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ANNUAL FORECAST 2011

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ANNUAL FORECAST 2011

The year 2011 is one of preparation and

postponement, as Washington, Beijing and

Moscow — among several others — are

already looking to elections and leadership

changes in 2012. The uncertainty of next year affects the actions of this year.

One of the biggest questions in 2011

concerns Iraq. The United States is

officially obligated to complete its

withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq by the end of this year, a move that could reshape the balance

of regional power. If the United States withdraws, it leaves Iran the single most powerful conventional

force in the region, and leaves Iraq open to Iranian domination. The ripple effect alters the sense of

security for the Saudis and other Arab regimes, forcing them to accommodate a more powerful Iran.

This effectively ends the balance of power in the Gulf region, something that Washington can little accept.

If Washington does not carry out a meaningful withdrawal, then Iran retains the option of stirring up

militias and unrest in Iraq, increasing conflict and the attendant U.S. casualties, all while the U.S.

presidential election season begins ramping up. From the political perspective, this is not acceptable.

From the geopolitical perspective, allowing Iran (or any other single power) to dominate the region is

unacceptable. We think the latter will take precedence over the former, and the United States will seek

to retain a strong presence in Iraq rather than withdraw from the region. However, the United States is not likely to carry out any major military action against Iran.

That leaves one path if the United States wants to get out of Iraq at some future point: an

accommodation (even if quiet) with Iran to ensure both U.S. and Iranian interests. While it is not likely

to be very public, we expect a significant increase in U.S.-Iranian discussions this year toward this

end.

While Washington looks to extricate itself from Iraq without leaving power in the region unbalanced,

farther east China is struggling with its own economic imbalances. STRATFOR has long been perceived

as bearish on the Chinese economy. We are less bearish than realistic, and the reality is that the

longer an economic miracle continues to be miraculous, the more likely it is to end its amazing run.

We cannot help but notice the similarities between China and its East Asian economic predecessors:

Japan, South Korea and the Southeast Asian “Tigers.” The Chinese have shown great resilience, but

the global economic crisis revealed the weaknesses of China’s export-based model. While government

investment now makes up the lion’s share of the Chinese economy, Beijing is walking a very difficult path between rampant inflation and rapid economic slowing.

As China’s leaders search for a solution and try to avoid the social consequences of a slip in either

direction, they are also focused on the next major generational leadership transition, slated to begin in

2012. This discourages any radical or daring economic policies, and stability will remain the watchword

as the politicians jockey for position. But given the status of the Chinese economy, and the continued

effects internationally of the global slowdown, daring policies and ideas are perhaps what China needs.

While Beijing is likely to procrastinate in making any radical economic policy changes, and thus avoid

the likely short-term chaos that could entail, the longer the leaders delay fundamental action, the worse things may be when the system starts to unravel.

Meanwhile, Russia will continue to attempt to roll back U.S. influence in Eurasia and solidify its own.

Russia has largely completed its retrenchment to the borders of the former Soviet Union, with the

notable exception of the Baltic states and to a lesser extent the Caucasus, and Moscow is now secure

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enough to shift from its more assertive stance to one that appears more conciliatory. This new

strategy will play to all its relationships around the world, but will be effective in moving Russia’s

influence farther beyond its former Soviet sphere and into Europe — where the United States has been

dominant since the end of the Cold War. Russia’s focus this year is to mold understandings with states

like the Baltics, while entrenching its strong relationship with Germany. Moscow knows that its time to

act freely is ticking down as Russia watches the United States wrap up some of its commitments in the

Middle East, but Moscow will also be looking internally, as the political elite position themselves ahead of the 2012 elections.

Middle East/South Asia

The most important question in the Persian

Gulf is the degree to which the United

States will draw down its forces in the

region. The answer to this question determines the region’s geopolitical reality.

