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ANALYSIS ON THE FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND IN
MALAYSIA
NARDIA BINTI ZUBIR
DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF ENGINEERING
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING
UNIVERSITY OF MALAYA
KUALA LUMPUR
2012
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UNIVERSITY MALAYA ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION
Name of candidate : NARDIA BINTI ZUBIR
Registration/Metric No: KGH070007
Name of Degree : Master of Engineering
Title of Project Paper/Research Report/Dissertation/Thesis (“this work”): ANALYSIS ON
THE FUTURE ENERGY DEMAND IN MALAYSIA
Field of Study: Energy Balance
I do solemnly and sincerely declare that
(1) I am the sole author/write of this work; (2) This work is original; (3) Any use of any work in which copyright exists was done by way of fair dealing and
for permitted purposes and any excerpt or extract from, or reference to or reproduction of any copyright work has been disclosed expressly and sufficiently and the title of the work and its authorship have been acknowledge in this work;
(4) I do not have any actual knowledge nor do I ought reasonably to know that the making of this work constitutes an infringement of any copyright work;
(5) I hereby assign all and every rights in the copyright to this work to the University of Malaya (‘UM’), who henceforth shall be owner of the copyright in this work and that any reproduction or use in any from or by any means whatsoever is prohibited without the written consent of UM having been first had and obtained;
(6) I am fully aware that if in the course of making this work I have infringed any copyright whether internationally or otherwise, I may be subject to legal action or any other action as may be determined by UM
Candidate’s signature Date Subscribed and solemnly declared before Witness’s signature Date Name:
Designation:
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ABSTRACT
Malaysia as a rapidly developing country has a very unique energy profile with
mixed energy resources such as oil, natural gas, hydroelectric potential and coal. The
production of the crude oil and petroleum products in Malaysia is expected to decline
from year to year. Natural gas is the major contributor to current trending of electricity
generation while coal is expected to be the major contributor for the future pattern of the
electricity generation in Malaysia. The industrial sector is expected remain to be the
largest consumer of energy in Malaysia; while the electricity consumption from
residential and commercial sectors is expected to increase and become the major
consumer in the electricity generation.
This study is mainly about the prediction of future pattern of energy supply,
demand, electricity demand, generated, future GDP growth and environmental impact
from electricity generation in Malaysia. Most of the data were obtained and collected
from National Energy Balance Malaysia Report, Energy Commission of Malaysia and
other government bodies. The future potential of emission production can be analyzed
and calculated based on data obtained from the total electricity generation and
percentage of each type of fuel which is used to generate the electricity.
The projections under historical forecasting modeling method indicated that
Malaysia’s energy supply and demand are expected to jump 129% and 105%
respectively and total electricity demand and generated are expected to increase 58%
and 48% respectively from 2012 to 2030. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s population is
expected to increase for about 38% and Malaysia’s GDP is expected to average 4.7%
from 2012 to 2030. However, it is expected that Malaysia will be fully developed and
the economic is expected to be fully matured in year 2021. The emission production
from electricity generation also depends on the percentage of the share in fuel mix
energy used to generate the electricity; where large emission is produced when usage of
coal is at the highest share. Hence, the predicted total of future potential emission
production from 2012 to 2030 are about 7,213,758.78 Mkg of CO2, 76,307.45 Mkg of
SO2, 29,619.16 Mkg of NOx and 1,842.38 Mkg of CO.
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ABSTRAK
Malaysia sebagai negara membangun, mempunyai corak profil tenaga yang
sangat unik dengan pelbagai jenis campuran sumber tenaga seperti minyak, gas asli,
elektrik hidro dan arang batu. Pengeluaran minyak mentah dan petroleum di Malaysia
dijangka akan berkurangan dari tahun ke tahun, manakala gas asli pula telah menjadi
penyumbang terbesar bagi penjanaan kuasa elektrik pada masa kini. Arang batu pula
diramal menjadi penyumbang terbesar bagi penjanaan kuasa elektrik di Malaysia.
Sektor industri dijangka akan tetap menjadi penyumbang terbesar bagi sektor tenaga
Malaysia. Sementara itu, penggunaan tenaga dari sektor perumahan dan komersial pula
diramal akan meningkat dan sekaligus menjadi penyumbang utama dalam penjanaan
kuasa elektrik.
Fokus utama disertasi ini adalah ramalan masa hadapan bekalan dan permintaan
tenaga, permintaan elektrik, penjanaan kuasa elektrik, Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar
(KDNK) dan juga kesannya terhadap alam sekitar hasil dari penjanaan kuasa elektrik di
Malaysia. Kebanyakan data diperolehi dari laporan keseimbangan tenaga kebangsaan
(NEB) Malaysia, Suruhanjaya Tenaga dan lain-lain badan kerajaan yang berkaitan.
Potensi bagi hasil pengeluaran gas pada masa akan datang boleh dianalisa berdasarkan
data dari jumlah penjanaan kuasa elektrik disamping peratusan setiap jenis bahan api
yang digunakan bagi penjanaan kuasa elektrik.
Unjuran yang telah dilakukan melalui kaedah ramalan konvensional mendapati
bekalan dan permintaan tenaga di Malaysia dijangka melonjak sehingga 129% dan
105%. Manakala jumlah permintaan elektrik dan penjanaan kuasa elektrik adalah
dijangka meningkat ke 58% dan 48% dari tahun 2012 hingga 2030. Sementara itu,
populasi di Malaysia dijangka akan meningkat ke 38% dan anggaran bagi Keluaran
Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) di Malaysia juga dijangka meningkat dan berada pada
kadar purata sebanyak 4.7% dari tahun 2012 hingga 2030. Malaysia dijangka menjadi
sebuah negara yang pesat membangun dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi matang pada
tahun 2021. Penghasilan emisi gas dari penjanaan kuasa elektrik juga bergantung
kepada peratusan campuran bahan api yang digunakan. Pengeluaran emisi gas didapati
paling banyak terhasil apabila penggunaan arang batu berada pada peratusan paling
tinggi. Justeru, ramalan jumlah potensi penghasilan emisi gas dari tahun 2012 hingga
2030 dianggarkan sebanyak 7,213,758.78 Mkg bagi gas CO2, 76,307.45 Mkg bagi gas
SO2, 29,619.16 Mkg bagi gas NOx dan 1,842.38 Mkg bagi gas CO.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This dissertation would not have been possible without the guidance and the
help of several individuals who in one way or another contributed and extended their
valuable assistance in the preparation and completion of this study.
Firstly, I would like to thank Allah, the Almighty for giving me the strength,
determination, perseverance and ability to successfully complete this dissertation.
I would like to express my utmost appreciation and gratitude to my supervisor,
Prof Dr. T.M Indra Mahlia in giving me opportunity and kind consideration to complete
my dissertation besides sharing valuable insights to the research work. Deep and sincere
thanks also go to En Zaharin Zulkifli from Energy Information Unit Energy
Management and Industry Development Department Energy Commission of Malaysia
and Pn. Sazalina Zakaria from GreenTech Malaysia Sdn. Bhd for giving me guidance,
advice, encouragement and being accommodating to all my queries.
Special thanks to my family members especially my dearest mother and sisters
who continuously giving me support, encouragement and advice as I hurdle all the
obstacles in the completion this research work. Last but not least, thanks to all my
friends for their unfailing moral support and encouragement to complete the dissertation.
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CONTENTS
ORIGINAL LITERARY WORK DECLARATION ii
ABSTRACT (ENGLISH)
ABSTRACT (MALAY)
iii
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS v
CONTENTS vi
LIST OF FIGURES ix
LIST OF TABLES xii
NOMENCLATURE xv
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview 1
1.2 Background 3
1.3 Objectives of the study 5
1.4 Scope of the study 5
1.5 Organization of the dissertation 6
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction 8
2.2
2.3 2.4
Overview of the energy profile and energy pattern in Malaysia
2.2.1 Energy demand in Malaysia by sectors
2.2.2 Energy growth forecast
Overview of the world and Malaysia’s electricity generation
2.3.1 Electricity supply in Malaysia by sources
2.3.2 Electricity growth forecast
Overview of environmental impact from energy supply and electricity generation 2.4.1 Overview of emission production
2.4.2 Emission production from the energy sector
2.4.3 Power plants emission
8
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20
26
30
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CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Introduction
Method analysis for the future energy pattern in Malaysia
Method analysis for the future pattern of electricity generation in Malaysia Method analysis for the environmental impact from electricity generation in Malaysia
38
40
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CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4
Introduction Results and Discussions for the Prediction of Future Energy Pattern in Malaysia 4.2.1 Prediction for the future total primary energy supply and total final energy demand in Malaysia 4.2.2 Prediction for the commercial energy supply from year 2012 to 2030 4.2.3 Prediction for the future final energy use by sectors from year 2012 to 2030 4.2.4 Prediction for the future final energy consumption and real GDP from year 2012 to 2030 Results and Discussion for the Prediction of Future Electricity Generation in Malaysia 4.3.1 Prediction for the future electricity demand and electricity generated in Malaysia 4.3.2 Prediction for future electricity generation from various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plants) from year 2012 to 2030 4.3.3 Prediction for the future total electricity generation for various types of power plant from year 2012 to 2030 4.3.4 Prediction for the future electricity consumption by sectors from year 2012 to 2030 4.3.5 Prediction for the future trends in GDP, total electricity demand
per capita (toe/capita) and total electricity generated per capita (toe/capita)
Results and Discussion for the Environmental Impact due to the Emission Production from the Electricity Generation in Malaysia 4.4.1 Prediction of the future potential emission production from the electricity generation in Malaysia 4.4.2 Prediction of the future potential emission per unit of electricity generation in Malaysia 4.4.3 Review on the emission effects from various types of power plant in Malaysia from year 2000 to 2008 4.4.4 Discussion on the emission effects from various types of power plant in Malaysia from year 2000 to 2008
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68
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CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusions 105 5.2 Recommendations 107 REFERENCES
109 APPENDIX
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LIST OF FIGURES
No 2.1 2. 2 2. 3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
2.10
3.1
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
Description
Final Energy Demand By Sectors
Final Energy Demand
GDP and Population
Malaysia’s Electricity Generation Mix (2003)
Malaysia’s Electricity Generation Mix (1990-2003)
Electricity Generation Mix
Growth in world electricity generation and total delivered energy
consumption, 1990-2035 (index, 1990=1)
Trends in GDP and electricity consumption (GWh) in Malaysia
From year 1990-2003
CO2 emission at Malaysia, 1980-2006
CO2 Emissions by Sector
Research methodology flowcharts
Prediction trend of total primary energy supply and total final energy
demand from year 1990 - 2030
Prediction pattern for commercial energy supply from year 1990-2030
Final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for year 2008
Prediction of future final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for year 2030
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16
17
20
21
21
27
28
30
37
39
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No
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
Description
Prediction of final energy consumption and real GDP from year
1990 – 2030
Prediction trend of future electricity demand and electricity generated
from year 1990 - 2030
Prediction pattern of the future electricity generation in Malaysia from
various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plan)
from Year 1990-2008
Prediction pattern of electricity generation in Malaysia power plants by
type of power plant from Year 1990 – 2008
Prediction pattern of total electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia
from year 1990 - 2030
Total Electricity Consumption by sectors in Malaysia for the year 2008
Prediction of future electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia for
the year 2030
Electricity Demand per Capita, Total Electricity Generated and Real
GDP from Year 1990 - 2030
Prediction of Future Trends in GDP and Electricity Demand from Year
1990 - 2030
Trends in Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Demand and
Electricity Demand in Malaysia from 1990 - 2030
Potential trend of emission production from electricity generation from
year 1990-2008
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77
80
83
83
84
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No
4.16
4.17
4.18
4.19
Description
Potential trend of emission production per unit electricity generation
from year 1990-2030
Emission production from various types of power plants from year
2000 – 2008
Malaysia Installed Capacity in Year 2000
Malaysia Installed Capacity in Year 2008
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100
102
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LIST OF TABLES
No
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Description
Energy Mix in Malaysia from Year 1980-2003
OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source, 2008-
2035 (trillion kilowatt hours)
Major Electricity Producers in Malaysia
Table: Fuel Mix (per cent) in Total Electricity Generation, Malaysia,
2000-2010
Projection of maximum demand (MW) for Peninsular Malaysia,
Sabah and Sarawak
Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guidelines Pollutant
Total primary energy supply and total final energy demand
Commercial energy supply
Final energy use by sectors
Table Final Energy Consumption and Real GDP
GDP growth assumption in Malaysia to 2030
Total electricity demand, total electricity generated and population
Total electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants)
Fuel types consumption in all types of Malaysian thermal power plants
Total electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant
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18
19
22
29
33
41
41
42
42
43
46
46
47
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No
3.10
3.11
3.12
3.13
3.14
3.15
3.16
3.17
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
Description
Total electricity consumption by sectors.
Trends in GDP and population with electricity demand and generated.
Trends in annual growth GDP (%), annual growth final energy demand
(%) and annual growth final electricity demand (%)
Percentage of electricity generation based on fuel types.
CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit of electricity
generation
Nominal capacity (MW) for various types of Malaysian power plant
from 2000 - 2008.
Electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant from year
2000 - 2008
Power plants electricity generation contribution (%) from year 2000 -
2008
Forecasted for the future total primary energy supply and total final
energy demand in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Forecasted for the commercial energy supply in Malaysia from year 2012
- 2030
Forecasted for the future final energy use by sectors in Malaysia from
year 2012 - 2030
Forecasted for the future final energy consumption and real GDP in
Malaysia from year 2012 – 2030
Forecasted for the future total electricity demand and electricity
generated in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
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49
50
55
56
57
58
59
64
66
68
71
73
\
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No
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
4.10
4.11
4.12
4.13
4.14
4.15
4.16
4.17
Description
Forecasted for the future electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants) from year 2012 -
2030
Forecasted for the future total electricity generation for various types of
power plant from year 2012 - 2030
Forecasted for the future electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia
from year 2012 - 2030
Total electricity demand per capita (toe/capita), total electricity generated
per capita (toe/capita) and GDP in Malaysia from year 1990 - 2008
Forecasted for the future total electricity demand per capita (toe/capita),
total electricity generated per capita (toe/capita) and GDP in Malaysia
from year 2012 - 2030
Forecasted for the future annual growth rates of GDP, final energy
demand and electricity demand in Malaysia from year 2012 -2030
Forecasted electricity generation and percentage mix of electricity
generation in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Potential emissions production by electricity generation in Malaysia from
year 1990 - 2000
Prediction of future potential emissions production by electricity
generation in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Emission per unit of electricity generation (kg/GWh) from Year 1990 -
2008
Prediction of future potential emission per unit of electricity generation
(kg/GWh) from Year 2012 - 2030
Emission production from various types of power plants from year
2000 – 2008
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91
92
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NOMENCLATURES
Symbols
c,k
ED
EGi
EMi
Emn p
EM p
i EMP EP
p i
FGi f
GDP
i
P
PD
PEn
i
p i
PPC x y
% GDP
Description
Constant value
Electricity Demand
Total electricity generation from all types of fuel
Total emission (kg or ton) ; i = year
Fossil fuel emission for a unit of electricity generation (Emission factor); n = types of fuel (kg); p = types of emission gasses Annual emission production; i = year; p = types of emission gasses Emission from power plant Emission per unit electricity generation; i = year; p = types of emission gasses Electricity generation from various types of fuel; i = year; f = types of fuel Gross Domestic Product
Particular year
Population
Total Electricity Demand per Capita Percentage of electricity generation ; i = year; n = fuel type (%) previous year (a year before)
Percentage of power plant contribution, f – depends on types of fuel used year predicted–year start
predicted value
Annual Growth Gross Domestic Product
Unit
(J)
(GWh)
(kg)
(kg/GWh)
(kg)
(kg)
(kg/GWh)
(GWh)
(RM)
(J/capita)
(%)
(%)
(%)
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Symbols
% ED
% ECD
% FGi f
ΣFG
Description
Annual Growth Energy Demand
Annual Growth Electricity Demand
percentages of the various types of fuel for electricity generation; i = year ; f = types of fuel Total electricity generation (GWh) ; i = year
Unit
(%)
(%)
(%)
(GWh)
Abbreviations APEC
BAU
CDM
CO
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
Business-as-usual
Clean Development Mechanism
Carbon monoxide
CO2
COGEN
EE
EIA
EPU
ERIA
ESP
FGD
FiT
GDP
GHG
GJ
GT
GWh
IPPs
KDNK
KeTTHA
Kg
KWh
LNG
Carbon dioxide
Cogeneration
Energy-efficient
Environmental Impact Assessment
Economic Planning Unit
Economic Research Institute for ASEA and East Asia
Electrostatic Precipitators
Flue Gas Desulphurisers
Feed in Tariff
Gross domestic product
Green house gases
Gega Joule
Green Technology
Giga watt hours
Independent Power Producer
Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar
Kementerian Tenaga, Teknologi Hijau dan Air Malaysia
(The Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water)
Kilogram
kilo watt hours
Liquid Natural Gas
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LPG
Mkg
MSEU
MJ
MW
NEB
NEB
NO2
NOX
NRC
NUR
OECD
OPP2
PM
PTM
Liquefied Petroleum Gas
Mega Kilogram
Malaysia Sustainable Energy unit
Mega Joule
Megawatts
National Electricity Board
National Energy Balance
Nitrogen dioxide
Nitrogen oxide
National research council
Northern Utility Resource
Organization for economic co-operation and development
Outline Perspective Plan 2
Particulate Matter
Pusat Tenaga Malaysia
(Malaysia Energy Center)
R&D
RE
RM
SESB
SESCo
SO2
SREP
ST
TJ
TNB
TSP
TWh
UM
UN
US
Research and development
Renewable Energy
Ringgit Malaysia
Sabah Electricity Sdn. Bhd
Sarawak Electricity Supply Corp
Sulphur dioxide
Small Renewable Energy Power
Suruhanjaya Tenaga
(Energy Commission of Malaysia)
Tera Joule
Tenaga Nasional Berhad
Total Suspended Particulate
Tones watt hours
University Malaya
United Nation
United States
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview
Malaysia has considerable energy resources, in the form of oil, natural gas,
hydroelectric potential and coal with about 4.4 billion barrels reserves of oil. Currently,
Malaysia is a net exporter of energy (Jacob, 1997). The country registered a total net
export of 1,101,642 TJ in 2001. LNG was the largest exports followed by crude oil.
However, Malaysia is a net importer of coal and mostly to meet the need of electricity
generation (Taha, 2003). Associated gas contribute approximately 325 billion standard
m3 from the total of 1.92 trillion standard m3 of natural gas discovered in Malaysia The
hydroelectric potential in the country is about 29,000 MW while an annual energy
output is 123 TWh. Malaysia’s coal reserves are estimated 977,000 million kg. In the
1980s, the installed capacity for electricity generation mainly from oil and natural gas-
powered plants increased at an average annual rate of 9.2%. The average annual growth
rate in consumption during this period was 9.1%. The industrial sector accounted for a
major share of the growth which is 46% in 1990, followed by the commercial sector,
31% and residential sector, 20%. Over 82% of households had access to electricity by
1990 due to government emphasis on rural electrification programmes (Jacob, 1997).
Currently, Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) undertakes Electricity supply in
peninsular Malaysia while in Sabah and Sarawak by the Sabah Electricity Board (SEB)
and Sarawak Electricity Supply Corporation (SESCO) respectively. All three utilities
carry out generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in their operating areas.
In 1990, TNB was incorporated as a private company with the Government of Malaysia
owning over 70% of its equity. TNB had an installed capacity of about 7,400 MW in
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May 1995. The installed capacity is supplemented with about 2,000 MW of capacity
from independent power producers (IPPs) to meet a maximum demand of about 5,900
MW. TNB generated 33.984 TWh of electrical energy in its financial year ending on
August 31, 1994. About 42% was from natural gas, 30% from oil, 13% from coal and
15% from hydro. TNB currently serves about 3.53 million consumers which consist of
3.0815 million domestic, 429,800 commercial, 11,400 industrial, 11,200 public lighting
and 100 mining. SESCO had an installed capacity of 524 MW for a maximum demand
of about 245MW at the beginning of 1994. In 1993, it generated about 1,456 GWh of
energy. From the total energy, 56% was from natural gas, 29% from hydro and 15%
from oil. Currently, SESCO serves about 211,700 consumers which consist of 177,100
domestic, 32,300 commercial, 500 industrial and 1,800 public lighting. Meanwhile, at
the beginning of 1994, SEB’s installed capacity was 454 MW which catered for a
maximum demand of about 280 MW. In 1993, from the 1,540 GWh of energy
generated, the mix of sources was 49% oil, 26% hydro and 25% natural gas. Currently,
it serves about 192,700 customers which consist of 161,300 domestic, 27,500
commercial, 3,100 industrial and 800 public lighting (Jacob, 1997).
