Analyst Meeting Q3/2013 - listed companyptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20131118-PTT-analyst... · 2013-11-19 · Unit: MMUSD 190 188 180 189 103 99 90 101 Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Analyst Meeting Q3/2013

Contents

1

Highlights

Performance

Q4/2013 Outlook

Highlights Performance Q4/2013 Outlook

Operation (QoQ)

• Better PTTEP’s performance from

increased average selling price despite the decrease in sales volume from Vietnam16-1 FPSO sharing

• Better refining affiliates performance due to better GRM from stock gain

• Better petrochemical affiliates performance from higher prices

• Better coal performance from higher sales volume mainly from Sebuku

• Power business performance improved from higher steam sales volume

• Thus, net profit of Q3/13 surged more than 100%

• Gas sales volume dropped 3% mainly from lower demand from EGAT

• GSP#5 incident • Weaker oil business performance

from squeezed margin as average cost increased

• However, the performance of 9M/2013 decreased by 3%

Finance

PTT Group fund raised totally 5,110 MMUSD in 9M/2013 USD Loan/Bond • PTT drawn down 310 MMUSD loan • TOP issued 1,000 MMUSD bond • PTT issued 10,000 MMTHB bond (September) • PTTEP issued 500 MMUSD bond

Credit Rating’s update • PTT Group Rating maintain at the same level

Highlights

2


Highlights (Cont.)

3

1 EMG ระหว่างการฟ้องร้อง 2. Gas resume

3. Stock gain and FX gain

Sustainability PTT: - Remain a member of DJSI World Index 2013-2014 - PTT improved Carbon Disclosure Score and performance band - CFO Academy launched TOP: Accepted as a member in DJSI Emerging Market 2013 PTTGC: Accepted as a member in DJSI World Index 2013

Key Events

Update

July 2013 • PTTGC signed MoU with Sinochem Group for

strategic alliance on Petrochemical

August 2013 • TOP awarded EPC contractor for LAB project

(100KTA) • PTTEP discovered quantities of gas in all four

wells in Myanmar Block-M3 • PTT established PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd.

September 2013 • LPG retail price for household sector uplifted • PTT’s - Divestment of B.Grimm BIP Power Co., Ltd. - PTT Regional Treasury Center (PTT RTC) November 2013 • PTT & Subsidiaries transferred power assets to GPSC & supported GPSC’s equity raising

July 2013 • PTTGC shutdown LDPE

plant (300KTA) for 3.5 months, resumed in Sep

• PTTGC’s oil spill incident

August 2013 • PTT’s GSP#5 unplanned

shutdown from lightning strike, resumed in Oct


60

80

100

120

140 Dubai FO

5

10

15

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

25

30

35

Price Movement

4

Avg. 107.23

Avg. 121.38

Avg. 30.63

Avg. 14.54

Avg. 101.27

Note: Figures are monthly average

Avg. 109.08

Avg. 96.96

Avg. 31.22

Avg. 16.65

Avg. 105.23

Avg. 105.25

Avg. 85.71

Avg. 30.61

Avg. 16.23

Avg. 97.82

Dubai vs FO ($/BBL) LNG:JLC* ($/MMBTU)

New Castle Coal ($/Ton) FX (THB/USD)

* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan

Dubai

FO


-2,496 2,801

37,384 23,566

27,647

32,050

12,895

12,816

6,500

8,028

9M/2012 9M/2013

Net Income Performance: 9M/2012 vs 9M/2013

5

79,261

• NG sales vol. increased 4% • Avg. GSP sales vol. decreased 0.3% • Oil margin decreased 8% • Avg. NG gas cost increase 6% More loss on NGV

Better spread margins Sales vol. decreased 1%

Avg. selling price increased 3% Sales vol. increased 8%

PTT

Others

Refinery

PTTEP

Petrochem

Unit : MMTHB

81,930

3%

No impairment on investment or asset

• Total intake increased 6% • Avg. ACC GRM increased 24%


Contents

6

Highlights

Performance

Q4/2013 Outlook


Exploration & Production Performance : PTTEP (65.29%)

Product Prices Net Income (100%)

Sales Volume Key Activities

8.16* 7.95 7.43 8.02*

95.14 100.33 103.82 99.68

65.16 65.71 64.30 65.96

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Liquid (USD/BBL)

Gas (USD/MMBTU)

Weighted Avg. (USD/BOE)

