Analyzing the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Poverty:

Seven StoriesShanta Devarajan

South Asia Region

World Bank

Determinants of infant mortality in Malaysia

Safe water -.147*

Immunization -.113*

Public medical personnel per capita

1.03

Income -1.06

Adjusted R2 .55

*significant at 5%

Public subsidies per capita to education by deciles in Indonesia (early 1990s)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Poorest 3 5 7 9

Primary

Secondary

Tertiary

Fiscal Impact:CNCA Morocco

Subsidy, millions of dollars

160%

of preventive health

1989

1990

1991

1992

Average

0 60 120

67

76

90

107

85

20% of basic

education

2. Forgone Opportunities in Maharashtra, India

Subsidies & Other Spending (Per Beneficiary), 2000-01

4615

1487

151

9250

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Pow er Subsidy toFarmers w ith Pump-

sets

Primary EducationSpending

Cotton Subsidy Total HealthSpending

Rup

ees

Primary Education in Uganda(PETS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 1991 1993 1994 1995

US$ per

Student

Intended Grant Amount Received by School (mean)

1999

Grants for Primary Education in Uganda

• In 1995, survey of 250 primary schools in 19 of 39 districts;

Primary Education in Uganda(PETS)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1990 1991 1993 1994 1995

US$ per

Student

Intended Grant Amount Received by School (mean)

1999

• In 1995, survey of 250 primary schools in 19 of 39 districts;

• Survey repeated in 1998 and 2000.

Grants for Primary Education in Uganda

8

All India Teacher Absence Map (Public Schools)

StateTeacher

Absence (%)Maharashtra 14.6Gujarat 17.0Madhya Pradesh 17.6Kerala 21.2Himachal

Pradesh 21.2Tamil Nadu 21.3Haryana 21.7Karnataka 21.7Orissa 23.4Rajasthan 23.7West Bengal 24.7Andhra Pradesh 25.3Uttar Pradesh 26.3Chhatisgarh 30.6Uttaranchal 32.8Assam 33.8Punjab 34.4Bihar 37.8Jharkhand 41.9Delhi -

All India Weighted 24.8%

Source: Kremer, Muralidharan, Chaudhury, Hammer, and Rogers. 2004. “Teacher Absence in India.”

India 2003: Doctor absence from primary health clinics by state and

reason

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Official Duty

Leave

No reason

Quality is low, even when present (Delhi doctors)

0.1

.2.3

.4%

Who

ask

ed th

e re

leva

nt q

uest

ion

Private MBBS Private, No MBBS Public

...And What They DoWhat They Know

% Asked (DCO) % Asked (Vignettes)

What they do is in blue, what they know is in red. MBBS doctors are (roughly) the equivalent of MDs in the US. Das and Hammer (2005)