June 9, 2010 2:46 PM Page 1

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S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada\TaxData\monthly_revenue_charts/State GF Revenues ‐ FY 2010

FY 2009Actual Period

Yr/Yr Change Through FY Actual Budgeted ActualNeeded Hereafter to

Meet Forecast

Large Revenue Sources % Month/Quarter (millions) (millions) (millions) % % %

Sales Tax $842.4 $729.8 (13.4) M-9 $561.2 $543.4 $17.7 3.3 (10.5) (21.6)Percentage Fees Collections* 655.4 639.4 (2.4) M-11 572.7 582.7 (10.0) (1.7) (4.1) 14.7Modified Business Tax 277.5 371.1 33.7 Q-3 292.7 280.3 12.4 4.4 39.6 15.4Insurance Premium Tax 238.7 222.9 (6.6) Q-3 181.8 160.8 21.0 13.1 5.6 (38.2)Live Entertainment Tax - Gaming Portion 112.4 104.7 (6.9) M-10 89.9 86.6 3.2 3.7 (3.4) (23.5)Lodging Tax n/a 92.9 n/a M-9 70.5 71.6 (1.1) (1.5) n/a n/aCigarette Tax 97.0 88.2 (9.1) M-9 65.5 65.5 (0.1) (0.1) (9.2) (8.9)Commercial Recordings 70.9 66.1 (6.8) M-10 55.1 54.0 1.2 2.1 (4.8) (15.7)Real Property Transfer Tax 65.9 47.5 (27.9) Q-3 39.5 36.0 3.5 9.7 (20.9) (49.9)Liquor Tax 37.0 38.0 2.7 M-9 28.1 27.7 0.4 1.5 4.3 (1.4)

Totals $2,397.2 $2,400.4 0.1 $1,956.9 $1,908.6 $48.3 2.5 2.7 (9.7)

*Percentage Fees Earned net of EFA 688.4 641.8 (6.8) M-11 584.2 586.7 (2.5) (0.4) (7.2) (2.6)

Yr/Yr Change

Difference

FY 2010 Year-to-DateCollectionsForecast

FY 1010

(millions) (millions)

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ILVER SAGESThe

ILVER SAGESAN OVERVIEW OF NEVADA’S ECONOMY BY THE SAGES AT THE DEPARTMENT OF ADMINISTRATION

Cumulative Difference Between Actual and Forecast

Gaming Percentage Fees Collections Sales and Use Tax Collections

S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada\TaxData\monthly_revenue_charts/Large Data by Month FY 10 (2)

FY 2009 Actual*

1 $140.5 $136.5 (2.9) $140.2 (0.3) 2.7 +/- 14.1%2 $292.5 $284.6 (2.7) $292.0 (0.2) 2.6 +/- 13.7%3 1 $590.3 $592.7 0.4 $608.3 3.1 2.6 +/- 18.0%4 $745.5 $743.8 (0.2) $756.1 1.4 1.7 +/- 15.0%5 $895.3 $890.3 (0.6) $897.4 0.2 0.8 +/- 12.7%6 2 $1,200.0 $1,203.8 0.3 $1,232.4 2.7 2.4 +/- 9.4%7 $1,325.5 $1,325.7 0.0 $1,351.7 2.0 2.0 +/- 7.5%8 $1,473.9 $1,469.9 (0.3) $1,500.3 1.8 2.1 +/- 6.7%9 3 $1,772.0 $1,778.2 0.3 $1,824.1 2.9 2.6 +/- 4.1%10 $1,942.4 $1,943.7 0.1 +/- 2.7%11 $2,089.1 $2,085.6 (0.2) +/- 2.0%12 4 $2,395.9 $2,400.4 0.2 +/- 1.1%

$2,397.2 $2,400.4 0.1*Actual Revenues are adjusted to reflect the historical average distribution. **Total includes relevant revenue enhancements.

