Americas Perfect Storm Irwin Kirsch ETS National Coalition for Literacy February 7, 2008

America’sPerfect StormAmerica’sPerfect Storm

Irwin KirschETS

National Coalition for Literacy

February 7, 2008

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved.04/10/23 2

Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future

• Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills among large segments of our student and adult populations

• An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of our population, powered by the highest immigration rates in nearly a century

• The continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure, requiring higher levels of skills from an increasing proportion of workers


Inadequate Skill Distributions


Literacy surveys conducted by ETS have represented literacy along scales divided into 5 levels. National and international committees have judged that skills in Levels 3 and higher are needed for participation in modern societies.

Less Proficient More Proficient

National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS, 1992)


150

200

250

300

350

177, 0-8 years of schooling

231, 9-12 years of schooling

270;268, HS Diploma; GED

294, some college

308, 2-yearr degree

322, 4-year degree

336, graduate degree

< Level 1

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Literacy skills are related to highest level of educational attainment


27

58

88

98

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5

Percentage-Passing GED

SOURCE: The Literacy Proficiencies of GED Examinees: Results from the GED-NALS Comparison Study. (1995). Baldwin, J., Kirsch, I., Rock, D., & Yamamoto, K.

**

Adults in Levels 3 and higher had a better than 90 percent chance of passing the GED.


Mean Prose Proficiencies of Employed U.S. Adults and Their Percentile Ranks on the International Prose Distribution, by Major Occupational Group

Occupational Group MeanScore

Percentile Rank on International

Scale

U.S. Rank Among 19 High-Income

Countries

Managers and professionals 316 77nd 3rd

Technical and associated professionals 313 76th 2nd

Clerical and administrative support 291 62nd 10th

Service and lower-level sales 269 46th 15th

Craft workers 245 31st 16th

Assemblers and operatives 244 31st 13th (tie)

Laborers and agricultural/fishery workers

242 30th 15th

Source: IALS Survey. 1994


35 3020

14

41

139

33

17

2028 33

49

12

32

33

44

33

30

100

80

60

40

20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Percentage of Adults 16-65 Years Old at:Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5

All Adults Asian Black Hispanic White

Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century.

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Levels 4/5


High School Graduation rates peaked at 77% in 1969 and have remained in the 70% range since 1995.

Graduates as a Percentage of 17-Year-Old Population

Graduates are of regular day-school programs.Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics


Reading scores have remained flat since the release of A Nation at Risk report in 1983.Math scores have fared only slightly better than reading.

NAEP Assessment Years

Reading 1984 1990 1996 2004

Age 13 257 257 258 259

Age 17 289 290 288 285

Math 1986 1992 1996 2004

Age 13 269* 273* 274* 281

Age 17 302* 307 307 307

* Significantly different from 2004


Average achievement gaps in both reading and math have remained stubbornly unchanged.

Reading 1984 1994 2004

White-Black

Age 13 26 31* 22

Age 17 32 30 29

White-Hispanic

Age 13 23 30* 24

Age 17 27 33 29

Math 1986 1996 2004

White-Black

Age 13 24 29 27

Age 17 29 27 28

White-Hispanic

Age 13 19 25 23

Age 17 24 21 24

* Significantly different from 2004


Math Reading Science

U.S. Average Score 483 495 491

OECD Average 500 494 500

U.S. Rank Among 29 Countries

24th 15th 20th

The U.S. is not among the world’s leaders in any area of educational achievement.


Source: International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS): tabulations by authors.

Age Group MeanScore

Percentile Rank of Mean Score on

IALS Scale

U.S. Rank

16—25 278 52nd 14th (tie)

26—35 275 50th 11th (tie)

36—45 284 56th 5th

46—55 277 52nd 3rd

56—65 266 44th 2nd

Mean Prose, Document and Quantitative Scores of U.S. Adults in Selected Age Groups and Their Rank Among 19 Countries in the IALS Assessment


Shifting Demographics


Growth 1980-2000

Growth 2000-2020

Natives, 25-54, All races 26.7 0.0

Natives 55+, All races 2.7 13.3

Immigrants 9.3 6.0

TOTAL 38.7 19.4

Numbers represent millions of adults

America’s labor force will grow more slowly over the next 20 years, with almost none of the growth expected to come from native-born workers.


Time PeriodPopulation

Growth(millions)

NetInternational

Migration(millions)

Net Immigration

as a Percentage of

Population Change

April 2000 – July 2005 (Actual)

15.0 6.3 42

2005–2010 Projected 13.4 6.7 50

2011-2015 Projected 13.4 7.1 53

Immigration is projected to account for more than half of our population growth between now an 2015.


