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An Overview of Economic Data
Su, Chapter 2, section I
Classifications of Economic Data
• Many ways to classify economic data
• Most depend on some observable feature
• Classification helps to put the data in context
Primary vs. Secondary Data
• Primary: First Hand. Generated by researcher in experiments. Common in physical sciences. Can be replicated
• Secondary: Collected by another party, typically the government. – Non-experimental– Observational– Needs careful treatment
Time Series vs. Cross Sectional
• Time Series - “Dynamic”– Generated sequentially through time
– A measurement of the same economic agent (individual, firm, etc.)
– Dynamic
• Cross Sectional - “Static”– Generated across different agents
– At same point in time
– Static
Panel Data
• Combination of cross-sections over time
• Combines features of both types
Macroeconomic vs. Microeconomic
• Depends on level of aggregation
• Macro– Measures activity of entire economy– Reflects many agents behavior
• Micro– Measures activity of individuals
High-Frequency vs. Low Frequency
• Time Series and Panel distinction only
• Most series are “discrete”
• Categories– Real Time– High Frequency– Low Frequency
• Hourly, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Annual
Frequency Considerations
• Little high frequency economic data exist
• Must use care when mixing frequencies
• Low frequency data can be treated as high frequency data aggregated over time
• Information is lost as high frequency data are aggregated
Stocks vs. Flows
• Stock data: Measures data at a point in time– Capital stock, end of month checking balance
• Flow data: Occurs over a period of time– Investment, monthly earnings and spending
Units of Measurement
• Data in levels: Absolute size of these variables convey sense of magnitude– Billions of Dollars
– Millions of persons
• Data in changes: Sense of dynamics. Ratios.– Growth rates
– Differences
• Economic data are typically expressed in dollar terms
Real vs. Nominal
• Data measured in dollars must be corrected for changes in prices
• Ruler of variable length
Indexes
• Relative comparison of values• Commonly used
– Price Indexes
– Dow Jones Index
– Industrial Production
• Laspeyers: t = (PtxQo)/(PoxQo)x100– Base Weighted
• Paasche: t = (PtxQt)/(PoxQt)x100– Current weighted
Ratios
• Growth Rate of • GDP = (GDPt - GDPt-1)/GDPt-1x100
• Inflation = (Pt - Pt-1)/Pt-1x100
• Interest = (Dt - Dt-1)/Dt-1x100 D: Deposits
• Unemployment Rate = (LF-EMP)/LFx100• LF: Labor Force
• EMP: Level of employment
Historical Movements
• Use Plots to depict movements– “Time Shape” or “Time Path”
• Generate characteristics or “summary statistics”
• Conveys much information
Quarterly GDP 1947 - 1967
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
35001947
1948
1950
1952
1954
1955
1957
1959
1961
1962
1964
1966
30 Year Mortgage Rates 1971-1991
0
5
10
15
20
1971
1972
1974
1975
1977
1978
1980
1981
1983
1984
1986
1987
1989
1990
Monthly Unemployment Rate
024681012
1970
1971
1973
1974
1976
1977
1979
1981
1982
1984
1985
1987
1989
1990
First-Order Difference
• Or “First Difference”
Yt = Yt - Yt-1 for all t
• Change in Y
• If negative, Y fell
• If positive, Y rose
• Like Growth RateGR(Yt) = (Yt - Yt-1)/Yt-1 = Yt/Yt-1
First Difference of Quarterly GDP
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1947
1948
1950
1951
1953
1954
1956
1957
1959
1960
1962
1963
1965
1966
Growth in Quarterly GDP
-20
-10
0
10
20
301947
1948
1950
1951
1953
1954
1956
1957
1959
1960
1962
1963
1965
1966
First Difference of Mortgage Rate
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1971
1972
1974
1975
1976
1978
1979
1980
1982
1983
1984
1986
1987
1988
1990
1991
Second-Order Difference
• Or “Second Difference”
Yt = Yt - Yt-1 = Yt - 2Yt-1 + Yt-2
• Change in Y
Second Difference of Quarterly GDP
-75
-25
25
75
125
1947
1949
1950
1952
1953
1955
1956
1958
1959
1961
1962
1964
1965
1967