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Annex 1: Summary of national academic collaboration Met Office Contact University Notes / recent progress Atmospheric Processes and Parameterisations 1. Flow over hills model (BLASIUS) Helen Wells Leeds, Reading, Aberystwyth, Imperial College, Durham 2. Large eddy / cloud resolving model (LEM/CRM) Ben Shipway Reading, Leeds, Imperial College, UMIST and Aberystwyth Workshops held with Leeds have led to significant development of the LEM microphysics scheme and collaboration on related scientific issues. Corrections and developments are continued to be fed into our model from several Universities. New surface scheme developments in BLASIUS code (Leeds) used for studies of cold pooling in valleys. 3. Boundary-layer flow in complex terrain. Simon Vosper, Andy Brown, Jeremy Price Leeds, Salford, Imperial Andrew Ross, Stephen Mobbs, Collaborative work in this area has led to developments of the BLASIUS code (forest canopies and turbulence closure schemes). The Met Office has contributed to new field campaign on Isle of Arran (autumn 2006) through observations and BLASIUS modelling support. A new collaborative field campaign (COLPEX), aimed at studying the behaviour of the boundary-layer over complex terrain, is planned for the winters of 2008/9 and 2009/10. Of specific interest is the formation of cold-pools in valleys which form under stable night-time conditions. The project will lead to evaluation and development of the UM at high resolution (1.5 km and finer) and lead to the development of new NWP post processing tools for temperature in complex terrain. 4. Hazardous winds in orographic regions Simon Vosper Peter Sheridan Leeds Stephen Mobbs Ralph Burton Collaborative participation (with BAe146 aircraft) in T-REX took place in March-April 2006. Resulting observational and modelling activities have contributed to improved configurations of the UM at high resolution and better understanding of processes which lead to hazardous winds. Ongoing work will lead to the development of diagnostics for turbulence in the lee of hills and mountains. 5. Chemical and Aerosol Transport in Jon Petch Leeds Gerry Devine with The sulphur cycle used in the UM is now fully operational in the Met Office LEM. Comparison work with 1

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Annex 1: Summary of national academic collaboration Met Office

Contact University Notes / recent progress

Atmospheric Processes and Parameterisations

1. Flow over hills model (BLASIUS)

Helen Wells Leeds, Reading, Aberystwyth, Imperial College, Durham

2. Large eddy / cloud resolving model (LEM/CRM)

Ben Shipway Reading, Leeds, Imperial College, UMIST and Aberystwyth

Workshops held with Leeds have led to significant development of the LEM microphysics scheme and collaboration on related scientific issues. Corrections and developments are continued to be fed into our model from several Universities.

New surface scheme developments in BLASIUS code (Leeds) used for studies of cold pooling in valleys.

3. Boundary-layer flow in complex terrain.

Simon Vosper, Andy Brown, Jeremy Price

Leeds, Salford, Imperial

Andrew Ross, Stephen Mobbs,

Collaborative work in this area has led to developments of the BLASIUS code (forest canopies and turbulence closure schemes). The Met Office has contributed to new field campaign on Isle of Arran (autumn 2006) through observations and BLASIUS modelling support.

A new collaborative field campaign (COLPEX), aimed at studying the behaviour of the boundary-layer over complex terrain, is planned for the winters of 2008/9 and 2009/10. Of specific interest is the formation of cold-pools in valleys which form under stable night-time conditions. The project will lead to evaluation and development of the UM at high resolution (1.5 km and finer) and lead to the development of new NWP post processing tools for temperature in complex terrain.

4. Hazardous winds in orographic regions

Simon Vosper

Peter Sheridan

Leeds

Stephen Mobbs

Ralph Burton

Collaborative participation (with BAe146 aircraft) in T-REX took place in March-April 2006. Resulting observational and modelling activities have contributed to improved configurations of the UM at high resolution and better understanding of processes which lead to hazardous winds. Ongoing work will lead to the development of diagnostics for turbulence in the lee of hills and mountains.

5. Chemical and Aerosol Transport in

Jon Petch Leeds

Gerry Devine with

The sulphur cycle used in the UM is now fully operational in the Met Office LEM. Comparison work with

1

Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

Convective Clouds Doug Parker and Ken Carslaw

the single-column version of the UM has also been carried out.

6. Modelling of tropical convection (e.g. GCSS deep convection WG case 5, CASCADE)

Jon Petch, Steve Derbyshire, Paul Field

Reading, Leeds, UEA

A.Slingo, Steve Woolnough

Ongoing evaluation of model performance.

Met Office now a funded participant in NERC CASCADE project. UM hi-res configurations now being tested in various institutions

7. Non-Equilibrium Convection

Steve Derbyshire

Reading; Monash

L. Davies (CASE student with Bob Plant; now postdoc)

PhD successfully completed and results have attracted interest internally and externally. Continuing collaboration at Monash

8. Convection and orography

Simon Vosper, Helen Wells

Leeds; Victoria Smith, PhD (CASE) with Stephen Mobbs

A study using the BLASIUS model to examine behaviour of gravity waves in presence of surface heating has been completed. The CASE student participated in international field campaign, COPS during summer 2007.

9. Radar and lidar evaluation of cloud microphysics

Jon Petch Reading

Anthony Illingworth and Ewan O’Connor

Building on CloudNet work we have obtained cloud fraction comparisons from the operational NAE and global model against observations and have obtained a comparison of drizzle processes in the model against observations. Regular meetings and collaboration are ongoing in this area (e.g. a cloud and radiation workshop will be held in September 2008).

