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National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
An Empirical Approach to CVE White House Summit on Countering Violent Extremism
William Braniff Executive Director, START
February 18, 2015
This research was supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and the National Institute of Justice through START. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations presented here are solely the authors’ and are not representative of DHS or the United States Government.
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
0
2000
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8000
10000
12000
14000
Atta
cks
Year
Total Attacks
Fatal Attacks
>10 Fatalities
Worldwide Terrorism, 1970-2014*
* 2014 is partial-year data (January- September) Source: Global Terrorism Database
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Rest of the World 48% AFPAK/Iraq
52%
Terrorist Attacks, 2012-2014*
*Through September, 2014 Source: Global Terrorism Database
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
AQAM 75%
ISIL 25%
Al-Qa`ida and Affiliated Movements (AQAM): Attacks, 2012-2014*
AQAM: Abu Sayyaf Group Al-Nusrah Front Al-Qa`ida in the Arabian Peninsula Al-Qa`ida in the Indian Subcontinent
Al-Qa`ida in the Islamic Maghreb Al-Shabaab Ansar Al-Sharia (Libya) Ansar Al-Sharia (Tunisia) Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Jemaah Islamiya Lashkar-e-Taiba Taliban Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
Source: Global Terrorism Database *Through September, 2014
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Terrorism Hot Spots
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Radicalization over time
0
10
20
30
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50
60
Islamist Far Right Far LeftSource: Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS)
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Multiple Radicalization Pathways
7
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Cases per year – Lone actors
0
5
10
15
20
25
Islamist lone actors Far Right lone actors Far Left lone actors
Source: Profiles of Individual Radicalization in the United States (PIRUS)
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Source: Global Terrorism Database
Terrorism in the U.S.: 1970-2014 (n = 2627)
Source: Global Terrorism Database
0
50
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Num
ber o
f Att
acks
Year
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
Building Community Resilience to Violent Extremism
Source: Dr. Stevan Weine, University of Illinois-Chicago
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
• CVE pushes back on polarization • CVE is pragmatic • CVE addresses all-hazards • CVE protects all communities • Because Americans think it will work
Reasons to Embrace CVE
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
10 years ago Intellectual Table-Setting
5 years ago Emotional Appeals
Today Blend of expression & behavior
Evolving Challenges
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism A DHS Center of Excellence
William Braniff Executive Director
START, University of Maryland (301) 405-6600
[email protected] www.start.umd.edu
