An Epistemic ApproachApplied for Integrated Water

Quantity and Quality Problems:

Case Study Berlin_________________________________

V. WenzelPotsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dept. Integrated Systems Analysis

Content

1. The Integrated Approach

2. Case Study Berlin: Waters Quantity & Quality

– An integrated model of the Greater Berlin river-network– Embedding into a Framework

for integrated regional problem solving– An actual problem and Alternative Strategies

for its potential solution– Evaluating the results of impact analyses– Integrating evaluation criteria– NAIADE: Multicriteria- & Equity-analyses– Ranking & Decision Support

Pattern for an integrated approach

Question, Problem, Conflict

Selective Cumulation

Saturation

Epistemic Aggregation

Answer, Solution

Conception: Genome

ProteomeOrgans‘ Growth

Saturation

Organs‘ FunctionsIntegration

Organism: Viability

Epistemic structure The ‚miracle of life‘

Investigation of complex systems

Question, Problem

Selective Cumulation

Saturation

Epistemic Aggregation

Answer, Solution

Problem definition and analysisStakeholder, Common values

Conceptualisation for problem solving

Actions, Criteria, Model set-up

Definition of scenarios

External Drivers, Alternatives

Impact-Analysis

Evaluation of Alternatives

Index-variables, Multi-criteria analysis

Negotiation for Compromise

Conflict analysis

Optimal & Compromise Ranking

Epistemologyin general

Basic Integration Scheme

Global Change ‚Leitbilder‘

QuestionProblemConflict

IntegratedAssessment

AnswerSolution

Compromise

InterdisciplinaryStudies

Transdisciplinary Participation

Language Categories

# CategorySymbol

1 Regions: REG Geographical objects of investigation

2 Time Range: TIR Simulation interval for scenarios

3 Time Units: TIUTime steps of models

4 Master Scenarios: MSC

Regional problems, conflicts & tasks

5 Stakeholders: STA Interest groups & institutions

6 Exogeneous drivers: EXO

Components of Global Change or other drivers

7 Alternatives: ALT

Management strategies as bundles of options

8 Management Fields: MTF

Fields for management activities

9 Management Options: MTO

Activities as quantitative measures

10 Models: MOD Methods, instruments for impact analyses

Language Categories cont.

# category symbol

11 Single Indicators: IND Variables, states

12 Index Variables: IDX Aggregated indicators

13 Criteria: CRI for integrated evaluation

14 Alternatives vs. Criteria: AvC Impact matrix for multicriteria analysis

15 Alternatives vs. Stakeholders: AvS Equity matrix for conflict analysis

16 Leitbilder: LBD Generally accepted values 17 Integrated Impact Analysis: IIA 18 Multicriteria Analysis: MCA 19 Equity Analysis: EQA

20 Negotiations: NEG

Research object: River system of Greater Berlin

Greater Berlin: Integrated waters model

HYDRAXHydrodynamics

QSIMWaters Quality

EMMOAquatic

Ecosystem

TrophySaprobyPollution

WatersQualityClasses

BathingSite

Water Quality

EpisodicFish

Mortality

Canal OverflowArcEGMO

Rain Water run-off

LUSIMSoil Sealing

geogr. explicit

ArcGRMLong Range

Rationing

Supply Risks

Index forSupply

Security

Matter Charges

Managementquality-

sensitive

UrbanizationDemographySocial Dyn.

Climate Change

PrecipitationPatterns

Managementquantity-sensitive

Demands

Framework for Problem Solving

Master Scenario

Management options

Alternative strategies

Development scenarios

Exogenousdrivings

Indicators

Evaluationcriteria

Impact analysis

Impact matrix

DataModelsExpert-knowledgeLiterature

Multicriteria analysis

Equity matrix

Equity analysis

Ranking

Coalitiondendrogram

Participation

Stakeholders

of

Interest groups

&

Decision makers

Policy recommendations

Problems in the focus of research: Master-Scenarios

• Security for demanded water availability and expected waters quality in Berlinunder the conditions of Global change

• Facility and security of navigation on Lower Spree and Havel rivers under consideration of the demands with respect to environmental protection