Electricity has become a vital factor sustaining the well-being of the Malaysian
people whereas, burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, gas or hydropower for producing
electricity creates by-products such as CO2, SO2 and NOx. The by-products which can
trigger pollution when released into environment may change the planet’s climate and
may also harm ecosystems. They form a heat-trapping blanket around the earth and
absorb radiant energy that contributes to the greenhouse effect as the concentrations of
pollutants increase. The increased in electricity production has released global warming
pollutants faster than natural processes can remove it, leading to human-caused
warming of the globe over the past, more than three decades (Al-Amin et al., 2007).
National Green Technology that was launched by our Prime Minister, Datuk Seri
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Najib Tun Razak in 24 July 2009 stated that the National Green Technology Policy is built
on four pillars, which are (1) seek to attain energy independence and promote efficient
utilization, (2) conserve and minimize the impact on the environment, (3) enhance national
economic development through use of green technology (GT) and (4) improve the quality
of life (KeTTHA, 2009). Thus, forecasting becomes an important tool in economic
forecasting through the century, particularly in the business cycles as economic
activities increase. Meanwhile, the cost of supplying energy will get more expensive in
the future. As the economy keeps on expanding, demand for energy will continue to
increase. Due to this, forecasting tools are very useful in charting our future energy
market for energy decision planning and development. Energy is vital factor in
economic development and recognized as one of the prime agent in the productivity
increase. The availability of energy, economic activity and improvements in standards
of living as well as overall social well being provide a strong relationship between them
(Ismail and Mahpol, 2005).
1.2 Background
The four-fuel policy which focuses on oil, gas, hydro, and coal is a strategy to cut
down on the usage of oil and hence promote the use of non-oil resources. This is due to
the increase of the oil price. However, during the Eighth Malaysia Plan, Malaysian
Government officially announced the Development of a Strategy for Renewable Energy
as the Fifth Fuel project to assess the use of renewable energy (RE) potential in
Malaysia such as hydro power, biomass, biogas, municipal waste, landfill, solar thermal,
photovoltaic, fuel cell and so on and so forth will be researched and used to further
diversify Malaysia’s energy sector. This policy supersedes the Four-Fuel Diversification
Policy, replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy which will contribute to preservation
of the environment.
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Current trending for electricity generation is increased year by year and it was
expected to increase more than double in the future. Between 2000 and 2005, the
sources of fuel for power generation were further diversified with the increased use of
coal, consistent with the strategy to ensure security and reliability of electricity supply
as well as to reduce the high dependence on gas. With regard to electricity pricing, the
availability of electricity in adequate quantity and quality and at reasonable prices is
necessary for the promotion of industrial development. Efforts will be carried out to
ensure stability in electricity tariffs at acceptable and internationally competitive levels.
In the meantime, strategies to generate sufficient revenues through power utilities for
future development plans will be taken into account.
From the analysis that have been made for the current and future pattern of energy
and electricity demand in Malaysia, the trending show that the demand will be
increasing tremendously year by year. The increasing demand in electricity generation
from various power plants in Malaysia will affect the environment by emitting various
types of emission gasses. With reference to the Eighth Malaysian plan, the government
has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in September 2002. As a non-Annex 1 country,
Malaysia is able to utilize the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as a mean to
reduce domestic CO2 emissions as well as for technology transfer from developed
countries. This will ultimately create investment opportunities in the greenhouse gas
emission reduction projects.
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1.3 Objectives of this study
The framework proposed in this dissertation focuses on the current and future
pattern of energy supply, demand, electricity demand, generation and also the
environment impact from the electricity generation. The objectives of this study can be
summarized as follows:
1) To forecast future energy pattern from year 2012 until 2030 and review the
current trend in Malaysia.
2) To forecast future pattern of electricity generation from year 2012 until 2030
and review the current trend in Malaysia.
3) To analyze the future potential emission production from the future electricity
generation in Malaysia
1.4 Scope of the study
This study includes the analysis of the current trending and future pattern of
energy demand, energy supply, electricity demand and electricity generation in
Malaysia. The analysis on the energy and electricity demand from various sectors in
Malaysia is also considered. This study will help us to discover which sector will be the
major contributor on the future energy and electricity demand in Malaysia. It is also
help us to discover which power plant is expected to be the major contributor to
generate the electricity in Malaysia, based on the future prediction of possible various
mix energy used. Analysis on the economic impact on the future annual growth rates of
GDP, energy demand and electricity demand in Malaysia also being analyzed on this
study. Besides, this study also involved on the analysis of the future potential emission
production from future total electricity generation and from various types of power
plants that have been used to generate the electricity in Malaysia. Therefore, from the
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results analysis, in order to gain energy supply which are sustainable and secure,
Malaysia should adopt various energy policies.
This study is not an experimental basis, so it does not involve any experimental
setup. This study is mainly involved the data analysis. Some of the relevant information
and data were obtained anonymously. Therefore the study for the future energy demand,
energy supply, electricity demand, generation and the environmental impact are carried
out with the assumption that the data given by Malaysian Green Technology
Corporation (GreenTech Malaysia) formerly known as Malaysia Energy Center or Pusat
Tenaga Malaysia (PTM), Energy Information Unit Energy Management and Industry
Development Department Energy Commission of Malaysia (ST) and Tenaga Nasional
Berhad (TNB) are accurate, reliable and acceptable. The rest of the data needed for
calculation were taken from several sources such as country reports and journal articles.
1.5 Organization of the dissertation
The dissertation comprises of 5 chapters and the organizations of the dissertation
are as follows:
Chapter 1 is an introduction, which introduces the background, objectives, scope
of study and together with organization of the dissertation
Chapter 2 presents a literature review that consists of an overview of the energy
profile and energy pattern in Malaysia, overview of the world and Malaysia’s electricity
generation and overview of environmental impact from energy supply and electricity
generation in Malaysia.
Chapter 3 deals with research methodology which includes the analysis for the
future energy pattern in Malaysia, analysis for the future pattern of electricity
generation in Malaysia and analysis for the environmental impact from electricity
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generation in Malaysia. The process starts with the data findings, interview and
discussion with the technical persons and personnel from Tenaga Nasional Berhad
(TNB), Malaysian Green Technology Corporation (GreenTech Malaysia) and Energy
Information Unit Energy Management and Industry Development Department Energy
Commission of Malaysia. The analysis was then followed with the historical modeling
method to calculate the future energy demand, supply, electricity demand, generation
and emission production from electricity generation in Malaysia. The calculations were
also involved in analyzing the future annual growth rates of GDP, energy demand and
electricity demand in Malaysia.
Chapter 4 presents results and discussion as follows:
i) Results and discussion based on objectives 1, which are on the prediction
of future total primary energy supply and total final energy demand in
Malaysia, future commercial energy supply, future final energy use by
sectors, future final energy consumption and real GDP.
ii) Results and discussion based on objectives 2, which are on the prediction
for the future electricity demand and electricity generated in Malaysia,
future generation from various energy mixes, future total electricity
generation for various types of power plant and future electricity
consumption by sectors.
iii) Results and discussion based on objectives 3, which are on the prediction
of the future potential emission production from the electricity generation
in Malaysia, future potential emission per unit of electricity generation in
Malaysia, review and discussion on the emission effects from various
types of power plant in Malaysia from year 2000 to 2008
Chapter 5 is divided into two sections, which are conclusion of the present work
and recommendations.
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CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
Final energy consumption grew at a fast rate of 5.6 percent between 2000 and
2005 to reach 1,628,743 TJ in 2005. It is parallel with Malaysia’s rapid economic
development. A substantial portion of the energy consumed, about 63%, was from oil. It
was mainly utilised in the transport and industrial sectors. Natural gas consumption also
increased rapidly in line with fuel electricity demand. The share of natural gas in total
installed electricity generation capacity remains high at 70% in 2005, although has
reduced slightly from 77% in 2000. In 2005, the share of coal only reached 22%
although the government has made considerable efforts to increase the share of coal in
the electricity generation mix (APEC, 2006).
2.2 Overview of the energy profile and energy pattern in Malaysia
Malaysia adopted the Five-fuel Diversification Strategy of energy mix in year
1999. According to this policy, five main energy sources which are natural gas, coal,
oil, hydro and renewable energy contributed to the energy mix in Malaysia (Mohamed
and Lee, 2006). With reference to our Prime Minister keynote address, fossil fuels are
expected to remain as dominant source of energy for decades. Renewable energy (RE)
such as solar, wind, biofuel, biomass and geothermal heat are expected to double until
the year of 2030 despite the fact that their share in the energy mix is around 5.9% of
total energy demand by year 2030 (Najib, 2009). As referred to the sources taken from
Mohamed and Lee (2006); Abdul-Rahman (2003) and BioGen (2003), Table 2.1 shows
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the share of energy mix in Malaysia from year 1980 to 2003. The renewable energy was
recognized as being the fifth fuel in the energy mix supply.
Table 2.1 Energy Mix in Malaysia from Year 1980 - 2003 Source of energy 1980 (%) 1990 (%) 2000 (%) 2003 (%)
Oil 87.9 71.4 53.1 6.0 Natural Gas 7.5 15.7 37.1 71.0 Hydro 4.1 5.3 4.4 10 Coal 0.5 7.6 5.4 11.9 Biomass - - - 1.1 Sources: (Abdul-Rahman, 2003;BioGen, 2003)
From the study, it is discovered that in year 1983, the contribution of natural gas
in the energy mix increase significantly throughout the years. Natural gas is supplied via
a gas reticulation system installed by the PETRONAS. It was found that, Malaysia is
being one of the main producers of natural gas in Asia, whereby the reserves of natural
gas are the largest in South East Asia and also 12th largest in the world. The study also
reviewed that the natural gas could maintain its contribution to the energy mix as the
main source of energy for the next 87 years if we were to compare with oil for about 12
years (Mohamed and Lee, 2006).
Meanwhile, coal was found to be the cheapest and most abundantly available
fossil fuel. Countries like USA and China use coal as their main source of fuel and thus
coal play significant role in the energy mix. As referred to the previous Table 2.1; in
year 2003, about 12% of coal has contributed to the energy mix in Malaysia, while in
year 2008 about 30% or 14,200 MW of coal has contributed in total energy
consumption while in year 2013, it is expected to increase up to 42% or 17,600 MW
(Mohamed and Lee, 2006; Oh et al., 2010). According to (Thaddeus, 2002), 69% of
coal reserve in Malaysia is found in Sarawak while 29% are found in Sabah while the
remaining 2% are found in Peninsular Malaysia. Mohamed and Lee (2006) also
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mentioned that, Malaysia’s coal reserves are actually sufficient to meet its demand but
we are still importing the coal from other countries mainly from Australia, Indonesia,
China and South Africa due to the high extraction cost of locally sourced coal. The
study also found that the coal reserves with low ash and sulfur levels in Malaysia have
heat values ranging between 21,000 and 30,000 kJ/kg. In Malaysia, two coal fired
plants which are located at Kapar and Jaamanjung owned by Tenaga Nasional Berhad
(TNB) while another two coal fired plants which are located at Tanjong Bin and Jimah
owned by independent power producer (IPPs) (Oh et al., 2010). According to Kataoka
(1992), the installments of gas cleaning technology will increase the capital costs of the
power plant. The installation of a wet-type flue gas desulfurization for instance has an
efficiency of removing more than 90% of the SO2 produced and will add an additional
dollar per unit kW to the capital cost.
Hydropower is expected to play significant role in energy generation mix due to
fossil fuel supply constraint and hike in the prices. For Peninsular Malaysia, its share in
generation mix is expected to increase from 5% in 2008 to 35% in 2030. Thus, TNB
needs to maintain the reserve margin at around 20% in Peninsular Malaysia. The
development plans of large hydroelectric projects under the Sarawak Corridor of
Renewable Energy which span over a period of 22 years has potential to generate about
28,000 MW of electricity once fully developed (Malaysia Today, 2008).
Nevertheless the study has found that, hydropower dams have significant
contributions to human development. Hydropower dams can generate electricity that is
clean and renewable. Besides, electricity from hydropower is relatively cheaper when
compared to other sources (oil and natural gas) and the cost will not be affected by the
changing fuel prices. Apart from that, many hydropower projects had also brought
considerable socio-economic development such as flood control, irrigation, tourism,
local employment, skills development, rural electrification, the expansion of physical
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and social infrastructure such as roads and schools as well as the opening up of interior
areas of the country to other economics (Mohamed and Lee, 2006).
Based on the finding by Mohamed and Lee (2006), the role of oil in the energy
mix is affected considerably by the depleting reserves as well as oil price hike. Table
2.1 has proven that oil contributes in the energy mix and it has declined sharply from
90% in the year 1980 to merely less than 10% in the year 2003. This occurred after the
implementation of fuel diversification strategy in 1981 due to the international oil crisis
in 1973 and 1979 (Mohamed and Lee, 2006; Ong et al., 2011). The proven oil reserves
in Malaysia of about 5.46 billion barrels and 68% are situated in east Malaysia, Sabah
and Sarawak. It was indicated that Malaysia’s oil reserves will be exhausted in next 21
years based on the scenario that the production rate is consistent at around 700 thousand
barrels per day with the ratio between reserve and production is 21 (Ong et al., 2011).
Bigger challengers are being faced in findings solution to overcome the problem
of depleting natural resources, climate change, energy supply and food security in
meeting the increasing demand for energy without damaging the environments (Oh et
al., 2010; Koh and Lim, 2010). Therefore, for over more than 30 years, there are several
key policies and strategies have been developed by Malaysian government to mitigate
the issues of security, energy efficiency and environmental impact in order to achieve
the nation’s policy and meet the rising in energy demand. The implementation of fifth-
fuel strategy 2000 that was introduced in the 8th Malaysia Plan (2001-2005) also
promoted the use of RE to reduce the dependency on fossil fuel. This is due to the rising
of global concern on climate change. In May 2001, the Small Renewable Energy Power
(SREP) Programme was officially launched. So far, the target of 350 MW of electricity
generation from RE for example biomass, mini-hydro, solar, biogas and municipal
waste as alternatives to fossil fuel has not been achieved (Mustapa et al., 2010, Hashim
and Ho, 2011). Thus, to promote low carbon economy and society in the future,
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effective policies and incentive on RE are critical aspects and should be strongly
emphasized (Hashim and Ho, 2011).
The previous study from Al-Mofleh et al. (2009) also revealed that the energy
conservation policy in Malaysia has modestly improved for the last ten years and
therefore, Government of Malaysia should focus in adopting more energy efficiency
technologies in various sectors.
2.2.1 Energy Demand in Malaysia by Sectors
According to the previous study that has been conducted by Gan and Li (2008), it
is predicted that the total primary energy consumption will be triple by the year 2030.
Meanwhile, based on annual growth rate of 8.1%, the final energy demand is predicted
about 4,856,920 TJ in year 2020 (Keong, 2005). Final energy demand is estimated to
grow at 3.9 percent per year, reaching 4,132,569 TJ in 2030, nearly three times the 2002
level over the outlook period. The industry sector will have the highest growth rate of
about 4.3%, followed by transport at 3.9%, residential at 3.1% and commercial at 2.7%
(APEC, 2006).
-500,000
1,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0004,500,000
1980 1990 2002 2005 2010 2020 2030 Year
TJIndustry Transport Commercial Residential
Figure 2.1 : Final Energy Demand By Sectors (Source : APERC Analysis 2006)
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2.2.1.1Energy Demand by Industry Sector
The shifting in industry structure, from energy-intensive to non-energy-intensive
industries, apart from improvement in energy efficiency will lead to the lower
forecasted growth in energy demand. Over the past two decades, energy demand in the
industrial sector is forecasted to grow at an average annual rate of 4.3% until 2030,
lower than its average annual growth of 7.5%. Energy intensity in the industrial sector is
expected to reduce at an annual rate of 0.8%, reaching 4,396 GJ per US$ million in
2030 from 5,527 GJ per US$ million over the outlook period in 2002. While the share
of oil in industrial energy demand is estimated to fall to 21 percent in 2030 from 35
percent in 2002 as the government promotes diversification of fuel sources. Natural gas,
with its large reserves and robust demand for petrochemical feedstock on the other hand
is forecasted to grow at 5.0% per year. Natural gas demand will surpass oil as the
leading fuel, and will account for 43% of industrial energy demand in 2030. Meanwhile,
renewable energy is estimated to grow at 2.7 percent per year. However, its share to
total industrial energy demand will remain at less than 1% in 2030. Biomass, which is
mainly used in cogeneration by palm oil industries, will account for almost all of the
demand for renewable fuels (APEC, 2006).
2.2.1.2 Energy Demand by Transport Sector
The transportation sector of Malaysia relies heavily on the road transport sub-
sector. In 2002, energy demand for road transport accounted 86% of the total transport
energy demand. In Kuala Lumpur for instance, urban transport relies heavily on
passenger vehicles, since rail infrastructure has not yet been well developed to connect
the city centre with the rest of residential suburbs. Inter-city passenger and freight
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movement rely on road transport due to limited availability of rail transport. As
Malaysia considers the auto manufacturing industry as an important driver for economic
development, passenger vehicle ownership has been promoted. Because of this, in 2002,
Malaysia has a relatively high level of passenger vehicle ownership of about 180 per
1,000 populations. Energy demand in road transport is estimated to grow at an annual
rate of 3.5%. The trend of growth shows gasoline growing at 2.9% per year, diesel at
4.2% per year while natural gas at 9.2% per year., Slowdown in population growth
towards the end of the outlook period, government measures to develop alternative
modes of transport such as rail, and improvements in efficiency for passenger vehicles
may have contributed to the slower growth rate for gasoline. In contrary diesel demand
for freight trucks will be mainly driven by the constant growth in manufacturing and
construction. Natural gas contributes to the fastest growth in road transport, as Malaysia
plans to mitigate road induced air quality problems by converting diesel-powered buses
to CNG, and promoting natural gas passenger vehicles. The natural gas share in the total
road transportation energy demand however will remain small at around 1% throughout
the outlook period. Energy demand for air transport is projected to grow at the fastest
growth rate of 5.8% per year. Malaysia targets to become a regional hub for air
transport, and is actively inviting international air carriers by providing landing tax
incentives for a number of years. Malaysia expects to increase the volume of
international air travel along with integration of economic activities among ASEAN
economies (APEC, 2006).
2.2.1.3 Energy Demand by Residential and Commercial Sectors
Throughout the outlook period, Malaysia’s residential energy demand is
expected to grow at 3.1 percent per year. The slow growth in total residential energy
demand was explained by the promotion of energy conservation and implementation of
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other environmental protection measures. In 2030, electricity, biomass and LPG are
expected to contribute about 57%, 24% and 17% respectively to the energy mix.
Electricity demand is forecasted to increase at annual rate of 4.9%, which is slower
compared with the 5.8% annual growth rate between 1997 and 2002. This is due to the
increasing efficiency of household appliances, such as refrigerators and air-conditioners.
A dominant fuel in rural areas mainly for cooking, Biomass is projected to grow at
0.9% annually over the outlook period. On the contrary, the demand for commercial
energy sources, for example LPG, will also increase by 2.7% per year until 2030 which
is slowly replacing biomass for cooking and water heating. Nevertheless, in the future,
LPG will face some competition with natural gas. The main triggers influencing energy
demand in the commercial sector is economic growth and weather condition. Due to
humid weather conditions in Malaysia, about 40% of total energy demand in the
commercial sector will be required for space cooling. With regards to the residential
sector, the government has taken initiatives to reduce the energy intensity of
commercial buildings and office equipment. Thus, energy demand growth in the
commercial sector will slow down to 2.7% annually while the value added for the
services industry will grow at 4.7 % per year. Over the outlook period in 2030, the
energy mix in the commercial sector will not be showing any significant change.
Electricity will account for about 68%, LPG 17%, heavy fuel oil 12% and 3%
accounting for natural gas. Due to the increasing demand for cooling and lighting in
commercial buildings, electricity is forecasted to increase at annual rate of 2.7%. LPG
demand is expected to grow at 2.8% per year while heavy fuel oil demand will grow at
1.9 % annually from the year 2002 and 2030. Demand in natural gas is expected to
grow at the fastest annual growth rate of 10.1%, although in 2002, it will increase from
a relatively small absolute value (APEC, 2006).
