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Shift-share analysis has become one of the most popular tools to explain in detail the economic structure of a particular region. Aggregate nature of general growth theories hides the industrial variations. Shift-share analysis helps to find out these important industrial variations. This tool breaks down the economic growth of any region or district by analyzing its industrial structure. This study focused on the economic structure of the Rangpur district. The objective is to decompose its economic growth and isolate the effects of its industrial mix into its economic performance. Gross district product (GDP) at market price by different industrial sectors has been taken as a variable to define Rangpur districts economic structure. In these purpose the GDP data for the two different years have been collected. Shift share analysis has been done using these GDP data. The shift-share components provide the base for this analysis. With an aid of these components, potential and weak sectors of Rangpur have been identified. An attempt has been made to find out the factors behind the growth pattern of this advantaged and disadvantaged group of sectors. An effort has also been exerted to relate those factors with the employment in different sectors as well as demographic and socio-economic profile of Rangpur district.
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A l i f E i G th A l i f E i G th Analysis of Economic Growth Analysis of Economic Growth Pattern of Rangpur District Pattern of Rangpur District gpgpBased on ShiftBased on Shift--Share Analysis Share Analysis
Submitted ByMd T i H i Sh bhMd. Tanvir Hossain Shubho
Undergraduate StudentDepartment of Urban and Regional Planning,
Bangladesh University of Engineering and TechnologyBangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
IntroductionIntroduction
This study is intended to have a glance on the effects ofdifferent industrial sectors on the economic growth ofRangpurRangpur.
The Shift-Share analysis has been done based on thecontribution to the national Gross District Product atcurrent market price by different industrial sectors ofRangpur district.
ObjectivesObjectives of the Studyof the Study
To analyze the effect of industrial structure on the
jj yy
economic growth of Rangpur district over the periodfrom 1995-96 to 1999-00.
To identify the fast and slow growing industries inRangpur district.Rangpur district.
To exemplify the reasons behind this pattern of growthwith respect to the profile of Rangpur district as well asthe relationship between GDP and employment ofdifferent sectors in Rangpurdifferent sectors in Rangpur.
Map of RangpurMap of RangpurDistrict District
Profile of Rangpur District Profile of Rangpur District Type of Household
Profile of Rangpur District Profile of Rangpur District
60708090
100
99.19 99.32
hous
ehol
dYear 1991 Year 2001
01020304050
0.23 0.590.30 0.37
Perc
enta
ge o
f h
Dwelling Institutional Other
Household Type
Structure Type in 2001
9.67%
7.42%2.51%
Structure Type in 2001
JhupriKutchaSemi-puccaPucca
80.40%
Profile of Rangpur District Profile of Rangpur District Ownership Pattern of Dwelling Household
100
hold Year 1991 Year 2001
88.83 91.50
40
60
80ag
e of
hou
seh
2.698.483.10 5.40
0
20
Owened Rented Rent free
perc
ent
Ownership TypeOwnership Type
Electricity Connection
87.8381.23
5060708090
100
hous
ehol
d
12.1718.77
01020304050
Perc
enta
ge o
f h
Year 1991
Year 2001
With electricity Without electricityP
Electricity Connectivity
Profile of Rangpur District Profile of Rangpur District
Main Source of Income
gpgp
Main Source of Income
354045
ehol
dYear 1991 Year 2001
1015202530
ntag
e of
hou
se
05
10
vest
ock/
y ic
ultu
re
l lab
our
l lab
our
Wea
ving
orks
hop
Bus
ines
s
Haw
ker
Tran
sort
truct
ion
serv
ice
oym
ent
Ren
tal
mitt
ance
othe
rs
Perc
en
Agr
icul
ture
/lIv
fore
stry
Fish
ing
/pis
ci
Agr
icul
tura
l
Non
-agr
icul
tura
l W
Indu
stry
/wo B H T
Con
st
Rel
igio
us
Emlo
Rem
Main Source of IncomeMain Source of Income
ShiftShift--Share Analysis for Rangpur DistrictShare Analysis for Rangpur District
70
80
ShiftShift Share Analysis for Rangpur DistrictShare Analysis for Rangpur District
20
30
40
50
60ta
ge o
f GD
P
% f
-20
-10
0
10
20
Perc
ent % of
Proportionality Shift
% of Differential
and
Fore
stry
Fish
ing
nd Q
uarr
ying
Man
ufac
ture
Wat
er S
uppl
y
Con
stru
ctio
n
Ret
ail T
rade
nd R
esta
uran
t
mm
unic
atio
n
nter
med
iatio
n
and
Bus
ines
s s an
d D
efen
se
Educ
atio
n
Soci
al W
orks
onal
Ser
vice
s
Differential Shift
% of National Share
Agr
icul
ture
Min
ing
an
M
city
, Gas
and
W C
Who
lesa
le a
nd
Hot
el a
n
tora
ge a
nd C
om
Fina
ncia
l In
stat
e, R
entin
g a
Act
iviti
es
Adm
inis
tratio
n
Hea
lth a
nd S
ocia
l and
Per
so
Elec
tric W
Tran
spor
t, St
Rea
l Es
Publ
ic A
Com
mun
ity, S
oCDifferent sectors in Rangpur district
Potential and weak sectors of Rangpur district Potential and weak sectors of Rangpur district
Potential sector Weak sectorAgriculture and Forestry ConstructionAgriculture and Forestry Construction
