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Climate policy and innova0on Antoine Dechezleprêtre ‘Paris and Beyond – Pragma1c Climate Policy’ Seminar Series, Oxford, 4 February 2015

Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

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Page 1: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Climate  policy  and  innova0on  

Antoine  Dechezleprêtre    

‘Paris  and  Beyond  –  Pragma1c  Climate  Policy’  Seminar  Series,  Oxford,  4  February  2015

Page 2: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Emissions  scenarios  

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations requires moving away from the baseline, regardless of the mitigation goal.

13 Source:  IPCC  2014

Page 3: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

The  challenge  

•  Stabilizing  emissions  in  2050  requires  60%  reducDon  in  carbon  intensity  of  GDP  (Assuming  2.5%  annual  GDP  growth)  

•  To  achieve  long  term  decarbonizaDon  we  need  a  large  change  in  the  mix  of  technology  we  use  (or  dramaDc  social  and  cultural  changes)  

Page 4: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Europe’s  Energy  Roadmap  2050  

6

2013 Technology Map of the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan

The Technology Map 2013 together with the scheduled Joint Research Centre (JRC) report on Energy Technology Reference Indicators (ETRI)1 of SETIS provide up-to-date and impartial information about the current and anticipated future European energy technology portfolio. The two reports provide support to:

• policymakers in strategic decision making and in particular for identifying future priorities for research, development and demonstration (RD&D);

• policymakers in identifying barriers to low-carbon technologies;

• the modelling community by providing a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling activities.

Trends since 2011

A comparison of the status of the low-carbon technologies presented in the Technology Map 2011 with the Technology Map 2013 highlights the following distinguishable trends.

• Some types of renewable energy sources (RES) have added significant capacity (e.g.

1 To be published in 2014.

Figures 0.1–0.4: Share of electricity

generation technologies according to the Energy

Roadmap 2050

solar photovoltaics (PV), onshore wind and technologies using biomass), whereas the development is slower for others (e.g. CCS, marine energy and geothermal energy).

• Costs for several low-carbon energy technolo- gies have continued to decline (e.g. onshore wind and solar PV).

• Some low-carbon technologies are not yet competitive as compared to technologies using fossil fuels. This remains a key barrier to their large-scale deployment. Barriers to large-scale implementation of RES technolo-gies have increased in some countries due to reduced financial support. In addition, the very low-carbon emission costs of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) are disadvantageous for low-carbon technolo-gies versus technologies using fossil fuels.

• The increasing share of variable renewa-bles and their low operating costs reduce electricity costs and stalled investments in conventional fossil-based power production. These could disrupt the grid stability and the security of supply in the longer term if not addressed properly.

• A stable regulatory framework providing a pre-dictable investment environment is needed for most technologies.

Ref. scenario 2005

Div Supply Tech 2050

Ref. scenario 2050

high RES 2050

Nuclear energyConventional thermalCCSBiomass-waste

Hydro WindSolar Geothermal and other renewables

Page 5: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

InnovaDon  is  key  

•  Climate  change  miDgaDon  requires  massive  investments  in  innovaDon  1.  Developing  new  breakthrough  technologies  

(hydrogen?)  2.  Making  the  transiDon  possible  with  enabling  

technologies  (smart  grids,  storage)  3.  Reducing  the  cost  of  exisDng  technologies              

(also  key  to  improve  the  robustness  of  internaDonal  agreements)  

Page 6: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Costs  of  miDgaDon  scenarios  

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Global costs rise with the ambition of the mitigation goal.

21

Based on Table SPM.2

Source:  IPCC  2014

Page 7: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Availability  of  technology  greatly  influences  miDgaDon  costs  

Source:  IPCC  2014

Page 8: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

The  innovaDon  chain  

Source:  Grubb,  2014.  Planetary  Economics    Source: Grubb, Hourcade, and Neuhoff. (2014): Planetary Economics: energy, climate change and the three domains of sustainable development. Routledge

Diffusion

POLICYENVIRONMENT‐ taxincentives,subsidies,emissionspricing,regulations

Supply/Research

Demand/Consumers

FrameworkConditions– MacroeconomicStability,Education&Skills,IPProtectionEtc.