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2.2.2 Energy Growth Forecast
In 2030, Malaysia’s primary energy demand is forecasted to grow at an annual
rate of 3.5%, to reach 6,142,329 TJ, a 2.6-fold increase from 2002. Coal is estimated to
grow at the fastest rate of 9.7% per year, followed by natural gas at 2.9% and oil at
2.7%. Coal demand will increase significantly to meet the rising electricity demand. It
accounts for 93% of the total incremental coal demand which is 1,306,344 TJ. This is
parallel with Malaysia’s aim to increase the share of coal in the electricity generation
sector. Malaysia is a net importer of coal. In 2030, the imports will increase about 14
times from the year 2002 reaching about 1,398,458 TJ. (APEC, 2006).
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
1980 1990 2002 2005 2010 2020 2030Year
TJCoal Oil Gas Hydro NRE
Figure 2.2 : Final Energy Demand (Source : APERC Analysis 2006)
Malaysia’s economy is projected to grow considerably over the outlook period
with an annual average growth rate at 4.8%. In 2030, the strongest growth will be from
the industry, largely the manufacturing sector and the services sectors which contribute
shares of 54% and 46% to total GDP respectively. According to UN Habitat projects, in
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2030, the share of Malaysia’s urban population will reach up to 78% from 63% in 2002.
This combined factor with high per capita GDP growth of 3.4% per annum over the
outlook period will lead to a change in lifestyle. However, energy consumption will be
based mostly on commercial energy sources, rather than traditional biomass sources.
This will ultimately cause a growth in energy demand for the transport, commercial and
residential sectors (APEC, 2006).
Figure 2.3: GDP and Population (Source: Global Insights (2005))
2.3 Overview of the world and Malaysia’s electricity generation
In 2008, world net electricity generation was 19.1 trillion kilowatt hours. It
increases by 84% to 25.5 trillion kilowatt hours in 2020 and 35.2 trillion kilowatt hours
in 2035 (Table 2.2). Despite the fact that in year 2008, the 2008-2009 global economic
recessions has reduced the rate of increase in electricity usage, only negligible change
of electricity usage was observed in 2009. In 2010, worldwide electricity demand
increased about 5.4%, and non-OECD electricity demand increased by approximately
9.5% (Energy Outlook, 2011).
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Table 2.2 OECD and non-OECD net electricity generation by energy source,
2008 - 2035 (trillion kilowatt hours) (Energy Outlook, 2011).
Region 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Average annual percent change,
2008-2035 OECD Liquids 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.8 Natural gas 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.4 3.8 1.8 Coal 3.6 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 0.2 Nuclear 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.0 Renewables 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.2 Total OECD 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.2 13.9 1.2 Non-OECD Liquids 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 -1.0 Natural gas 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.1 4.6 3.4 Coal 4.1 5.2 5.6 6.7 7.9 9.1 3.0 Nuclear 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.7 2.0 6.0 Renewables 1.9 2.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 3.7 Total non-OECD 8.9 11.8 13.9 16.3 18.8 21.2 3.3 World Liquids 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 -0.9 Natural gas 4.2 4.9 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.4 2.6 Coal 7.7 8.5 8.9 10.2 11.5 12.9 1.9 Nuclear 2.6 3.2 3.7 .4.2 4.5 4.9 2.4 Renewables 3.7 5.1 6.3 7.0 7.0 8.2 3.1 Total World 19.1 22.7 25.5 28.7 31.9 35.2 2.3
(Source : US Energy Information Administration International Energy Outlook 2011)
Over the past four decades, the mix of primary fuels worldwide that is used to
generate electricity has changed tremendously. The fuel that is most widely used for
electricity generation is coal although from the year 1970 to 1980, generation from
nuclear power grew rapidly while from the year 1980 to 1990, natural-gas fired
generation increased rapidly. Since the mid-1970s, the oil usage for electricity
generation has been decreasing due to oil price hike. Between 2003 and 2008, the high
fossil fuel prices together with concerns about the environmental impact due to
greenhouse gas emissions, have shifted interest to the development of fossil fuels
alternatives namely, nuclear power and renewable energy sources. In the IEO2011
Reference case, from 2008 to 2035, renewable energy sources are found to be the most
rapid growing sources of electricity generation with an average annual increase about
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3.1% per year followed by natural gas with 2.6% increase per year and nuclear power
with an increase of 2.4% per year. Although coal-fired generation is still the largest
source of generation through 2035, the annual average rise over the forecasting period is
only 1.9%. Nonetheless, any future national policies or international agreements
targeted at reducing the increase of greenhouse gas emissions could change
significantly the outlook for coal, in particular (Energy Outlook, 2011).
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) for Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah Electricity Sdn.
Bhd (SESB) for Sabah area and Sarawak Electricity Supply Corp (SESCo) for Sarawak
area dominate the electricity generation in Malaysia. Other power generators are the
Northern Utility Resource (NUR), Independent Power Producer (IPPs) and co-
generators (COGEN, 2006)
Table 2.3 Major Electricity Producers in Malaysia
Major Power Producers Electricity Generation
(GWh)
% Installed Capacity
(MW)
%
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) 38,660 47.8 8,050 48.1 Independent Power Producer (IPP) (Peninsular) 31,462 38.9 5,423 32.4 Cogen 3,397 4.2 787 4.7 Sarawak Electricity Supply Company (SESCO) 2,265 2.8 552 3.3
IPP (Sarawak) 1,537 1.9 301 1.8 IPP (Sabah) 1,537 1.9 301 1.8 Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) 1,294 1.6 485 2.9 Private Generation 728 0.9 836 5.0 TOTAL 80,880 100 16,735 100
(Source: EC-ASEAN COGEN III (December 2004))
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2.3.1 Electricity supply in Malaysia by Sources
In 2003, the total electricity generated in the Malaysia was 83,300 GWh. 72.8%
was contributed by gas, 16.3% coal, 6.2% hydropower, 4.0% oil products and 0.7% by
biomass and other fuels (Figure 2.4). 45,450 GWh or 57.6% out of the 78,900 GWh
produced by the utilities and IPPs was contributed by IPPs (Statistic of Electricity
Supply Industry in Malaysia, 2004). The total installed generation capacity of the
utilities and IPPs in the country at the end of 2003 was 18,800 MW with a plant mix of
58.2% gas turbine and combined cycle, 19.3% coal, 11.3% hydropower, 7.5% oil, 3.4%
diesel and the remaining others. The total capacity of cogeneration in operation was 800
MW producing 3,500 GWh of electricity. The country's electricity generation mix from
1990 to 2003 is shown in Figure 2.5 (COGEN, 2006).
Gas73%
Coal16%
Hydro6%
Oil4%
Biomass & Others
1%
Figure 2.4 : Malaysia’s Electricity Generation Mix (2003) (Source : Static of Electricity Supply Industry in Malaysia (2004))
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Figure 2.5 : Malaysia’s Electricity Generation Mix (1990-2003)
(Source: GreenTech Malaysia,Formerly known as Pusat Tenaga Malaysia (7 Sept 2005))
In 2030, the electricity demand of Malaysia will increase by 4.7% per year over
the outlook period, to reach 274 TWh. The growth in electricity demand is heavily
influenced by strong demand from the industrial sector, which is forecasted to increase
at 5.4% annually over the outlook period. Improving living standards has contributed to
the electricity demand for the residential sector to experience strong growth of 4.9% per
year. In 2030, per capita electricity demand is forecasted to increase more than double
from 2002 to reach 7,571 kWh/person. It is higher than that of the APEC region
averaging at 6,833 kWh/person (APEC, 2006).
6%
36%50%
50%
9%
20%
74%56% 48% 45%
11% 7%
45%
1 2%
0%1%1%
4%6%1 7%
1%1%1%
1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro NRE
Figure 2.6 : Electricity Generation Mix
(Source : APERC Analysis 2006)
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A total of 6,420 MW of new generation capacity was installed between 2000 and
2005 while the sources of fuel for power generation were further diversified. The use of
coal is increased consistent with the strategy to ensure security and reliability of
electricity supply as well as to reduce the high dependency on gas. Efforts were
undertaken to reduce the high dependence on natural gas in the generation mix by
increasing the use of coal. As a result, the share of coal in the total generation mix
increased from 8.8% in 2000 to 21.8% in 2005 while natural gas declined from 77.0%
to 70.2% (Table 2.4). During this period the electricity transmission system was further
expanded. New transmission projects linking generation plants to the main grids as well
as providing connections to new industrial and commercial areas were completed. In
addition, implementation of the rural electrification programme which currently stands
at 92.2% benefitted residences in Sabah and Sarawak in particular. Peak demand for
electricity is estimated to grow at an average rate of 7.8% per annum to reach 20,087
MW in 2010. The accumulated installed capacity is planned to be 25,258 MW. (UNDP,
2006).
Table 2.4 Fuel Mix (per cent) in Total Electricity Generation, Malaysia, 2000-2010
Year Oil Coal Gas Hydro Other Total (GWh)
2000 4.20% 8.80% 77.00% 10.00% 0.00% 69,280
2005 2.20% 21.80% 70.20% 5.50% 0.30% 94,299
2010 0.20% 36.50% 55.90% 5.60% 1.80% 137,909
(Source of Data: Ninth Malaysia Plan 2006–2010, Table 19-5)
In the Ninth Malaysian Plan 2006-2010, the implementation of the Four-fuel
Diversification Strategy has targeted the gradual change in fuel use from 74.9% gas,
9.7% coal, 10.4% hydro and 5% petroleum in year 2000 to 40% gas, 30% hydro, 29%
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coal and 1% petroleum by year 2020 (EPU, 2006). Initiatives are undertaken to
enhance the efficiency and viability of the utility companies and the independent power
producers. Thus, these efforts may enable a reduction in the reserve margin while
improving the security, reliability, quality and cost effectiveness of supply to customers.
The fuel mix for power generation will mainly comprise of coal and natural gas, with
coal play significant role. New coal based independent power producer plants that
utilize electrostatic precipitators and a flue gas desulphurization process will enable
coal-based production to meet environmental standards. Furthermore, in Peninsular
Malaysia, as part of efforts to promote the optimal utilization of municipal waste for
electricity generation, a pilot project on waste-to-energy is being implemented (UNDP,
2006).
Electricity generation in Malaysia is divided into two sub sectors which are
thermal generation and hydro generation. Hydro power plants use hydropower as
energy input and are considered as renewable energy while thermal power plants use
natural gas, diesel or heavy fuel oil, coal and coke as energy input (Jafar et al., 2008).
Among the electricity power plants in Malaysia are conventional thermal, combined
cycle, gas turbine, diesel, hydro, mini hydro and biomass. Malaysia recently decided to
use coal as the main fuel source for power generation as part of efforts to reduce our
dependency on oil and gas (MSEU, 2011).
Conventional steam-producing thermal power plants generate electricity through
a series of energy conversion stages. Fuel is burned in boilers to convert water to high-
pressure steam. It is then used to drive a turbine to generate electricity (World Bank,
1998). Currently, 32% of total electricity generation and 31% of total nominal capacity
are produced by steam power plants. The efficiency of these power plants in Malaysia is
about 35%. In Brayton cycle, natural gas can be used to generate electricity. Despite the
fact that the initial cost of these power plants is lower than steam turbines, their thermal
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efficiency is about 28.8%. This is much lower than the combined cycle and steam
turbine. In Malaysia at present, around 3650 MW of nominal capacity and 17,245 GWh
of electricity generation are produced by gas turbine power plants (NEB, 2008;
Sherkarchian et al., 2011).
High amount of energy is wasted through the expulsion of the exhaust gases in a
gas turbine power plant although for electricity generation, it is possible to transfer this
energy to a Rankine cycle. Power plants that utilize this method are called combined
cycle plants. Combined-cycle unit burns fuel in a combustion chamber while the
exhaust gases are used to drive a turbine. Meanwhile, waste heat boilers recover energy
from the turbine exhaust gases for the production of steam, which is then used to drive
another turbine. Generally, in terms of the amount of electricity generated per unit of
fuel, the total efficiency of a combined-cycle system is greater than conventional
thermal power systems. Nevertheless, fuels such as natural gas may be required in the
combined-cycle system (World Bank, 1998). The efficiency of thermal is higher than
other fossil fuel power plants.
The thermal efficiency of combined cycles in Malaysia is about 43.8%. At
present, combined cycles plants in Malaysia have around 8861 MW nominal capacity.
This is equivalent to 40.3% of the total capacity and hence produces about 40.2% of the
total electricity generated in Malaysia. In hospitals and industries that require a constant,
uninterrupted power supply, a diesel engine power plant is usually used as a backup
power source. Finding has shown that about 2% of nominal capacity and 1.8% of
electricity are generated from this power plant (NEB, 2008; Sherkarchian et al., 2011).
Hydro power has been used as a main renewable energy source. Its efficiency is higher
with longer life span although the initial cost of hydro power plants is higher than fossil
fuel plants. In Malaysia, the average annual rainfall is about 2000 mm. It is quite high
when compared to the average annual rainfall of the world which is about 750 mm.
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Hence, Malaysia is considered as one of the potential countries for hydro-power plants.
In 2008, 9.5% of nominal capacity and electricity generation was from hydro-power
plants generation. Mini hydro power plant is being used to produce electricity in smaller
scales such as for houses or small shops in remote area. Due to its smaller scale, it is
unnecessary to construct a dam. At present, mini hydro-power plants have 22 MW
nominal capacities which is equivalent to 0.1% of total nominal capacities. They
produce about 106 MWh of total energy generation (NEB, 2008; Sherkarchian et al.,
2011).
Factors such as economic, political and technical parameters influence the type
of fuel that is used for a power plant in a country. The parameters include cost of the
fuels, geographical location of the power plants, availability of the fuel, environmental
concerns as well as medium and long-term policies of the energy sector. Malaysian
power generation is largely from thermal power plants that use fossil fuels namely coal,
natural gas, diesel and petroleum. Coal and natural gas are used widely for steam
turbines and gas turbines while combined cycles use natural gas. Diesel is used in both
gas turbines and diesel engines (Sherkarchian et al., 2011). The types of fuel consumed
in Malaysian power plants are presented in Table 3.8 in Chapter 3.
Renewable energy resources have no doubt many benefits but they face
numerous challenges. Firstly, the development of technology to convert the renewable
energy resources into usable forms is still not that established. Secondly, the
commercialization of research findings has not been fully undertaken on a large scale
although it was reported by several research and studies that there is a technical
feasibility in the generation of energy from renewable resources. Thirdly, the high cost
of renewable energy generation faces stiff competition from cheaper alternative energy
such as from fossil fuels. For instance, the electricity costs from biomass, geothermal
and solar sources are within the range of US$ 7–25 cents/kWh, compared to the
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conventional electricity costs such as coal, natural gas, etc which are within the range of
US$ 4–6 cents/kWh (Hitam,1999). Higher costs of energy generation in terms of
investment costs and final energy costs from renewable resources cause the generation
of energy from renewable resources economically unattractive. Hence this factor further
restrains the efforts to promote the utilization of renewable energy (Mohamed and Lee,
2006).
Lack of reliable information on the potential supply of renewable energy at the
national level is another challenge of renewable energy usage. The availability of
biomass for example is not easily computed and obtained. This is due to the amount of
waste materials, such as wood residues, palm oil waste and agricultural waste, is seldom
documented by the waste generating entities as well as by the relevant government
agencies. Besides, the low demand for energy from renewable resources is also another
challenge that may hinder the utilization of renewable energy due to the weak public
awareness on the positive benefits of renewable energy when compared to non-
renewable energy. Last but not least, the relatively high cost of renewable energy as
compared to conventional energy may discourage the public from utilizing renewable
energy. To sum up, these are among some of issues that need to be addressed
appropriately and considered in depth before expecting a wider utilization of renewable
energy in Malaysia (Hitam, 1999).
2.3.2 Electricity Growth Forecast
Electricity supply show an increasing share of the world’s total energy demand
in the IEO2011 Reference case while electricity usage increases more rapidly when
compared to consumption of liquid fuels, natural gas, or coal in all end-use sectors
except transportation. From 1990 to 2008, growth in net electricity generation surpassed
the growth in delivered energy consumption which is 3.0% per year and 1.8% per year,
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respectively. On the contrary, from 2008 to 2035, it is projected that world demand for
electricity to be increased by 2.3% per year. It is also expected to surpass growth in total
energy use throughout the forecasting period (Figure 2.7) (Energy Outlook, 2011).
Figure 2.7 : Growth in world electricity generation and total delivered energy
consumption, 1990-2035 (index, 1990=1)
In Malaysia, from year 1991 to 2003, electricity consumption and GDP are kept
increasing parallel to the increasing of final energy demand and electricity. The
previous analysis also found that, the final energy demand has increased from
609,627 GJ in year 1991 to 1,448,116 GJ in year 2003. Meanwhile, electricity demand
increased from 22,273 GWh in year 1991 to 71,159 GWh in year 2003. As referred to
Figure 2.8, it is also projected that, as a rapid growing country like Malaysia, the
demand for electricity will continue to rise (NEB, 2003; Jafar et al., 2008).
0
1
2
3
4
1990 1999 2008 2017 2026 2035
Projections
Net electricity generation
Total delived energy
2008 History
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year
RM (M
illion
(at 1
987 p
rices
)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
GWh
GDP (RM Million)
Electricity Consumption (GWh)
Figure 2.8 : Trends in GDP and electricity consumption (GWh) in Malaysia from year
1990 – 2003
(Source: Reproduced from PTM (NEB, 2003, p.3.))
According to Keong (2005), the average annual electricity demand is forecasted
to grow by 8.87%. Malaysia is one of the countries among the ASEAN countries that
has recorded significantly high energy per capita and electricity intensity over the years
(NEB, 2004; Shrestha et al., 2009). On the other hand, the finding from Chandran et al.
(2010) has revealed the positive impact of electricity consumption on GDP. The
increase in 1% of electricity consumption would lead to increase between 0.68% and
0.79% in GDP. This finding has also shown that in economic growth, energy is a vital
source (Chandran et al., 2010). Electricity demand projections for the future are
pervaded by uncertainty and a variety of scenarios, making it difficult for decision-
makers to prepare concrete plans. The challenge is to incorporate these complexities
into strategic developments without causing inaction to result. The power sector, as is
widely recognized, forms part of and interacts with a more complex system that
includes economic, demographic, financial and environmental elements. Population
growth, resource endowments, energy prices, terms of trade, etc., are among the
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parameters which affect this system directly or indirectly through other systems (Jacob,
1997).
Table 2.5 Projection of maximum demand (MW) for Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and
Sarawak (Jacob, 1997).
The Granger causality test method was used in the previous study by Lean and
Smyth (2010) in order to analyze the relationship between the electricity consumption,
economic growth and CO2 emission. The results have revealed that the increasing in
electricity consumption will result in higher GDP and will also generate higher rates in
economic growth. The energy production increases linearly with the electricity
consumption. The results conclude that in the long run the environmental degradation
Granger causes economic growth. (Lean and Smyth, 2010).
Annual Demand in MW Scenario 1990 1995 2000 2010 2020 (a) Low growth (business as usual) Peninsular Malaysia 3477 6444 9912 19087 26796 Sabah 199 352 521 1109 2206 Sarawak 194 357 547 1100 2231 (b) Moderate growth (business as usual) Peninsular Malaysia 3447 6444 9930 19388 31511 Sabah 199 352 522 1126 2594 Sarawak 194 357 548 1117 2623 (c) Moderate growth (energy efficient) Peninsular Malaysia 3447 6130 8937 15513 25191 Sabah 199 335 470 901 2073 Sarawak 194 339 494 894 2097 (d) Targeted growth (energy efficient) Peninsular Malaysia 3447 6332 9726 18705 34760 Sabah 199 346 512 1087 2861 Sarawak 194 350 537 1078 2894
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2.4 Overview of Environmental Impact from Energy Supply and Electricity
Generation
Global environment, fluctuation of oil price and also fossil fuel depletion are
some of the issues face by many countries including Malaysia. Recently, in Malaysia,
air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern. The air pollution is due to the
combustion of coal, lignite, petroleum, natural gas, wood, as well as agricultural and
animal wastes. These basic fuels emit by products such as CO2, SO2 and NOx. In the
year 2006, Malaysia has recorded the total of about 118,000 million kg of CO2 emission.
The amount of carbon emission per person was about 7,200 kg. Figure 2.4.1 shows the
emission of CO2 in Malaysia for 26 years starting from the year 1980 until 2006. The
rapid growth of primary energy consumption has largely contributed to the considerable
rise of CO2 emissions in particular from the year 1990 until now. The evidence also
suggests that degradation of the environment precedes economic growth. An energy
inputs have been consumed in the production to promote heavy industry in Malaysia
(Shafie et al., 2011).
