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= NASATechnical
-'J 3137
August 1991
/ i_ •
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_IT_ RA_IATIOH
SOLAR PARTICL _
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Analyses of RisksAssociated With
RadiatiOn ExposureFrom Past MajorSolar Particle Event, s
A':ALY_'_S :-'F _I_K3 A<_'r,- T-:,,,C :AT _..0
EXPOSURe FROM PAST MAJOR
_VFNTS (t'_ASA) 37 p C_CL O3B
Mark D. Weyland,
William Atwell,
Francis A. Cucinotta,
John W. Wilson,
and Alva C. Hardy
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https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910021747 2020-04-06T04:30:37+00:00Z
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Errata
NASA Technical Paper 3137
August 1991
Analyses of Risks Associated With Radiation
Exposure From Past Major Solar Particle Events
Weyland, M.D.; Atwell, W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Wilson, J.W.; Hardy, A.C.
In the computation of excess cancers and mortalities in this paper, a conversion to SI units of twovariables was inadvertently omitted. The correction lowered the risks by varying degrees ofmagnitude. The corrected results are given in the following tables. The secondary particle
contribution has been lowered by a factor of 2 for the total risk at 10 g/cm 2. The conclusionsremain the same with the exception of specific referenced numerical risks which have beencorrected herein. The authors apologize for these errors and regret any inconvenience thisomission may have caused.
NASATechnical
Paper3137
1991
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
Office of Management
Scientific and Technical
Information Program
Analyses of RisksAssociated With
Radiation Exposure
From Past MajorSolar Particle Events
Mark D. Weyland
and William Atwell
Rockwell International
Houston, Texas
Francis A. Cucinotta
and John W. Wilson
Langley Research Center
Hampton, Virginia
Alva C. Hardy
Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center
Houston, Texas
ABSTRACT
This study investigated radiation exposures and cancer induction/mortality risks for several
major solar particle events (SPE's). The SPE's included in this study are: February 1956,
November 1960, August 1972, October 1989, and the September, August, and October 1989
events combined. The three 1989 events were treated as one since all three could affect a single
hmar or Mars mission. A baryon transport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum
and tissue shield materials. This study utilized a free space environment for all calculations.
Results show the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rein was surpassed by all five
events using 10 g/cm 2 of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm of tissue,
while this study utilized a more detailed shield distribution of the blood forming organs. A
comparison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribution
shows the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit of 50 rein was
exceeded by the August 1972, October 1989, and the three combined 1989 events with 5 g/cm 2 of
shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17 % at 1 g/cm 2 and 0.5 to 1.1% behind
10 g/cm 2 of shielding for the five events. These ranges correspond to those for a 45 year old male.
It is shown that secondary particles comprise about 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm 2 of shielding.
Utilizing a computerized Space Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft
configuration in free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO dose
limit.
1. INTRODUCTION
Theprimaryradiationconcernsduringmannedspaceflightsarethetrappedradiationbelts
surroundingtheearth,galacticcosmicrays(GCR),andsolarparticleevents(SPE).While trapped
radiationsarelimited in spatialextentandcanlargelybeavoided,thelow intensityGCR'sare
alwayspresentandtheSPE'sarepotentiallyof highintensityalthoughlimited in timeandspatially
unavoidableexceptdeepwithin theEarth'smagneticfield. A largeSPEduringalunaror Mars
mission,wherethespacecraftisnotprotectedbytheEarth'sgeomagneticfield, couldhaveacuteas
well aschronicadversehealtheffectsonimproperlyshieldedcrewmembers(Townsendet al.,
1990).Theeffectsof protons,theprimaryradiationassociatedwith anSPE,on thebodyare
subjecttouncertaintesdueto thehighLinearEnergyTransfer(LET) secondaryparticlesproduced
from targetfragmentation(Cucinotta,1991).
Thisstudyinvestigatedhumanorganradiationexposuresbehinddifferentdepthsof
aluminumfor somepastmajorSPE'sin freespace.Thedosesusedhereinwerederivedexplicitly
from theSPE'sandexcludetheGCRcontributionwhichwouldbepresentandsignificanton long
durationexploratoryclassmissions.Theskin,eye,andBFOdoseswerecomparedwith thelimits
currentlyusedbyNASA. Cancerriskswereattainedfor eachorganandsummedto giveatotal
risk of excesscancersandcancermortalitiesfrom theseSPE's.To illustratetheimportanceof
secondaryparticles,riskswerecalculatedandshownfor boththeprimaryandsecondaryparticles
for oneof theflares.Dosesandriskswerealsoobtainedfor two dosimeterlocationsaboardthe
currentSpaceShuttle,givingacomplexandrealisticexampledifferingfrom simpleslab
geometries.This studycouldbeusedasbaselinedatain determiningasafeandreasonable
thicknessof shieldingfor amannedspaceexplorationvehicleandanassociated"stomashelter."
2. BACKGROUND
Theenergeticchargedparticlesoriginatingfromasolarparticleeventwerepropagated
throughaluminumandtissueshieldingmaterialusingthecodeBRYNTRN (Wilson,et al.,1989).
BRYNTRN isabaryontransportmodelwhichutilizestheBoltzmannequationin astraightahead
2
approximation.ThetransportcodeBRYNTRNwaslinked to theComputerizedAnatomicalMan
(CAM) model(Billings, Yucker,1973)in ordertoobtainorgandosesbehindvariousthicknesses
of aluminumshielding.TheCAM modelwasdevelopedin theearly1970's,andwith updates
remainsasoneof thebestgeometricalandanthropomorphicallycorrectcomputermodelsavailable.
It is basedon50thpercentilestandingU.S.Air Forceman.
