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Analysis of Solar Data. GATF. Background. ERCOT has acquired 20 years (1991 to 2010) of solar data as part of the Long Term Study analysis. The solar data and report is located at: http://www.ercot.com/committees/other/lts/index . The data is hour ending, e.g. hour 1 is hour ending 1 A.M. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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GATF
Analysis of Solar Data
April 2013
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Background
• ERCOT has acquired 20 years (1991 to 2010) of solar data as part of the Long Term Study analysis.
• The solar data and report is located at: http://www.ercot.com/committees/other/lts/index.
– The data is hour ending, e.g. hour 1 is hour ending 1 A.M.
• This data was developed by URS Corporation under contract financed by the Department of Energy grant provided for preparing the Long Term Study.
• URS will be making a presentation about the development of the solar curves at the April 30th ETWG meeting.
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Outline
• Demonstrated on the coming slides, ERCOT has calculated the capability of solar at different exceedance probabilities in both tabular and graphical form.– “Year” in tables and charts refers to “Weather Year”, e.g. 1997 is the
Weather Year 1997.
• Two counties (Bexar and Pecos) are included.
• The technologies analyzed are: – Photovoltaic Fixed Tilt (PVFT),
– Photovoltaic Single Access Tracking (PVSAT), and
– Residential Photovoltaic Model (RES).
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“ELCC” at different probabilities (Pecos County by PV Technology)
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Pecos County Midland International Airport (Weather Station # 722650)
Period Analyzed June to August 1600 to 1800 hours
Year Average P50 P75 P90 Year Average P50 P75 P90 Year Average P50 P75 P901991 43.1% 45.8% 26.9% 21.0% 1991 65.3% 71.1% 53.5% 34.9% 1991 38.6% 41.2% 22.9% 18.1%1992 40.1% 39.7% 25.2% 18.7% 1992 59.0% 63.0% 41.1% 24.3% 1992 35.9% 35.6% 21.7% 16.1%1993 39.5% 38.2% 25.3% 18.4% 1993 59.5% 64.3% 44.5% 23.7% 1993 35.3% 34.1% 21.6% 15.7%1994 43.3% 46.3% 27.1% 22.5% 1994 67.1% 73.1% 59.1% 32.8% 1994 38.9% 41.6% 23.2% 19.4%1995 44.3% 47.0% 27.5% 21.3% 1995 68.5% 75.5% 56.3% 40.6% 1995 39.8% 42.2% 23.4% 18.4%1996 40.9% 41.3% 26.2% 20.5% 1996 61.9% 65.6% 49.7% 31.5% 1996 36.6% 36.9% 22.4% 17.6%1997 39.6% 39.5% 24.5% 18.4% 1997 58.5% 65.5% 43.2% 23.7% 1997 35.4% 35.3% 21.2% 15.8%1998 43.6% 48.3% 27.4% 17.1% 1998 68.1% 74.9% 62.6% 20.4% 1998 39.2% 43.4% 23.7% 14.7%1999 42.7% 46.4% 27.7% 18.6% 1999 65.6% 73.1% 58.3% 21.5% 1999 38.4% 41.8% 23.9% 16.0%2000 44.1% 47.7% 27.3% 20.9% 2000 67.8% 73.9% 58.7% 27.8% 2000 39.7% 43.2% 23.6% 18.0%2001 43.7% 47.7% 27.9% 19.6% 2001 68.4% 75.2% 63.0% 27.6% 2001 39.2% 43.0% 23.9% 16.9%2002 43.7% 47.8% 27.6% 20.0% 2002 67.3% 73.4% 57.8% 28.8% 2002 39.2% 43.0% 23.6% 17.2%2003 42.8% 47.1% 27.9% 20.1% 2003 65.9% 72.7% 55.1% 22.3% 2003 38.4% 42.2% 23.9% 17.3%2004 42.0% 44.4% 26.8% 14.2% 2004 64.3% 73.2% 54.3% 12.9% 2004 37.6% 39.5% 23.1% 12.0%2005 43.0% 45.9% 27.3% 18.7% 2005 65.6% 73.2% 50.8% 23.2% 2005 38.6% 41.3% 23.5% 16.1%2006 44.0% 47.9% 27.7% 22.2% 2006 69.0% 73.9% 62.5% 34.7% 2006 39.5% 43.2% 23.7% 19.3%2007 41.2% 43.8% 26.2% 14.1% 2007 62.2% 70.8% 39.3% 15.2% 2007 36.9% 39.2% 22.7% 11.9%2008 43.7% 49.4% 27.7% 20.4% 2008 68.2% 74.3% 63.9% 25.7% 2008 39.2% 44.2% 23.7% 17.7%2009 42.5% 47.2% 27.3% 16.5% 2009 65.5% 73.6% 56.3% 17.3% 2009 38.2% 42.7% 23.3% 14.0%2010 40.7% 43.3% 25.3% 11.3% 2010 62.2% 72.3% 43.4% 10.2% 2010 36.5% 39.1% 21.9% 9.4%
Average 42.4% 45.2% 26.8% 18.7% Average 65.0% 71.6% 53.7% 25.0% Average 38.1% 40.6% 23.0% 16.1%
Pecos County (PV Fixed Tilt) Pecos County (PV Single-Axis Tracking) Pecos County (Residential PV)URS Corporation URS Corporation URS Corporation