Market accumul

ation

Commercial-isation

Demon-stration

Applied R&D

Basic Research

Product/TechnologyPush

MarketPull

Fig.9.5 The Innovation Chain

“Invention” “Innovation” “Diffusion”

Technologies have to traverse a long, expensive and risky chain of innovation to get from idea to market

Page 9: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Market  failures  at  all  stages  

•  Pollu0on  externality  (carbon  emissions  induce  damages  that  are  not  paid  for)  hampers  diffusion  

•  Knowledge  externali0es  (innovators  are  not  rewarded  for  all  the  benefits  of  their  invenDons)  at  innovaDon  stage  

•  Learning-­‐by-­‐doing  (early  producers  generate  knowledge  through  the  produc5on  process)  

•  ImperfecDons  in  capital  markets  •  Lock-­‐in  /  path  dependence  •  Many  more:  long  lived  capital,  high  upfront  costs,  uncertainty  

over  future  policies,  imperfect  compeDDon  in  energy  markets,  behavioral  gaps,  regulatory  barriers  to  adopDon…  

Page 10: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Policies  to  get  the  incenDves  right  

Page 11: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Fixing  the  environmental  externality  

•  Climate  change  policies  encourage  the  adop5on  of  low  carbon  technologies    

•  This  in  turn  incenDvizes  innovaDon  (induced  innova5on)  

11  

Page 12: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

The  EU  ETS  impact  on  clean  innovaDon  

•  Calel  &  Dechezleprêtre,  2014.  Environmental  Policy  and  Directed  Technological  Change:  Evidence  from  the  European  carbon  market.  Review  of  Economics  and  Sta5s5cs,  forthcoming  

•  Empirical  analysis  of  the  impact  of  the  EU  ETS  on  low-­‐carbon  technological  change  

•  Use  patents  filed  with  the  European  Patent  Office  (EPO)  to  measure  innovaDon  

•  Use  new  EPO  ‘low  carbon  patents’  classificaDon  

Page 13: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

EPO’s  low-­‐carbon  patent  class  

Page 14: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Share  of  low-­‐carbon  patents  at  EPO  

0

1%

2%

3%

4%

Shar

e of

pat

ents

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Low-carbon innovation

EU ETS

0

1%

2%

3%

4%

Shar

e of

pat

ents

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Low-carbon innovation

Page 15: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

EU ETS

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oil p

rice

(201

0 $)

0

1%

2%

3%

4%

Shar

e of

pat

ents

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Low-carbon innovation Crude oil price

A  consequence  of  the  EU  ETS?  Impossible d'afficher l'image. Votre ordinateur manque peut-être de mémoire pour ouvrir l'image ou l'image est endommagée. Redémarrez l'ordinateur, puis ouvrez à nouveau le fichier. Si le x rouge est toujours affiché, vous devrez peut-être supprimer l'image avant de la réinsérer.

EU ETS

0

20

40

60

80

100

Oil p

rice

(201

0 $)

0

1%

2%

3%

4%

Shar

e of

pat

ents

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Low-carbon innovation Crude oil price

Page 16: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

A  matching  analysis  

•  IdenDfy  regulated  companies  •  Compare  them  with  unregulated  companies  in  the  same  economic  sectors  and  countries,  same  size,  same  pre-­‐ETS  R&D  acDvity  – Owners  of  smaller  installaDons  

•  Inclusion  rules  –  “CombusDon  of  fuels”:  annual  thermal  input  >  20  MWh  

–  Steel:  producDon  capacity  >  2.5  tonnes  per  hour  – Glass  &  glass  fibre:  melDng  capacity  >  20  tonnes  per  day.    

Page 17: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

EU ETS

Treated

Control

0

20

40

60

80

Gre

en p

aten

ts

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Year

Treated (ETS) Control (non ETS)

Low-­‐carbon  patents:  treated  (ETS)  vs  control  group  (non-­‐ETS)  

Source:  Calel  &  Dechezleprêtre  (2014)  Environmental  Policy  and  Directed  Technological  Change:  Evidence  from  the  European  carbon  market  

Page 18: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Emissions  pricing  works!  

