Questions? Contact: Judi Jones [email protected] Value of Information in Bayesian Congestion Games ABSTRACT: In recent years, commuters are increasingly relying on traffic navigation applications (e.g., Waze, Google maps) to decide their routes and departure times. This talk focuses on the question of estimating the social value of such navigation systems. We present a game theoretic framework to model routing strategies in environments where the route costs are affected by a random network state, and commuters have heterogeneous access to information regarding the state. The framework enables modeling of commuters’ private beliefs of the network state and of the other commuters. We conduct equilibrium analysis of Bayesian congestion games under a range of information structures introduced by navigation applications. Our results suggest that access to information reduces costs to individual informed commuters, but the relative value of information can be zero (or even negative) if many commuters are highly informed. Moreover, there exists a fraction of informed commuters above which the aggregate social cost may increase. BIO: Saurabh Amin is Robert N. Noyce Career Development Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). His research focuses on the design and implementation of high confidence network control algorithms for infrastructure systems. He works on robust diagnostics and control problems that involve using networked systems to facilitate the monitoring and control of large-scale critical infrastructures, including transportation, water, and energy distribution systems. He also studies the effect of security attacks and random faults on the survivability of networked systems, and designs incentive- compatible control mechanisms to reduce network risks. Dr. Amin received his Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley in 2011. His research is supported by NSF CPS FORCES project, NSF CAREER award, Google Faculty Research award, and Siebel Energy Institute Grant. . Saurabh Amin Massachusetts Institute of Technology Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Friday, October 7, 2016 3:30 – 4:30 pm • 1500 EECS Sponsored by: Bosch, Ford, and Toyota

aminvhosts.eecs.umich.edu/control_seminar/fall16/amin.pdfAmin received his Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley in 2011. His research is supported

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Page 1: aminvhosts.eecs.umich.edu/control_seminar/fall16/amin.pdfAmin received his Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley in 2011. His research is supported

Questions?Contact:[email protected]

ValueofInformationinBayesianCongestionGames

ABSTRACT: In recent years, commuters are increasingly relying on traffic navigation applications (e.g., Waze,Googlemaps)todecidetheirroutesanddeparturetimes.Thistalkfocusesonthequestionofestimatingthesocialvalue of such navigation systems. We present a game theoretic framework to model routing strategies inenvironmentswheretheroutecostsareaffectedbyarandomnetworkstate,andcommutershaveheterogeneousaccess to information regarding the state.The frameworkenablesmodeling of commuters’ private beliefs of thenetworkstateandoftheothercommuters.WeconductequilibriumanalysisofBayesiancongestiongamesunderarange of information structures introduced by navigation applications. Our results suggest that access toinformationreducescoststo individualinformedcommuters,buttherelativevalueof informationcanbezero(orevennegative) ifmanycommutersarehighly informed.Moreover,thereexistsafractionof informedcommutersabovewhichtheaggregatesocialcostmayincrease.

BIO: Saurabh Amin is Robert N. Noyce Career Development Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering,Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).His research focuses on thedesign andimplementation of high confidence network control algorithms for infrastructure systems. He works on robustdiagnosticsandcontrolproblemsthatinvolveusingnetworkedsystemstofacilitatethemonitoringandcontroloflarge-scalecriticalinfrastructures,includingtransportation,water,andenergydistributionsystems.Healsostudiestheeffectofsecurityattacksand randomfaultsonthesurvivabilityofnetworkedsystems,anddesigns incentive-compatiblecontrolmechanismstoreducenetwork risks.Dr.AminreceivedhisPh.D. inSystemsEngineeringfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley in 2011.His research is supportedbyNSFCPS FORCESproject,NSFCAREERaward,GoogleFacultyResearchaward,andSiebelEnergyInstituteGrant.

SaurabhAminMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology

DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering

Friday,October7,2016

3:30–4:30pm•1500EECS

Sponsoredby:Bosch,Ford,andToyota