• Present state A1

• Present state B2

- Demographic dynamics as part of urbanization - Technology and behavioural changes mapped through MAS-models to be realized later in GLOWA II

100 Realizations of A1-Climate

Urbanization scenario A1Ugeographically explicit by LUSIM

100 Realizations of B2-Climate

Urbanization scenario B2U geographically explicit by LUSIM

Components of Global Change:

Interest groups and Institutions:Stakeholders

•Regional development authorities

• Environmental policy authorities

• Health authorities

• Water suppliers

• Energy suppliers

• Navigation agencies

• Environmental protectionists

• Bathers

• Fishermen and angler

6 Management fields - with 2 or 3 options:

• Senate‘s water policy WP0: SenStadt scenario 2025AWP1: SenStadt scenario 2025B

• Pur. Plant performance KAL0: b.a.u. - operation with present equipment

KAL1: P-elimination PP Münchehofe,Waßmannsdorf,Ruhleben

KAL2: membrane filtering in PP Ruhleben

• Rain water management RWB0: b.a.u. - sealing grows with urbanization RWB1: partial unsealing / detain more rain water

• Energy policy EP0: b.a.u. - present EP-capacitiesEP1: EP-capacity reduction, better cooling technology

• Flow regulation FR0: b.a.u. - usual adaptive Berlin - controlFR1: transfer of 3.5 m3/s water Oder Spree basin

• Environm. protection UMW0: b.a.u. - no further actionsUMW1: 1 / 2 outflow PP Münchehofe WuhletalUMW2: stop water transfer PP Ruhleben

Teltowkanal

2 * 4 Alternatives

ALT1: WP0,KAL0,RWB0,EP0,FR0,UMW0 - Business as usual ALT2: WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP1,FR0,UMW1 - Moderate Options ALT3: WP1,KAL0,RWB1,EP0,FR0,UMW2 - Redistribution for

Biotopes ALT4: WP1,KAL2,RWB1,EP0,FR0,UMW2 - Improved purific. &

Biotopes------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ALT5 – ALT8: as ALT1 – ALT4 but with FR1 instead of FR0------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4 Strategies in Berlin

4 Scenarios in the Spree region

1. Basic-Scenario ALT1 – ALT42. Oder-water transfer ALT5 – ALT83. Flooding of abandoned holesALT9 – ALT12 4. Reduced affluxes ALT13 – ALT16

Structures for Evaluation of Alternatives

Multicriteria Evaluation: NAIADE

IDX1

IND11

Integrating Criteria :

Aggregated Index Variables :

Single Indicators :

Approved Models :

Selection & Adaptation vs.Modelling & Validation :

CRI1

Modelling :

IND12 IND13

IDX2

IND21

CRI2

IND22 IND23

IDXn

INDn1

CRIn

INDn2 INDn3

. . . .

. . . .

MOD1 MOD2 MOD3 MODm. . . .

Evaluation criteriaDerived from following Aggregated Index

Variables:

• Water Supply Security Index

• Waters Quality Class Index

• Bathing Site Water Quality

• Episodic Fish Mortality

• Urban Climate

• Monetary Index

The Index-ModelsBase for Evaluation criteria

Aggregated Index Variable Combined Single indicators

• Water Supply Security Index Deficit probabilities for minimal dischargesand the demands of PPs, WPs and lockage

• Waters Quality Class Index LAWA-threshold values for matter compounds and trophy

• Bathing Site Water Quality TP, Chlorophyll-a, Blue-green algae, Secchi depth,

Pathogenic bacteria, Potential Bathing frequency

• Episodic Fish Mortality O2-provisions, pH-value, NH4 throughexceptional loads by Canal overflowsafter Heavy rain events

• Urban Climate Temperature distribution, Air moisture andcirculation in the urban area

• Monetary Index Balances for costs and benefits of the alternative strategies

Criterion of Supply SecurityLevels of aggregation

• Demand facilities: Water plants, Power plants, Minimal discharge

Aggregates a are the single WPs, PPs and gauges

• ArcGRM: Counts the deficit probabilities W(a,monat)