361 566

1,397 1,607

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Unit: MMUSD

190 188 180 189

103 99 90 101

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

287

Liquid

Gas

Unit: KBOED

293

7

QoQ • Sales volume decreased mainly from Vietnam16-1 FPSO

sharing in late Q2/13, while average prices increased in line with higher crude oil price in market

• Net income increased mainly due to lower loss from non-recurring items (FX effect in tax and unrealized FX loss)

9M • Sales volume increased mainly from start up of BKT South

and ramp up of S1 and Vietnam 16-1 • Net income increased by 15% mainly due to higher selling

price and sales volume

290

8%

5%

15%

7%

3%

3%

4%

270

2%

* Includes one-time adjustment (retroactive) of the conversion factor in Yadana and Yetagun’s gas price formula. Gas price excluding adjustment would be $ 7.95/MMBTU for Q2/13 and $7.97/MMBTU for 9M13

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others

1%

57%


Exploration & Production Roadmap : PTTEP Growth Strategy to 600 KBOED in 2020

**Reserves Replacement Ratio : 5-Yr Additional Proved Reserves / 5-Yr Production Volume ***Reserves Life Index (Year) : Proved Reserves / Production Volume


Production Volume (KBOE/D)

2020 2012

International

M&A

Domestic

314

600

Potential Future Reserves Contributors

Current Value Contributors*

MTJDA

Sales volume:

Gas 891 MMSCFD

Condensate 32 KBPD

Potential Near-term Value Contributors

Bongkot Arthit

Sales volume:

Gas 225 MMSCFD

Condensate 9 KBPD

S1

Sales volume:

Gas 314 MMSCFD

Condensate 8 KBPD

Average crude

production: 33 KBPD

First off-load in

Q3 2013 at 500 K

barrels

Montara Zawtika

Commercial

delivery expected

in Q1 2014

1st oil expected by

end of 2014

At 20 KBPD

Cove KKD

Leismer Expansion

+20 KBPD by 2017;

Corner +40 KBPD by

2017/18

First LNG: 2 Trains

(of 5 MMTPA each)

expected in 2018 /

2019

M3: Plan 8 appraisal

wells drilling in

2014-2015

M11: Drilling started

in Sep 2013

Completed 1st

exploration phase

and commencing

2nd exploration

phase

Myanmar

Algeria HBR

Yadana

Yetagun

Combined average

sales volume:

>1,100 MMSCFD

Australia Mozambique Kenya

Explore for potential

in several permits

- Cash/Maple

discovery

Explore the frontier

blocks

6 offshore and

2 onshore

exploration wells

to be drilled within

2014

Algeria

433a & 416b

Reserves Replacement Ratio ** 0.91 1

Reserve Life Index (year) *** 8


Policy Note:

* Nine months ending September 30, 2013.

8

https://partners4.statoil.com/sites/7d95497d-0f73-4d35-a8de-1b5b0a5cbb37/Picture library/_6FP6711.jpg

1,355 1,131 1,319 1,289

851 877 896 865

610 644 418 594

952 920 935 953

602 655 624 629

305 311 275 306

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Gas Business Performance : Natural Gas

NG Sales Volume

NG Customer Profile

2011

2012

2013

4,145 4,330 4,249

3,919

4,284 4,507

4,611 4,746

4,695 4,675

4,538

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Unit: MMSCFD

EGAT (28%)

IPP (19%)

SPP (13%)

GSP (20%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Unit: MMSCFD

4,538 4,675

9

AVG.

4,161

4,537

4,636

GSP - Reference Product Prices

GSP Sales Volume

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

Unit : USD/Ton

333 333 333 333

780 837 889

835

1,443 1,489 1,375

1,471

1,473 1,516 1,439 1,509

632 622

703 636

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Domestic LPG

Propane (12%)

NGL (12%)

Ethane (33%)

LPG (43%)

Unit : KTon

765 602

2,137 2,043 187 175

539 546

524 489

1,528 1,565

150 180

516 550

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

1,626 1,446

FO 3.5%

4,720

4,636

4% 3%

11%

4,467 4,704


0.3%


Key Activities

Gas Business Performance

10

QoQ

• NG volume decreased from 4,675 mmcfd to 4,538 mmcfd mainly from lower demand from EGAT

• Industry margin squeezed due to soften fuel oil prices

• EBITDA increased due to better margin from GSP following lower LPG sales due to GSP#5 S/D, despite more loss in NGV

