://www.emergentpublications.com

http://www.chaosforum.com http://www.iq.harvard.edu/blog/netgov/complexity/

http://www.complexitydigest.com http://www.necsi.edu

E-mail: anton.rossouw@protegic.com.au

Mobile: +61 (0) 439 802 017