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Analysis of the Japan-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement
By Thomas Hertel,Ken Itakura and Jeffrey ReimerCenter for Global Trade Analysis
Purdue University
General approach• Respond to study group’s concerns (February):
– Impacts on Unemployment– Linking trade and market structure to productivity– FDI linkages to productivity and growth– Model validation, trade elasticities/robustness of results
• Draw on outside econometric work relating:– Exports to firm-level productivity– Imports to pro-competitive effects on markups and
output per firm – FDI to productivity– Estimation of trade elasticities
Introduction• Japan-ASEAN FTA is most recent in a flurry of
regional trade initiatives• Japan-Singapore FTA is already underway, this
would add other ASEAN members• ASEAN is a heterogeneous region:
– range from less-developed to developed economies– patterns of specialization and trade are generally
complementary to Japan
Adding links to productivity: Impacts of increased imports
• Many different mechanisms for imports to affect productivity:– Technology spillovers: van Meijl et al.– New varieties: Romer– Procompetitive effects: Markusen
• Focus here on pro-competitive effects:– Theory is well developed– Some empirical work to draw upon– Seems appropriate in context of Japan-ASEAN FTA
Theory: Hertel, JIE, 1994
• Small, open economy• Imports differentiated goods which compete
with protected domestic sector exhibiting:– Scale economies– Potentially restricted entry– Oligopoly markups
• Exports undifferentiated product produced under PC/CRTS
• Contrast impacts of tariff cut on diff. product with outcome under PC/CRTS
Case III in Hertel (1994): Foreign varieties displace domestics (fully packed product space)
• Welfare depends on scale of domestic production• In GE, rationalization occurs
– Markups fall– Output per firm increases– Welfare increases
• Change in output per firm and size of welfare gain are directly proportional to the magnitude of the responsive of domestic markups to foreign price cuts
Exports and productivity
• Problem of causality: exporters are more productive because they export, or they are exporting because they are more productive.
• Bernard and Jensen (2001) control this by looking at the behavior of 50,000 individual plants in the US from 1983-92.– Firms always export during this period are 8 – 9%
productive than firms never export– Once start exporting, productivity converges on that
of exporting firms– Once stop exporting, productivity drops towards
that of firms that never exported
FDI and productivity
• Strong relationship between FDI and productivity (Rodrik 1999), but few empirical studies
• Chuang and Lin (1999) confirm the existence of beneficial spillovers from FDI
• 1% increase in FDI’s share of capital stock produces 1.40% increase in domestic firm productivity. This is only applied to ASEAN countries, where FDI impacts of the FTA may be significant
Comparative Static Analysis
• Based on:– 2005 data projections– Change in trade balance from dynamic model
• Include productivity effects:– Decompose to uncover relative importance– SR GDP impacts with addition of productivity – Welfare impacts– Sector Impacts:
• Output• Employment
GDP effects of FTA in presence of productivity shocks: 2005 in US$ million
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Japan Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam
Productivity increase from Trade Productivity increase from FDI Standard Model
Percent change in per capita welfare, 2005
0.02
-0.02
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Japan Singapore Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Vietnam ROW
Productivity increase from Trade Productivity increase from FDI Standard Model
The pro-competitive and FDI effects dampen decline in ASEAN hi-tech mnfcing
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
chemicals metals autos machinery
totaltariffs onlyproductivity
Japanese employment impacts of FTA (number of jobs)
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Food & Ag Resource LightMnfcs HighTech Services
Skilled Labor Unskilled Labor
Interactions of FTA with Unemployment in Japan and ASEAN:
Change in Aggregate Employment
Skilled Labor Unskilled Labor
Japan 0.4 0.4Indonesia -1.2 -0.5Malaysia 0.4 0.8Philippines -1.0 0.4Thailand -0.3 2.3Vietnam 7.8 7.9
Employment impacts in Japan in presence of unemployment
(number of jobs)
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Food & Ag Resource LightMnfcts HighTech Services
Skilled Labor Unskilled Labor
Comparing the impacts on Unskilled Labor between Full / Unemployment closures
(number of jobs)
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Food & Ag Resource LightMnfcts HighTech Services
Full employment closure Unemployment closure
Robustness of results
• Trade elasticities are key determinant of welfare changes following FTA
• Standard GTAP elasticities are:– Excessively aggregate– Based on literature review– Out of date
• We have estimated a new set of trade elasticities at the disaggregated GTAP commodity level using the methodology of Hummels
• Use estimated standard errors to guide SSA
Robustness of trade elasticities: Estimate divided by standard error
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ric
e
Gra
ins
Oth
er c
rops
Mea
t
Oth
er fo
od
Fore
stry
Fish
Ext
ract
ion
Texti
les/
appa
rel
Leat
her
prod
ucts
Pap
er a
ndw
ood
prod
ucts
Che
mic
alpr
oduc
ts
Met
al p
rodu
cts
Auto
mot
ive
Mac
hine
ry
Elec
trica
leq
uipm
entTr
ade
elas
ticity
div
ided
by
stan
dard
dev
iatio
n
Robustness of Japan-ASEAN FTA results with regard to trade elasticities
3.0
-20.6-26.5
-32.7-28.0
-5.1
4.3 5.3 7.4
14.7
3.3
-29.2
-19.5
-42.3
-9.4-5.9 -3.9
-26.9
-2.9
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Japa
n
Kor
ea
Chi
na
Hon
g K
ong
Taiw
an
Sin
gapo
re
Indo
nesi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Phi
lippi
nes
Thai
land
Viet
nam
Sou
th A
sia
Aust
la /
New
Zea
lnd
US
A
Can
ada
Mex
ico
Cen
tral/S
outh
Am
eric
a
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Res
t of w
orld
Mea
n eq
uiva
lent
var
iatio
n (w
elfa
re)
rela
tive
to s
tand
ard
devi
atio
n
Summary and Next Steps• Impacts of Japan-ASEAN FTA:
– Hinge importantly on impacts of trade and investment on productivity
– Of particular importance are:• Pro-competitive effects of trade liberalization on import-competing,
high-tech industries in ASEAN• Impacts of increased FDI on productivity in ASEAN
• Evaluate and finalize trade-investment-productivity linkages
• Incorporate productivity linkages into dynamic analysis
Welfare Effects: Summary
• ASEAN gains dominated by trade and investment driven productivity increases– Largest proportional gains for Vietnam– Largest absolute gains for Thailand (45% ASEAN)– Singapore has small loss due to erosion of recent
preferences obtained in JP-SNG FTA• Welfare impacts are:
– robust to estimated uncertainty in trade elasticities– but sensitivity to productivity parameters needs
further investigation
Sector Effects: Summary
• Japan-ASEAN FTA reinforces current, complementary trade patterns:– ASEAN exports more food, resources and light
mnfcs to Japan– Japan exports more high-tech goods to ASEAN
• Pro-competitive effects dampen contraction in ASEAN high-tech sector
• Unemployment closure:– Reduces contraction in Japanese agriculture sector– Gives a large boost to services employment