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Andi Marmor, MD, MSEdThomas B. Newman, MD, MPHOctober 18, 2012
What are screening tests supposed to do? Definition and spectrum of screening What are the potential harms of
screening?Evaluating screening tests
Study designs Survival vs mortality Biases in studies of screening tests
Common definition: “Testing to detect asymptomatic disease”
A better definition?*: “Application of a test to detect a potential
disease or condition in people with no known signs or symptoms of that disease or condition”
“ Condition” includes a risk factor for a disease…
*Common screening tests. David M. Eddy, editor. Philadelphia, PA: American College of Physicians, 1991
Risk factor
Recognized symptomatic disease
Presymptomatic disease
Unrecognized symptomatic disease
Fewer people Easier to demonstrate benefit Less potential for harm to exceed benefit
Risk factor treatment disease Does risk factor predict disease? Does treatment reduce risk factor? Does identification/treatment of risk factor
reduce disease? Potential for harm exceeding benefit
greatest when screening for risk factors!
Caution: risk factors as surrogate outcomes
Are PVC’s after MI a risk factor for sudden death? Yes
Do encainide and flecainide decrease PVCs? Yes
Do these drugs save lives? NO! RCT showed total mortality
after 10 months higher in treated group vs placebo: 8.3% vs. 3.5% (P <0.0001)
Echt DS et al. N Engl J Med. 1991;324:781-8Moore TJ. Deadly Medicine. NY: Simon and Schuster, 1995
Does screening detect risk factor? Yes
Benefits to screening? Not studied
Possible risks to children/society? Cost, testing,
distraction from other priorities
Detect disease in earlier stage than would be detected by symptoms Only possible if an early detectable
phase is present (latent phase)Begin treatment earlier
Only beneficial if earlier treatment is more effective than later treatment
Do this without greater harm than benefit
Natural history heterogeneous Screening test may pick up slower
growing or less aggressive cancers Not all patients diagnosed with cancer
will become symptomatic “Pseudodisease”
Diagnosis is subjective There is no gold standard
Malignant
Benign
MalignantCan’t tellBenign
Why Not?
To those with a negative resultTo those with a positive resultTo all
The general teaching: Maximize sensitivity for
screening tests This is true IF
Goal is not to miss anyone with the disease
HOWEVER…. NPV already good in
low-prevalence population
Copyright restrictions may apply.
Schwartz, L. M. et al. JAMA 2004;291:71-78.
38% had experienced at least 1 false-positive;
>40% described that experience as "very scary”/"scariest time of my life.”
98% were glad they had had the screening test.
73% would prefer a total-body CT over $1000
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. “OECD Health Data: Health Expenditures and Financing”, OECD Health Statistics Data from internet subscription database. http://www.oecd-library.org, data accessed on 08/23/12.
EconomicPoliticalPublic/culturalHealth care providers
Ad sponsored by Schering: company that
makes interferon.
2009: USPSTF changed age for routine mammogram from 40 to 50 For women 40-49 over 11 years of follow
up:▪ 1900 women invited, 20,000 visits, 2000 FP
mammograms = one death prevented Recommendations criticized by
Radiologists American Cancer Society The public
Quanstrum, Hayward. Lessons from the mammography wars. NEJM, 2010
What are screening tests supposed to do? Definition and spectrum of screening What are the potential harms of
screening?Evaluating screening tests
Study designs Survival vs mortality Biases in studies of screening tests
Screening test
Detect disease early
Treat disease
Patient outcome
Screening test
Detect disease early
Treat disease
Patient outcome
Screening test
Detect disease early
Treat disease
Patient outcome
Ideal Study: Randomize patients to screened/
unscreened Compares outcome (eg: mortality) in
ENTIRE screened group to ENTIRE unscreened group
Screened
Not screened
MortalityR
D+D-
D-D+ Mortality
Survival: Denominator is patients with the disease Introduces multiple biases
Mortality: Denominator often a population (eg:
those randomized to screening vs controls)
May include patients without the disease Can be total or cause-specific…
Survival (patients with disease) Compare those diagnosed by screening vs
those diagnosed by symptoms Compare those with disease in screened
group vs those with disease in unscreened group
Stage-specific survival in screened vs unscreened
Mortality (all enrolled) Compare outcomes in all screened patients
vs all unscreened patient
Screened
Not screened
MortalityR
Not screened
Screened
D+
D-
D-
D-
D-D+
D+
D+
R
Mortality
Mortality
Mortality
D-
D-
Screened
Not screened
R
D+
D+ Survival with disease
Survival with disease
Volunteer biasLead time biasLength biasStage migration biasPseudodisease
People who volunteer for screening differ from those who do not (generally healthier)
Example of the effect HIP Mammography study (1960’s):
randomized 60,000 women▪ 2/3 randomized to screening accepted
Among invited group, those who GOT mammography had lower cardiovascular death rates
Multicenter Aneurysm Screening Study (Problem 6.3)
Men aged 65-74 were randomized to either receive an invitation for an abdominal ultrasound scan or not
Ashton, et al 2002
Randomize patients to screened and unscreened Intent to treat – analyze as randomized
Control for factors (confounders) which might be associated with receiving screening AND the outcome eg: family history, level of health
concern, other health behaviors
Screening test
Detect disease early
Treat disease
Patient outcome
Screened
Not screened
R
D+
D+ Survival with disease
Survival with diseaseD-
D-
Latent Phase
Onset of symptoms DeathDetectable by screening
Detected by screening
Biological Onset
Survival After Diagnosis
Survival After Diagnosis
Lead Time
Lead Time Bias
Contribution of lead time to survival measured from diagnosis
Only present when survival from diagnosis is compared between diseased persons Screened vs not screened Diagnosed by screening vs by symptoms