10. Improved representation of radiative characteristics of CO2 and H20

Jon Petch, James Manners

Imperial College, London

Wenyi Zhong and Jo Haigh

Numerical improvements in the band, k-term and pressure-temperature scaling of CO2 and H2O absorption in the atmosphere are being coded for the Unified Model under a CR contract.

11. Representation of cloud inhomogeneities

Jon Petch Reading

Robin Hogan and Jon Shonk (PhD)

Evaluation and improved representation of the effect of cloud inhomogeneities are available for inclusion in the Unified Model.

Jon has Met Office account to allow him to include a triple cloud solver in the UM. This will be tested against the MacICA scheme we are developing.

12. Evaluation of the high resolution UM over the TWP

Jon Petch, Paul Field

Maria Russo, Cambridge

As part of a GCSS PCS working group project, Maria will be running and comparing the UM with other

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

limited area models.

13. Boundary layer processes in mid-latitude cyclones.

Andy Brown Reading

Ian Boutle PhD (CASE) with Bob Plant

Started autumn 2006. Good progress with idealized simulations, and note submitted to QJ explaining apparent discrepancies between previously published results. Work being extended to more realistic cases, including moisture.

14. Improvement of stratocumulus representation in models by the use of high resolution observations

Adrian Lock Reading

Anthony Illingworth and Robin Hogan

Interesting observations identified of turbulence within well-mixed and decoupled cloud layers for future comparison with UM forecast output

15. Mixed phase cloud Paul Field Manchester Chris Dearden Paul Connolly Tom Choularton

LEM simulations of APPRAISE case studies (mixed-phase layer cloud) have been performed investigating the performance of existing microphysics schemes, validated against Chilbolton radar.

16. Aerosol-cloud interactions

Paul Field Leeds, Manchester, Oxford, Cambridge

Meeting to review progress in UK community and to scope out possibility of generating a consortium proposal to study aerosol-cloud interactions

17. Modelling of Summertime Arctic Stratus Clouds

Adrian Lock Leeds Thomas Pleavin PhD (CASE) with Ian Brooks

Starting October 2008

Forecasting Research

18. Assimilation of Doppler radar winds from the Chilbolton research radar.

Sue Ballard Salford

Chris Collier

Fathalla Rihan

Direct collaboration with Salford has now drawn to a close. The work by a NERC funded PDRA at Salford concentrated on definition of radar errors and production of superobbed data as well as undertaking some assimilation and forecast tests. Met Office staff extended the Met Office Var system to allow assimilation of radial winds. We have run experiments with Chilbolton research radar single scan data and investigated superobbing strategies and specification of radar and background errors. Work is focussing on impact on convective storms, and will use CSIP data for input.

Work is now in progress in Met

3

Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

Office developing this work further to utilise operational multiscan and multiradar radial Doppler winds.

19. Use of moisture flux convergence and in particular the vertically integrated divergence as a predictor for precipitation for potential use as an observation operator in 3D-Var via use of the balanced vertical velocity defined by the Richardson Equation.

Sue Ballard Reading and Surrey

Peter Panagi

The contract is now complete and we are looking for resource to implement the results more fully in VAR.

Possible future collaboration with University of Auckland PhD student on use of modifications to vertical velocity profiles – may develop the integrated divergence idea

20. Working with Prof Alan Thorpe and post-doc Sarah Dance on high resolution data assimilation.

Sue Ballard Reading

Sarah Dance

Link with Prof Thorpe finished when he moved to NERC. Sarah has been working on 2 projects. One is with Dr Mike Cullen at Exeter and the other is on issues related to treatment of non-Gaussian pdfs in data assimilation through ensemble techniques and particle filters. Part of the current work with Dr Cullen is extending Var to allow for surface friction in the control variable transforms in the global system. We need to ensure that work is extended to limited area models to interact with high resolution data assimilation. Sarah Dance is a PDRA funded by NERC through DARC and now has a RCUK fellowship.

Marek Wlasak, Exeter, is working with Sarah Dance to implement this work in global and limited area models

21. NERC: Flood Risk from Extreme Events (FREE) project on exploitation of new data sources and assimilation techniques for storm and flood forecasting

Sue Ballard

Peter Clark

Anthony Illingworth

Sarah Dance

Sue Gray

Bob Plant (all Reading)

Bob Moore (CEH, Wallingford)

Support for 2 PDRAs for 3 years Research in convective scale DA (focussing on use of radar, especially refractivity for low level humidity and clear air Doppler), ensemble precipitation prediction and coupling to hydrological models.

Staff now in post. Radar work has been supplemented by a PhD student

22. Development of Convective scale EnKF

Sue Ballard

Alan O’Neill

Ross Banister

Stefano Migliorini (Reading)

One PDRA (Stefano Migliorini) and one PhD (Sanita Vetra) within DARC to research into development of convective scale EnKF system within the UM framework.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

A 2nd PhD student is about to start

23. Exploration of scales in analyses

Sue Ballard Gillian Baxter PhD student

Nancy Nichols, Amos Lawless, Sarah Dance

Reading Maths and Met

DARC NERC CASE PhD student investigating problems of analysis in limited area domains and need to capture synoptic evolution on scales larger than analysis domain. Idealised studies using simple models. Directly related to issues in convective scale data assimilation.

24. Sue Ballard, Mark Dixon and Mike Cullen

Ross Bannister Investigation of balance in convective scale models

25. Sue Ballard

Mark Dixon

Aime Fournier NCAR (visiting Reading Univ)

Ross Bannister(Reading)

Investigation of use of wavelets in background error covariances and to define length scales from their use in analysis of ensembles of high resolution forecasts

26. Convective Storm Initiation Project (CSIP)

Peter Clark Large NERC-funded consortium, primarily Alan Blyth (Leeds), Doug Parker (Leeds), Keith Browning (Reading), Chris Collier (Salford), Anthony Illingworth (Reading)

New CASE student 2007/08.

