An Independent review of tipsters and betting systems...Hi Another Cheltenham festival has been and gone, heralding the end of the jumps season and the start of the flat. I'm certainly

Hi

Another Cheltenham festival has been and gone,heralding the end of the jumps season and the start ofthe flat. I'm certainly looking forward to the newcampaign. On the flat theme, you'll find an interestingarticle on the flat racing across the water in Ireland.Irish flat racing is generally dominated by some keyjockey/trainer combinations – find out more inside!.

E-letter readers will already be aware of this greatlittle backing system I came across in my search for auseable, self-generated lay system. With winners up to25/1, it's a hidden gem and has some great potential.

Raj Patel has launched a new product dedicated tofootball – it actually has some potential! The RacingSecrets Calculator has also generated a lot of responsein my inbox – but is it the key to your earlyretirement?

We have the usual system and tipsters round plusgood ol’ Patriarch takes a look at The National Lottery– so enjoy!

Clive

PS: If your email address is either AOL or talktalkand you are expecting a reply, apologies. For somereason your USP is blocking my responses! If youcould send me an alternative return email address I can

make sure my answer gets through.

Betting System Revealed!

Profit From Horses TheProfessionals Ignore WithThis Ex-Lay System!

Icame across this little system which has somepotential long-term when looking for a new angle

from a laying perspective. I’m willing to look at everyangle, and although I found this system did select alarge number of losers, I was impressed by the pricesof the winners and the horses who placed, from aneach way perspective.

So what’s involved? First we need to look at the race cards for each

day’s meetings and pay particular attention to theSelections Box found on the racing post website atwww.racingpost.co.uk. The new style of the racingpost site makes the selection process even easier.

An example will show this well:

1) Look at the Tips column. Can you see Akilak has 4tips, Bougoure has 3 tips and Euro American has 2tips?

2) Focus now on the betting forecast. The shortestpriced horse in the betting forecast who hasn’tmanaged any tips is Tomenoso, who becomes ourselection.

Simple isn’t it? Here’s an example from 1st March:

LINGFIELD

130 – Polish Power – 1st 9/2200 – Stravinsky’s Art – Non Runner230 – Not Now Lewis – 3rd 5/1300 – Kaveri – unplaced

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In this issue:Profit From Horses The Professionals Ignore With This Ex-Lay System!..................................page 1

Why This Betfair Calculator Doesn’t Quite Match The Hype.....................................................page 3

Could This be The Big Breakthrough in FootballTrading We’ve All Been Waiting For? ..........page 4

The Six Top Irish Heavyweight Trainer-JockeyTeams in Coming Flat Season............................page 5

System and Tipster Round Up...................................page 6

The Patriarch Presents . . .Why you shouldn’t dismiss the National Lottery as a genuine betting opportunity.....................................................................................page 9

How to Use Sectional Times to Boost Your Greyhoud Returns..........................................page 11

And Finally . . . NEW! How to Turn Your DigitalCamera Into a Money-Spinner! ..........................page 12

What Really Wins MoneyAn Independent review of tipsters and betting systems

March 2007

WRWM_March07.qxd 21/3/07 13:41 Page 1

330 – Miss Saafend Plaza – unplaced400 – Littleton Telchar – 3rd 12/1430 – Jebel Ali – 2nd 16/1500 – Marbaa unplaced

LUDLOW

210 – Kegeree – 3rd 15/2240 – Reelings / The Sneakster – both unplaced310 – Warpath – 2nd 22/1340 – Sungates – unplaced410 – Coorbawn Vic – unplaced440 – Roberty Bob – unplaced510 – Marsh Court – unplaced

TAUNTON

220 – Rebelling – unplaced250 – Incorporation – 2nd 12/1320 – Ibberton – unplaced350 – Mibleu – unplaced420 – Tadieusz Madieij – unplaced450 – Royal Scandal – 1st 11/2520 – Saunders Road – 1st 25/1

Wins at 9/2, 11/2 and 25/1, with 6 horses placed,one at 22/1. A decent return on the day. And this is notisolated by any stretch.

On the 28th February, there were 2 meetings atFolkestone and Southwell, with 16 selections in all. Ofthese selections, there were winners at 6/1, 11/1, 8/1,16/1, 3 2nd places at 14/1, 9/1, 9/2, and a 3rd place at14/1. 7 horses remain unplaced. A superb return on theday I think you’ll agree.

Enhance the oddsNow this becomes even more exciting when we

look at the above prices on Betfair. The enhanced oddsat Betfair, especially for perceived outsiders, meansthat 16/1 winners can look more like 20-25/1 winners.The odds for the 25/1 winner Saunders Road atTaunton would have been far greater than thebookmakers’ odds.

So how can you benefit?There are a number of ways we can make use of

these selections. Here are some off the cuffsuggestions:

• Back to level stakes• Place only betting• Stop at a winner• Bet by racecourse as there’s a bet each race and

stop at a winner /profit on each racecourse.

The first thing to note is that, generally, there is aselection in every race. Why is this important? Well,firstly we can take each meeting independently andstop at a winner OR stop at a profit (if in the position

to follow proceedings race by race) at each meeting.

Alternatively these selections can be backed to levelstakes. If the big winners continue in the future, we canbe assured that profits from these can overcome theinevitable losers.

Each way betting will enable us to take advantageof the big priced horses which are placed. Rememberthat using Betfair we can, oftentimes, get some decentodds in the place market which will compensate forlost stakes if the horse is a big price and is placed.