Riskswereassignedto eachorganbasedmostlyondatacollectedin areportto theNational
Institutesof Health(NIH) concerningradioepidemiologicaltables(Rall,etal., 1985).Therisk
coefficientsusedbytheNIH workinggroupcouldhavesubstantialuncertaintiesassociatedwith
theage-andsex-specificvalues(NCRP98, 1989).Onereasonfor thisuncertaintystemsfrom
transformingmortality ratesto incidenceratesbasedonvital statisticsdata(NCRP98, 1989).The
linearquadratic(L-Q) equationusedin theNationalCouncilonRadiationProtectionand
MeasurementsreportNo.98 (NCRP98),wasderivedby scalingthelinearBiologicalEffectsof
IonizingRadiation(BEIR)coefficients(NAS/ NRC, 1980) by a factor related to low or high
doses at low dose rates. The NCRP 98 committee defines acute and protracted doses using 5
rad/day as a dividing line. A dose received at a rate greater than 5 rad/day is considered acute
whereas less than 5 rad/day is a protracted dose. All the doses discussed in this study fall under
the acute situation. This factor is termed the Dose Rate Reduction Factor (DRRF) (NCRP 98,
1989). The L-Q coefficient for the acute situation is:
Risk coefficient = BEIR coefficient x D [1+1._6 ] Eq. 2.1(DRRF)
where: D = the acute dose in gray (Gy),
1.16 Gy = the assumed cross-over dose point for which the dose-squared contribution
equals the linear contribution (Rall et al., 1985).
The assumed DRRF is 2.5 according to the NCRP 98. These coefficients were then used to
express predicted lifetime risks and mortalities from cancer among 1000 persons, both age- and
sex-specific. An L-Q relationship was used for all organs excluding the thyroid, where a linear
relationship exists. The risks for varying acute organ doses could be obtained from the NCRP 98
3
tableswith thefollowing equation:
Eq. 2.2
where: Dn= thenewdose
En= excesscancersfor thenewdose
Dr = doseusedin NCRP98 tables
ET= specificcancerexcessassociatedwith doseD,r.
Thelifetimeradiationriskscomputedin thisreportwererepresentativeof cancersitesin whichthe
NIH Working Groupprovidedrisk coefficients(Rall, etal., 1985)andfor "other" cancers.It has
beenshownthatmostcancerscanbecausedbyradiation;however,thereis little ornoevidenceof
radiationcausingchroniclymphocytic(CL) leukemia(NCRP98,1989).Theleukemiarisksgiven
hereindonot includethis typeof malignancyandwill bedesignatedasthe"sumof non-CL
leukemia." Oneexcesscancerpermillion person-year-tadwasassignedfor"other" sitesby the
BEIR committeeandcoefficientswerethencomputedby assumingthemto beproportionalto
thosefor deathsfrom all cancers,exceptleukemia,in theatomicbombsurvivorsof bothsexes
combined(NCRP98, 1989).Theorgansof referenceusedin the"other" sitecategoryaretumors
of theoralcavity, rectum,gallbladder,uterinecorpus,uterinecervix,ovary,brain,bone,
connectivetissue,prostateandtestis,andmelanoma,lymphoma,andHodgkin's disease(NCRP
98, 1989).
Thisstudyuseddoseequivalentnumbersin placeof absorbeddosestoaccountfor thehigher
LET valuesassociatedwith spaceradiation. It shouldbenotedthattherisksshownin thisstudy
aresubjectto significantuncertaintydueto themanyassumptionsusedincomputingfinal values.
Theserisksarebestestimatesusingavailabledataandmethodsfor risk projections.
4
3. PROCEDURE
ThecodeBRYNTRN wasrun for six pastsignificantSPE'sincludingFebruary1956,
November1960,August1972,August1989,September1989,andOctober 1989. The 1989
events were combined for one case since all three SPE's could have affected a single lunar or Mars
mission. The October 1989 flare was also used singularly because of its size. The code was
modified to transport SPE particles through seven different depths of aluminum and 16 different
thicknesses of tissue (H20 in the code). BRYNTRN was set up such that the particles were
transported through the 16 depths of tissue following the propagation through each thickness of
aluminum. Organ doses were interpolated using these data in conjunction with organ shield
distributions from the CAM model. The shield distributions are obtained by selecting a dose point
in the organ and ray tracing isotropically to outside the body. These organ doses could then be
applied to equation 2.2 to obtain organ-, age-, and sex-specific risks. A short code, RISK, was
written to accomplish this task. To show the contribution of secondary particles, the output of
BRYNTRN was modified to give doses from both secondary and primary particles. Following
this, the same procedure described above was followed to obtain risks. This was done only for the
August 1972 flare. To show organ doses and risks in a situation other than slab geometries, two
dosimeter locations (DLOC) on the current Space Shuttle were chosen, historically the points with
the highest and lowest dose readouts, and put into free space for the August 1972 flare. These
results were obtained by interpolating the BRYNTRN output twice, first through the Shuttle using
its shield distribution model, and then through the body. Risks were then found following the
methodology described above.
4. RESULTS
Selected organ doses and dose equivalents vs. thickness of aluminum shielding are
shown in figures 1 - 10. These plots give a good indication of where additional shielding produces
only a small decrease in doses. A comparison of the BFO, skin, and eye doses with the limits is
given in tables 1 - 5. One should recall that all the doses and risks shown herein are representative
5
of freespace,outsidetheearth'smagnetosphere.As canbeseen,theBFO limit isexceededuntil
10g/cm2,table1,for theAugust1972flare,andthisdoesnot takeinto accounttheGCR
contribution.Tables6 - 25showtheorgan-,age-,andsex-specificcancerandmortality risksfor
thedifferentflaresbehind1and10g/cm2of A1shielding. It shouldbenotedthatdueto thelackof
asuitablefemalemodelatthetimethisstudywasconducted,therisk from thebreastswasleft out
for thefemale,This is significantin thatthebreastsgenerallyrepresentthegreatestsingleorgan
cancerrisk to thefemaleandtheexposureisexpectedto berelativelyhigh (Shaversetal., 1991).