9M

• NG volume increased from 4,467 mmcfd to 4,636 mmcfd mainly from 10 new SPPs

• EBITDA decreased due to an increase in NG feed cost, more loss on NGV and lower margin from industry

Gas Business EBITDA

Unit: MMTHB 43,005

11,076

Others (16%)

TM (58%)

S&M (38%)

GSP (30%)

32,717

10

QoQ

• More loss on NGV was due to an increase in sales volume and NG feed cost

9M

• Sales volume increased by 12%, also, feed cost increased

• No Government subsidy, while special discount given to public transportation customers

• Control retail price of NGV remains

NGV Sales Volume

Unit : Approx. KTon/Day

Vol. MMCFD 305 311 275 306

24%

23%

9,010

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

NGV (-42%)

8.49 8.66

7.64

8.53

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

12% 2%



GSP

Capacity (MTA)

6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7

New Supply

PTTEP (Bongkot

South)

PTTEP (M9)

6.7 6.7

Gas Business Roadmap

11

E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Coal

LNG Ph#2


Pipeline Capacity

(MMSCFD) 4,380 4,380 7,180 7,180 7,180 7,180

LNG Capacity

(MTA)

5 5 5 10 5 5

• Offshore compressor

• 4th onshore

• BVW#7 unit 4

6,008 6,140

17,195 18,103

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

610 524 1,270 1,629

2,640 2,510

11,389 9,644

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

3,250 3,034

12,659

11,273

0.79 0.72

0.87 0.80

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Oil Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin 1/ Oil BU - EBITDA

Sales Volume 2/ Key Activities

Unit : MMTHB Unit : THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

1/ Excluded non–oil business

12

QoQ

• Squeezed margin from an increase in Ethanol cost • Better sales volume from aviation during travelling season in

Europe

9M

• Lower margin from capped diesel price and higher average cost • Higher sales volume mainly from gasoline, aviation, and LPG • Continuously growing non-oil business performance

Oil

Non-Oil

5%

8%

2/ Only PTT and PTTRM

9%

11%

7%

2%



Oil Business Development

PTT Green For Life

13

PTT Innovation

PTT COMPOSITE+


World class quality: PTT HyForce Premium Diesel

• Premium grade synthetic diesel • Jet-fuel technology • The first and only Euro 5 Diesel standard in Thailand

• A new form of gas cylinders in Thailand • Using technology in coordination polymers and fiberglass • Environmentally friendly • Reducing carbon dioxide emissions and energy used in

the production process • Pioneering in the three southern border provinces • Target to expand nationwide in 2014


http://www.pttmap.com/

1,244 962

2,845

3,885

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

37%

23% 0.08

0.06 0.06

0.08

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

33% 25%

16,988 16,784

49,825 50,384

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

International Trading Business Performance : PTT

Contribution Margin* Trading BU - EBITDA*


Unit : MMTHB Unit :THB/Liter

Unit : MM Liter

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard

14

QoQ

• Sales volume slightly dropped from condensate and imported crude oil (out-in) following tight supply from ME tension

9M • Better margins from lower discount rate for domestic condensate • Sales volume increased from crude oil and gasoline from out-out

trading

1%

1%

* PTT only : FX Adjustment in compliance with Accounting Standard



Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

11%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

95% 95% 90%

95%

3.98 3.67 4.28 4.34 2.37

7.39

4.36 5.07

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

100.8 106.3 109.6 105.1

GRM/GIM Net Income (100%)

Total Intake Key Activities

Refining Business Performance

Unit : MMTHB

736

Source : PTT, Refining Associates Note: Weighted Avg. GRM of PTT’s associates’ complex refineries (TOP, SPRC, BCP, and IRPC) Weighted Avg. GIM of PTT’s associates’ integrated refineries (TOP and IRPC) Account GRM/GIM = Market GRM/GIM + Hedging Gain/Loss + Stock Gain/Loss

Unit : KBD

BCP

IRPC

SPRC

TOP

BCP

SPRC

TOP

Aggregated Util.