I would lean towards a 2% of bank stake, or froman each way perspective 1% each way. There are dayswith many losers, BUT there are days with numerouswinners and placed horses. This system is not thefinalised version by any stretch. I think there isanalysis that can be made into field size as it relates totipsters selections, and in races where the tipsters haveoverwhelmingly gone for a single horse. Race type, Isuppose can also play a part, and I mention races suchas handicaps which are generally open ended affairs,and also races where the market is the key indetermining the strong horses – eg maiden races,national hunt flat races, maiden hurdles. Tipsters arepretty much taking a stab in the dark with these racetypes.

To our advantage we have the fact that theseselected tipsters have to pick a selection in every race,and they get it wrong more than they get it right, andcan miss out on some juicily priced horses. We alsohave on our side the betting forecaster’s opinion. Ihave mentioned in the past that the betting forecastercan be extremely accurate in his tissue pricing, so if hehas a horse near the head of the market that thesetipsters may have missed, we can assume it is near thehead of the market for a reason!

Results are not definitive yet, as I have only beenfollowing this system since the turn of the year. Therewill be losing days, but there will be days like these

30th January – 21 bets. Winners at 6/1, 20/1, 7/1, 11/1

31st January – 6 bets – Winner at 4/1, 3 2nd placedhorses at 14/1, 10/1, 6/1

27th February – 20 bets – Winners at 5/1, 9/1, 7/1,10/1. 3 3rd places at 10/3, 8/1, 8/1

28th February – 17 bets – Winners at 6/1, 11/1, 8/1,16/1, 3 2nd places at 14/1, 9/1, 9/2, 23rd places at 14/1, 8/1

Yes I know the 28th February looks like somethingsome moronic glossy brochure scamster would put upin his made up results for his guaranteed £8 million permonth for only £ 39 trial price BUT these winnersreally did happen!

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A word of cautionYes, it’s early days but I had to share this with you.

How will it work over the long term? Alas, I can’tforetell the future. Will it be effective on the flat?Again I don’t know. What I do know is it’s worthmonitoring. I know there are some great analysts andstatisticians and form readers amongst the readershipwho can perhaps streamline the selections by race type/distance/number of runners or any other factors, but Iam definitely keeping an eye and recording dailyselections. When I first saw the big priced winners, Ithought it was a one off, but having witnessed the oddcracking day at 20/1+ prices (biggest 25/1) I nowknow there may be some legs in this ex-lay system.

Let me know if you can improve upon it. I’d beinterested to hear from you.

System Review: The Racing Secret

Why This BetfairCalculator Doesn’t QuiteMatch The Hype

When I heard that www.theracingsecrets.com haveapparently stumbled across the secret which will

“rock betfair in 2007”, I had to check it out. So howdoes it perform?

The principle behind this calculator is to track thelate money in Betfair’s horse racing market and using asimple formula, back (preferably for the place) and laydepending on the weight of money and how it’saffected the odds of certain horses.

I must applaud them on the concept which issuperb, but the principle was touched on by me manymoons ago in a previous issue of What Really WinsMoney when I focussed on the various markets andhow we can spot potential market movers and stablegambles.

To refresh you, I focussed on the relationshipbetween the betting forecast in the Racing Post and thebookmaker’s live market, in what I called the 16/1System which has proved very effective in highlightingpotentially big priced gambled on horses – horseswhich the everyday punter cannot see by simplylooking at the live market.

I also focussed on the Tote, independently priced,and how we could spot the late money for certainhorses and exploit that, and I also focussed on theBetfair market. If you recall, I managed to spot a 100/12nd place which paid out superbly for the place and aseries of other shorter odds, relatively speaking, where

the price movements just before the off highlighted apotentially well fancied horse and some “clevermoney”.

So, no, Mr Racing Secrets, this is not a new conceptat all! And no, like your email copy hints at, Betfair isnot trying to ban your calculator. This claim is highlymisleading and a porky pie – why would a commissionbased exchange want to ban something whichgenerates them commission? This is the writing of anover imaginative copy writer.

Now let’s take a look at the calculatoritself . . .

First, I must point out that this package will serveno real purpose for anyone who is unable to follow thelive betting market race by race. Tracking the livemarket is a prerequisite.

The method behind the calculator is soundly basedand makes good sense. Having looked at the Betfairmarket over time, there are some serious market movesfor individual horses, both on the back and the lay sideie some horses’ prices shorten considerably before theoff, while others drift like there’s just been a jockeychange and Rik Waller is on board.

Backing and laying these horses willy-nilly isperhaps not the ideal, and is where there has beensome thought behind the formula used in thecalculator. They have rightly accounted for horses’market share. What do I mean?

Well, remember dutching, where we can back morethan one horse in a race as long as the odds of eachhorse, when translated to percentages, do not exceed100%. This calculator accounts for the percentage ofthe market that particular horses take up. Eg a horse at4/6 takes up 60% of the market, while a horse at 4/1takes up 20% of the market.

If followed to the letter, then there are opportunitieswhich the calculator throws up, and from my limitedexperience with the calculator, I would suspect that thegreater profit would accrue on the lay side, as theyadvocate, or suggest a preference for, backing in theplace-only market.

Is it worth the £47? Will it make you“tons of profit” as claimed?

The jury’s still out I’m afraid. There have beenraces where they have successfully highlighted decentenough priced winners, and some of the lays have lost,but then again, some of the lays have won. They doadvocate focussing on races of 10 runners or less, BUTin my experience, some of the greatest gambles canappear in big fields. I will continue to track because

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the racing secret calculator takes an interesting slant ongambles just before the off, but I’ve noticed that someof the horses the calculator flags up, I have alreadyrecognised by simply using Fairbot’s price graphs.

