An EarlyWarningSystemBy promptly reacting to student distress signals,schools can redirect potential dropoutsonto the path to graduation.

Ruth Curran Neild, Robert Balfanz, and Liza Herzog

The alarm has sounded. TheUnited States has a higbschool graduation crisis.The crisis does not stem,however, from any precipi-

tous drop in the percentage of studentswho graduate. In fact, graduation ratesare about as high as they have everbeen. What makes current graduationrates alarming Is a reality of the newU.S. economy: It is practically impos-sible for individuals lacking a highschool diploma to earn a living orparticipate meaningfully in civic life.Adding to the urgency is evidence ofdisproportionately low graduation ratesamong low-income and minorityyouth. Recent estimates suggest thatbetween one-third and one-half ofminorities do not earn a high school

diploma (Education Week, 2007).Policymakers and educators have

tended to view dropping out of highschool in two contradictory ways. Onthe one hand, they view it aspredictable, given the high dropoutrates in certain demographic categoriesand geographic locations. At the sametime, they view the experiences thatprecede a specific student's droppingout as mysterious, difficult to predict,and idiosyncratic. Some students unac-countably "hecome bored with school";"fall in with the wrong crowd"; or expe-rience a jarring life event, such as apregnancy or a parent's unemployment,that precipitates their dropping out ofschool.

Our research suggests that, on thecontrary, many students who drop out

of high school send strong distresssignals for years. These students aremetaphorically waving their hands andasking for help. By paying attention,schools and districts can develop inter-ventions that can help keep potentialdropouts on track to graduation.

Policymakers and educators faceseveral challenges in devising these earlyintervention strategies. The first is tofigure out which signals to look for andwhen to look for them. These signalsform an early warning system thatschools can use to identify students whoare at risk of dropping out. The secondchallenge is to develop a set of struc-tures and practices within schools thatenahle educators to review data andpinpoint those students who aresending signals. The third challenge isto determine tbe help that studentsneed, on the hasis ofthe signals theysend and their responses to previousinterventions.

Early IndicatorsDuring the past 25 years, a great deal ofresearch has focused on why students

28 EDUCATIONAL LEADERSHIP/OCTOBER 2007

drop out. This research typically usesdata from complex surveys or in-depthinterviews with students, none of whichare commonly available to schools andschool districts. We wondered whetherthe ordinary data that school districtskeep in student records could operate asa cry-stal ball of sorts to predict whichstudents might drop out.

We began our research in Philadel-phia, using data on several cohorts ofstudents that became available to uswhen we established a number of TalentDevelopment High Schools and MiddleGrades Programs in the city, JohnsHopkins developed these schoolmodels, and the Philadelphia EducationFund was the local reform partner.Schools implementing the Talent Devel-opment model were located in areaswith low graduation rates.

The school district data that weexamined included test scores, reportcard grades, behavior marks, attendancerecords, special education status,English language learner status, anddemographic categories. We identifiedthe following indicators using Philadel-

The earlier a student

first sends a signal,

the greater the risk

that he or she will

drop out of school.

phia data. However, we have been ableto replicate them with slight modifica-tions in other cities, such as Boston andIndianapolis.

Signals in the Middle GradesA high percentage of dropouts senddistress signals in the middle grades,long before they actually drop out ofschool. We followed an entire cohort ofstudents in Philadelphia who enteredthe 6th grade in September 1996—approximately 14,000 students—todetermine their dropout status six yearslater. Then, going back to the 6th grade

data, we looked for any signals—a poorcourse grade, a low test score—thatwould give students at least a 75 percentprobability of dropping out of highschool. We chose the 75 percentthreshold because it enables schools anddistricts to focus their scarce resourceson students who are at high risk ofdropping out.

