Angelo State UniversityCenter for Security Studies Presentation for Student ApplicantsBy

Manuel F. Zamora, Ph.D.Assistant Professor

Angelo State UniversityMission Statement

[Deliver] undergraduate and graduate programs in . . . a learning-centered environment distinguished by its integration of teaching, research, creative endeavor, service, and co-curricular experiences. Prepare students to be responsible citizens and to have productive careers.

* Recruit, retain, & recognize diverse, high-quality faculty and staff.

* Provide and maintain facilities and services

* Offer curricula to support student intellectual & personal growth

* Develop & enhance external partnerships, collaborations, & funding

* Maintain a supportive, helpful environment

* Assess and evaluate all institutional functions and programs.

Center for Security StudiesMission Statement

Produce the best culture- and national security-focused graduates in the [U.S.], focusing foremost on military personnel and federal civilian employees. [To] . . . compete exceptionally well in the global arena, making lasting contributions to [U.S.] national security and economic prowess, and successfully engage in culturally informed interactions with other countries to increase international stability, cooperation and prosperity.

Security Studies: Objectives

1.What is the context, scope, scale, or complexity of the security threat?

2.Who are the actors?

3.What are we doing about it?

4.Are we effective?

Presentation Outline

• Defining the global village

• Threats to the security of the village• Who are the villains?• Specific targets• Security strategies• Alliances• Conclusion

What is the global village?

Close knit community

Interdependent

Accountable and responsible

Co-exist

Love and respect each other

Local, self-sustaining communities that are globally connected and collaborating to increase their degree of autonomy

People live and alongside others with shared values, not hindering others, positive competition, sustaining and advancing values

U.S. 99% literacy rate; life expectancy=78.37 (#50); 50.2% F Monaco 89.73 yoa; Japan 82.25 yoa; Canada 81.38 yoa

Our World: April 23, 2013

Global Issues• Railway Terrorist Attack Thwarted

(Canada; al-Qaeda- Iran)– “Most significant threat to global peace

and security in the world today”• Syria uses chemical agents (2011-70K)

– Hegel endorses Israel attack on Syria and Iran; Jordan airstrips okay

• China: H7N9 Cases on the Rise ($1.6B LOSSl

• India: 12 Superbugs • N. Korea: Kim Jong Un (Nuclear State)

United States Headlines• Boston Marathon Bombings (5/262)

– Dzhokhar Tsarnaev (U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq motivated extremism

• Gun control/violence debate– Sandy Hook survivors (NRA: $800K)

• Lance Armstrong: 2 Steroids Suits– DOJ (USPS); Acceptance Ins ($3M)– SCA Promotions

• FAA Furloughs• Immigration Reform

– Homeland/National Security– Human, drug, weapons, contraband

Known Threat Targets and Methods• Communication (cyber) • Transportation

– Aviation– Railway– Pipelines– Maritime

• Food and water• Electricity and energy• Critical infrastructure

• Transnational crime– Guns, drugs, humans– Money laundering– Extortion; violence

• Use of CBRNE (WMD)• Espionage• Public health (infectious

diseases; HIV/AIDS)

Critical Infrastructure

Public water systems

Primary roadways, bridges and highways

Key data storage and processing facilities, stock exchanges, or major banking centers

Chemical facilities located in close proximity to large population centers

Major power generation facilities

Hydroelectric facilities and dams

Nuclear power plants

CyberspaceMost pervasive, immediate, and sustained (Zamora, 2011)

2 billion users, Internet usage, 2010; 439 million Internet hosts

Cyberspace has become an incubator for new forms of entrepreneurship, and is a key sector of the global economy

Intrusion: U.S. critical infrastructure – energy, banking/finance, transportation, communication, and the Defense Industrial Base, rely on cyberspace, industrial control systems, and information technology

DoD: 15,000 networks; 7 million computing devices; hundreds of installations, numerous countries; State Dept: 143 mil. records; 142 mil. facial recognition images growing by 67 terabytes per month; 20,000 users (FBI, DoD, DHS)

DoD networks are probed millions of times daily and successful penetrations have led to loss of thousands of files form U.S. networks, allies and industry partners

Threats to intellectual property and critical infrastructure

Central European cybercrime networks defrauded U.S. citizens of $1.0B (FBI, 2011)

Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs)

“The U.S. Government considers Mexican DTOs as the greatest organized crime threat to the United States”

Mexico’s Drug Trafficking Organizations: Source and Scope of the Rising Violence, Jan. 7, 2011 (2010 National Drug Threat Assessment ).