FY 2010Forecast**

Month Quarter

Fiscal YearFY 2010Actual

Differencefrom forecast

%

Yr/YrChange

%

Year End

Millions Millions Millions95% Chance Forecast

Correct if Yr/Yr % Difference Between

Yr/YrChange

% 95% limit

Observed Change

-21%

-18%

-15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

18%

21%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Diffe

renc

e fro

mEc

onom

ic F

orum

For

ecas

t

FY 2009-10 Month

Limit using FY'04 to FY'09 data

Limit using FY'04 to FY'08 data

State Large General Fund RevenuesJanuary 2010 Economic Forum Forecast with Legislatively Approved Revenue Enhancements v Actual

FY 2009-10 Large General Fund Revenues Cumulative Year-To-Date Tracking

Positive numbers indicate actual collections ahead of forecast for the indicated fiscal year. The monthly forecasts are based upon the May 2009 Economic Forum projections with appropriate revenue enhancements, assuming a historically derived distribution for monthly collections.

S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Nevada v US/Various Ranks

USRate Rate Rank

1 = worst

Foreclosure Filings Rate Apr '10 0.3% 1.4% 1

Home Price Index 2010q1 v 2009q1 -3.1% -12.2% 2

Wage & Salary Disbursements 2009 v 2008 -4.0% -8.8% 1

Personal Income 2009 v 2008 -1.7% -4.8% 1

Employment* Apr '10 v Apr '09 -1.1% -3.5% 1

Unemployment Apr '10 v Apr '09 9.9% 13.7% 2

*Nevada employment adjusted to reflect data from quarterly reports from employers to DETR.

Nevada

Unless we change the direction we are heading,we might end up where we are going. ChineseProverb

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Other Large Revenue Collections

Page 2 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM

The Silver Sage

Statewide Sales and Use TaxTaxable Sales by IndustryYearOverYearChange

Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank

March 2009 (18.6) 6.1 7 (31.6) 4.9 8 (13.2) 3.7 11 (5.7) 3.5 12 (22.6) 3.9 10April 2009 (10.1) 6.6 7 (29.1) 5.1 8 (6.0) 4.7 9 (2.6) 4.3 12 (24.8) 4.7 10May 2009 (15.3) 6.7 7 (24.9) 4.9 8 (11.9) 4.9 9 (4.7) 4.6 11 (23.6) 4.6 10

June 2009 (15.8) 6.7 7 (29.4) 5.1 8 (1.1) 4.7 9 0.6 4.3 12 (25.6) 4.4 10July 2009 (9.7) 6.7 7 (22.4) 5.4 8 (20.0) 4.6 9 (3.2) 4.6 10 (24.9) 4.5 11

August 2009 (14.0) 7.2 7 (37.3) 4.6 9 (7.6) 5.0 8 (4.5) 4.3 10 (31.7) 3.8 12September 2009 (7.9) 7.5 7 (22.0) 5.2 8 (2.4) 4.8 9 (2.0) 4.0 12 (29.6) 4.0 11

October 2009 4.2 7.2 7 (25.0) 5.1 9 (0.1) 5.2 8 (0.4) 4.1 11 (28.7) 4.1 10November 2009 2.7 8.2 5 (12.1) 5.0 8 (1.4) 4.5 9 (7.1) 4.2 10 (19.7) 3.7 11December 2009 4.2 9.3 5 4.4 5.7 8 5.9 3.8 11 (0.3) 4.7 9 (16.7) 2.9 13

January 2010 5.0 7.0 7 (22.4) 5.1 9 14.0 5.3 8 (4.8) 4.1 10 (22.2) 3.6 11February 2010 9.8 7.6 6 (26.6) 3.9 10 28.1 5.3 8 (2.1) 4.1 9 (10.7) 3.6 11

March 2010 15.6 7.6 7 (4.4) 5.1 9 26.6 5.1 8 0.1 3.8 11 (8.1) 3.9 10

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores Manufacturing Accommodation Food & Beverage Stores

Building Material & Garden Equipment& Supplies

(448) (311--339) (721) (445) (444)Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total

Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank

March 2009 (7.5) 15.3 1 (16.1) 10.2 4 (14.3) 9.4 5 (38.8) 7.7 6 29.6 14.8 2April 2009 (6.9) 18.1 1 (27.4) 9.8 3 (5.2) 9.4 4 (30.4) 8.1 6 (27.7) 8.5 5May 2009 (10.2) 18.4 1 (24.4) 9.7 4 (7.5) 10.1 3 (29.9) 9.5 5 (40.7) 7.7 6