In Philadelphia, we found that a 6thgrader with even one of the followingfour signals had at least a three in fourchance of dropping out of high school:

• A final grade of F in mathematics.• A final grade of F in English,• Attendance below 80 percent for

the year.• A final "unsatisfactory" behavior

mark in at least one class.Students with more than one signal—

for example, failing mathematics andmissing a lot of school—had an evenhigher probability of dropping outwithin six years. But we also found thatsome students sent just one signal, indi-cating that various factors can culminatein dropping out. Students with failingcourse grades may struggle withacademic skills and motivation, thosewith inconsistent attendance may findlittle support for schooling at home, andthose with poor behavior marks mayhave social and emotional challengesthat require attention. The signals thathave the greatest predictive power relateto student action or behavior in theclassroom, rather than to a particularstatus, such as receiving special educa-tion services.

In a separate analysis, we looked atindicators for a cohort of 8th graders.For these students, too, a failing course

ASSOCIATION FOR SUPERVISION AND CURRICULUM DEVELOPMENT 29

grade in mathematics or English or anattendance rate of less than 80 percentduring the year were highly predictiveof dropping out. In fact, more than 50percent of the students who ultimatelydropped out sent one or more of thesesignals during 8th grade, meaning thatmore than half of the dropouts in thecohort could have been identified evenbefore they entered high school.

Although all distress signals shouldbe taken seriously in the middle grades,schools should pay special attention tostudents who send a signal in 6th grade.The earlier a student first sends a signal,the greater the risk that he or she vtilldrop out of school.

Signals in High SchoolNinth grade is a treacherous year forstudents, particularly those in largeurban districts. Even students who weredoing moderately well in the middlegrades can be knocked off the path tograduation by the new academicdemands and social pressures of highschool. Among students who sent theirfirst serious distress signal in 9th grade,those who earned fewer than twocredits or attended school less than 70percent of the time had at least a 75percent chance of dropping out ofschool. Most of these students did notdrop out immediately but attempted 9thgrade courses for another one or twoyears before finally giving up on schoolaltogether.

Eighty percent of the dropouts westudied in Philadelphia had sent asignal in the middle grades or duringthe first year of high school. Themajority of U.S, high school dropoutsare enrolled m such large urbandistricts (Balfanz & Legters, 2004).Consequently, an effective earlywarning system could identify—at leastby 9th grade—the vast majority offuture dropouts nationwide.

^^m• i• i IWhat Can Schools Do?Our experience with urban middleschools and high schools suggests thatseveral strategies can help keep studentson the path to graduation.

Intervening in the Middle GradesPhiladelphia is currently piloting amiddle grades program—KeepingMiddle Grades Students on the Gradua-

tion Path—that seeks to develop toolsand practices for responding to earlyindicators that signal potential dropouts.Developed through the joint efforts ofthe School District of Philadelphia, thePhiladelphia Education Eund, and theJohns Hopkins University Center for theSocial Organization of Schools, theprogram is based on two fundamentalassumptions: (1) that students' signals

30 EDUCATIONAL LEADERSMIP/OCTOBES 2007

are surface indicators of deeperacademic problems, behavioral issues,or responses to the home or schoolenvironment that schools need to iden-tify and address; and (2) that only asmall percentage of students will needthe most intensive and costly interven-tions. For the majonty of students,lower-cost schoolwide strategies thatseek to prevent the problems willsuffice.

Schools can identify strategies foraddressing each signal—such as coursefailure, poor attendance, and behaviorissues—using a three-tiered school-

dance program might sign an atten-dance contract or attend a conference atschool with family members; thestudent may then receive a brief dailycheck-in from a school staff member.This adult mighi acknowledge that thestudent is in school and mention that heor she looks forward to seeing thestudent the next day and will call homeit the student does not show up.

Finally, the third tier of intensive inter-ventions is reserved lor the 5-10 percentof students who need small-group orone-on-one supports. A student withsevere attendance problems might be

These signals form an early warning system

that schools can use to identify students

who are at risk of dropping out.

based model for prevention and inter-vention. The top tier consists of effectivewhole-school preventative measures. Inurban districts that struggle with highdropout rates, these whole-school meas-ures can keep an estimated 70-80percent of the students on track to grad-uation during the middle grades. Forexample, a school might institute aschoolwide attendance program thathighlights the importance of attendance;tracks attendance daily at the classroomlevel; has an adult in the buildingrespond to the first ahsence of eachstudent; and provides weekly recogni-tion and monthly social rewards (suchas pizza parties or field trips) to studentswith perfect or near-perfecl attendance.