-20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year
Thou
sand
kg
CO2 emission
Figure 2.9 : CO2 emission at Malaysia, 1980-2006 (Shafie et al., 2011).
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Under the Activity 13A of the Environmental Quality (Prescribed Activities)
(Environmental Impact Assessment) Order 1987 that was made under Section 34A of
the Environmental Quality Act 1974, it stipulates that an Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) study is mandatory for the construction of steam generated power
stations burning fossil fuels with a capacity of more than 10MW. The EIA report has to
be approved prior to the commencement of construction and physical activities.
Due consideration with regards to the environment for instance in maintaining
ecological balance as well as public acceptance need to be given and addressed
thoroughly during the development of new power plants. For example, to consider the
creation of significant opportunities for marine related aqua-culture farming and eco-
tourism for power stations which are located near the sea.
In operating the power plants, the EIA is used as the environmental control
standard. Particulate matter (PM), CO2, SOx and NOx emissions, noise levels, influence
discharge and smoke density are the factors which are monitored in compliance with the
EIA . The first coal plant in Malaysia which is Kapar Power Station has Electrostatic
Precipitators (ESP) and low NOx burners installed. Particulate matter discharge is
limited to 400mg/m3. Future coal plants will require Flue Gas Desulphurisers (FGD) as
a standard requirement. Retirement of inefficient units, bigger size plants, retrofitting,
repowering and refurbishment of plants are some of the guidelines that need to be
followed in the general principles towards application of new technology (Thaddeus,
2003)
Technologies could become commercially available to capture CO2 emissions
from fossil-fuel fired power plants. Research in CO2 capture technology suggests about
90% of the CO2 emissions from future advanced coal-fired and gas-fired power plants
could be captured. However, this technology is still in the early stage of development
for the power sector. Nonetheless, the proposed technologies for removal of CO2 from
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gas steams are well proven in the chemical and gas processing industries in similar
applications. To reduce cost and advance commercialization of the technology, further
studies of the application of this technology in the power generation sector are needed
(Edwards et al., 2001). Currently, TNB is also actively finding and installing the latest
technology in the operations of its latest power plant in order to reduce the emission
gases like CO2, NOx, CO and SO2 that can cause the environmental impact (TNB,
2009).
2.4.1 Overview of Emission production
Rising of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide
(CO2) and other emissions that have a negative effect on the environment such as
sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been
observed over the past few decades. The emissions of the gases are due to fossil fuels
burning. (Mahlia, 2002).
The air quality trend for the year 1997 to 2005 was computed by averaging
direct measurements from the monitoring sites on a yearly basis and cross-reference
with the Malaysian Ambient Air Quality Guidelines shown in Table 2.6 (Quality Report,
2005).
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Table 2.6 Malaysia Ambient Air Quality Guidelines Pollutant
Malaysia Ambient Air
Quality Guidelines Pollutant
Averaging Time Malaysia Guidelines
ppm
(µg/m3)
Ozone 1 Hour 8 Hour
0.10 0.06
200 120
Carbon Monoxide ** 1 Hour 8 Hour
30.0 9.0
35 10
Nitrogen Dioxide 1 Hour 24 Hour
0.17 0.04
320
Sulphur Dioxide 1 Hour 24 Hour
0.13 0.04
350 105
Particulate Matter (PM10) 24 Hour 12 Month
150 50
Total Suspended Particulate (TSP)
24 Hour 12 Month
260 90
Lead 3 Month 1.5
Note : **(mg/m3)
CO2 is a colourless and odourless gas which is produced when any form of
carbon is burned in an excess of oxygen. CO2 is the largest contributor to the
greenhouse effect. As the concentration of CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere due to
various human activities, the atmosphere is trapping more heat. This ultimately causes
the global warming. Thus, the greenhouse effect is directly link to global warming
(Mahlia, 2002).
SO2 is a colourless gas. It reacts on the surface of a variety of atmospheric solid
particles and can be oxidized within atmosphere water droplets. SO2 emission is mainly
by human and industrial activities such as fossil fuel combustion (Mahlia, 2002). The
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gas is formed during the combustion process of fuel containing sulphur for example oil
and coal. High concentration of SO2 in the atmosphere may increase the risk of adverse
symptoms in asthmatic patients as well as irritate the respiratory system. Other effects
associated with long-term exposure to high concentration of SO2 include respiratory
illness, alterations in lung function and aggravation of existing cardiovascular diseases.
Besides, there are also environmental concerns related with high concentration of SO2.
Sulphur dioxide together with NOx is a major precursor of acidic deposition. This
contributes to the acidification of soils, lakes and streams resulting in adverse impact on
the ecosystem. Sulphur dioxide can also be harmful to plant life and worsen the
corrosion of buildings and monuments (Quality Report, 2005).
Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is highly reactive gas that is formed in the ambient air
through the oxidation of nitrogen monoxide (NO). It is a reddish brown. Nitrogen
oxides (NOx) is the term used to describe the total sum of NO, NO2, and other oxides of
nitrogen. High temperature combustion processes, such as those occurring in
automobiles and power plants are the major sources of man-made NOx emission. 95%
of the NOx from combustion processes are emitted as NO and the rest as NO2. Nitrogen
monoxide (NO) is readily converted to NO2 in the environment. Short term exposure to
NO2 may lead to changes in lung function in individuals with pre-existing respiratory
illnesses. It may also increase respiratory illness in children. On the other hand,
respiratory infection and lung function alteration may increase due to long term
exposure to NO2. Apart from that, Nitrogen oxides also react in the air to form ground-
level ozone and fine particle pollution. Both, ozone and the fine particle would cause
negative health effects (Quality Report, 2005).
Nitrogen oxides cause to a wide range of environmental effects. These include
the acid rain formation and potential changes in the composition and competition of
some species of vegetation in wetland and terrestrial systems, visibility impairment,
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acidification of freshwater bodies, eutrophication of estuarine and coastal waters and
increase in levels of toxins harmful to aquatic life (Quality Report, 2005).
CO is a colourless, odourless and poisonous gas. CO consists of a linked carbon
atom with oxygen. Exposure to CO may reduce the blood’s ability to carry oxygen. CO
is a product of incomplete burning of hydrocarbon-based fuels. Each atom of carbon in
the burning fuel joins with two atoms of oxygen forming a harmless gas during normal
combustion but when there is a lack of oxygen, each atom of carbon will link up with
only one oxygen atom to form carbon monoxide gas (Mahlia, 2002).
CO reduces oxygen delivery to organs and tissues. The health threat from
exposure to CO is most serious to those who suffer from cardiovascular diseases; CO
can be poisonous even to healthy people at high level of exposure. Exposure to
increased CO level may cause visual impairment, reduced work capability and poor
learning ability (Quality Report, 2005).
According to the references from Choi (2009) and Shafie et al. (2011), at the
Copenhagen Climate Change conference, Malaysian Prime Minister, Dato’ Seri Najib
Tun Razak announced that Malaysia was committed to reduce its carbon emissions up
to 40% by 2020 as compared with 2005 levels. Starting from 2011, Malaysia needs to
reduce emissions about 4% every year. However, this keynote address has raised much
controversy especially when it comes to the national energy policy whereby according
to this policy Malaysia should find other alternative energy for electricity generation
and it is expected that coal would be the dominant source in the future in order to
reduce the dependency on oil and gas (Abdul Hamid et al., 2008).
Nonetheless, the forecast results from the previous historical data estimated that
coal would be dominant energy source in the future and contribute to the high CO2
emission production. Therefore, the right technology and the application of clean-coal
technology should be adopted in the Malaysian power plant. This finding support the
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statement made by Dato’ Dr Leo Moggie during his keynote address which mentioned
that coal is projected to play important role in the energy mix despite the facts that
several major challenges need to be faced for example the emissions of the GHG and air
pollutants such as SO2 and NOx. (Leo-Moggie, 2002). Currently, Malaysia has been
aggressively promoting several policies and projects in order to reduce the emission of
GHD (Lau, et al., 2009). Recently, Feed-in Tariff (FiT) was proposed and launched in
Malaysia. FiT has been successfully proven for over 40 countries in the world as the
most effective mechanism and cost-effective way in fostering renewable energy such as
biomass, solar, biogas and mini-hydro rather than other policy mechanism such as
quotas, direct incentives or voluntary goals (RE World, 2011). Apart from that,
Malaysia has prepared strategies to ensure that this project will meet the target. It is
projected that in the year 2020, about 42,000 million kg of CO2 could be curbed from
power generation. In addition, it is also forecasted that about 145,000 million kg of CO2
to further increase in year 2030 (Chua et al., 2011).
2.4.2 Emission production from the energy sector
CO2 emissions from the energy sector are estimated to increase at 4.2% per
annum to reach 414,000 million kg of CO2 in 2030, a three-fold increase over 2002.
The biggest contributor to the increase of CO2 emissions is the electricity sector which
is at 49%, followed by the transportation sector at 28 % and the industry sector at 20%
(APEC, 2006).
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0
60,000
120,000
180,000
240,000
300,000
360,000
420,000
1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030Year
Mill
ion
(kg)
of C
02
Electricity Generation Other TransformationsIndustry TransportResidential Commercial
Figure 2.10 : CO2 Emissions by Sector
(Source: APERC Analysis (2006))
2.4.3 Power plants emission
Thermal power plants that were operated by using fossil fuels have produced
huge amount of air pollutants. The effectiveness of these power plants is recorded at
only about 35-40% with the remaining chemical energy converted into heat
(Sherkarchian et al., 2011 and Shafie et al., 2011). According to the previous study, coal
has found to be the highest contributor in producing the emission per kWh of CO2, SO2,
and NOx than other energy sources. Hydro and mini-hydro technologies for example
have zero CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions, but their contribution to the total electricity
generation is still small (Jafar et al., 2008). In this study, the major pollutants which are
being focussed include carbon monoxide (CO), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide
(CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Besides, the projection of total emission due to
electricity generation in Malaysia, the amount and also type of fuel used in all power
plants will be identified and discussed in the next chapter.
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CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction.
Several sources of data are needed in carrying out this study. It started with the
appointment with the management staffs of Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB), Malaysian
Green Technology Corporation (GreenTech Malaysia) and Energy Information Unit
Energy Management and Industry Development Department Energy Commission of
Malaysia for setting the time and date to meet them and obtain some relevant
information about the energy. The meeting was then followed with discussion and data
collection activity with three technical people from Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB),
one technical person from the Malaysian Green Technology Corporation (GreenTech
Malaysia) and one technical person from Energy Information Unit Energy Management
and Industry Development Department Energy Commission of Malaysia. Among the
items that was discussed including briefing on the objectives and the benefits of this
study as well as the permission to enter the library of GreenTech Malaysia. The data
related to energy supply, energy demand and electricity demand were collected from the
National Energy Balance 2008 Malaysia, Malaysian Green Technology Corporation
(GreenTech Malaysia), Energy Information Unit Energy Management and Industry
Development Department Energy Commission of Malaysia, 9th Malaysian Plan and
Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB). These data include the key economic and energy data,
electricity consumption and mix energy supply and demand data (crude oil, natural gas,
coal and coke, hydropower, petroleum products and others). All the data are very
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significant to make the comparison and prediction for the future energy, future
electricity generation and total of the emission production from electricity generation in
Malaysia. Finally, all the data collected were analyzed and evaluated. Figure 3.1 shows
the research methodology flowchart.
NO
YES
Figure 3.1 Research methodology flowcharts
Literature Review
Research Methodology
Assessments of collected data
Statistic and prediction
Impact of the economic and environment
Is the impact satisfactory?
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Generally, in analyzing and evaluating the future energy pattern in Malaysia as
well as the future pattern of electricity generation in Malaysia, methods adopted are
survey data, historical modeling methodologies and data analysis. The details of the
analysis are further described and explained with specific equations in 3.2 for the future
energy pattern in Malaysia and 3.3 for the future pattern of electricity generation in
Malaysia. Similar methods as above were also adopted for the analysis of the
Environmental Impact from electricity generation in Malaysia with scenario approach
being also included. The analysis is illustrated and described in 3.4.
3.2 Method Analysis for the Future Energy Pattern in Malaysia
3.2.1 Survey Data
The data used for this study are the total primary energy supply data, total final
energy demand data, commercial energy supply data, total primary final energy use by
sectors and the final energy consumption and real GDP data. These data are collected
from the Reference (NEB, 2008). All the survey data are tabulated in Tables 3.1, 3.2,
3.3 and 3.4.
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Table 3.1 Total primary energy supply and total final energy demand
Year Total Primary Energy Supply (TJ)
Total Final Energy Demand (TJ)
1990 898,991 553,396 1991 1,102,646 609,627 1992 1,226,414 677,666 1993 1,252,960 731,385 1994 1,325,688 807,547 1995 1,418,514 928,007 1996 1,584,361 1,011,872 1997 1,807,654 1,095,654 1998 1,716,503 1,070,113 1999 1,864,639 1,140,036 2000 2,123,228 1,243,497 2001 2,176,361 1,319,533 2002 2,227,317 1,393,852 2003 2,410,247 1,448,116 2004 2,610,929 1,562,714 2005 2,771,292 1,602,993 2006 2,842,052 1,688,366 2007 3,030,718 1,853,501 2008 3,160,766 1,880,005
Table 3.2 Commercial energy supply
Year Oil (TJ) Natural Gas (TJ) *
Coal & Coke (TJ)
Hydropower (TJ)
1990 520,612 238,240 55,520 38,311 1991 569,767 279,482 65,485 44,089 1992 639,564 357,779 68,667 41,744 1993 667,785 323,613 56,608 52,840 1994 672,055 375,867 65,443 69,169 1995 702,118 463,250 67,494 64,480 1996 810,352 516,634 70,216 52,044 1997 909,333 590,702 67,913 33,077 1998 797,749 609,167 72,477 46,601 1999 814,372 665,440 81,228 69,839 2000 847,533 845,523 104,089 65,317 2001 907,449 838,740 124,354 70,635 2002 926,416 912,850 152,491 55,645 2003 1,002,912 874,162 222,581 44,215 2004 1,059,227 896,395 277,640 55,645 2005 1,015,934 1,037,664 288,442 54,975 2006 981,223 1,118,096 305,609 65,652 2007 1,070,867 1,145,647 370,466 63,224 2008 1,025,564 1,163,986 409,572 82,233
Note (*) : Net natural gas supply after subtracting exports, flared gas and re-injection and LNG production
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Table 3.3 Final energy use by sectors
Note (*) : Estimated data for Residential and Commercial from 1990 until 1996
Table 3.4 Final Energy Consumption and Real GDP
Year Others (Agriculture, Residential and
Commercial*) (TJ)
Non-Energy Use (TJ)
Transport (TJ) Industrial (TJ) Real GDP (RM Million)
1990 68,918 38,018 225,554 220,906 189,059 1991 78,464 44,843 243,097 243,223 205,312 1992 95,547 51,165 260,683 270,271 221,319 1993 89,225 84,870 274,583 293,592 239,792 1994 122,428 76,078 304,060 304,939 261,951 1995 137,459 83,489 327,716 337,472 283,645 1996 168,694 73,021 374,778 394,960 312,017 1997 149,183 96,217 427,116 423,138 335,556 1998 151,611 84,703 410,033 423,766 310,381 1999 157,389 75,324 477,025 430,298 328,194 2000 166,308 94,208 505,413 477,569 356,401 2001 173,593 99,567 550,046 496,243 358,246 2002 187,703 105,136 562,817 538,197 377,559 2003 188,289 98,185 597,527 564,073 399,414 2004 202,693 91,402 644,170 624,449 426,508 2005 219,189 90,984 644,128 648,650 449,250 2006 238,157 117,613 620,723 711,874 475,526 2007 271,192 123,851 658,071 800,387 505,919 2008 271,820 120,418 686,459 801,308 528,311
Note (*) : Estimated data for Residential and Commercial from 1990 until 1996
Source : i) Oil and gas companies, TNB, SESB, SESCo, IPPs, cement, iron and steel manufacturers ii) National Energy Balance 2007, Ministry of Energy, Green Technology and Water
Year Others (Agriculture, Residential &
Commercial*) (TJ)
Non-Energy Use (TJ) Transport (TJ) Industrial (TJ)
1990 68,918 38,018 225,554 220,906 1991 78,464 44,843 243,097 243,223 1992 95,547 51,165 260,683 270,271 1993 89,225 84,870 274,583 293,592 1994 122,428 76,078 304,060 304,939 1995 137,459 83,489 327,716 337,472 1996 168,694 73,021 374,778 394,960 1997 149,183 96,217 427,116 423,138 1998 151,611 84,703 410,033 423,766 1999 157,389 75,324 477,025 430,298 2000 166,308 94,208 505,413 477,569 2001 173,593 99,567 550,046 496,243 2002 187,703 105,136 562,817 538,197 2003 188,289 98,185 597,527 564,073 2004 202,693 91,402 644,170 624,449 2005 219,189 90,984 644,128 648,650 2006 238,157 117,613 620,723 711,874 2007 271,192 123,851 658,071 800,387 2008 271,820 120,418 686,459 801,308
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Table 3.5 GDP growth assumption in Malaysia to 2030
Year GDP (%) 2007 – 2010 0.83 2011 – 2015 4.57 2016 – 2020 4.72 2021 – 2025 4.15 2026 -2030 3.62
Source: Economic Planning Unit, Study to Formulate a New Energy Policy for Malaysia, August 2009
3.2.2 Modeling methodologies
This analysis is to figure out the prediction of future energy pattern in Malaysia.
For this purpose, initially, the data for the pattern of energy supply and demand,
percentage type of fuel used to produce energy and the percentage of energy used by
sectors should be identified. Some of the data are already available but others have to be
calculated with due respect to the energy consumption trend in Malaysia.
The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is polynomial curve
fitting. The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between variable x as the
function of available data and a response y which seeks to find some smooth curve that
best fit the data, but does not necessarily pass through any data points. Mathematically,
a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the following form (Mahlia, 2002) :
y = co + c1x + c2x2 + …. ckxk (3.1)
From the above polynomial equation, the prediction for the future energy pattern
in Malaysia can be obtained and furthermore used in the data analysis.
3.2.3 Data Analysis
Based on the data shown in Table 3.1, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of total
primary energy supply and total final energy demand in Malaysia from year 2012 to
year 2030 can be obtained by the following equation:
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y1 = 1829.7x2 + 85627x + 882249, R2 = 0.9933 (3.2)
y2 = 522.1x2 + 62924x + 493306, R2 = 0.9943 (3.3)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.2, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of
commercial energy supply in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can be obtained.
The future production of oil can be forecasted by the following equation:
y3 = -946.91x2 + 46110x + 529112, R2 = 0.9395 (3.4)
The future production of coal and coke can be forecasted by the following equation:
y4 = = 1821.8x2 - 13935x + 77211, R2 = 0.9807 (3.5)
The future production of hydropower can be forecasted by the following equation:
y5 = = 2.8889x2 + 1143.1x + 44496, R2 = 0.2734 (3.6)
The future production of natural gas can be forecasted by the following equation:
y6 = 129.61x2 + 52114x + 214124, R2 = 0.9813 (3.7)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.3, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of. future
final energy use by sectors in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can be obtained.