June 2009 (9.2) 16.0 1 (15.7) 10.4 3 (11.0) 9.4 4 (26.3) 9.1 5 (36.9) 8.5 6July 2009 2.3 17.8 1 (18.9) 10.0 2 (10.8) 9.6 5 (31.7) 9.9 3 (34.5) 8.0 6

August 2009 (10.5) 17.4 1 (19.0) 10.2 3 (9.3) 9.8 4 (16.4) 11.0 2 (35.7) 8.0 6September 2009 5.5 16.8 1 (15.8) 10.7 3 (6.2) 9.3 4 (20.7) 8.4 5 (31.7) 8.3 6

October 2009 (8.9) 16.9 1 (10.0) 11.3 2 (3.2) 9.5 4 (14.1) 8.7 5 (35.8) 7.5 6November 2009 (10.0) 16.1 1 (4.8) 12.1 2 (1.5) 11.5 3 (9.3) 7.7 6 (27.0) 7.3 7December 2009 (16.5) 12.1 3 (4.0) 13.3 2 (0.7) 13.6 1 (0.4) 7.3 6 (25.1) 6.9 7

January 2010 0.1 18.4 1 (0.7) 11.6 2 0.2 9.6 4 (4.6) 9.2 5 (20.9) 7.4 6February 2010 7.4 18.4 1 (2.7) 11.8 2 2.7 10.3 4 8.2 8.9 5 (18.7) 7.6 7

March 2010 5.1 17.4 1 3.4 11.4 2 2.6 10.5 4 10.7 9.2 5 (51.4) 7.8 6

Wholesale TradeMotor Vehicle & Parts DealersGeneral Merchandise Stores

Share of Total Share of Total(441) (423--425)

Share of TotalShare of Total Share of Total

Food Services & Drinking PlacesMiscellaneous Retail& Non-Retail Stores

(722) (442, 443, 447, 451, 453, 454) (452)

Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg Yr/Yr Chg % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank % % Rank

March 2009 (41.6) 3.3 13 (30.0) 4.6 9 (33.2) 1.3 14 (40.9) 0.4 15 (19.9) 10.8 3April 2009 (10.1) 4.6 11 (32.2) 3.9 13 (11.8) 1.4 14 (26.4) 0.4 15 (15.8) 10.5 2May 2009 (10.6) 4.1 12 (52.1) 2.8 13 (25.7) 1.4 14 (28.7) 0.4 15 (16.7) 10.3 2

June 2009 (17.5) 4.3 11 (51.3) 3.7 13 (19.4) 1.5 14 (3.7) 0.4 15 (19.4) 11.4 2July 2009 (16.3) 4.0 12 (28.0) 3.8 13 (52.0) 0.9 14 (13.7) 0.4 15 (22.3) 9.9 4

August 2009 (22.5) 4.0 11 (47.5) 3.6 13 (80.6) 1.2 14 (42.5) 0.5 15 (29.1) 9.4 5September 2009 (15.5) 4.1 10 (56.7) 3.4 13 (43.0) 1.5 14 (50.5) 0.5 15 (20.0) 11.6 2

October 2009 (7.1) 4.0 12 (39.0) 3.4 13 (82.1) 1.2 14 (22.1) 0.4 15 (11.5) 11.3 3November 2009 (9.8) 3.4 12 (44.6) 3.3 13 9.6 1.7 14 (5.6) 0.4 15 (12.1) 10.9 4December 2009 (0.7) 3.9 10 (56.5) 2.3 14 195.0 3.2 12 (12.7) 0.3 15 (9.1) 10.7 4

January 2010 (6.4) 3.4 12 (57.4) 2.6 13 (0.6) 1.5 14 (694.3) 0.4 15 (11.0) 10.8 3February 2010 (7.0) 3.4 12 (57.9) 2.1 13 1.0 1.6 14 (19.2) 0.4 15 (12.0) 11.2 3

March 2010 (3.4) 3.4 12 (57.6) 2.1 13 (8.9) 1.2 14 35.9 0.5 15 (6.0) 11.0 3

(446) (236--238) (111--221) (481--493) (511--713, 811--999)

Other Services, Public Administration& Miscellaneous*Health & Personal Care Stores Construction Natural Resources & Utilities Transportation & Warehousing

Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total Share of Total

Natural Resources & Utilities2.1%

Construction

Manufacturing,Transportation &

Warehousing5.3%

4.9%

Wholesale Trade

Other Services, Public Administration

& Miscellaneous*10.8%

Wholesale Trade9.6%

Miscellaneous Retail& Non-Retail StoresF d S i & D i ki & Non Retail Stores

11.0%Food Services & Drinking

Places15.3%

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

8.7%General Merchandise StoresTransportation &

Accommodation4.8%

Building Material & Garden

General Merchandise Stores9.7%

Transportation & Warehousing

0.4%

gEquipment & Supplies

4.4%Food & Beverage Stores

4.2%Health & Personal

Care Stores3.9%

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

6.5%

Yr/Yr Chg%

March 2009 (16.5)April 2009 (17.9)May 2009 (21.1)

June 2009 (20.5)July 2009 (18.8)

August 2009 (24.1)September 2009 (17.7)

October 2009 (17.8)November 2009 (10.9)December 2009 (6.6)

January 2010 (8.1)February 2010 (4.5)

March 2010 (7.4)

Total Taxable Sales

*Miscellaneous includes Information, Financial, Insurance and Real Estate Sectors.

Average share of total

Page 3June 9, 2010 2:46 PM

The Silver Sage

Housing Bubble; Financial Crisis

Dot-Com bubble; 9/11

Restrictive monetary policy; spike in oil prices; 1st Gulf war; savings & loan crisis

Iranian Revolution; high oil prices

Energy crisis; inflation; housing bubble

Vietnam; oil crisis

Restrictive monetary policy

Restrictive monetary policy

Restrictive monetary policy

Post Korean War drop in demandHistorical Trend

Below trend by 362,000jobs (24.5%)

Jan '92: 7.6% below trend600

900

1,200

1,500

Thou

sand

s

Nevada Employment

S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Employment\Employment (BLS CES), US & State & MSA by NAICS & MonthChart6

Jan-04

Post World War IIdrop in demand

Feb '82: 9.4% below trendWorld War II

0

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"Official"Recession

ContractingUS Employment

$60

Nevada Inflation-Adjusted Wage & Salary Disbursements

down 16.3%from peak

$50

from peak 

$40

rs

$30Billi

ons

2009

Dol

lar

$20

Jun-04$10

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S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Income & Net Worth\Personal Income (BEA), State by Quarter\Chart2

Page 4 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM

The Silver Sage

S:\PLAN\Prognostication\Data\Retail\Retail Sales, NV by MonthSS Retail Sales, NV by month

46.8% decline from peakJan-10

March Daily Collections

52 months since peakDec-05

48 months

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5M

illio

ns20

10 D

olla

rs

Inflation-Adjusted Average Daily 2% Sales Tax Receipts

Jan-10Dec-89

30.9% decline from Dec-89 peakJan-92

Jan-89 Jan-99$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

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Calendar Year

Jan-01

Nov-06April win

50 months

42 monthssince peak

30

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45

Mill

ions

2010

Dol

lars

Inflation‐Adjusted Statewide Average Daily Gaming Win

36.7% decline from Nov-06 Peak

20.1% decline fromJan-01 Peak

Jun-94 Jun-98

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Page 5June 9, 2010 2:46 PM

The Silver Sage

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30%Change in Total DropChange in Drop Excluding Baccarat

31 months

10%

20%Change in Drop Excluding Baccarat

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Inflation-Adjusted Las Vegas Average Gaming Win per Visitor

Calendar Year

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-Ove

r-Yea

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2009

Dol

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Inflation-Adjusted Statewide Average Daily Gaming Drop

Inflation-Adjusted Daily Sales Tax Collections

Calendar Year

Year

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Page 6 June 9, 2010 2:46 PM

The Silver Sage

200

250

300

20-City Maximum10-City Composit

Las Vegas Maximum:August 2006 @ 235.7

'08 Las Vegas Trend

Las Vegas Current: Mar'10@103.78 (56.0% decline from peak)

50

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150

20-City Minimum

Las Vegas10-City Composit

'90's Las Vegas Trend

0

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Hom

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ice

Inde

x Ja

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y 20

00 H

PI =

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Case-Shiller Seasonally Adjusted Home Price Index

90 000

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Room Inventory

DecemberMarch

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Average Daily Visitor Volume

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Las Vegas Visitors vs. Room Inventory

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Visi

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Nevada Single Family Home Permits Issued

Calendar Year