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Mike ClancyTechnical Director
An Overview of Fleet Numerical Meteorology
and Oceanography Center (FNMOC)
16 August 2010
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
2
Fleet Numerical…
• The U.S. Navy’s Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Center– Global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models
– Weather satellite imagery products
– Tactical decision aids
– High Performance Computing (HPC) at all levels of classification (UNCLAS, SECRET, TOP SECRET)
– The only global NWP Center protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD Information Assurance (IA) Standards
– Closely partnered with the Marine Meteorology Division of NRL (R&D support) and the Naval Oceanographic Office(co-production of operational products)
...enabling fleet safety & warfighting effectiveness
Naval Meteorology & Oceanography
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Naval Special Warfare
ISR
Navigation
Precise Time and Astrometry
Fleet Operations
Maritime Operations
Aviation OperationsFleet Safety1 and Near-Term
Operational Readiness
National Missions
Today’s Fight
Mine Warfare
Anti-Submarine Warfare
Navy Operations
FNMOC is the Key Enabler
for the Top 3 CNMOC Priorities
1Keeping the Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) safe
from weather threats is an area of growing concern.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
5
Organizational Profile
• Highly technical, educated, and warfare experienced workforce consisting of military, civilians, and contractors
– ~20 Officers
• 55% with MS Degree
• 25% will attend NPS next tour
• Wardroom includes: 1 UK Exchange Officer and 1 USAF Exchange Officer
– ~20 Enlisted
• 63% with Advanced Navy Specialty Training
• Several on Individual Augmentation (IA) assignments overseas
– ~140 Government Civilians & Contractors:
• Predominantly Physical Science and IT specialties(Meteorology, Oceanography, Computer Sciences)
• PhD – 3%, MS Degree - 23%, BS Degree - 34%
• ~$25M annual budget
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Models
• FNMOC operates a highly integrated and
cohesive suite of operational global and
regional weather and ocean models:
– Navy Operational Global Atmospheric
Prediction System (NOGAPS)
– Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale
Prediction System (COAMPS)
– Navy Atmospheric Variational Data
Assimilation System (NAVDAS/NAVDAS-AR)
– Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
(NAAPS)
– GFDN Tropical Cyclone Model
– WaveWatch 3 (WW3) Ocean Wave Model
– Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation
(NCODA) System
– Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
15 km
0 km
10 km
5 km
60 m s-1
20 m s-1
0 m s-1
40 m s-1
SierraOwensValley
Mountain
Wave
l~30 km
Obs ~28 km
Cross section of temperature and wind speeds from
COAMPS showing mountain waves over the Sierras
Surface Pressure and Clouds
Predicted by NOGAPS
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
77
Naval Meteorology and
Oceanography Concept of Operations
Linking Forecasts to Decisions
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
888
NAAPS
Ensemble
High-Level View of Navy Modeling
Architecture
NOGAPSCOAMPS
WW3
NAVO
Ocean Models
GFDN
BonD Tier 1 Database
Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,
ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)
Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,
BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)
Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)
Sat Imagery
Piracy Performance
Surface
Acoustic
Performance
Surface