Avoiding lead time bias Measure outcome from time of
randomization or entry into study (in entire group)
Depends on relative lengths of latent phase (LP) and screening interval (S)
Screening interval shorter than LP:
ScreenScreen Screen Screen
Depends on relative lengths of latent phase (LP) and screening interval (S)
Screening interval shorter than LP: Maximum false increase in survival = LP Minimum = LP – S
Screening interval longer than LP: Max = LP Proportion of disease dx by screening =
LP/S
Figure 2: Maximum lead time bias possible when screening interval is longer than latent phase
Max = LPProportion of disease diagnosed by screening: P = LP/S
SLP
Max
Screen ScreenScreen
Slowly progressive cases spend more time in presymptomatic phase Disproportionately picked up by
screeningHigher proportion of less aggressive
disease in screened group creates appearance of improved survival even if treatment is ineffective
TIME
Disease onset Symptomatic disease
Screen 1 Screen 2TIME
Survival in patients detected by screening
Survival in patients detected by symptoms
Only present when Survival from diagnosis is compared AND disease is heterogeneous
Lead time bias usually present as wellAvoiding length bias:
Compare mortality in the ENTIRE screened group to the ENTIRE unscreened group
Screening test
Detect disease early
Treat disease
Patient outcome
(Survival)
A condition that looks just like the disease, but never would have bothered the patient Type I: Disease which would never cause
symptoms Type II: Preclinical disease in people who will die
from another cause before disease presentsThe Problem:
Treating pseudodisease will always be successful Treating pseudodisease can only cause harm
RCT of lung cancer screening9,211 male smokers randomized
to two study arms Intervention: CXR and sputum
cytology every 4 months for 6 years (75% compliance)
Usual care: recommendation to receive same tests annually
*Marcus et al., JNCI 2000;92:1308-16
Marcus et al., JNCI 2000;92:1308-16
After 20 years of follow up, there was a significant increase (29%) in the total number of lung cancers in the screened group Excess of tumors in early stage No decrease in late stage tumors
Overdiagnosis (pseudodisease)
Black, cause of confusion and harm in cancer screening. JNCI 2000;92:1280-1
Marcus et al., JNCI 2000;92:1308-16
Appreciate the varying natural history of disease, and limits of diagnosis
Impossible to distinguish from successful cure of (asymptomatic) disease in individual patient
Clues to pseudodisease: Higher cumulative incidence in screened
group No difference in overall mortality between
screened and unscreened groups Schwartz, 2004: 56% said they would
want to be tested for pseudodisease !
New test
Stage disease
Treat disease
“Stage-specific”patient outcome
(stratified analysis)
Also called the "Will Rogers Phenomenon” "When the Okies left Oklahoma and moved
to California, they raised the average intelligence level in both states.”
Can occur when New test classifies severity of disease
differently AND outcomes are stratified by severity of
disease (ie: stage-specific survival)
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 0Stage 0
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 1
Old test New test
You are evaluating a new policy to admit COPD patients with CO2> 40 to the ICU rather than ward
Deaths in both ICU and ward go DOWN
Is this policy effective?
Admitted to ICU
Admitted to ward
Admitted to ward
Admitted to ICU
Before new policy After new policy
You are evaluating a new policy to admit COPD patients with CO2> 40 to the ICU rather than ward
Deaths in both ICU and ward go DOWN
Is this policy effective?
You want to know overall survival, before and after the policy…
Looking harder for disease, with more advanced technology, results in: Higher disease prevalence Higher disease stage (severity) Better (apparent) outcome for each stage
Stage migration bias does NOT affect Mortality in entire population Survival in ENTIRE screened group vs
ENTIRE unscreened group
D-
D-
Not screened
Screened
D-
D-
D+
D+
RMortality
Mortality
Screened
Not screened
R
D+D-
D-D+ Mortality
Mortality
Screened
Not screened
R
D+
D+ Survival with disease
Survival with disease
Screened
Not screened
R
D+D-
D-D+
What about the “Ideal Study”? Quality of randomization Cause-specific vs total mortality
Screened
Not screened
R
D+D-
D-D+ Mortality
Mortality
Edinburgh mammography trial (1994) Randomization by healthcare practice
7 practices changed allocation status Highest SES:
26% of women in control group 53% of women in screening group
Evidence: 26% reduction in cardiovascular mortality in mammography group
Problems: Assignment of cause of death is
subjective Screening and/or treatment may have
important effects on other causes of death
Bias introduced can make screening appear better or worse!
“Sticky diagnosis” bias: If pt has a cancer, death more often attributed
to cancer Effect: overestimates cancer mortality in
screened group (makes screening look WORSE) “Slippery linkage” bias:
Linkage lost between death and screening/diagnosis (eg: death from complications of screening result)
Effect: underestimates cancer mortality in screened group (makes screening look BETTER)
Meta-analysis of 40 RCT’s of radiation therapy for early breast cancer* Breast cancer mortality reduced in
patients receiving radiation (20-yr ARR 4.8%; P = .0001)
BUT mortality from “other causes” increased (20-yr ARR -4.3%; P = 0.003)
Does radiation help women?*Early Breast Cancer Trialists Collaborative Group. Lancet 2000;355:1757
Mortality from other causes generally exceeds disease-specific mortality
Effect on condition of interest more difficult to detect
Screening may be promoted due to economic, political or public interest rather than evidence
We must consider: size of effect and balance of benefits/harms to patient and society
Studies of screening efficacy: Ideal comparison: RCT of screened vs
unscreened population Biases possible when survival measured in
diseased patients only, or stratified by stage Mortality less subject to bias than survival