Why? Integrated with power elites

“Failed state?” Regions lost to DTOs; Ciudad Juarez, leading newspaper called truce, identifying DTO as “de facto authorities.” PRI (71 yrs.); democratic parties Tamaulipas gubernatorial candidate Rodolfo Torre Cantu, PRI party, assassinated; 12 sitting mayors assassinated between January – October 2010; numerous journalists

28,000 Mexican citizens killed within 4-yr. period after President Felipe Calderon launched aggressive action

Ciudad Juarez vs. El Paso; Columbia - polydrug

DTO Tactics and Strategies

Military tactics, munitions and gear; automatic weapons & tacticsHeavy duty equipment (e.g. tanks)Kidnappings, Money-laundering,

Extortion, auto theft,ProstitutionRivalriesBattles for succession

Organized Crime Groupvs. DTO ->TOC

Structured group of at least three persons

Acting in concert with aim of committing serious crime

Aiming to obtain financial or material benefit (UN Convention against Transnational Organized Crime, Article 2 (a))

Special in enterprise, durable hierarchical structure, employ systemic violence and corruption, and extend activities into the legal economy (UNODC, Smuggling of Migrants- A Global View, 2010, p. 11)

Tightly controlled multi-million dollar, mafia-like criminal network, transporting humans, weapons, drugs, and organs (p. 11)

Links Between Weapons and Drugs

Both represent transnational organized crime Both exploit same trafficking routes Both illegal arms and drugs are profitable criminal market commodities (exchangeable) Both divert from countries of strong control to weaker ones (Balloon effect) Both rely on weak border control, rule of man and corruption Both pose serious threats to human security and political and economic stability in the regions

Links between drugs, guns, and human trafficking

• Transnational organized crime groups

• Routes of ingress and egress

• Business and entrepreneurial models

• Pervasive demand

• Exploit border weaknesses, legal deficiencies, and market economies

• Corrupt governments, law enforcement, and military operations

• Low risk; high stakes (return on investment)

Global Cocaine Flows, 2008UNODC World Drug Report, 2010

Feature of “anomie:” homicidal violence has become a feature of everyday life there is now a “degeneration of rules and norms and the emergence of forms of behavior unconstrained by standard notions of what is acceptable “(p. 29)

“Criminal insurgency:” the result of cartel decisions to battle each other and the government to maintain a stake in the game; high level of violence, impunity, and a criminal insurgency were thus an unintended side effect: (p. 29)

DTOs, unlike insurgents, do not seek to replace the government and provide services, they are committed to manipulating it with bribery and violence to continue their illegal activities without interference (p. 30)

Consequences of Violence

Transportation Security

Mass transitRailwayBus transportation

Commercial trucking

Air travel

MaritimeCruise shipsFreight and cargo

Other seaTankersLarge vessels

Transportation Infrastructure

RoadwaysNumerous structurally deficient roads and bridges (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2011)

AviationU.S.: 15,079 airports69.8 million passengers carried in July 2011 (US DOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics; http://www.bts.gov)

Trucking10 million trucks entered the U.S. 2010

In Laredo, 1,585,682 trucks; 3,038 trains (2010) (http://www.bts.gov, November 14, 2011)

.

