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Climate Change Expert Group
Ambition
Drivers
Participation
Gregory Briner Climate Justice Dialogue – Mobilising Bold Action
4 April 2013
Drivers
3 Climate Change Expert Group
The world’s population is growing
Source: UN DESA
4 Climate Change Expert Group
Emissions growth is being driven by the rise of the middle class
Source: Gapminder/UNDP
5 Climate Change Expert Group Source: UNDP
Emissions growth is being driven by the rise of the middle class
Source: Gapminder/UNDP
6 Climate Change Expert Group
Source: Gapminder/UNDP
7 Climate Change Expert Group
Source: Gapminder/UNDP
8 Climate Change Expert Group
Source: UNDP
Poverty eradication remains a priority for many developing countries
Source: Gapminder/UNDP
9 Climate Change Expert Group
The world’s population is also getting older
Source: UN DESA
10 Climate Change Expert Group
Participation
10.5%
89.5%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
36.6%
41.5%
21.9% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
43
48104
Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
Number of countries
38
157
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No commitment
Number of countries
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
36.1%
41.7%
22.2% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
11
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
202012
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
2020
Country participation: Kyoto vs. 2020 pledges
10.5%
89.5%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
36.6%
41.5%
21.9% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
43
48104
Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
Number of countries
38
157
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No commitment
Number of countries
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
36.1%
41.7%
22.2% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
11
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
202012
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
2020
10.5%
89.5%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
36.6%
41.5%
21.9% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
43
48104
Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
Number of countries
38
157
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No commitment
Number of countries
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
36.1%
41.7%
22.2% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
11
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
202012
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
2020
10.5%
89.5%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
36.6%
41.5%
21.9% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
43
48104
Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
Number of countries
38
157
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No commitment
Number of countries
13.2%
86.8%
KP CP2 commitment
No KP CP2 commitment
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
36.1%
41.7%
22.2% Mitigation target
Mitigation action
No pledge
11
Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
202012
Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in
2020
Possible incentives for participation
Co-benefits, e.g. air quality, energy access,
health benefits, biodiversity protection
An agreement that enables countries to pursue economic growth and reduce poverty
Access to financial support, technology and capacity building
Access to market mechanisms
The private sector and civil society also need to participate
Source: UNFCCC
14 Climate Change Expert Group
Ambition EuropeAidIn Conclusion…..
15 Climate Change Expert Group
Possible links between participation and ambition in the post-2020 agreement
Possible components of ambition: headline numbers, scope, period of application, accounting framework
Provisions for mitigation and other aspects of the post-2020 agreement could be ramped up over time
Widespread participation could reduce emissions leakage and competitiveness concerns
Countries willing to take the lead could demonstrate the benefits of a transition to a low carbon economy
16 Climate Change Expert Group
Bali Action Plan agreed
Kyoto Protocol signed
UNFCCC signed
Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report
