23
Lithium: Developer AJM.asx Speculative Buy Share Price Valuation $0.32 Price Target (12 month) $0.35 Brief Business Description: Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Chairman & MD Major Shareholders Allan Buckler (Shazo) (15.1%) Terry Smith (Hartco) (14.4%) Company Address Issued Capital 968.2m - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted Cash (30 Jun 16e) A$5.2m Debt (30 Jun 16e) A$18.5m EV EV/Resource Spod. EV/Reserve Spod. Prelim. (A$m) FY18e FY19e FY20e Prod (spod Mt) 0.102 0.196 0.242 Op Cash Flw 64.5 102.1 98.8 Norm NPAT 58.3 90.5 79.0 CF/Share (cps) 4.3 6.8 5.9 EPS (cps) 5.9 9.0 7.7 P/E 4.8 3.1 3.6 Mt Li2O Spod. Resources (Li2O) 35.7 1.04% 6.2 Reserve (Li2O) 18.4 1.07% 3.3 Trent Barnett Head of Research Ph: +61 8 9268 3052 E: [email protected] Analyst has a beneficial interest in AJM.asx 1133.9m A$203.3m A$238.1m A$216.6m A$34.9/t A$66.0/t Subiaco, WA, 6008 Large deposit, ability to sign offtake agreements, sensible ramp-up plans. James Brown (MD) 17 May 2016 $0.210 Large spodumene development in WA with no impediments to signing offtake. Units 5 & 6, 25 Hamilton St ALTURA MINING LIMITED (AJM) An advanced Pilgangoora lithium project AJM has been developing its Pilgangoora lithium project since 2010 (having acquired the ground in 2001). The Company has a resource at Pilgangoora of 36Mt @1.05% Li2O and a reserve of 18.5Mt @1.07% Li2O. The deposit does not contain tantalite. The Company has completed a FS and is progressing to a DFS. The FS estimates capex to be A$129m (~$160m including working capital) based on a 1.4Mtpa operation. We believe that a 1.4Mtpa start-up operating with a potential expansion to 2Mtpa is a sensible way to enter the market. Current LCE demand is ~200kt pa and the 1.4Mtpa operation will add ~31ktpa (ie 15%) of LCE. Remember, every 1 million new electric vehicles (EVs) requires roughly 20kt LCE (Tesla vehicles require more). Combined with competitor projects, it means there is reasonable short term LCE supply that could enter the market, and AJM bringing on a project of 10% of current supply is aggressive enough, in our view. The ability to increase to 2Mtpa is positive for off-take should demand grow faster than anticipated. The simple flow sheet (does not depend on tantalite credits) is another positive for AJM. Note, we assume are more conservative on recoveries than the study work to date (we assume 75% versus Company estimate of ~83%). Binding offtake with customer an AJM shareholder AJM has a binding off-take agreement with Lionergy (also a shareholder of AJM) for 100ktpa of spodumene (~16ktpa LCE) which is around half of AJM’s expected production. AJM also has a non-binding MOU for off-take with Optimum Nano Battery Co. Lionergy has been in the Chinese lithium industry for 20 years. Optimum Nano has 26% market share of EV lithium batteries in the Chinese domestic market. Critically, AJM has had control over off-take. Coal assets conservatively valued low AJM has a medium term plan to divest the Indonesian coal assets (as announced in 2014). It was intended to list them on the SGX, but that is on hold. The mines are currently operating at ~0.75Mtpa (AJM interest varies from 30-70%). However, cash flows are low, and we attribute minimal value for these assets. We understand that the US$12m debt/vendor finance is non-recourse back to AJM, hence the track record of negotiating extensions. Initiate with Speculative Buy We are initiating on AJM with a Speculative Buy. We believe the lithium project is progressing well. Although head grade is lower than neighbouring projects, we are very encouraged with the advanced negotiations that AJM has had with off-take partners. Current and expected spodumene selling prices are high enough for projects to carry weaker head grades, the key is an ability to sell the product into the market. We believe that AJM appears very well advanced on that front. An ability to sign offtakes quickly is very important for debt financing. It is also critical given there is no liquid spot market to sell spodumene. We are initiating with a Speculative Buy recommendation. The Speculative aspect is pending financing. We have a 32cps base valuation (assume dilution of additional ~370m shares). We have a spot valuation of 46cps. Note, we assume an expansion to 2Mtpa in 2019. The DFS due in Q3 is an important milestone. Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website www.hartleys.com.au 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 . 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60. 70. 80. 90. May-16 Jan-16 Sep-15 Jun-15 Volume - RHS AJM Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS A$ M Altura Mining Ltd Source: IRESS

