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An Introduction
History Theory Application
1992: The UNFCCC's call for an equitable distribution of carbon emission rights among individual states or groups of states, in proportion to their population, with planned progress towards that objective by an agreed date
Between 1992 and 1995, at the request of the IPCC, the Global Commons Institute (GCI) discovered and presented an analysis on the growing trend of 'Expansion and Divergence‘
Contraction and Convergence was developed by the GCI to counteract the negative effects of the trend of expansion and divergence.
Mostly popular for developing countries, but not entirely
Cap and Share idea...
Contraction and Convergence: ◦ it defines emission quotas on the basis of a
convergence in per capita emissions, ◦ under a contracting global greenhouse gas
emission profile ◦ all countries participate with emission
endowments converging to equal per capita levels over time.
combines the egalitarian and acquired rights approaches, leaving aside the responsibility and capability principles
Boundary conditions:◦ Define the total amount of carbon in the
atmosphere acceptable ◦ Annual fall of global emissions calculated - ◦ Pathway until „safe” level of atmospehric
concentration is reached
Convergence:◦ How the entitlements to emit carbon are
distributed between the countries of the world:
◦ When convergence of all per capita emissions reached the same level, they start to contract – decrease
Trading of emission endowments is possible Cut off date in population numbers „Hot air” is part of the system
Equal per capita emissons globally
Current emissions
Stringency of the climate target:◦ Pre-agreed global concentration determined to be
safe◦ Fall rate of emissions
Convergence date Cut off date of population numbers
1. Recognise the prevention of dangerous climate change as an essential global security interest
2. Agree danger indicators3. Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable4. Decide CO2 concentration target and timetable5. Set annual global CO2 emissions budgets according to a
"contraction" formula6. Calculate relative national shares of the global budget
according to a "convergence" formula7. Allocate national CO2 emissions quotas8. Establish criteria and mechanisms for quota management9. Set up a system for emissions trading10. Require International Airline and Shipping companies to
purchase CO2 emission quotas11. Devise potential sanctions, penalties, and compensation!!!
GCI www.gci.org.uk
5Gtc
10Gtc
1900 2000 2100
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
1800 2200
0
2
4
6
Gross Emissions
Per Capita Emissions
GCI www.gci.org.uk
0
2
4
6
5Gtc
10Gtc
1900 2000 21001800 2200
Rest of World
India
ChinaAnnex 1 (non-OECD)
OECD minus USA
USA
Gross Emissions
Per Capita Emissions
GCI www.gci.org.uk
Gtc
10Gtc
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Annex One
CO2 Annex OneBAU
i.e. Convergence by 2100
GCI www.gci.org.uk
Gtc
10Gtc
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Non Annex One
CO2 Annex OneBAU
i.e. Convergence by 2020
GCI www.gci.org.uk
Gtc
10Gtc
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Negotiated Area
CO2 Annex OneBAU
i.e. Convergence by 202030Gtc
20Gtc
GCI www.gci.org.uk
Gtc
10Gtc
1800 1900 2000 2100 2200
CO2 Non Annex OneCO2 Traded Area
CO2 Annex OneBAU
30Gtc
20Gtc
Net Zero CO2 Renewables
Efficiency
Which contraction budget? ◦ The budget should be 'risk-averse‘
Agree on danger indicators◦ Factrong in long term stabilisation◦ Necessity: 350/450 ppmv – „political
reality”: 550 ppmv Which convergence date?
◦ Sooner the better, but „political reality”