The second tier of targeted interven-tions is aimed at the 10-20 percent ofstudents who require additional focusedsupports. A student who continues tomiss school despite a schoolwide atten-

assigned to a team of adults at theschool (including, lor example, a coun-selor, an assistant principal, and ateacher) who will work together tounderstand the source of the attendanceproblem and try to solve it. If theproblem is too deep-rooted for theschool alone to resolve, the team willarrange for the student and his or herfamily to receive appropriate socialservice supports.

Using the three-tiered model, schoolsin the pilot program take a hard look atwhat they are actually doing to addressattendance, behavior, and academicperformance. Our experience hasshown us that schools are often doingfar less in each of these areas than theythink.

To help schools identify whichstudents send signals and how theyrespond to interventions, we developedan on-demand, classroom-level data

program. Teachers can use this programto track individual students on a day-to-day basis so they can quickly identifystudents who need to move to a moreintensive level of intervention. Likewise,they can reevaluate students who haveresponded to intensive interventions.This early indicator tracking tool hasproved so useful that Philadelphia plansto make it available to other schoolsthrough the districtwide integrated datamanagement system.

Keeping an Eye on 9th CradersThe best thing a high school can do tokeep students on track to graduation isto develop a comprehensive set otstrategies that includes attention toclimate, curriculum, and credit accumu-lation. At a minimum, high ^choolbneed to set the conditions for 9th gradesuccess by making sure that thecurriculum and associated supportshelp fill gaps in mathematics andreading comprehension. Our work withschools in low-income areas across theUnited States indicates that the majorityof students in these schools are two tothree years below grade level when theystart 9th grade. They need an age-appropriate curriculum that enablesthem to catch up on the intermediateskills that high school courses assumethat students have.

At the same time, schools need to beorganized so that they can flag studentswho are having difficulty early on. Datafrom urban districts (Roderick &Camburn, 1999) indicate that struggling9th graders typically send their signalsin the first or second marking period—or even during the first few weeks ofschool. The Talent Development HighSchool model (see v^'ww.csos.jhu.edu/tdhs), developed by urban educatorsand Johns Hopkins researchers, organ-izes 9th grade teachers into four-personinterdisciplinary teams. Each team

A S S O C I A T I O N I ^ O R S U P E R V I S I O N A N D C L K R I C U I . U M D t v i . L u i ' M L N I 3 1

compares notes about itsstudents' classroom performanceand collaboratively decides onstrategies for dealing with thosewho are having trouble.

Finally, schools need to makeavailable to struggling or disen-gaged students various avenuesthrough which they can experi-ence short-term school success.These include such activities asdebates, artistic and performanceexperiences, and service learningprojects, with opportunities toparticipate linked to good atten-dance and course effort.

Reengaging Out-oJ-School YouthDespite the best efforts of schoolsto keep students on the path tograduation, some students v illalways drop out. Some will try toreturn to school, but the tradi-tional high school format may notserve them well because of theirage, lack of credits, or personalresponsibihties. ln Philadelphia, agroup of partners—including the schooldistrict, city agencies, nonprofit groupsthat advocate for children and publiceducation, workforce developmentorganizations, and research universi-ties—has begun to collaborate on amultiple-pathways system that willenable out-of-school youth to eam theirdiplomas.