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Page 1: ALTURA MINING LIMITED (AJM)media.abnnewswire.net/media/en/docs/83639-Hartleys... · Hartleys Limited (AJM)Altura Mining Limited 17 May 2016 Page 2 of 23 SUMMARY MODEL Altura Mining

Page 1 of 23

Altura Mining Limited (AJM)

Lithiu

m: D

eve

loper

AJM.asxSpeculative Buy

Share Price

Valuation $0.32

Price Target (12 month) $0.35

Brief Business Description:

Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion

Chairman & MD

Major Shareholders

Allan Buckler (Shazo) (15.1%)

Terry Smith (Hartco) (14.4%)

Company Address

Issued Capital 968.2m

- fully diluted

Market Cap

- fully diluted

Cash (30 Jun 16e) A$5.2m

Debt (30 Jun 16e) A$18.5m

EV

EV/Resource Spod.

EV/Reserve Spod.

Prelim. (A$m) FY18e FY19e FY20e

Prod (spod Mt) 0.102 0.196 0.242

Op Cash Flw 64.5 102.1 98.8

Norm NPAT 58.3 90.5 79.0

CF/Share (cps) 4.3 6.8 5.9

EPS (cps) 5.9 9.0 7.7

P/E 4.8 3.1 3.6

Mt Li2O Spod.

Resources (Li2O) 35.7 1.04% 6.2

Reserve (Li2O) 18.4 1.07% 3.3

Trent Barnett

Head of Research

Ph: +61 8 9268 3052

E: [email protected]

Analyst has a beneficial interest in AJM.asx

1133.9m

A$203.3m

A$238.1m

A$216.6m

A$34.9/t

A$66.0/t

Subiaco, WA, 6008

Large deposit, ability to sign offtake agreements,

sensible ramp-up plans.

James Brown (MD)

17 May 2016

$0.210

Large spodumene development in WA with no

impediments to signing offtake.

Units 5 & 6, 25 Hamilton St

ALTURA MINING LIMITED (AJM)

An advanced Pilgangoora lithium project AJM has been developing its Pilgangoora lithium project since 2010 (having

acquired the ground in 2001). The Company has a resource at Pilgangoora

of 36Mt @1.05% Li2O and a reserve of 18.5Mt @1.07% Li2O. The deposit

does not contain tantalite. The Company has completed a FS and is

progressing to a DFS. The FS estimates capex to be A$129m (~$160m

including working capital) based on a 1.4Mtpa operation.

We believe that a 1.4Mtpa start-up operating with a potential expansion to

2Mtpa is a sensible way to enter the market. Current LCE demand is ~200kt

pa and the 1.4Mtpa operation will add ~31ktpa (ie 15%) of LCE. Remember,

every 1 million new electric vehicles (EVs) requires roughly 20kt LCE (Tesla

vehicles require more).

Combined with competitor projects, it means there is reasonable short term

LCE supply that could enter the market, and AJM bringing on a project of 10%

of current supply is aggressive enough, in our view. The ability to increase to

2Mtpa is positive for off-take should demand grow faster than anticipated.

The simple flow sheet (does not depend on tantalite credits) is another

positive for AJM. Note, we assume are more conservative on recoveries than

the study work to date (we assume 75% versus Company estimate of ~83%).

Binding offtake with customer an AJM shareholder AJM has a binding off-take agreement with Lionergy (also a shareholder of

AJM) for 100ktpa of spodumene (~16ktpa LCE) which is around half of AJM’s

expected production. AJM also has a non-binding MOU for off-take with

Optimum Nano Battery Co. Lionergy has been in the Chinese lithium industry

for 20 years. Optimum Nano has 26% market share of EV lithium batteries

in the Chinese domestic market. Critically, AJM has had control over off-take.

Coal assets conservatively valued low

AJM has a medium term plan to divest the Indonesian coal assets (as

announced in 2014). It was intended to list them on the SGX, but that is on

hold. The mines are currently operating at ~0.75Mtpa (AJM interest varies

from 30-70%). However, cash flows are low, and we attribute minimal value

for these assets. We understand that the US$12m debt/vendor finance is

non-recourse back to AJM, hence the track record of negotiating extensions.