• A time integration yields W(a,jahr) = W(a,pentade)

• Integration over the aggregates with individual weights:

V(p) = ( q(a) * W(a,p)) / Q with Q = q(a)

• Weight for a gauge – is the demanded local discharge Qmin(a) ... for a PP or WP – is the demanded quantity to be used

• For PP the deficit probability corresponds to those of needed multiple use of the available water quantity

Waters quality index

• Components: Matter compounds and Trophy

• Compounds considered: O2, TOC, NO3, NO2, NH4, totP, solPwith given LAWA-threshold values for the assignment of one of the 7 quality classes I, I-II, II, II-III, III, III-IV, IV

• Projection of the entire intervals for all compounds onto interval (0,1)

• Assignment of weight values qi so that O2, TOC and the remaining compounds together take by one third; it follows additive combination of the single indicators Gi coming up with quality index GGS for matter compounds:

GGS = qi * Gi ; i= 1,...,7

• As measure for the trophic state serves the Chlorophyll-a content

• The trophic quality index GGT we receive by assigning one of the

7 classes I to IV guided by the given LAWA-threshold values

Criterion of Bathing site Waters quality

Aspects of an Integrating Evaluation:

• Ecological: States according to phosphorus concentration,algae blooming and secchi depth: CHLa,

in particular, the share of Blue-green algae BA

• Social: Health threatening by Blue-green algae toxin

and pathogenic bacteria EC

• Economic: Potential vs. actual bathing frequency

• Normative: Standardization of the Index by EU-orders: G-values (guiding) for warningI-values (imperative) for bathing prohibition

Index BQ after processing of all threshold values:

BQ = (1-BQ1) / 3 + (1-BQ2) / 3 + (1-BQ3) / 3

with BQ1 = CHLa / 150 ; BQ2 = 0.113*BA ; BQ3 = log(EC)/4

Index for Bathing site water quality

Trajectories of 3 Scenarios: Basic, Oder-water transfer, Flooding

for one bathing season

NAIADE: Multi-criteria und Equity Analyses

• Developped with respect to applications in Ecological Economy

• Allows Fuzzy-linguistic ratings as much as numeric or probabilistic ones

• Provides an Equity Analysis parallel to MCA

NAIADE is the quintessence of a monograph to MCA by G. Munda (JRC EC, Ispra, Italy):„Multicriteria Evaluation in a Fuzzy Environment: Theory and Applications in Ecological Economics“

Analyses with NAIADE

1. Definition/Identification ofAlternatives, Evaluation criteria, Interest groups

2. Establish Matrices:

Impact-Matrix Equity-Matrix

n. Alternative

k. Criterion

k. Interest group

n. Alternative

Element: numeric, stochastic or fuzzy ... only fuzzy-linguistic

3. Analyses and Results

Impact-Matrix Ranking of AlternativesEquity-Matrix Coalitions dendrogram for Interest groups

Ranking of the Berlin-Alternatives by water quantity criteria

Ranking of all Berlin/Spree-Alternativesby water quantity criteria

Ranking of the 4 Berlin Alternativesby criteria for both quality and quantity

Pentade 1 (2003-2007) Pentade 10 (2048-2052)

Fuzzy-linguistic Scale

0 Extremely Bad Very Bad0.08

Bad0.24

More or Less Bad0.41

Moderate0.59

More or Less Good0.76

Good0.92

Very Good1 Perfect

Based on the interval (0,1), a Fuzzy-set is defined for each of the 9 introducedlinguistic variables.

The scale marks the points of overlapping for neighboring functions.

Equity-Matrix and Coalitions dendrogram

Resume• The presented method of integrative, participative analysis

and evaluation has been applied and demonstrated with all its steps from problem definition to decision supportfor the case study Berlin. The instrument is prepared for further investigations.

• Following the hierarchical structure for the method‘s categories in top-down direction, coming investigations may also concern

- other research objects- new problems- additional drivers (other components of Global

change) - changed structures for the characteristic concepts

(Stakeholders, Alternatives, Evaluation criteria) - new models to be applied or - the change of certain assumptions or model

parameters.

Thank you for attention!