Other than the United States, the greatest

military power in the Persian Gulf region is

Iran. Whether or not Iran acquires nuclear

weapons, it is the major conventional

power. Should the United States remove

all effective military force in Iraq and limit

its forces in Kuwait, two things would

happen. First, Iraq would fall under Iranian

domination. Second, the states on the

Arabian Peninsula would have to

accommodate the new balance of power, making concessions to Iranian interests.

Should the United States not remove its

forces from the region, Iran would have

the option of launching guerrilla operations

against U.S. forces, using its surrogates in

Iraq. That would escalate casualties in Iraq

at a time when the U.S. presidential campaign would be getting under way.

The core prediction STRATFOR needs to make for the region, therefore, is whether the United States

will withdraw its forces. We do not believe a withdrawal is likely in 2011. While a new Iranian-

sponsored insurgency is a possibility, a dramatic shift in the balance of power due to withdrawal would

be a certainty. Pressure on the United States from Saudi Arabia and its allies in Iraq not to withdraw

will be heavy, so the United States will keep enough forces in Iraq to block Iran. STRATFOR expects this will lead to greater instability in Iraq, but the United States will be prepared to pay that price.

The chance of surgical strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities is very low, inasmuch as the Iranian

response would be to attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. While it is possible for the U.S. Navy to

keep the strait clear, it cannot control the market reaction to military activity there. The consequences

of failure for the global economy would be enormous and too great a risk without a much broader war

designed to destroy Iran’s conventional forces (naval, air and land) from the air. This could be done,

but it would take many months and also run huge risks.

Given that the United States will not completely withdraw and will not launch a major military strike

unless pressed by unforeseen circumstances, it is likely that the United States will reach out to Iran —

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either the government or significant factions within it — in order to reach some sort of accommodation

guaranteeing U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf and Iranian interests in Iraq. These talks will likely be a

continuation of secret talks held in the past, and if an accommodation is reached, it might be informal in order to minimize political repercussions in both countries.

In Turkey, 2011 is an election year, with parliamentary elections scheduled for June. The ruling Justice

and Development Party (AKP) is unlikely to lose the election overall, but the vote will highlight the

core secular-religious divide within Turkey. As it seeks to consolidate itself at home, the AKP in 2011

will work toward a more coherent foreign policy, trying to learn from past efforts that had unexpected results.

Egypt begins the year with the successors of ailing 82-year-old Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak at

odds over the pending transfer of power. The various factions — both in his National Democratic Party

and the army — do not agree on who can best ensure regime stability and policy continuity once

Mubarak is no longer in a position to lead. Another complication is that the presidential election is

scheduled for September, and it is not clear whether Mubarak will run for a sixth five-year term. While

the various elements that make up the state will be busy trying to reach a consensus on how best to

navigate the succession issue, several political and militant forces active in Egypt will be trying to take

advantage of the historic opportunity the transition presents. While the opponents of the regime —

both those who seek change via constitutional means and those who prefer extra-constitutional

methods — are not yet organized enough, the rifts within the government also create vulnerabilities

for Egypt, where regime change will have profound implications for the region and beyond.

In Israel, concerns remain about Hezbollah, the most serious threat Israel faces. But Hezbollah is

focused on matters in Lebanon, and Syria has its own interests at stake, so another major Israel-

Hezbollah war in 2011 is unlikely. In Gaza, on Israel’s southern flank, things are not quite as stable.

Hamas has an interest in maintaining a short-term truce with Israel, but pressure from competing

Islamist movements and Israel’s ongoing efforts to prevent Hamas from strengthening will likely lead to clashes within the year, though not to the extent seen in 2008-2009.

In Afghanistan, the U.S.-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) saw some successes on the

battlefield in 2010, and more can be expected in the year ahead. However, the ISAF has neither the

troop strength nor the staying power to truly defeat the Taliban through military force alone. The

success or failure of the counterinsurgency-focused strategy therefore rests not only on the military

degradation of the Taliban, but also on the ability to compel the Taliban to negotiate some degree of

political accommodation. Some movement toward a negotiated settlement this year is possible, and

Pakistan will try to steer Washington toward talks (in the hopes that Islamabad will be able to

influence the eventual outcome of those talks), but a comprehensive settlement in 2011 seems unlikely at this point.