Initiate with Speculative Buy We are initiating on AJM with a Speculative Buy. We believe the lithium

project is progressing well. Although head grade is lower than neighbouring

projects, we are very encouraged with the advanced negotiations that AJM

has had with off-take partners. Current and expected spodumene selling

prices are high enough for projects to carry weaker head grades, the key is

an ability to sell the product into the market. We believe that AJM appears

very well advanced on that front. An ability to sign offtakes quickly is very

important for debt financing. It is also critical given there is no liquid spot

market to sell spodumene. We are initiating with a Speculative Buy

recommendation. The Speculative aspect is pending financing.

We have a 32cps base valuation (assume dilution of additional ~370m

shares). We have a spot valuation of 46cps. Note, we assume an expansion

to 2Mtpa in 2019. The DFS due in Q3 is an important milestone.

Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000

Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single

factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys

website www.hartleys.com.au

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

.

10.

20.

30.

40.

50.

60.

70.

80.

90.

May-16Jan-16Sep-15Jun-15

Volume - RHS

AJM Shareprice - LHS

Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS

A$ M

Altura Mining Ltd

Source: IRESS

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 2 of 23

SUMMARY MODEL

Altura Mining Ltd Share Price

AJM $0.210 Speculative Buy

Key Market Information Directors Company Information

Share Price $0.210 No Chairman (role rotates among non-exec) Units 5 & 6, 25 Hamilton St

Market Capitalisation - ordinary A$238m James Brown (MD) Subiaco, WA, 6008

Net Debt (cash) $13m Paul Mantell (Exec) Ph +61 8 9488 5100

Market Capitalisation - fully diluted A$238m Allan Buckler (Non-exec)

EV A$251m BT Kuan (Non-exec)

Issued Capital 968.2m Dan O'Neill (Non-exec) www.alturamining.com

#REF! Chris Evans (GM operations)

Options 165.7 Top Shareholders Ord Diluted Notes

Issued Capital (diluted for options) 1133.9m m sh. % m sh. %

Issued Capital (diluted inc. options and new capital) 1488.6m Allan Buckler (Shazo) 146.5 15.1% 139.4 #REF!

1 Terry Smith (Hartco) 139.4 14.4% #REF! #REF!

12month price target $0.35 2 #REF! #REF!

3 Reserves & Resources Mt Li % Ta2O5

P&L Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 4 Pilgangoora M+I 26.7 1.05% -

Net Revenue A$m 0.0 119.2 228.6 236.7 237.3 5 Pilgangoora Inf 9.0 1.02% -

Total Costs A$m -5.2 -49.2 -91.3 -102.9 -112.4 6 Pilgangoora Total 35.7 1.04% -

EBITDA A$m -5.2 70.0 137.3 133.8 125.0 7

- margin - 59% 60% 57% 53% 8 Pilgangoora Reserve 18.4 1.07% -

Depreciation/Amort A$m -4.4 -9.7 -14.4 -17.8 -19.2 9

EBIT A$m -9.6 60.3 122.9 116.0 105.8 Global Total 35.7 1.04% n/a

Net Interest A$m -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -3.2 -5.1 10 Global Reserve 18.4 1.07% -

Pre-Tax Profit A$m -10.8 58.3 120.9 112.8 100.7 Production Summary Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Tax Expense A$m 0.0 0.0 -30.4 -33.8 -30.2

Normalised NPAT A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5 Processed Mill Throughput Mt 0.73 1.40 1.73 2.00

Abnormal Items A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mined grade Li % 1.12% 1.12% 1.12%

Reported Profit A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5 Produced Spodumene - Technical Mt 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Minority A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Produced Spodumene - Battery Mt 0.102 0.196 0.242 0.280

Profit Attrib A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5 Produced Tantalite Mlb pa 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000

Produced Spodumene - Battery Eq Mt 0.102 0.196 0.242 0.280

Balance Sheet Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 LCE equiv (0.16x Spod) ktpa 16.2 31.4 38.6 44.8

Cash A$m 71.0 50.2 71.9 115.8 187.5 Mine Life yr 13.50 12.50 11.50 10.50

Other Current Assets A$m 2.4 17.1 30.6 31.6 31.6 Assumed Mining Inventory Mt 26.0 24.6 23.0 21.0

Total Current Assets A$m 73.4 67.2 102.4 147.3 219.1 Assumed Mining Inventory - Li grade % 1.12% 1.12% 1.12% 1.12%

Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 100.4 145.7 181.4 190.0 172.8 Assumed Mining Inventory - Tant grade % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Exploration A$m 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3 Capex -105.0 -55.0 -50.0 -26.5 -2.0