Uponcompletionof afemalemodel,currentlybeingworkedon,riskswill becalculatedand
documented.Therisk contributionfrom secondaryparticlescanbeseenin tables26 - 29and
averageapproximately33%of thetotalrisk at 10g/cm2of AI shielding.Tables30 - 34showthe
dosesandassociatedrisksatdosimeterlocations(DLOC)#1and#2on thecurrentSpaceShuttlein
freespacefor theAugust1972event.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Thisstudyinvestigatedorgandosesfrommanydifferentperspectives.ThecurrentNASA limits
werecomparedwith theBFO,skin,andeyecomputeddoses.It canbeseenthat for eachof the
SPE's,theBFOdosesexceededthecurrent30-daylimit of 25reinusing10g/cm2of aluminum
shielding. It shouldbestatedthatthelimits for SpaceExplorationInitiative (SEI)classmissions
couldvaryfrom currentlimits dependingonothernominalrisksassociatedwith theseflightsand
thefeasibilityof stayingbelowapredetermineddoselimit. Theannuallimit, 50rem,was
surpassedbytheAugust1972,October1989,andthethree1989eventscombinedbehind5 g/cm2
of aluminum.Graphsof dosesanddoseequivalentsfor otherorgansvs.shieldthicknessare
shownin figures1- 10. Thesefiguresgive arepresentationof wheremoreshieldingyields small
changesin dosefor eachevent.This appearsto bebetween10and15g/cm2 onaveragefor the
flaresusedin thisstudy. Tables6 - 25displayage-andsex-specificrisksbasedon theorgan
dosesfrom eachSPE.Theseriskswerecalculatedbehind1and10g/cm2of shielding. Therisks
aredisplayedasexcesscancersandcancermortalitiesper1000people.Forthethreecombined
6
1989eventsbehind10g/cm2of shielding,a25yearold male would have approximately a 2.5%
risk of obtaining a fatal cancer. This doesn't take into account the GCR contribution which would
add to this risk. To show the contribution of secondary particles, tables 26 - 29 show excess
cancers and cancer morialities for a 25 year old male due to both primary protons and secondary
particles. The secondary particle contribution is approximately 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm 2.
The last set of tables, 30 - 34, show organ doses and their respective risks at two representative
dosimeter locations on the current Space Shuttle for the August 1972 event in free space. It can be
seen that the annual limit of 50 rem for the BFO was surpassed at DLOC #2 and was approached at
DLOC #1. It should be noted that these two dosimeter locations are historically the highest (#2)
and lowest (#1) dose points recorded during flights. The measured crewmember exposures have
historically averaged approximately 110% of the DLOC #1 dose.
The flare doses behind varying depths of A1 obtained with BRYNTRN correlated well with
previously published values. As a reminder, these doses and risks do not include the additional
exposure from GCR's which would be significant on an SEI mission. The results of this study
give a detailed assessment of risks associated with major SPE's. The question of how much
shielding is required for a "storm shelter" will be based on an amount equal to or greater than that
shielding required to keep all doses at or below a level such that the mortality risk to the
crewmembers stays below a predetermined value (e.g., 3-5%). The total radiation risk would
require evaluations of contributions from the GCR as well as any onboard sources such as nuclear
power. This does not exclude the As Low As is Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle,
however; and it should be stressed that radiation limits of any kind, risk, or dose are established as
maximums and not quotas.
REFERENCES
Wilson, JohnW.; Townsend,LawrenceW.; Nealy,JohnE.; Chun,SangY.; Hong,B.S.; Buck,
WarrenW.; Lamkin, S.L.;Ganapol,BarryD.; Khan,Ferdous;andCucinotta,FrancisA.:
BRYNTRN: A Baryon Transport Model. NASA TP-2887, 1989.
National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP): Guidance on Radiation
Received in Space Activities. NCRP Report No. 98; Bethesda, MD, 1989.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services - National Institutes of Health (NIH): Report of
the National Institutes of Health Ad Hoc Working Group to Develop RadioepidemiologicaI Tables.
NIH Publication No. 85-2748; U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1985.
National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council (NAS/NRC): Assigned Share for
Radiation as a Cause of Cancer: Review of Assumptions and Methods for Radioepidemiologic
Tables. NAS/NRC (1984); National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1984.
Cucinotta, Francis A.; Katz, Robert; Wilson, John W.; Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy;
Hajnal, Ferenc: Biological Effectiveness of High Energy Protons: Target Fragmentation.
Submitted to Radiation Research; Reston, VA., 1991.
Shavers, Mark; Poston, John W.; Atwell, William; Hardy, Alva C.; Wilson, John W.: A
Preliminary Calculation of Solar Cosmic Ray Dose to the Female Breast in Space Missions.
Proposed NASA TM, 1991.
Townsend, Lawrence W.; Wilson, John W.; Shinn, Judy L.; Curtis, S.B.: Human Exposure to
Large Solar Particle Events in Space. Presented to NATO, 1990.
Townsend, Lawrence W.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W; Atwell, William: Large Solar Flare
Radiation Shielding Requirements for Manned Interplanetary Missions. Journal of Spacecraft and
8
Rockets; 26-2 pp.126-128; Washington, D.C. 1989.
Townsend, Lawrence W.; Shinn, Judy L.; Wilson, John W.: Interplanetary Crew Exposure
Estimates for the August 1972 and October 1989 Solar Particle Events. Radiation Research (In
Press); Reston, VA., 1991.