•  The  ETS  had  a  strong  impact  on  low  carbon  innovaDon  by  regulated  companies    •  Impact  of  EU  ETS  =  +  10%  low-­‐carbon  patents    •  The  impact  is  concentrated  at  the  beginning  of  Phase  2…  when  prices  were  meaningful  

18  

Page 19: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

!!

50!

Figure!5:!Simulations!over!time!of!the!effects!of!increases!in!fuel!price!A:!No!change!in!fuel!price!

!

B:!10%!increase!in!fuel!prices!

!C:!20%!increase!in!fuel!prices!

!

D:!30%!increase!in!fuel!prices!

!E:!40%!increase!in!fuel!prices

!

F:!50%!increase!in!fuel!prices

!Notes:! these!graphs!show!the!simulated!evolution!of! the!aggregate!clean!and!dirty!knowledge!stocks!between!2005!and!2030!depending!on! the!variation! in! fuel!prices.!The!knowledge! stock! is! the!discounted! sum!of!past!patents.! Fuel! prices! are! assumed! to! increase! at! once! in!2005!and! remain! constant! thereafter.! Simulations! are!based!on!CFX!estimations!presented!in!Table!6!columns!(1)!and!(4).!!!

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 0%

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 10%

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 20%

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 30%

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 40%

2000

4000

6000

8000

1000

012

000

Know

ledg

e St

ocks

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030year

Clean Knowledge Dirty knowledgePrice increase of 50%

Source:  Aghion  et  al  (2014).  Carbon  Taxes,  Path  Dependence  and  Directed  Technical  Change:  Evidence  from  the  Auto  industry.  Journal  of  Poli5cal  Economy,  forthcoming    

Carbon  pricing  can  redirect  the  economy  onto  a  clean  growth  path    

Page 20: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

A  key  role  for  mulDlateral  policies  •  The  market  for  technologies  is  global  •  Clean  policies  affect  domesDc  and  foreign  innovaDon  

•  Ex:  100  MW  of  new  wind  capacity  (=  €50M  in  FiTs)  induce  –  1  invenDon  domesDcally  –  2  invenDons  abroad  Source:  Dechezleprêtre  &  Glachant  (2013).  Does  foreign  environmental  policy  influence  domesDc  innovaDon?  Evidence  from  the  wind  industry.  Environment  and  Resource  Economics  

Ø Large  cross-­‐border  effects  

Page 21: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

•  How  important  are  knowledge  spillovers  in  clean  technologies?  

•  Dechezleprêtre,  Mar5n,  Mohnen  (2014).  Knowledge  spillovers  from  clean  and  dirty  technologies  

•  Compare  intensity  of  spillovers  between  clean  and  dirty  technologies  •  2  sectors:  transportaDon  and  electricity  

producDon  

Addressing  knowledge  externaliDes  

Page 22: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Dirty   Group   Clean  

Fossil  fuel  based  (coal  &  gas)

Electricity  generation Renewables

Internal  combustion  vehicles

Automotive Electric,  Hybrid,  Hydrogen

Page 23: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

•  Count  citaDons  made  by  future  patents  – Mandatory  for  inventors  to  cite  "prior  art"    – Data  availability  – Technological  disaggregaDon    

•  1.2  million  invenDons  filed  in  107  patent  offices  from  1950  to  2005,  3  million  citaDons  made  to  these  invenDons    – World  Patent  StaDsDcal  Database  (PATSTAT)  @  EU  Patent  Office  

23  

Page 24: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Citations  to  1000  dirty.... …and  1000  clean  innovations

Page 25: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Table 3: Basic results

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Dep. var. Citations received PatentRank

Clean invention 0.398*** 0.392*** 0.430*** 0.267*** 0.264*** 0.292***(0.015) (0.015) (0.014) (0.013) (0.014) (0.014)