15

QoQ • Market GRM decreased slightly mainly from gasoline due to end of

US driving season and Ramadan season • A/C GRM increase from Stock gain following higher oil price • PX price increased from polyester seasonal demand and tight supply • BZ price decreased due high inventory in China and US

9M • A/C GRM increased mainly from stock gain due to less price volatile • BZ price increased due to tightening supply and high SM demand • Higher utilization rate

IRPC

Unit : USD/BBL

A/C GRM

A/C GIM

Mkt GRM

Dubai

686 724

Stock Gain 3.33 0.44

/Loss -1.96 -0.01

5.32

11.13 7.92

24%

6% 1%

6.40

728

>100%


>100%

-1,925

12,197

16,426 18,196


Refinery upgrading (TOP) • Maximize lube base oil production while

increasing Gasoline/Jet/Diesel production • Expected COD: 2014 Emission Improvement Project (EIP) • To control flue gas quality according to the new

emission law (New emission law limits SOX < 500 ppm from Dec 2013 onwards)

• Expected COD: 2014

ABS&SAN Expansion 60 KTA : • COD Oct 2013 EBSM Expansion 60 KTA : • COD Sep 2013 Lube Blending Expansion 60 m.Ltrs./Year • COD Nov 2013

Solar Power Plant Phase 3 (PPA 48 MW) • Location : Buriram , Nakhon Ratchasima ,

Chaiyaphum , Prachin Buri • Expected COD: Apr 2014

Refinery Project Update

16



579 568

406

548

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

564 545 513 581

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Petrochemical Business Performance

Spread Margins Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMTHB Unit : USD/Ton

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

2,868

PTTGC

HMC Polymers

26,785

10,352

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

87% 84% 90% 90%

Unit : KTon

PTTGC

HMC Polymers 712

2,121

17

Aggregated Util.

HDPE-Naphtha PX-Naphtha

2,104

Others

1%

10%

35% 13% 3% 26,524

644


2%

1%

>100%

QoQ • Olefin prices increased due to tight supply and improved demand, despite spread to naphtha decreased from increased naphtha price following crude oil price • Lower sales volume mainly from lower utilization rate of PTTGC

olefins plant due to GSP#5 shutdown

9M • Spread margin increased from higher demand following better

sentiment of US and EU economies • Sales volume remained despite GSP#5 shutdown


C4 Value Enhancement • LT : C4 Upgrading to Butadiene ; Expected COD: Q1/14 Quench Oil Tower Modification • To reduce naphtha to gas portion from 0.95 to 0.60 at I4-1 • Expected COD : Q4/14 Debottlenecking - PX capacity • Increases ARO II capacity

from 655 to 770 KTA (total PX capacity ARO I and ARO II to increase from 1,195 KTA to 1,310 KTA)

• Expected COD: Q3/15 Debottlenecking - PTTPE • Additional capacity of 12% • Converting additional ethylene into downstream products • Expected COD: 2016

Phenol 2 • Capture longer value chain of benzene and propylene • Expected COD: Q3/15

PTT Asahi Chemical • Start commercial operation of PTTAC

• AN 200 KTA • MMA 70 KTA • AMS 160 KTA

• COD: Q1/13

PBS 20 KTA • Start construction in Q1/2013 • Expected COD: 2015

Petrochemical Project Update

18



2.8 3.2

94.7

14.2

Q2/13 Q3/13* 9M/12 9M/13*

Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (94.58%)

Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMUSD

74 70

91

74

53 50

56

51

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

Unit : USD/Ton

Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13

2,466

Unit : KTon

2,915 Jembayan

Sebuku

19

QoQ • Selling price slightly dropped following New Castle Coal price

from excess supply • Cash cost was slightly lower from better strip ratio mainly from

Sebuku • Sales volume increased mainly from Sebuku as a result of heavily

pre-strip in 1H/13 9M • Performance dropped following lower selling price and higher

depreciation expense from new pits in Sebuku’s Northern Lease • Lower cash cost from better strip ratio • Sales volume decreased slightly mainly from Jembayan due to

lower coal price

Selling price

Cash Costs

7,957

5%

6% 9%

19%

14%

85%

1%

7,853

*unaudited


18%


http://www.straitsasia.com/


356

378

Q2/13 Q3/13

Moving Forward (Capacity) Net Income (100%)


Unit : MMBaht Unit : MW

Unit : KMWh

20

QoQ • Lower power sales volume from 5-days outage(Sriracha) in

Sep and lower power sales to EGAT • Higher steam sales volume to customers (HMC and PTTGC) • Higher net income followed higher sales volume of stream

sales

*unaudited

87% 6%

Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (30.10%)

2,086 1,934

1,052 1,169

Q2/13 Q3/13

1,357 2,035

496

Current Next Step

Renewable

Conventional

Unit : KTon 7% (Power)

