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AMM 6 th Annual Aerospace Materials Conference24 - 25 April 2012Pittsburgh, PA
AMM 6 th Annual Aerospace Materials Conference24 - 25 April 2012Pittsburgh, PA
Paul FieldingBusiness DevelopmentATK Aerospace Structures Division(937)[email protected]
Paul FieldingBusiness DevelopmentATK Aerospace Structures Division(937)[email protected]
ATK Aerospace Structures Division (ATK - ASD)
F-35 Lightning II
Stringer & Frame
forming
machines -ASFM
Co-cured Wing &
Fuselage Skins
Composite Fan
Containment Cases
Delta
Atlas V
Forward
Frustum
Aft & Fwd
Skirts
Intertank
Thrust
Structure
Interstage
Stringers
• Aircraft Structures
• Radomes, Antennas, Apertures, Sensors
• GEnx Engine Fan Case
• Boeing 767 Counterbalance springs
• Rolls Royce WXB Rear Fan Case
• AW609 Fuselage skins
• Business/Regional Jet demo structures
• Launch Vehicle Structures• Rocket Motor Cases
Case Wrapping
Machine
CommercialA350 XWB
• Fuselage Stringers
• Fuselage Frames
Military Launch
ATK AEROSPACE STRUCTURESATK AEROSPACE STRUCTURES
Delta IV
• ATK Parent Company $4B+ in Revenues• ATK ASD focus is on primary structures, assemblies, mission systems, and automation
Examples:
Radial vs. Turbine engines
� Wright, P&W, Lycoming
� Allison, GE, RR, Westinghouse
� Allied Signal, Garrett, Honeywell, Williams
CRT vs. LCD televisions (220+ vs. 22+)
� Admiral, Dumont, Emerson, Packard-Bell
� Hitachi, Matsushita, Sanyo, Sony
� Durabrand, LG (Goldstar), Samsung, Vizio
Composites represent a game changing technology to the aerostructures market
Different, Difficult, Exotic, Expensive, High-performance, Lightweight, Un-proven
Game Changing
Opportunity
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Lbs
(M)
Commercial Aircraft "Fly Away" Composite Structure (Fcst Jan 2010)
Regional Jets
Business Jets
Boeing
Airbus
Assumes no Airbus/Boeing New Single Aisle until after 2020
Assumes B777X in 2018
Aerostructures Market Revenue 2009Metallic, Composite & Assembly
Data from 2010 Aerostructures Market Report, Counterpoint LLC
• Counterpoint Market Intelligence (CMI) estimates total aerostructures sales of ~$40B+ in 2012
• Value of composite structures is ~$8B
� 20% of total revenue� Grows to ~$18B (2X+) by 2019� 35% of total revenue
• Doubling of output in 7 years will require Capital Investment, Development
of Engineering talent, Training of Factory Labor
• Will the adoption of composites continue , plateau or decline?
• Primes (Boeing, Airbus, Bombardier, Embraer, etc)• Seven (7) “Super Tier 1’s” (Spirit, MHI, Alenia, et c), companies with > $1B in revenues• Tier 1’s = most of their production goes to the Pri mes• Tier 2’s = majority of product goes to Tier 1’s, so me goes to Primes
Data from 2010 Aerostructures Market Report, Counterpoint LLC
Level Rev ($B) % to Total
Prime 17.4 43%
Tier 1 15.6 39%
Tier 2 to Tier 1 4.4 11%
Tier 2 to Primes 3.0 7%
Total 40.4 100%
Value by Tier Level
• As delivery rates grow the “pie gets bigger”• Legacy program content offloaded to make room for new programs at OEM or Super
Tier 1 (Example: Aernova obtains A350 horizontal as Airbus Spain builds A350 wing)
43%
39%
7%11%
Prime In house Tier 1 to Prime
Tier 2 to Prime Tier 2 to Tier 1
$10M $50M $100M $500M $1,000M $5,000M
Components
Light Assemblies
Major
assemblies,
some design
Sub assemblies
Integrated
Major
Assemblies
Revenues (Aerostructures)
= Metals focus = Composites Focus
= Metals focus, with some
Composites Capability
Shumate Feb 2011
= Metals focus, with strong
Composites Capability
• Smaller companies are either metallic or composites focused• Mid size companies are trying to acquire composites capabilities• Expansion and potential consolidation of supply bas e creates new Tier 1’s or “Super Tier 2”
Aerostructures Landscape
Super
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 1
Evolution of Structures Process Landscape
ATL = Automated Tape Laying
DF= Drape Forming
TP = Thermoplastics
RTM= Resin Transfer Molding
HLU = Hand Lay UpAFP = Automated Fiber Placement
RI = Resin Infusion
ASFM = Automated Stiffener Forming Machine
• New processes will emerge with next generation aircraft
• Out of Autoclave, Stitching, Preforms, Thermoplastic & Expanded role of Resin Infusion?
Where the Processes Fall in the Tier Structure
OEMs (Airbus, B777)
Super Tier 1 (Airbus,
Boeing B787)
Wings & Empennage
Tier 1 & Tier 2
Floor beams,
Horizontals, Spars,
Frames, Shear ties
Tier 2
Asia / N. Africa /
Mexico / US/ EU
OEMs & Super
Tier 1 (Airbus,
Boeing B787)
Fuselage
Tier 2 Stringers &
Frames A350, LE
Higher Capital Processes Correlate With Higher Tier SuppliersHigher Capital Processes Correlate With Higher Tier Suppliers
Capital ExpenseLow High
HLU RI RTM TP ASFM DF ATL AFP
IP C
on
ten
t /
Co
mp
lexi
ty
Wing
Fuselage
Spars
Frames
Floor beams
Doors
Fairings
OEM &
Super Tier
1
Tier 2
US / EU / Japan
Tier 2
Asia (China)
Capital Expense HighLow
Advanced Processes Tied to Complexity… and Part IP?Advanced Processes Tied to Complexity… and Part IP?
CSeries
CWB
China
CSeries
Wing
Bomb.
Another View ….Where the Processes Fall in the Tier Structure
Summary
• Composites are definitely here to stay
• Double-digit annual growth projected
• Considerable upside potential on new
innovations and applications
• Next generation(s) of engineers have greater
exposure to, and knowledge of, composites
• Certain applications will heavily favor
composites, certain applications will heavily
favor metals
• The battleground will be “in the middle”
where it can go either way. Hard work and
innovative thinking will carry the day
The heavy lifting begins
