An evaluation of the responses to the 2016

Kaikōura earthquake

Vivienne Ivory, Opus Research, Opus

International Consultants Ltd

A collaboration to evaluate, learn, & monitor

Liam Wotherspoon, Seosamh Costello, Mohammad Aghababaei: University of AucklandJoanne Stevenson: Resilient OrganisationsVivienne Ivory, Maggie Trotter: Opus International ConsultantsThomas Wilson, Alistair Davies: University of CanterburyGarry McDonald: Market Economics

Shelley Tucker, Roger Fairclough, Nick Paterson, Geoff Parr, Aidan Smith, Tim Herbert: Ministry of Transport

Disruption to moving people & goods

Disruption decisions

Davies et al. (2017)Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 50, No. 2, June 2017

Transport infrastructure performance and management in the South Island of New Zealand, during the first 100 days following the 2016 Mw 7.8 “Kaikōura” earthquake

PINCHPOINTS:

SH6 section of SH1 diversion

and the MNL have zero

redundancy (in the past 5

months, state highways and

railways have been closed by

earthquakes, landslides, rural

fires and flooding).

NETWORK LIMITATIONS:

Pre-disaster resilience works

could have decreased SH1

diversion disruption and

improved air travel into

Kaikōura.

RECOVERY PLANNING

Pre-established stakeholder

relationships could have

improved response and public

messaging.

COMMUNITY

PREPAREDNESS

Towns without road access

for 15 days.

Preventative mitigation

lessons

Response and recovery

lessons

Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikōura earthquake: Bringing it all together in MERIT. Dr Garry

McDonald, Dr Nicola Smith, Dr Emily Harvey, Dr Morag Ayers and John Kim

0-12

months

12-24

months

Total

(0-24

months)

Total

(0-24 months)

0-12

months

12-24

months

Total

(0-24

months)

Total

(0-24 months)

GDP impacts by componentShare of GDP

impacts (%)

Share of GDP

impacts (%)

Transport - all New Zealand -151 -58 -209 45% -167 -97 -263 51%

Canterbury -39 -11 -50 43% -45 -23 -68 49%

Rest of New Zealand -112 -47 -159 46% -121 -74 -196 52%

Business operability1 - all NZ -274 -3 -277 60% -279 1 -278 54%

Canterbury -52 1 -51 44% -57 1 -56 41%

Rest of New Zealand -222 -4 -226 65% -222 1 -222 59%

Tourism - all New Zealand 19 1 19 -4% 19 1 20 -4%

Canterbury -17 1 -16 14% -21 1 -20 14%

Rest of New Zealand 36 -1 35 -10% 40 -1 40 -11%

Notes: 1. This includes supply-side impacts on tourism businesses

Estimated GDP impacts

($2016m)

OPTIONS 1&2 OPTION 3

Time Period After Event Time Period After Event

Estimated GDP impacts ($2016m)

Estimated Contributions of Transport, Business Operability and Tourism to Total Impacts

Rapid assessment of the economic impacts as part of the wider information response to support decision-making

RESPONSE RECOVERYRESPONSE + RECOVERY

RESPONSE + PREPERATION

RESPONSE + RECOVERY + PREPERATION RECOVERY + PREPERATON

National Crisis Mgmt Centre

Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

(international assistance)

National Security Committee of Cabinet (NSC)

NZ Search and Rescue

CDEM Group Emergency Mgmt

Office/EEC

Emergency services personnel

USAR staff

Ministry of Transport

Ministry of Civil Defence & Emergency

Mgmt

New Zealand

Transport Agency

KiwiRail Defence Force

Road freight/Trucking

companies

Port companies (Centreport,

Marl., Nelson)

Lifelines groups (power, water, roads, ports)

Local Govt politicians, councillors

Network contractors

NOCSeismologists, assessors,

engineers, planners designers, & other scientists

Ports

State highways

Local authority roads

Treasury

EQC Insurance

Professional bodies & unions

Industry reps and lobby

groups

Rail freight companies

Ferry and other shipping

companies

Local business community

Fonterra

Consultants

Contractors

Road Network Mgmt Alliance

Retailers

Producers/manufacturers

Farmers/growers

Hospitality and tourist operators

Tankers

Embassies (e.g. Chinese,

Brit, US)

Land care

Social and business recovery

managers

Synlait

Air freight companies

Central

Local

Identified by all

expertsIdentified by 3 + Identified by 2 + Identified by 1

ATRF: Tuesday Poster 69

Better information for better learning & planning• Inter-regional, multi-modal

• Users of information = investors, managers, transport network users

• Across the disaster risk reduction cycle

Response

Recovery

Reduction

Readiness

Research goals

Observe

• System disruption

•Adaptation

Learn

• Information flows & decisions

• Lessons

Monitor

• System performance

•Data requirements

Research Programme: key steps

Gather

•Workshop

•Wider engagement

• In-depth enquiry

Tool development

•Data gap identification

•Data gathering

•Monitoring

Report

• System performance

•Data requirements

Research Programme: Next steps

Gather

•Workshop

•Wider engagement

• In-depth enquiry

Tool development

•Data gap identification

•Data gathering

•Monitoring

Report

• System performance

•Data requirements

Data, data everywhere (except where you need it) • Mapping consequences

• Timeline of decisions

• Timeline of information generation & use

Research Programme

• How you can help

• What information do you need in these circumstances?

• What data can you share?

Contact details: Vivienne.Ivory@opus.co.nzt.herbert@transport.govt.nzl.wotherspoon@auckland.ac.nz

For Kaikoura case

For future cases