Number of patents -0.092*** -0.057*** -0.052*** -0.031***(0.008) (0.007) (0.006) (0.005)

Family size 0.073*** 0.067***(0.004) (0.003)

Triadic 0.456*** 0.241***(0.036) (0.025)

Granted 0.947*** 0.491***(0.031) (0.021)

Patent office-by-year-by-sector yes yes yes yes yes yesMonth fixed effect yes yes yes yes yes yes

Obs. 1,149,988 1,149,988 1,149,988 1,149,988 1,149,988 1,149,988

Notes: Robust standard errors in parentheses (* p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001). The dependent variable is the total numberof citations received excluding self-citations by inventors (columns 1 to 3) and the PatentRank after 20 iterations (columns 4 to6). All columns are estimated by fixed-effects Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood.

In order to investigate the evolution of the relative intensity of spillovers across time, we run

our estimation for each five years period between 1950 and 2005 and plot the coefficients

obtained for clean invention along with their 95% confidence intervals in Figures 2 and 3.

We find that there has been a clear increase in the clean premium over time.

In Table 4 we present the regressions results for each technology separately. The results are

robust across both sectors, but we find some heterogeneity in the clean coefficient. Clean

inventions in the transportation sector receive 35% more citations than dirty inventions,

while the clean premium in the electricity is larger (49%).

Our strategy is to estimate a simple count data model of the type

C

i

= exp(�Clean

i

+ �X

i

+ ✏

i

) (1)

20

New technology

+43%  spillovers     +29%  spillovers    

Page 26: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Spillovers  higher  in  all  technologies  

Source:  Dechezleprêtre  et  al  (2014).  Knowledge  spillovers  from  clean  and  dirty  technologies  

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

hydro geothermal ocean energy_storage wind solar distribution biomass

Baseline  =  Coal/gas  

Page 27: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

!0.3%

!0.2%

!0.1%

0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

Electricity%%dirty%

Car%%dirty%

Biotechs%

Electricity%clean%

Car%clean% Robot%

IT%Nano% 3D%

Baseline  =  average  technology  

Spillovers  from  clean,  dirty  &  emerging  technologies  

Page 28: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Policy  implicaDons  Ø Support  to  clean  R&D  strongly  jusDfied  –  Public  R&D:  government  support  crucial  for  basic  R&D  in  clean  techs  (long-­‐term  payoffs,  large  uncertainty)  

–  Support  to  private  R&D:  Subsidies  to  private  R&D  should  reflect  the  size  of  external  spillovers,  which  are  large  for  clean  technologies  

Ø Support  on  radically  clean  techs  rather  than  on  improvements  of  dirty  techs  

Ø If  knowledge  externality  cannot  be  addressed  properly  this  jusDfies  higher  emissions  pricing  

Page 29: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Knowledge  spillovers  are  global  

•  Globally,  49%  of  spillovers  in  clean  technologies  occur  outside  of  the  inventor’s  country  

•  Even  more  for  small  open  European  countries:  France  75%,  UK  83%,  NL  90%  

Ø The  incen0ves  to  subsidize  R&D  are  much  higher  for  the  world  as  a  whole  than  for  individual  countries  

Ø This  makes  mulDlateral  cooperaDon  on  R&D  avracDve  

29  

Page 30: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

The  economic  consequences  of  switching  to  clean  innovaDon  

Page 31: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Marginal  Benefits   from  Clean  R&D

Total  R&D  spending

Marginal  Benefits  from   Dirty  R&D

OpDmal  dirty  R&D  OpDmal  Clean  R&D  

Total  R&D  

Marginal  private  profit    of  R&D  investor  from  

dirty  R&D  

Marginal  private  (discounted  future)  

profit  of  R&D  investor  from  clean  R&D   Lost  profit  when  

being  forced  away  from  opDmum  

Gov’t  pushing  clean  

Page 32: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

Marginal  Benefits   from  Clean  Technology

Total  R&D  spending

Marginal  Benefits  from   Dirty  Technology

Marginal  profits  of  R&D  investor  and  spillover  recipients  

Marginal  profits  of  R&D  investor  and  spillover  recipients  

Higher  spending  on  clean  can  improve  social  welfare  if  clean  spillovers  are  

larger  than  dirty  spillovers  

Gov’t  pushing  clean  

Page 33: Antoine(Dechezleprêtre(( … · 2015-02-05 · a complete overview of the technology, markets, barriers and techno-economic performance, which are required for systemic modelling

If  Clean  >  Dirty  Spillovers  •  A  policy-­‐induced  redirecDon  of  innovaDon  from  

dirty  to  clean  technologies  will  reduce  the  net  cost  of  environmental  policies...    