The future energy use in others sector (Agriculture, Residential & Commercial sector)
can be forecasted by the following equation:
y7 = -107.1x2 + 8158.4x + 69644, R² = 0.949 (3.8)
The future energy use in non-energy use sector can be forecasted by the following
equation:
y8 = -116.68x2 + 6058.9x + 41373, R² = 0.7992 (3.9)
The future energy use in transport sector can be forecasted by the following equation:
y9 = -312.37x2 + 34126x + 162193, R² = 0.9814 (3.10)
The future energy use in industrial sector can be forecasted by the following equation:
y10 = 892.92x2 + 13784x + 220045, R² = 0.989 (3.11)
The future GDP in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can be forecasted based
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on study carried out by the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) under the Prime Minister’s
Office of Malaysia (IREA) (Kimura, 2011). The assumed GDP growth rates are shown
in Table 3. 5
3.3 Method Analysis for the Future Pattern of Electricity Generation in
Malaysia
3.3.1 Survey Data
The data used for this study are the total electricity demand data, total electricity
generated data, population, total electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants), total electricity generation (GWh)
for various types of power plant, electricity consumption by sectors, trends in GDP,
electricity demand per capita (J/capita) and electricity generated per capita (J/capita)
data, trends in GDP and electricity consumption (GWh) data, and annual growth rates
of GDP, energy demand and electricity demand data. These data were collected from
the Reference (NEB, 2008). All the survey data are tabulated in Tables 3.6, 3.7, 3.9,
3.10 and 3.11
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Table 3.6 Total electricity demand, total electricity generated and population
Year Total Electricity Demand (TJ)
Total Electricity Generated (TJ)
Population
1990 71,807 82,861 18,102,000 1991 80,600 95,589 18,986,000 1992 92,868 105,554 18,985,000 1993 102,582 125,066 19,503,000 1994 122,763 140,767 20,049,000 1995 141,311 163,670 20,624,000 1996 158,143 185,107 21,101,000 1997 183,558 208,387 21,595,000 1998 191,639 209,894 22,107,000 1999 201,604 234,849 22,636,000 2000 220,362 220,362 23,418,000 2001 234,221 255,909 23,935,000 2002 247,954 267,298 24,447,000 2003 264,325 282,497 25,048,000 2004 278,142 296,230 25,580,000 2005 290,745 305,484 26,384,000 2006 304,688 323,404 26,840,000 2007 321,687 351,080 27,452,000 2008 334,374 352,629 27,730,000
Table 3.7 Total electricity generation from various mix energy (Exclude co-generation and private licensed plants)
Year Oil (TJ) Natural Gas (TJ)
Coal (TJ) Hydropower (TJ)
Total Input (TJ)
1990 125,149 56,985 34,040 38,311 254,486 1991 119,371 106,057 40,321 44,089 309,838 1992 105,177 131,639 40,530 41,744 319,091 1993 103,628 183,139 37,013 52,840 376,621 1994 92,365 214,333 38,730 69,169 414,597 1995 97,892 268,554 40,070 64,480 470,996 1996 110,453 313,564 39,777 52,044 515,838 1997 111,667 315,323 36,929 33,077 496,997 1998 100,697 372,057 40,363 46,727 559,844 1999 46,978 425,483 55,771 69,839 598,071 2000 32,784 484,855 62,596 67,494 647,729 2001 42,205 499,174 83,489 70,635 695,503 2002 76,999 520,193 107,020 55,645 759,857 2003 26,336 456,090 171,834 44,215 698,475 2004 22,861 441,519 223,041 55,645 743,067 2005 23,992 513,787 232,002 54,975 824,755 2006 32,994 516,257 249,671 65,652 864,574 2007 21,479 522,370 313,439 63,517 920,805 2008 20,098 571,567 337,849 82,233 1,011,747
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Table 3.8 Fuel types consumption in all types of Malaysian thermal power plants Fuel type Steam turbine Gas turbine Combined
cycle Diesel engine
Coal √ × × × Natural gas √ √ √ × Fuel oil √ × × × Diesel × √ × √ (Sources: Malaysia National Energy Balance (NEB, 2008)) Table 3.9 Total electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant
Year Conventional Thermal
(Coal/oil/gas) (GWh)
Gas Turbine (GWh)
Combined Cycle
(GWh)
Diesel Engine (GWh)
Hydro-power (GWh)
Mini Hydro (GWh)
Biomass (GWh)
1990 10,850.0 51.3 4,321.0 102.6 5,982.9 20.3.0 0.0 1991 13,000.0 789.0 5,432.0 151.6 6,321.9 29.9.0 0.0 1992 15,000.0 1,043.0 6,178.0 242.7 6,951.9 38.9.0 0.0 1993 16,982.0 1,972.0 6,689.0 438.9 7,332.9 54.2.0 0.0 1994 19,192.0 3,221.0 6,777.0 671.5 7,539.9 77.9.0 0.0 1995 20,882.0 4,321.0 7,222.0 789.3 8,013.6 89.3.0 0.0 1996 23,023.0 5,198.0 7,730.0 996.9 8,111.4 113.8 0.0 1997 25,282.0 6,322.0 8,612.0 1,276.9 8,213.3 130.3 0.0 1998 27,023.0 8,431.0 9,821.0 1,441.5 8,332.1 138.9 0.0 1999 28,051.0 10,132.0 11,221.0 1,673.9 8,114.1 146.9 0.0 2000 12,210.8 12,956.9 40,540.8 1,665.7 9,755.3 77.0 0.0 2001 19,016.1 14,075.7 40,638.5 1,718.4 9,678.3 85.1 0.0 2002 24,645.3 12,632.6 31,155.4 1,395.0 7,362.6 77.5 0.0 2003 20,848.7 18,953.4 32,138.4 1,895.3 8,487.8 164.8 0.0 2004 58,003.0 6,860.6 12,741.1 2,049.3 9,266.2 89.0 0.0 2005 21,573.8 21,391.8 36,866.7 1,729.5 9,375.9 91.0 0.0 2006 25,821.4 15,194.5 40,736.3 1,771.1 9,601.4 93.0 0.0 2007 32,626.7 16,313.3 40,834.0 1,823.8 9,524.5 101.3 0.0 2008 33,645.3 17,245.9 42,532.8 1,904.4 10,051.3 105.8 105.8
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Table 3.10 Total electricity consumption by sectors.
Year Residential and Commercial (TJ)
Industrial (TJ) Transport (GJ) Agriculture (GJ)
1990 37,055 34,752 - - 1991 41,368 39,232 - - 1992 45,261 47,606 - - 1993 48,025 54,557 - - 1994 57,153 65,610 - - 1995 64,857 76,455 - - 1996 73,147 84,954 - - 1997 82,107 101,409 41,870 - 1998 90,649 100,949 41,870 - 1999 92,951 108,485 167,480 - 2000 102,707 117,445 167,480 - 2001 111,374 122,679 209,350 - 2002 119,706 128,080 167,480 - 2003 128,373 135,743 209,350 - 2004 138,087 139,846 209,350 - 2005 149,350 141,144 209,350 - 2006 158,771 145,498 591,079 204,577 2007 170,202 150,188 640,402 669,543 2008 178,701 154,375 622,272 811,985
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Table 3.11 Trends in GDP and population with electricity demand and generated.
Year Electricity Consumption
(GWh)
Total Electricity
Demand (TJ)
Total Electricity
Generated (TJ)
Population Real GDP (RM Million)
1990 19,932 71,807 82,861 18,102,000 189,059 1991 22,373 80,600 95,589 18,986,000 205,312 1992 25,778 92,868 105,554 18,985,000 221,319 1993 28,474 102,582 125,066 19,503,000 239,792 1994 34,076 122,763 140,767 20,049,000 261,951 1995 39,225 141,311 163,670 20,624,000 283,645 1996 43,897 158,143 185,107 21,101,000 312,017 1997 50,952 183,558 208,387 21,595,000 335,556 1998 53,195 191,639 209,894 22,107,000 310,381 1999 55,961 201,604 234,849 22,636,000 328,194 2000 61,168 220,362 220,362 23,418,000 356,401 2001 65,015 234,221 255,909 23,935,000 358,246 2002 68,827 247,954 267,298 24,447,000 377,559 2003 73,371 264,325 282,497 25,048,000 399,414 2004 77,206 278,142 296,230 25,580,000 426,508 2005 80,705 290,745 305,484 26,384,000 449,250 2006 84,575 304,688 323,404 26,840,000 475,526 2007 89,294 321,687 351,080 27,452,000 505,919 2008 92,815 334,374 352,629 27,730,000 528,311
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Table 3.12 Trends in annual growth GDP (%), annual growth final energy demand (%) and annual growth final electricity demand (%)
Year Annual Growth GDP (%)
Annual Growth Final Energy Demand (%)
Annual Growth Final Electricity Demand (%)
1990 6.8 8.7 9.7 1991 8.6 10.2 12.2 1992 7.8 11.2 15.2 1993 8.3 7.9 10.5 1994 9.2 10.4 19.7 1995 8.3 14.9 15.1 1996 10.0 9.0 11.9 1997 7.5 8.3 16.1 1998 (7.5) (2.3) 4.4 1999 5.7 6.5 5.2 2000 8.6 9.1 9.3 2001 0.5 6.1 6.3 2002 5.4 5.6 5.9 2003 5.8 3.9 6.6 2004 6.8 7.9 5.2 2005 5.3 2.6 4.5 2006 5.8 5.3 4.8 2007 6.4 9.8 5.6 2008 4.4 1.4 3.9
3.3.2 Modeling methodologies
This analysis is to figure out the prediction of future energy electricity generation
in Malaysia. This method was also used previously to figure out the prediction of future
energy pattern in Malaysia. For this purpose, initially, the data for the total electricity
demand, total electricity generated, total electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants), total electricity generation for
various types of power plant, electricity consumption by sectors, trends in GDP,
electricity demand per capita (J/capita) and electricity generated per capita (J/capita),
trends in GDP and electricity consumption (GWh), and annual growth rates of GDP as
well as energy demand and electricity demand data should be identified. Some of the
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data are already available but others have to be calculated with respect to the electricity
consumption trend in Malaysia.
Therefore, the previous polynomial equation (3.1) can be used for the prediction
of the future electricity generation in Malaysia and it can be calculated and furthermore
used in the data analysis.
3.3.3 Data Analysis
Based on the data shown in Table 3.6, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of total
electricity demand and total electricity generated in Malaysia from year 2012 to year
2030 can be calculated by the following equation:
y11 = -56.271x2 + 16051x + 64066, R2 = 0.9977 (3.12)
y12 = -102.92x2 + 17088x + 79037, R2 = 0.9921 (3.13)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.7, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of future
electricity generation from various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private
licensed plants) in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can be calculated. The future
electricity generation using oil (TJ) can be forecasted by the following equation:
y13 = 4.0308x2 - 6480.7x + 126991, R2 = 0.8178 (3.14)
The future electricity generation using natural gas (TJ) can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y14 = -1460.3x2 + 53697x + 42661, R2 = 0.966 (3.15)
The future electricity generation using coal (TJ) can be forecasted by the following
equation:
y15 = 1693.5x2 - 14134x + 54202, R2 = 0.9778 (3.16)
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The future electricity generation using hydropower (TJ) can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y16 = -1.2994x2 + 1232x + 45495, R2 = 0.2728 (3.17)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.9, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of total
electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant in Malaysia from year
2012 to year 2030 can be calculated. Therefore the future total electricity generation
from all types of power plant can be forecasted by the following equation:
y17 = -39.126x2 + 5561.1x + 12457, R2 = 0.9829 (3.18)
The future electricity generation from conventional thermal (coal/oil/gas) power plant
can be forecasted by the following equation:
y18 = -20.256x2 + 1522.5x + 10970, R2 = 0.3607 (3.19)
The future electricity generation from gas turbine power plant can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y19 = -21.592x2 + 1508.3x - 2954.8, R² = 0.8248 (3.20)
The future electricity generation from combined cycle power plant can be forecasted by
the following equation:
y20 = = 42.196x2 + 1515.1x + 5.103, R² = 0.7189 (3.21)
The future electricity generation from diesel engine power plant can be forecasted by
the following equation:
y21 = = -7.285x2 + 253.86x - 342.16, R2 = 0.9532 (3.22)
The future electricity generation from hydro-power plant can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y22 = -7.5082x2 + 335.56x + 5937.2, R² = 0.7814 (3.23)
The future electricity generation from mini hydro power plant can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y23 = -0.7672x2 + 18.918x + 1.3487, R2 = 0.5727 (3.24)
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The future electricity generation from biomass power plant can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y24 = 0.3977x2 – 6.2844x + 16.705, R2 = 0.3524 (3.25)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.10, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of
electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can be
calculated. The future electricity consumption by residential and commercial sectors
can be forecasted by the following equation:
y25 = 154.8x2 + 5243.4x + 35092, R2 = 0.9985 (3.26)
The future electricity consumption by industrial sector can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y26 = -217.98x2 + 10881x + 28845, R2 = 0.9984 (3.27)
The future electricity consumption by transport sector can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y27 = 3013x2 - 20963x + 26714, R2 = 0.8931 (3.28)
The future electricity consumption by agriculture sector can be forecasted by the
following equation:
y28 = 5017.2x2 - 65578x + 122045, R2 = 0.6902 (3.29)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.11, using Eq. (3.1), the prediction of future
trends in GDP, future total electricity demand per capita (J/capita) and future total
electricity generated per capita (J/capita) in Malaysia from year 2012 to year 2030 can
be obtained. The future electricity trends in GDP can be forecasted by the following
equation:
y29 = 253.17x2 + 13107x + 199432, R2 = 0.9825 (3.30)
Based on the data shown in Table 3.6, the total electricity demand per capita
(J/capita) and total electricity generated per capita (J/capita) can be calculated using the
following equation:
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PDi. = EDi
Pi (3.31)
Future total electricity demand per capita (J/capita) and future total electricity
generated per capita (J/capita) can be calculated using Equation (3.31) since the
calculation for the prediction of the future electricity demand and electricity generated
in Malaysia is available.
Based on the data shown in Table 3.12, the future annual growth rates of GDP,
final energy demand can be calculated using the equations as per below:
% GDPi = (Σ GDPi - Σ GDPpi) / Σ GDPpi × 100 (3.32)
% EDi = (Σ EDi - Σ GDPpi) / Σ EDpi × 100 (3.33)
% ECDi = (Σ ECDi - Σ ECDpi) / Σ ECDpi × 100 (3.34)
Where;
PD = Total Electricity Demand per Capita
ED = Electricity Demand
P = Population
% GDP = Annual Growth Gross Domestic Product
% ED = Annual Growth Energy Demand
% ECD = Annual Growth Electricity Demand
i = year
pi = previous year (a year before)
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3.4 Method Analysis for the Environmental Impact from electricity generation
in Malaysia
3.4.1 Survey Data
The data used for this study are the total electricity generation data (Refer Table
3.7), percentage of various types of fuel used for electricity generation data including
CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit of electricity generation
data. In addition, data on nominal capacity (MW) for various types of Malaysian power
plant from 2000 to 2008 are determined. These data are collected from the Reference
(NEB, 2000-2008) and (Mahlia, 2002). All the survey data are tabulated in Tables 3.13,
3.14 and 3.15
Table 3.13 Percentage of electricity generation based on fuel types.
Year Oil Natural Gas Coal Hydro
1990 49.18% 22.39% 13.38% 15.05% 1991 38.53% 34.23% 13.01% 14.23% 1992 32.97% 41.25% 12.70% 13.08% 1993 27.52% 48.63% 9.82% 14.03% 1994 22.28% 51.70% 9.34% 16.68% 1995 20.78% 57.02% 8.51% 13.69% 1996 21.41% 60.79% 7.71% 10.09% 1997 22.47% 63.45% 7.43% 6.65% 1998 17.99% 66.46% 7.20% 8.35% 1999 7.85% 71.14% 9.33% 11.68% 2000 5.06% 74.85% 9.66% 10.43% 2001 6.07% 71.77% 12.00% 10.16% 2002 10.13% 68.46% 14.08% 7.33% 2003 3.77% 65.30% 24.60% 6.33% 2004 3.08% 59.42% 30.01% 7.49% 2005 2.91% 62.30% 28.13% 6.66% 2006 3.82% 59.71% 28.88% 7.59% 2007 2.33% 56.73% 34.04% 6.90% 2008 1.99% 56.49% 33.39% 8.13%
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Table 3.14 CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit of electricity generation
Fuel type Emission Factors (kg/kWh)
CO2 NOx SO2 CO
Coal 1.18 0.0052 0.0139 0.0002
Natural gas 0.53 0.0009 0.0005 0.0005 Fuel oil 0.85 0.0025 0.0164 0.0002
Diesel 0.85 0.0025 0.0164 0.0002 Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Table 3.15 Nominal capacity (MW) for various types of Malaysian power plant from 2000-2008.
Year Conventional thermal (Coal) (Oil/gas)
(MW)
Gas turbine (MW)
Combined cycle (MW)
Diesel engine (MW)
Hydro-power (MW)
Mini hydro (MW)
Biomass (MW)
Total (MW)
2000 700.0 1,670.0 3,456.9 5,056.0 295.3 2,059.1 33.3 0.0 13270.6
2001 1,700.0 1,726.0 3,572.9 5,345.0 350.7 2,078.0 40.5 0.0 14813.1
2002 1,700.0 1,560.0 4,521.2 5,355.0 429.0 2,066.1 40.0 0.0 15671.3
2003 3,802.4 1,569.3 4,526.7 7,625.0 503.0 2,072.2 40.2 0.0 20138.8
2004 4,692.3 8,361.9 1,544.0 2,807.4 501.3 2,105.5 20.1 0.0 20032.5
2005 3,884.4 893.0 4,710.4 10,336.0 401.8 2,053.8 22.3 0.0 22301.7
2006 4,570.6 910.1 3,337.0 8,858.1 424.7 2,083.1 20.2 0.0 20203.8
2007 5,977.3 894.4 3,512.2 8,878.7 436.3 2,094.2 21.8 0.0 21814.9
2008 5,980.7 904.0 3,646.0 8,868.0 431.0 2,091.0 29.0 39.0 21988.7
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Table 3.16 Electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant from year 2000-2008
Year Conventional thermal (Coal) (Oil/gas)
(GWh)
Gas turbine (GWh)
Combined cycle (GWh)
Diesel engine (GWh)
Hydro-power (GWh)
Mini hydro (GWh)
Biomass (GWh)
Total (GWh)
2000 7,809.0 4,401.0 12,957.0 40,541.0 1,666.0 9,755.0 77.0 0.0 70,220
2001 14,764.6 4,251.5 14,075.7 40,638.5 1,718.4 9,678.3 85.1 0.0 69,855
2002 21,700.3 2,945.0 12,632.6 31,155.4 1,395.0 7,362.6 77.5 0.0 77,501
2003 15,409.9 5,438.8 18,953.4 32,138.4 1,895.3 8,487.8 164.8 0.0 82,406
2004 20,938.1 37,064.9 6,860.6 12,741.1 2,049.3 9,266.2 89.0 0.0 89,098
2005 17,659.6 3,914.2 21,391.8 36,866.7 1,729.5 9,375.9 91.0 0.0 91,029
2006 21,719.8 4,101.6 15,194.5 40,736.3 1,771.1 9,601.4 93.2 0.0 93,218
2007 28,675.0 3,951.7 16,313.3 40,834.0 1,823.8 9,524.5 101.3 0.0 101,325
2008 29,624.8 4,020.5 17,245.9 42,532.8 1,904.4 10,051. 105.8 105.8 105,803
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Table 3.17 Power plants electricity generation contribution (%) from year 2000 - 2008
Year Conventional thermal (coal)
Conventional thermal (oil/gas)
Gas turbine
Combined cycle
Diesel engine
Total (GWh)
2000 20.70% 22.10% 20.40% 20.80% 2.70% 70,220
2001 21.80% 15.20% 22.40% 25.00% 2.80% 69,855
2002 19.50% 9.50% 22.40% 32.00% 2.60% 77,501
2003 18.70% 6.60% 23.00% 39.00% 2.30% 82,406
2004 14.30% 7.70% 23.50% 41.60% 2.30% 89,098
2005 19.40% 4.30% 23.50% 40.50% 1.90% 91,029
2006 23.30% 4.40% 16.30% 43.70% 1.90% 93,218
2007 28.30% 3.90% 16.10% 40.30% 1.80% 101,325
2008 28.00% 3.80% 16.40% 40.20% 1.80% 105,803
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3.4.2 Scenario approach and modeling methodologies
According to Schwartz, scenarios are tools that focus on perceptions about
alternative future environment. Although the end result might not be an accurate, it can
give a better decision about the future (Schwartz, 1996). Both the analyst and the policy
maker should have a scenario that resembles a given future and that this may assist
them through both the opportunities and the consequences of that future (Mahlia, 2002).
These analyses which are also based on historical modelling methodologies that
have been derived from data analysis (3.3.3) and by using the results obtained from
equations (3.15) to (3.18), to figure out for the future potential emissions of electricity
generation from various resources in Malaysia. For this purpose, initially, the electricity
pattern and percentage type of fuel use for electricity generation should be identified.
The percentage for the future electricity generation from various types of fuel can be
calculated from Table 3.7 and Table 4.6 using Equation (3.15) to (3.18) from data
analysis (3.3.3).
From the above mentioned polynomial equation (3.15) to (3.18), the potential
emission and also prediction for the production of future emission produced from the
electricity generation in Malaysia can be generated and thus used in the data analysis.