Investments/other A$m 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 Costs Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 139.1 184.8 220.8 229.9 213.1 Cost per milled tonne $A/t 39.1 36.0 34.9 34.3

Total Assets A$m 212.5 252.0 323.3 377.2 432.2 EBITDA / tonne milled ore $A/t 96.6 98.1 77.6 62.5

Total cost per milled tonne 67.9 65.2 59.6 56.2

Short Term Borrowings A$m 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total Cash Costs $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 484.8 465.7 426.0 401.3

Other A$m 2.1 13.4 24.2 27.1 29.6 C1: Operating Cash Cost = (a) $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 279.2 257.2 249.6 245.0

Total Curr. Liabilities A$m 2.5 13.8 24.6 27.5 30.0 (a) + Royalty = (b) $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 382.6 359.9 335.8 319.6

Long Term Borrowings A$m 105.9 75.9 45.9 17.9 - C2: (a) + depreciation & amortisation = (c) $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 374.9 330.5 323.4 313.5

Other A$m - - - - - (a) + actual cash for development = (d) $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 825.0 514.4 360.9 253.6

Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m 105.9 75.9 45.9 17.9 - C3: (c) + Royalty $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 478.2 433.1 409.7 388.1

Total Liabilities A$m 108.4 89.7 70.4 45.4 30.0 (d) + Royalty $A/t Spod. Batt. eq 928.4 617.0 447.2 328.2

Net Assets A$m 104.1 162.4 252.8 331.8 402.3 Price Assumptions Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Net Debt A$m 35.3 26.1 -25.6 -97.5 -187.1 AUDUSD US$/A$ 0.69 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.77

Spodumene - Technical US$/t 1050 1206 1244 1089 933

Cashflow Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 Spodumene - Chemical (ie Battery) US$/t 675 775 800 700 600

Operating Cashflow A$m -5.2 66.6 134.6 135.8 127.3 Tantalite US$/t 60 60 60 60 60

Income Tax Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 -30.4 -33.8 -30.2 Hedging Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Interest & Other A$m -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -3.2 -5.1 none

Operating Activities A$m -6.5 64.5 102.1 98.8 92.0 Sensitivity Analysis

Valuation FY21 NPAT

Property, Plant & Equip. A$m -105.0 -55.0 -50.0 -26.5 -2.0 Base Case 0.32 70.5

Exploration and Devel. A$m -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 Spot Prices 0.46 (44.0%) 117.4 (66.5%)

Other A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spot USD/AUD 0.73, Chemical Spod $750/t.

Investment Activities A$m -105.4 -55.4 -50.4 -26.9 -2.4 AUDUSD +/--10% 0.26 / 0.39 (-18.0% / 22.0%) 57.6 / 86.2 (-18.3% / 22.4%)

Spodumene - Technical +/--10% 0.32 / 0.32 (0.0% / 0.0%) 70.5 / 70.5 (0.0% / 0.0%)

Borrowings A$m 89.0 -30.0 -30.0 -28.0 -17.9 Spodumene - Chemical +/--10% 0.39 / 0.26 (19.8% / -19.8%) 84.7 / 56.3 (20.1% / -20.1%)

Equity or "tbc capital" A$m 89.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tantalite +/--10% 0.32 / 0.32 (0.0% / 0.0%) 70.5 / 70.5 (0.0% / 0.0%)

Dividends Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Production +/--10% 0.38 / 0.26 (19.0% / -19.0%) 84.0 / 56.9 (19.2% / -19.2%)

Financing Activities A$m 178.0 -30.0 -30.0 -28.0 -17.9 Operating Costs +/--10% 0.30 / 0.34 (-6.0% / 6.0%) 65.9 / 75.0 (-6.5% / 6.5%)

Unpaid Capital

Net Cashflow A$m 66.1 -20.9 21.7 43.9 71.7 Year Expires No. (m) $m Avg price % ord

30-Jun-16 159.5 3.2 0.02 16%

Shares Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 30-Jun-17 0.0 0.0 0.00 0%

Ordinary Shares - End m 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 30-Jun-18 0.0 0.0 0.00 0%

Ordinary Shares - W'ted m 1154.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 30-Jun-19 0.0 0.0 0.00 0%

Diluted Shares - W'ted m 1160.2 1346.2 1346.2 1346.2 1346.2 30-Jun-20 0.0 0.0 0.00 0%

TOTAL 159.5 3.2 0.02 16%

Ratio Analysis Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21 Valuation $m $/shr

