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AMPO Travel Modeling Work GroupNovember 5, 2010
Ed Christopher Resource Center Planning TeamFederal Highway Administration
4749 Lincoln Mall Dr. Rm 600Matteson, IL 60443
Topics
• Boundaries
• 3-year CTPP/ACS
• 5-year CTPP
• TAZs/TADs
• PUMS/PUMAS
Update on Census Info and Planning Products/Getting Ready for TAZ
Delineation
3
Urban Areas
Urbanized Areas(50,000+)circa 1950
Urban Clusters(2,500 to 49,999)
circa 2000
Boundaries -- Some Background
http://rtc.ruralinstitute.umt.edu/
4
Transportation Perspective
(Census Defined) Urbanized Area (UZA)
Federal-Aid (Adjusted) Urban[ized] Area (FAUA)
Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA)
Non-Attainment Area
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm
5
Some Implications for Transportation
• New / Retired MPOs• New / Retired TMAs• Expanded MPOs & TMA• Changed Roadway Classifications• Data Reporting and reports• Funding and Financial Issues• Outdoor Advertising
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/census/faqa2cdt.htm
Hinges on Transportation Bill
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100K - Threshold
Grandfathering
200K - Project Selection Authority
1 Million+ Special Funding and Requirements
NARC - Status Quo
AASHTO -Somewhat Vague
FHWA - Internal
House - T+I Committee, HR ____
Senate -
http://www.ampo.org/assets/685_finalampopdfoverviewappro.pdf
What’s an MPO? A TMA?
7
Timing
2009 SAFETEA-LU expired
New Bill Expected (2011) ???
2010 Fed Register-Comments on UA Criteria
2012 New UAs Released (Springtime)
Register Notice on Proposed Criteria for Urban Area Boundaries (August 24, 2010)
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-20808.pdf
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-20808.htm
oo Use of Tracts as Analysis Unit (Initial Phase)
oo Reducing Jumps from 2.5 miles to 1.5oo Use of a National Land Cover Data Baseoo Changing Airport threshold from 10K to
2,500 enplanementsoo Eliminating the Central Place Conceptoo Establishing Minimum pop living
outside of group quartersoo Splitting Large Areasoo Naming Criteria
Highlights of Federal Register Notice
Comments due November 22, 2010
ACS Data Releases
Tract and Block Group
5-year Period
20,000+3-year Period
65,000+Annual
Data for the Previous Year Released in:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+Population
Size of AreaDataType
And then the CTPP
Census Transportation PlanningProducts (CTPP) Program
The CTPP is an umbrella program of Census related data products, custom tabulations, training, technical assistance, and research for the transportation community
CTPP History
http://www.trbcensus.com/articles/ctpphistory.pdf
12
CTPP then and Now
CTPPackagePrior to ACS
CTPProducts ProgramPost ACS
The CTPP program now includes • Many more Data products• Training and technical assistance
• On-call user support• Training classes and web seminars
• Research
Federal Technical Advisory GroupTRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (800 strong)Quarterly Newsletter -- Outreach -- Several Websites
A Lot is Coming at Us
3-year CTPP Data Product
CTPP 3-Year
September 2010
Oct/Nov 2010
2006, 2007, 2008
20,000 Pop. Areas
(County, Place, PUMAs)
Actual Flows
http://trbcensus.com/products
_______________
XXVXX
The 3-year Product Design
2008 Geography
MSA – EACH Principal City
Metropolitan Statistical Area
State-POW PUMA
State-PUMA (red = 2000 geo.)
State-Place
State-County-MCD
State-County
Nation (US Total)
Product Structure
3-Parts
Part 1- Place of Residence
Part 2- Place of Work
Part 3- Flows between Home and Work
On-Line Data Retrieval Extraction Software ~ Raw
Data Download
State
http://ctpp.transportation.org/Documents/CTPP_custom_tabulations_based_on_3yracs2006_2008.xls
The 3-year Product
County to County Flows are on the street
ftp://ftp.camsys.com/temp/outgoing/CTPP/New%20CTPP%20ACS/
3-year CTPP Product Summary
Highlights Low LightsBased on CTPP2000 Tables
Many NEW Univariate Tables
More Age Tables
Streamlined Race Tables
More HH and HH Lifecycle Tables
More English Proficiency Tables
Way more Flows Tables
Incomplete Coverage
RoundedReduced Number of Crosstabs with Mode
-- Travel time-- Household income-- Vehicle availability-- Age-- Time leaving home
Tables will have Suppression
-- Means based on 3 values -- 3 records in Flow
MOEs
Some Issues to be aware of
What year is the data? Period Estimate brought forward to year of releaseWhat Data to use? Reliability vs. Currency
3-year ACS (2006, 2007, 2008)
Significance Testing--Why do it?
MOE, MOE, MOE
http://www.edthefed.com/presentations/significance%20testing.ppt
Source: CTPP Data Profiles http://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/overview.aspx
A Compass for Understanding And Using ACS Data
Set of user-specific handbooks
Train-the trainer materialsE-learning ACS Tutorial
Annotated Presentations
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/UseData/Compass/compass_series.html
Working with ACS
What data should I use?
Travel Times for the 6-counties in NE Illinois
1. To compare with 1970, ‘80, ‘90 and 2000 Travel Times?
2. To compare with my town of 52,000 people?
3. To validate my 2008 vintage travel demand model?
Collapsing
Finally A word about Collapsing
CTPP products collapsing schema
NE Illinois (2009 3-year ACS)
And remember I noted Incomplete Coverage?