The CSIP 2005 summer campaign ran very successfully through June, July and August. Results from this and the 2004 pilot are already being used to validate (and inspire) improvements to UM dynamics, microphysics and, particularly, turbulence. A substantial number of papers have been published and a small number of others are in the pipeline.

CSIP follow-up proposal has been to support one PDRA+CASE student at Leeds was successful.

27. Predictability of Convective Storms

Peter Clark CASE Studentship –Peter Lean, Reading, co-supervised with Sue Gray

Follow-up PDRA working under FREE funding.

Successfully completed PhD. Useful methodologies have been developed to look at predictability of convection within the UM framework. Peter Lean is now working in the Met Office at Exeter.

Follow-up work under FREE funding developing ideas re cumulus-scale stochastic physics.

28. Biometeorology of High-Altitude Insect Layering as Revealed by Vertical-Looking

Peter Clark CASE Studentship –Curtis Wood, co supervised with Janet Barlow (Reading) and

This is an unusual collaboration, coming to the end of its second year – bringing fairly well established meteorology into entomology to explain nocturnal

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

Radar

PROJECT COMPLETE

Ian Woiwood (Rothampstead).

insect migration behaviour. This is proving extremely successful in the entomology world (the student has already published 2 papers which are highly regarded). In the final year of the project a simple Lagrangian dispersion model (sharing much in common with NAME) was produced to model impact behaviour with considerable success. Final thesis written up and PhD awarded.

29. Cloudnet Peter Clark Robin Hogan (Reading)

Informal collaboration - provision of mesoscale model data for evaluation of model cloud climatology.

30. Urban surface exchange

Peter Clark Stephen Belcher (Reading)

Follow-up work from CASE student – PDRA has developed improved treatment of urban surface exchange in UM – to be incorporated into JULES. The scheme is being used within LUCID project for London.

31. 'Sting Jet' diagnostics Peter Clark Sue Gray, Keith Browning (Reading)

NERC funding has been achieved for PDRA and CASE student. End of first-year for CASE student. Promising work looking especially at PV diagnostics in ‘new’ storms (i.e. different from those originally used to identify SJ).

32. Use of the UM for atmospheric chemistry modelling.

Project Complete

Peter Clark Ranjeet Sokhi, (Hertford) plus others from IC, UEA, Manchester, CEH.

UWERN has funded the development of an interface to enable UM data to drive the USEPA CMAQ chemistry and transport model. JCMM has acted as advisor in best use of model data.

33. Variational Inference for Stochastic Dynamic Environmental Models

Peter Clark Dan Cornford (Aston) John Shawe-Taylor (UCL),

Manfred Opper (ex-Southampton, now TU Berlin),

Ian Roulstone (Surrey)

Project on novel, non-Gaussian approaches to DA in stochastic systems. Primarily involved in advisory capacity.

34. Modelling chemistry in deep convection. ACTIVE.

Peter Clark Maria Rousseau (Cambridge)

Informal collaboration assisting Cambridge in use of the UM at convective scale to simulate the Hector Storm in support of observational and modelling studies of chemical transport through deep convective systems.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

35. Convective scale modelling in support of ICEPIC

Peter Clark Alan Blyth (Leeds) Informal collaboration comparing UM simulations of early stage convection with ICEPIC data.

36. EPSRC Flood Risk Management Research Consortium.

Brian Golding

Ian Cluckie (Bristol)

37. 2-D spatial rainfall modelling

Peter Dempsey

Imperial College & Sheffield University

The Met Office is a member of a consortium for a DTI-sponsored SAM* project to study radar-rainfall data for 2-D spatial rainfall modelling in urban drainage applications. (*SAM = System based Analysis and Management of urban flood risks)

38. Environmental conditions for ignition and smouldering

Penny Marno Edinburgh University

Colin Legg / Matt Davies / Guillermo Rein

Sub-contract to undertake fire testing and fuel moisture measurements for peat to establish the environmental conditions for ignition and smouldering, as part of the project to develop the Met Office Fire Severity Index

39. Scottish Firebeaters Project

Penny Marno Edinburgh University

Colin Legg / Matt Davies

Collaboration to deliver Fire Severity Index for Scottish and provide weather information in order to develop heather based fire model

40. Effects of heat on over 80’s

Penny Marno Southampton University / Exeter University

MSc summer project funded to look into heat effects on over 80s to inform health forecasting service

41. Weathers effects on pandemic flu – using 1889 as a case study

Penny Marno Medical History Unit, Exeter University

Successful Joint bid to Wellcome trust for a 6 month postdoc researcher – runs to Dec 08.

42. Patient diary project in Warwickshire on weather effects and health

Penny Marno Warwick University

Jackie Sturt

Joint work with Warwickshire NHS Trust – Prof Sturt is acting as academic mentor

43. Effects of weather on cardiac arrhythmias

Penny Marno Imperial College

Martin Cowie

Developing proposal to look at weather effects on patients with implants for cardiac arrhythmias

44. Environmental Health Tish Laing-Morton

Brunel University

Chris Skelly

Initial meetings to discuss potential collaboration. Have

45. Environment and Human Health

Tish Laing-Morton

Peninsula Medical School, Exeter/Plymouth University

Membership of forum and potential collaborations discussed.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

46. Seasonal Affective Disorder

Penny Marno Exeter University Potential collaboration with medical history unit to look at historical impacts of SAD

47. Comparison of MOSES outputs with observations.

Roderick Smith

UEA

Supervisor: Stephen Dorling

PhD Student: Xin Kong

Informal collaboration on comparison of MOSES-PDM, in-situ and satellite estimates of soil moisture content. Some MOSES-PDM data and the stand-alone MOSES code supplied to a PhD student. Thesis completed June 2006. Some sensitivity studies done with MOSES, varying soil and land-use parameters – possible publications to follow.