9
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19
Table 1 DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE AUGUST 1972 SPE IN FREE SPACE
ORGAN
BFOSKINEYE
ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS, g/cm**2
183.210951461
3
113.5347.6
617.0
5
74.80
194.4336.3
10 2O
30.86 7.71363.67 13.37
105.3 19.83
30 DAY LIMIT
(REM)25
150
100
ANNUAL LIMIT
(REM)50
3002O0
Table 2
ORGAN
BFO
SKINEYE
DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE FEBRUARY 1956 SPE IN FREE SPACE
ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,
47.34
264.2207.3
3
39.73
91.1998.60
35.3961.60
65.59
g/cm**210 20
29.62 24.10
37.51 26.8639.75 28.07
30 DAY LIMIT
(REM)25
150100
ANNUAL LIMIT
(REM)50
300
20O
Table 3
ORGAN
BFO
SKINEYE
DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE NOVEMBER 1960 SPE IN FREE SPACE
ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,1 3
69.78 54.444368 234.7
689.1 177.8
5
45.48
95.60101.9
g/cm**210 20
31.86 17.9145.53 23.2654.85 27.37
30 DAY LIMIT
(REM)25
150
100
ANNUAL LIMIT
(REM)50
3002O0
Table 4 DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE OCTOBER 1989 SPE IN FREE SPACE
ORGAN
BFOSKIN
EYE
ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS,
110.4
1312997.O
g/cm**23
73.29243.6
352.1
5
52.76
129.0
190.8
10 20
27.70 10.8449.83 16.26
70.51 2O.89
30 DAY LIMIT
(REM)25150
100
ANNUAL LIMIT
(REM)50
30020O
Table 5
ORGAN
BFO
SKINEYE
DOSE EQUIVALENTS (REM) FROM THE AUGUST, SEPTEMBER,& OCTOBER 1989 SPE'S IN FREE SPACE
ALUMINUM SHIELD THICKNESS, g/cm**21 3
171.3
22871725
112.1
383.3546.6
80.15198.8
297.2
10 20
4i .92 16.54
75.38 24.69107.0 31.65
i30 DAY LIMIT
(REM)25
150100
ANNUAL LIMIT
(REM)50
300200
20
Table 6FEBRUARY1956SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXPM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
LUNG3.8122.5671.8491.3593.0202.4912.2651.925
SUM(NON-CL);LEUKEMIA
1.4111.5341.6571.6570.9211.0431.2891.411
ESOPHAGUSO.39O0.1670.1110.1670.4460.2230.167O.223
KIDNEY&
STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS2.O431.0410.6550.6172.8911.6961.0410.887
2.1810.9910.5450.5452.5781.289O.7930.744
ALLOTHER
1.6660.5430.2540.1451.9560.8330.3980.217
THYROID
i .228
0.5750.345
0.3841.880
0.8060.4990.499
TOTALBLADDER
3.0021.647
1.0650.7753.5842.131
1.4531.162
2.867
1.8641.2340.7338.872
6.4294.6803.137
CANCERS4.5412.0251.1050.859
2.8841.6571.2271.227
CANCERS
23.1412.968.8227.240
29.0318.6013.8111.43
Table 7
FEBRUARY 1956 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE @ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACHM 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
MM
MMFFFF
25
35455525
3545
55
3.020
2.0381.47 o1.057
2.1511.812
1.6231.397
0.3340.167
0.1110.111
0.3340.1670.1110.167
1.426
0.732O.463O.4632.1591.2720.7710.655
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROIDLEUKEMIA BLADDER
0.9690.581
3.3870.2911.2590.7750.4840.387
1.1051.2271.35O1.350O.675
0.7980.9211.043
0.4630.296
0.1930.1160.8100.591O.4240.283
COLON LIVER1.140
O.5450.2970.2971.2890.6440.397
0.347
ALL OTHERCANCERS
1.7800.798
0.4300.3681.1660.6750.4910.491
1.5940.5430.2540.1451.9200.7970.362
0.181
PANCREAS1.15i0.5370.3450.3451.7650.7670.4600.460
TOTAL
MORTALITIES12.98
7.4665.3024.54313.538.2996.O455.412
21
Table 8FEBRUARY1956SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm°*2OFAI
:SEX,AGE@EXP, LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH C_,OLC_ LIVER PANCREAS--M 25
M 35
M 45M 55
F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
2.175
1.4651 .O55
0.7751.723
1.4211.2921 .O98
0.229
0.0980.0650.098
0.2620.1310.0980.131
1.547
0.7880.496
0.4672.190
1.2850.7880.671
1.426
O.6480.3570.3571.685
0.843
0.5190.486
1.308
0.426
0.1990.1141.535
0.6540.3130.171
0.933
0.4370.262
0.2911.428
0.6120.3790.379
-SUM(NON-CL)'KIDNEY& THYROID All OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
o8552.1371.172
0.7580.5522.551
1.5171.0340.827
2.533
1.1300.6160.4791.609
0.9240.6850.685
0.7870.8560.924
0.9240.5130.5820.7190.787
0.556O.3680.219
2.6451.9171.3950.935
13.93
7.5765.1024.276
16.149.8857.2226.171
Table 9FEBRUARY 1956 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE @ E.XP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS0.874M 25
M 35M 45
M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
MM
MMFFF
25
3545
5525354555
1.7231.163O.84O
O.6O31.2281 .O34
0.9260.797
0.1960.098
0.0650.0650.196
0.0980.0650.098
1.o8o0.5550..q_,
0.3501.635
0.9630.5840.496
0.7450.357
0.1940.194
0.8430.4210.259
0.227
1.25t
O.4260.1990.1141.5070.625
0.2840.142
0.408
0.2620.2621.3410.583
0.350O.350
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER . CANCERS MORTALITIES
0.616
0.6850.7530.753
0.3770.4450.513
0.582
0.6890.4140.2760.2070.8960.5520.345
0.276
0.1380.088O.O580.0350.2410.1760.1270.084
0.9930.4450.2400.205O.6500.3770.2740.274
8.3064.6383.2372.7898.9135.2743.7273.326
22
Table 10NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
6.5584.4153.1822.3385.1954.2863.8963.312
0.6180.2650.1760.2650.7060.3530.265O.353
2.5851.3170.8290.7803.6582.1461.3171.122