Other ASW, MIW
and Ocean Products
Theater and On-
Scene Weather
and Ocean
Forecasting
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
999
NAAPS
Ensemble
NOGAPSCOAMPS
WW3
NAVO
Ocean Models
GFDN
BonD Tier 1 Database
Fleet Safety and Efficiency (SUBWEAX, AWIS, FWB,
ATCF,METEOGRAMS, WebSAR, TDP, DAF, OPARS, PFPS, AOTSR)
Warfighting Effectiveness (EM/EO Forecasts, TAWS, AREPS,
BALLWINDS, Vis/Dust Products, Atmospheric Acoustic Forecasts)
Ballistic Missile Targeting (CEEMS, WRIP)
Sat Imagery
Piracy Performance
Surface
Acoustic
Performance
Surface
Other ASW, MIW
and Ocean Products
Theater and On-
Scene Weather
and Ocean
Forecasting
High-Level View of Navy Modeling
Architecture
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
• State-of-the-art global
spectral model
• Run 4 times per day with
forecasts to 180 hours
• Provides lateral boundary
conditions for COAMPS
• Drives global WW3 at FNMOC
• Drives global ocean circulation
models at NAVO
• One of the leading tropical
cyclone track forecast models
in the world
• Developed and supported by
NRL0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
24 HR 48 HR 72 HR 96 HR 120HR
198919901991
19921993199419951996
199719981999200020012002
200320042005
Fo
rec
as
t S
kill
Forecast Time
Surface Pressure and Clouds from NOGAPS
Navy Operational Global Atmospheric
Prediction System (NOGAPS)
Improvement of NOGAPS Forecast Skill
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Modeling Changes in Past Year
• NAVDAS
– Local Area Coverage Winds
– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)
• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)
• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)
• EFS
– Banded ET (Feb 2010)
– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)
– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)
• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)
• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)
• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Navy Atmospheric Data Assimilation System-
Accelerated Representer (NAVDAS-AR)
The Navy’s 4D-VAR data assimilation
Monthly Averaged NOGAPS
SHEM TAU120 500 hPa Height
Anomaly Correlation by Year
NAVDAS-AR
Effective 28 September
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
24 48 72 96 120
NGPI
AVNI
GFDI
HWFI
TVCN
OFCL
2010 Atlantic (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
28 19 14 Number of Forecasts10 4
Fo
rec
as
t E
rro
r (n
m)
NOGAPS
Forecast Hour
NOGAPS
GFS
GFDL
HWRF
Consensu
s+ECMWF
Official
MODELS
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
24 48 72 96 120
NGPI
AVNI
CONW
OFCL
2010 Western North Pacific (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
51 37 25 Number of Forecasts13 5
Fo
rec
as
t E
rro
r (n
m)
Forecast Hour
NOGAPS
NOGAPS
GFS
Consensus
+ECMWF
Official
MODELS
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
0
50
100
150
200
250
24 48 72 96 120
NGPI
AVNI
GFDI
HWFI
TVCN
OFCL
2010 Eastern North Pacific (to date..7/26)
Homogeneous TC Forecast Error
73 54 40 Number of Forecasts27 18
Fo
rec
as
t E
rro
r (n
m)
Forecast Hour
NOGAPS
NOGAPS
GFS
GFDL
HWRF
Consensu
s+ECMWF
Official
MODELS
Tropical Cyclone Track Errors
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
16
NOGAPS low-level wind fields have always been as good as, or
better than, GFS and others.
CDAS is the model that NCEP has left frozen for the past 5 years.
NOGAPS 850 mb Wind AC Scores
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
17CDAS is the model that NCEP has left frozen for the past 5 years.
Though NOGAPS 500 mb height skill generally lags that of
GFS, there are months where it equals or betters GFS.
