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An Ecological Trap for Ecologists:
Zero-Modified Models
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Tzeng Yih Lam, OSU
Manuela Huso, OSU
Doug Maguire, OSU
^Possible
Ecological Trap [ē-kə-ˈlä-ji-kəl ˈtrap]
A preference of falsely attractive habitat and a general avoidance of high-quality but less-attractive habitats.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Wikipedia
• Cues for Zero-Modified Models• Possible Trap #1• Possible Trap #2• Discussions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe Cues & The SolutionsZero-Inflated ModelsHurdle ModelsExpected Count – Observed CountConclusions
• ‘The Cues’:•For rare species data, the marginal count
frequency distribution contains large number of zeros,
•Poisson and/or NB GLM have poor fit.
• ‘The Solutions’:•Zero-modified Models: A general class of
finite mixture models that account for excessive zeros,
•Zero-Inflated Models (ZI)1,•Hurdle Models (H)2.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
1Lambert (1992); 2Mullahy (1986)
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe Cues & The SolutionsZero-Inflated ModelsHurdle ModelsExpected Count – Observed CountConclusions
Zero-Inflated Models (Poisson; ZIP)
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Lambert (1992)
1 , 0
Pr1 , 0
!
y
p p e y
Y y ep y
y
Two States: Perfect and Imperfect States, Finite Mixture Model (FMM) with 1 latent structure:
• An observation belongs to either state.
Specify it as Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB).
log λ Bβ logit log1
pp Gγ
pProbability of Belonging to Perfect State
1 , 0
Pr, 0
1 !
y
y
Y y ey
e y
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe Cues & The SolutionsZero-Inflated ModelsHurdle ModelsExpected Count – Observed CountConclusions
Hurdle Models (Poisson; HPOIS)
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Mullahy (1986) 2Baughman
(2007)
Under FMM framework comparable to ZI models, Hurdle Models with 2 latent structures2:
• An observation either cross the ‘hurdle’ or not,• All observations are in the Imperfect State.
Specify it as Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB).
log λ Bβ logit log1
π
π Gγπ
Probability of Crossing the Hurdle
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanations
Given known data generating process (dgp):
(1) Is there any bias when the data is fitted to different ZI and H model specifications?
(2) Is/Are there any universally best fit models?
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanation
4 Factors(1) LAMBDA (λ): 0.3 1.5 5.0(2) INFLA (p): 0.0 0.25 0.75 (3) RATIO (Var/Mean): 1.0 1.5 3.0(4) SAMPLE : 25 50 75 100
250
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
For each of the 27 dgp (LAMBDA × INFLA × RATIO), generate 1000 sets of SAMPLE random count,
Fit each set to six model specifications: POIS, NB, ZIP, ZINB, HPOIS, HNB,
Calculate mean %RBIAS for each parameter: λ, p, π and compute AICc.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
POISNB
NBHNB
NBZINBHNB
ZIPZINB
HPOISHNB
ZIPZINB
HPOISHNB
NBZINBHNB
ZIPZINB
HPOISHNB
ZIPZINB
HPOISHNB
NBZIP
ZINBHPOISHNB
SAMPLE = 100 Lowest AICc
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanations
(1) Variance of estimated λ is the highest when LAMBDA = 0.3,
(2) Variance of estimated λ decreases with increasing LAMBDA but it increases with increasing RATIO and/or INFLA,
(3) Probability in Perfect State, p, from ZI models has largest (+ve and –ve) bias and variance at LAMBDA = 0.3,
(4) Overdispersion parameter, θ, requires ≥ 250 SAMPLE to achieve negligible bias.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanations
Maximum Likelihood Theory
• Ingredient = a simulated set of count• Optimize the parameter estimates to match the
marginal count distribution.
• Large bias and variance of λ and p at LAMBDA = 0.3,
• When there are either too many zeros or ones, Binomial GLM seems to be unstable Min and Agresti (2005) unstable estimates of p unstable estimates of λ and θ.
• There might not be enough information when LAMBDA = 0.3.
• ZI models estimation are based on EM algorithm,
• H models separately maximize the likelihood functions of π and λ.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarityConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
• Perfect State in Ecology Context:• It is a set of habitat conditions that do
not host the interested species,
• Imperfect State in Ecology Context:
• It is a set of habitat conditions that host the interested species but one may not find the species there,
• This does not directly differentiate sink & source, saturated & unsaturated habitat, fundamental & realized niche etc.
ZeroStructuralRandomAccidentalStochasticSamplingTrueFalse
A: “Did you smoke any cigarette last week?”B: “No” ; 0 A: “Are you a smoker?”B: “Yes”
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarityConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
• Zero-Inflated Models have 2 states:• Perfect and Imperfect States• Main Assumption: You do not know the
observation belong to which state.
• Hurdle models have 1 state:• Imperfect State
Zero-Inflated Models
Hurdle Models
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarityConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
A priori knowledge such as species habitat range, will likely influence the model choice
In ecology, scale matters …
Grains
Exte
nt
POISNBZIP
ZINBHPOISHNB
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarityConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Modeling of rare species habitat association
Cunningham & Lindenmayer (2005)
and many others…
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarity, Extent & GrainsConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
What Do the Ecologists Need To Do?
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarity, Extent & GrainsConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
The Great Escape (1963)
Capt. Hilts (The Cooler King)1961 British 650cc Triumphs
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarity, Extent & GrainsConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
• Escape from defining the types of zeros:• There is no restriction on threshold for mixing
& hurdle,• Change current threshold from 0 1,• Change perfect to near-perfect state (ZI
models), changing ecological implication of the models.
• N-mixture models (Royle 2004)
• Escape from using ZI & H models :• If one is uncomfortable with two-states
processes,• Small Area Estimation Rao(2003),• Extreme Value Model Coles(2001).
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
AcknowledgementPossible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesAcknowledgementA Priori KnowledgeRarity, Extent & GrainsConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Hayes Family Foundation Funds for Silviculture Alternatives
Dilworth Awards, OSU
Doug Maguire
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
AcknowledgementPossible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesAcknowledgementA Priori KnowledgeRarity, Extent & GrainsConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Thank You for Listening!
Any *Err… Question?
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanations
• AICc, Information theory.• More flexible model parameterization will have better fit.
• Sample size is an issue for ZINB and HNB models for fitting.
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryThe QuestionsThe Simulation StudyThe Bias & AICcOther Preliminary Key FindingsSome Plausible Explanations
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
Cues for Using Zero-Modified ModelsCues for Zero-Modified Models
Possible Trap #1Possible Trap #2
DiscussionsDiscussions
Count & Normal TheoryPerfect & Imperfect StatesPerfect & Imperfect StatesA Priori KnowledgeRarityConclusions
Western Mensurationists’ Meeting 2009 Tzeng Yih Lam 06.23.2009
A priori knowledge such as species habitat range, and extent and grains will likely influence the model choice.