Fishing Financial IntermediationPublic Administration and
Mining and Quarrying DefenseManufacture Health and Social Works
Electricity, Gas and Water Supplyy, pp yWholesale and Retail Trade
Hotel and RestaurantT S d Transport, Storage and
CommunicationReal Estate, Renting and Business
ActivitiesEducation
Community, Social and Personal Community, Social and Personal Services
Potential Sectors Potential Sectors
Agricultural and Forestry:Proportionality Shift: -6.30% ; Differential Shift: 0.98%National growth rate for this sector over 1995 96 to 1999 00 are 36 62% National growth rate for this sector over 1995-96 to 1999-00 are 36.62%
and the district’s growth rate is 37.61%.Rangpur is enriched in good forest and agricultural resources
Fishing sector:Proportionality Shift: 16.63%; Differential Shift: 2.52%There are about 23,200 ponds in the district of them 18,450 are being
used for fish farmingBesides, there are about 225 beels, 23 rivers , 19 water bodies and about
22 thousand hectares of low lands in the district where fish is being cultivated extensively
Mining and Quarrying:Proportionality Shift: -14.18%; Differential Shift: 71.25% Khalspir coal field accelerates the growth in coal mining and quarryingKhalspir coal field accelerates the growth in coal mining and quarrying
Potential Sectors Potential Sectors
Education sector:Proportionality Shift: 19.70% ; Differential Shift: 14.44%Increase in number of schools contributes to number of employment Increase in number of schools contributes to number of employment
opportunity and enhance the GDP contributionIt is basic economic sector whose high LQ value supports the positive l f diff i l i h 2 209 d i l i ivalue of differential component with 2,209 educational institutes
Real-estate, Renting and Business Activity:Proportionality Shift: -3.63%; Differential Shift: 3.15%Percentage of people having to pay for their residence is increasing with
the increased density.yEven district growth rate is much higher than the national for this sector
Manufacture Sector:Manufacture Sector:Proportionality Shift: -1.44%; Differential Shift: 1.36% Manufacture of several products such as manufacture of tobacco, food
products and beverage basic metal etc enjoy the locational advantagesproducts and beverage, basic metal etc. enjoy the locational advantages
Potential Sectors Potential Sectors
Wholesale and Retail Sector:
Potential Sectors Potential Sectors
Proportionality Shift: -1.29% ; Differential Shift: 6.30%District growth rate for this sector is much higher than the national
growth rategrowth rateWholesale as the forward linkage for the manufacturing sector and
reversely the manufacturing acting as a backward linkage
Transport, Storage and Communication:Proportionality Shift: -6.96%; Differential Shift: 4.15%Sh i ll k l i R di t i t d th Shyampur is a very well known place in Rangpur district under the
Badargonj police station where there are few cold storagesAmong other occupations the transport is a major job sector
providing employment of 5.93% people
Weak Sectors Weak Sectors
Construction Sector:Proportionality Shift: 17.28% ; Differential Shift: -0.01%
Weak Sectors Weak Sectors
Proportionality Shift: 17.28% ; Differential Shift: 0.01%Regional growth was increased over the year 1995-96 to 1999-00But, there was an identical district GDP growth rate over the nationwide
growth rategrowth rateOnly 0.80% people were involved in construction sector in 1991, which
was increased to 1.12% in 2001 A i i li i di i hi d i h Antagonistic climatic condition hinders its growth
Financial Intermediation:Proportionality Shift: 2.32%; Differential Shift: -7.76%There was a decrease in the percentage of GDP contribution in the region
over the year 1995-96 to 1999-00;though there was a nationally small y g yincrease in GDP contribution in that period for this sector
This sector is constrained by two critical barriers: institutional rigidities and lack of understanding among formal financial sector institutionsand lack of understanding among formal financial sector institutions
Weak Sectors Weak Sectors Weak Sectors Weak Sectors
Public Administration and Defense Sector:Proportionality Shift: 12.28%; Differential Shift: -0.15%A slow district growth rate of this sector than national respectg pThe percentage of GDP increased regionally over 1995-96 to 1999-00
very insignificantly
Health and Social Works:Proportionality Shift: 4.86%; Differential Shift: -0.%It also holds a slow district growth rate than the nationalIt also holds a slow district growth rate than the nationalThe district is hindered because of lack of social safety-net in the context
of climate change and lack of budget allocation for health sector
Major Findings Major Findings Major Findings Major Findings Sectors Major FindingsAgriculture and Forestry Potential sector, percentage contribution of this sector in GDP is
d b h ll d R d b ll decreasing both nationally and in Rangpur district but it is still major source of GDP in Rangpur.