Cashflow Per Share A$ cps -0.6 4.8 7.6 7.4 6.9 100% Pilgangoora (pre-tax NAV at disc. rate of 12%) 712 0.48

Cashflow Multiple x -37.5 4.4 2.8 2.8 3.1 Other Assets/Exploration 30 0.02

Earnings Per Share A$ cps -0.9 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.3 Forwards 0 0.00

Price to Earnings Ratio x -22.3 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.0 Corporate Overheads -130 -0.09

Dividends Per Share AUD - - - - - Net Cash (Debt) -13 -0.01

Dividend Yield % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity% 25% 14% -11% -42% -87% Tax (NPV future liability) -121 -0.08

Interest Cover X na 29.5 59.7 36.6 20.7 Options & Other Equity 3 0.00

Return on Equity % na 36% 36% 24% 18% Total 480 0.32

Analyst: Trent Barnett

+61 8 9268 3052

"tbc capital" could be equity or debt. Our valuation is risk-adjusted for how this may be obtained.

Sources: IRESS, Company Information, Hartleys Research

17 May 2016

17 May 16

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 3 of 23

BUSINESS OVERVIEW AJM are developing the Pilgangoora spodumene project in northern WA (note

PLS.asx is also developing a separate project in the region with the same name).

AJM also has stakes in producing coal assets in Indonesia, but at current prices they

are marginal. By far the main value driver in AJM is the lithium asset.

PILGANGOORA (100%) Pilgangoora is a spodumene deposit in the Pilbara region of WA. AJM has been

progressing the project since 2010. It was drilled by AJM between 2010 and 2012

on a 40x40 spacing (282 RC holes and 8 diamond holes). The Company held the

ground as application since 2001.

The project is approximately 123km drive from the town of Port Hedland. Road

access to the site is via the Great Northern Highway and then Shire roads and

station tracks.

The study plan is for a 1.4Mtpa operation to produce ~215ktpa of lithium spodumene

concentrate per annum, commencing Q3 2017. The life of mine (LOM) is expected

to be 14 years, based on an indicated and inferred resource of 35.7Mt. Mill feed is

expected to be 1.15-1.2% Li2O, which is higher than the reserve and resource grade

of ~1.05%. The mine plan assumes grade streaming such that the Company builds

a low grade stockpile which will be processed in the later years (year 12-14).

The strip ratio is higher in year one (4.1:1), but then falls to 2.7:1.

Near term risks are finalisation of native title and pastoral lease agreements, neither

of which we believe will be problematic.

Fig. 1: Pilgangoora Resource

Source: AJM

AJM is well advanced

in the development of

the Pi lgangoora

l i th ium mine in the

Pi lbara.

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 4 of 23

Fig. 2: Pilgangoora cross section

Source: AJM

Fig. 3: Pilgangoora mine plan

Source: AJM

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 5 of 23

Fig. 4: Pilgangoora process flowsheet

Source: AJM

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

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Fig. 5: Pilgangoora 3D model

Source: AJM

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 7 of 23

DELTA COAL MINE (33%) The Delta Coal Mine in East Kalimantan produces mid-rank thermal coal. Altura owns

a one-third stake. Production is has reduced to 0.75 Mtpa in order to low only lower

cost areas but does have plans to increase back up to 1.5 Mtpa (Company expects

no additional capital). Coal from the Delta mine is sold “unwashed”, meaning there is

no metallurgical treatment required to achieve a saleable product. Delta coal is sold

as a medium energy thermal product to both the export and domestic markets with all

ROM coal considered saleable product

The operation is currently cash flow positive, but small. We value the AJM stake

minimally.

TABALONG COAL MINE (70%) The Tabalong Coal project in South Kalimantan is pending final forestry approval. All

other approvals have been granted. The Tabalong project includes five IUPs covering

17,000 hectares and has confirmed high calorie thermal coal. Initial production is

targeted at 500,000 moving quickly to 1.5 Mtpa. Altura has announced its intentions

to divest its coal interests including its holding in Tabalong.

Under the terms of the joint venture agreement, Altura holds 70% of the Tabalong

Coal Project, with PT Unitras Jaya Investama (UJI) holding the remaining 30%.

We value Tabalong at zero in our valuation minimally. We hope that a transaction can

extinguish the debt.

MT WEBBER IRON ORE ROYALTY AJM has a 1% revenue royalty over 30% of Mt Webber’s production of the FOB sales

price when the 62% Fe price averages greater than A$95 in the month of delivery. If

the mine is operating at 6mtpa, then AJM share that royalty applies to is only 2mtpa.