Mass Transit Security

March 11, 2004, Madrid, Spainal Qaeda affiliated group: Moroccan Islamic Combat Group detonated 10 bombs on four commuter trains, killing 191 and injuring 1,800+(also July 2005 London; July 2006 Mumbai)

Transportation Security Administration

•Protect high-risk underwater/ground assets

•Protect other high-risk assets identified by assessments

•Use visible, predictable deterrence

•Target counter-terrorism training

•Emergency preparedness drills and exercises

•Public awareness and preparedness campaigns

Port Security350 ports; 17,000 security boardings; 1,240 escorts high-value U.S. naval vessels, 850 escorts of Vessels carrying dangerous cargoes (Customs and Border Protection, 2011)95,000 miles of coastline (bays, lakes, rivers)

Security begins in foreign ports where the Coast Guard conducts foreign port assessments

Screening and targeting operations provide critical information

Offshore cutter fleet (launch boats and aircraft), conduct vessel escorts, and inspect vessels and facilities

International Port Security Program allows Coast Guard to assign personnel at foreign ports; risk mitigation

COASTWATCH (Partnership U.S. Naval Intelligence and Customs and Border Protection)257,000 ship arrivalsPeople and cargo (uncover/disrupt human smuggling, 2010:Screened 71.2 million people

Container Security Initiative (cargo containers identified and inspected)

TOC networks stole $188 million of intellectual property material from U.S. Port and mail facilities (http://www.whitehouse.gov, July 25, 2011).

Maritime SecurityPresident’s major concerns is 10million cargo containers , 611 foreign ports, 27,000 cargo containers per day; terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons; nuclear materials (CBP Domestic Nuclear Detection Office)

Global supply chain security

Technology did not deliver; no 100% scanning

World saw “U.S. Centric” policy

What is acceptable level for security for containers

Small vessel threat (larger ship, cruise, ports)Piracy (Somali style)(“adaptive adversary”)Ransoms as high as $12m for seized vesselsAttention of transnational organized governance (over 50% of energy comes from offshore sources); domestic ports, declining budgets

Nuclear ThreatImpact of nuclear detonation will be catastrophic, decade long effects, mass political and economic chaos, widespread trauma

Nuclear explosion device, radiological dispersal device “dirty bomb” and sabotage of nuclear-power plants, nuclear research units, or other nuclear facilities

Al-Qaeda and North Caucasus terrorist groups made statements that they seek nuclear weapons & have tried to acquire them; Aum Shinrikyo, Japanese cult group systematically sought such weapons

Make, deliver, and detonate a crude nuclear bomb if it could obtain sufficient fissile material (Abstract, U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism; Belfer Center; Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies; May 2011)

Contributors (Joint Threat Assessment.pdf, p. 4-5(OPEN;http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Joint-Threat-Assessment%20ENG%2027%20May%202011.pdf)

Pathways to the bomb

• Purchase or theft of a nuclear weapon

• Constructing an Improvised Nuclear Device

• Sabotage of a nuclear facility

• Radiological dispersal device or “dirty bomb”

The “mix”

Terrorist leadershipCollaborationNuclear material and expertiseOperational supportAttack team

Nuclear pathways ”Those who say building a nuclear weapon is easy, … are very wrong; those who say that building a crude device is very difficult are even more wrong” Harold Agnew, former head of Los Alamos National laboratory

Stolen or bought on black market (e.g. political instability in Pakistan; terrorist groups might gain access to Pakistani nuclear weapons; International Atomic Energy Agency documented 20 confirmed cases of theft or loss of HEU or plutonium; unknown, undetected numbers_)

Use of an improvised nuclear device built by terrorists or nuclear specialists recruited by terrorist group (acceleration of technological progress and globalization of information make nuclear weapons technology more accessible; while nuclear black market eases access to weapons-usable fissile materials).