The Global Economy

The United States will experience moderate to strong growth in 2011. Unlike in other major

economies, consumer activity comprises the bulk of the U.S. system — some $10 trillion of the $14

trillion total. That $10 trillion is approximately half of the global consumer market. (The combined

BRIC states — Brazil, Russia, India and China — account for less than one-third of that amount). As

the U.S. consumer goes, so goes the world.

When measuring what the U.S. consumer is going to do, STRATFOR consults three sets of data: first-

time unemployment claims (our preferred method for evaluating current employment trends), retail

sales (the actual consumer’s track record), and inventory builds (an indicator of whether or not

wholesalers and retailers will be placing new orders, which in turn would require more hires). As 2011

begins, the first two figures look favorable to economic growth, while the last indicates employment may be slow to recover.

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STRATFOR pays close attention to two other measures on the economy: The S&P 500 Index indicates

investors’ risk appetite, and total bank credit as made available by the U.S. Federal Reserve indicates

how functional the financial system is. Because the 2008-2009 recession was financial in origin,

STRATFOR pays particular attention to what investors and banks are doing and thinking. Both measures are strongly positive as 2011 begins.

But while the United States may be gearing up for a strong performance, the same is not true elsewhere in the world.

Europe faces a structural problem. The euro was designed for and by the Germans, who want a strong

currency and high interest rates to keep inflation in check and to attract the capital required to

maximize their high value-added system of first-rate education and infrastructure. The Southern

Europeans, in contrast, have economies that do not add nearly as much value. They must remain price

competitive to generate growth, and the only reliable means they have of doing that is to sport a weak

currency. Put simply, people will pay more for a German car, but they will only pay so much for a Spanish apple.

Yet these economies (and others) are enmeshed into the eurozone. The financial crisis is depressing

the euro, which would normally help the southern European states, but Germany’s presence in the

eurozone is acting as a sort of life preserver, limiting how far the common currency can sink. The

result is a midground currency, prevented from falling to levels that would actually stimulate the south

while holding at weaker levels that make the already competitive Germans hypercompetitive. The

result will be growth bifurcation, with the Germans experiencing their fastest growth in a generation,

and Southern Europe — the region that needs growth the most to emerge from the debt maelstrom — mired in recession.

Consequently, the financial crisis that started sweeping Europe in 2010 is far from over, and

STRATFOR forecasts that more states will join Greece and Ireland in the bailout line in 2011. In one bit

of good news for the Europeans, STRATFOR projects that the systems the Europeans built in 2010 to

handle the financial crisis will prove sufficient to manage Portugal, Belgium, Spain and Austria, the four states facing the highest likelihood of bailouts, respectively.

In Asia the picture is more familiar. Japan has largely removed itself from the scene. Japan’s

population has aged to such a degree that consumption is expected to shrink every year from now on,

while its national budget is now majority funded by deficit spending. Luckily for the rest of the world,

Japan’s debt is held almost entirely at home, and its economy is the least exposed to the international system of any advanced nation. Japan will rot, but it will rot in seclusion.

In China, nearly every government throughout its history has at some point been brought down by

social unrest of some kind. Recently, Beijing was concerned that rolling back stimulus policies enacted

in late 2008 would put economic growth at risk, and with it employment. STRATFOR has learned that,

given these circumstances, Beijing has decided to keep that stimulus intact. This will solve the

employment problem, but it comes at the certain price of higher inflation. China’s challenge in 2011

will be to maintain sufficient services and subsidies to keep social forces in check at a time when the

country’s economic model will exacerbate inflationary problems.