The calculator also misses out on the in-runningmarket. Only just recently, on Sunday 18th March, Inoticed something which stood out in the 340 Carlisle.The race had gone in-running, and there was suddenly£1,000 waiting to back a horse called Carapuce at oddsof 25 – hmmmm time to call in Miss Marple! Thisstake stood out in the in running market for thisaverage Class 4 Handicap Hurdle over 3 miles. Ishould have taken the hint. Carapuce won at odds of16/1. Coincidence? I don’t think so. Clever money?Most definitely!

Bottom lineThis calculator is of interest, and NO, Betfair are

not tying to ban it (naughty copywriter!) If you are soinclined, a look for unusual stakes just before the offwaiting to be matched in the back market, or even,unusual stakes waiting to be matched in the newlyformed in running market, can hint at potential clevermoney waiting to be matched on a well fancied horse.It may be worth following that money.

For those of you who have Fairbot, you will see theefficacy of the Price Graphs and their ability to trackhow the odds have shifted for the horses, including theperceived outsiders. You can do no worse than rereadmy betting markets article for the general principlesbehind tracking the market moves.

I will not dismiss this calculator out of handbecause I believe, in the right races, it will work, andwork well. I need a sustained period of about a monthusing the calculator on all qualifying races before I candetermine any profit potential, but ready preference forme is in Fairbot’s graph, and my old method ofcomparing prices 10 minutes before the off, to thosejust before the off and backing any significantmovements each way, especially concerning theoutsiders, without restricting myself to field size.

System Review: Raj Patel

Could This be The BigBreakthrough in FootballTrading We’ve All BeenWaiting For?

You can’t have failed but notice that Raj “I was onthe telly you know” Patel has launched yet

another product, and this time he has turned hisattention onto soccer, in particular in-running tradingof live in-play matches on Betfair.

The first thing that strikes me is the price – £200!Ouch! But, will the potential profits that are promisedreturn this outlay and leave us in profit?

Football trading – a quick refresherThe key to football trading, as with any trading on

the betting exchanges is to use a derivative of thefinancial markets’ concept of buy low and sell high.

So how do we do that?

Prices are reactive. A recent and simplistic exampleis that of Kauto Star in the Gold Cup. The horse’s oddsstarted at 7/4 but weight of confidence and moneybrought the odds down to 5/4.

How is this relevant to football prices? Well, if thegame can be bet in running, there are a number ofevents which will affect the price. I bet you can name afew – a goal scored will change the odds as the marketexpects the team who have scored to be in with a betterchance of winning. The odds here will fall. The teamwho has had a goal scored against them are deemed bythe market to be in with a more difficult chance ofwinning their game – why? They now need to score 2goals to win. The odds therefore will drift out.

We have a third option here – the draw. If no goalsare scored, or if it LOOKS as if there will be no goalsscored, the odds for the draw will shorten as the gameprogresses.

If a player is sent off, the market will deem thatteam less likely to win with 10 men.

Back and layThe key to making trading work is to trade these

reactive price changes between the lay and the backmarkets in live football games, once something hashappened in that game (usually a goal) to change thedynamics of the game.And iIt is this difference in theprices that Raj Patel’s system seeks to exploit.

There are a variety of methods of trading footballmatches in the traditional match odds market

• Back a short priced favourite before the game andtrade when (hopefully) they score first

• Back the draw in the hope the game will be verytight.

• Lay the outsider and back said outsider once,hopefully, the strong team scores first.

The key word here is “hopefully” and this is whereRaj Patel’s method proves strong.

Football can be an unpredictable sport at the best of

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times, and can lead the backer to get out the swear boxwhen the team he/she’s chosen to back just can’t seemto find the net to give them some respite, especiallywhen they were looking to trade once a goal hasscored.

So what’s involved?Well I must admit that I’d heard of Raj Patel’s

methods, or a variation at least, and it is by no meansunique. To give you a clue, it is pretty much theopposite of my first trading example above. Raj hasincluded some pricing criteria and a suggested targetprofit to aim for. It is a very simplistic system withonly 2 or 3 rules to stick to.

I have monitored the system over a variety ofgames both domestically and world wide, and there areinstances where, although the final score may havebeen 4-0, and we LAID the winning side, we stillprofited (Espanyol v Maccaibi Haifa in the Europeangames mid week). I must admit to being surprised bythe amount of opportunities and the performance of thesystem. It really goes to show that you can’t rely on thefavourites all of the time, and football can throw upsome anomalous results – the more of a shock theresult, the better for the system.

One of the keys to the system is the time taken forgoals to be scored. The longer the time taken, thequicker we can realise our target profit. Another key tothe system would seem to be the price bands at whichwe lay. I think Raj has correctly identified the correctprice bracket for favourites where we should be laying,because things are not cut and dried with these oddsand there is a good chance of a profit.

Bottom lineThis has the potential to be a good workable system

long term. It is very simple to follow and the targetprofit perspective can allow us to watch our bettingbank. The price is off-putting at £200, but whiletrialling the system, it has brought up some goodresults. There have been a couple of loss games andthese blows can be softened by our ability to trade.

I want a more sustained run with the system, havingonly just received it, and will continue to monitor. I amhopeful that the system can continue to produce overthe longer term. It is a lot safer that the lay the drawsystem that has graced us betfairians for a few years(and continues to be sold – BUT don’t buy it!). Ourability to use this system in European and domesticgames is a bonus, and there is no need for formresearch or pouring over stats – it’s all in the prices!

Personally, I am in the process of writing a footballtrading article with all the bells and whistles and have

included my own variation of this method that I havebeen using for some time especially with theunpredictable Greek superpowers of Panathnaikos andOlympiakos, so if you want to hold out until then, thenyour patience will be rewarded!