48. Characterising atmospheric response to a heterogeneous urban surface

Dave Thomson / Doug Middleton

Reading University (Janet Barlow & Anil Padhra (CASE student))

We hope this will lead to developments of urban parametrizations for the NAME model.

49. Ozone trajectories and tracer work Alistair

Manning Bristol University (Dudley Shallcross)

Improving the ozone trajectory model and using Bristol University tracer experiments to test the NAME model

50. Interpretation of CO2 data

Alistair Manning

Ralf Toumi, Imperial College

Provision of single site met data from 4km model.

51. Boundary layer depth analysis

Alistair Manning

Sue Grimmond, Kings College London

Provision of single site met data from 4km model.

52. Analysis of satellite data for air quality

Alistair Manning

Alan Hewitt, Leicester University

Estimation of CO2 emissions from satellite data.

53. Urban meteorology and air pollution modelling

Doug Middleton

University of Hertfordshire (Prof Ranjeet Sokhi)

Honorary Senior Research Fellowship. Advisor on work on contract for Environment Agency on model comparisons.

Numerical Modelling

54. Use of Portable UM at CGAM and porting assistance to IBM (HPCx)

PUM Manager

Reading ,

Lois Steenman-Clark

Continuing contact with the CGAM group, delivering latest available UM releases

55. Towards Generic Scalability of the UM

Paul Selwood

Reading (Lois Steenman-Clark), Manchester (Graham Riley) and Daresbury (Mike Ashworth)

Code and strategy support for an EPSRC funded project to enhance scalability of the UM on a wide range of supercomputer architectures.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

56. FLUME Steve Mullerworth

Manchester,

Graham Riley and Rupert Ford

FLUME project consultancy to partition diagnostics from modelling components..

57. Other current UM licence holders (excluding climate)

(if this is an active collaboration it will be referenced elsewhere)

PUM Manager

Queen Mary’s, UCL

Min Zhu

Sept 2004

58. Southampton

Zhengtong Xie,

LES over Urban environments: Feb 2005

59. Lancaster

Philip Younger / Keith Beven

coupling UM with flooding model: Mar 2005

60. Leeds,

John Dobbie / Alan Gadian

Physics of Cirrus Clouds, Oct 2005

61. Leeds

Juma Al-Maskari / Alan Gadian

Mesoscale Modelling: Isle of Aarran, Oct 2005

62. Bath

Duncan Hodges

Attenuation of Satellite Comms: Dec 2005

63. Hertfordshire

Ye Yu and Charles Chemel et al

Urban Air Quality ; May 2006

64. Edinburgh

Massimon Vieno

Transport and Deposition of Pollutants, July 2006

65. Manchester

Michael Bane

Reynolds Scale Modelling and Aerosol, Dec 2006

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

66. Oxford

Tolu Aina and Carl Christensen

HadGAM1 on ClimatePrediction.net, Feb 2007

67. Collaboration on forecast verification

Clive Wilson

Exeter

David Stephenson

Focus on Verification of Severe Weather.

68. Exploiting Meteosat Second Generation (GERB, SEVERI) to evaluate NWP models - SINERGEE project.

Sean Milton Reading

Richard Allan / Tony Slingo

Supplying SINERGEE data to ESSC as part of the RADAGAST project to look at cloud, aerosol, clear sky radiative transfer over Africa using GERB and ARM data

69. AMMA-UK collaborations – collaboration with on performance of UM (surface fluxes, convection) in west African monsoon. UM data provided to BADC.

Sean Milton Leeds

Doug Parker (+others in AMMA-UK)

Improved understanding of parametrization deficiencies.

70. Iinvestigating tropical convective systems evolution over Africa in the model and GERB/SEVERI data

Sean Milton Dr Jo Futyan, ESSC Reading Univ

SINERGEE spin-off

71. Surface Fluxes (Turbulent Exchange) over the Arctic Icecap

Sean Milton Leeds,

Catheryn Birch / Ian Brooks.

CASE studentship starting Oct 2006

72. Weather Impacts Simon Jackson and Richard Swinbank

BRE Birmingham Severe Weather Impacts on Buildings, Poer Lines and Transport Infrastructure.

Data Assimilation and Ensembles

73. Ozone assimilation Camilla Mathison

Brian Kerridge, RAL.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

74. PV control variable. Mike Cullen DARC

Ross Bannister

Contract let to enable operational trialling. Needs more work on preconditioning before operational trial worthwhile (see no Error! Reference source not found.).

75. Collaboration with university (UWERN) participants in JCMM

Various UWERN/JCMM

76. BL control variable Mike Cullen UWERN (Sarah Dance)

Contract let. Code now available and being tested.

77. Development of stratospheric model configurations.

David Jackson,

Sana Mahmood

UGAMP, Reading (Andrew Charlton)

Sana Mahmood approved to start PhD in April 2009, with Reading: “Impact of the representation of the stratosphere on tropospheric forecasts”.

78. Greenland flow distortion experiment

Richard Swinbank

Reading (Sue Gray, Emma Irvine)

UEA(Ian Renfrew, Nina Petersen)

Providing sensitive area predictions to help target dropsondes during the field campaign. Reading will run forecast experiments to study impact of targeted dropsondes.

