Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Overview business year 2016/17
1. Transport emissions still rising
2. Corporate environment and markets
EU targets 2020 und draft for 2030
Development of market volumes
Bioethanol prices fluctuating and below previous year
3. CropEnergies: leading ethanol producer in Europe
Significant increase of production
Variable capacity utilization proves its worth
4. Financial statements 2016/17
Growth of revenues and record result
Strengthened asset base and reduced net financial debt
Proposal to double dividend
2
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
1. Transport emissions still rising
CO2 emissions harm climate
Air quality: NOX and particulates in exhaust
Policy makers need to act
Stricter emission limits
Discussion about diesel bans
Share of renewable energies increases
Reality: rising number of newly
registered cars
2016 (D) 3,350,000 cars (+4%)
thereof 425,000 SUV ( +25%)
and 11,000 e-cars (-8%)
3
Source: uba.de
Climate balance 2016 (Germany): Almost 4 mn t more GHG than 2015 –
transport sector even exceeds 1990 level
20/3/2017
* Short-term forecast UBA, March 2017
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
166
Sh
are
in
to
tal
em
iss
ion
s
CO
2e
mis
sio
ns
in
tra
ns
po
rt (
mil
lio
n t
CO
2)
DE: CO2 emissions in transport
Source: UBA, January 2017* short-term forecast UBA March 2017
CO2 emissions in transport
Share of transport emssions in total emissions
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
A renewable fuel
Carbon sequestration by photosynthesis
6 CO2 + 6 H2O 6 O2 + C6H12O6
Octane number: 116 RON
Certified savings* of 65% CO2eq across the entire value chain
Drastic reduction of particulate matter emissions Study TU Vienna, Prof. Dr. B. Geringer
Bioethanol progress: strong and clean
*) compared to fossil petrol
Core
Mantle
Crust
Atmosphere
Source: TU Vienna, Agrana
Conventional
petrol with
5% bioethanol
E5
Petrol
with
10% bioethanol
E10
Petrol
with
20% bioethanol
E20
Source: University of Maryland,
http://www.geol.umd.edu/sgc/lectures/dynamicearth.htm
4
light
photosynthesis glucose
Reduction
of
particulate
matter of
up to 23%
Reduction
of
particulate
matter of
up to 61%
Less particulate matter through bioethanol in the tank
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
2. EU: targets 2020 and draft 2030 (“climate and energy package”)
Transport targets 2020: 10 cal.-% renewable energies
As well as 6% GHG savings
Overall target 2030 Eur. Council*: ≥ 40% GHG savings
Draft 2030 EU COM (Nov 2016):
Overall 27 cal.-% renewable energies,
but no specific target for transport sector
Max. 3.8 cal.-% fuels from arable crops
Min. 3.6 cal.-% “advanced” fuels
About 3.2 cal.-% other fuels/energy sources
Draft puts decarbonization at risk
Capacity for “advanced” and a transport target are missing
5
Source: Eurostat (2017)
Share of renewable energies
in the transport sector
EU: targets and ethanol capacities
(mn m3)
Sources: F.O. Licht, own calculations *) October 2014
0
5
10
15
RES-T: 10% arable crops "advanced"fuels
2020 RED-II proposal for 2030
cro
p b
ase
d b
iofu
els
:
ma
x 7
%
ma
x3
.8 %
Installed capacities
min 3.6%
1.4% 2.5%
3.9%
5.2% 5.6% 6.5% 6.7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015
Share of renewable energy in fuel consumption of transportTransport
Source: Eurostat (2017)
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Certified avegae greenhouse gas savings of renewable European ethanol compared to petrol (as originally published with reference 83,8)
Source: ePURE 2016
Market development: fuel ethanol in the EU
GHG savings improved
2016: decrease to 5.1 mn m3 -3%
D: unchanged at 1.5 mn m3 ±0%
F: increase to 840,000 m3 +4%
UK: decrease to 760,000 m3 -5%
Outlook 2017: increase to 5.4 mn m³ (+5%)
EU countries prepare for EU targets 2020
EU: Consumption fuel ethanol (1,000 m3)
6
Average GHG savings
of European renewable ethanol (%)
Source: F.O. Licht
Source: ePURE
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2015 2016 2017e
Germany France
UK Other EU
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017 7
Price development in relevant markets
Strong fluctuation of ethanol prices
Sept 2016: all-time low € 427 /m3
End of Feb 2017: € 640 (510) /m3
Various influencing factors
Prices of raw materials decrease further
due to worldwide production surplus
Record harvest 2016/17 (all grain
qualities*): 2,111 mn t (+6%)
EU: decrease to 294 mn t (-6%);
domestic consumption at 285 mn t
Ending stocks at record level of 515 mn t
*) without rice
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
EtO
H/F
AM
E (
€/m
3)
Wheat (€
/t)
Euronext Paris wheat No. 2
Fuel EtOH
T2 FOB Rdm.
