An Introduction to –

Climate Change and India: A 4x 4 Assessment

A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s

Subodh Sharma

MoEF

Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA)

16th November, 2010. Ashok Hotel, New Delhi

Outline

• The Context

• About INCAA

• The 4x4 Assessment

• Approach

• Emerging results

Context

• Human Induced Climate change is recognized

as a challenge and threat.

• Future projections of climate change indicate

adverse impacts and wide ranging implications.

• The concerns of India are even higher

• Need for assessments of impacts on various

sectors at the regional (state) level especially

on climate sensitive regions

INCCA

• INCCA, network based programme is mandated to –

– Assess the drivers and implications of climate change through scientific research

– Prepare climate change assessments once every two years (GHG estimations and impacts of climate change, associated vulnerabilities and adaptation)

– Develop decision support systems

– Build capacity towards management of climate change related risks and opportunities

INCCA Programmes

The 4x4 Assessment

• Focus on 4 climate sensitive regions in India

- Himalayan Region

- North Eastern Region

- Western Ghats

- Coastal region

• Assess what would be the likely impacts in 2030s on

- Agriculture

- Ecosystems and biodiversity

- Water resources and

- Human health affected by climate variability

• For 2030s

The Regions

The Himalayan Region

The North Eastern region

The Regions

Western Ghats

Coastal Region

The Sectors

WaterAgriculture

Forest & Biodiversity

Health

ApproachStudied the observed climate and simulated the same using

PRECIS having a resolution of 50 km x 50 km

Developed climate change scenarios for 2030s (average of

2021-2050) using PRECIS run on A1B scenario

Changes are deduced w.r.t. the average of the period 1961-

1990s (also referred to as 1970 or baseline)

Using these climate change scenarios, have run biophysical

models and/or developed criteria for determining the impacts

Also used expert judgment to ascertain the likely impacts

where modeling not yet possible

A1B Scenario

Assumptions –

• Uniform improvement in Energy Efficiency

• Reduction in the cost of Energy Supply with use mixed use of Conventional, Renewable Energy and Gas

• Resulting in a balanced mix of technologies, supply sources with technology improvements with no energy source being dominant

• A sustainable socioeconomic and technological development.

Institutional

arrangement

Health

Climate Change

Assessment 2030s

Climate Change Scenarios

Impacts

Regions Sectors Institutions

Himalayan Region

Western Ghats

Coastal Areas

North-Eastern

region

Sea Level Rise

Water

Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity

Agriculture

IITM

NIO

JU

IITD

GBPIHED

NIO

NRAA

IITM

IITR

CGWB

CARI

JNU

INRM

IISc

GBPIHED

GBPIHED

YSPU

IARI

CMFRI

IIPH

NIMR

Institutions = 18

Experts/ Scientists = 43

Climate Scenario

• Made for 2030s using PRECIS run on A1B – A region climate model with 50kmx50km resolution

• The parameters studied

- Temperature

- Precipitation

- Extreme events

• Sea Level rise included in the committed projections of global sea level rise

Salient Findings

Projected Climate Change Parameters in 2030s

with respect to 1970s

Extreme

Precipitation

Extreme Temperature

Precipitation

Temperature

North-Eastern Region

Coastal Region

Western Ghats

Himalayan region

Features

Intensity

No. of Rainy days

increase Slight increase

No change decrease

Key

No particular trend

Emerging Results –Temperature Projections

A warming trend is projected for all the 4 regions under focus in 2030s

Emerging Results – Projections for Precipitation

The precipitation levels are projected to increase in all

the 4 regions

The number of rainy days are projected to decrease,

however intensity is set to increase

Sea Level Rise and

coastal inundation

86°0'0"E

86°0'0"E

86°10'0"E

86°10'0"E

86°20'0"E

86°20'0"E

86°30'0"E

86°30'0"E

86°40'0"E

86°40'0"E

86°50'0"E

86°50'0"E

87°0'0"E

87°0'0"E

87°10'0"E

87°10'0"E

87°20'0"E

87°20'0"E

87°30'0"E

87°30'0"E

87°40'0"E

87°40'0"E

19°10'0"N 19°10'0"N

19°20'0"N 19°20'0"N

19°30'0"N 19°30'0"N

19°40'0"N 19°40'0"N

19°50'0"N 19°50'0"N

20°0'0"N 20°0'0"N

20°10'0"N 20°10'0"N

20°20'0"N 20°20'0"N

20°30'0"N 20°30'0"N

20°40'0"N 20°40'0"N

20°50'0"N 20°50'0"N

21°0'0"N 21°0'0"N

21°10'0"N 21°10'0"N

21°20'0"N 21°20'0"N

21°30'0"N

25

Kilometers

Sea level to rise in

consonance with the

global sea level rise

Significant coastal

inundation seen with

a 1m sea level rise,

especially in the low

lying areas

Coastal inundation (shown in red) map of Paradip region for a 1.0 m sea-level

Transmission windows for

Malaria

Net Primary Productivity

Water resources

Agricultural productivity

North-Eastern region

Coastal region

Western Ghats

Himalayan region

Features

increase Slight increase

No change decrease

Key

Salient FindingsTrends in Impacts for 2030s in A1B

No particular trend

Emerging results -

Agriculture

• There is a general decrease in productivity of crops however cash crops like coconut may increase.

• Some species of marine fisheries are likely to have higher catch compared to others as their area of spawning shifts to higher latitudes

• The livestock productivity is likely to be affected adversely with increase in extreme temperatures

Irrigated rice Rainfed rice

Projected changes - Water

Water yield –

Himalayan region: is likely

to increase

North Eastern region:

Reduction

Western ghats: Variable

water yield changes

projected across the

region

Coastal region: A general

reduction in water yield

Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity

Forests: Changes in vegetation type and decrease in Net Primary productivity is projected

Grass land: Enhanced CO2levels are projected to favor C3 plants over C4 grasses, but the projected increase in temperature would favour C4 plants

Coral reefs: Increase in temperature will lead to bleaching of corals

Mangroves: Sea-level rise leading to increase the salinity may favour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity

Key: 1: Tropical evergreen forest/woodland, 2: Tropical deciduous forest/woodland, 3: Temperate evergreen broadleaf forest/woodland, 4: Temperate evergreen conifer forest/woodland, 5: Temperate deciduous forest/woodland, 6: Boreal evergreen forest/woodland, 7: Boreal deciduous forest/woodland, 8: Mixed forest/woodland, 9: Savanna, 10: Grassland/steppe, 11: Dense shrubland, 12: Open shrubland, 13: Tundra, 14: Desert, 15: Polar desert/rock/ice

Projected changes in Forest vegetation

Projected Changes in Human Health

• Likely increase in morbidity due to rise in extreme temperatures

• Likely increase in morbidity and mortality due to increase in water borne diseases (enhanced flooding and SLR)

• Reduced crop yields may raise malnutrition cases (climate)

• Increase in incidence of malaria due to opening up of transmission windows at higher altitudes (climate)

1970s 2030s

Transmission windows of Malaria

The Programme for the Day

Thank You!