Gray = Less than 20K people and No data
““Where’s the Where’s the beefbeef Data?” Data?”
““It Looks Like Swiss Cheese”It Looks Like Swiss Cheese”X
New
Geography
Requires implementation of new disclosure avoidance (“masking”) techniques
5-year CTPP Data Product
• Cell Means and aggregates require 3 unweighted records
The are DRB rules
• For Pt 3 Flow Tables: 3 unweighted records for each table, each cell, with the exception of the 1-way Means of Trans. table
• 3 unweighted records for the marginal's in any cross-tabulation with Means of Trans.
5-year CTPP Data Product
NCHRP 08-79 ($550K) Producing Transportation Data Products from the ACS that Comply With Disclosure Rules
NCHRP is funded by State DOTs SP&R
Project schedule: Jan 2010-July 2011Need results to be applied to 2006-2010 ACS for the 5-year CTPP (delivery to software vendor in summer 2012)
Westat, Tom Krenzke, PI
“NEW” TAZs Traffic Analysis Zones
http://download.ctpp.transportation.org/TAZ_Rules/TAZ%20Delineation%20Business%20Rules_CTPP%20Final.pdf
• Defined by MPOs and State DOTS
• Software Deployed (Spring 2011)
• Developed in Summer 2011
• TAZs will nest with TADs
• GIS equivalency process
• Funded under Consolidated Purchase
TAZTraffic Analysis
Zone
Traditional Size
TADTraffic Analysis
District
20,000 population
What is an equivalency process?
Take the map at the right and using the states boundaries make 9 contiguous regions
It’s the same for TAZsBlocks
cluster into TAZs
A real world example
● Census Blocks will make up TAZs
● TAZs will nest with TADs
● TADs will nest in Counties
●Nesting with Tracts is optional
TAZ Size
CB recommends~600 persons
corresponds to the minimumthreshold for 2010 Census Block Groups
Threshold is guideline not a requirement
TAZs may be defined with fewer than 600 residents or workers
Data reliability and availability improves as population size increases
Bigger is Better
The Schedule
Nov 2010 - Agencies verify contact names (AASHTO Website)
Jan 2011 - Final delivery of Software by CaliperFeb 2011 - Web-based training
Feb 25 and Feb 28
March through April 2011 - Delivery of software and Census 2010 data and geographic files (Rolling basis)
3- Months to delineate TAZ/TADs
June through July 2011 - Files returned to CB Geography
Creating TAZs
http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/mtf-files/PPT_12_TAZ%20White%20Paper_NOV07_FINAL_CS_Keli_Wu.ppt
http://www.fsutmsonline.net/images/uploads/reports/FDOT_TAZ_White_Paper.pdf
Florida Standard Urban Transportation Model Structure
White Paper on Recommended Approach to Delineating TAZ
5-year Geography and Flows
• Asymmetrical Flows• Small Areas defined by MPOs in MPO areas and States Elsewhere• Tracts are Defaults for Small Areas• Default TADs under discussion
PUMAs? -- What are they?
PUMAs are the zones used from PUMS data
Public Use Microdata Sample
PUMS data is based on individual census records and is available only at large geographic areas. Think of the PUMS dataset as the raw, disaggregate census sample data, at a large enough geographic level necessary to protect the confidentiality of the census respondent.
ACSSample
Standard Tabs
PUMS Records
Why are PUMAs Important?
Let’s Look at Annual Data
● Annual Data
● 65K+
● Note the areas in gray
● We call this Swiss Cheese
NE Illinois (2008 pop estimate)
Chicago
Why are PUMAs Important?
NE Illinois (PUMAs)
Tabulation Area for ACS
● Represent 100K
● Complete Coverage
● Smaller than Counties
● NO Swiss Cheese
How many PUMAs should this area have?
http://www.census.gov/geo/www/maps/puma5pct.htm
City of Chicago 2000 PUMAs
2,896,016 (2000 Pop)
Why are PUMAs Important?
- Defines areas for analysis - Tabulation Area for ACS - Custom Tabulation
Who Defines Them? - The Community - Led by State Data Center
When are They Defined? - Summer 2011 - Criteria out Spring 2010
PUMA Resources
http://usa.ipums.org/usa/
IPUMS maintains the PUMS data back to the 1850 census and has and online table generator
Minnesota Population Center
CTPP Webinar on IPUMShttp://ctpp.transportation.org/Pages/webinardirectory.aspx
Compass Handbook by Census Bureauhttp://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/handbooks/ACSPUMS.pdf
What else?
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-23373.pdf
http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-23373.htm
5 year regular ACS
Fed Register Notice on ACS 5-Year Data Product Plans
Block Groups not on FactFinder and loaded
with suppression
Data due out in December 2010
’05, ‘06, ’07. ’08, ’09 Data Years
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/guidance_for_data_users/e_tutorial/
Census Bureau E-Tutorial and ACS
43
Just in
American FactFinder to get facelift in January
http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/tour.html
Take the A
dvance
Tour
And now for the aftermath
45
To Learn more about the CTPP
http://www.dot.gov/ctpp
http://www.TRBcensus.com
http://ctpp.transportation.org
Join the CTPP List Servehttp://www.trbcensus.com/maillist.html
