An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment

An outlook to future air quality in Europe:Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective

Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

35th Session of the EMEP Steering BodyGeneva, Sep 5-7, 2011

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970

energy efficiencyimprovements

changes in fuelstructure

(end-of-pipe)emission controls

Actual SO2

Hypothetical GDP(3% growth/yr)

Actual GDP(constant 2000 Euro)

SO2 avoided through

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970




Actual SO2



SO2 avoided through

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970




Actual SO2



SO2 avoided through

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970




Actual SO2



SO2 avoided through

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970




Actual SO2



SO2 avoided through

SO2 emissions in Western Europe (EU15+2):A 1970’s perspective and actual development to 2010

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

SO2

and

GDP

rela

tive

to 1

970




Actual SO2



SO2 avoided through

Source: IIASAhttp://gains.iiasa.ac.at

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection

Mega-trends: Energy consumption up to 2030

• Baseline assumes current MS policies, but not the targets of the Energy & Climate Package

• Despite a 50% increase in GDP, EU-27 energy use would stabilize

• No major changes in fuel shares, although renewables increase

• Saturation of transport demand after 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Prim

ary

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(100

0 PJ

)

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biomass Other renewables

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Prim

ary

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

(100

0 PJ

)

Conversion Power sector HouseholdsIndustry Transport Non-energy

0

3

6

9

12

15

AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SL ES SE UK EU

1000

Pas

seng

er-k

ilom

eter

/ pe

rson

2005 Gasoline 2005 Gasoline 2020 Gasoline 2020 Diesel 2030 Gasoline 2030 Diesel

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

AT BE BG CY CZ DK EE FI FR DE GR HU IE IT LV LT LU MT NL PL PT RO SK SL ES SE UKEU

-27

Ener

gy in

tens

ity

of G

DP

(TJ/

mill

€)

2005 2020 2030

Energy use by fuel

Energy use by sector Energy intensity of GDP Mileage per person


Mega-trends: Agricultural and land use development

• Less cows and cattle, more pigs

• Strong increase in bio-fuel production

• More land area for crops and wood production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030

Tota

l woo

d de

man

d [M

m3]

Energy wood

Fuel wood

Other ind. roundwood

Pulp wood

Sawnwood0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Lives

tock

uni

ts

Dairy cows Other cattlePigs Chicken and poultry(*10)Sheep

Livestock numbersWood production

Bio-fuel production

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection (= Gothenburg revision baseline)

Most air pollutant emissions will decline

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emiss

ions

[kt]

Power generation Domestic sectorIndustrial combustion Industrial processesFuel extraction SolventsRoad transport Off-road transportWaste treatment Agriculture

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emiss

ions

[kt]


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emiss

ions

[kt]


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emiss

ions

[kt]


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emiss

ions

[kt]


• Baseline includes current legislation with national interpretations of IPPC directive

• Strong decline in SO2, NOx, PM, VOC before 2020, but less improvements expected after 2020

• Only little change in NH3 after 2010

SO2

NH3

VOCPM2.5NOx


Impact indicators will decline too

• All impact indicators will decline to 2030

• New in EC4MACS: Assessment for Natura2000 areas

Natura2000 areas: Excess of critical loads in 2020

Eutrophication Acidification


But damage costs remain substantial

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

low high low high low high2000 2020 2030

€ bi

llion

/yea

r MaterialsCropsMorbidity ozoneMortality ozoneMorbidity PM2.5Mortality PM2.5

Damage costs of air pollution in the EU-27

0.0

0.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically

feasiblereductions

Mill

ion

life

year

s gai

ned/

year

Hour

s per

wor

ker p

er y

ear

Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report

Working time gained from less absence of work

Working time required to pay for measures

The EC4MACS Baseline Projection There is potential for further cost-effective action with large benefits

EU-27, based on Holland et al., 2010

0.0

0.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Baseline LOW Low* Mid High* HIGH Maximumtechnically

feasiblereductions

Mill

ion

life

year

s gai

ned/

year

Hour

s per

wor

ker p

er y

ear

Emission control cases in CIAM 1/2011 report

Life years gained from reduced mortality

Working time gained from less absence of work

Working time required to pay for measures

Cause-specific mortality method suggests larger health effects from PM than earlier all-cause approach

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Cause-specific All-cause Cause-specific All-cause

EU-27 Non-EU

Mon

ths

All-cause

Respiratory

Cardio-vascular

Lung cancer

Loss in statistical life expectancy due to PM2.5 in 2000

Source: CIAM report 2/2011 for TFH 2011

Findings: Some key problem areas in the future

• Air quality:- Urban air quality (PM, NO2)- Nitrogen

• Climate:– Climate targets for 2050 require fundamental structural measures

in the near term- Land use emissions/sinks critical for further agreements

• Interactions between air quality policies and climate strategies

Priority areas for further EMEP and WGE workfrom an integrated assessment perspective

EMEP WGE

PM Close the gap between observations and model results, also in urban areas

Health impacts from PM (cause-specific mortality, transferability, morbidity)

Ozone Explain historic ozone trends and source attribution:hemispheric - European – local

Demonstrate health and vegetation benefits of further ozone reductions

Eutrophication Communication to public

Acidification Demonstrate benefits of further emission controls

Documents

An outlook to future air quality in Europe: Priorities for EMEP and WGE from an Integrated Assessment perspective Markus Amann Centre for Integrated Assessment