COLON3.3191.5090.8300.8303.9231.9611.2071.132
1.9800.6460.3010.1722.3240.9900.4730.258
1.5430.7230.4340.4822.3621.0120.6270.627
SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
3.9612.1721.4051.0224.7272.8111.9171.533
6.1163.9772.6331.56318.9213.719.9826.692
7.6143.3951.8521.4404.8362.7782.0582.058
2.3662.5722.7782.7781.5431.7492.1612.366
36.6620.9914.4211.6748°2031.8023.9019.45
Table 11NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm'*2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXPM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
LUNG5.1953.5062.5321.8183.7013.1172.7922.4O3
ESOPHAGUS0.5290,2650.1760.1760.5290.2650.1760.265
STOMACH1.8050.9270.5850.5852.7321.6100.9760.829
COL£_1.735O.83OO.4530.4531.9610.9810.6030.528
LIVER PANCREAS1.8940.6460.3010.1722.2810.9470.4300.215
1.4460.6750.4340.4342.2180.9640.5780.578
SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
1.8522.0582.2642.2641.1321.3381.5431.749
1,2780.7670.5110.3831.6611.0220.6390.511
0.9870.6310.4110.2471.7281.2620.9050.603
2.9841.3380.7200.6171.9551.1320.8230.823
19.7111.648.3837.15019.9012.649.467
8.505
23
Table 12NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm**2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXP UJNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACHM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
2.5591.723t .2410.9122.0271.6721.5201,292
0.2400.1030.0690,1030.2750.1370.1030.137
1.3070.6660.419O.3941.8491.0850.6660.567
LIVER PANCREAS1.4530.6610.3630.3631.7170.8590.5280.495
1.0420.3400.1590.0911.2230.5210.2490.136
0.7820.3670.2200.2451.1980.5130.3180.318
SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
0.8600.9351,0091,0090.5610.6360.7850.860
1.7970.9850.6380.4642.1441.2750.8690.696
1.0840.7O50.4660.2773.3532.4291.7691.186
2.7671.234O.6730.5231.7571.0090.7480.748
13.897.7175.2584.38116.1010.147.5556.434
Table 13NOVEMBER1960SPE,EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm**2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVERM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
2.0271.3680.9880.7091.4441.2161.0890.937
0.2060.1030.0690.0690.2060.1030.0690.103
0.9120.4680.2960.2961,3810.8140.4930.419
0.7600.3630.1980.1980.8590.4290.2640.231
SUM(NON-CL)LEUKEMIA
0.6730.7480.8230.8230.4110.4860.5610.636
KIDNEY&BLADDER
0.5800.3480.2320.t740,7530.4640.2900.232
THYROID
0.1750.1120.0730.0440.3060.2240.1600.107
_,II-OTHERCANCERS
1.0840.4860.2620.2240.7100.4110.2990.299
0.9960.3400.1590.0911.2000.4980.2260.113
PANCREAS0.734O.3420,2200.2201.1250.4890.2930.293
TOTALMORTALITIES
8.1464.678
3.3182.8478.3965.1343.7453.371
24
Table 14AUGUST1972SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND1g/cm**2OFAI
SEX, AGE @ EXPJ LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREAS'1
M 25M 35M 45M 55
F 25F 35F 45F 55
IM 25IM 35
M 45
M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
23.9016.0911.608.520
18.9315.62
14.2012.07
2.414
1 .O340.690
1.0342.7591.379
1.0341.379
3.7981.9351.2181.147
5.375
3.1531.9351.648
9.7274.4212.4322.432
11.505.7483.5373.316
2.2020.7180.3350.191
2.5851.101O.5270.287
2.2271.0440.626
0.6963.4101.4620.905
0.905
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
7.5084.1172.664
1.9388.9625.328
3.6332.906
19.7412.838.496
5.04461.0744.2532.21
21.59
32.2014.367.8326.091
20.4511.758.702
8.702
10.0110.8811.75
11.756.5277.3979.13710.01
113.767.4347.6438.84
141.5697.19
75.8262.82
Table 15
AUGUST 1972 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE.@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH Q:DLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45
M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45
M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
18.9312.789.2296.626
13.4911.36
10.188.756
2.0691.0340.69O0.690
2.0691.034
0.6901.034
2.652
1.3620.8600.8604.013
2.3651.433
1.218
5.085
2.4321.3261.3265.748
2.8741.7691.548
2.1060.718
0.3350.1912.537
1 .O530.4790.239
2.0880.9740.626
O.6263.2011.392
0.8350.835
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
58.997.8328.7029.572
9.5724.7865.6566.5277.397
2.4221.4530.9690.727
3.1491.9381.2110.969
3.1862.0351.327
0.7975.576
4.0712.9211.947
12.625.6563.0462.611
8.2674.7863.4813.481
37.1527.9824.03
52.8436.5329.5227.42
25
Table 16AUGUST1972SPE,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEBEHIND10g/cm°*2OFAI
SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACHM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
2.3O91.5541.1200.8231.8291.5091.3721.166
SUM(NON-CL)LEUKEMIA
0.8270.8990.9710.9710.5400.6110.7550.827
0.2230.095O.0640.095O.2540.1270.0950.127
KIDNEY&BLADDER
1.0320.5660.3660.2661.2310.7320.4990.399
0.7150.3640.2290.2161.0120.5940.3640.310
THYROID'
1.8441.1990.7940.4715.7074.1363.0112.018
COLON1.1780.5360.2950.2951.3930.6960.4290.4O2
ALLOTHERCANCERS
LIVER
2.6621.1870.6470.5041.6910.9710.7190.719
0.4880.1590.0740.042O.5730.2440.1170.064
PANCREAS0.4240.1990.1190.133O.6490.2780.1720.172
TOTALCANCERS
11.706.7594.6803.816
14.889.8987.5336.205
Table 17
AUGUST 1972 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55
