Analysing Data.

Looking at the use of data to monitor the achievement of pupils and

departments.

M.Greenaway.

12+ Reading Score KS2 or KS3 Mathematics Result Average KS2 or KS3 Result Previous examination result Mathematics NFER test result

• BE CONSISTENT AND USE THE SAME DATA OVER A PERIOD OF TIME.

Baseline Data.

GCSE Grades are converted to figures

Grade A* = 8 Grade A = 7 Grade B = 6

Grade C = 5

Grade D = 4

Grade E = 3

Grade F = 2

Grade G = 1

Begin with the Baseline Data

In this case 12+ reading scores

Begin with the Baseline Data

In this case 12+ reading scores

Reading

Score

A 112

B 86

C 97

d 123

e 92

f 75

g 105

Baseline Data

Enter the Data for each subject: MathsEnter the Data for each subject: Maths

Reading Maths

Score

A 112 5

B 86 3

C 97 5

d 123 7

e 92 5

f 75 4

g 105 5

Baseline Data

EnglishEnglish

Reading Maths English

Score

A 112 5 6

B 86 3 5

C 97 5 6

d 123 7 5

e 92 5 6

f 75 4 4

g 105 5 6

Baseline Data

Religious StudiesReligious Studies

Reading Maths English RE

Score

A 112 5 6 5

B 86 3 5 5

C 97 5 6 4

d 123 7 5 6

e 92 5 6 3

f 75 4 4 4

g 105 5 6 4

Baseline Data

And finally ScienceAnd finally Science

Reading Maths English RE Science

Score

A 112 5 6 5 4

B 86 3 5 5 3

C 97 5 6 4 4

d 123 7 5 6 8

e 92 5 6 3 3

f 75 4 4 4 2

g 105 5 6 4 3

Baseline Data

Next we work out the total score for each studentNext we work out the total score for each student

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4

B 86 3 5 5 3

C 97 5 6 4 4

d 123 7 5 6 8

e 92 5 6 3 3

f 75 4 4 4 2

g 105 5 6 4 3

Baseline Data

Student A has a total of 20Student A has a total of 20

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3

C 97 5 6 4 4

d 123 7 5 6 8

e 92 5 6 3 3

f 75 4 4 4 2

g 105 5 6 4 3

Baseline Data

Student B has a total of 16Student B has a total of 16

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4

d 123 7 5 6 8

e 92 5 6 3 3

f 75 4 4 4 2

g 105 5 6 4 3

Baseline Data

Student C has a total of 19Student C has a total of 19

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8

e 92 5 6 3 3

f 75 4 4 4 2

g 105 5 6 4 3

Baseline Data

And we do the same for all the other studentsAnd we do the same for all the other students

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8 26

e 92 5 6 3 3 17

f 75 4 4 4 2 14

g 105 5 6 4 3 18

Baseline Data

This gives us our Achieved DataThis gives us our Achieved Data

Reading Maths English RE Science Total

Score Score

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8 26

e 92 5 6 3 3 17

f 75 4 4 4 2 14

g 105 5 6 4 3 18

Baseline Data

Achieved Data

We can now calculate the average mark each student achieved

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average

Score Score Mark

A 112 5 6 5 4 20

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8 26

e 92 5 6 3 3 17

f 75 4 4 4 2 14

g 105 5 6 4 3 18

Baseline Data

Student A achieved 20 marks over the 4 subjects which gives an average of 5 (Grade C)

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average

Score Score Mark

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8 26

e 92 5 6 3 3 17

f 75 4 4 4 2 14

g 105 5 6 4 3 18

Baseline Data

Student B achieved 16 marks over the 4 subjects which gives an average of 4 (Grade D)

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average

Score Score Mark

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19

d 123 7 5 6 8 26

e 92 5 6 3 3 17

f 75 4 4 4 2 14

g 105 5 6 4 3 18

Baseline Data

And we do the same for all the other students

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average

Score Score Mark

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

If we compare each students average performance in the 4 subjects with their performance in Maths

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

If we compare each students average performance in the 4 subjects with their performance in Maths

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

Then student A has a Maths score of 5 and an average of 5 so there is no difference

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

Then student A has a Maths score of 5 and an average of 5 so there is no difference (Residual = 0)

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

Student B has a Maths score of 3 and an average of 4 so his Maths score is 1 grade below

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

Student B has a Maths score of 3 and an average of 4 so his Maths score is 1 grade below (Residual = -1)

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4 -1

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5

Baseline Data

We continue this process for all the students

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4 -1

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8 0.2

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5 0.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3 0.7

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5 0.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5 0.5

Baseline Data

We have 7 individual residuals for Maths

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4 -1

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8 0.2

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5 0.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3 0.7

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5 0.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5 0.5

Baseline Data

The total of these residuals is 1

0 + -1 + 0.2 + 0.5 + 0.7 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 1

Reading Maths English RE Science Total Average Maths

Score Score Mark Residual

A 112 5 6 5 4 20 5 0

B 86 3 5 5 3 16 4 -1

C 97 5 6 4 4 19 4.8 0.2

d 123 7 5 6 8 26 6.5 0.5

e 92 5 6 3 3 17 4.3 0.7

f 75 4 4 4 2 14 3.5 0.5

g 105 5 6 4 3 18 4.5 0.5

Baseline Data

What Does This Mean?