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Pecos County (PV Fixed Tilt Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Pecos County (PV Fixed Tilt Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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Pecos County (PV Single Axis Tracking Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Pecos County (PV Single Axis Tracking Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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Pecos County (Residential PV Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Pecos County (Residential PV Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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“ELCC” at different probabilities (Bexar County by PV Technology)
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Bexar County San Antonio International Airport (Weather Station # 722530)
Period Analyzed June to August 1600 to 1800 hours
Year Average P50 P75 P90 Year Average P50 P75 P90 Year Average P50 P75 P901991 39.5% 39.4% 23.7% 19.5% 1991 58.1% 60.4% 43.9% 28.9% 1991 35.3% 35.1% 20.3% 16.8%1992 42.6% 45.4% 25.0% 21.4% 1992 64.8% 68.1% 55.6% 37.9% 1992 38.1% 40.7% 21.4% 18.5%1993 41.3% 43.8% 25.1% 20.0% 1993 62.2% 65.4% 48.2% 33.6% 1993 36.9% 39.2% 21.5% 17.2%1994 40.3% 41.7% 25.0% 19.6% 1994 61.1% 64.5% 50.2% 34.9% 1994 36.0% 37.2% 21.3% 16.8%1995 44.9% 47.5% 27.1% 23.5% 1995 72.5% 76.1% 66.4% 49.7% 1995 40.2% 42.5% 23.0% 20.2%1996 44.2% 47.5% 26.3% 22.1% 1996 70.6% 74.7% 60.9% 46.3% 1996 39.5% 42.5% 22.4% 18.9%1997 43.0% 45.6% 26.4% 22.9% 1997 68.1% 72.2% 58.6% 43.4% 1997 38.5% 40.8% 22.5% 19.7%1998 40.7% 46.2% 26.0% 13.1% 1998 63.3% 72.0% 55.4% 11.8% 1998 36.4% 41.1% 22.0% 11.1%1999 40.5% 39.2% 24.2% 15.5% 1999 61.6% 70.7% 39.8% 15.8% 1999 36.2% 34.9% 20.8% 13.0%2000 42.8% 46.9% 26.9% 21.4% 2000 66.7% 72.9% 58.1% 33.7% 2000 38.3% 41.7% 23.0% 18.4%2001 42.5% 47.0% 26.6% 19.5% 2001 65.6% 72.8% 55.4% 26.0% 2001 38.1% 42.3% 22.7% 16.8%2002 40.1% 40.7% 25.0% 16.0% 2002 61.0% 68.7% 43.6% 18.4% 2002 35.9% 36.3% 21.6% 13.6%2003 39.2% 41.7% 24.0% 11.2% 2003 59.2% 67.6% 44.8% 10.2% 2003 35.0% 37.3% 20.7% 9.3%2004 39.8% 38.8% 24.9% 14.7% 2004 60.0% 69.0% 37.0% 13.6% 2004 35.5% 34.6% 21.4% 12.5%2005 42.3% 46.0% 26.3% 19.9% 2005 65.4% 71.0% 55.5% 24.6% 2005 37.8% 41.1% 22.4% 17.2%2006 40.9% 42.9% 26.4% 20.8% 2006 63.0% 66.8% 50.4% 27.5% 2006 36.6% 38.4% 22.6% 18.0%2007 38.0% 34.3% 22.6% 10.9% 2007 56.6% 65.6% 31.1% 9.8% 2007 33.9% 30.3% 19.5% 9.1%2008 39.6% 41.0% 24.6% 12.5% 2008 60.5% 69.6% 40.3% 11.7% 2008 35.4% 36.5% 21.2% 10.5%2009 42.1% 46.2% 26.3% 19.8% 2009 65.3% 71.4% 57.8% 29.2% 2009 37.7% 41.5% 22.4% 17.1%2010 41.2% 45.6% 25.0% 14.5% 2010 63.6% 72.2% 50.0% 14.2% 2010 36.9% 40.7% 21.4% 12.3%
Average 41.3% 43.4% 25.4% 17.9% Average 63.5% 69.6% 50.2% 26.1% Average 36.9% 38.7% 21.7% 15.3%
URS Corporation URS Corporation URS CorporationBexar County (PV Fixed Tilt) Bexar County (PV Single-Axis Tracking) Bexar County (Residential PV)
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Bexar County (PV Fixed Tilt Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Bexar County (PV Fixed Tilt Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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Bexar County (PV Single Axis Tracking Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Bexar County (PV Single Axis Tracking Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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Bexar County (Residential PV Technology) Capability under Different Exceedance Levels
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Bexar County (Residential PV Technology) Solar Generation Duration Curve
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QUESTIONS / COMMENTS???
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