F 25F 35F 45
F 55
M 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45
F 55
1.8291.2340.8910.640
1.3O31.097
0.9830.846
0.1910.0950.O640.064
0.1910.0950.064
0.095
0.4990.2560.1620.1620.7550.445
0.2700.229
0.6160.295
0.1610.1610.6960.348
0.2140.187
0.4670.159
0.0740.0420.5620.2330.106
0.053
0.3980.1860.119
0.1190.6100.2650.1590.159
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
0.3330.2000.1330.1000.433
0.2660.166
0.133
0.298
0.1900.1240.0740.521
0.3800.273
0.182
1.0430.4680.2520.2160.683
0.3960.288
0.288
+
0.6470.7190.7910.791
0.3960.4680.540
0.611
6.3203.8022.771
2.3696.150
3.9943.062
2.784
26
Table 18
OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCERS PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm*°2 OF AI
"1
SEX, AGE @ EXP, LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25!M 35
M 45M 55F 25
F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35
iM 45M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
11.65
7.8455.6534.1539.2297.6146.9225.884
1.131
0.4850.3230.4851.2920.646O.485
0.646
2.700
1.3760.8660.815
3.8212.2421.3761.172
5.O76
2.3071.2691.2695.999
2.9991.8461.730
1.800
0.5870.274
0.1572.1140.9000.4310.235
1.596
0.7480.4490.4992.4441.0480.6480.648
SUM (NON-CL)LEUKEMIA
4.5624.959
5.3555.3552.9753.372
4.1654.562
KIDNEY &
BLADDER4.632
2.54O1.6441.1955.5293.287
2.2411.793
THYROID
11.72
7.6225.047
2.99636.2726.28
19.1412.83
ALL OTHERCANCERS
14.68
6.5453.5702.777
9.3225.355
3.9673.967
TOTALCANCERS
59.5535.01
24.4519.7079.0053.7541.22
33.46
Table 19
OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 1 g/cm°*2 OF AI
SEX, AGE @ EXPM 25M 35M 45
M 55F 25
F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45
M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
LUNG9.2296.2304.4993.2306.576
5.5374.9614.268
SUM (NON-CL)LEUKEMIA
3.5703.9674.3644.3642.1822.5782.975
3.372
ESOPHAGUS0.9690.4850.3230.3230.969
0.4850.3230.485
KIDNEY &BLADDER
1.494
0.8970.5980.4481.9431.1950.747
0.598
STOMACH1.8850.9680.6110.6112.853
1.6811.0190.866
THYROID
1.892
1.2O90.7890.4733.3122.4181.7351.156
COLON2.6531.2690.6920.6922.999
1.5000.9230.808
ALL OTHERCANCERS
5.7522.578
1.3881.1903.7692.1821.5871.587
LIVER1.7220.5870.2740.1572.074
0.8610.3910.196
PANCREAS1.496
0.6980.4490.4492.295
0.9980.5990.599
TOTALMORTALITIES
3O .6618.8913.9911.9428.9719.4415.2613.93
27
Table 20OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCERS PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE @ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON LIVE R PANCREAS
M 25
M 35M 45
M 55F 25
F 35F 45F 55
M 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
2.1i6
1.4241.0260.754
1.676
1.3821.2571.068
0.1990.0850.057
0.0850.228
0.1140.085
0.114
0.855
0.4360.2740.258
1.210
0.710O.4360.371
1.135
0.5160.2840.284
1.342
0.6710.4130.387
0.6400.209
0.0970.0560.752
0.3200.1530.084
0.5100.2390.143
0.1590.781
0.3350.2070,207
SUM (NON-CLi ' KIDNEY & THYROID ' ALL(_THER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
1.1770.6460.4180.304
1.4050.8350.5700.456
1.2820.833
0.5520.3283.9662.874
2.0921.402
2.338
1.0430.5690.4421.485
0.8530.632O.632
0.727
0.7900.8530.8530.474
0.5370.6630.727
10.98
6.2204.2733.523
13.328.631
6.5085.447
Table 21OCTOBER 1989 SPE, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE BEHIND 10 g/cm**2 OF AI
SEX, AGE @ EXPM 25M 35
M 45
M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
M 25M 35
M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45R5
Lute1.6761.1310.817
0.5861.194
1.0050.901
0.775
SUM (NON-CL)LEUKEMIA
0.5690.6320.695O,695
0.3480.4110.4740.537
ESOPHAGUS STOMACH
0.171O.O850.057
0.O570.1710.085
0.0570.O85
0.597
0.3O60.1940.1940.9030.532
0.3230.274
CC££_ LIVER
0.593
0.2840.1550.1550.671O.335
0.2060.181
0.6120.2090.097
0.0560.7380,3060.1390.070
PANCREAS0.4780.223
0.1430.1430.7330.319
0.1910.191
KIDNEY &
BLADDER0.3800.2280.1520.114
0.4940.3040.1900.152
THYROID
0.2070.1320.086O.052
0.3620.2640.1900.126
ALL 'OTHER
CANCERS0.9160.4110.2210.190
0.6000.3480.2530.253
TOTALMORTALITIES
6.199
3.6412.6172.2416.213
3.9102.923
2.644
28
Table 22AUG.,SEP.,BEHIND1 g/cm°*2 OF AISEX,AGE@ EXP LUNGM!MMMFFFF
2535455525354555
& OCT.1989SPE'S,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLE
ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
LIVER21.8814.7310.627.80017.3314.3013.0011.05
SUM(NON-CL)
2.1740.9320.6210.9322.4841.2420.9321.242
KIDNEY&
4.6362.3621.4871.4006.5603.8492.3622.012
THYROID
9.3374.2442.3342.33411.045.5173.3953.183
ALLOTHER
3.0290.9880.4610.2633.5561.5150.7240.395
PANCREAS2.7351.2820.7690.8554.1891.7951.1111.111
TOTALLEUKEMIA
8.9869.76810.5510.555.861
6.6428.205
8.986
BLADDER8.6384.737
3.0652.22910.316.130
4.1803.344
19.5112.688.3974.98660.3543.73
31.84
21.34
CANCERS28.9112.897.0335.470
18.3610.557.814
7.814
CANCERS109.864.6245.33
36.82140.095.27
73.5660.48
Table 23
AUG., SEP., & OCT. 1989 SPE'S, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLEBEHIND 1 g/cm**2 OF AI
LSEX,AGE @ EXP.M 25M 35M 45M 55
F 25
F 35F 45
F 55
M 25M 35M 45
M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