Available at http://www.soccer-revolution.com/ for£197, this system has potential. I will be focussing onas many opportunities as I can as we come to seasonend, so can inform you either via this newsletter or mysoccer blog athttp://soccerbettingmoneymaker.blogspot.com/ .

TIP – because of the simple rules involved, Isuspect buyers of this system may try to offload it oncethey have memorised the simple instructions. So thoseaverse to forking out £200 could wait until themarketing for the system has died down and perhapslook on Ebay – you might be able to get it verycheaply. Alternatively, keep an eye on the soccer forumon Betfair – you never know, you might be able to findout the essence of the system there ( as has happenedwith the Football Cash Generator, which became easilyavailable after enough people had bought it at fullprice).

A contact has informed me that the method RajPatel has can be found as part of the contents of themanual at http://www.footballtradingprofits.com/ for£57, so please bear that in mind.

Flat Season Alert!

Watch Out For These SixIrish HeavyweightTrainer-Jockey Teams inComing Flat Season

With the flat season approaching, there will beample opportunity for the backer and the layer! toexploit the myriad races that appear – and none moreso than the 2 year old debutant maiden races that willlitter race cards in the coming months. Would you backa short priced favourite who has never run on a racetrack before, against 14 other runners, based solely onreputation of jockey and trainer? Thought not! BUTthere may be an exception to this, and we have to getover to Ireland . . .

Powerful Irish stables = consistency =profit!

The big stable operations in Ireland can be reliedupon, historically, to produce the goods on a consistentlevel throughout the coming flat season. The one you

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may already be familiar with, is the Ballydoyleoperation, run by the imperious Aiden O’Brien, and exemployer of naughty boy, but talented jockey, KeirenFallon. This combination will now change as the 2007season unfurls, so pay close attention to racesinvolving Aiden O’Brien trained horses riddenspecifically by Jamie Heffernan, especially if theyoccupy the first 4 in the betting in a traditional 8-16runner race.

Readers of my backing blog will remember the daywhen I bagged a 25/1 winner and a 12/1 winner on thesame day. These winners had the same characteristic –Aiden O’Brien trained the horses!

I have even advocated previously to just back blindany Aiden O’Brien horses, because along the way therewill be some juicy prices (preference over 5/1 for eachway betting). The Ballydoyle stable is predominantly abreeding operation, and the value of horses at stud isdetermined by their win ratio and the prestige of raceswon. Better to have a 2 year old with a CV that reads“won first 1st time out” than a horse who has taken 5or 6 races before notching a winner.

What to look for?In the upcoming season, pay particular attention to

Aiden O’Brien 2 year olds who are having their 2ndrun AFTER losing their first race, and who appear atthe head of the market. Last year Aiden O Brien horsesinvariably improved for their 2nd runs, and wonquickly if they lost their debut race.

Pay particular attention if any Aiden O’Brien horsesare backed strongly in the market – regardless of theirprices.

Other jockey/trainer combinationsworth following . . .

So we have established that Aidan O’Brien andJamie Heffernan are worth following in the upcomingIrish Flat Season but there are also some other lethaland well established jockey/trainer combinations worthkeeping an eye on.

Prendergast/McDonoughOxx/KinaneWeld/SmullenWachman/LordonManning/Bolger

All of the above tend to dominate and the ideal wayto chose which of the above to back will be the marketconfidence behind their rides, especially in theaforementioned maiden races where there will be little,if any, established form.

The each-way optionIf the opportunity arises to back any of the above

each way (if odds are 4/1 or over) it should be taken,particularly if the horse is not deemed an outsider butis priced to be competitive – eg 7/1 – 10/1. Mypreferred combination of jockey trainer are DermotWeld and Pat Smullen, John Oxx and Mick Kinane andAidan O’Brien and Jamie Heffernan.

Bottom lineThe flat season will soon start and I wanted to give

you prior warning of the potential that the seasonacross the water can provide. I will, of course, beavailing myself of the opportunities which arise, andyou can follow my progress on my backing blog athttp://clivekeeling.spaces.live.com. I love these Irishflat seasons and have consistently profited from myIrish flat forays. A lot easier than the 100 runnermaiden hurdles that have littered this past Irish jumpsseason!

ResourcesThe Racing Post can provide some pointers for you

in the upcoming season, but ready preference is forwww.irish-racing.com. This is a great site to have inyour armoury when tackling the Irish flat season. Lookout for the Whispers section (use it as a confidencebooster to any selections rather as an out and outtipping service – we all know how bad the journotipsters are!) and the Aiden O’Brien watch that willdoubtless appear come the flat season.

Systems & TipsterUpdatewww.mathematician-betting.co.uk

Once again, I have difficulty in characterising thisservice as just a tipster as it offers far more than that.The detail that goes into each email is to becommended, but I will back what I said last time – Idon’t know how to best utilise the information for myfinancial reward when there is no account bet.Instinctively, I would tend towards the strong bets andnaps, and statistical certainties, BUT then I’d bemissing winners such as Bronson Fsure at 10/1 on 15thMarch, Cloudy Lane 1st at 15/2, Cork All Star, head onthe ground.

The work done is superb but how to tackleinformation such as the 8th March when I was offereda shortlist of 7 selections for the 240 Wincanton – allof which lost incidentally.

All in all, I think form afficionados would love this

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service. It is presented thoroughly each day and isdetailed with a heavy bet towards statistics. Theservice for Cheltenham week was very good indeed.