•  ...  and  can  even  lead  to  higher  economic  growth    •  One  of  the  theoreDcal  moDvaDons  for  the  Porter  

hypothesis  [Mohr  (2002);  Smulders  &  de  Nooij  (2003);  Hart  (2004,  2007);  Ricci  (2007)]  

•  For  this  to  happen  requires  that  the  knowledge  externality  is  not  properly  internalized  

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Conclusions  and  pracDcal  recommendaDons  

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What  we  need  in  Paris  

•  Long  term  carbon  pricing  mechanisms  with  pledges  for  sustained  R&D  support  

•  CreaDng  the  demand  for  technologies  through  carbon  markets/taxes/technology  mandates  is  key  (e.g.  CCS)  

•  But  gezng  prices  right  is  not  enough:  the  market  favours  lower-­‐cost  technologies  

•  Combining  demand-­‐pull  with  R&D  policies  reduces  the  cost  of  climate  policy  (Acemoglu  et  al.  2012,  Acemoglu  et  al  2014)  

•  CombinaDon  of  carbon  pricing  and  R&D  support  is  key  for  clean  to  come  at  the  expense  of  dirty  

35  

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EU  27  public  R&D  spending  in  energy  technologies  (million  euros)    

36  

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

EU27

Pub

lic R

&D e

xpen

ditu

res

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Source:  IEA  

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Government  R&D  expenditure  in  OECD  member  countries  in  2011  

2DS, they need to lead the way by taking informed, decisive action that builds confidenceamong the entire network of energy sector stakeholders.

Innovation is central to transforming any established system, whether through novel technicalsolutions or by adapting existing practices to meet new challenges or to work in differentenvironments. Although absolute spending on energy related RD&D has increased, the shareof energy RD&D is not keeping pace with the level of ambition needed to meet long termeconomic, security and climate goals. OECD countries’ spending on energy RD&D has beengenerally decreasing as a share of total research budgets over the past 30 years, asgovernments have preferred other areas of research, such as health, space programmes andgeneral university research.

Figure 1.22 Government R&D expenditure in OECD member countries in 2011

81 bn USDDefence

48 bn USDHealth and environment

49 bn USDGeneral university funds

48 bn USDOther

37 bn USDNon-oriented research

16 bn USDSpace programmes

12 bn USDEnergy

Source: OECD, 2014.

Key point OECD member countries have increased absolute spending on energy related RD&D,but the overall share remains low.

Despite the lessening emphasis on energy innovation, technological development is occurringin all sectors – with efforts towards incremental improvements and new breakthroughtechnologies. 23 With increased ambition, these developments could not only support, but alsoaccelerate the changes needed to decouple social and economic growth from an energydependence that negatively affects the global climate.

ETP analysis reasserts the IEA long-standing message on the importance of establishing theright framework conditions and incentives, including well-designed and predictable RD&Dprogrammes, along with tailored, adaptable market instruments and innovative business modelsto support deployment (IEA, 2012; IEA, 2011). The ability to assess the effectiveness of policymeasures along all the stages of the innovation process is particularly critical (Figure 1.23).

23 Recent technological developments in major energy sectors are captured in Chapter 2.

© OECD/IEA, 2014.