LUNG17.3311.708.4506.06712.35
10.409.317
8.017
ESOPHAGUS1.8630.9320.6210.621
1.8630.932
0.6210.932
STOMACH CCL£_ LIVER3.2371.662
1 .O501.050
4.8982.887
1.7491.487
4.881
2.3341 .?731.2735.517
2.7591.6981.485
2.8980.9880.4610.263
3.4901.4490.659
0.329
PANCREAS2.5641.1970.7690.7693.9321.710
1.0261.026
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
7.0337.814
8.5958.5954.2985.0795.861
6.642
2,7871.6721.115
0.8363.6232.2291.393
1.115
3.1492.0121.312
0.7875.5104.0242.886
1.924
11.335.0792.7352.3447.4234.2983.126
3.126
57.0735.3926.3822.6152.9135.7728.34
26.08
29
Table 24AUG.,SEP.,BEHIND10
& OCT.1989SPE'S,EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEg/cm**2 OF AI
SEX,AGE@EXPM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
p,
M 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
LUNG3.431
2.3101.6641.2232.7172.242
2.0381.732
ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLON
0.329
0.141O.O940.1410.3770.188
0.1410.188
LIVER
1.377
0.7010.4420.4161.9481.143
0.7010.598
1.864
0.8470.4660.4662.2031.102
0.6780.636
1.026
0.3350.1560.0891.2050.513
O.2450.134
PANCREAS0.821
0.3850.2310.2561.257
0.539O.3330.333
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
1.9441:208
1.3131.4191.4190.7880.893
1.1031.208
1.9871.090
0.7050.513
2.3721.410
0.9610.769
1.264
0.8370.497
6.0144.358
3.1732.127
3.8881. 734
0.9460.7362.4691.419
1.0511.051
17.88
f0.i26.9595.75521.3513.8110.438.776
Table 25
AUG., SEP.,BEHIND 10
SEX, AGE @M 25
M 35M 45M 55F 25
F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35
M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
& OCT. 1989 SPE'S, EXCESS CANCER MORTALITIES PER 1000 PEOPLE
g/cm**2 OF AIEXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH _ L_IVER PANCREAS
2.7171.8341.325
0.9511.9361.630
1,4611,257
0.2820.141
0.0940.0940.2820.141
0.0940.141
0.9610.4940.312
0.3121.4550.8570.520
0.442
0.9750.4660.2540.254
1.1020.5510.3390.297
0.9820.3350.156
0.0891.1820.4910.2230.112
0.7690.3590.231
0,2311.1800.5130.3080.308
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
0,9461.0511,1561,1560.5780.6830.788
0,893
0.641
0.3850.2560.1'920.8330.5130.32O0.256
0.3140.200
0.1310.078O.5490.4010.2880.192
1.524
0.6830.3680.3150.9980.5780,4200.420
10.115.948
4.2833.67310,106.3584.7614.317
30
Table 26ExcessCancersper 100025 yr. old MalesBehind1 g/cm**2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata)OrganLungColonKidney& BladderTotalCancers
PrimaryProtons2286
98
Secondaries& Recoils22216
Total24108
114
Table 27ExcessCancerMortalitiesper 100025 yr. old MalesBehind1 g/cm°*2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata)OrganLungColonKidney& BladderTotalCancers
PrimaryProtons1842
51
Secondaries& Recoils Total11
0.58
195
2.559
Table 28ExcessCancersper 100025yr. old MalesBehind10g/cm*'2of AI(Aug.72 Flare,Remdata).OrganLung
Colon
Kidney & BladderTotal Cancers
Primary Protons2.1
0.90.8
10
Secondaries & Recoils Total0.2
0.30.2
2
2.31.2
1
12
Table 29
Excess Cancer Mortalities per 1000 25 yr. old Males Behind 10 g/cm*'2 of AI
(Aug. 72 Flare, Rem data)
.OrganLungColon
Kidney & BladderTotal Cancers
Primary Protons1.7
0.5
0.3
5
Secondaries & Recoils Total
0.1
0.1
0.051
1.80.6
0.35
6
31
Table 31EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC1
SEX,AGE@EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35JF 45!F 55
5.4693.6822,6531.9494.3323.5743.2492.762
0.3820.1640.1090.1640.4360.2180.1640.218
0.9300.4740.2980.2811.3160.7720.4740.404
1.7970.8170.4490.4492.1241.0620.6530.613
0.5960.1940.0910.0520.7000.2980.1430.078
0.5500.2580.1550.1720.8420.3610.223O.223
SUM(NON-CL) KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
1.45O0,7950.5140.3741.7301.0290.7010,561
4.2872.7871.8451.09613.269.6116.9974,69O
4.7532.1201.1560.8993.0191.7341.2851.285
1.4771.6061.7341.7340.9641.0921.3491.477
21.6912.909.0067.17028.7319.7515.2412.31
Table 32EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC1
z
SEX, AGE,@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUS STOMACH COLCt'4 LIVERM 25M 35
M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
M 25M 35
M 45M 55F 25F 35
F 45F 55
4,3322.9242.1121.516
3.0872.599
2.3282.004
0.3270.1640.1090.1090.3270.164
0.1090.164
0,649O.333
0.2110.2110,9830.579
0.3510.298
O.9390.4490.2450.2451.062
0.5310.3270.286
0.5700.1940.0910.052
0.6870.2850.130
0.065
PANCREAS0.5150.24O0.1550.1550.790
0.3430.2060.206
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
1,8630.835
0,4500.3851.2200.707
0.5140.514
1.156
1,2851.413!.4130.707
0.835O.9641.092
O.6920.4420.288
0,1731.2110.8840.634
0.423
O.4680.281
0,1870.1400.6080.3740.234
0.187
11.517.1485,2604.39910.687,3015.796
5.238
33
PRECEDING PAGE BLANK NOT FILMED
Table 33EXCESSCANCERSPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC2
SEX,AGE@ EXP LUNG ESOPHAGUSSTOMACH COLON LIVER PANCREASM 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
M 25M 35M 45M 55F 25F 35F 45F 55
12.608.4856.1144.4929.9828.2357.4866.363
0.8930.3830.2550.3831.0200.5100.3830.510
1.8190.9270.5830.5492.5741.5100.9270.789