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Former Soviet Union

Russia’s consolidation of influence in the

former Soviet Union is nearly complete,

and in 2011, Moscow will feel secure

enough in its position to shift from a policy

of confrontation with the West to one

characterized, at least in part, by a more

cooperative engagement. Russia will play a

double game, ensuring it can reap benefits

from having warm relations with countries

— such as investment and economic ties —

while keeping pressure on those same

countries for political reasons.

The most complex relationship will be with the United States, as many outstanding issues remain

between the two powers. However, Russia knows that the United States is still bogged down in the Middle East and South Asia, so there is no need for a unilaterally aggressive push on Washington.

The most productive relationship will be with Germany. Moscow and Berlin will strengthen their ties

politically, economically and financially in the new year. But, as throughout history, their inherent

mistrust for one another will motivate them to prepare to pressure each other if needed in the years beyond 2011.

Moscow’s strategy shift will also affect how Russia interacts with its former Soviet states. In 2010,

Russia consolidated its control over Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, while strengthening

its influence over Armenia and Tajikistan. Russia knows that it broadly dominates the countries and

can now move more freely in and out of them — and allow the states more leeway, though within Russia’s constraints.

There are still three regions in which Russia has not solidified its influence and thus will be more

assertive: Moldova, the independently minded Caucasus states of Georgia and Azerbaijan, and the

Baltics. Of these, Russia is furthest along with Moldova, and changing relations with Georgia can

largely be left for another day. Russia’s strategy toward the Baltics is changing, and Moscow is

attempting to work its way into each of the Baltic states on multiple levels — politically, economically,

financially and socially. Russia knows that it will not be able to pull these countries away from their

alliances in NATO or the European Union, but it wants to have some influence over their foreign policy.

Russia will be more successful in this new strategy in the Baltic state of Latvia and to a lesser degree in Estonia, while Lithuania will be more challenging.

Domestically, Russia is preparing for parliamentary elections at the end of 2011 and the highly

anticipated presidential election in 2012. Traditionally, in the lead-up to an election, the Kremlin leader

— currently Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin — shakes things up by replacing key powerful

figures in the country. This time, Putin has asserted that his power over the Kremlin is strong enough

that he will not need such a reshuffling, but many in the country’s elite will still scramble to secure

their positions or attempt to gain better ones. Should President Dmitri Medvedev’s supporters move to

break from Putin’s grip, it could trigger another clampdown on the country politically and socially,

similar to the one seen in the mid-2000s. But whether Putin decides to run again as president or remain prime minister, his control over Russia remains secure.

In four of the Central Asian states, a series of unrelated trends will intensify in 2011, creating potential

instability that could make the region vulnerable to one or more crises. In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan,

succession crises are looming, and the political elite are struggling to hold or gain power. In both

Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, ethnic, religious and regional tensions are turning violent. This has been

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exacerbated by the return of militants who have been fighting in Afghanistan for the past eight years.

Both countries have called on Russia to stabilize their security situations. Moscow will use these

requests to increase its presence in the region militarily, but will hold back from getting directly involved in the fighting.

In these four countries, Russia’s handling of the situation is the important factor. In 2011, Moscow will

ensure that all its pieces are in place — whether political influence or a military presence — in order to keep control (and dominance) over the region.

East Asia

The most important question for the Asia

Pacific region is whether China’s economy

will slow down abruptly in 2011. Though

growth may slow, STRATFOR does not

anticipate it to collapse beneath the

government’s target level. This will require

a tightrope walk between excessive

inflation on one side and drastic slowing on

the other. China’s leaders want a smooth

transition to the next generation of leaders

in 2012, and do not want the economy to

collapse on their watch. They will err on

the side of higher inflation, which could exacerbate social troubles, but Beijing is betting this will remain manageable.