79. Understanding of African Easterly Waves and their Predictability: a Moist Singular Vector approach

Richard Swinbank, Ken Mylne, Sean Milton

University of Reading (Brian Hoskins and Ros Cornforth)

This study aims to further the understanding of African Easterly Waves, their predictability, and possible improved initial perturbations for ensemble forecasts.

80. Use of new dynamical variables in numerical methods

Mike Cullen St Andrews (David Devlin)

81. Long standing collaborators on mathematical understanding of atmospheric dynamics (e.g. 1996 Newton Institute programme)

Mike Cullen Oxford, Surrey, Aberystwyth

EPSRC funded workshop is to be held at the Met Office in April 2009. Links started with new EPSRC Centres on nonlinear pde’s at Oxford (John Ball) and Edinburgh.

82. On Industrial Advisory group for MSC in mathematical modelling

Mike Cullen Bath

83. Computation of Stochastic Forcing in Large-Scale Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation

Mike Cullen CASE Studentship – Oxford (Anthony Lock)

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

Models

84. Adaptive grid generation using mass transport methods

Mike Cullen CASE studentship-

Bath (Emily Walsh)

85. Efficient solution methods for elliptic pdes

Mike Cullen GWR studentship-

Bath (Sean Buckeridge)

Substantial progress made on efficient solution of omega equation in COV model. Operational implementation now feasible. Also see Error! Reference source not found..

86. Multiscale 4d-Var Gordon Inverarity / Mike Cullen

Case studentship-Reading (Stephen Haben)

87. 4d-Var for imperfect models

Mike Cullen GWR Fellowship-Bath (Melina Freitag)

Appointed from 1.10.07

88. Space Weather David Jackson

EPSRC studentship (Tabitha Arnesen) UCL

(with Alan Aylward)

Project to couple the UM with a thermosphere/ionosphere model (CTIP). Initial coupling results produced. Verification against independent data starting.

89. Mesospheric Data Assimilation

David Jackson

GWR studentship Exeter

(with John Thuburn)

Good initial progress in evaluation Met Office stratosphere / lower mesosphere temperature analysis errors (v EOS MLS & HALOE data).

90. Investigation of stratospheric analyses through tracer transport studies

David Jackson

Leeds NERC grant, supervisor: Martyn Chipperfield, postdoc: Beartiz Monge-Sanz.

Started Oct 2008.

91. Stochastic Parameterisation of Convective for Ensembles

Neill Bowler

(Ken Mylne)

CASE Studentship – Reading (Michael Ball started Sept’06)

Postdoc (Richard Keane started June’07)

(Reading supervisor – Bob Plant)

CASE studentship looking at stochastic parameterisation in longer runs of the model.

Post-doc focussing on use in ensembles on weather-forecast timescales with MOGREPS.

92. Public Understanding of Probability Forecasts

Ken Mylne Exeter Experimental economics lab has conducted experiments on understanding of forecasts and produced a paper. Further experiments are subject to funding.

Observation Based Research

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

93. Development of aircraft-mounted probes for the counting and sizing of atmospheric ice crystals.

Phil Brown Hertfordshire (Prof. Paul Kaye)

We maintain a standing collaboration with the University of Hertfordshire for this work. Small Ice Detector Mk2 (SID-2) flown during summer 2005. SID-3 expected to be available early 2009

94. Ice and Precipitation Initiation in Cumulus (ICEPIC).

Phil Brown Leeds (Alan Blyth)

Manchester (Tom Choularton)

Field project in 2005/06, studying the initiation of precipitation and ice-phase particles in UK summertime convective clouds. Data analysis and associated modeling studies are underway.

95. Rain in Cumulus over Oceans (RICO).

Phil Brown Leeds (Alan Blyth + student/postdoc)

Field project in 2005, studying the warm-rain process and precipitation evolution in the trade cumulus regime. Part of a larger collaboration with US field project.. Data analysis and associated modeling work underway.

96. Stratocumulus and drizzle studies

Phil Brown Reading (Ewan O’Connor/ Robin Hogan)

Manchester (Hugh Coe/ Geraint Vaughan et al)

Leeds (Alan Blyth/ Alan Gadian)

Ongoing collaboration in study of Sc-topped boundary layer and drizzle impacts over southern UK, through combined radar and aircraft studies.

Joint participation in UK component of VOCALS-Rex field campaign to study aerosol/cloud/ drizzle interactions and impacts on Sc-topped BL structure (international collaboration with US groups).

97. Planning for intercomparison between assorted instruments on BAe146-301 and ground based instruments to investigate problems with modelling of the radiative properties of ozone in the IR

Alan Vance Geraint Vaughan, Manchester

Plans in place waiting for suitable weather window.

98. TAFTS instrument development and research in to clear air spectroscopy and cirrus clouds.

Jonathan P Taylor

Imperial College London (Harries)

Ongoing research in to impacts of cirrus on far-IR radiative transfer using data from Eaquate campaign in 2004.

99. Continuum Absorption at Visible and Infrared Wavelengths and its Atmospheric

Jonathan P Taylor, Stuart Newman

Reading (Shine), Imperial College (Harries), UCL (Tennyson), RAL (K

Consortium grant funded involves laboratory, ground based and airborne field work over 3 year period beginning 2007.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

Relevance (CAVIAR) Smith), Cambridge (Jones, R) NPL (Gardiner)

100. Impact of temperature of sea water on its refractive index and resulting impact on AATSR SST measurements. Impact of desert dust on AATSR SSTs.

Stuart Newman

Edinburgh New emissivity calculations supplied and incorporated in AATSR SST algorithm, impact study ongoing

101. CAESAR (Cirrus and Anvils: European Satellite and Airborne Radiation measurements project)

Anthony Baran, Clare Lee

Imperial (J Pickering), Reading (Hogan), RAL (Poulsen), Manchester (Gallagher)

Collaborative field campaigns in 2005, 2006 and 2007 to study cirrus clouds, involving FAAM Bae146 aircraft, Chilbolton radar and CloudSat.