On average every student achieves 1/7 = 0.14 of a grade higher in Maths than they do in their other subjects.

Although this does not sound very much, if you had a year 11 with 175 students this would correspond to an extra 25 grades which is significant in itself and reflects a strong department.

But at best it could mean 25 students gaining a C in Maths compared to a D in their other subjects - This could make the Maths A* - C result 14% higher than other departments.

Subject A

Average Residual = 0.5

Percentage of C+ Grades = 40%

Subject B

Average Residual

= -0.5

Percentage of C+ Grades = 90%

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level

876543

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total

8 67 246 355 204 183 2

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 246 355 204 183 2

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 26 355 204 183 2

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 26 35 0 0 0 1 3 15 14 2 05 20 1 0 0 5 7 6 1 0 04 18 1 1 5 7 3 1 0 0 03 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 26 35 0 0 0 1 3 15 14 2 05 20 1 0 0 5 7 6 1 0 04 18 1 1 5 7 3 1 0 0 03 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Projected GCSE Grades

2 2 6 13 13 24 24 16 4

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 26 35 0 0 0 1 3 15 14 2 05 20 1 0 0 5 7 6 1 0 04 18 1 1 5 7 3 1 0 0 03 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

A* - C

Projected GCSE Grades

2 2 6 13 13 24 24 16 4 65%

Chance Tables

Maths SATs Level Total U G F E D C B A A*

8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 37 24 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 11 26 35 0 0 0 1 3 15 14 2 05 20 1 0 0 5 7 6 1 0 04 18 1 1 5 7 3 1 0 0 03 2 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

A* - C

Projected GCSE Grades

2 2 6 13 13 24 24 16 5 65%

Actual 1 3 6 17 9 31 17 12 7 65%

Beware!

• If you achieve above expectations based on the chance tables say from KS3 to GCSE as on previous slide it could mean:

• The department is performing well at KS4

• The department is underperforming at KS3

• You need to use many indicators if you want an accurate picture although you might pick the one that shows you in the best light when promoting your department!

Looking at pupil progression

SetF Student A 1M Student B 1M Student C 1M Student D 1F Student E 1F Student F 1F Student G 2

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result

Set LevelF Student A 1 7M Student B 1 7M Student C 1 7M Student D 1 7F Student E 1 6F Student F 1 6F Student G 2 4

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result

Set Level RankF Student A 1 7 1M Student B 1 7 2M Student C 1 7 3M Student D 1 7 4F Student E 1 6 17F Student F 1 6 35F Student G 2 4 70

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result SATs Result

Set Level Rank LevelF Student A 1 7 1 7M Student B 1 7 2 7M Student C 1 7 3 7M Student D 1 7 4 7F Student E 1 6 17 6F Student F 1 6 35 7F Student G 2 4 70 6

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result SATs Result

Set Level Rank Level RankF Student A 1 7 1 7 5M Student B 1 7 2 7 4M Student C 1 7 3 7 3M Student D 1 7 4 7 11F Student E 1 6 17 6 41F Student F 1 6 35 7 13F Student G 2 4 70 6 26

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result SATs Result Positive is ImprovedLevel

Set Level Rank Level Rank ChangeF Student A 1 7 1 7 5 0M Student B 1 7 2 7 4 0M Student C 1 7 3 7 3 0M Student D 1 7 4 7 11 0F Student E 1 6 17 6 41 0F Student F 1 6 35 7 13 1F Student G 2 4 70 6 26 2

Looking at pupil progression

9 Exam Result SATs Result Positive is ImprovedLevel Rank

Set Level Rank Level Rank Change ChangeF Student A 1 7 1 7 5 0 -4M Student B 1 7 2 7 4 0 -2M Student C 1 7 3 7 3 0 0M Student D 1 7 4 7 11 0 -7F Student E 1 6 17 6 41 0 -24F Student F 1 6 35 7 13 1 22F Student G 2 4 70 6 26 2 44

Making Projections

• Looking at the Year 9 SATs results for 2002/3 it can been seen that 62% achieved a level 6 or above.

• All of these students were in the top 68% based on the Year 9 exam.

• 1 person improved from a level 4 to a level 6. • 78% of those achieving a level 5 in the Year 9

exam achieved a level 6 in the SATs.• 80% achieved level 5+ in the SATs exam.

Making Projections

• This means that to get 63% achieving level 6+ (which is 61 students) all but 2 of those who got a level 5 in the year 9 exam must get a level 6 which is a 91% success rate. This compares with last years figure of 78%.

• It will not be easy to maintain the 62/63% level 6+ pass rate achieved over the last 2 years but it is a possibility.

Analysing Data.

Thank you for listening.

M.Greenaway.