We value royalty at zero. If the iron ore price was A$105, then the royalty would

generate roughly $0.3m pa, which is barely material anyway.

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

Page 8 of 23

INDUSTRY EXPOSURE AJM is exposed to thermal coal prices, but given we value the assets at zero, our

valuation is only sensitive to improving coal prices.

The main value driver, in our view, is the exposure to the spodumene Li price.

Consequently, AJM is exposed to the lithium carbonate price. This, in turn, is driven

by the demand for lithium batteries. As a rule of thumb, to convert spodumene tonnes

into LCE tonnes, multiple spodumene volumes by 0.16x.

Current demand for LCE is ~200ktpa, which is satisfied by current supply. However,

demand is expected to grow significantly. Forecasts depend largely on the take up of

lithium battery cars, for which industry is uncertain. However, most forecasts assume

~100ktpa of additional LCE is required by 2020 (50% increase). The world has

enough resources to satisfy that demand, and hence there is a short window to get

into production. Those mines likely to enter production will be those that can sign

offtakes. Offtake partners normally want high quality product (low impurities), low

sovereign risks, long mine life and robust projects (basically security of supply).

However, it is possible that demand could exceed current estimates.

We estimate that if electric vehicle market share is around 11% by 2025 (currently

~1.5%) then global LCE demand will be ~400kt, which seems to be close to consensus

estimates for demand. However, if market share increases faster (~extra 100bp pa),

such that penetration is 17% by 2025 then global LCE demand could be 500kt by

2025. If demand truly accelerated, and penetration reach ~45% by 2025, then LCE

demand would be 900kt. If penetration rates are slower, then the point at which

demand reaches 500kt pa may be deferred, but ultimately the structural demand for

LCE is still very strong.

Note, AJM is not planning to sell technical grade spodumene, which is used in the

ceramics and glass industry (which is driven by global consumer growth). Technical

grade spodumene sells for a higher price, but market growth is much lower.

Fig. 6: Hartleys simple LCE demand forecasts

Source: Hartleys

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2016 demand Electric Vehiclemarket share

11% of new carsales in 2025

market share17% in 2025

market share24% in 2025

market share31% in 2025

market share47% in 2025

LCE demand in 2025

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Fig. 7: Lithium Carbonate outlook

Source: PLS

Fig. 8: Electric Vehicle current market share new care sales

Source: http://www.iea.org/evi/Global-EV-Outlook-2015-Update_1page.pdf

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Fig. 9: Every 1M EV is ~20kt LCE

Source: Albermale

Fig. 10: Tesla Giga Factory

Source: http://cleantechnica.com/files/2015/07/Tesla-Gigafactory-new-3.jpg

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GEOGRAPHIC EXPOSURE The Pilgangoora mine in is located in the Pilbara, Western Australia.

AJM has coal assets in Indonesia. It also has an office in the Philippines to pursue

coal assets.

Fig. 11: Project Locations

Source: AJM, Maps

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PEERS AND COMPETITORS

Fig. 12: Listed peers

Source: Hartleys, IRESS, various.