11% (Steam)

1,357*

2,531**


*Including steam **Confirmed plan and on-going negotiation by Y2013




Net Income

Unit : MMTHB

100.8 106.3 109.6 105.1

669,609 723,152

2,060,947 2,092,694

Q2/2013 Q3/2013 9M/2012 9M/2013

55,919 56,691

174,527 169,989

Q2/2013 Q3/2013 9M/2012 9M/2013

12,278 30,877

81,930 79,261

Q2/2013 Q3/2013 9M/2012 9M/2013 4.30 10.81 28.68 27.75

PTT Consolidated Performance: 9M/2013

21

Dubai (USD/BBL)

EBITDA

Net Income

EPS (THB/Share)

Revenue

9M/2013

72%

17%

7% 4%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others PTTEP

72%

19%

6% 3%

PTT - Oil & Trading

PTT - Gas

Others

PTTEP

30%

40% 16%

10% 4%

PTT

PetChem

Others

PTTEP

Refining

Revenue

EBITDA

2%

8%

3%

1%

>100%

3%


650,561

701,020

506,804

513,034

328,813 310,577

143,333 169,777

729,896

788,010

437,344 464,807

462,271 441,591

12.3 12.5

0.4 0.4

1.4 1.4

2 12 30-Sep-13

Other Liabilities

PP&E

Others Non-

current Assets

Other Current Assets

L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr)

Total Equity

Unit: MMTHB

Cash & S/T

Invest

Increased assets :

• PTTEP’s Assets

• 4th

Onshore pipeline

Net Debt/EBITDA < 2.0

Net Debt/Equity < 1.0

ICR*

Strong Financial Position

PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level

− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)

− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),

JCR (A), FITCH (A-)

31 Dec 12 30 Sep 13

1,629,511 1,694,408

4%

Statement of Financial Position : Solid and Secured

22

*ICR = EBITDA/Interest Expense


23

PTT Group Performance : 9M/2013

% share

Unit : MMTHB 9M/12 9M/13 YoY 9M/12 9M/13 YoY

PTT Net operating Income 37,384 23,566 -37% 37,384 23,566 -37%

E&P - PTTEP 43,548 48,727 12% 65.29% 27,647 32,050 16%

Petro. Business 26,785 26,524 -1% 12,895 12,816 -1%

- PTTGC 24,239 25,857 7% 48.89% 11,520 12,657 10%

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC2,546 667 -74% 40-50% 1,375 159 -88%

Refining 16,426 18,196 11% 6,500 8,028 24%

- TOP 10,395 10,407 0% 49.10% 4,809 4,738 -1%

- IRPC -747 42 n.m. 38.51% -384 896 n.m.

- SPRC 3,652 3,783 4% 36.00% 1,171 1,325 13%

- BCP 3,126 3,964 27% 27.22% 904 1,069 18%

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-4,499 -1,651 63% 100% -4,587 -1,520 67%

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 1,932 2,809 45% 50-100% 678 2,216 n.m.

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 1,433 1,969 37% 20-30% 487 696 43%

Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 1,125 1,744 55% 33-100% 926 1,409 52%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 86,750 98,318 13% 44,546 55,695 25%

PTT Conso. Net Income 124,134 121,884 -2% 81,930 79,261 -3%

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT


Contents

24

Highlights

Performance

Q4/2013 Outlook


25

Economic Outlook : Challenges ahead Q4/2013

• New Financial Policy in China • Chinese try to support Yuan as a global currency Japan continues its stimulus policies • BOJ will pursuit a full-stream quantitative easing program

• Thai Baht appreciation will effect Thai Exporter • Expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 4.5-5.5%

US Market is the main focus : - US Fed Maintains Stimulus Measures

: - Impact from US Government shutdown & Debt Ceiling

EU market remains volatile : - Easing EU Debt Crisis Concern

: - Delay Forming EU Banking Union

China market is the main driver : - Maintain their growth rate above 7.5%

Thailand market is expected to grow marginally : - NESDB expected Thailand GDP growth in 2013 around 3.0% and in 2014

around 4.0-5.0%2 : - Political conflicts

- THB Depreciate as fund outflow

25 2 NESDB published on November 18, 2013


AEC market is blooming : - IMF forecast ASEAN-51 GDP growth in 2013 around 5.0%

: - Doubtful collaboration from uneven economic competitiveness

1 Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

: - Fragile Chinese Economy - Cool down China Economics by Likonomics policy: no stimulus, deleveraging and structural reform - Shadow Banking could lead to the economic bubble