The account bets have been few – Arcalis was a winonly bet, but didn’t oblige, Distant Thunder came 3rdat 7/1, and there was a nice winning each way doubleon 28th February, 2 account bets on 24th Februaryboth lost. As I said, the service is more than just theaccount bets, and is a good daily read although I ampersonally finding difficulty in cultivating the dailybets from all advice given. Available for £49.99monthly.

The Legacy and Saver SystemsThere have only been a handful of qualifying

Legacy bets recently (if we stick rigidly to not bettingunder evens as advised) and these have lost. This is notof any great concern. As the authors rightly state intheir correspondence, favourite based systems havegenerally had a torrid winter, and I suspect the legacy’sstrict criteria, resulting in fewer bets, has not impactedtoo greatly. The Legacy, historically, has shown its ownin the flat, so I look forward to that

The Saver has continued consistency and hasbrought a steady flow of winners, some at reasonableprices such as 3/1 and 5/2. Unlike the system sellers, Iwill happily back all saver selections – even belowevens. I am growing more confident in The Saver’sability to continuously provide me with winners andsee this system as very much a standalone backingsystem for my portfolio. As mentioned last newsletter,the low losing runs make it perfect for the Safebet planwhich provides me with a good profit, out-gunninglevel stakes.

Results to dream ofA bout of recent seconditis has proved frustrating,

although I still note that, with selections pricedbetween evens and 2/1, losing runs are small, thuscatering well for progressive staking, amongst otherstaking plans.

As an aside, AD Associates have come up withanother blockbuster to match their football systemwhich, er, didn’t, er, make any money at all! This timethey have come up with The Polar Bet, which mycontacts tell me, is the same as the above results todream of system. They have even included progressivestaking (first mentioned by me in January 2006).Please be aware of this because the glossy brochuresare certainly alluring. David Clapp is following this up(the originator of the results to dream of system).

The FoundationResults since 19th Feb when we last “met up” are

unconvincing from a level stakes and a 10% of bettingbank perspective. I tried it through the safebet plan andthis showed a marginal loss to standard settings. Thefact that losing runs are low wasn’t factored in, so I putin a longest losing run scenario of 3, and it is herewhere the profit arrives for the period from 19th Feb.Even with the rubbish prices at times, a 10% return forthe period from 19th Feb could have accrued. Thelongest losing run was 2, which is ideal and allows forlarger than normal stakes (if we can maintainconfidence in the losing runs staying low). Now thissystem still profits long term using my tester’s criteriaof betting 10% of betting bank on only 4/6 or greater.This is the avenue I think I’ll pursue along with thestandard methods. This system is not for those seekingvalue prices. The odds don’t lend themselves toprofitable level stakes betting at all. As I keep saying,the flat season is upon us shortly so I hope that softground will become less of a concern and the losingruns can stay small to allow for larger stakes.

Melchior pirateThis has hit its targets most days, after a losing run

of 4 (equalling 36 points) mid February. Transition tothe flat will be interesting.

The 60% SystemWorryingly my 60% selections differ from those

found on their official results spreadsheet! The longestlosing run is 3 with the system I am using, but theprofits haven’t come using 1/20th bank and 1 and 2points as advised. It just hasn’t got going and a profitof £64 to £1,000 bank leaves me asking – what’s thepoint over such a large period? Again, utilising the safebet plan, and perhaps trying to exploit the fact that thelongest losing run of 3 can remain at that level, we canincrease stakes in anticipation of getting a winner after2 consecutive losers. The £1,000 bank transforms to£1,635 with the highest stake being £295 when thebank stood at £1,500. I like this risk, and as I’ve saidpreviously, I like the version of 60% system that I use(although I’m flummoxed as to where I am differingfrom the official bods.) Both The Foundation and The60% Systems are available fromwww.sportsworldpublishing.com for £95.

5startipster.co.ukTo remind you, this is a progressive staking tipster,

and since last issue, there have been winners daily,apart from the 15th March which was horrendous –with 11 losers! I have spoken previously about gearingas it relates to progressive staking, and it was used well

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on this day. Despite 11 bets, there was breathing spacefor 2-3 more bets the next day. The winner was hit inthe 2nd race. I must admit though, that 11 losers on thetrot can lead to great worry, so progressive staking isnot for everyone. It would be great if the winners couldbe more evenly spread – ie there’s 6 one day and 1 thenext. I know this is idealistic and they have to work tothe day’s racing. 5startipster have informed me thatthey are currently “offering a 10 day FREE trial, asopposed to my 5 day normal trial. The 10 free trial willinclude everyday of the week, including weekends. Iwill also agree to pay £40 to every member if they donot make money during the free trial with us. They willalso get the latest copy of my software FREE as well.They will also get a copy of my 5 Star Basic systemwhich is similar to CashMaster.”

The link is: http://bounceurl.com/wp2smy6

So if you want a free trial, click away!

www.winintennis.co.ukCame back from their holiday with a run of 5 winners

at 1.42, 1.22, 1.46, 1.25, and 1.46 which ended withHewitt losing at 1.22 on 11 March. Since then, anotherwinner at 1.33, a loser at 5, and 2 consecutive winners at1.54 and 1.72 resulting in a good profit for that period.Because of the small prices and compounding there is anelement of 2 steps back and one step forward but I guessthis is compounding. When you win, profits increase asstakes increase, but with such small odds, at times, itwould take a losing run of 3 or 4 to undo the hard gainedprevious winnings. It would seem that the holiday hasworked at present and I look forward to more profits forthe service in the coming month to match the gains overthe last month. Again I must stress that this is no get richquick scheme so those who wish to participate must havea long-term perspective and be prepared for attendantshort-term losses.

www.laycrazy.comA far more encouraging month – well February was

an absolute disaster, and we’re riding a run of 18consecutive losing lays after a period of 5 winners in11. Far better, and I’m glad to report there’s noborderline selections open to misinterpretation onresults tables.