Terrorist or accomplice with fissile material produced themselves (highly enriched uranium, or plutonium produced or reprocessed

Nuclear bomb or materials from a state. Example, N. Korea willing to sell missile technology, transferred plutonium production reactor technology to Syria

The U.S. Electric GridHistory has repeatedly shown humanity to be susceptible to malignant dangers that approach inaudibly and nestle among us with innocuous countenance until a day of sudden calamity finds us empty-handed, broken-hearted, and without excuse (Fred Upton, R-MI, Chairman – Subcommittee on Energy and Power (May 31, 2011). Vast network of interconnected transmission lines, distribution systems, generation facilities, and related communication systems

200,000 miles of transmission lines

800,000 megawatts of generating capacity

300 million people served

Valued at over $1 trillion

Threats to the Grid

Cyber attacks: disrupt or control software or other applications

Physical attack: expose nation to physical and economic harm

Electromagnetic Pulse: goemagnetic storm, intentional electromagnetic interference, high altitude detonation of nuclear weapon (may include major solar storm the invisible force of ionized particles that can overwhelm and destroy the grid and electronic communication, equipment, circuits, and computers

Unavailability of large transformers: Large transformers, essential to reliable operation of the grid are manufactured outside the U.S. and replacement may take two years or longer to acquire.

U.S. society and economy are so critically dependent upon the availability of electricity that a significant collapse of the grid, precipitated by a major natural or man-made EMP event could result in catastrophic casualties.

More Concerns With the Grid

Night Dragon: China based, targeted critical infrastructure of energy and petrochemical companies; breached computer systems of key assets

“Race condition:” NE software malfunction (2003) cascading effect of only three power lines affecting 55 million citizens; including disruption to water supplies, transportation systems, and cellular communications

History: English Astronomer Richard Carrington (1859)identified and chronicled a major geomagnetic solar storm which intensified the Northern light and disabled the world’s only telegraph system at the time

1962 discovery that a high altitude (400 km) nuclear blast with 100 kilotons would cause catastrophic loss to U.S. infrastructure, electricity, transportation, water and food supply, medical care, financial networks, telecommunications, and broadcasting systems.

Determined adversary: EMP attack with short/medium range missile to loft a nuclear warhead, Iran, “world’s leading sponsor of international terrorism,” has practiced launching a mobile ballistic missile from a vessel in the Caspian sea.

Public Health Issues

HIV/AIDS: Large percentages of women and children trafficked for sex Zimbabwe: up to 40% of workforce will be lost by 2015 AIDS/STDs are national security threat S. Africa: 70.4% of injecting drug use and commercial sex 2005: first time National Security Council fought infectious diseases

Once eradicated diseases and viruses

Threat GroupsGen. Michael Hayden, former CIA Director

http://video.foxnews.com/v/1148543361001/haydens-top-5-security-threats/

Iran and proliferation “inexorably on path to develop nuclear capability” (September, 8, 2011); Syria; N. Korea

Al-Qaeda and its affiliate network (simple plots, not like 9/11; Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Pakistan, Islam lone wolf, self-radicalized; Jemaah Islamiyah (SE Asia)(Some American citizens inspired, travel, support, finance, plot against U.S. Mexico violence and instability, growth of DTOs

China not necessarily a threat but growing power

Lack of cyber defense

Transnational crime groups: specialize, durable hierarchical structure, employ systemic violence and corruption, extend activities into legal economy (debate as to ad hoc, loosely knit, cellular not supported by literature)

Foreign Terrorist Organizations, (U.S. Department of State; Title 22 USC 2656f)

Secretary of State; Attorney General; Secretary of TreasuryForeign organization; engaged in terrorist activity; threaten U.S.

Aum ShinnikyoCommunist Party of the PhillipinesHAMAS Islamic Resistance MovementIslamic Jihad UnionNational Liberation Army (ELN)Al-Qaeda (Iraq, Arabian Peninsula, Islamic Maghreb)Revolutionary Armed Forces of ColombiaRevolutionary StruggleShining Path (Sendero Luminosa, SL)Tehnik-e Taliban PakistanJundallahArmy of IslamIndian Mujahideen

Transnational Organized Crime Groups

Fluid alliances with other networks around the world, engaging in:

•Cybercrime

•Providing support for terrorism

•Connecting to and enabling information systems technologies

•Forging alliances with failed states or contested spaces

•Undermining competition in world strategic markets

•Creating potential for the transfer of WMD

•Expanding narco-trafficking and human and weapons smuggling

al Qaeda terrorists documented with MS-1 gangs (McPhee, 2005, in Breach, 2011) Human smuggling/trafficking linked to terrorism (Human Smuggling and Trafficking Center, 2005)

Terrorist Safe Havens(U.S. Dept. of State, Coordinator for Counterterrorism; 2010;http://www.state.gov.)