3.9581.7990.9900.9904.6782.3391.4391.349
1.1170.3640.1700.0971.311O.5590.2670.146
1.0710.5020.3010.3351.6400.7030.4350.435
SUM(NON-CI') KIDNEY& THYROID ALLOTHER TOTAlLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS CANCERS
3.1361.7201.1130.8093.7432.2261.5181.214
8.7075.6613.7482.22626.94t9.5214.219.527
11.435.O972.7802.1627.2594.1703.0893.089
3.5523.8614.1704.1702.3172.6263.2443.552
Table 34EXCESSCANCERMORTALITIESPER1000PEOPLEATSTSDLOC2
48.2928.8020.2316.2161.4742.4033.0026.98
SEX,[email protected] 25M 35,_._ 45M 55F 25
F 35F 45
F 55
M 25M 35M ,_5M 55F 25F 35F 45
F 55
LUNG
9.9826.7384.8663.4947.112
5.9895.3654.617
ESOPHAGUS
0.7650.3830.2550.2550.765
0.3830.2550.383
STOMACH COLON LIVER1.270
0.6520.4120.4121.9221.132
0.6860.583
2.O69
O.9900.540
0.5402.3391.1690.7200.630
1.069
0.3640.1700.097
1.287O.534O.2430.121
PANCREAS1.004
0.4690.3010.301
1.5400.6690.4020.402
,=
SUM (NON-CL) KIDNEY & THYROID ALL OTHER TOTALLEUKEMIA BLADDER CANCERS MORTALITIES
2.780
3.0893.3983.3981.6992.0082.3172.626
1.0120.6O70.405
0.3O41.3150.8090.506
0.405
1.4060.8980.5860.3512.4601.7961.2880.859
4.4792.0081.0810.9272.9351.6991.2361.236
25.8416.2012.0110.0823.3716.1913.02
11.86
F
34
Form ,_pprovedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE DUB_o o_o.-o,Bs
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}a_hefF_ Jn(t -._a_lt.l_cj "re _a_a _e__de_ _r(_ ;?mor_,_r_} _r_3 .e,, _,r_ _re ::_e_:,3n 3 _ ,_f3rmatJGn S,=md _-_e_s re_ar_it,_ _hds o_r:lem est,t_,}_e _r _t% _l_et )_lx','-'.._f "_,_:cilec_l_n _f ,nt0rma{ro n. _c _._r%] s_L],:}e_I,),_s '_r '=(3,_c_m_ "_ our_e_ ": _n _;n -_eadcl_r_e s Se r, ces, D re_0ta,'e ¢r _f3r_a_,on _._t;oms Jnd _=':,Cr_S _2 '5 .e f_fs,_n
3av_s H,_aY, SUl_e '2_4 :_r_,n _tCn , : _2_.2 4_.0_ _r¢l _c _e ]*_:e ;' _,_-_;e'_'_! -_r_cl _l_J _e_ °l{>er_c'_- Re<lu_n _ro eLt t37_4-._ !88). _Vasn,t'_le.n. _C _'_5C3
1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED
August 1991 Technical Paper4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE S. FUNDING NUMBERS
Analyses of Risks Associated With Radiation Exposure
From Past Major Solar Particle Events
6. AUTHOR(S)
Mark D. Weyland, William Atwell, Francis A. Cucinotta,
John W. Wilson, and Alva C. Hardy
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
Space Science Branch
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Johnson Space Center
Houston, Texas 770589. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Washington, D.C. 20546-001
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATIONREPORT NUMBER
S-639
10. SPONSORING / MONITORINGAGENCY REPORT NUMBER
NASA TP-3137
11.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES
Mark D. Weyland and William Atwell: Rockwell International, Houston, Texas
Francis A. Cucinotta and John W. Wilson: Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia
Alva C. Hardy: Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
Unclassified/Unlimited
Subject Category 92
12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE
13.ABSTRACT(Maxzmum200words)ThiS study investigated radiation exposures and cancerinduction/mortality risks for several major solar particle events (SPEs). The SPEsincluded in this study are February 1956, November 1960, August 1972, October 1989,and September, August, and October 1989 (combined). The three 1989 events weretreated as one since all three could affect a single lunar or Mars mission. A baryontransport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum and tissue shieldmaterials. This study used a free space environment for all calculations. Resultsshow the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rem was surpassed by all fiveevents using 10 g/cm2 of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm oftissue, while this study used a more detailed shield distribution of the BF0. A com-parison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribu-tion shows the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit
of 50 rem was exceRded by the August 1972, October 1989, and three combined 1989events with 5 g/cmL of shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17% at Ig/cm_ and 0.5 to 1.1% behind 10 g/cm2 of shielding for the five events. These rangescorrespond to those for a 45-year old male. It is shown that secondary particlescomprise about i/3 of the total risk at 10 g/cm2 of shielding. Using a computerizedSpace Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft configuration in
free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO limit.14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES
Space radiation
Solar particle eventsCancer risks17. SECURITYCLASSIFICATION
OF REPORT
Uncla_ f_ANSN 7540-01-280-5S00
18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATIONOF THIS PAGE
Uncl ass ified
19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
OF ABSTRACT
36 ¸
16. PRICE CODE
A03
20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
Uncl assi fied UL
Standard l:orm 298 (Rev 2-89)PfescrlI_N:I b_ _NSI _1[(:1 Z]g.18
298-_02
NASA-Langley, 1991