China’s exports recovered in 2010 from the lows of 2009, but export growth is expected to slow in

2011. Wages, energy and utilities costs are rising; the government is letting the currency slowly

appreciate; workers are demanding better conditions and more compensation while the demographic

advantage and the amount of new migrant labor entering markets is slowing. All of these processes

will continue in 2011 to the detriment of export sector stability. Already some manufacturers of cheap

goods are operating at a loss. Reports of loss-making enterprises are not yet widespread, but they

indicate the real strains from rising costs that will worsen in 2011. However, as long as the American recovery continues and there are no other big external shocks, the export sector will not collapse.

China’s primary hope for maintaining targeted growth rates is investment. Since 2008, Beijing has

relied on government spending packages and, most important, gargantuan helpings of bank loans to

drive growth. The central government will continue these stimulus policies in 2011. Meanwhile, Beijing

will allow banks to continue high levels of lending, and the banks appear just capable of surging credit

for another year. Deposits are still growing and outnumber loans, several major banks raised capital in

2010, and Beijing has toughened regulatory requirements to increase capital adequacy, reserves and

bad loan provisions. Nevertheless the credit boom cannot last much longer, and the sector is sitting on

a volcano of new non-performing loans worth at least $900 billion. Without credible reform in lending

practices, continued high levels of lending in China will increase systemic financial risks as companies

take out new loans to roll over bad debt and invest in inefficient or speculative projects, while adding

to inflation and compounding the sector’s future burdens. Though a banking crisis may be averted in 2011, it cannot be averted for long.

With Beijing willing to use government investment and bank lending to avoid a deep slowdown,

inflation will rise and cause economic and socio-political problems in 2011, generating outbursts of

social discontent along the lines of previous inflationary periods, such as 2007-2008, or even,

conceivably, 1989. Inflation is hitting all the essential commodities, and STRATFOR sources perceive

unusually high levels of social frustration from Beijing to Hong Kong. The government will use social

policies, price controls and subsidies to alleviate the problem, but will not be able to prevent major

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incidents of unrest. Security forces are capable of dealing with protests and riots, but such incidents will reveal the depth of the problems the country faces.

Internationally, China will continue playing a more assertive role. Beijing will accelerate its foreign

resource acquisition and outward investment strategy. It will continue pursuing large infrastructure

projects in border areas and in peripheral countries despite resulting tensions with India and Southeast

Asian states. It will increase maritime patrols in its neighboring seas and maintain a hard-line position

on territorial and sovereignty disputes, increasing the risk of clashes with Japan, Vietnam, South Korea

and others. China’s military modernization will continue to focus on areas like anti-access and area

denial and cyber capabilities, and the lack of transparency will continue to feed foreign suspicions.

China’s trade disputes with other nations — especially the United States — will worsen, though Beijing

will make token policy changes and increase imports to reduce political friction. The United States will

make bigger threats of imposing concrete trade measures against China as the year progresses, taking

at least symbolic action, perhaps toward the end of the year as the 2012 election campaign starts to warm up.

North Korea’s behavior in 2010 appeared off the charts — Pyongyang was accused of sinking a South

Korean navy ship and killed South Korean civilians during the shelling of a South Korean-controlled

island south of the Northern Limit Line, a maritime border the North refuses to formally recognize. In

the past two decades, North Korea has demonstrated a clear pattern of escalating tensions with the

South, with its neighbors and with the United States as a precursor to negotiations for economic

benefits. These tensions centered on nuclear and missile developments, but not on outright aggression

against the South — until 2010. Pyongyang appears to have made several very calculated decisions:

First, that nuclear tests and missile launches no longer created the sense of uncertainty and crisis

necessary to force the United States and South Korea into negotiations and concessions; second, that

it had China’s cover; and third, that Seoul and Washington would not respond militarily to a more

direct form of North Korean provocation. All indications suggest that Pyongyang bet correctly, and it is

looking like 2011 will see a return to the more managed relations with North Korea seen a decade ago,

barring a major domestic disagreement among the North Korean elite over Kim Jong Il’s succession plans.