I am currently monitoring www.ex-jockey.com’s layservice and the lay service of Kenneth Wilson atwww.kenneth-j-wilson-racingservices.co.uk/. Both ofthese services are generally one a day lay services, andbecause of the many no bet days lately from bothservice, I cannot give an honest opinion, but willmonitor continuously.

www.laytoprofit.comI continue to have great confidence in this system

and my confidence is reflected in the fact that I pursuea quite aggressive staking plan. Bear in mind I onlystarted with £100 (which, if you wanted to play safe,you would withdraw once the bank has doubled toensure a no lose situation) the bank currently stands at£675.32. So what do I do? Well, for every £50 profit Iadd £2.50 to the stake, AND I keep at the same stakeseven if I hit a loser (eg the horse wins its race). The 5thand 6th March tested my confidence in the system as itproduced 3 winners which brought a £626 bankcrashing to £398, yet I kept stakes at £25 – 10 loserson the trot quickly restored the bank. The ideal with astrategy of this nature would be to withdraw yourinitial seed money so you are not playing with yourhard earned anymore so fluctuations in the bettingbank can be approached from a different mentality.

I only use this strategy because I have confidence inthe long-term performance to date. For £47, this hasproved money well spent.

www.laywhisperer.comI have been trialling this since late January, and to

£100 bank, the bank stands at £122, from a high of £249,which was decimated by a 10/1 winner. I have keptstrictly to the advised 8% of bank as stake, even whenthe bank dipped below £100. At least we are showing aprofit and the bank has never threatened to be decimatedat any time. I’ll continue to monitor. It is a logical systemfocussing on horses coming back from a long layoff.

The Bill Clarke MasterplanA case of giving with one hand and taking with the

other for this plan. Since I last updated you, winners at3/1, 10/1, 7/2, 9/2 and 3/1 have helped boost the bank.Some of the winners were negated by unplaced horsesif operating to each way level stakes. A slight loss tothe month but, again, this plan, the creator states, ispredominantly for the flat season. Considering at onepoint we were operating at a 50-point loss, the small 7-point profit should be put into this context. The systemis very reliant on the occasional big price, as manyeach way systems are.

www.winningracingtips.co.ukAnother profit in February for this uncomplicated

and personal service from Paul Ruffy. It’s nice to findthese genuine tipsters. A slow and steady profit usingthe each way philosophy with the odd foray intofootball. Long term is the focus here which is what Ilike to see. 1 Month £34.95, 3 Months £88.95(£29.65/month) and 6 Months £149.95 (£24.99/month)

8


Handicap PowerThanks must go to those of you who have acted as

testers for this system, and the general consensus atpresent is that we’ve found a cracking lay system. Theonly problem being this is sold as a backing system!Performance has been terrible of late. Latest figures showa near 60-point loss in 3 weeks. A number of differenttesters have independently shown the same results, so Icannot agree with the published results by the systemsellers at this moment in time. These testers cannot all bemisinterpreting the instructions so I am confident thattheir findings ring true. Monitoring will continue (that’sif the testers haven’t given up the ghost already!) Thissystem is produced by MD Professional and sells for£35. One to avoid at the moment I would suggest.

NewbiesI’ve got my hands on The Pinnacle System, and

details of Tony Gibson’s Market Mover System whichI am keen to try out. I’ll keep you informed. If there areany readers out there lucky enough to be in a position tofollow Betfair’s live horse racing market, and willing toprovide me with some feedback, then please email me [email protected] because as you canappreciate, it is not possible for me to track multiple livebetting systems at one time, at least without losing mymarbles! Your help and feedback will help others, andyou’ll have a system to boot!

Systems on my radar but not currentlyfor sale

There is one standout system, mentioned in lastmonth’s WRWM which is still profiting if used inconjunction with the Safebet plan (I’m afraid I have anerror with my staking machine so have been unable totake these systems through other traditional stakingplans – this will be rectified).

It is the system that involves choosing the shortestpriced horse at evens or above in the betting forecastacross all meetings. This is a one a day system and issimple to operate and has been very effective over asustained period. The hope is that this continues intothe flat season, but please do search it out fromFebruary’s newsletter because it’s GRATIS and it’sWORKABLE. To £1,000 bank, the bank is now£1,296. Changing the curvature (projected maximumlosing run) to 8 bumps, profits to £1,519. I feelconfident that this system can continue to profit as ithas. The only outlay need be the safebetplan which ischeaper than many racing systems out there!

Racing Information DatabaseThe majority of tipsters this past month have posted

losses with no real stand out performers. Some of the

well-known names such as Henry Rix, Alex Gorrie,Ashley Carr, Nick Mordin are all running at a loss forthe year. I will be focussing on some tipstersindependently over the coming month to report on theirprogress – both backers and layers.

A word of warning!I just received an email from a single mother you

was duped out of £1,000 by Johnathan Wells. She wasasked to place bets on his behalf on horses which(clears throat) were nailed on! Needless to say they alllost, and she was promised her stake back if they lost.Now she is unable to contact him at all, and has verylittle chance of returning the £1,000. There is a lessonhere – do not place bets on behalf of so called tipsters– you take all of the risk – they take the profit if itwins! Remember at all times, that this is anunregulated industry and there is no FSA to helpregulate the more unscrupulous folk. Please NEVERenter into these placing bets arrangements – ever!