102. STACATO (Semi Transparent Airborne Cirrus and Thermodynamic Observations)

Anthony Baran, Clare Lee

Manchester (Gallagher), Imperial College (Pickering), Reading (Hogan), Lancaster (McKenzie).

Collaborative field campaign investigating thin cirrus scheduled for 2011 off the Caribbean or Amazonia

103. EMERALD (Egrett Microphysics Experiment, with radiation, Lidar and Dynamics)

Anthony Baran

Manchester (Connolly)

Using EMERALD CPI data to test ensemble model in the Tropics

104. Cold Land Processes Experiment II (CLPX-II)

Jonathan P Taylor, Chawn Harlow

Edinburgh (Essery) and ESSC (Gurney)

Collaborative field campaign developing multi-level snow model for UM and assimilation of snow affected microwave data from satellites.

105. Investigations of the radiative/dynamical effects of mineral dust under the GERB Intercomparison of Longwave and Shortwave radiation project (GERBILS)

Jim Haywood, Ben Johnson, Simon Osborne

Leeds (Parker, Marsham) and ESSC, Reading (A. Slingo)

1 paper published on Synergy project (Haywood et al., JGR, 2005).

1 paper in press (Marsham et al, 2008)

1 paper submitted to QJRMS (Grams et al, 2008)

106. PI of the Dust and Biomass Experiment (DABEX) investigating the radiative and optical properties of mineral dust and biomass burning

Jim Haywood Reading (Highwood), Manchester (Coe) and Leeds (McQuaid) university

18 papers published/in press in JGR Special Issue (2008) in total.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

aerosols in Africa.

107. Co-I of Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) investigating mineral dust radiative and optical properties.

Jim Haywood Reading (Highwood), Manchester (Coe) and Leeds (McQuaid) university

1 paper published on dust modeling with the CAMM using DODO data for validation (Greed et al, JGR, 2008)

108. ALERT Aerosols in London Experiment on Radiative Transfer

Jim Haywood Imperial College New contract from DSTL/Kinetic using an interferometer to assess the urban impact on terrestrial radiation.

109. VISURB: VISibility in URBan environments. Collaborative flights/data sharing with NERC ADIENT/TOFAMS funded flights

Jim Haywood Manchester University/ Reading University

1 paper accepted QJRMS using AMS data to determine chemical composition of aerosol of aerosol around UK

110. EUCAARI Jim Haywood Hugh Coe: Manchester University

Provision of SWS/SHIMS and wet-nephelometer data - £60K funding provided to Met Office. Analysis ongoing

111. ADRIEX Jim Haywood, Simon Osborne

Reading/ Manchester/ Leeds University

QJRMS Special Issue with 7 papers published 2007.

112. Manchester wind profiler

Jeremy Price Manchester From Summer 2007 there is an ongoing collaboration with UFAM to site the Manchester wind profiler at Cardington. One UFAM member of staff is now also based at Cardington and will conduct research into BL wind evolution.

113. CASE student Jeremy Price Manchester A CASE student (MetO supervisor, J Price) with Manchester University has started Summer 2007 to study ways to measure and quantify atmospheric turbulence using wind profilers.

114. EASI campaign Jeremy Price Salford Collaboration to examine stratocumulus evolution over East Anglia. The Salford Doppler Lidar has beenbased at Cardington to collect data for stratocumulus studies. Data analysis is in its final phase.

115. COLPEX Jeremy Price Leeds, Salford , Imperial College

New colaboration with long-term project to observe cold pooling and fog formation in a medium sized

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

system of valleys.

116. Urban Studies Jeremy Price Kings College London MRU Cardington has provided some support (radiosondes) for Sue Grimmonds Urban campaign in london.

117. Infra-red camera studies

Jeremy Price/ Volker Horlacher

Imperial College An infra red camera has been assesed for both research purposes, and use as part of the obs network (in conjunction with Mike Molyneux). Further work will involve deployment during COLPEX (see above).

118. FAAM – Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements BAE146-301 The Met Office and NCAS (NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science) jointly fund and run the FAAM BAe146-301 aircraft. OBR staff collaborate widely with many universities in various committees that oversee the running of the facility. In addition there is widespread collaboration in the conduct of airborne research campaigns

Roy Kershaw NERC Successful collaboration, working well.

119. UFAM – University Facility for Atmospheric Measurement UFAM is a facility of ground based remote sensing instrumentation used by the UK university community for atmospheric research. OBR staff collaborate with many university groups in this area primarily through the Met Research Unit at Cardington.

Jeremy Price Leeds Management Jeremy is part of UFAM management group.

120. CILCO aircraft instrument build

Clare Lee Cardiff University Manufacture, build and testing of novel aircraft instrument to measure cirrus properties. Includes

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

CASE student (Met O supervisor C. Lee). Instrument completion estimate Feb 09. NERC proposal submitted for installation and flights on FAAM BAe-146 aircraft.

Satellite Applications

121. Assimilation of satellite data

Bryan Conway, Sue Ballard, John Eyre

Reading (Martin Ehrendorfer and others)

Frequent interaction between Met Office staff at Reading and DARC

122. Sea surface temperature retrieval

Roger Saunders

Edinburgh (Chris Merchant, Owen Embury)

Joint AATSR reprocessing for Climate project underway with Edinburgh leading consortium with RAL, Leicester and NOCS

123. Cloud detection in satellite imagery (TRICS project)

Roger Saunders

Edinburgh(Chris Merchant, Student: Shona Mackie)

Joint project under way with PhD Case student (started Oct 2005) working with MSG data.