The United States will continue its slow re-engagement with the region, providing an opportunity for

China’s neighbors to hedge against it. Washington will support greater coordination among Japan,

South Korea and Australia (as well as India) on regional security and economic development in

Southeast Asia, increasing competition with China. The United States will build or rebuild ties with

partners like Indonesia and Vietnam and become more active in multilateral groups, including the East

Asia Summit and the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will try to balance both China and the United States.

Europe

Europe continues to deal with the

economic and political ramifications of its

economic problems. At the center is

Germany, the most significant European

power in 2011. Berlin will continue to press

the rest of Europe to accept its point of

view on fiscal matters, using the ongoing

economic crisis as an opportunity to

tighten the eurozone’s existing economic

rules and to introduce new ones. Germany

is pursuing three key initiatives: the

development of a permanent bailout and

sovereign debt restructuring mechanism

(largely freeing Germany from having to bail out other eurozone members in the future); the

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acceptance of tougher monitoring, implementation and enforcement of eurozone fiscal rules; and continued adherence to German-designed austerity measures among eurozone members.

Berlin’s assertiveness will continue to breed resentment within other eurozone states. Those states will

feel the pinch of austerity measures, but the segments of the population being affected the most

across the board are the youth, foreigners and the construction sector. These are segments that,

despite growing violence on the streets of Europe, have been and will continue to be ignored. Barring

an unprecedented outbreak of violence, the lack of acceptable political — and economic — alternatives

to the European Union and the shadow of economic crisis will keep Europe’s capitals from any fundamental break with Germany in 2011.

If anyone breaks the line on austerity, it will be the Irish and the Greeks. In Ireland, elections in the

first quarter could bring anti-bailout or anti-austerity forces into power. Ireland has said “no” to

Europe twice before on EU treaties, and it could be a wrench in Berlin’s plans again. In Greece, Athens

is dealing with historically high unemployment (unlike the Spanish and Irish, who have seen much

worse as recently as 15 years ago) and another year of recession. Prime Minister George Papandreou

is holding on to an ever-smaller majority in the parliament as his party’s lawmakers jump ship.

However, Greece and Ireland are both already under EU bailout mechanisms. Other states may see

changes in government (Spain, Portugal and Italy being prime candidates), but leadership change will

not mean policy change. Germany would only be truly challenged if one of the large states — France,

Spain or Italy — broke with it on austerity and new rules, and there is no indication that such a

development will happen in 2011.

Ultimately, Germany will find resistance in Europe. This will first manifest in the loss of legitimacy for

European political elites, both center-left and center-right. The year 2011 will bring greater electoral

success to nontraditional and nationalist parties in both local and national elections, as well as an

increase in protests and street violence among the most disaffected segment of society, the youth.

Elites in power will seek to counter this trend by drawing attention away from economic issues and to issues such as crime, security from terrorism and anti-immigrant rhetoric and policy.

The country where elites are in most trouble is in fact Germany. Berlin has not yet made the case to

its own population for Germany’s central role in Europe, and why Germany needs to bail out its

neighbors when it has its own economic troubles. In large part this is because if Berlin were to make

this case domestically, laying out the advantages Germany gains from the eurozone, it would further

breed resentment abroad. With seven state elections in 2011 — four in a short period in February and

March — the first evidence of nontraditional political forces’ coming to the forefront could be in

Germany. This could accelerate if Berlin is also called upon to rescue one of the other troubled economies within this intense electoral period in the first quarter.

Central Europe will have its own issues to deal with in 2011. With the United States preoccupied in the

Middle East, Russia making a push into the Baltic states and consolidating its periphery, and Berlin and

Moscow further entrenching their relationship, Central Europe will continue to see its current security

arrangements — via NATO and Europe — as insufficient. STRATFOR expects the Central European

states to look to alternatives in terms of security, whether with the Nordic countries, specifically

Sweden, or the United Kingdom, or with each other via forums such as the Visegrad Group. But with

Washington distracted and unprepared to re-engage in the region, the Central Europeans might not

have a choice in making their own arrangements with Russia, which could mean concessions and a more accommodating attitude, at least for the next 12 months.

