An Analysis of Baltimore’s Climateclimateknowledge.org/.../2/20/AOSS480_2011_Baltimore_presentation.pdf · Final Presentation –April 19, 2011 10 Baltimore’s social and economic

An Analysis of Baltimore’s Climate

Change Vulnerabilities and

Potential Adaptation Strategies

T. P. Grunert, T. S. Hackel, Z. Z. Hadzick, Y. Yang

AOSS 480: Climate Change Problem Solving

Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences

Final Presentation 19 April 2011

Presentation Agenda

Overview of Regions United States Climactic Regions

Northeast Region

Chesapeake Bay Area

Urban Baltimore

Baltimore Case Studies Eutrophication

Urban Heat Island Effect

Hurricane Isabel

Transportation

Adaptation Recommendations

2 Final Presentation – April 19, 2011

United States Regions

3

http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/regional-climate-change-impacts

Final Presentation – April 19, 2011

Northeast Region and Maryland

4

http://alabamamaps.ua.edu/contemporarymaps/usa/regional/index.html


Chesapeake Bay Area

5

engineerofknowledge.wordpress.com


Urban Drivers of Climate Change

Polluting industries

Commercial businesses

Heavy traffic

Heat Island Effect

Thermal efficiency and urban design

Land cover types


Urban Impacts of Climate Change

Coastal flooding risks

Rising sea levels

Higher storm surges

Water systems deficiencies

Increased flows

Saltwater intrusion

Increased pollutants

Increased water usage

Higher temperatures

Drought


Eutrophication Overview

Process by which bodies of water receive

an increase in organic matter loading (algae

blooms) principally due to inputs of nitrogen

and phosphorus

increased production of noxious algal blooms

decreased water clarity

altered food chains

severe depletion of dissolved oxygen



9

Nitrogen Deposition Hypoxia/Anoxia in Chesapeake

Galloway et al., 2008 Scavia, 2010




Baltimore’s social and economic sectors

closely integrated with the Chesapeake Bay

Impact of global climate change is

contentious topic of major concern

Restrict the overall amount of nitrogen and

phosphorous that enters into the

Chesapeake Bay

Eutrophication

11

Biodiversity

Nitrogen cycle


Eutrophication Temporal and Geographic Scale

Problem and solution spans temporal

timescale

Spans six states and a district including

Delaware, Maryland, New York,

Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia —

and the entire District of Columbia


Eutrophication Risk assessment

Probability that eutrophication will persist

into the future is extraordinarily high

Population growth will lead to more N and P

fertilizer and further contribute to eutrophication

Global warming will most likely further exacerbate

the predicament

13 13 Final Presentation – April 19, 2011

Urban Heat Island Effect

Urban areas warmer than rural surroundings

Cities have less vegetation and low albedo

surfaces

Higher temperatures aggravate heat related

illness

Increased photochemical smog

Increased air conditioning needs, increasing

peak energy demand


Urban Heat Island Effect Baltimore


One of the

strongest

measured heat

islands

Largest measured

land surface

temperature

difference was

10°C

Urban Heat Island Effect Temporal and Geographic Scale


Temperature difference noticed for 200 years

Exacerbated in recent years by denser cities

More people

More closely packed structures

Global warming will amplify impacts

Effects vary by location

Strong in northeast

Urban Heat Island Effect Risk and probability of occurrence


Will very likely persist into future

Increasing population exacerbates effects

Global warming will intensify impact

Without mitigation will have detrimental

effects on human health

Hurricane Isabel


"Hurricane History." National Hurricane Center

Hurricane Isabel

Highlighted these issues:

Sea-level rise

Storm surge

Sinking land mass

Impervious surfaces

Often takes a tragedy to bring attention

to these issues


Hurricane Isabel Obvious results of sea-level rise

Bay islands disappearing

Cliffs eroding

Low-lying farmlands becoming wetlands

Wetlands turning into ponds



Hurricane Isabel Past Lessons Learned

San Felipe-Okeechobee

Hurricane of 1928

Devastation:

Lake Okeechobee surge

of 6-9 ft

Over 1,800 flooding

causalities

Outcome:

Realization of affects on

lakes & bays

Hurricane Hazel – 1954

Devastation:

Humber River rose 20 ft

14 homes destroyed & 32

residents killed in 1 hour

Outcome:

Metropolitan Toronto and

Region Conservation

Authority established

Hurricane Effects Risk and Probability of Occurrence


High threat because of large amount of

water naturally displaced

Chesapeake Bay increases risk due to

water being trapped

Complacency due to sporadic strikes to

region

Transportation


Sea level rise

Inundation, receding land

Roads, railways, transit systems, airports

GHG emissions

Increasing contribution

MCAP goal

Transportation Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector


Transportation MCAP CO2 Reduction Goals


Year

Maryland's Goals

(From 2006 Base

Value)

2012 10% Reduction

2015 15% Reduction

2020 25% Reduction

2050 90% Reduction

Transportation Temporal and Geographic Scale


Years to decades

Planning and building infrastructure

Baltimore-Washington Metro Area

Major transit hub, including a number of bridges,

airports, and seaports

Adaptation Recommendations Baltimore

Implement impervious surface reduction

program

Tax credits for resurfacing with certified materials

Enhanced environmental/infrastructural

planning

Construction of riparian buffer zones

Planting/protecting trees

Preserving wetlands

Dikes, repaving/rerouting roads


Supplemental Recommendations Baltimore

Regulation and Taxation of N and P

Integrate efforts with existing policies and

programs

Update building and construction codes

Reduction of GHG emission from

transportation sector to meet MCAP goals


Evaluation of Recommendations

Pros

Addresses problems

Benefits public health

Preserves ecosystem

Long term economic benefits

Cons

Cost/short term economy

Follow through over extended time


Questions and Feedback


Mechanisms to Solve Problem

Currently effluent regulations on sewage

plants and other point sources

Interstate reduction agreement of N and P

Failed to include all states in Chesapeake Bay

watershed

Maryland Department of the Environment

Drafted the Maryland Policy for Nutrient Cap

Management And Trading In Maryland’s

Chesapeake Bay Watershed (nutrient trading

program)



Good start but more needs to be done…

Regulation and taxation throughout the entire

Chesapeake Bay watershed

Regulation Limit N and P

Riparian buffer zones required

Time limit to reach new N and P limitations

Lower effluent levels from point sources

Third party audit could routinely check to see if new

requirements are met



Timeline for new requirements

Taxation - based on amount of N and P

Revenue - R&D and enforcement

33

0 5 8 10

Time (years)

Reduce N & P by

50% during winter

and fall on ag fields

Reduce N & P by

75% during winter

and fall on ag fields

Eliminate N & P during

winter and fall on ag fields


Evaluation of Recommendations

Advantageous for human and ecosystem

health

Short-term costs but long-term benefits

Difficult with implementation because of

interstate communication, negotiation, and

governance

model off of current interstate regulations

Opposition because of increased costs


Eutrophication Climate Drivers

35

Ebi, Kristie L. Regional Impacts of Climate Change: Four Case Studies in the United States. Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2007. Print.


36

Most severe flooding in southern portions of Dorchester, Somerset, and

Queen Anne's Counties.

Hurricane Isabel Maryland County Map


Documents

An Analysis of Baltimore’s Climateclimateknowledge.org/.../2/20/AOSS480_2011_Baltimore_presentation.pdf · Final Presentation –April 19, 2011 10 Baltimore’s social and economic