“Ungoverned, under-governed, or ill-governed areas of a country and non-physical areas where terrorists that constitute a threat to U.S. national security interests are able to organize, plan, raise funds, communicate, recruit, train, and operate in relative security because of inadequate governance capacity, political will, or both. Physical safe havens provide security for terrorist leaders, allowing them to plan acts of terrorism around the world” (http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2009/140891.htm, retrieved Nov. 17, 2011).

Africa Somalia and the Trans-Sahara (Mali, Niger, Mauritania, Algeria)

East Asia and Pacific Areas of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Phillippines

Middle East Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen

South Asia Afghanistan, Pakistan

Western Hemisphere Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay

Espionage

Counter intelligence Security: Foreign spies stealing U.S. economic secrets in cyberspace (Report to Congress on Foreign Economic Collection and Industrial Espionage, 2009-2011)October 2011.

U.S. technologies and trade secrets are being stolen

The U.S. considers national security the predominant issue. In 2007, the U.S. spent $43.5 billion on spy satellites (excluding budget for military)

Russian spy Christopher Metsos, right, swaps information in a “brush pass” with an official from the Russian Mission in New York, 2004. The image was released by the FBI as part of a FOIA request (FBI, Nov. 17, 2011)

“In the area of espionage, ‘nations will always try to learn one another’s secrets to gain political, military, or economic advantage. Because so much sensitive data is stored on computer networks, our adversaries often find it as effective to steal secrets through cyber intrusion’” (Nov. 17, 2011)

Common themes

• Enhance security

• Improve efficiency and effectiveness

• Strengthen stakeholder partnerships

• Employ a systems management approach

• Research and analysis; info exchange; “best practices”

“Our central goal . . . Is to prevent violent extremists and their supporters from inspiring, radicalizing, financing, or recruiting individuals or groups in the U.S. to commit acts of violence. The U.S. will work tirelessly . . . to [ensure] they fail to gain a foothold in our country. Achieving this aim requires that we all work together – government, communities, the private sector, the general public, and others to – develop effective programs and initiatives” (Empowering Local Partners, President Obama, August 2011).

Security Efforts

Security Studies Programs

Border Security (Online and Hybrid) Bachelor of Security Studies (B.S.S.) in Border and

Homeland Security

Criminal Justice (On-Campus and Hybrid) Bachelor of Arts in Criminal Justice (B.A.) Bachelor of Science in Criminal Justice (B.S.)

Cultural Competence/Fluency and Security Studies (Online and Hybrid)

Bachelor of Security Studies (B.S.S.) in Culture and Security Studies

Intelligence, Security Studies, and Analysis (Online and Hybrid)

Bachelor of Security Studies (B.S.S.) in Intelligence, Security Studies, and Analysis

• Top rated faculty (few adjuncts)

• 120 hour degree plan

• On-line, distance-based; F2F

• 1:15 teacher-student ratio (avg)

• E-books, journals; Kindle, Nook

• Cohorts include police, military, security

• No geographic limitation

• Developing internship program

• Professor availability

Employment• Intelligence industry• Policing discipline• Courts• Corrections• Security field• Corporate security• Military• Support (forensics,

warrant services, etc.)

• 17–29 agencies $100k+ (Washington, D.C.)• 16,000 agencies 800,000 employees $55k median, U.S.• Corrections: 493k employed $39,020 year median• Security: 1m employed $41k median income

Thank you