54 Part 1Setting the Scene

Chapter 1The Global Outlook

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Public  R&D  expenditures  on  energy  in  GDP  in  Europe  (2011)    

0.00%$

0.02%$

0.04%$

0.06%$

0.08%$

0.10%$

0.12%$

0.14%$

Austria$

Belgium$

Czech$Republic$

Denmark$

Finland$

France$

Germany$

Greece$

Hungary$

Ireland$

Italy$

Netherlands$

Poland$

Portugal$

Slovak$Republic$

Spain$

Sweden$

United$Kingdom$

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Is  this  enough?  

39  

high. Consequently, without the complex political economy it is impossible to understand why different

countries (and even regions) embarked on very different policy mixes.

There are different reasons why it is difficult to analytically identify optimal policy mixes: (i) the different

rationales for renewables support, (ii) the numerous technology options, (iii) the substantial differences in the

initial conditions, (iv) a wide continuum of combinations of support policies. According to Figure 2, countries like

Germany and Italy spent on RD&D less than 0.5 percent of the budget for public support to the deployment of

renewable energy technologies. Thereby, to our knowledge no country applies an ‘analytic’ approach for

determining the policy mix that best suits the rationales. This resembles a ‘shot in the dark’ approach, and its

persistence is astonishing, given the magnitude of the corresponding public spending.

Figure 2: Deployment vs. RD&D expenditure for wind and solar in 2010 in six EU countries (in € millions)

Source: Bruegel calculation based on IEA and datastream.

Note: Net deployment costs are calculated as the difference of the deployment costs10 and the net present value of the future electricity generated11. The

countries are the five largest EU countries (DE,ES,FR,IT,UK) plus the Czech Republic (the largest Central East European country for which we have data)

10 Deployment costs are calculated as the installation costs per MWe multiplied with the deployed capacity. The country-specific costs per MWe are obtained from the "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2010" report of the IEA. 11 The net present value of future electricity generated is calculated by discounting future revenues which can be obtained by projecting the yearly energy prices (we use the price of a 2013 futures contract) and production of the respective technology in the respective country (differences across countries arise because of varying hours of sun/wind per year as well as different energy prices). We assume a nominal interest rate of 10 percent.

48298

315

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

RDD Deployment

Source:  Zachmann  et  al  2014  

Deployment  vs  R&D  support  in  renewables  Wind  +  solar,  top  6  European  countries,  2010  (in  M€)  

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The  opDmal  spending  mix  

Fischer,  Newell  &  Preonas  2014:    •  OpDmal  mix  is  around  1/2  R&D,  1/2  deployment  for  wind  and  solar  

•  Under  extreme  LBD  assumpDon  public  R&D  spending  can  be  down  to  10%  (solar)  –  15%  (wind),  but  not  less  

Ø Countries  overemphasizing  deployment  

40  

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RecommendaDonsØ A  gradual  ramp  up  of  public  R&D  funding  for  energy  technologies  •  Supply  of  researchers  fixed  in  the  short  run:  growth  in  clean  R&D  budgets  should  be  slow  and  steady,  allowing  Dme  for  training  of  researchers  

Ø Focus  on  technologies  central  to  decarbonisaDon  that    have  a  strong  public  good  component:  energy  efficiency,  CCS,  energy  storage,  smart  grids  

Ø Money  can  come  from  allowance  sales/aucDoning  (with  safety  valve)  to  provide  long-­‐term  certainty  

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Technology  in  the  Paris  agreement  1.  Long  term  commitments  to  fund  domesDc  R&D  2.  CoordinaDon  of  R&D  (IEA,  EU)  –  IncenDves  to  provide  R&D  lower  for  individual  countries  

–  Reduce  duplicaDve  efforts  – Make  emissions  reducDon  agreements  more  sustainable  

3.  Joint  R&D  funding  (ITER)  – However  tension  between  compeDDon  and  collaboraDon  

–  Technology  issues  in  the  negoDaDons  have  seen  very  livle  progress  unDl  now,  prospects  are  low  

42  

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H. Technology development and transfer

General 54. Option 1: All Parties to strengthen cooperative action to promote and enhance technology development and

transfer, including through the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention and through the Financial Mechanism, in order to support the implementation of mitigation and adaptation commitments under this agreement; Option 2: Parties, consistent with the principles and provisions of the Convention, including Article 4, paragraphs 1, 3 and 5, / in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities, to strengthen cooperative action to promote and enhance technology development and transfer and better facilitate the implementation of the Convention, including through the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention and through the Financial Mechanism / by enhancing the provision of support by developed country Parties, in order to support the implementation of mitigation and adaptation commitments under this agreement; Option 3: Parties, consistent with the principles and provisions of the Convention, including Article 4, paragraph 5, reflecting the evolving economic realities, to strengthen cooperative action to promote and enhance technology development and transfer, including through the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention and through the Financial Mechanism.