3.4.3 Data Analysis
The percentages of the various types of fuel for electricity generation were
calculated based on the data shown in Table 3.7 and Table 4.6. The percentage values
shown in Table 3.13, were calculated using the equation as per below:
% FGi f = (FGi f /ΣFG) x 100 (3.35)
The pattern of emission due to the fuel changes is the potential production of
emissions by electricity generation in Malaysia. The emission factors data shown in
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Table 3.14 is to be multiplied by the percentage of each type of fuel and total electricity
generation in that particular year, equal to the annual emission production. The common
gases include CO2, SO2, NOx and CO. The emission pattern of electricity generation
can be calculated by the following equation:
EMi = EGi (PE1 i EXEm
1 p E + PE2
i EXEm2 p E + PE
3
iEXEm
3 p E + … + PE
n
iEXEm
n p E) (3.36)
The emission per unit electricity generation for each year is a function of annual
emission divided by total electricity generation. This can be calculated by the following
equation:
EP A
p AEi E = (EM p
i / EGi) (3.37)
The emission pattern of various types of power plant can be calculated by using
the following equation:
EMPi = EGip (PPCA
1 AEi Ef XEm A
1 AEp E + PPCA
2 AEi Ef XEm A
2 AEp E + PPCA
3 AE
iEf XEm A
3 AEp E + … + PPC
n
iEf XEm
n p E) (3.38)
Where;
% FGi f = percentages of the various types of fuel for electricity generation; i = year ; f = types of fuel
FGi f = Electricity generation from various types of fuel; i = year; f = types of fuel
ΣFG = Total electricity generation from all types of fuel
EMi = Total emission (kg or ton) ; i = year
EGi = Total electricity generation (GWh) ; i = year
PEA
n AEi = Percentage of electricity generation ; i = year; n = fuel type (%)
Emn p = Fossil fuel emission for a unit of electricity generation (Emission factor);
n = types of fuel (kg); p = types of emission gasses EP
p i = Emission per unit electricity generation;
i = year; p = types of emission gasses
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EM p
I = Annual emission production; i = year; p = types of emission gasses
EMP = emission from power plant
PPC = percentage of power plant contribution, f – depends on types of fuel used
Em = emission factor
EG = electricity generation from various types of power plant
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CHAPTER 4
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
4.1 Introduction
This chapter discusses results from the total primary energy supply data, total
final energy demand data, commercial energy supply data, total primary final energy
use by sectors and the final energy consumption and real GDP data that was tabulated in
the previous chapter. The analysis of the future energy pattern in Malaysia has been
revealed and the results from the analysis will be fully shown in this chapter at sub topic
4.2.
Meanwhile for the sub topic 4.3 discusses analysis results from the total
electricity demand data, total electricity generated data, total electricity generation from
various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plants), total electricity
generation (GWh) for various types of power plant, electricity consumption by sectors,
trends in GDP, electricity demand per capita (J/capita) and electricity generated per
capita (J/capita),trends in GDP and electricity consumption (GWh), and annual growth
rates of GDP, energy demand and electricity demand that were tabulated in the previous
chapter.
Finally sub topic 4.4 discusses analysis results from the total electricity
generation data, percentage of the various types of fuel for electricity generation data,
CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit of electricity generation data,
electricity generation (GWh) for various types of power plant from 2000 – 2008, power
plants electricity generation contribution (%) from year 2000 to 2008 and also nominal
capacity (MW) for various types of Malaysian power plant from year 2000 to 2008 that
were tabulated in the previous chapter. The analysis of the environmental impact due to
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the potential emission produced and prediction for the future emission production from
electricity generation in Malaysia have been generated and the results from the analysis
will be fully shown in this chapter.
4.2 Results and Discussion for the Prediction of Future Energy Pattern in
Malaysia
4.2.1 Prediction for the future total primary energy supply and total final energy
demand in Malaysia
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.2) and (3.3) from the year
of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.1 and illustrated in Figure 4.2.
Table 4.1 Forecasted for the future total primary energy supply and total final energy demand in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
The comparison between the before prediction which is for the previous year and
the prediction for the future energy supply and demand are separated by the dotted line
and as shown in Figure 4.1.
Year Total Primary Energy Supply (TJ)
Total Final Energy Demand (TJ)
2012 3,651,618 2,130,330 2013 3,819,581 2,216,749 2014 3,991,204 2,304,212 2015 4,166,487 2,392,719 2016 4,345,428 2,482,270 2017 4,528,029 2,572,865 2018 4,714,290 2,664,504 2019 4,904,210 2,757,188 2020 5,097,789 2,850,916 2022 5,295,028 2,945,688 2023 5,495,926 3,041,504 2024 5,700,483 3,138,365 2025 5,908,700 3,236,270 2026 6,120,577 3,335,219 2027 6,336,112 3,435,212 2028 6,555,307 3,536,249 2029 6,778,162 3,638,330 2030 7,004,676 3,741,456
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Figure 4.1 : Prediction trend of total primary energy supply and total final energy
demand from year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.1 shows that pattern of the total energy supply and energy demand in
Malaysia increasing rapidly from year to year. The total primary energy supply for the
19 years which is starting from year 1990-2008 is 40,721,003 TJ while the total final
energy demand from 1990-2008 is 24,495,206 TJ. These results can be obtained from
Table 3.1. This is shows that total primary energy supply in Malaysia is 39.8% more
than total final energy demand in Malaysia. Even though the collected data is only from
year 1990 to the year of 2008, but the assumption for the total energy supply and
demand for the year 2009 and 2010 can be predicted too using the Equation (3.2) and
(3.3). Therefore the assumption of total primary energy supply and final energy demand
for past 19 years, which is from year 1992 to 2010, is 42,046,063 TJ and 25,292,746 TJ.
The prediction of total primary energy supply and total final demand in
Malaysia starting from the year of 2012 to 2030 can be also shown in Figure 4.1. This
graph also shows that the total of future primary energy supply and total future final
energy demand is increasing significantly from year to year. The results from Table 4.1
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shows that the total for future primary energy supply for the next 19 years which is
starting from year 2012-2030 is 101,649,474 TJ while the total for future final energy
demand from year 2012 to 2030 is 56,264,320 TJ. This is shows that total for future
energy supply in Malaysia is predicted to be 44.6% more than total future energy
demand in Malaysia which much more than for the past 19 year.
4.2.2 Prediction for the commercial energy supply from year 2012 to 2030
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.4), (3.5), (3.6) and (3.7)
from the year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.2 and illustrated in Figure 4.4.
Table 4.2 Forecasted for the commercial energy supply in Malaysia from year
2012-2030
Year Oil (TJ) Natural Gas (TJ)
Coal & Coke (TJ)
Hydropower (TJ)
Total (TJ)
2012 1,085,228 1,423,363 652,392 71,042 3,232,025 2013 1,088,727 1,481,310 720,438 72,316 3,362,790 2014 1,090,332 1,539,515 792,128 73,594 3,495,569 2015 1,090,043 1,597,980 867,461 74,879 3,630,364 2016 1,087,861 1,656,704 946,438 76,169 3,767,172 2017 1,083,785 1,715,688 1,029,058 77,466 3,905,996 2018 1,077,815 1,774,930 1,115,322 78,768 4,046,835 2019 1,069,951 1,834,432 1,205,230 80,075 4,189,688 2020 1,060,193 1,894,193 1,298,781 81,389 4,334,556 2021 1,048,541 1,954,213 1,395,976 82,708 4,481,439 2022 1,034,996 2,014,493 1,496,814 84,033 4,630,336 2023 1,019,557 2,075,031 1,601,296 85,364 4,781,249 2024 1,002,224 2,135,829 1,709,422 86,701 4,934,176 2025 982,997 2,196,886 1,821,191 88,043 5,089,118 2026 961,877 2,258,203 1,936,604 89,392 5,246,075 2027 938,862 2,319,778 2,055,660 90,746 5,405,046 2028 913,954 2,381,613 2,178,360 92,105 5,566,032 2029 887,152 2,443,707 2,304,704 93,471 5,729,033 2030 858,456 2,506,060 2,434,691 94,842 5,894,049
The comparison between the final commercial energy supply from and the year
1990 to 2008 and the prediction for the future final commercial energy supply from year
2012 to 2030 in Malaysia are separated with the dotted line and as shown in Figure 4.2.
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Figure 4.2: Prediction pattern for commercial energy supply from year 1990 – 2030
Figure 4.2 shows that pattern of the final commercial energy mix supply in
Malaysia from year 1990 to 2008. The pattern shows the usage of oil and natural gas are
increasing rapidly. The usage of coal and coke are also increasing but slowly from year
to year. While the usage of petroleum products and others are decreasing from year to
year. The usage of hydropower is almost in steady state and not much different from
year to year.
Figure 4.2 also shows that the prediction patterns of the final commercial energy
mix supply in Malaysia from year 2012 to 2030. The prediction of usage natural gas,
coal and coke are increasing from year to year. The prediction of the usage of
hydropower is remaining almost in steady state from year to year. The usage of oil is
depleting from year to year. This shows that the production of oil products in Malaysia
is declining. The data and the graph also shows that, since year 1990 until 2008, the
demand of the energy usage is increasing tremendously and also causing the reduction
of the production of the oil products in Malaysia due to move away from huge
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dependency on oil and diversified the energy resources. Therefore, Malaysia has to start
searching for the new potential area of oil exploration to accommodate future energy
demand. Besides that Malaysia also has start to increase the usage of the hydropower
and also start to use the renewable energy such as biomass proactively instead of the
crude oil.
4.2.3 Prediction for the future final energy use by sectors from year 2012 to 2030
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.8), (3.9), (3.10) and (3.11)
from the year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.3 and illustrated in Figure 4.3.
Table 4.3 Forecasted for the future final energy use by sectors in Malaysia from year
2012 - 2030
Year % Non-Energy Use
% Others (Agriculture, Residential and Commercial)
% Transport % Industrial
2012 5.5 14.1 35.7 44.7 2013 5.4 14.1 35.2 45.4 2014 5.2 14.1 34.6 46.0 2015 5.0 14.2 34.1 46.7 2016 4.8 14.2 33.6 47.4 2017 4.6 14.2 33.1 48.1 2018 4.5 14.3 32.6 48.7 2019 4.3 14.3 32.0 49.4 2020 4.1 14.3 31.5 50.1 2021 3.9 14.3 31.0 50.7 2022 3.8 14.4 30.5 51.4 2023 3.6 14.4 30.0 52.0 2024 3.4 14.4 29.4 52.7 2025 3.3 14.4 28.9 53.3 2026 3.1 14.5 28.4 54.0 2027 3.0 14.5 27.9 54.6 2028 2.8 14.5 27.4 55.3 2029 2.6 14.6 26.9 55.9 2030 2.5 14.6 26.4 56.5
The comparison between the final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for the year
of 2008 and the prediction year of 2030 are shown in Figure 4.3 and Figure 4.4.
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Figure 4.3: Final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for year 2008
Figure 4.4 : Prediction of future final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for year 2030
Figure 4.3 shows the percentage of the final energy use by sectors in Malaysia
for year 2008. The figure shows that energy in Malaysia is consumed mainly in the
industrial and transportation sectors, 42.6% and 36.5% respectively, followed by
commercial and residential sectors combined at 13.8 %, non-energy use and agricultural
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sector, which consumes 6.4% and 0.6% of the energy. While Figure 4.6 shows the
percentage of the prediction future final energy use by sectors in Malaysia for the 2030.
The figure shows that the future prediction energy in Malaysia is still consumed mainly
in the industrial and transportation sectors, 56.5% and 26.4% respectively, followed by
others at 15.2%, and non-energy use sector, which consumes 2.5% of the energy. The
prediction shows that in 22 years time, the energy consumed in industrial sector will be
increasing up to 13.9% and 1.4% for others which are include with agriculture and
commercial and residential sectors. While the transportation sectors will be decreasing
up to 10.1% and 3.9% for non-energy use sector in 2030. Meanwhile, from the
predicted calculation for agricultural sector also revealed that the sector will be
declining and consuming the lowest energy in 2030. This is due to the high demand of
energy in industrial sector. The prediction also shows that Malaysia should be starting
to increase the production from agricultural sector to avoid the declining from that
sector and to balance up the economic sector.
4.2.4 Prediction for the future final energy consumption and real GDP from year
2012 to 2030
The prediction of future energy consumption and GDP growth are based on
Equations (3.8), (3.9), (3.10), (3.11) and GDP growth assumption in Table 3.5. These
results are tabulated in Table 4.4 and illustrated in Figure 4.5.
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Table 4.4 Forecasted for the future final energy consumption and real GDP in Malaysia
from year 2012 - 2030
Year Non-Energy
Use (TJ) Others
(Agriculture, Residential & Commercial)
(TJ)
Transport (TJ)
Industrial (TJ)
Total (TJ) Real GDP (RM
Million)
2012 118,196 300,965 761,778 955,466 2,136,405 582,497 2013 119,004 313,943 781,847 1,009,432 2,224,226 609,117 2014 119,579 327,135 801,292 1,065,183 2,313,189 636,954 2015 119,921 340,542 820,112 1,122,720 2,403,294 666,062 2016 120,029 354,162 838,307 1,182,043 2,494,541 697,501 2017 119,904 367,997 855,877 1,243,152 2,586,929 730,423 2018 119,545 382,046 872,823 1,306,046 2,680,460 764,899 2019 118,953 396,309 889,144 1,370,727 2,775,132 801,002 2020 118,128 410,786 904,840 1,437,193 2,870,947 838,809 2021 117,069 425,478 919,911 1,505,445 2,967,903 873,620 2022 115,777 440,383 934,358 1,575,483 3,066,002 909,875 2023 114,252 455,503 948,180 1,647,307 3,165,242 947,635 2024 112,494 470,837 961,377 1,720,917 3,265,625 986,962 2025 110,502 486,386 973,950 1,796,312 3,367,149 1,027,920 2026 108,276 502,148 985,897 1,873,493 3,469,815 1,065,131 2027 105,817 518,125 997,220 1,952,460 3,573,623 1,103,689 2028 103,125 534,316 1,007,919 2,033,213 3,678,573 1,143,642 2029 100,200 550,721 1,017,992 2,115,752 3,784,665 1,185,042 2030 97,041 567,340 1,027,441 2,200,077 3,891,899 1,227,941
The comparison between the final energy consumption and real GDP in Malaysia
for the year of 1990 to 2008 and the prediction year of 2012 to 2030 are separated with
the dotted line and shown in Figure 4.5.
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Figure 4.5 : Prediction trend of final energy consumption and real GDP from year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.5 shows the final energy consumption and real Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2030. The GDP growth rapidly from year
to year and it is parallel with the increasing of final energy consumption in Malaysia.
From Table 3.4, the total energy consumption and real GDP growth in Malaysia for the
year 1990 are 553,396 TJ and RM 189,059. While the total energy consumption and
real GDP growth in Malaysia for the year 2008 are 1,880,005 TJ and RM 528,311. This
is shows that since year 1990 to 2008, the total energy consumption and real GDP
growth in Malaysia is increased almost triple for the past in 19 years time which is
increased more than 9% per annum. Figure 4.1, has already shown that the energy
demand and supply from year to year are increasing. These results can be the factor of
the increasing in energy consumption and also real GDP in Malaysia for the past 19
years and also for the future.
Figure 4.5 also shows the prediction of future final energy consumption and real
GDP growth in Malaysia from the year of 2012 to 2030. From Table 4.4 shows that the
total predictions of future energy consumption and real GDP growth in Malaysia for the
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2012 are 2,143,936 TJ and RM 610,320.00 respectively. While the predictions of total
future energy consumption and real GDP growth in Malaysia for the year 2030 are
3,891,704 TJ and RM 1,128,784 respectively. This graph also shows that the
predictions of future final energy consumption and real GDP in Malaysia for next 19
years are also increasing up to 81.5% and 85% respectively which are predicted to be
increased more than 4% per annum due to the high development, high energy demand
and also the increasing in population of Malaysia.
4.3 Results and Discussion for the Prediction of Future Electricity Generation in
Malaysia
4.3.1 Prediction for the future electricity demand and electricity generated in
Malaysia
The results of the forecasted data based on Equations (3.12) and (3.13) from the
year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.5 and illustrated in Figure 4.6.
Table 4.5 Forecasted for the future total electricity demand and electricity generated in
Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Year Total Electricity Demand (TJ) Total Electricity Generated (TJ) 2012 389,953 405,160 2013 403,472 417,616 2014 416,878 429,867 2015 430,172 441,912 2016 443,353 453,751 2017 456,421 465,384 2018 469,378 476,812 2019 482,221 488,033 2020 494,952 499,049 2021 507,571 509,859 2022 520,076 520,463 2023 532,470 530,861 2024 544,751 541,053 2025 556,919 551,040 2026 568,975 560,821 2027 580,918 570,396 2028 592,749 579,765 2029 604,467 588,928 2030 616,072 597,885
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With reference to the previous Table 3.1, in year 1990, total electricity demand is
13% from the total final energy demand in Malaysia. While total electricity generated
in that year is 9.2% from the total primary energy supply in Malaysia. The total
electricity demand from the total final energy demand in Malaysia was increased in year
2008 to 17.8%. While the total electricity generated from total primary energy supply
was also increased to 11.2%.
The comparison between the before prediction which is for the previous year and
the prediction for the future electricity demand and generated are separated with the
dotted line and shown in Figure 4.6.
Figure 4.6 : Prediction trend of future electricity demand and electricity generated
from year 1990 – 2030
Figure 4.6 shows that pattern of the total electricity demand and electricity
generated in Malaysia increasing rapidly from year to year. The total of electricity
demand for the 19 years which is starting from year 1990-2008 is 3,843,373 TJ while
the total electricity generated from 1990-2008 is 4,206,637 TJ. These results can be
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obtained from Table 3.6. This is shows the average of total electricity generated in
Malaysia from year 1990 to 2008 is approximately 8.6% more than total electricity
demand in Malaysia. Even though the collected data is only from year 1990 to the year
of 2008, but the assumption for the total electricity demand and electricity generated for
the year 2009 and 2010 can be predicted too using the Equation (3.12) and (3.13).
Therefore the assumption of total electricity demand and electricity generated for past
19 years, which is from year 1992 to 2010, is 4,402,296 TJ and 4,774,352 TJ.
The prediction of future total electricity demand and electricity generated in
Malaysia starting from the year of 2012 to 2030 can be also shown in Figure 4.6. This
graph also shows that the total of future electricity demand and electricity generated is
increasing significantly from year to year. The results from Table 4.5 shows that the
total of future electricity demand for the next 19 years which is starting from year 2012-
2030 is 9,611,970 TJ while the total for future electricity generated from year 2012 to
2030 is 9,628,425 TJ. This is shows that total for future electricity generated in
Malaysia is forecasted to be approximately 0.2% more than total future electricity
demand in Malaysia.
4.3.2 Prediction for future electricity generation from various mix energy (exclude
co-generation and private licensed plants) from year 2012 to 2030
The results of the forecasted data based on Equations (3.14), (3.15), (3.16) and
(3.17) from the year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.6 and illustrated in Figure
4.7.
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Table 4.6 Forecasted for the future electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants) from year 2012 - 2030
Year Oil (TJ) Natural Gas (TJ)
Coal (TJ) Hydropower (TJ)
Total Input (TJ)
2012 5,313 517,210 562,908 53,007 1,138,442 2013 3,551 505,193 624,982 49,616 1,183,373 2014 3,559 490,256 690,442 44,508 1,228,775 2015 2,470 472,399 759,290 40,488 1,274,648 2016 1,340 451,620 831,524 36,511 1,320,994 2017 0 427,921 907,146 32,742 1,367,812 2018 0 401,302 986,154 27,592 1,415,101 2019 0 371,762 1,068,550 22,526 1,462,862 2020 0 339,301 1,154,332 17,460 1,511,095 2021 0 303,920 1,243,502 12,352 1,559,800 2022 0 255,198 1,336,058 17,711 1,608,976 2024 0 201,730 1,432,002 24,913 1,658,625 2025 0 146,629 1,531,332 30,774 1,708,745 2026 0 140,767 1,634,050 35,213 1,759,337 2027 0 119,497 1,647,459 43,461 1,810,401 2028 0 100,572 1,712,944 48,402 1,861,937 2029 0 66,992 1,789,524 57,446 1,913,944 2030 0 55,059 1,848,435 62,931 1,966,424
The comparison between the electricity generation from various mix energy
(exclude co-generation and private licensed plants) from year 1990 to 2008 and
predicted for the future electricity generation from various mix energy (exclude co-
generation and private licensed plants) from year 2012 to 2030 in Malaysia are
separated with the dotted line and shown in Figure 4.7.
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Figure 4.7 : Prediction pattern of the future electricity generation in Malaysia from
various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plan)
Figure 4.7 shows that pattern of the Electricity Generation in Malaysia from
various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plan) from year 1990 to
2008. In 2008, the total electricity generated in the country was 1,011,747 TJ of which
56% was contributed by natural gas, 33% coal, 8% hydropower and by 2% oil products.