NOGAPS 500 mb Height AC Scores
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Ensemble Forecast System (EFS)
• Based on NOGAPS Forecasts, twice per
day to16 days, 20 members, T119L30
resolution
• Ensemble Transform perturbations in 5
latitude bands
• Also includes WW3 (WaveWatch III)
Forecasts, twice per day, 10 days, 20
members
• Gridded mean and standard deviation
products for winds, air temp, pressure,
heights, humidity available via CAGIPS
and METCAST
• Web Graphics of means and standard
deviations for standard WxMAP areas
and variables; plus probability of wind
speed exceeding 20, 35 and 50 kt, and
probability of wave height exceeding 4,
8, 12, 18 and 24 ft
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Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Modeling Changes in Past Year
• NAVDAS
– Local Area Coverage Winds
– NOAA-19 AVHRR Radiances (July 2009)
• NOGAPS T239L42/NAVDAS-AR 4DVAR (Sep 2009)
• NAVDAS-AOD (Oct 2009)
• EFS
– Banded ET (Feb 2010)
– Forecast extended to 16 days (Feb 2010)
– Extended number of members to 20 (April 2010)
• GFDN 3D POM in West Pacific (Jun 2009)
• WW3 Wave Height Assimilation (Sep 2009)
• NOGAPS T319L42 (May 10)
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
WxMap EFS Products
• Ensemble Mean and Spread (stdev) Areas
– N. Atlantic, S. Atlantic, W. Pacific, E. Pacific, Conus, Europe,
Gulf of Mexico, Southwest Asia, Global, N. Hemisphere
• Ensemble Mean and Spread (std dev) Variables
– MSL pressure
– 500 mb geopotential height
– 1000 mb geopotential height
– 6 hr accumulated precipitation
– 2 m air temperature
– 850 mb air temperature
– 10 m wind speed
– 250 mb wind speed
– 500 mb relative vorticity
– 1000 – 500 mb thickness
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Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Example Products
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Probability of 10 m winds > 20 kt
2010080400 tau 72
Probability of Sig Wave Height > 8 ft
2010080400 tau 72
Ensemble Mean and
Ensemble Spread
2010080400 tau 72
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
22
Impossible
Very
Difficult
Moderately
Difficult
Problematic or Non-Issue M
ISS
ION
SU
CC
ES
SNavy Risk Management Matrix
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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FNMOC and NUOPC
• FNMOC is committed to the success of NUOPC.
• Operational incorporation of the NOGAPS Ensemble into the North American Ensemble forecast System (NAEFS) at NCEP will constitute NUOPC IOC-1.
• The data exchange requirements required to achieve NUOPC IOC-1 are stressing the IT infrastructures at both Navy and NOAA, but progress is being made.
• We expect to leverage AFWA ensemble post-processing, in accordance with the NUOPC Unified Ensemble Operations (UEO) Committee Report.
• Most of the FNMOC NUOPC requirements identified in the UEO Report (personnel and computer hardware) remain unfunded.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Global Multi-Model Ensemble
Experience from NAEFSBaseline Skill of Raw NCEP Ensemble
Statistical correction of Raw NCEP
ensemble improves skill
Addition of FNMOC (NOGAPS)
Ensemble to the Statistically
Corrected NCEP Ensemble
Increases skill dramatically (by
~ 1.25 days) beyond 6 days
Addition of CMC Ensemble to the
Statistically Corrected NCEP
Ensemble increases skill slightly
more than the addition of NOGAPS
(by ~1.75 days)
Combination of the NCEP,
FNMOC and CMC
Ensembles produces the most
skillful forecasts (~2.0 days better
than the statistically corrected
NCEP Ensemble) beyond 6 days
From NCEP’s presentation “Evaluation for Inclusion of FNMOC Ensemble into NAEFS”, 1 Oct 2009, unpublished.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
NAEFS/NUOPC Data Transfer Status
• 72 height/variable combinations for 0 to 384 hours every
6 forecast hours
• Approximately 4.6 GB twice/day
• Transfer begins 4 hr 30 min after analysis time,
completes at FNMOC external server at 5 hr 30 min and
completes at NCEP operations at 6 hr 30 min
• GRIB2 format JPEG 2000 compression
• Packaged as all variables/levels for each
member/forecast tau (1300 files)
25
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Near-Term FNMOC Ensemble
Plans in Support of NUOPC
• 9 band Ensemble Transform perturbations (Sep/Oct 2010)
• Stochastic physics (stochastic kinetic energy backscatter)
(Sep/Oct 2010)
• Verification system (Nov/Dec 2010)
• T159L42 (mid 2011), may be delayed to also include Semi-
Lagrangian/Semi-Implicit formulation
• Bias correction (mid 2011)
26
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Results from Combined FNMOC and
NCEP Global WW3 Ensemble
• Based on comparison against
~325,000 Jason 1, Jason 2 and
Envisat altimeter wave height
observations.
• FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows
more skill than FNMOC WW3
deterministic run for forecast lead
times greater than 72 hours.
• FNMOC WW3 Ensemble shows
more skill than NCEP WW3
Ensemble for all lead times.
• Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3
Ensemble shows most skill of all for
forecast lead times greater than 72
hours.
• Combined FNMOC/NCEP WW3
Ensemble gains about 48 hours of
skill relative to the NCEP WW3
ensemble.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Ensembles - Ocean Circulation
• Currently supporting Navy ops
– 32 members of regional model with
perturbations of surface fluxes and
initial conditions
– Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
(EnTKF) approach
– Primary application: adaptive
sampling, i.e. where to direct
measurement assets, such as
gliders
• Current Navy R&D
– Mesoscale & coastal focus
– Expansion of perturbations to
include boundary conditions and
bathymetry
• Future
– Coupled models (esp. regional /
mesoscale) are viable candidates
for ensemble methodologies
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
Phase
Item
Exploratory/Advanced Tech.Development
Demonstration & Validation
OperationalImplementation
Operations
Resource Sponsor (Funding Category)
ONR/NRL/Other
(6.2 S&T)
CNO N84 or Other Agent
(6.4 RDT&E)
CNMOC
(6.4 RDT&E;
O&M,N)
CNMOC
(O&M,N)
Objective
Initial Development Through Proof-Of-Concept
Requirements
review
Complete Development
Validation
Demonstration in Simulated Ops
OPEVAL– Beta Run
– OPTEST
Full Operational Integration
Operation & Maintenance
Life-Cycle Support
Technical Support & “Warranty” Service
DeliverablesJournal, Publication
or Technical Report
Software
Source Code
Model Transition Plan
Validation Test Report
Final DOD-STD Documentation
OPTEST Report
Upgrades and Fixes
ParticipantsONR PIs
NRL Developers
Non-Navy S&T
Administrative Model Oversight Panel
Tech Validation Panel
Chair, NRL Developer
Implementation PanelChair, FNMOC
FNMOCConfiguration
Control Board
Rapid Transition Process
TRL 2-3 4-6 7-9 10
Model Transition Process
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
30
Systems are linked directly to ~332 TB of disk space and ~160 TB of tape archive space.
FNMOC HPC Systems
NAME TYPE CPUs MEMORY
(GB)
PEAK
(TFLOPS)
Disk
(TB)
OS
FS1 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX
FS2 SGI ORIGIN 3900 256 256 0.7 30 TRIX
ATOS2 IBM 1350s/x440s/x345s 438 645 2.2 40 Linux
CAAPS IBM e1350s 148 272 0.7 10 Linux
A2 OPAL Dell Linux Cluster System 928 1800 10.0 65 Linux
A2 RUBY Dell Linux Cluster System 1168 1170 12.0 56 Linux
A2 TOPAZ Dell Linux Cluster System 280 1200 3.0 16 Linux
A2 EMERALD Dell Linux Cluster System 1224 3672 13.0 65 Linux
A2 ZIRCON Dell Linux Cluster System TBD TBD TBD 20 Linux
TOTAL 4,698 ~9300 ~ 45 ~ 330
FS = File Server / Cross Domain
ATOS = Applications, Transactions, and Observations Subsystem
CAAPS = Centralized Atmospheric Analysis and Prediction System
A2 = Combined AMS / ATOS System
UNCLAS
SECRET
UNCLAS and SECRET
TS/SCI
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Summary
• FNMOC is the U.S. Navy’s global NWP Center.
• FNMOC operates a closely integrated suite of global and regional meteorological and oceanographic models in support of Fleet Safety and Warfighting Effectiveness.
• NOGAPS, the FNMOC global NWP model, is competitive with other operational global models, and the only such model protected from cyberwarfare attack to DoD IA standards.
• The NOGAPS ensemble is currently being folded into NAEFS to constitute NUOPC IOC-1.
• A formal and effective process is used to manage the transition of new science and technology from the R&D community into operations at FNMOC.
• FNMOC is committed to vendor-neutral Linux Cluster architectures to meet its HPC infrastructure needs.
Fleet Numerical…Supercomputing Excellence for Fleet Safety and Warfighter Decision Superiority…
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Questions?