Anthropocenephysical basis of climate spring 2011

• Introduction and UNEP reports• Observations

– Emissions and other natural forcings– Temperature record, SSTs– Precipitation, Sea level, ENSO, Severe storm

s

• Attribution• Models and predictions• Uncertainties

Svante Arrhenius (1859 -1927)

• Swedish• 1884 PhD dissertation electro-

chemistry – did not impress advisor, 150 pages, 85 theses.

• 1896 – Suggested that CO2 could warm the planet, from his work on ice ages. Emission of CO2 may prevent future ice ages.

• 1903 – Nobel prize in chemistry for work in his dissertation. Most of his these would be unquestioned today

Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)Established by WMO and UNEP and confirmed by UN general assembly

December 1988 Five reports issued, the latest in 2013

• 1990 human emissions are increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, resulting increase 0.3 °C per decade 21st century.

• 1995 discernible human influence on global climate

• 2001 surface temperature projected to increase 1.4 - 5.8 C 1990 -2100, and sea level to rise by 0.1 - 0.9 meters

• 2007 (Nobel peace prize) Climate warming unequivocal. Most increase in global temperatures since mid-20th century is (>90%) due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

• The fifth one is underway. 831 authors selected from 3000 nominations. 3-4 reviewers for each chapter.

Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since the pre- industrial era

Watt’s steam engineBegin industrial period

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/20c.html

Liou, 2002, pp 161Atmospheric heating rates

Precipitation patterns have changed

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of

land ice and ice sheets

Sea Levels have risen

The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics

El Niño years

La Niña years

The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years

Weather-related economic damages have increased

Most of the observed warming in the past 50 years is attributable to human activities

Atmosphere

Estimated Fossil Deposits

6.362.3

92.3

60

90

3.3

Plants

Soil

Oceans

750

500

2000

39,000

About 16,0001.6

This is the “greenhouse” problem

Driven by fossil fuel emissions

…and land clearing

The oceans and land vegetation are currently taking up 4.6 Gt C per year

The KP seeks to reduce total emissions by about 0.2

Humans are

perturbing the carbon

cycle

UnitsGt C for stores & Gt C y-1 for fluxes

There are fast and slow processes in the carbon cycle

More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected

Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes

Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC

Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drier with an overall increase projected

Annual mean precipitation change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

2020s

2050s

2080s

Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions & reduction in the tropics and

sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees

Uncertainties

• Changes in atmospheric water vapor

• Changes in cloudiness

• Changes in albedo

• Aerosol particles– Direct effects– Impact on clouds– Black carbon