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Latin America

Economic decay, runaway corruption and

political uncertainty will define Venezuela

in the year ahead. Venezuelan President

Hugo Chavez will resort to more creative

and forceful means to expand his executive

authority and muzzle dissent, but

managing threats to his hold on power will

become more difficult and more complex,

especially considering Venezuela’s growing

struggle to maintain steady oil production

and the country’s prolonged electricity

crisis.

The Venezuelan government will thus become increasingly reliant on its allies — namely China, Cuba

and, to a lesser extent, Iran and Russia — to stave off a collapse. However, Chavez is facing the

developing challenge of a potential clash of interests among those allies. China, Cuba and Russia, for

example, will attempt to place limits on Venezuela’s relationship with Iran in the interest of managing

their own affairs with the United States. Though doubts will rise over the sustainability of the

Venezuelan government and economy, the Chavez government likely will not be toppled as long as oil prices allow Caracas to maintain a high rate of public spending.

Cuba, meanwhile, intends to lay off or reshuffle more than half a million state workers (10 percent of

the island’s work force) by March 2011 while attempting to build up a fledgling private sector to absorb

the labor. There are signs that Fidel and Raul Castro have reached a political consensus over the

reforms and are serious about easing the heavy burden on the state out of sheer economic

desperation. However, this will be a year of immense struggle for Cuba, especially as many of the new

privately owned or cooperative businesses are expected to fail due to their lack of resources and

experience and because of a shortage of foreign capital.

Cuba will continue to send positive, albeit measured, political signals in an attempt to make

investment in the island more politically palatable to foreigners, but no drastic political reforms are

expected. Cuba is headed for a major political change, but STRATFOR does not see that happening in

2011. Such a change will take time to develop and will entail a great deal of pain inflicted on the

Cuban economy. We suspect that those eyeing a change in the Cuban leadership would rather the

Castros take the fall for the economic hardships to be endured during this slow process. Meanwhile,

relations between Cuba and Venezuela are likely to become more strained. With Cuba exerting

significant influence over Venezuela’s security apparatus and Havana needing capital that Venezuela

may not be able to provide in Cuba’s time of need, the potential for quiet tension between the two remains.

The year 2011 will be one mostly of continuity for an emergent Brazil as the country devotes much of

its attention to internal development. Specifically, Brazil’s focus will be absorbed by problematic

currency gains, developing its pre-salt oil fields and internal security. The real gained 108 percent

during President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s time in office, hitting domestic industry. The country is also

facing investment needs of around $220 billion over the next five years for the offshore pre-salt oil

fields, on which the country’s geopolitical ambitions have been hinged. Crackdowns on select favelas in

Rio de Janeiro are likely to continue this year, but constraints on resources and time (with the 2014 World Cup approaching) will hamper this initiative.

In the foreign policy sphere, Brazil will keep a measured distance from the United States as a means

of asserting its own authority in the region while gradually building up primarily economic influence in

the South American states, particularly Paraguay. Brazil is still in the very early stages of achieving

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regional prominence and will feel more comfortable making mostly superficial moves on issues far removed from the South American continent than appearing to intrude in its neighbors’ affairs.

In Mexico, the next year will be critical for the ruling National Action Party (PAN) and its prospects for

the 2012 elections. Logic dictates that for the PAN to have a reasonable chance at staving off an

Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) comeback, the level of cartel violence must come down to

politically acceptable levels. Though serious attempts will be made, STRATFOR does not see Mexican

President Felipe Calderon and the PAN making meaningful progress toward this end. If there is a

measurable reduction in overall cartel violence, it will be the result of inter-cartel rivalries playing out

between the two current dominant cartels — the Sinaloa Federation and Los Zetas — and their regional rivals, mostly independently from the Mexican government’s operations.

