Anthony Bridges, Deputy Executive Officer, FCMAT

Andrew Prestage, Management Analyst, FCMAT

Ajit Mandal, Software Developer, Proxient Technologies

Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea?Fiscal Projections: A Good Idea?

District Fiscal Problems due to:District Fiscal Problems due to:•Declining EnrollmentDeclining Enrollment•Salary CompensationSalary Compensation•Health & Welfare BenefitsHealth & Welfare Benefits•Changes in State EconomyChanges in State Economy

FCMAT recommendation:FCMAT recommendation:

Delay decisions regarding Collective Bargaining Delay decisions regarding Collective Bargaining or significant ongoing expenditures until after or significant ongoing expenditures until after 1/15/08;1/15/08;• The Governor will soon declare a fiscal The Governor will soon declare a fiscal

emergency;emergency;• Mid-year cuts will be a reality;Mid-year cuts will be a reality;• State of the State message delivered State of the State message delivered

1/8/08;1/8/08;• The Preliminary State Budget will be The Preliminary State Budget will be

released on January 10released on January 10thth..

FCMAT recommendation:FCMAT recommendation:

Regarding multi-year forecasting, the focus has Regarding multi-year forecasting, the focus has to be on the current plus one additional year to be on the current plus one additional year only.only.• The state’s fiscal situation is too volatile and The state’s fiscal situation is too volatile and

unstable to project further.unstable to project further.• Until housing, energy, construction and Until housing, energy, construction and

unemployment begin to move in a more unemployment begin to move in a more positive direction, the state’s revenue positive direction, the state’s revenue position and cash will remain unstable which position and cash will remain unstable which will affect Proposition 98.will affect Proposition 98.

FCMAT recommendation:FCMAT recommendation:

In the creation of a multi-year forecast using BE, In the creation of a multi-year forecast using BE, create a projection using the 4.3% COLA create a projection using the 4.3% COLA (sourced from the SSC Projection Dartboard), (sourced from the SSC Projection Dartboard), and another reflecting a 0% COLA.and another reflecting a 0% COLA.• Produces “what if?” analysis of alternative Produces “what if?” analysis of alternative

scenarios.scenarios.

Historical Perspective:Historical Perspective:

•SACS SoftwareSACS Software

•SpreadsheetsSpreadsheets (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel) (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel)

•MYPMYP by by

BEv2 System Requirements:BEv2 System Requirements: Browser: Browser: Internet ExplorerInternet Explorer Platform: Platform: PC-BasedPC-Based Screen Resolution: Screen Resolution: 1,280 x 1,280 x

1,0241,024¹¹

¹ ¹ This is a minimum resolution setting. Use of This is a minimum resolution setting. Use of higher resolution settings is acceptable. higher resolution settings is acceptable.

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Creating a New Projection:Creating a New Projection:

1.1. Projections are created by Projections are created by uploading SACS data obtained:uploading SACS data obtained:

from your financial system, or;from your financial system, or; from the state’s Financial Reporting from the state’s Financial Reporting

(SACS) software. RL supplemental (SACS) software. RL supplemental form data is uploaded as well (if it form data is uploaded as well (if it has been entered), thereby reducing has been entered), thereby reducing data input.data input.

Step 1:Step 1:To import a new data file,

use this radio button.

To use a previously imported data file, use this radio button.

Your list of available data files will grow over time, and older files will need to be removed.

Use the button to remove data files that are no longer of value.

Step 2:Step 2:Step 2a: Use these options to specify the

data to use as your “Base Year”. The checkbox can be used to also upload “Historical” data. Historical data adds perspective by allowing visual comparison of Base Year data with prior year Estimated Actuals.

Step 2b: Use this dropdown field to specify the “Base Year”.

Step 3:Step 3:Select which fund to

project forward using this dropdown field.

Select how many years to project forward (2, 3, 4 or 5)

Step 4:Step 4:

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The Button Bar provides access to frequently used screens.The Navigation Tree

provides access to frequently used screens.

ENR ADA

Staff

Projection Variables

RL $

Other Revs, Exp’s.

Salary Forecaster

Salaries & Benefits

Ending Fund Balance

Fully Integrated System…Fully Integrated System…

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Change the forecasting period or projection description.

This toolbar offers:Go

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Object Save Export to

Excel Export to

PDF Graphs Help Small Font Medium Font Large Font

A Five Minute Process…A Five Minute Process…

Steps:Steps:

Upload your SACS DataUpload your SACS Data

Check your Projection RulesCheck your Projection Rules

Check your Enrollment & ADACheck your Enrollment & ADA

Review the Salary ForecasterReview the Salary Forecaster

Check the RL CalculationCheck the RL Calculation

Balance the Restricted ResourcesBalance the Restricted Resources

Print ReportsPrint Reports

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Values for these rules are obtained from the SSC Projection Dartboard.

Updates are made each time a new Dartboard is released.

How Rules WorkHow Rules WorkConsumer Price IndexConsumer Price Index (CPI) (CPI) rule settingsrule settings::

Base YearBase Year RuleRule ProjYr1ProjYr1 ProjYr2ProjYr2

ObjectObject DescriptionDescription 2006-072006-07 NameName 2007-082007-08 2008-092008-09

41004100 Texts/MaterialsTexts/Materials100,000100,000 CPICPI 103,000103,000 105,575105,575

BE looks up the value of the Projection Rule that has been applied for ProjYr1.

BE applies the 3% increase to the Base Year and places the result in the 1st projected year.

BE applies the 2.5% increase to ProjYr1 and places the result in the 2nd projected year.

BE looks up the value of the Projection Rule that has been applied for ProjYr2.

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The Enr/ADA/Staffing area is divided into 2 screens:

5 years of state-reported CBEDS data is loaded automatically. Enrollment is projected based on the Weighted Moving Cohort Progression model.

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The ability to “share” The ability to “share” projectionsprojections Separates BEv2 as an information sharing, planning, and collaboration resource; Can be “be “R/OR/O” or;” or; Can be “Can be “R/WR/W”.”.

COE creates projection(s) for each district using SACS data and shares the projection(s) with district personnel for review and comment.

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District OfficeDistrict Office

District creates projection(s) and when ready, shares the projection(s) with COE personnel for review and comment.

County OfficeCounty Office

End – Thank YouEnd – Thank You