Mining and Quarrying Potential sector, GDP contribution has been doubled from 1995-96 to 1999-00.96 to 999 00.
Manufacture Potential sector, manufacturing of food and beverage, basic metal are basic sectors. Strength of Agricultural and Forestry in Rangpur is supporting the manufacturing sector.
Construction Weak sector, percentage increase from 1995-96 to 199-00 is very low in this sector.
Hotel and Restaurant Potential sector, but no major change in the percentage of contribution in GDP has been found over the 5 year period.contribution in GDP has been found over the 5 year period.
Financial Intermediation Weak sector, percentage of GDP contribution in this sector has been decreased in Rangpur region over the year 1995-96 to 1999-00
Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities
Potential sector, residents with rent free facility has decreased.
Education Potential sector, GDP contribution from this sector has increased. Has higher district growth rate than the national growth rate.Has higher district growth rate than the national growth rate.
Health and Social Works Weak sector, contributes a better percentage of GDP over 1995-96 to 1999-00
Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation Recommendation
Although, Rangpur district has locational advantage for ‘Agriculture and Forestry’ sector, contribution from this sector has decreased. So people engaged in agricultural works need to be encouraged by providing them fertilizer and seeds in low price.
Manufacturing is also a strong sector but all the manufacturing sectors g g gare not strong. Sectors like manufacturing of textiles, furniture, wood products, fabricated metals, rubber and plastic products are lagging behind So these sectors need special carebehind. So these sectors need special care.
Thank YouThank You
District's Proportionality Mix Differential Shift
Name of Different SectorsNational Growth
Rate
District s Sectoral Growth Factor
National Share
Proportionality Mix Differential Shift
Prop
orti
onal
ity
Shift
Perc
ent
Diff
eren
tia
l Shi
ft
Perc
ent
Agriculture and Forestry 36.63% 37.61% 3331.94 -489.28 -6.30% 76.34 0.98%Agriculture and Forestry 36.63% 37.61% 3331.94 489.28 6.30% 76.34 0.98%Fishing 59.56% 62.08% 165.27 64.03 16.63% 9.70 2.52%
Mining and Quarrying 28.75% 100.00% 28.33 -9.36 -14.18% 47.03 71.25%
Manufacture 41.48% 42.84% 650.33 -21.88 -1.44% 20.55 1.36%Electricity, Gas and Water Supply
29.15% 43.50% 161.83 -51.92 -13.77% 54.09 14.35%
Construction 60.21% 60.20% 1079.60 434.61 17.28% -0.21 -0.01%Wholesale and Retail Trade 41.64% 47.94% 1043.97 -31.30 -1.29% 153.33 6.30%Hotel and Restaurant 49.52% 49.70% 72.55 11.14 6.59% 0.32 0.19%Transport, Storage and Communication
35.96% 40.11% 1091.61 -177.04 -6.96% 105.43 4.15%
Financial Intermediation 45.25% 37.49% 458.02 24.80 2.32% -82.82 -7.76%Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities
39.30% 42.45% 1326.85 -112.12 -3.63% 97.27 3.15%
Public Administration and Defense
55.21% 55.06% 152.82 43.73 12.28% -0.55 -0.15%
Education 62.63% 77.07% 290.18 133.18 19.70% 97.64 14.44%Health and Social Works 47.78% 47.20% 314.65 35.59 4.86% -4.24 -0.58%Community, Social and Personal Services
42.32% 42.34% 1249.15 -17.50 -0.60% 0.35 0.01%
Total 42.93% 44.47% 11417.10 -163.31 -0.61% 574.22 2.16%