124. AATSR SST validation

Roger Saunders

Leicester (David Llewellyn-Jones, Gary Corlett)

Exchange of buoy data sets for validation

125. Evaluation of Windsat data

Steve English

Essex (David Bebbington)

Preliminary comparison of Windsat polarimetric radiances with equivalents calculated from NWP model fields.

126. Ground-based GPS observation of atmospheric water vapour

Dave Offiler, John Nash

Nottingham (Richard Bingley)

Met Office contracted IESSG, Nottingham U, to supply systems to process UK GPS network data. Now assimilated operationally

127. Assimilation of dynamical information from satellite imagery for NWP

John Eyre CASE Studentship – Surrey (Ian Roulstone) Student: Alison Rudd

Student started Oct 2004.

128. Validation of MSG rainfall over Africa

Roger Saunders

CASE Studentship – Reading (David Grimes) Student: Robin Chadwick

Student started Oct 2006.

129. Assimilation of cloudy satellite radiances

John Eyre CASE Studentship - Reading (Alan O'Neill) Student: Alison Fowler

Student started Oct 2006.

130. Correlated observation errors in data assimilation

John Eyre, Steve English

CASE Studentship – Reading (Sarah Dance) Student: Laura Stewart

Student started Oct 2006.

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Met Office Contact

University Notes / recent progress

131. Validation of climate models using HadIR

Roger Saunders

Joint Climate

Reading Univ (A. Slingo) is the main collaborator, with Edinburgh (S. Tett) and Imperial (J. Harries) also involved.

NERC and the Met Office are collaborating on the HadIR project. The JCRP are providing a post to liaise with NERC and carry out mutually beneficial research.

132. Development of fire radiative product from multi-satellite geostationary radiances

Roger Saunders

Knowledge transfer. Kings College London (Martin Wooster) Student: Weidong Xu

Student started April 2007

Dynamics Research

133. Collaboration on numerical methods for GFD.

Nigel Wood & Andrew Staniforth

Exeter

Cosponsored Exeter U/ Met Office Chair (John Thuburn)

Development of a vertical Lagrangian coordinate

Relevance of orders of accuracy of numerical modelling

Numerics of physics-dynamics coupling

Further development of SLICE within the ENDGame formulation and SW prototype model.

134. Physics-Dynamics Coupling for Weather and Climate Models.

Nigel Wood EPSRC CASE Studentship – Exeter (John Thuburn) Student: Dan Holdaway

Student started Oct 2006.

135. Numerical methods for weather and climate models: coupling resolved scales to subgrid models.

Nigel Wood GWR Studentship – Exeter (John Thuburn) Student: James Kent

Student started Oct 2006.

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Annex 2: Summary of international collaboration

Objectives Task leads Key milestones

Evaluation and diagnostics

1. Use of NAE and HIRLAM lateral boundaries on the Norwegian UM4km to investigate differences in skill

Dag Bjørge Clive Wilson

Apr 2009: Report on the relative impact of using HIRLAM8 and the NAE as the driving model

2. Construct a comprehensive verification of UM performance in South Africa, identifying systematic errors and undertaking diagnostic studies

Warren Tennant Mike Bush Clive Wilson

Mar 2009: Submit a publication based on diagnostic studies of the diurnal cycle of rainfall, including case studies

3. To evaluate an optimum combination of Met Office and ACCESSS tropical cyclone initialisation procedures

Noel Davidson Julian Heming

Jun 2009: Develop a plan for a more extensive collaborative, cross-cutting project on the diagnosis and prediction of tropical cyclone behaviour, with the ultimate goal of improved understanding and forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall and intensity

4. To evaluate and reduce systematic errors in the Unified Model system on a range of spatial and temporal scales using the Southern Hemisphere emphasis and skill of ACCESS scientists

Lawrie Rikus Sean Milton

Dec 2008: Prepare a model evaluation science plan that includes diagnostic and evaluation tools as well as relevant datasets to improve the joint assessment of UM performance in the southern hemisphere

5. To improve the capability of the UM to model atmospheric processes over East Asia, by undertaking diagnostic studies and evaluating model configurations on short and medium range timescales

Dong-Eon Chang Sean Milton Gill Martin

Apr 2009: Develop a more detailed science plan for model evaluation following the initial identification of weaknesses or systematic errors

6. To improve the capability of the UM to model atmospheric processes in the tropics, by undertaking diagnostic studies and evaluating model configurations on short and medium range timescales

Gopal Iyengar Sean Milton Gill Martin

Dec 2008: Report on the analysis of UM global model forecasts of the 2008 Asian monsoon against real-time SYNOP data and radiosonde vertical profiles (wind, temperature and humidity)

7. Assess tropical cyclone tracks in global and regional configurations of the UM to determine the benefit of higher resolution models for tropical cyclone forecasting, and to evaluate performance of the UM for severe weather prediction

Raghu Ashrit Julian Heming

Mar 2009: Report on the benefits of using a regional configuration and a global ensemble for TC forecasting Aug 2009: Report on the impact of dropsonde observations in the UM forecasts of TCs

Improved use of satellite data

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8. Investigate low spectral resolution infrared and microwave scan biases and radiative transfer model errors for LAMs to determine whether scan biases are subject to regional dependence, and better characterise and reduce biases and errors if the case

Michael Uddstrom Stephen English

Oct 2008: Paper on regional dependency study prepared for publication

9. Use of imager data to improve the detection of HIRS, AMSU sounder radiance contaminants (i.e. unmodelled radiative processes)

Michael Uddstrom Stephen English

Mar 2009: Paper on use of imager data to improve detection of HIRS and AMSU sounder radiance contaminants prepared for publication

10. Undertake experiments to investigate adaptive thinning of satellite data: when do correlated observations errors outweigh the benefits arising from increasing observational density?