FAME FOB Rdm.
20
30
40
50
60
70
100
200
300
400
500
600
(US
D/b
bl)
(€/t)
ICE Brent Crude
ICE White Sugar No. 5
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
8371,030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2015/16 2016/17
352
574
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2015/16 2016/17
(in
1.0
00
t)
8
+23%
Bioethanol production (1,000 m3)
CE expands its no. 1 position in Europe
Full capacity utilization
Progress in managing maintenance and
operation cycles
Progress in efficiency
Utilization according to market situation
Increase of production
1,030 (837) ,000 m³ bioethanol
574 (352) ,000 t protein-rich, dried food and
animal feed products
3. CE: strong production increase
Production of dried food and
animal feed (1,000 t)
+63%
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017 9
Industry trends
Upstream integration along the value added chain
Efficiency gains by developing large-scale production
sites with proximity to the raw materials
Research activities
Process innovation in production
Concepts for alternative raw materials use
Expansion of product portfolio towards
adjacent sectors: proteins, basic chemicals
Optimization and test of clean
“high performance fuels”
CE: actively managing industrial processes
Production 2016/17 (by weight)
*) proteins, neutral alcohol, liquid CO2
fuel44%
non-fuel*56%
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
4. Overview 2016/17
Revenues
Bioethanol production
EBITDA
Operating profit
Income from operations
Net income
Net financial debt (versus 29/02/2016)
€ 802 (723) million
1,030 (837) ,000 m³
€ 135 (122) million
€ 98 (87) million
€ 94 (69) million
€ 69 (43) million
€ 9 (66) million
+ 11%
+ 23%
+ € 13 million
+ € 11 million
+ € 25 million
+ € 26 million
- € 57 million
10
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Income statement (I)
Revenues increase due to the strong second half-year and
as a result of the restart of the production plant in Wilton
Lower prices for bioethanol and most food and animal feed
products
Operating profit at record level of € 97.6 (86.7) million,
supported by lower grain prices
*without restructuring costs and special items
827723
802
1,056
837
1,030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in
€m
illio
n /
,0
00
m³)
Revenues / Production
11
(in € million) 2016/17 2015/16 Δ Δ
Revenues 801.7 722.6 + 79.1 + 11%
EBITDA* 134.8 121.5 + 13.2 + 11%
Margin 16.8% 16.8%
Depreciation* -37.2 -34.8 - 2.3 - 7%
Operating profit 97.6 86.7 + 10.9 + 13%
-11
8798
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in €
mill
ion)
Operating profit
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Revenues
Revenues increase by + 11% to € 802 (723) million
Bioethanol:
Lower price level (market average** 509 (565) €/m³)
Sales increase by 16% to 1,153 (997) + 156,000 m³
Own production: 1,030 (837) + 193,000 m³
+ Trading volume: 140 (178) - 38,000 m³
- Tolling for 3rd parties/Change in stock: -17 ( -18) + 1,000 m³
Food and animal feed:
Higher production volume and higher grain share in the raw
material mix
Sales increase by 63% to 574 (352) + 222,000 t
** NYMEX Ethanol (Platts) T2 FOB Rdam T2 (Future Cont. 1)
* Trading volume / Tolling for 3rd parties/ Change in stock
1,054
8191,013
229*
178*
140*
1,283
997
1,153
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
14/15 15/16 16/17(in ,
000 m
³)
Sales volume bioethanol
59%
41%
Sales 2016/17
Germany Other countries
12
1,056
837
1,030
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in
,0
00