Company Ticker Last Quot. Mkt CapStatus

International

Albemarle Corp ALB.NYS 77.81 8,735

Chemical and Mining Co of Chile Inc SQM.NYS 21.36 5,622

FMC Corp FMC.NYS 47. 6,289

Tesla Motors Inc TSLA.NAS 208.29 27,635

GANFENGLITHIUM 002460.SHE 70.46 27,031

ASX Listed

1. Mineral Resources Limited MIN 7.88 1,457 Producer (Spod.)

2. Orocobre Limited ORE 3.8 802 Producer (Brine)

3. Pilbara Minerals Limited PLS 0.755 785 Developer (Spod.)

4. Galaxy Resources Limited GXY 0.385 493 Producer (Spod.) & Developer (Brine)

5. Altura Mining Limited AJM 0.21 213 Developer (Spod.)

6. Neometals Ltd NMT 0.38 212 Producer (Spod.)

7. General Mining Corporation Limited GMM 0.58 192 Producer (Spod.)

8. Lithium Australia NL LIT 0.255 61 Explorer (Spod.)

9. Pioneer Resources Limited PIO 0.064 58 Explorer (Spod.)

10. Birimian Gold Limited BGS 0.345 52 Explorer (Spod.)

11. Dakota Minerals Limited DKO 0.135 44 Explorer (Spod.)

12. Crusader Resources Limited CAS 0.135 30 Explorer (Spod.)

13. Ardiden Ltd ADV 0.04 29 Explorer (Spod.)

14. Metalicity Limited MCT 0.076 26 Explorer (Spod.)

15. European Metals Holdings Limited EMH 0.265 26 Developer (Spod.)

16. Kidman Resources Limited KDR 0.12 25 Explorer (Spod.)17. Sayona Mining Limited SYA 0.049 24 Explorer (Spod.)

18. Zenith Minerals Limited ZNC 0.14 24 Explorer (Spod.)

19. Platypus Minerals Ltd PLP 0.035 21 Explorer (Spod.)

20. Kairos Minerals Limited KAI 0.07 19 Explorer (Spod.)

21. Prospect Resources Limited PSC 0.017 18 Explorer (Spod.)

22. Liontown Resources Limited LTR 0.025 17 Explorer (Spod.)

23. Venture Minerals Limited VMS 0.045 14 Explorer (Spod.)

24. Argosy Minerals Limited AGY 0.038 14 Explorer (Spod.)

25. Venus Metals Corporation Limited VMC 0.21 13 Explorer (Spod.)

26. Argonaut Resources NL ARE 0.018 12 Explorer (Brine)

27. Hannans Reward Limited HNR 0.016 12 Explorer (Spod.)

28. Marindi Metals Limited MZN 0.0145 11 Explorer (Spod.)

29. Exterra Resources Limited EXC 0.044 11 Explorer (Spod.)

30. Mithril Resources Limited MTH 0.018 10 Explorer (Spod.)

31. Core Exploration Limited CXO 0.034 10 Explorer (Spod.)

32. Cazaly Resources Limited CAZ 0.069 9 Explorer (Spod.)

33. Peninsula Mines Limited PSM 0.019 9 Explorer (Spod.)

34. Walkabout Resources Ltd WKT 0.005 9 Explorer (Spod.)

35. Traka Resources Limited TKL 0.032 8 Explorer (Spod.)

36. Cullen Resources Limited CUL 0.005 8 Explorer (Spod.)

37. Silver City Minerals Limited SCI 0.063 7 Explorer (Spod.)

38. Maximus Resources Limited MXR 0.0035 7 Explorer (Spod.)

39. Paynes Find Gold Limited PNE 0.083 6 Developer (Spod.)

40. Kingston Resources Limited KSN 0.027 5 Explorer (Spod.)

41. Quantum Resources Limited QUR 0.032 3 Explorer (Spod.)

*Market cap is quoted ordinary shares from IRESS. It does not dilute for options, escrow shares, performance shares, convertible

notes, recent placements etc. These can be meaningful adjustments that should be taken into account.

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KEY SUPPLIERS & CUSTOMERS AJM has executed a Binding Offtake Agreement with Lionergy and a non-binding

MOU for off-take with Optimum Nano Battery Co, both in China. Lionergy also recently

became a shareholder in AJM via a private placement. Lionergy has been in the China

lithium industry for 20 years. Optimum Nano has 26% market share of EV lithium

batteries in the Chinese domestic market.

Orelogy completed the FS study. Ravensgate Mining Industry Consultants completed

the Resource.

AJM plans to export from Port Hedland, and will likely use Qube Logistics.

Fig. 13: Consultants used in FS

Source: AJM

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MANAGEMENT, DIRECTORS AND

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS

Biographies taken from Company Website

No Chairman

The Company has elected not to have a formal Chairman. The Chair of Board

meetings rotates amongst the non-executive directors.

James Brown, Managing Director

James is a mining engineer with more than 25 years’ experience in the coal mining

industry in Australia and Indonesia, including 22 years at New Hope Corporation.

James was appointed Managing Director of Altura in September 2010 and was

previously Group General Manager since December 2008.

Paul Mantell, Executive Director

Paul has more than 30 years’ corporate experience as an accountant in mining and

associated industries, including 28 years at New Hope Corporation, the last 12 years

as Chief Financial Officer. He was appointed a director in May 2009.

Allan Buckler, Non-Executive Director

A qualified mine manager with more than 40 years’ coal experience in Australia and

Indonesia, Allan joined Altura in December 2008. He has had key roles in the

establishment of several large mining and port operations in both Australia and

Indonesia. Allan is a former Director and Chief Operations Officer of New Hope

Corporation Limited and has led the development of significant operations including

PT Adaro Indonesia, PT Indonesia Bulk Terminal and PT Multi Harapan Utama in

Indonesia.

