Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory. · © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. Your Experts Today Jeff Janukowicz, IDC Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Jim

Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory. . .

© 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved.

Your Experts Today

Jeff Janukowicz, IDC Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Jim Handy, Objective Analysis

2

Perspective on the Market and Persistent Memory

Jeff Janukowicz Research Vice President

IDC


Forecasting

“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” - Abraham Lincoln

4


Our Digital Universe

05

101520253035404550

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Information Created WW

Information Created

Measured by the digital data we create, capture, and replicate each year Over the last many years, data has become richer However, in the advent of the Internet of Things, machine to machine communication, and intelligent systems, data is being captured in many more ways. Much of the data that is created is never stored for more than microseconds as data is created in the process of delivering content to devices that are requesting it for various reasons.

5

Zet

abyt

es*

2020 = 44 ZB

2015 = 9.3 ZB

2005 = 0.1 ZB

2010 = 1.2 ZB

*A Zettabyte = 1 million Petabytes

Source: IDC Digital Universe Study


‘Storing’ our Digital Universe

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020WW Installed Bytes Used Bytes Information Created

A storage device is rarely filled up to its capacity By 2020, we estimate a 50% utilization rate across all storage mediums. The resulting gap between the content we create and the content we store is called transient data This is where services are provided (e.g., OTT), real-time analytics and decision making occur, and where our digital world evolves along side of our physical world. Data is moving from the background into the foreground as a valued commodity

6

Zet

abyt

es

Source: IDC Digital Universe Study and Where in the World is Storage Study

© IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on Twitter: @IDC


Memory / Storage Hierarchy

7

Registers

Cache Memory

DRAM

NAND Flash SSDs

Performance Optimized HDD

Capacity Optimized HDD

Tape / Optical

Per

form

ance

C

ost Effective

Persistent Memory


The New Paradigm

8

Historical Today Near Future

Flash A lot more Flash

Perf Optimized

Capacity Optimized

Perf Optimized

Capacity Optimized

DRAM

DRAM


The New Paradigm

9

Fact is, Datacenters come in all different shapes and sizes with variable workloads – but they all will have

one thing in common – hot and cold data

In a “real time” world … Need find a way to intersect

Data at the Speed of Life


Challenge of Creating a new Paradigm

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Q1 2012

Q2 2012

Q3 2012

Q4 2012

Q1 2013

Q2 2013

Q3 2013

Q4 2013

Q1 2014

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Q4 2014

Q1 2015

Q2 2015

Q3 2015

Q4 2015

Q1 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2016

Uni

ts (

Ku)

WW Enterprise SSD Unit Shipments by Interface

SAS sATA Other PCIe

10

Source: Worldwide Solid State Storage Quarterly Update: 3Q16 Summary Nov 2016 - Doc # US40809016


“The best way to predict your future is to create it.” - Abraham Lincoln To capitalize on the opportunity:

Embrace the new paradigm Taylor the solution for the targeted applications Build an Ecosystem

Closing Thoughts …

Persistent Memory, IOPS, & Latency

Jim Handy, Objective Analysis Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates


Agenda

IOPS & latency requirements by application Alternative types of PM Outlook for memories Q&A

13


Agenda


14


How Many IOPS Is Enough?

Brief On-line survey of IT managers’ needs: IOPS Capacity Latency Primary applications System bottleneck

Original data 2012. Update 2016 Report interprets the results in depth:

150 Pages, 147 Figures, 9 Tables Analyzed by application showing changes with time

Survey continues at TinyURL.com/IOPSsurvey 15

http://tinyurl.com/IOPSsurvey


Respondents’ Application Types

16

Mail server and mail storage, 4%

Archiving and backup, 6%

Video Creation or Distribution, 6%

Scientific or Engineering, 9%

Cloud storage or services, 10%

OLTP, 22%

Databases, 43%

Source: How Many IOPS Is Enough? Objective Analysis & Coughlin Assoc. 2016


How Many IOPS Do They Need?

17

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

10 100 1K 10K 100K 1M 10M

Perc

ent o

f R

espo

nses

IOPS Required

76% between 10K and 1M IOPS


The 2016 data shows a 54%

higher mean in IOPS required that the 2012

data


IOPS by Form Factor

HDD SATA/SAS NVMe/PCIe Memory Channel

18

102 103 104 105 106 107

IOPS Supported


Latency vs. IOPS Requirements

19

1E-08

0.0000001

0.000001

0.00001

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000

Late

ncy

(sec

onds

)

IOPS

Cache

DRAM

SSD

HDD

SAN



Agenda


20


2020 Emerging Memory Market >$2B

2015 Emerging Non-Volatile Memory & Spin Logic Technologies and Manufacturing Report, Coughlin Associates

• 3D Xpoint (Optane at Intel and QuantX at Micron) or RRAM to provide intermediate layer between DRAM and NAND Flash

• Intel announced that its upcoming Optane non-volatile memory will ship in the second quarter of the year as 16GB and 32GB M.2 expansion cards. Micron will also ship in Q2

• Company’s readying RRAM products, including some noise about carbon nano-tube products in 2017


STT-MRAM

• Everspin IPO, Other start-ups in wings • ES STT MRAM with 1 Gb capacities--

replace DRAM/SRAM? • Global Foundries and others--

embedded MRAM (GF eMRAM 22FDX)

• Low Power Requirements make MRAM a great option for battery powered IoT products and automobiles

22


Agenda


23


NAND Flash Cycles Will Continue

24

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ann

ual N

AN

D R

even

ues

($ B

illio

ns)

Source: NAND Flash Update, 4Q16 Objective Analysis, 2016


Optimistic 3D XPoint Revenue Forecast

25

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

2017 2018 2019

Ann

ual 3

D X

Poin

t Rev

enue

s ($

Bill

ions

)

Source: A Close Look at the Micron/Intel 3D XPoint Memory Objective Analysis, 2015


Flash M&E Revenue Share Is Growing

26

2015 2021

2016 Digital Storage in Media and Entertainment Report, Coughlin Associates


Agenda


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Report Availability

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IOPS report available for immediate download online at: www.Objective-Analysis.com

Or order all three through Coughlin Associates at:

http://www.TomCoughlin.com/techpapers.htm 408-202-5098 [email protected]

http://www.objective-analysis.com/

http://www.tomcoughlin.com/techpapers.htm

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Analysts Weigh In On Persistent Memory. · © 2017 SNIA Persistent Memory Summit. All Rights Reserved. Your Experts Today Jeff Janukowicz, IDC Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Associates Jim