The pattern shows that natural gas is being the major contributor to the electricity
generation in Malaysia. The usage of coal is increasing slowly from year to year due to
reduce the high dependence on natural gas in the generation mix by increasing. As a
result, the share of coal in the total generation mix increased from 9.7% in 2000 to 33%
in 2008 whereas that of natural gas declined from 74.9 % to 56%. While the usage of oil
products are declining from year to year. The usage of hydropower is almost in steady
state and not much different from year to year.
Figure 4.7 also shows the prediction of future electricity generation in Malaysia
from various mix energy (exclude co-generation and private licensed plan in Malaysia)
from year 2012 to 2030. The prediction shows that coal will be the major contributor in
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the electricity generation and increasing tremendously from year to year. The usage of
natural gas is declining tremendously. This is due to the efforts that were undertaken to
reduce the high dependence on natural gas in the generation mix. The prediction of the
usage of hydropower is remaining almost consistent from year to year. While the usage
of crude oil products are declining from year to year due to the declining of the
production of crude oil and petroleum products in Malaysia. This prediction also show
that Malaysia should increase the usage of the renewable energy such as hydro and
biomass in order to reduce the high dependence on coal for the future and balance up
the mix energy generation from focusing in using certain types of energy.
4.3.3 Prediction for the future total electricity generation for various types of
power plant from year 2012 to 2030
The results of the forecasted data based on Equations (3.18), (3.19), (3.20), (3.21),
(3.22), (3.23), (3.24) and (3.25) from the year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.7
and illustrated in Figure 4.6.
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Table 4.7 Forecasted for the future total electricity generation for various types of
power plant from year 2012 - 2030
Year Conventional Thermal
(Coal/oil/gas) (GWh)
Gas Turbine (GWh)
Combined Cycle (GWh)
Diesel Engine (GWh)
Hydro-power (GWh)
Mini Hydro (GWh)
Biomass (GWh)
Total (GWh)
2012 34,661.1 19,777.3 53,760.2 1,716.8 9,685.6 46.2 70.9 119,718.1 2013 35,272.1 20,313.9 57,174.1 1,642.9 9,683.2 30.6 82.5 124,199.4 2014 35,842.5 20,807.4 60,672.4 1,554.3 9,665.9 13.5 95.0 128,651.0 2015 36,372.5 21,257.7 64,255.1 1,451.2 9,633.6 10.0 108.2 133,088.3 2016 36,861.9 21,664.8 67,922.2 1,333.5 9,586.2 14.6 122.2 137,505.5 2017 37,310.9 22,028.7 71,673.7 1,201.3 9,523.8 20.0 136.9 141,895.4 2018 37,719.3 22,349.5 75,509.6 1,054.5 9,446.5 35.0 152.5 146,266.8 2019 38,087.2 22,627.0 79,429.8 893.1 9,354.0 40.0 168.9 150,600.1 2020 38,414.6 22,861.4 83,434.5 - 9,246.6 41.5 186.1 154,184.7 2021 38,701.5 23,052.6 87,523.6 - 9,124.2 16.5 204.1 158,622.4 2022 38,947.9 23,200.6 91,697.0 - 8,986.7 18.9 222.8 163,073.9 2023 39,153.7 23,305.4 95,954.8 - 8,834.3 16.4 242.4 167,507.0 2024 39,319.1 23,367.0 100,297.1 - 8,666.8 40.0 262.8 171,952.7 2025 39,443.9 23,385.5 104,723.7 - 8,484.3 19.8 283.9 176,341.1 2026 39,528.2 23,360.8 109,234.7 - 8,286.7 20.4 305.9 180,736.7 2027 39,572.0 23,292.9 113,830.1 - 8,074.2 21.0 328.6 185,118.8 2028 39,575.3 23,181.8 118,509.9 - 7,846.6 21.8 352.2 189,487.6 2029 39,538.1 23,027.5 123,274.1 - 7,604.1 22.5 376.5 193,842.8 2030 39,460.4 22,830.0 128,122.7 - 7,346.5 23.9 401.6 198,185.1
The comparison between the total electricity generation for various types of
power plant from year 1990 to 2008 and the prediction for the future total electricity
generation for various types of power plant from year 2012 to 2030 in Malaysia are
separated with the dotted line and shown in Figure 4.8. Univers
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Figure 4.8 : Prediction pattern of electricity generation in Malaysia power plants by type
of power plant from year 1990 – 2030
Table 3.9 and Figure 4.8 show that starting from the year 2000, most of the
electricity was generated from combined cycle’s power plant and followed by the
conventional thermal (coal) power plant and the generations from these two types of
power plant are increasing year by year. While the diesel engine power plants are being
slowly phase out. It is also shows that the electricity generation from fossil fuels is
much higher than renewable sources due to meet the high electricity demand. Accept
for the year 2004, the production from combine cycles power plant was dropped to 63%
due to the increasing of 81% of the generation from conventional thermal (oil/gas)
power plant. While starting from year 2005, Malaysia starts to reduce tremendously the
production of electricity generation from conventional thermal (oil/gas) up 89% due to
the declining of the fuel consumption (Table 3.16). Malaysia is starting to generate the
electricity from biomass power plant since 2008 until now. Currently many oil and gas
company started to do the research on this field and started to use biomass power plant
to generate the electricity.
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Table 4.7 and Figure 4.8 are also show the prediction of the future electricity
generation from various types of power plants. This graph shows that the combined
cycle power plant still will be the biggest contributor to the electricity generation in
Malaysia, followed by the conventional thermal (steam turbine), gas turbine and hydro-
power plant. It is noted that the changes in share of the mix energy sources will affect
the contribution percentage of the each type of the power plants that generate electricity
in Malaysia. Therefore, with reference from the literature review in the previous chapter,
the efficiency of the hydro power plant is generally higher and their life span is also
longer compared to the fossil fuel power plants although the initial cost of the power
plant is a bit higher than fossil fuel plant. Thus, Malaysia should increase the electricity
generation from this hydro power plant and other renewable power plants in the future
due to the higher efficiency and long term saving.
Furthermore, this result is a prediction only and the real generation of the future
electricity in Malaysia is subjected to the future efficiency of each type of the power
plant and also the development of Malaysia especially in the research and development
for the next 19 years ahead.
4.3.4 Prediction for the future electricity consumption by sectors from year
2012 to 2030
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.26), (3.27), (3.28) and
(3.29) from the year of 2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.8 and illustrated in Figure
4.9.
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Table 4.8 Forecasted for the future electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia from
year 2012 - 2030
Year Residential and
Commercial (TJ)
Industrial (TJ)
Transport (GJ) Agriculture (GJ)
Total (TJ)
2012 225,370 162,725 1,023,820 1,107,654 390,226 2013 237,579 163,797 1,138,442 1,267,850 403,782 2014 250,098 164,433 1,259,090 1,438,080 417,228 2015 262,927 164,633 1,385,764 1,618,345 430,564 2016 276,065 164,397 1,518,464 1,808,644 443,789 2017 289,513 163,725 1,657,190 2,008,978 456,904 2018 303,270 162,617 1,801,942 2,219,346 469,908 2019 317,337 161,073 1,952,720 2,439,748 482,803 2020 331,714 159,093 2,109,524 2,670,185 495,587 2021 346,400 156,677 2,272,354 2,910,656 508,260 2022 361,396 153,825 2,441,210 3,161,162 520,824 2023 376,701 150,538 2,616,092 3,421,702 533,277 2024 392,316 146,814 2,797,000 3,692,276 545,620 2025 408,241 142,655 2,983,934 3,972,885 557,852 2026 424,475 138,059 3,176,894 4,263,528 569,975 2028 441,019 133,027 3,375,880 4,564,206 581,986 2029 457,872 127,560 3,580,892 4,874,918 593,888 2030 475,035 121,656 3,791,930 5,195,664 605,679
The comparison between the total electricity consumption by sectors from year
1990 to 2008 and the prediction for the future electricity consumption by sectors in
Malaysia from year of 2012 to 2030 are separated with the dotted line and shown in
Figure 4.9.
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Figure 4.9 : Prediction pattern of total electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia from
year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.10 : Total Electricity Consumption by sectors in Malaysia for the year 2008
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Figure 4.11 : Prediction of future electricity consumption by sectors in Malaysia for
the year 2030
Figure 4.9 shows the percentage of the total electricity consumption by sectors
in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2008. The figure shows that total electricity consumption
in each sector are increasing yearly. Accept in year 1998 for the industrial sector, the
electricity consumption by industrial sector is slightly decreased for a year but after year
1999 to 2008, the electricity consumption for this sector is slightly increased from year
to year. Besides, Figure 4.10 shows that the electricity in Malaysia is consumed mainly
in the residential and commercial sectors combined at 53.4% and industrial sectors at
46.1% respectively, followed by the transportation and agricultural sectors which
consumes at 0.2% both. While Figure 4.9 also shows the prediction of future electricity
consumption by sectors in Malaysia from year 2012 to 2030. The figure shows that the
electricity consumption from residential and commercial are increasing tremendously
and this sector will be the major consumer due to the high demand of electricity
generation in Malaysia (see Figure 4.11). While the electricity consumption from
industrial sector will be decreasing due to the application of high efficiency machines
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and equipment used and the implementation of the energy saving concept in most of the
factories. From Figure 4.11 shows that the prediction in 22 years time, the electricity
consumption in residential and commercial sector will be increasing up to 79.8%, 0.9%
for agricultural sector and 0.65% for transportation sector. The electricity consumption
in industrial sector will be decreasing up to 18.7% in 2030. The increasing of the
electricity consumption in residential and commercial sector is due to the increasing of
the population in Malaysia and high demand. The prediction also shows that Malaysia
should be starting to implement the energy saving in building in order to reduce the
electricity consumption on that sector and Malaysia should be started to increase the
production from agricultural sector in order to balance up the economic sector.
4.3.5 Prediction for the future trends in GDP, total electricity demand per capita
(GJ/capita) and total electricity generated per capita (GJ/capita)
The results of the predicted data from the year of 2012 to 2030 are based on
Equations (3.30) and (3.31) are tabulated in Table 4.10 and illustrated in Figure 4.12.
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Table 4.9 Total electricity demand per capita (GJ/capita), total electricity generated per
capita (GJ/capita) and GDP in Malaysia from year 1990 - 2008
Year Total
Electricity Demand (GWh)
Total Electricity Demand per capita
(GJ/capita)
Total Electricity Generated per capita
(GJ/capita)
Real GDP (RM Million)
Population
1990 19,932 3.97 4.58 189,059 18,102,000 1991 22,373 4.25 5.03 205,312 18,986,000 1992 25,778 4.89 5.56 221,319 18,985,000 1993 28,474 5.26 6.41 239,792 19,503,000 1994 34,076 6.12 7.02 261,951 20,049,000 1995 39,225 6.85 7.94 283,645 20,624,000 1996 43,897 7.49 8.77 312,017 21,101,000 1997 50,952 8.50 9.65 335,556 21,595,000 1998 53,195 8.67 9.49 310,381 22,107,000 1999 55,961 8.91 10.38 328,194 22,636,000 2000 61,168 9.41 9.41 356,401 23,418,000 2001 65,015 9.79 10.69 358,246 23,935,000 2002 68,827 10.14 10.93 377,559 24,447,000 2003 73,371 10.55 11.28 399,414 25,048,000 2004 77,206 10.87 11.58 426,508 25,580,000 2005 80,705 11.02 11.58 449,250 26,384,000 2006 84,575 11.35 12.05 475,526 26,840,000 2007 89,294 11.72 12.79 505,919 27,452,000 2008 92,815 12.06 12.72 528,311 27,730,000
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Table 4.10 Forecasted for the future total electricity demand per capita (GJ/capita), total
electricity generated per capita (GJ/capita) and GDP in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Year Total Electricity
Demand (GWh) Total Electricity
Demand per capita (GJ/capita)
Total Electricity Generated per
capita (GJ/capita)
Real GDP (RM Million)
Population
2012 108,246 12.11 12.58 566,325 32,212,662 2013 111,999 12.29 12.72 592,207 32,837,289 2014 115,720 12.46 12.84 619,270 33,467,960 2015 119,411 12.61 12.96 647,571 34,104,675 2016 123,069 12.76 13.06 678,136 34,747,434 2017 126,697 12.89 13.15 710,144 35,396,237 2018 130,294 13.02 13.23 743,663 36,051,084 2019 133,859 13.14 13.29 778,764 36,711,975 2020 137,393 13.24 13.35 815,522 37,378,910 2021 140,896 13.34 13.40 849,366 38,051,889 2022 144,367 13.43 13.44 884,615 38,730,912 2023 147,808 13.51 13.47 921,326 39,415,979 2024 151,217 13.58 13.49 959,561 40,107,090 2025 154,595 13.65 13.50 999,383 40,804,245 2026 157,941 13.71 13.51 1,035,561 41,507,444 2027 161,256 13.76 13.51 1,073,048 42,216,687 2028 164,541 13.81 13.50 1,111,892 42,931,974 2029 167,793 13.85 13.49 1,152,143 43,653,305 2030 171,015 13.88 13.47 1,193,850 44,380,680
The relationship between the current and prediction of the future real GDP
growth, total electricity demand per capita (GJ/capita) and total electricity generated per
capita (GJ/capita) in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2030 are reviewed in Figure 4.12.
Meanwhile Figure 4.13 shows the relationship between future trends of GDP growth
and electricity demand in Malaysia. Univers
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Figure 4.12 : Electricity Demand per Capita, Total Electricity Generated and
Real GDP from Year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.13 : Prediction of Future Trends in GDP and Electricity Demand from
Year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.12 shows the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing rapidly from year
to year until 2008 and it is parallel with the increasing of total electricity demand and
generated per capita in Malaysia due to the increasing of the population in Malaysia
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(Table 4.9 and 4.11). Between 1990 and 2008, gross domestic production (GDP) growth
averaged above 9% per annum. The GDP was dropped to 7% in year 1998 due to the
effected of Asian Financial Crisis in 1997.
Figure 4.12 also shows that the prediction of future trends GDP in Malaysia is
growing year by year. While the electricity demand and generated per capita from the
year of 2012 to 2030 are within the same range of average from year to year. The results
from Figure 4.13 can be predicted that Malaysia’s GDP will be growing by 4.7% on
average from 2012 to 2030. Within the same period, total electricity demand is
predicted to increase from 108,246 GWh in 2012 to 171,015 GWh in 2030. This is also
shows that the future electricity demand and trends GDP growth in Malaysia for next 19
years are increasing and keep growing due to the increasing of the population and high
development in Malaysia
Table 4.11 Forecasted for the future annual growth rates of GDP, final energy demand
and electricity demand in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Year Annual Growth (%) Annual Growth Final
Energy Demand (%) Annual Growth Final
Electricity Demand (%) 2012 4.57 4.2 3.6 2013 4.57 4.1 3.5 2014 4.57 3.9 3.3 2015 4.57 3.8 3.2 2016 4.72 3.7 3.1 2017 4.72 3.6 2.9 2018 4.72 3.6 2.8 2019 4.72 3.5 2.7 2020 4.72 3.4 2.6 2021 4.15 3.3 2.5 2022 4.15 3.3 2.5 2023 4.15 3.2 2.4 2024 4.15 3.1 2.3 2025 4.15 3.1 2.2 2026 3.62 3.0 2.2 2027 3.62 2.9 2.1 2028 3.62 2.9 2.0 2029 3.62 2.8 2.0 2030 3.62 2.8 1.9
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Figure 4.14 : Trends in Annual Growth Rates of GDP, Energy Demand and Electricity
Demand in Malaysia from 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.14 reviewed the current and prediction of the future trends in annual
growth rates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), final energy demand and final
electricity demand in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2030. The patterns show that the
annual growth rates of GDP, energy demand and electricity demand are fluctuate and
instable from year to year due to the development progress in Malaysia. The annual
growth rates of GDP and energy demand were dropped drastically to -7.5% from 7.5%
and -2.3% from 8.3% respectively in year 1998 due to the effected of Asian Financial
Crisis in 1997. Meanwhile the annual growth rate of electricity demand was also
dropped to 4.4% from 16.1% in year 1998.
The results were also predicted that the annual growth rates of GDP, energy
demand and electricity demand will become stable starting from year 2016 and slowly
depleting until year 2030. It is expected that Malaysia will be fully developed and the
economic is expected to be fully matured in year 2021.
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4.4 Results and Discussion for the Environmental Impact due to the Emission
Production from the Electricity Generation in Malaysia
4.4.1 Prediction of the future potential emission production from the electricity
generation in Malaysia
The results of the predicted data based on Equations (3.35) and (3.36) from year
2012 to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.14 and illustrated in Figure 4.15.
Table 4.12 Predicted electricity generation and percentage mix of electricity generation
in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Year Oil Natural Gas Coal Hydro Total (GWh)
2012 0.15% 45.43% 43.54% 10.88% 316,185 2013 0.10% 42.69% 45.90% 11.31% 328,664 2014 0.08% 39.90% 48.08% 11.94% 341,271 2015 0.05% 37.06% 50.35% 12.54% 354,006 2016 0.00% 34.19% 52.83% 12.98% 366,880 2017 0.00% 31.29% 54.96% 13.75% 379,882 2018 0.00% 28.36% 56.78% 14.86% 393,013 2019 0.00% 25.41% 58.62% 15.97% 406,282 2020 0.00% 22.45% 61.20% 16.35% 454,570 2021 0.00% 19.48% 63.54% 16.98% 433,206 2022 0.00% 15.90% 67.04% 17.06% 446,859 2023 0.00% 12.20% 70.32% 17.48% 460,653 2024 0.00% 8.60% 73.64% 17.76% 474,574 2025 0.00% 8.00% 74.02% 17.98% 488,623 2026 0.00% 6.60% 75.38% 18.02% 502,800 2027 0.00% 5.40% 76.03% 18.57% 517,116 2028 0.00% 3.50% 77.54% 18.96% 531,561 2029 0.00% 2.80% 78.02% 19.18% 546,133 2030 0.00% 2.10% 78.56% 19.34% 560,845
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Table 4.13 Potential emissions production by electricity generation in Malaysia from
year 1990 - 2008
Emissions production
Year CO2 (Mkg) SO2 (Mkg) NOx (Mkg) CO (Mkg)
1990 49,097.94 709.51 150.34 16.76 1991 57,011.08 714.18 167.64 23.60 1992 57,500.48 654.01 164.50 26.38 1993 63,555.36 640.37 171.18 33.25 1994 66,056.16 600.06 173.66 37.05 1995 75,781.41 637.90 192.99 44.96 1996 85,274.04 700.20 212.53 51.90 1997 84,893.23 695.09 209.72 52.05 1998 91,765.36 666.10 221.17 59.51 1999 92,009.01 488.40 219.56 64.80 2000 99,620.08 458.22 234.34 72.63 2001 110,806.81 583.87 274.65 76.31 2002 129,821.02 835.96 338.03 82.47 2003 129,680.30 846.70 380.49 74.35 2004 143,492.57 1,026.54 448.36 74.98 2005 157,350.98 1,076.44 480.22 85.58 2006 165,634.07 1,186.17 512.63 87.40 2007 184,701.09 1,380.46 598.21 91.15 2008 199,617.64 1,475.40 644.80 99.26
Table 4.14 Prediction of future potential emissions production by electricity generation
in Malaysia from year 2012 - 2030
Emissions production
Year CO2 (Mkg) SO2 (Mkg) NOx (M kg) CO (Mkg)
2012 238,980.70 1,993.17 846.33 99.45 2013 252,652.74 2,172.45 911.55 100.39 2014 266,018.48 2,353.31 976.46 100.95 2015 280,008.85 2,546.06 1,045.37 101.28 2016 295,192.00 2,756.85 1,120.77 101.48 2017 309,362.87 2,961.52 1,192.65 101.19 2018 322,392.94 3,157.55 1,260.71 100.36 2019 335,747.32 3,362.08 1,331.36 99.25 2020 382,359.43 3,917.96 1,538.47 106.66 2021 369,531.54 3,868.29 1,507.30 97.25 2022 391,154.88 4,199.61 1,621.73 95.44 2023 412,024.33 4,530.74 1,735.02 92.89 2024 434,012.91 4,878.12 1,854.01 90.30
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Emissions production
Year CO2 (Mkg) SO2 (Mkg) NOx (M kg) CO (Mkg)
2025 447,498.37 5,046.88 1,915.91 91.88 2026 464,820.31 5,284.84 2,000.72 92.39 2027 478,732.84 5,478.94 2,069.58 92.59 2028 496,223.68 5,738.50 2,160.04 91.74 2029 510,894.47 5,930.34 2,229.45 92.86 2030 526,150.12 6,130.23 2,301.72 94.01
Table 4.12 shows the forecasted percentage for various types of fuel used for
electricity generation in Malaysia from year 2012 to 2030. The potential emission
production and also the comparison between the production of emission for previous
year and the prediction of future potential emission production from electricity
generation are shown in Figure 4.20 and Figure 4.21.
