analisis laporan keuangan subramanyam

8/10/2019 analisis laporan keuangan subramanyam

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McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright 2009 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

FinancialStatement

Analysis

K R SubramanyamJ o h n J Wi ld


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Business Analysis

Evaluate Prospects Evaluate Risks

Business Decision Makers

Equity investors

Creditors

Managers

Merger and Acquisition Analysts

External Auditors

Directors

Regulators

Employees & Unions

Lawyers


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Information Sources for BusinessAnalysis

Trade reports

Regulatory filings

Economic Indicators

Industry Statistics

Financial Statements

Quantitative

Web sites

Vision/Mission Statement

Financial press

Press Releases

Chairpersons Letter

Management discussion & Analysis

Qualitative


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Types ofBusinessAnalysis

Credit Analysis Equity Analysis

Management &Control

Mergers, Acquisitions

& Divestitures

Director Oversight Regulation

External Auditing

Labor Negotiations

FinancialManagement


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Credit Analysis

TradeCreditors

Providegoods orservices

Most short-term

Usuallyimplicitinterest

Bear risk ofdefault

Non-tradeCreditors

Providemajor

financing

Most long-term

Usuallyexplicitinterest

Bear risk ofdefault


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Credit Analysis

LiquidityAbility to meet short-term obligations

Focus :

Current cash flows Make up of currentassets and liabilities

Liquidity of assets

SolvencyAbility to meet long-term obligations

Focus :

Long-term profitability Capital structure

Credit worthiness: Ability to honor credit obligations(downside risk)


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Equity Analysis

Technical analysis /

Charting Patterns in price or

volume history of astock

Predict future pricemovements

Fundamental AnalysisDetermine Intrinsic valuewithout reference toprice

Analyze and interpretkey factors

Economy

Industry

Company

Assessment of downside risk and upside potential


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ProspectiveAnalysis

AccountingAnalysis

BusinessEnvironment &

Strategy Analysis

IndustryAnalysis

StrategyAnalysis

FinancialAnalysis

Analysisof cash

flows Profitability

Analysis

RiskAnalysis

Cost of Capital Estimate Intrinsic Value

Component Processes ofBusiness Analysis


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Accounting Analysis

Comparability problems across firms and across time

Manager estimation error

Distortion problems Earnings management

Accounting Standards

AccountingRisk

Process to evaluate and adjust financialstatements to better reflect economic reality


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Prospective Analysis

Intrinsic Value

Business Environment

& Strategy Analysis

Accounting Analysis

Financial Analysis

Process to forecast future payoffs


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Dynamics of Business Activities

End of period

Beginning of period

Business Activities Time

Investing

Operating

Financing Planning

Planning Financing Investing

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Business Activities

PlanningActivities:

Goals& Objectives

Competition Pricing

Market demands Tactics

Promotion

Managerial performance

Opportunities

Projections

Distribution

Obstacles

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Business Activities

Financing

Financing activities

Owner (equity)

Nonowner (liabilities)

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Investing activities

Buying resources Selling resources

Investing = Financing

Business Activities

FinancingInvesting

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PlanningActivities Investing

Activities FinancialActivities

Operating ActivitiesRevenues and expenses from providing

goods and services

Business Activities

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Financial Statements Reflect Business Activities

Planning Investing

Current: Cash Accounts Receivable

Inventories Marketable SecuritiesNoncurrent: Land, Buildings, &

Equipment Patents Investments

Assets

Balance Sheet

Financing Current: Notes Payable Accounts Payable Salaries Payable Income Tax PayableNoncurrent: Bonds Payable Common Stock Retained Earnings

Liabilities & Equity

Balance Sheet

Statement of

Shareholders Equity

Operating Sales Cost of Goods Sold Selling Expense Administrative Expense Interest Expense Income Tax Expense

Net Income

Income statement

Cash Flow

Statement of

Cash Flows

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Financial Statements

Balance Sheet

Income Statement

Statement of ShareholdersEquity

Statement of Cash Flows

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Balance Sheet

Total Investing = Total Financing= Creditor Financing + Owner

Financing

Colgate Financing(in $billions)

$9.138 = $7.727 + $1.410

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Income Statement

Revenues Cost of goods sold = Gross ProfitGross profit Operating expenses = Operating Profit

Colgates Profitability (in $billions)

$12.238 - $5.536 = $6.701 Gross Profit

$6.701 - $4.5411 = $2.160 Operating profit

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Statement of Cash Flows

Net Cash Flows fromOperating Activities

Net Cash Flows fromInvesting Activities

Net Cash Flows fromFinancing Activities

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Additional Information (Beyond Financial Statements)

Managements Discussion & Analysis (MD&A)

Management Report

Auditor Report

Explanatory Notes to Financial Statements

Supplementary Information

Proxy Statement

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Analysis Preview

Purpose: Evaluation of consecutivefinancial statements

Output: Direction, speed, & extent of anytrend(s)

Types: Year-to-year Change Analysis Index-Number Trend Analysis

Comparative Analysis Yr2Yr1 Yr3

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Analysis Preview

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Analysis Preview

Purpose : Evaluation of internal makeupof financial statements

Evaluation of financial statementaccounts across companies

Output: Proportionate size of assets,liabilities, equity, revenues, &expenses

Common-Size Analysis

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Analysis Preview

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Analysis Preview

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Analysis Preview

Purpose : Evaluate relation between two or moreeconomically important items (onestarting point for further analysis)

Output: Mathematical expression of relationbetween two or more items

Cautions: Prior Accounting analysis is importantInterpretation is key - long vs shortterm & benchmarking

Ratio Analysis

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Analysis Preview

Purpose: Estimate intrinsic value of acompany (or stock)

Basis: Present value theory (time value ofmoney)

Valuation Valuation - an important goal of many types

of business analysis

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Analysis Preview

Debt (Bond) Valuation

Bt is the value of the bond at time t

It +n is the interest payment in period t+nF is the principal payment (usually the debt s face value)r is the investors required interest rate (yield to maturity )

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Analysis Preview

Equity Valuation

Vt is the value of an equity security at time tDt +n is the dividend in period t+nk is the cost of capitalE refers to expected dividends

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Analysis PreviewEquity Valuation - Free Cash Flow to Equity

Model

FCF t+n is the free cash flow in the period t + n [often

defined as cash flow from operations less capitalexpenditures]k is the cost of capitalE refers to an expectation

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Analysis Preview

Equity Valuation - Residual Income Model

BVt is the book value at the end of period tRi

t+nis the residual income in period t + n [defined as

net income, NI, minus a charge on beginningbook value, BV, or RI t = NI t - (k x BV t-1)]

k is the cost of capitalE refers to an expectation

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Analysis in an Efficient Market

Three assumed forms of market efficiency

Weak Form - prices reflect information inpast prices

Semi-strong - prices reflect all publicForm informationStrong Form - prices reflect all public and

private information

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Book Organization

Financial Statement Analysis

Part IIntroduction and Overview

Part IIIFinancial Analysis

Part IIAccounting Analysis

Chapter 1: Overview ofFinancial StatementAnalysis

Chapter 2: FinancialReporting andAnalysis

Chapter 3: AnalyzingFinancial Activities

Chapter 4: AnalyzingInvesting Activities

Chapter 5: AnalyzingInvesting Activities:Special topic

Chapter 6: AnalyzingOperating Activities

Chapter 7: Cash FlowAnalysis

Chapter 8: Return onInvested Capital

Chapter 9: ProfitabilityAnalysis

Chapter 10: ProspectiveAnalysis

Chapter 11: CreditAnalysis

Chapter 12: Equity

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analisis laporan keuangan subramanyam