Immigration patterns have changed dramatically over the past 100 years. New immigrants to the U.S. are quite diverse with respect to their country of origin.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1820–1940 1951–60 1971–80 1991-96

Years

Proportions

AsiaCentral/SouthAmericaCanadaEuropeAustralia andNew ZealandAfrica


Educational AttainmentNumber

(millions)Percentage

1-12 years, no diploma 1.7 34

high school diploma or GED 1.1 23

13-15 years .8 15

Bachelor’s degree .8 17

Master’s or higher degree .6 11

Total 5.0 100

Between 2000-2004 new immigrants 18 years of age and older entered the U.S. with a broad range of educational backgrounds


Educational Attainment

OnlySpeaksEnglish

(%)

SpeaksEnglish

Very Well(%)

SpeaksEnglish

Well

(%)

DoesNot

SpeakEnglish

Well (%)

DoesNot

Speak English

(%)

1-12 years, no diploma

6 6 9 32 47

High school diploma or GED

9 16 19 36 21

13-15 years 16 30 24 21 9

Bachelor’s degree

14 36 28 17 5

Master’s or higher degree

11 48 27 12 3

Total 10 22 19 26 23

80% of new immigrants without a high school diploma report that they do not speak English well or at all.



TotalBirths

Out-of-WedlockBirths

Percentage Out of

Wedlock

<12 or 12, no diploma 563,288 350,847 62.2

12 years, diploma or GED

743,151 381,060 51.3

13-15 Years 666,328 242,920 36.7

Bachelor’s degree 268,238 33,669 12.6

Master’s or higher degree

62,313 2,691 4.3

All 2,298,318 1,011,077 44.0

Source: 2004 American Community Surveys; public-use files; tabulations by authors.

44% of births to women under 30 are out of wedlock. The majority of these births take place among women with either no high school diploma or no postsecondary education


A Changing Economy


Occupational group

1984millions

2000millions

Absolutechange in millions of

adults

Percentagechange

All 16+ 105.0 135.0 30.0 29.0

High literacy 34.0 54.0 20.0 57.0

Moderate literacy 70.0 80.0 10.0 14.3

Jobs associated with college-level skills and education accounted for two-thirds of the job growth between 1984 and 2000.


Occupational group

2004millions

2014millions

Absolutechange in millions of

adults

Percentagechange

All 16+ 146.0 165.0 19.0 13.0

High literacy 49.0 58.0 9.0 18.0

Moderate literacy 97.0 107.0 10.0 10.0

Jobs requiring high levels of education and skills are projected to account for almost half of the job growth over the next decade.


Educational Attainment1979

(millions)2004

(millions)Percentage

change

No HS diploma or GED 1.5 .96 -39.0

HS diploma or GED 1.8 1.4 -23.0

1-3 years of college; AA degree 2.0 1.7 -13.0

Bachelor’s degree 2.736 2.702 -1.2

Master’s or higher degree 3.0 3.5 15.0

All 1.879 1.902 1.2

The expected lifetime earnings of males have changed dramatically between 1979 and 2004 resulting in a growing inequality favoring those with higher levels of education.


1979 2004

HS vs. College 50% 96%

College vs. Grad. 11% 30%

HS vs. Grad 67% 254%


Wage and salary earnings reflected a shared prosperity through 1975. Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.

Percentage Change in Earnings Since 1961

Tabulations of annual March Current Population Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.


What might the future look like?


70 million adults in levels 1/2

Distribution of Literacy Scores Found in the National Adult Literacy Survey (1992)



70 million increase to 119 million

in 2030


Average literacy scores are expected to decline between 1992 and 2030, with an increase in the amount of inequality.



Over the next 25 years or so, as better-educated individuals leave

the workforce they will be replaced by those who, on average, have

lower levels of education and skill. Over this same period, nearly half

of the projected job growth will be concentrated in occupations

associated with higher education and skill levels.

This means that tens of millions more of our students and adults will

be less able to qualify for higher paying jobs. Instead, they will be

competing not only with each other and millions of newly arrived

immigrants but also with equally (or better) skilled workers in lower

wage economies around the world.

The formidable challenge for Americans will not be finding jobs, it

will be finding ones that pay living wages and provide opportunities.


Do we have to accept a future with increasing economic and social

polarization? The answer is no provided we are willing to invest in

policies that will improve the literacy and numeracy skills of all

residents.

While new policies focusing only on education and skills will not

solve all the challenges associated with existing inequalities, without a

human capital agenda there is little chance of improving economic

opportunities among key segments of our population.

We need to understand that it is both the growth of human capital

and how it is distributed that is important for America


So what happens if we fail to take serious actions?

Neither our economy nor our society faces imminent

collapse.

However, we are likely to witness a more subtle danger ―

one where we find ourselves slowly losing ground relative to

other countries while becoming more socially and economically

divided.

And, if that happens more than our standard of living is at

stake. Benjamin Friedman in his book The Moral

Consequences of Economic Growth links our economic well

being to the fabric of our society.


Let us not be content to wait and see

what will happen, but give us the determination

to make the right things happen.

— Horace Mann


For more information contact:

Irwin KirschETSPrinceton, NJ 08541

e-mail: [email protected]

Office: (609) 734-1516

www.ets.org/stormreport


Documents

Americas Perfect Storm Irwin Kirsch ETS National Coalition for Literacy February 7, 2008