-500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,500
19901994
19982002
20062010
20142018
20222026
2030
-50,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000550,000600,000
SO2 (M kg) NOx (M kg) CO (M kg) CO2 (M kg)
SO2,
NOX
& C
O (M
kg)
CO2
(M kg
)
Year
Potential Trend of Emission Production From Electricity Generation From Year 1990 - 2030
Figure 4.15 : Potential trend of emission production from electricity generation
from year 1990- 2030
Figure 4.15 shows the pattern of emission production from electricity generation
in Malaysia. The pattern shows that the emission production for each type of emission
gasses is increasing from year 1990 to 2008 due to the increasing of electricity demand
and total energy input to generate electricity in Malaysia. The changes in energy sources
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for electricity generation also have contributed to the emission pattern in Malaysia
(Refer Table 4.12) in which energy source from coal is the major contributor in
producing more emission from CO2, followed by the SO2, NOx and CO. Table 4.13 and
Figure 4.15 show that the huge emission is produced from CO2 and was projected to
increase from 49,100 Million kg in year 1990 to 196,600 Million kg in year 2008. The
productions for the second emission contributor, SO2 and third contributor, NOx, were
projected to increase from 709,000 thousand kg and 150,000 thousand kg in year 1990
to 1,470 Million kg and 644,000 thousand kg in year 2008 respectively. On the contrary,
the emission produced from CO is minor compared to the others. Nonetheless, the
statistic from year 1990 to 2008 shows that the emission produced from this CO gas
was also increased from 16,000 thousand kg to 99,000 thousand kg in a year. This is
shows the average of total emission production in Malaysia from year 1990 to 2008 for
the all four types of gas is increasing approximately 16% per annum.
The prediction of future potential emission production from electricity
generation for the next 19 years which starts from year 2012 to 2030 is shown in
Figure 4.16. The results show that the predicted total for future potential emission
production for 19 years are about 7,213,758.78 Mkg of CO2, 76,307.45 Mkg of SO2,
29,619.16 Mkg of NOx and 1,842.38 Mkg of CO. Future potential emission is expected
to increase due to several factors. Some of the factors are high energy consumption,
increasing in the population size and rapid development in Malaysia. The total amounts
of emission are considered very huge for a small developing country like Malaysia. The
graph from Figure 4.16 also shows that the future potential emission production from
total electricity generation is increasing tremendously from year to year due to
increasing of future electricity demand and also monopoly of the coal usage. The results
project that the future potential CO2 emission production due to electricity generation is
increasing approximately 526,000 Million kg which is more than double in year 2030.
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The future emission production from SO2 and NOx are also projected to increase up to
6,100 Million kg and 2,300 Million kg respectively. The increase is more than triple.
However the prediction of emission production from CO is almost maintain every year
and does not show much different. To sum up, the average of total prediction for all
potential emission production in Malaysia that came from the future electricity
generation for next 19 years which starts from year 2012 will be increasing
approximately 0.3% per annum.
4.4.2 Prediction of the future potential emission per unit of electricity generation in
Malaysia
The results of the forecasted data based on Equation (3.37) from the year of 2012
to 2030 are tabulated in Table 4.16 and illustrated in Figure 4.16
Table 4.15 Emission per unit of electricity generation (kg/GWh) from Year
1990 - 2008
Year CO2 (kg/GWh)
SO2 (kg/GWh)
NOX
(kg/GWh) CO
(kg/GWh) 1990 695,040.00 10,043.40 2,128.40 237.20 1991 661,910.00 8,292.00 1,946.30 274.00 1992 649,250.00 7,383.80 1,857.10 297.90 1993 606,970.00 6,115.20 1,634.50 317.60 1994 573,300.00 5,208.40 1,506.40 321.70 1995 579,200.00 4,877.70 1,475.00 343.60 1996 595,000.00 4,883.90 1,482.60 362.20 1997 614,590.00 5,035.60 1,517.90 376.80 1998 590,410.00 4,285.30 1,422.90 382.90 1999 553,720.00 2,943.80 1,321.00 389.90 2000 554,780.00 2,559.20 1,306.00 404.10 2001 573,990.00 3,027.40 1,422.70 395.20 2002 615,280.00 3,958.80 1,602.20 390.90 2003 668,670.00 4,369.10 1,961.90 383.30 2004 695,170.00 4,975.40 2,172.10 363.20 2005 686,420.00 4,693.00 2,094.40 373.50 2006 700,350.00 5,063.90 2,181.90 365.70 2007 721,260.00 5,386.70 2,335.80 356.10 2008 703,200.00 5,195.00 2,270.00 350.00
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Table 4.16 Prediction of future potential emission per unit of electricity generation
(kg/GWh) from Year 2012 - 2030
Year CO2 (kg/GWh)
SO2 (kg/GWh)
NOX (kg/GWh)
CO (kg/GWh)
2012 755,826.00 6,303.81 2,676.70 314.53 2013 768,727.00 6,609.95 2,773.51 305.45 2014 779,494.00 6,895.74 2,861.26 295.82 2015 790,973.00 7,192.15 2,952.99 286.10 2016 804,601.00 7,514.32 3,054.87 276.61 2017 814,365.00 7,795.89 3,139.53 266.37 2018 820,312.00 8,034.22 3,207.80 255.36 2019 826,389.00 8,275.23 3,276.93 244.29 2020 841,145.00 8,619.05 3,384.45 234.65 2021 853,016.00 8,929.46 3,479.40 224.48 2022 875,342.00 9,398.06 3,629.18 213.58 2023 894,436.00 9,835.48 3,766.44 201.64 2024 914,532.00 10,278.96 3,906.68 190.28 2025 915,836.00 10,328.78 3,921.04 188.04 2026 924,464.00 10,510.82 3,979.16 183.76 2027 925,774.00 10,595.17 4,002.16 179.06 2028 933,522.00 10,795.56 4,063.58 172.58 2029 935,476.00 10,858.78 4,082.24 170.04 2030 938,138.00 10,930.34 4,104.02 167.62
The comparison between emission per unit of electricity generation (kg/GWh) for
previous year and the prediction of future potential emission per unit of electricity
generation are shown in Figure 4.16.
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Figure 4.16 : Potential trend of emission production per unit electricity generation from
year 1990 – 2008
Figure 4.16 shows the pattern of emission production per unit electricity
generation. The pattern shows that the emission production from electricity generation
depends on the percentage of the share in fuel mix energy used to generate the
electricity. More coal sharing may contribute to the increasing in emission production in
a year. The emission that came from CO2 gas is still the major contributor with the
largest emission produced since CO2 has shown the highest amount in emission factors.
(Refer Table 3.14). The results from Table 4.12, Table 4.15 and also Figure 4.16,
proved that when the percentage of coal is reduced from 7.43% to 7.2% in year 1997,
the emission production per unit electricity also dropped significantly to 10% until the
end of year 2000. But starting from year 2001, the emission production started to
increase back since the percentage of coal usage was also increased and similar trend
was observed until the end of year 2008.
The results from Table 4.16 show that the forecasted potential of future total
emissions production per unit electricity in year 2030 will be increasing tremendously
-1,000.002,000.003,000.004,000.005,000.006,000.007,000.008,000.009,000.00
10,000.0011,000.00
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2022
2026
2030
200,000.00
300,000.00
400,000.00
500,000.00
600,000.00
700,000.00
800,000.00
900,000.00
1,000,000.00
SO2 (kg/GWh) NOX (kg/GWh) CO (kg/GWh) CO2 (kg/GWh)
CO2
(kg/
GW
h)
Year
Potential Trend of Emission Production per Unit Electricity Generation From 1990 - 2030
SO2
, NO
X &
CO
(kg
/KW
h)
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and there will be about 938,138 kg/GWh of CO2, 10,930.34 kg/GWh of SO2, 4,104.02
kg/GWh of NOx and 167.62 kg/GWh of CO. The results also predicted widely usage of
coal in the future. Apart from that, coal is expected to play vital role in electricity
generation since the prediction trend shows the declining in the natural gas usage and
the phasing out of the oil production. The increasing in coal usage also maybe because
the electricity starting from the year 2016 while the share of coal in the future is
predicted to increase tremendously
from 45.43% in the year 2012 to 78.56% in the year 2030. These results also
proved that the increasing in the share of coal in electricity generation causes the
increase in emission production per unit electricity generation since high carbon content
in coal will produce the highest CO2 gas emission during combustion process in the
power plant. Therefore, the government of Malaysia should take immediate measures in
controlling and managing high dependency on coal although the coal prices are low.
Besides, other measure that should be focussed on is on developing the renewable
resources and any others fuel resources with lesser emission production or almost zero
emission factors per unit electricity generation.
4.4.3 Review on the emission effects from various types of power plant in Malaysia
from year 2000 to 2008
The results of the emission effects from various types of power plant in
Malaysia were calculated by using Equation (3.38) in the previous chapter based on the
data that were obtained in Table 3.16 and Table 3.17.
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Table 4.17 Emission production from various types of power plants from year 2000 -
2008
Year Emission (Mkg)
Steam Turbine
Gas Turbine Combined Cycle
Diesel Engine
Total (Mkg)
2000 CO2 38,567.63 7,592.19 7,741.05 1,611.55 55,512.42 SO2 464.31 7.16 7.30 31.09 509.87 NOx 128.35 12.89 13.15 4.74 159.13 CO 13.77 7.16 7.30 0.38 28.61
2001 CO2 32,622.29 8,293.19 9,255.79 1,662.55 51,833.81 SO2 391.12 7.82 8.73 32.08 439.75 NOx 115.29 14.08 15.72 4.89 149.98 CO 10.48 7.82 8.73 0.39 27.43
2002 CO2 27,993.36 9,200.92 13,144.17 1,712.77 52,051.22 SO2 334.49 8.68 12.40 33.05 388.62 NOx 103.62 15.62 22.32 5.04 146.60 CO 8.18 8.68 12.40 0.40 29.66
2003 CO2 25,689.25 10,045.29 17,033.32 1,611.04 54,378.90 SO2 306.11 9.48 16.07 31.08 362.74 NOx 98.62 17.06 28.92 4.74 149.34 CO 6.89 9.48 16.07 0.38 32.81
2004 CO2 24,501.95 11,097.16 19,644.33 1,741.87 56,985.30 SO2 293.04 10.47 18.53 33.61 355.65 NOx 89.58 18.84 33.36 5.12 146.90 CO 7.35 10.47 18.53 0.41 36.76
2005 CO2 26,240.02 11,337.66 19,539.37 1,470.12 58,587.17 SO2 311.62 10.70 18.43 28.36 369.11 NOx 105.14 19.25 33.18 4.32 161.90 CO 6.27 10.70 18.43 0.35 35.75
2006 CO2 31,289.55 8,053.10 21,590.22 1,505.47 62,438.35 SO2 371.22 7.60 20.37 29.05 428.23 NOx 126.89 13.68 36.66 4.43 181.65 CO 7.22 7.60 20.37 0.35 35.53
2007 CO2 39,289.78 8,646.06 21,642.01 1,550.27 71,128.12 SO2 465.37 8.16 20.42 29.91 523.85 NOx 162.55 14.68 36.75 4.56 218.54 CO 8.50 8.16 20.42 0.36 37.44
2008 CO2 40,505.62 9,196.40 22,542.39 1,618.79 73,863.19 SO2 479.73 8.68 21.27 31.23 540.91 NOx 167.72 15.62 38.28 4.76 226.38 CO 8.74 8.68 21.27 0.38 39.06
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Emission Production from Various Types of Power Plants in Malaysia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
CO2
SO2
NO
xCO CO
2SO
2N
Ox
CO CO2
SO2
NO
xCO CO
2SO
2N
Ox
CO CO2
SO2
NO
xCO CO
2SO
2N
Ox
CO CO2
SO2
NO
xCO CO
2SO
2N
Ox
CO CO2
SO2
NO
xCO
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Diesel EngineCombined CycleGas TurbineSteam Turbine
Figure 4.17 : Emission production from various types of power plant In Malaysia
from year 2000 - 2008
Table 4.17 shows the results of emission production from various types of
power plant in Malaysia from year 2000 to 2008. The results show the largest amount of
emission that has been emitted from each type of power plants is CO2. While Figure
4.17 reviewed the pattern of emission production from various types of power plant in
Malaysia. The results revealed that the steam turbine power plant is being the largest
contributor to the huge production of emission due to the high share in the coal usage.
The pattern also shows that the emission production from various power plants depends
on the percentage of the share in fuel mix energy used to generate the electricity. More
coal sharing may contribute to the increasing in emission production in a year.
Generally, the amount of emission production from combined cycle and gas
turbine are almost the same since the same energy source used which is natural gas.
However the trends revealed that the second largest power plant that is contributed to
generate electricity in Malaysia is combined cycle power plant. Apart from this, a
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combined cycle power plant is being the second largest contributor to huge emission
production and followed by the gas turbine. Meanwhile diesel engine power plant
revealed the insignificance share in the total emission.
4.4.4 Discussion on the emission effects from various types of power plant in
Malaysia from year 2000 to 2008
The data for installed capacity (MW) to generate electricity from various types of
power plant in Malaysia from the year 2000 to 2008 are tabulated in Table 3.4.3 and
illustrated in Figure 4.18 and Figure 4.19
Table 3.15 shows that the electricity generation from fossil fuels is much higher
than renewable resources due to high demand in generating the electricity by using the
fossil fuel power plant. Electricity generation using biomass fuel is still new in Malaysia
with only a small portion of contribution and besides the production has just began in
the year 2008. Many companies in Malaysia particularly the oil and gas have started
developing and increasing biomass fuel in their production to generate the electricity. In
general, there are two types of power plants that are using a combination of mix fuel
energy resources as their input to generate the electricity. These two types of power
plants are steam turbine which uses a combination of three types of fuel mix and also
gas turbine which uses a combination of two types of fuel mix energy resources. Only
steam turbine power plant is using coal as their input energy with the combination of
two others fuels, natural gas and oil. Meanwhile, gas turbine power plant is using a
combination of types of fuel mix, natural gas and diesel as the input to generate the
electricity.
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Figure 4.18 : Malaysia Installed Capacity in Year 2000
Figure 4.19 : Malaysia Installed Capacity in Year 2008
Figure 4.18 and Figure 4.19 show the comparison between the share of each type
of power plant that contributed in electricity generation in the year 2000 and 2008.
These figures also show that the share of conventional thermal (coal) increased
significantly from 5.3% to 27.2%. This proves conventional thermal (coal) which is also
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known as steam turbine as being the major contributor to the emission production. On
the other hand, the diesel engine power plant is slowly phasing out and the share is also
slowly decreasing from 2.2% to 2.0% in year 2008 due to the phasing out of oil
consumption in the future. This type of power plant does not give much impact to the
environment due to its insignificance share in the total emission.
The production of electricity from gas turbine power plant is decreasing from
26% to 16.6% in year 2008. If we were to compare between coal and natural gas,
natural gas does not give huge contribution to the pollution due its emission factor per
unit electricity generation is much less than coal. In fact, from the figure also shows that
the share of hydro power plant and mini hydro power plant also decreased from 15.5%
to 9.5% and from 0.3% to 0.1%. The decreased share in hydro power plant also
contributed to the increased in emission production. The emission production can be
reduced by decreasing the dependency on conventional thermal (coal) power plant in
the future and substituting it with the renewable power plants. With reference to Table
3.15, we can observe that from year 2000 to 2005 the usage of combined cycle power
plant increased, but it dropped to 14.3% in the year 2006 and this trend has been
leveling out. If we were to compare between years 2000 to 2008, the share of the
combined cycle power increased from 38.1% to 40.3%. From Table 4.12, the prediction
shows that the consumption of natural gas is declining due the concurring of the coal
usage.
From these results, we can predict that the share of combined cycle power plant
will be decreasing drastically while the share of conventional thermal (coal) plant will
be increasing tremendously by end of year 2030 due to the monopoly of the coal usage.
Therefore, the government of Malaysia should take serious measures in avoiding too
much dependency in coal and increasing back the share of combined cycle power plant
due to its highest efficiency compared to other fossil fuel power plants. Besides, as
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mentioned before Malaysia should balance up the mix fuel energy input to generate
electricity with increased share of various types of renewable resources such as hydro,
biomass, solar, landfill gas and others in order to reduce the emission production in
Malaysia for the future.
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CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Conclusions
From the analysis that was obtained from objective 1 in the previous chapter, this
study has shown the current and future pattern of the energy supply and demand,
commercial mix energy supply, final energy use by sectors and final energy
consumption and GDP growth in Malaysia for the past and next of 19 years. Besides,
the analysis from objective 2, has shown the current and future pattern of the electricity
demand and generated, electricity generation from various mix energy (exclude co-
generation and private licensed plants), total electricity generation for various types of
power, electricity consumption by sectors, trends in GDP, total electricity demand per
capita (J/capita) and total electricity generated per capita (J/capita) in Malaysia for the
past and next of 19 years. Finally the analysis from objective 3, has shown the
environmental impact due to the emission production from the electricity generation in
Malaysia, the prediction of the future potential emission per unit of electricity
generation in Malaysia and emission effects from various types of power plant that
generate electricity in Malaysia.
The conclusions that have been derived from this study are as per below:
1) Total primary energy supply is expected to increase until year 2030 due to the
increasing of the future energy demand. The demand of the energy usage is
expected to increase tremendously due to the anticipated higher GDP growth.
2) The production of the crude oil and petroleum products in Malaysia is
expected to decline from year to year while the use of natural gas, coal and
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coke is expected to increase and the contribution by hydro will remain about
the same.
3) The industrial sector is expected remain to be the largest consumer of energy
in Malaysia. While the electricity consumption from residential and
commercial sectors are expected to increase and being the major consumer in
the electricity generation.
4) Total electricity generated is expected to increase until year 2030 due to the
increasing of the future electricity demand. The steam turbine power plant is
expected to be the major contributor of the electricity generation in Malaysia
due to the expected of high dependency on coal utilization.
5) Natural gas is being the major contributor to current trending of electricity
generation. While coal is expected to be the major contributor for the future
pattern of the electricity generation in Malaysia due to the declining of the
natural gas usage by reducing the high dependence on natural gas in the
generation mix.
6) Future electricity demand and trends GDP in Malaysia are expected to
increase and keep growing due to the increasing of the population, economic
growth and high development in Malaysia.
7) The annual growth rates of GDP, energy demand and electricity demand are
expected to reach the stability stage starting from year 2016 and slowly
depleting due to the fully matured of the economy in year 2021.
8) The future pattern shows that the emission production from electricity
generation also depends on the percentage of the share in fuel mix energy
used to generate the electricity. Large emission is produced when usage of
coal is at the highest share.
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9) Among the various types of power plants that have been used to generate
electricity, the combined cycle power plant has been the major contributor to
the emission production. The emission production can be reduced by
replacing the mix fuel energy input with the renewable resources power plants.
5.2 Recommendations
Malaysia Government should maintain the strategy in diversifying the energy
resources due to move away from huge dependency on single source supply especially
on oil to develop its renewable resources especially hydro power and biomass.
Therefore the recommendations that have been from this study are as follow:
1) Malaysia should increase the usage of the renewable energy such as hydro and
biomass in electricity generation in order to reduce the high dependence on coal
for the future and balance up the mix energy generation from focusing in using
certain types of energy. This would help to reduce emissions in the future and also
help the Malaysian utilities to survive in the global market, due to high cost of
conserving emissions in the future.
2) Malaysia should be starting to implement the energy saving in building in order to
reduce the electricity consumption.
3) To reduce the dependency in steam turbine or thermal power plant and replace it
with the combined cycle power plant to generate the electricity due to its high
efficiency. Besides Malaysia should increase the electricity generation from this
hydro power plant and other renewable power plants in the future due to the
higher efficiency and long term saving. This will ultimately help to reduce the
emission production in the future. This helps to reduce the dependency on coal
usage and also to reduce the emission production.
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4) R&D needs to be more focused on further increasing efficiencies, reducing
emissions of local air pollutants to near zero, developing plants compatible with
carbon capture and storage and reducing the capital costs of plants.
5) Local air pollution must be minimized using advanced generation and emissions
control equipment, where applicable.
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