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Is the sky the limit to educational improvement?
Woodrow Wilson Center ConferenceWashington, D.C., 16 July 2009
Prof. Andreas SchleicherHead, Indicators and Analysis Division
OECD Directorate for Education
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There is nowhere to hideThe yardstick for success is no longer improvement by national
standards but the best performing education systems
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A world of change in baseline qualificationsApproximated by percentage of persons with high school or equivalent qualfications
in the age groups 55-64, 45-55, 45-44 und 25-34 years
%
1. Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes 2. Year of reference 20043. Including some ISCED 3C short programmes 3. Year of reference 2003.
13
1
1
27
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
dent
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Finland
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
dent
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Australia
United States (2000)
Finland
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
AustraliaFinland
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
Tertiary‐type A graduation rate
A world of change – college education
United States
r Rising higher education qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications.
In all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%
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Moving targetsFuture supply of high school graduates
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
202020202020G
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
China EU India US
2003
2010
2015
Future supply of high school graduates
0
2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
6 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
8 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 2 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
1 4 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0
C hi na EU I ndi a US
2 0 0 3
2 0 10
2 0 15
Future supply of college graduates
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How the demand for skills has changedEconomy-wide measures of routine and non-routine task input (US)
(Levy and Murnane)
Mea
n ta
sk in
put
as p
erce
ntile
s of
the
196
0 ta
sk d
istr
ibut
ion
The dilemma of schools:The skills that are easiest to teach and test are also the ones that are easiest to digitise, automate and outsource
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Coverage of world economy 77%81%83%85%86%87%
OECD’s PISA assessment of the knowledge and skills of 15-year-olds
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Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
High science performance
Low science performance… 18 countries perform below this line
Israel
ItalyPortugal Greece
Russian FederationLuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,
Iceland LatviaCroatia
SwedenDenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao-ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
JapanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong-China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
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Average performanceof 15-year-olds in science – extrapolate and apply
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
Israel
ItalyPortugal Greece
Russian FederationLuxembourgSlovak Republic,Spain,
Iceland LatviaCroatia
SwedenDenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgiumIreland
Czech Republic SwitzerlandMacao-ChinaGermanyUnited Kingdom
Korea
JapanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlandsLiechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong-China
Finland
CanadaEstonia
United States LithuaniaNorway
445
465
485
505
525
545
565
616
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DurchschnittlicheSchülerleistungen imBereich Mathematik
Low average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
High average performance
Large socio-economic disparities
Low average performance
High social equity
High average performance
High social equity
Strong socio-economic impact on
student performance
Socially equitable distribution of learning
opportunities
High science performance
Low science performance
Israel
GreecePortugal ItalyRussian Federation
LuxembourgSlovak Republic SpainIcelandLatvia
Croatia
Sweden
DenmarkFrancePoland
Hungary
AustriaBelgium IrelandCzech Republic Switzerland Macao-China
Germany United Kingdom
Korea
JapanAustralia
SloveniaNetherlands
Liechtenstein
New ZealandChinese Taipei
Hong Kong-China
Finland
CanadaEstonai
United States Lithuania Norway
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
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262626262626P
ISA
OEC
D P
rogr
amm
e fo
r In
tern
atio
nal S
tude
nt A
sses
smen
t
Brie
fing
of C
ounc
il14
Nov
embe
r 200
7
How to get thereSome policy levers that emerge from
international comparisons
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Money matters - but other things do too
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High ambitions and universal standards
Rigor, focus and coherence
Great systems attract great teachers and
provide access to best practice and quality
professional development
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Challenge and support
Weak support
Strong support
Lowchallenge
Highchallenge
Strong performance
Systemic improvement
Poor performance
Improvements idiosyncratic
Conflict
Demoralisation
Poor performance
Stagnation
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High ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional
development
Accountability and intervention in
inverse proportion to success
Devolved responsibility,
the school as the centre of action
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cher PISA score
in science
School autonomy, standards-basedexaminations and science performance
School autonomy in selecting teachers for hire
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Strong ambitions
Access to best practice and quality professional
development
Accountability
Devolvedresponsibility,
the school as the centre of action
Integrated educational
opportunities
From prescribed forms of teaching and assessment towards personalised learning
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Paradigm shifts
Prescription Informed profession
Uniformity Embracing diversity
Demarcation Collaboration
Provision Outcomes
Bureaucratic – look up Devolved – look outwards
Talk equity Deliver equity
Hit & miss Universal high standards
Received wisdom Data and best practice
The old bureaucratic education system The Finnish education system
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Why care?r Progress
Concerns about skill barriers to economic growth, productivity growth and rates of technological innovation
– One additional year of education equals to between 3 and 6% of GDP
– Rising tertiary level qualifications seem generally not to have led to an “inflation” of the labour-market value of qualifications (in all but three of the 20 countries with available data, the earnings benefit increased between 1997 and 2003, in Germany, Italy and Hungary by between 20% and 40%)
r FairnessConcerns about the role of skills in creating social inequity in economic outcomes
– Both average and distribution of skill matter to long-term growth (high percentages of low skill impede growth)
r Value for moneyConcerns about the demand for, and efficiency and effectiveness of, investments in public goods
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Thank you !Thank you !Thank you !
www.oecd.org; www.pisa.oecd.org– All national and international publications– The complete micro-level database
email: [email protected]
… and remember:Without data, you are just another person with an opinion