This collaboration, known as ProjectU-Tum (www.projectutum.net) and ledby the Philadelphia Youth Network,envisions a system that offers opportuni-ties for students on the basis of theirage, literacy and numeracy levels, andcredits earned. By examining districtdata, the Project U-Turn partnersleamed that although the largest groupof dropouts had earned fewer than eightcredits despite being at least 17 yearsold, they had few opportunities to eam adiploma other than reenrolUng in tradi-

tional high schools, which were hardlyenthused about taking in older studentswith histories of failure. The pannershipis currently working to design and fundnew education options for thesestudents. In addition, youth who havedropped out jusi shy of graduation needopportunities to fast-track their highschool diplomas while earning creditsfrom a community college.

The Price of Not InterveningData from large urban districts and ourwork with urban middle schools andhigh schools have shovm us that, for themajority of students who drop out ofhigh school, the major cause is ml anunanticipated life event or disinterest inreceiving a diploma, but rather schoolfailure. Moreover, the vast majority ofdropouts stay enrolled in school for anadditional year or two after their first

experience of course failure. Thiscontinuing connection withschool, however tenuous,suggests a window of time dunngwhich schools can redirect poten-tial dropouts back onto the pathto high school graduation.

It also tells us that whatschools do matters. Growingnumbers of high schools havebeaten the odds and kept theirstudents on the path to gradua-tion. Good research-based andpractice-validated interventionscan improve student attendance,behavior, and effort; academicinterventions can improve courseperformance more directly. TheU.S. graduation rate crisis is notfueled by students wbo lack thepotential or desire to graduate,

1 but rather by secondary schools1 that are not organized to preventi students Irom falling off the path! to graduation or to intervene

^ B i when they do.

Finally, we need to recognizethat some middle schools and highschools are overwhelmed by thenumber of potential dropouts who walkthrough their doors. Research showsthat approximately 50 percent of thedropouts in the United States areproduced by 15 percent ofthe highschools, all of which serve populationswith high poverty rates (Balfanz &Legters, 2004). Further, most of thesehigh schools have two or more feedermiddle schools. Dropout rates for anentering cohort can top 50 percent,meaning that hundreds and sometimesthousands of students at each school arein need of comprehensive and sustainedsupports. These schools need to have inplace strong prevention and interven-tion systems aimed at improvingstudent attendance, behavior, effort, andcourse performance.

The need for strong programs has

32 EDUCATIONAL 2007

significant implications for how we stalland fund the secondary schools thateducate economically disadvantagedstudents. Implementing the whole-school reforms and multitiered preven-tion and intervention systems that theseschools need requires financial andhuman resources equal to the task,along with high-quality technical assis-tance. High-poverty schools will alsolikely benefit from partnerships withexternal organizations skilled at deliv-ering integrated student supports aswell as with community organizationsand national service organizations thatcan provide the necessary people powerfor mentoring and tutoring on a suffi-cient scale.

Without question, there are financialcosts associated with intervening withstudents who are on the path to drop-

The majority of students drop out ofhigh school because of school failure.

ping out. But the price of not inter-vening—in terms of individual lives thatdo not reach their potential and thebroader social costs of having a class ofcitizens who lack a basic academiccredential—is incalculably greater. [3

ReferencesBalfanz, R., & Legters, N. (2004). Locating

the dropout crisis: Which high schoolsproduce the nation's dropouts? In G.Orfield (Ed.), Dropouts in America (pp.57-84). Cambridge, MA: Harvard Educa-tion Press.

Education Week. (2007). Diplomas Count2007: Ready for what? Preparing students forcollege, careers, and life after high schoolBethesda, MD: Editorial Projects in

Education Research Center.Roderick, M., & Camburn, E. (1999). Risk

and recovery from course failure in theearly years of high school. AmericanEducational Research foumal, 36, 303-343.

Ruth Curran Neild (rneild@csos.jhu.edu)and Robert Balfanz (rbalfanz@csos.jhu.edu) are research scientists at JohnsHopkins University and coauthors ofUnfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions andCharacteristics of Philadelphia's DropoutCrisis. 2000-2005 (Philadelphia YouthNetwork, 2006). Liza Herzog (Iherzog@philaedfund.org) is Senior ResearchAssociate at the Philadelphia EducationFund.

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