109.8

116.2

122.5

117.3

107.3

94.4

99.2

108.6 111.2

106.3 107.3 106.3 107.6 111.5

105.6

101.7 100.3 100.3 103.5 107.1 108.3 106.6

106.1 105.8 106.1 105.0 104.3

WTI Brent Dubai Dubai Forecast (PTT Group PRISM)

Market Outlook : Crude Oil

26 Source: PRISM (PTT Group) Estimated (4.11.2013)

Incoming Winter demand

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) geopolitical

uncertainty

EU/US refineries come back from maintenance

AVG. Dubai crude oil price in Q4/2013 is expected to be around 103-108 USD/BBL

Forecast

Monthly Avg. Crude Oil

Concerns over US Government Shutdown & Debt ceiling

Partial resumption of Libyan, Iraqi & North Sea oil supply

Psychology level @ 100 USD/BBL


Market Outlook : Henry Hub Natural Gas Price

27 27 Source : Short term Outlook, October 2013 EIA, Street Research, Bloomberg and PTT

Forecasted Henry Hub in Y2013 approximately 3.6-3.8 USD/MMBTU

• US approved 4 LNG Projects for exporting

to NON-FTA countries

• Winter demand in US

Shale gas revolution


US LNG Project List : Rank by DOE’s application order

Market Outlook:Asia LNG Spot Price (JKM : Japan Korea Marker)

Lower-than-average temp in North Asia Hot Summer Season in Japan

Fukushima Daiichi Incident

Last Nuclear Power Plant in Japan Shutdown

AVG. JKM Price in Q4/13 is expected approximately 17-18 USD/MMBTU

• Nuclear Power Plant in Japan Shutdown

• Winter demand in North Asia

• Abenomics Policy keep policy to stimulus

Japan Economics

Alternative fuel will be replace LNG demand when JKM price keep higher.


28

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

Market Outlook : GRM

Winter Demand boost heating oil consumption

Improve bunker demand for year-end festival

29 Source: FACTS, DB, KBC, Reuters , IEA, Reuters, Thaioil and PRISM Estimated (November 2013)

Singapore GRM in Q4/2013 is estimated to be around 5-6 USD/BBL

Forecast

GO

Mogas

FO

Impact from Jubail Refinery in Saudi Arabia (400 KBD)

Low refinery turnaround, higher run rate


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oc

t-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oc

t-1

3 0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Jan

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jul-

12

Oc

t-1

2

Jan

-13

Ap

r-1

3

Jul-

13

Oc

t-1

3

Q4 2013

PP

HDPE

Naphtha

• HDPE-Naphtha expected to be around 550-650 USD/TON

• PP-Naphtha expected to be around 560-660 USD/TON

• Bz-Naphtha forecasted to be around 290-390 USD/TON

• PX-Naphtha forecasted to be around 450-550 USD/TON

Market Outlook : Petrochemical

High Plastic demand for year ended festival

Olefin price expected to remain high due to New PE plants in Asia come on-stream

30

Unit :USD/ton

Source: PRISM Estimated

Olefins Aromatics

Olefins spread slightly higher while Aromatics spreads soften

Chinese economy soften

New PX Capacities and lackluster Polyester Demand

Spread Spread

Naphtha

PX

BZ

Q4 2013


Key Takeaways

31


• Q3/2013 operation performance is back to normal

• 9M/2013 remains on track

• GSP#5 resumed operation in Oct 2013

• LPG/NGV issues are still overhung

• No concern on the upcoming Myanmar gas turnaround

Thank you PTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department

Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] http://www.pttplc.com, http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information

contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial

performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future

events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially

from those projected.

Disclaimer

Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information

In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange

and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum

Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company’s

best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its

proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources

data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This

presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”, and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated

otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.

Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering

data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known

reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations.

Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data

suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable.

Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date,

to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable.