m³)
Production bioethanol
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
(in € million) 2016/17 2015/16 Δ Δ
Revenues 801.7 722.6 + 79.1 + 11%
Total output 807.1 721.1 + 86.1 + 12%
Cost of materials* -589.1 -520.3 - 68.8 - 13%
Spread (gross) 218.1 200.8 + 17.3 + 9%
27.0% 27.8%
Further oper. expenses/income* -83.3 -79.3 - 4.0 - 5%
EBITDA* 134.8 121.5 + 13.2 + 11%
in % of total output
Lower grain prices could not completely offset the
decrease in revenues
As a result, smaller specific gross margin per unit sold and
slight rise of the materials expense ratio to 73.1% (72.5%)
of overall performance
However, this is overcompensated by the positive volume
effect
EBITDA increases to € 134.8 (121.5) million
EBITDA
*without restructuring costs and special items
25
122
135
0
30
60
90
120
150
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in €
mill
ion)
EBITDA
13
120
201218
15%
28% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
14/15 15/16 16/17(in €
mill
ion)
Spread (gross) /in % of total output
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Income from operations
Restructuring costs and special items decrease considerably to
€ 3.9 (18.1) million
Income from operations increases by € 25.2 million to € 93.9 million
-39
69
94
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in €
mill
ion)
Income from operations
*without restructuring costs and special items
14
(in € million) 2016/17 2015/16 Δ Δ
Revenues 801.7 722.6 + 79.1 + 11%
EBITDA* 134.8 121.5 + 13.2 + 11%
Margin 16.8% 16.8%
Depreciation* -37.2 -34.8 - 2.3 - 7%
Operating profit 97.6 86.7 + 10.9 + 13%
Restructuring costs / special items -3.9 -18.1 + 14.2 + 79%
At equity result 0.2 0.0 + 0.1 > 100%
Income from operations 93.9 68.7 + 25.2 + 37%
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Income statement (II)
Financial result improves to € -4.1 (-5.7) million due to the
decline in net debt; including negative currency translation effects
from € 2.1 (1.6) million
Tax ratio down to 23% (32%)
Net earnings improve to € 68.8 (42.6) million
(in € million) 2016/17 2015/16 Δ Δ
Revenues 801.7 722.6 + 79.1 + 11%
EBITDA* 134.8 121.5 + 13.2 + 11%
Operating profit 97.6 86.7 + 10.9 + 13%
Restructuring costs / special items -3.9 -18.1 + 14.2 + 79%
At equity result 0.2 0.0 + 0.1 > 100%
Income from operations 93.9 68.7 + 25.2 + 37%
Financial result -4.1 -5.7 + 1.6 + 28%
Earnings before income taxes 89.8 63.0 + 26.8 + 43%
Taxes on income -21.0 -20.3 - 0.7 - 3%
Net earnings for the period 68.8 42.6 + 26.1 + 61%
Earnings per share (in €) 0.79 0.49 + 0.30 + 61%
*without restructuring costs and special items
15
-58
43
69
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
14/15 15/16 16/17
(in €
mill
ion)
Net earnings/lossfor the period
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Cash flow
Working Capital rises after restarting Wilton
Investments slightly under previous year
Free cash flow includes € 13.1 million dividend payment and reduces
significantly the net financial debt to € 9.3 million
(in € million) 2016/17 2015/16 Δ
Cash flow 107.2 87.3 + 19.9
Change in net working capital -21.8 14.3 - 36.1
Net investments -15.8 -16.8 + 0.9
Exchange rate changes et al. 0.0 -0.1 + 0.0
Free cash flow before dividends 69.5 84.7 - 15.3
Dividends for prior year -13.1 0.0 - 13.1
Free cash flow 56.4 84.7 - 28.4
28/02/2017 29/02/2016 Δ
Net financial debt 9.3 65.7 - 56.4
87
107
-17 -16
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
15/16 16/17
(in €
mill
ion)
Cash flow (+) / Investments (-)
16