55. Placeholder: Global goal on enhanced action on technology development and transfer.

Commitments 56. Option 1: Commitments in relation to technology development and transfer to include the following:

56.1 Developed country Parties to undertake steps to address barriers to accessing technology and to establish and strengthen their necessary policy frameworks to facilitate the removal of barriers and enable and accelerate technology development and transfer to developing country Parties; and to leverage enhanced support from the private sector for technology development and transfer to developing country Parties; and to provide financial, human resources, institutional and technical support for technology development and transfer to developing country Parties;

56.2 Developing country Parties, with the support of developed country Parties, to undertake steps to address barriers to accessing technology and to establish and strengthen their national structures, policy frameworks, institutions and capacity, in order to enable and accelerate the endogenous capacity for the absorption, development and transfer of technologies in developing countries / endogenous technology development and transfer, attract investments and enhance country ownership and innovation;

56.3 All Parties, in accordance with the principles of and obligations under the Convention, to establish means to facilitate access to and the deployment of technology, while promoting and rewarding innovation in adaptation and mitigation technologies / environmentally sound technologies:

Option (a):

a. In accordance with Article 4 of Convention, developed country Parties to provide financial resources to address barriers caused by intellectual property rights (IPRs) and facilitate access to and the deployment of technology, including inter alia, by utilizing the Financial Mechanism and/or the establishment of a funding window under the GCF / the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism;

b. An international mechanism on IPRs to be established to facilitate access to and the deployment of technology to developing country Parties;

c. Other arrangements to be established to address IPRs, such as collaborative research and development, shareware, commitments related to humanitarian or preferential licensing, fully paid-up or joint licensing schemes, preferential rates and patent pools.

Option (b): Parties recognize that IPRs create an enabling environment for the promotion of technology innovation in environmentally sound technologies;

Option (c): IPRs are not to be addressed in this agreement.

56.4 Developing country Parties, with the support of developed country Parties, to conduct an assessment of their technology needs, on the basis of national circumstances and priorities, with a view to ensuring nationally

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25

determined and environmentally, economically and socially sound resulting project proposals and to effectively implementing the outcomes of such an assessment supported by developed country Parties, order to support the implementation of this agreement:

x Parties to strengthen the process of technology needs assessment (TNAs) and enhance the implementation of the outcomes of the TNA process;

x Align TNAs more closely with bankable finance projects / Improve TNAs to result in implementable projects; x TNAs could be linked to other processes under the Convention, such as NAMAs and NAPs; TNA process should

be elaborated to address developments arising from the operationalization of this agreement. 56.5 All Parties, enabled by Annex II Parties / led by developed country Parties, to accelerate global collaboration

on the research, development and demonstration of technologies: a. Support, including financial and intellectual support, to accelerate the research, development and demonstration

of technologies, including endogenous technologies, to be provided by developed country Parties to developing country Parties;

b. Modalities for a global collaborative programme on the research, development and demonstration of technologies to be established, attracting and integrating relevant stakeholders.

Option 2: No commitments on technology in the agreement.

Institutional arrangements 57. Institutional arrangements for technology development and transfer under the Convention shall support Parties in

implementing their commitments / contributions under this agreement: 57.1 Anchoring:

Option 1: The Technology Mechanism established under the Convention, including the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), shall serve this agreement by facilitating enhanced action on technology development and transfer in order to achieve the objectives of this agreement;

Option 2: The institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention shall serve this agreement by facilitating enhanced action on technology development and transfer in order to achieve the objectives of this agreement.