This single mother cannot afford to lose £1,000, andyes, she should have been less naïve, but this is not thefirst time I have been sent an email recounting thesame story and it won’t be the last. Services such asThe Millennium Club who ask for your money andpromise to give you a monthly return must be treatedwith equal caution. Always doyour due diligence asyou would in any other area of your financial life, andnever let basic common sense fly out of the window!Lecture over!

The Patriarch Presents . . .

Let’s have a bit of fun!Why you shouldn’tdismiss the NationalLottery as a genuinebetting opportunity

Ihaven’t gone completely mad, but I’m going tosuggest a bet on the National Lottery. Now, I know

that the odds of landing the jackpot are around 14million to 1 (you are more likely to be struck bylightning), but you can still have a worthwhile betwithout winning the jackpot. And there are otherconsiderations too. First, although nobody likes losinga bet, at least with the National Lottery you know thatalmost one third of your losing stake is going to a goodcause. That, for me, is some consolation. I’m alsogoing to recommend bets on lotteries other than themain National Lottery.

9please turn over


Let’s start with the National Lottery Obviously we can increase our chances of winning

by covering more than just 6 numbers. Let’s take 16,just about one third of the total of 49. A full perm of 6from 16 is not really practical as it would take over8,000 lines to guarantee a jackpot if you have the 6winning balls in your 16 numbers. But covering thesesame 16 numbers and having the 6 winning balls, howmany lines would it take to make sure that you won atleast £10 pounds? The answer might surprise you. Not8,000, but 5 only. Yes, just 5, but you have to knowhow to arrange your 16 numbers in these 5 lines. I’llshow you how in a moment. What I can’t show you,and nobody can, is what numbers to choose. But I canmake some suggestions. However many numbers youare choosing, whether it is 6, 16 or more – make sureof this: do not have all even or all odd numbers, but abalanced mixture of the two. With 6 numbers I’d have3 even and 3 odd or 4 and 2 either way. But not 5 and1. With 16 numbers I’d choose 8 and 8, 9 and 7 or 10and 6. But no further imbalance. If you take a look atrecent results you won’t find any occasion where the 6numbers were all even or all odd. Also, spread yournumbers over the full 49. If you take 1 to 25 as onegroup and 26 to 49 as the other, you will not find arecent example of all six balls being in one of thegroups. So, once again spread your numbers over thetwo groups in a balanced way.

Now for our 16 number plan with the 5-lineguarantee of a win. First, write out in a line the first 16letters of the alphabet thus –

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P

and then under each letter put your chosen 16numbers, preferably using my suggestions givenabove. Also, don’t put your numbers in order, butarrange them randomly. Here’s my example using myown 16 numbers:

2,3,7,9,13,16,17,25,28,30,37,38,40,42,45 and 46.

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P

3 42 9 46 25 28 7 30 13 40 16 45 2 37 17 38.You will note my balanced mixture of odd and evenand also, high and low.

Here is the crucial part. The five lines are arrangedas follows. You must stick to this pattern.

Line 1 A B C D E F

Line 2 A B G H I J

Line 3 C D G H I J

Line 4 E F G H I J

Line 5 K L M N O P

You now enter the corresponding numbers for theletters, so the lines become: -

Line 1 3 42 9 46 25 28

Line 2 3 42 7 30 13 40

Line 3 9 46 7 30 13 40

Line 4 25 28 7 30 13 40

Line 5 16 45 2 37 17 38

You will see how each line is well balancedbetween odd and even, and high and low. You can alsotest to see that if you have 6 winning numbers amongthe 16 you will have at least one line containing 3.There may be more than one line of 3, or a line of 4 or5 – or even all 6. And all that in an entry of only 5lines.

Another thing. Consecutive numbers occur quitefrequently in the Lottery draw and you will see that Ihave catered for this too with 2 and 3, 16 and 17, 37and 38, 45 and 46.

And one last thing to consider. You may choose togo for ‘Hot’ numbers or ‘Cold’ ones – or even a mix ofthe two. ‘Hot’ numbers are the ones that have turnedup most often in recent draws and ‘Cold’ ones arethose that have been reluctant to make an appearance.You can find the information in betting magazines oreven in the record of draws on teletext. Personally, I’dconcentrate on the ‘Hot’ ones with just a sprinkling ofthe ‘Cold’ variety.

There are other lotteries beside theNational, and with their choice andvariety of odds offered they are worthconsidering for a bet . . .

Take the Irish Lotto, for example, available inbookmakers everywhere. In it there are only 45numbers to pick from and you can select from 1 up to5 numbers with guaranteed odds for each. Also, youcan use a unit stake starting at 5p and going up to 20pounds. In the 6 Ball draw the odds are 11-2 for asingle number, 52-1 for 2 and 575-1 for 3. If you aremore ambitious it’s 6,500-1 for 4 and 100,000-1 for 5.With the wide choice of odds and unit stakes all kindsof plans and permutations are possible. I’d be inclinedto recommend a Patent bet – that is, select 3 numbersfrom the 45, using whatever method you prefer. Thenthe Patent bet backs 3 singles, 3 doubles and 1 treble, atotal of 7 bets at whatever unit you wish, from 5p to 20pounds. With only one number appearing in the 6 Balldraw you’ve lost just half of 1 unit staked. With 2numbers in the draw you’ve won on 2 singles and 1double giving a profit of 59 times your unit staked.And with 3 numbers from the six balls all bets are up

10


11please turn over

and a very acceptable gain of 747.5 times your unitstake.

Or you might prefer the Trixie bet, again choosing 3numbers, but this time only 4 bets, exactly the same asthe Patent but minus the 3 singles. You have morechoice too in the number of draws, with 3 on aWednesday night and 3 on a Saturday night.