Mexican authorities will devote considerable resources to the Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon regions, and

these operations are more likely to escalate tensions between the Gulf cartel and Los Zetas than to

reduce violence in these areas. Political stagnation will meanwhile become more severe as Mexico’s

election draws closer, with parties forming alliances and the PRI taking more interest in making the PAN look as ineffectual as possible on most issues.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa’s year begins with

important votes in Sudan and Nigeria.

A referendum on Southern Sudanese

independence takes place in January.

However, if the referendum passes, the

south cannot declare independence until

July. Thus, Southern Sudan will be in a

period of legal limbo for the first half of the

year. These months will be defined by

extremely contentious negotiations

between north and south, centered

primarily on oil revenue sharing. Khartoum

will grudgingly accept the results of the referendum, and both sides will criticize each other for improprieties during the voter registration period and polling.

The south knows it must placate Khartoum in the short term, and it will be forced to make concessions

on its share of oil revenues during the negotiations. Juba will also seek to discuss other options for oil

exports in the future during the year, with Uganda and Kenya playing a significant role in those talks.

However, any new pipeline is at least a decade away. This will reinforce Khartoum and Juba’s mutual dependency in 2011.

The northern and southern Sudanese governments will maintain a heightened military alert on the

border, and small clashes are not unexpected. Minor provocations on either side could spark a larger

conflict, and while neither side’s leadership wants this to happen, Sudan will be an especially tense

place all year.

Nigeria will hold national elections during the first half of the year, with a new government inaugurated

about a month after elections are held. Candidates for the presidency and other political offices will be

determined around mid-January, when party primaries are to be held. Within the ruling People’s

Democratic Party (PDP), it is a race between President Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from the oil-rich

Niger Delta in the south, and the man northern politicians are calling the consensus northerner

candidate, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, for the party’s nomination. Both candidates are wooing PDP politicians throughout the country.

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© 2011 STRATFOR Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com

Extensive intra-party negotiations and backroom deals will occupy the Nigerian government during

primary season, the election campaign and after the inauguration, all as a matter of managing power-

sharing expectations that could lead to violence. But the cash disbursed and the patronage deployed

as part of the campaign will keep most stakeholders subdued even if their preferred candidate does

not win. This means the event will not turn into a national crisis, and the Niger Delta region is likely to remain relatively calm this year.

The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) will see a few thousand new peacekeepers added in

2011, continuing its slow buildup (the contingent is currently 8,000 strong). Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops will receive incremental training to increase their capabilities.

This year will see attention focused on securing Mogadishu as well as increased political recognition of

Somaliland and Puntland, two semi-autonomous regions in northern Somalia. But AMISOM and the

TFG will still not be equipped or mandated to launch a definitive offensive against al Shabaab. Al

Shabaab will not be defeated or even fully ejected from Mogadishu, let alone attacked meaningfully in its core area of operations in southern Somalia.

The TFG’s mandate might not be renewed after it expires in August, if the government fails to achieve

gains in socio-economic governance in Mogadishu amid an improved security environment. Even if

there is no TFG in Mogadishu, though, there will still be a governmental presence of some sort to

deliver technical and administrative services and to operate public infrastructure (such as the international airport and seaport).

South Africa will carry into 2011 a predominantly cooperative relationship with countries in the

southern African region, notably Angola. Pretoria will use that cooperation to gain regional influence.

Negotiations with Angola over energy and investment deals agreed to in principle during Angolan

President Eduardo dos Santos’ visit to South Africa at the end of 2010 will continue during the first half

of 2011, with both governments sorting through the details of — and inserting controls over — this

cooperation. Relations between the two governments will be superficially friendly, but privately

guarded and dealt with largely through the presidents’ personal envoys. Beyond the commercial and

regional influence interests Pretoria holds in Angola, the South African government will push for

infrastructure development initiatives with other southern and central African countries to emerge as the dominant power in the southern half of Africa.

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© 2011 STRATFOR Austin, TX 78701 Tel: 1-512-744-4300 www.stratfor.com

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