57.2 Guidance to and strengthening of the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements:

The governing body may provide further guidance to and/or strengthen the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention serving this agreement, and the guidance provided by the governing body shall not conflict with the guidance provided by the COP.

Option 1: Specific provisions on strengthening:

a. The TEC and the CTCN / Technology Mechanism of the Convention shall support the operationalization and delivery of the commitments related to technology development and transfer in this agreement, under the Convention: x Include provisions on accounting; x Take into account the specific needs of developing countries and countries with special circumstances of Africa,

LDCs and SIDS. b. The Technology Mechanism shall enhance cooperation and synergy with other institutional arrangements

under and outside the Convention and stakeholders, as well as the coherence and effectiveness of technology action and initiatives under the Convention: x Establish linkages between the Technology Mechanism, the Financial Mechanism and capacity-building

institutions; x The Poznan strategic programme on technology transfer to be linked to and/or guided by the Technology

Mechanism; x Provisions or measures related to other technology initiatives or regional centres; x Enhance the role of the private sector to support the implementation of the Technology Mechanism;

The  Lima  AcDon  Plan  

“Commitments  in  relaDon  to  technology  development  and  transfer”  –  Op0on  1  

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The  Lima  AcDon  Plan  

“Commitments  in  relaDon  to  technology  development  and  transfer”  –  Op0on  2  

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25

determined and environmentally, economically and socially sound resulting project proposals and to effectively implementing the outcomes of such an assessment supported by developed country Parties, order to support the implementation of this agreement:

x Parties to strengthen the process of technology needs assessment (TNAs) and enhance the implementation of the outcomes of the TNA process;

x Align TNAs more closely with bankable finance projects / Improve TNAs to result in implementable projects; x TNAs could be linked to other processes under the Convention, such as NAMAs and NAPs; TNA process should

be elaborated to address developments arising from the operationalization of this agreement. 56.5 All Parties, enabled by Annex II Parties / led by developed country Parties, to accelerate global collaboration

on the research, development and demonstration of technologies: a. Support, including financial and intellectual support, to accelerate the research, development and demonstration

of technologies, including endogenous technologies, to be provided by developed country Parties to developing country Parties;

b. Modalities for a global collaborative programme on the research, development and demonstration of technologies to be established, attracting and integrating relevant stakeholders.

Option 2: No commitments on technology in the agreement.

Institutional arrangements 57. Institutional arrangements for technology development and transfer under the Convention shall support Parties in

implementing their commitments / contributions under this agreement: 57.1 Anchoring:

Option 1: The Technology Mechanism established under the Convention, including the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and the Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), shall serve this agreement by facilitating enhanced action on technology development and transfer in order to achieve the objectives of this agreement;

Option 2: The institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention shall serve this agreement by facilitating enhanced action on technology development and transfer in order to achieve the objectives of this agreement.

57.2 Guidance to and strengthening of the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements:

The governing body may provide further guidance to and/or strengthen the Technology Mechanism / institutional arrangements for technology established under the Convention serving this agreement, and the guidance provided by the governing body shall not conflict with the guidance provided by the COP.

Option 1: Specific provisions on strengthening:

a. The TEC and the CTCN / Technology Mechanism of the Convention shall support the operationalization and delivery of the commitments related to technology development and transfer in this agreement, under the Convention: x Include provisions on accounting; x Take into account the specific needs of developing countries and countries with special circumstances of Africa,

LDCs and SIDS. b. The Technology Mechanism shall enhance cooperation and synergy with other institutional arrangements

under and outside the Convention and stakeholders, as well as the coherence and effectiveness of technology action and initiatives under the Convention: x Establish linkages between the Technology Mechanism, the Financial Mechanism and capacity-building

institutions; x The Poznan strategic programme on technology transfer to be linked to and/or guided by the Technology

Mechanism; x Provisions or measures related to other technology initiatives or regional centres; x Enhance the role of the private sector to support the implementation of the Technology Mechanism;

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[email protected]    

hWp://personal.lse.ac.uk/dechezle/