Rather similar to the Irish Lotto is the bookmakers’49’s Draw, which is drawn daily. As its name suggestswe are back to 49 numbers with this draw, and so theodds are slightly bigger than in the Irish Lotto.

A single number pays 6-1, a double 53-1, the treble600-1, four correct is 8,000-1 and 5 is 150,000-1.Stakes offer the same choice as in the Irish one soagain I’d suggest the Patent or the Trixie as a goodbalanced bet for a possible very worthwhile return.

Greyhound System Revealed

How to Use SectionalTimes to Boost YourGreyhoud Returns

I was first introduced to the concept of greyhoundsectional times and their importance to predictingpotential winners through www.bagsbeater.co.uk. Butbefore I detail the existing services on the market . . .

What is Sectional Timing?

The typical greyhound card as found at the racingpost’s website will show the sectional times in the 3rdcolumn from the left. With the above dog, DunbolgGenghis, his sectional times will be found in the 3rdcolumn from the left – with the figures 2.48 , 4.04,2.38, and 6.64.

The sectional times of each dog representessentially their ability to get out of the traps quick andreach the first bend. The greyhound “urban myth” isthat 63% of dogs who are first at the first bend go onto win their races. Now it would take me a lifetime andthe arms of 10 octopusses to verify this 63% statistic,but during my trial I found that this sectional timingmethod of creating selections has real potential. Withselections predominantly over evens a strike rate ofless than 50% will suffice, with some winners as big as 8/1.

How can we uncover potential winners?We can use the Racing Post online or off line, by

going to the greyhound form sections. Firstly, we needto calculate the average sectional time – which is thetime found in the 3rd column from the left. In thisexample, Micks Ashdown’s times show 3.78, 14.82,14.84, 3.89 and 3.86. NOTE, the 14.82 and 14.84 arefor different distances, and so must be discounted fromcalculations.

Trap 1 – 3.84

Trap 2 – 3.86

Trap 3 – 3.79

Trap 4 – 3.84

Trap 5 – 3.83

Trap 6 – 3.80

Trap 3 has the shortest price at 3.79 with trap 2 thetardiest. Again, ready preference is for a moresubstantial price discrepancy.

the first 3 are trap 3 then 6 then 5.

This is the most basic method of uncoveringpotential bets – as you can see the odds are veryrespectable and a high % strike rate is not a necessity.

Can any systems on the market help us?I have already spoken about the bagsbeater software

at www.bagsbeater.co.uk. This software acts as arepresentative tool to show you a visualisation of howthe dogs will ideally reach the first bend.

The visual representation confirms my suspicionsregarding the closeness of the dogs, and the fact that


12

traps 3 and 6 stand out (ish!) From a personalperspective I would prefer a larger distance between,say trap 1 and the rest of the field to make it a rocksolid bet. Bagsbeater is by no means a “MUST HAVE”as you can calculate the averages and make aninformed decision regarding which traps (or trap) toback based solely on the prices. The visualrepresentation offered by bagsbeater does aid though.

What about Dutching?As I have mentioned before, the price market on

Betfair especially is a backer’s market, meaning thatthe value is in backing and not laying. This is simplydue to the lack of market forces and liquidity ascompared to say, UK horse racing in the afternoons.With the above race,we are in a position to back traps3 and 6 most certainly, probably followed by eithertraps 5 and 1. (NOTE – THIS RACE IS PROBABLYTOO CLOSE TOGETHER TO GIVE A CONFIDENTSELECTION)

How to use sectional timing for laying There are services out there in the market place that

use sectional timing for laying purposes. As you knowby now, the value, certainly on Betfair, lies with thebacker. The layer will be laying at inflated prices inpretty much all races. Stakes will also be limited towhat’s available in the market, which may not be muchdepending on the liquidity in the market place –liquidity in the greyhound market on Betfair is not ascompetitive as we would like.

These 2 gripes aside, the folks atwww.greyhoundtipster.com claim to be able to makeconsistent profits with their service and sectionaltiming software.

I have asked for, and received a trial included use oftheir software and will be reporting intermittently onthis in coming eletters and newsletters – I havereceived it too late to have reviewed and set up thesoftware to enable a proper analysis of its merits to bemade. They certainly boast impressive lay results but Iwould prefer to see the results personally beforerecommending this service.

NEW! How to Turn YourDigital Camera Into aMoney-Spinner!

Next time you visit a racecourse, make sure youtake your digital camera with you – you could just

end up making a few extra quid! You see, you don’thave to be a professional photographer to make goodmoney from taking snaps. In fact with digital camerasand the Internet there are scores of great opportunitiesopen to you right now. Even if you never go near arace course you could be creating and selling your picson online stock photo libraries, turning them intoscreensavers, making photo inventories for insurancecompanies, creating house tours for estate agents oreven joining the ranks of the amateur paparazzi!

I’ve just come across a new report from NickLaight of Canonbury Publishing that uncovers theopportunities open to anyone with a cheapo digitalcamera. Please take a look at the enclosed informationwith this month’s issue for full details. Highlyrecommended!

It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot beheld responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever. What Really Wins Money is sold on

this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,

Subscription Office, Unit 1, Hainault Works, Hainault Road, Little Heath, Romford, RM6 5SS.Tel: 0208 597 0181 Fax: 0208 597 4040.Registered office: Canonbury Publishing Ltd. Curzon House, 24 High Street, Banstead, Surrey, SM7 2LJ.

Registered in England No. 4765425 Vat Reg No. 811 5700 64 © Copyright What Really Wins Money 2007


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An Independent review of tipsters and betting systems...Hi Another Cheltenham festival has been and gone, heralding the end of the jumps season and the start of the flat. I'm certainly