An Information Age Combat Model Research Update Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights Reserved Jeff Cares Alidade Incorporated Search Theory

An Information Age Combat Model

Research Update

Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights Reserved

Jeff CaresAlidade Incorporated

Search Theory Workshop3 Sep 2003

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ALIDADEINCORPORATED


Simplistic Physical ModelInformation Age Warfare

Information Backplane

Targets

Sensor Grid

Weapons Grid

Trivializes space, time, tactics, etc. … that is: arrangements

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Search Theory and an Information Age Combat Model

How can we make progress without a value proposition?

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Combat Theory Developments

Plus Keith Ho:Parametric Analysis

Combat Entropy (alternative calculations)Integer Effects

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Insights• Homogenous Almost Completely Specified• Hetrogenous is Next Horizon

– Shannon Entropies of , are potential candidates for NCW MOEs

– As i, j get large• system could be better modeled with NKCS

(Search Theory track) – As i, j get very large

• system becomes atomistic and might be better modeled with ABM (Illachinski, Project Albert track)

Dr. Brian McCue: “Search Theory, Invented Now”May ’02 Conference

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What is a Military Force?

D

I

S

T

Simplest Network:Passive Target (T),Autonomous Sensor (S),Simple Decider (D),Autonomous Influence (I)

Model with all features has 36 dimensions!

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S S

I

D DTT

I

Two-Sided Simple Combat

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T T

S

D

I

S

D

I

A Warfare Network

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T

T

S

D

I

S

D

I

T T

S

D I S

D

I

101

11111111

11 111

111

11

11111111

11111

111

00

000

00000

000000

000

00000

000

row maps directionally to column = 1, 0 otherwise

Adjacency Matrix

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Control Cycles (8)

• SX SX DX SX

– Controlling own sensor arrangements

• TX SX DX TX – Controlling own target arrangements

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Catalytic Control Cycles (50)

• SX SX DX SX

TX TX– Controlling own sensor arrangements based on

own own target arrangements• IX SX DX IX SX

SX,TX SX,TX– Controlling own influencer arrangements based

on own sensor and target arrangements

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Competitive Catalytic Cycles (4950)

• DX,IX,TX SX DX DX,IX,TX SX SY SY

– controlling own decision maker, influencer and target arrangements based on the opposition’s sensor arrangements

• DX,IX,TX SX DX DX,IX,TX SX SY,SX,IY

SY,SX,IY – controlling own decision maker, influencer and target arrangements

based on the opposition’s sensor arrangements, opposition influencer arrangements and own-force sensor arrangements

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Combat Cycles (12)

• TY SX DX IX TY

– Influencing opposition targets

• DY,TY SX DX IX DY,TY

– Influencing opposition targets and decision makers

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Implications

• Distributed, Networked combat highly catalytic– Perhaps auto-catalytic

• Most effort is control rather than combat

• Very high dimensional competition– Not all events fully controlled by

any one side

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Next Steps

• Choice of Mathematical Formalism– Hypercycle Theory– Statistical Mechanics

• Meyers, Brown: “Statistical Mechanics of Voting”

– Fitness Landscapes• NKCS with skew distributions

– Others?• Phase II

– Toy Model Simulation

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Proposed Metrics• Number

– Links, nodes• Link:Node Ratio• Degree Distribution (scale)• Clustering Coefficient• Characteristic Path Length• Correlation Coefficient• Signal Strength• Groupings• Mean Chain Length• Average Branching Ratio• Radius• # Steps to Local Optima ( Ln N)

– N.B. Red King, Red Queen• Topological Entropy

– Defines difference between rulesets

• Search time (say, to find a part)

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Beyond Physical Models…

Information Age Warfare(Domains)

Information Age Warfare(Domains)

“Physical”

platforms, fuel,weapons, etc.

“Physical”

platforms, fuel,weapons, etc.

Information

exformation,entropy,

fusion, etc.

Information

exformation,entropy,

fusion, etc.

IT

computers,bandwidth,packets, etc.

IT

computers,bandwidth,packets, etc.

Cognitive

understanding,pattern-matching,perspective, etc.

Cognitive

understanding,pattern-matching,perspective, etc.

Most folks are looking only here for NCW/RMA Solutions

Military Operations are Difficult because of these Domains

The payoff from a transformation will be found here

PhysicalPhysical InformationInformation CognitiveCognitive

…But including physical models

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Questions?

Documents

An Information Age Combat Model Research Update Copyright 2000-2003, Alidade Consulting, All Rights Reserved Jeff Cares Alidade Incorporated Search Theory