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Balance sheet structure
Shareholders equity rises to € 425.8 (367.2) million
Equity ratio increases to 71% (62%)
Net financial debt significantly reduced to € 9.3 (65.7) million
due to strong cash flow
(in € million) 28/02/2017 29/02/2016 Δ Δ
Assets
Non-current assets 428.7 459.8 - 31.1 - 7%
Current assets 169.3 131.7 + 37.6 + 29%
Total assets 597.9 591.5 + 6.4 + 1%
Liabilities
Shareholders' equity 425.8 367.2 + 58.6 + 16%
Non-current liabilities 65.2 103.0 - 37.8 - 37%
Current liabilities 106.9 121.2 - 14.3 - 12%
Total liabilities and equity 597.9 591.5 + 6.4 + 1%
Net financial debt (NFD) 9.3 65.7 - 56.4 - 86%
Equity ratio 71% 62%
Gearing (NFD/Equity) 2% 18%
150
66
9
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
(in
€m
illio
n)
Net financial debt
332
367426
0
100
200
300
400
500
(in €
mill
ion)
Shareholders' equity
17
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Dividend
Cash flow rises again
Payout ratio increases and continued attractive dividend yield
(in € per share) 2015/16 2014/15
Earnings 0.79 0.49
Cash flow 1.23 1.00
Dividend* 0.30 0.15
Payout ratio 38% 31%
*proposal
Share price end of business year € 8.28 € 3.80
Dividend yield 3.6% 3.9%
18
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Outlook 2017/18e
Business performance will again significantly depend on sharply fluctuating price
developments on the bioethanol markets
Forward prices for bioethanol in Europe, which, however, are of only limited
informative value, indicate a drop in price from the current spot price level
Based on continuing high capacity utilisation rates, revenues expected to range
between € 800 to € 875 million
Against this background and on the basis of current grain prices, operating profit
expected to range between € 40 and € 80 million; equivalent to an EBITDA of
between € 80 and € 120 million
CropEnergies should be completely debt-free for the first time in its corporate history
19
CropEnergies AG, Analyst Conference, 17 May 2017
Contact
CropEnergies AG
Maximilianstraße 10
68165 Mannheim
Investor Relations
Dr. Lilia Filipova-Neumann
Phone: +49 (621) 71 41 90-30
Public Relations / Marketing
Nadine Dejung-Custance
Phone: +49 (621) 71 41 90-65
www.cropenergies.com
Stock information
ISIN: DE000A0LAUP1
Symbol: CE2
Bloomberg / Reuters: CE2 GY / CE2G.DE
Transparency standard: Prime Standard
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions and estimates made by the executive board of CropEnergies AG. Although the executive
board may be convinced that these assumptions and estimates are reasonable, the future actual developments and future actual results may vary considerably from
the assumptions and estimates due to many external and internal factors. For example, matters to be mentioned in this connection include changes in the general
economic conditions, competitive product and pricing pressures and developments in the regulatory framework. CropEnergies AG assumes no responsibility and
accepts no liability for future developments and future actual results achieved being the same as the assumptions and estimates included in this presentation.
This presentation includes percentage and number rounding.
Financial Calendar
12 July 2017: Interim report 1st quarter 2017/18
18 July 2017: Annual General Meeting 2017
11 October 2017: Interim report 1st half 2017/18
10 January 2018: Interim report 1st-3rd quarter 2017/18
16 May 2018: Annual report and press and analysts’ conference
financial year 2017/18
20