The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.pttplc.com/

http://www.twitter.com/PTTIR

170,816 188,102 195,949229,606 221,201 224,971

72,337100,069 110,187

162,090215,469

239,223

31 De c 11 31 De c 12 30 S ep 13 31 De c 11 31 De c 12 30 -Se p-1 3

Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk

Debt Portfolio

Managed debt according to financial risk and policy

Consolidated PTT Only Unit : MMTHB

33

: Cost of debts ~ 4.8 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 91.3 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 8.2 years

: Cost of debts ~ 4.5 %

: % fixed-rate ~ 82.5 %

: Avg. debt life ~ 7.5 years

243,153

(30%)

(70%)

(35%)

(65%)

288,171 306,136

(36%)

(64%)

391,696

(41%)

(59%)

436,670

(49%)

(51%)

(52%)

(48%)

464,204 USD

THB

Note : Data as of 30 Sep 2013 (THB/USD = 31.5330 THB/JPY = 0.32423) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.

34

Free Cash flow

-59,683 53,706

Investing

9M/2012 -147,400

9M/2013 -70,226

CAPEX(PP&E, Intangible asset) -87,948 -87,851

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -73,370 3,354

Dividend/Interest Received 12,896 15,929

Others 1,022 -1,658

Operating

9M/2012 87,717

9M/2013 123,932

Net Income 81,930 79,261

Changes in assets & liabilities -62,983 -15,172

Income Tax -35,494 -41,584

Non-Cash Adjustment 102,655 99,806

Interest-net 1,609 1,621

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

89,134 162,061

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

116,140 136,924

Cash In/(Out)

-27,006 25,137

Adjustment

-2,342 2,614

34

Financing 35,019 -31,183

Repayment Loans -58,809 -45,495

Interest paid -14,401 -14,141

Dividend paid -42,729 -31,571

Received from share issue 4,819 -

Received from loans/Bonds 146,139 60,024

Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows for 9M 2013 & 2012

35

Free Cash flow

28,724 40,317

Financing -30,167 -20,832

Repayment Loans -32,176 -29,831

Interest paid -8,729 -9,421

Dividend paid -34,262 -22,841

Received from share issue - -

Received from loans/Bonds 45,000 41,261

Investing

9M/2012 -437

9M/2013 20,835

CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) -15,672 -15,081

Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) -1,287 2,667

Dividend/Interest Received 27,801 34,953

Others -11,279 -1,704

Operating

9M/2012 29,161

9M/2013 19,482

Net Income 65,889 57,576

Changes in assets & liabilities -23,687 -22,439

Income Tax -2,343 -1,833

Non-Cash Adjustment -11,613 -14,619

Interest - net 915 797

Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents

49,520 67,050

Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents

51,341 47,641

Cash In/(Out)

-1,821 19,409

Adjustment

-378 -76

35

Statements of Cash Flows for Year 9M 2013 & 2012 (PTT Only)

36

PTT Group Performance : Q3/2013

% share

Unit : MMTHB Q2/13 Q3/13 QoQ Q2/13 Q3/13 QoQ

PTT Net operating Income 4,213 7,320 74% 4,213 7,320 74%

E&P - PTTEP 10,664 17,805 67% 65.29% 7,595 11,853 56%

Petro. Business 2,868 10,352 n.m. 1,457 4,817 n.m.

- PTTGC 4,172 9,610 n.m. 48.89% 2,243 4,589 n.m.

- HMC/PPCL/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/ PTTES/

PTTME/PTTMCC-1,304 742 n.m. 40-50% -786 228 n.m.

Refining -1,925 12,197 n.m. -1,237 5,439 n.m.

- TOP -1,565 7,609 n.m. 49.10% -976 3,898 n.m.

- IRPC -1,159 1,048 n.m. 38.51% -446 393 n.m.

- SPRC 392 2,181 n.m. 36.00% 73 800 n.m.

- BCP 407 1,359 n.m. 27.22% 112 348 n.m.

Inter- PTTI group

(PTTAPM,EMG,PTTML,FLNG),PTTGE-801 75 n.m. 100% -801 90 n.m.

Gas -PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M)/ PTTLNG 740 1,060 43% 50-100% 480 642 34%

Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP/ CHPP/ BIP/ BIC/ NNEG 598 611 2% 20-30% 185 178 -4%

Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/Others 587 633 8% 33-100% 386 548 42%

Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 12,731 42,733 n.m. 8,065 23,567 n.m.

PTT Conso. Net Income 16,944 50,053 n.m. 12,278 30,887 n.m.