Michael Uddstrom Stephen English

Nov 2008: Develop plans to investigate adaptive thinning of satellite data, following discussion with Met Office satellite applications and THORPEX teams

11. To exploit newly available satellite data in NWP, e.g. MTSAT, COMS

Sang-Won Joo Roger Saunders

Dec 2009: Report on the impact in KMA models of the new satellite data e.g. COMS, MTSAT

12. To enhance the use of Indian observations in the UM

Munmun Dasgupta Andrew Lorenc

Dec 2008: Provide a summary of upcoming Indian satellite data, including instrument characteristics, launch dates, orbits, and data dissemination methods

Processing, quality control and assimilation of observations

13. To introduce position and scale and time dependent background error covariance models for use in all configurations of the UM system

Peter Steinle Andrew Lorenc

Jul 2009: Implement code updates within VAR as a general release

14. Adapt the OPS to enable input of observations from the ECMWF ODB

Peter Steinle Rick Rawlins

Dec 2008: ACCESS OPS changes to be released as part of OPS24.4

15. Investigate the impact on forecast accuracy of NZLAM-12 region forecast error covariances (length scales and variances) estimated from global and regional models

Phil AndrewsAndrew Lorenc

Mar 2009: Paper on impact of globally/regionally estimated error covariances prepared for publication

16. To test more advanced observation processing and data assimilation techniques

Phil AndrewsAndrew Lorenc

Dec 2009: Report on implementation of imager based QC flags in OPS Dec 2009: Report with plans for improved estimation of background error variances Dec 2010: Report on experiments with time

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varying background error variances

Model parameterisations and processes

17. Evaluate the benefits of 1km resolution models for selected areas in Norway by focussing on rainfall, strong turbulence and land use, including urban environments

Thor-Erik Nordeng Viel Odegaard Pete Clark Paul Field Simon Vosper

Jul 2009: Report on the evaluation of additional benefits of 1km models for a number of selected areas in Norway by investigating: a. Handling of precipitation compared to 4km and parameterised vs explicit convection b. Cases where strong turbulence from mountain lee waves are important c. Land use sensitivity

18. Evaluation of the new UM snow scheme in Scandinavia

Jorn Kristiansen Martin Best Gabriel Rooney

Dec 2009: Report on the evaluation of the new UM snow scheme currently under development (the new snow scheme for JULES)

19. Test prototype convective precipitation settings, using southern Africa as a testbed within a regional model

Isaac Ngwana Steve Derbyshire

Nov 2009: Report to the 3rd UM Users Workshop on the impact of testing two prototype convective precipitation settings in reruns of the SA12 to T+48h

20. To investigate the sensitivity of the SA12 to soil moisture and land surface type gradients in initiating and feeding convection

Isaac Ngwana Steve Derbyshire Gabriel Rooney

Sep 2009: Report on the impact and performance of different soil moisture initialisations and perturbations

21. To develop UM physical parameterisations by assessing their performance in the Southern Hemisphere in general and in the Australian and Antarctic regions in particular

Gary DietachmayerAndy Brown

Feb 2009: Zhian Sun to incorporate latest code changes relating to SES2 into local version of UM7.1, perform final tests and deliver revised code to the Met Office Apr 2009: James Manners to open a branch and include code in the trunk when it opens for science changes at UM7.4

Software infrastructure for the NWP system

22. To ensure code improvements are integrated back into Met Office supported code releases

Martin Dix Dave Matthews

Dec 2008: Proposed changes to SCS reviewed by Met Office’s Modelling Infrastructure Support Systems team

Ensemble forecasting research

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23. Develop convective scale ensemble capability through experience with the met.no downscaled LAMEPS

Marit Jensen Ken Mylne

Dec 2008: Develop longer term plans for convective scale ensemble forecasting research

24. To investigate approaches to ensemble prediction by (i) using the same approach as MOGREPS, (ii) using singular vectors, and (iii) using Ensemble Kalman Filter methods

Terry O'KaneMike Naughton Ken Mylne Richard Swinbank

Jul 2009: Develop a longer-term plan aimed at a common Met Office / ACCESS method for ensemble prediction, probability forecasting and verification

25. To improve the ensemble prediction capability of MOGREPS to use the UM through a programme of research and development activities, and through consideration of a joint Met Office / KMA high resolution global ensemble prediction system

Young-Youn Park Richard Swinbank

Oct 2009: Develop a proposal to set up a joint Met Office / KMA high-resolution global MOGREPS-15 Dec 2009: Report on investigations into using a bigger ensemble for ETKF (e.g. 48 or 96, rather than 24 members)

NWP post-processing and impacts

26. To evaluate and characterise site specific forecasts for representative sites in New Zealand, using statistical post processing methods to specify predictors to remove forecast biases, and compare the resulting forecasts with uncorrected forecasts

Trevor Carey-Smith Simon Jackson

Oct 2008: Paper on the use of application of statistical post processing methods to improve site specific forecasts prepared for publication Dec 2008: Report on more sophisticated methods to evaluate forecast errors, including area based methods for precipitation, and more sophisticated statistical methods (e.g. general linear models)

Ocean forecasting R&D

27. To evaluate global WW3 models at KMA and the Met Office, and improve performance of the WW3 configurations

Jang-Won Seo Adrian Hines

Jun 2009: Report on the evaluation of global WW3 models at KMA and the Met Office

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