Performance 100% Equity Method % PTT

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00% Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00% PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00% Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC* 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00% PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00% Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Vietnam LPG Co., Ltd. VLPG 45.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 33.19% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. PA(Huizhou) 25.00% PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00016% Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%

37

Others

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00% Combined Heat and Power producing Co.,Ltd CHPP 100.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Thai Solar Renewable Co., Ltd TSR 40.00% Associates Equity Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd. TP 26.00% Nava Nakorn Electricity Generation NNEG 30.00% Bangpa-in Cogeneration, Ltd BIC 25.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd GPSC 30.10% Others Cost Ratchaburi Power Co., Ltd. RPCL 15.00%

Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL 100.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00% Associates Equity PTT Global Chemical Plc. PTTGC 48.89% PTT Maintenance and Engineering PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Proportionate HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PMBC 50.00% Refining Associates Equity Thai Oil Plc. TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc. IRPC 38.51% Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00% Bangchak Petroleum Plc. BCP 27.22% Others Fair Value Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%

Subsidiaries Consolidate Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%

International Trading Business Group

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%

Remark : * Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.

Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group

Associates Equity PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd. PTTICT 20.00%

E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group

Data as of 30 Sep 2013

International Investment

Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Co., Ltd. PTTI 100.00%

PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%

Indigenous (20%)

Imported Refined Petroleum Products 76 KBD

860 KBD (**)

Source: PTIT

Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries= 886 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 103 KBD

(**) Not included Inventory

KBD = Thousand Barrels per day

Import (80%)

Crude/ Condensate 863 KBD

Refined Products 989 KBD*

Domestic

Crude/ Condensate 214 KBD

Supply Production Sales

Export

226 KBD

Oil Balance Thailand: Jan - Sep 2013

939 KBD

241 KBD

Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply

Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,087 KBD

PTT’s Associated Refineries : 910 KBD

(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC, BCP)

Other Refineries : 177 KBD (ESSO)

Refined Products 199 KBD

38

Crude Export 27 KBD

Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Sep 2013

Gulf of Thailand (75%)

Power (59%)

Industry (14%)

NGV (6%)

Petrochemical Feedstock

(15%)

Industry Household

Transportation (6%)

Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL

LPG/NGL

Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3

Main driver of the Thai economy

Supply Production Sales

39

LNG

21%

Myanmar

79%

962 MMSCFD (21%)

Methane 1,486 MMSCFD

Onshore (3%)

122 MMSCFD

6 GSPs Total Capacity

2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat

Import (22%)

1,027 MMSCFD

2,448 MMSCFD

Bypass Gas 1,045

MMSCFD

Chevron 33%

PTTEP 27%

Others 40%

40

Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan – Sep 2013

Customers1 Sales Price Structure

Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs + +

Power Producers 60%

: EGAT 28%

: IPP 19%

: SPP 13%

Average Purchased Gas Price

1.75%

1.75%

9.33%

21.8 Bt/MMBtu

GSP 20% Charged at the same price structure of power producers

Petrochemicals Feedstocks

Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price

Industry 14% Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil

Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.

NGV 6% Capped at 10.5 Baht/Kg

Ethane, Propane, LPG Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals

NGL Reference to Naphtha market price

Local Cooking Gas

Export Cooking Gas

Capped at 333 USD/ton

• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions

1 As at October, 2013

Natural Gas : Strong and Increasing Demand over Long Term Natural gas is a fuel of choice for power producers and transportation industry

Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2013-2030) : Total ~ 2% : Power ~ 3% : GSP ~ -1% : Industry ~ 3% : NGV ~ 1%

41

Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand

42

Commercial Primary Energy Consumption

Source : EPPO/ PDP 2010 Revised 3 (June 2012)/ PTT analysis as of 1 May 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2 3

2 4

2 5

2 6

2 7

2 8

2 9

2 1

2 11

2 12

2 13

2 14

2 15

2 16

2 17

2 18

2 19

2 2

2 21

2 22

2 23

2 24

2 25

2 26

2 27

2 28

34%

35%

16%

13%

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal/Lignite

Hydro/Import

KBD

26%

40%

17%

3%

13%

Renewable

2%

3,674

3,261

2,826

2,376

1,863

30%

41%

15%

12% 2%

27%

41%

16%

3%

13%

29%

41%

15%

2%

13%

1% Nuclear

Documents

Analyst Meeting Q3/2013 - listed companyptt.listedcompany.com/misc/PRESN/20131118-PTT-analyst... · 2013-11-19 · Unit: MMUSD 190 188 180 189 103 99 90 101 Q2/13 Q3/13 9M/12 9M/13