BT Kuan, Non-Executive Director

BT is a mechanical engineer with considerable experience in bulk handling and

terminal operations, including responsibility for the development and management of

the Indonesia Bulk Terminal at Pulau Laut in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. He also

has experience in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore with other minerals and soft

commodities including tin dredging operations, managing rubber, palm oil and cocoa

processing factories, and managing palm oil bulk terminals. BT was appointed a

director in November 2007.

Dan O’Neill, Non-Executive Director

Dan is a geologist with over 30 years’ of international mining experience, having

worked across Australasia, Africa, Asia and North America. Dan has held positions

with a number of Australian and multinational exploration companies, as well as

managed exploration programs in a diverse range of environments and locations,

including Botswana, North America, South East Asia, North Africa and Australasia.

Economic Exposure of Board and key management Total

Shares Total Options Perf shrs Economic

# # Exposure

Position millions rank

Directors

-- No Chairman (role rotates among non-exec.) - - - -

James Brown MD 21,018,300 5,500,001 2,000,000 28,518,301 3

Paul Mantell Exec Director 25,979,750 6,523,334 1,000,000 33,503,084 2

Allan Buckler Non-Exec Director 146,511,409 30,682,283 200,000 177,393,692 1

BT Kuan Non-Exec Director 15,282,968 5,500,000 200,000 20,982,968 4

Dan O'Neill Non-Exec Director 10,877,780 3,555,556 200,000 14,633,336 5

Source: AJM

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During his career, Dan has held executive management positions with ASX listed

companies and has worked on a range of commodities including diamonds, gold, base

metals, coal, oil and gas. He was appointed a director on 18 December 2008.

MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS There are two substantial shareholders. Allan Buckler (a Non-executive director) is a

substantial shareholder with 15.1% and Terry Smith (14.4%).

OPTIONS, CONVERTIBLES AND UNPAID CAPITAL There are ~159m options at 2cps strike that expire in June this year. If all options were

exercised it would raise ~$3.2m.

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FINANCIALS

PRODUCTION / PROFIT & LOSS

Company guidance The Company is progressing with a DFS, and hopes to enter construction in CY17

with first production in late CY17.

Hartleys Forecasts Our model is in line with guidance. We do recognise that it is an aggressive timetable,

and hence there is risk of slippage, in our view.

Fig. 14: Production and Profit and Loss

Source: Hartleys Research Estimates

BALANCE SHEET

Fig. 15: Balance Sheet

Source: Hartleys Research Estimates

P&L Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21

Net Revenue A$m 0.0 119.2 228.6 236.7 237.3

Total Costs A$m -5.2 -49.2 -91.3 -102.9 -112.4

EBITDA A$m -5.2 70.0 137.3 133.8 125.0

- margin - 59% 60% 57% 53%

Depreciation/Amort A$m -4.4 -9.7 -14.4 -17.8 -19.2

EBIT A$m -9.6 60.3 122.9 116.0 105.8

Net Interest A$m -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -3.2 -5.1

Pre-Tax Profit A$m -10.8 58.3 120.9 112.8 100.7

Tax Expense A$m 0.0 0.0 -30.4 -33.8 -30.2

Normalised NPAT A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5

Abnormal Items A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Reported Profit A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5

Minority A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Profit Attrib A$m -10.8 58.3 90.5 79.0 70.5

Balance Sheet Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21

Cash A$m 71.0 50.2 71.9 115.8 187.5

Other Current Assets A$m 2.4 17.1 30.6 31.6 31.6

Total Current Assets A$m 73.4 67.2 102.4 147.3 219.1

Property, Plant & Equip. A$m 100.4 145.7 181.4 190.0 172.8

Exploration A$m 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.3

Investments/other A$m 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9

Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$m 139.1 184.8 220.8 229.9 213.1

Total Assets A$m 212.5 252.0 323.3 377.2 432.2

Short Term Borrowings A$m 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Other A$m 2.1 13.4 24.2 27.1 29.6

Total Curr. Liabilities A$m 2.5 13.8 24.6 27.5 30.0

Long Term Borrowings A$m 105.9 75.9 45.9 17.9 -

Other A$m - - - - -

Total Non-Curr. Liabil. A$m 105.9 75.9 45.9 17.9 -

Total Liabilities A$m 108.4 89.7 70.4 45.4 30.0

Net Assets A$m 104.1 162.4 252.8 331.8 402.3

Net Debt A$m 35.3 26.1 -25.6 -97.5 -187.1

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Gearing ratios

Fig. 16: Ratios

Source: Hartleys Research Estimates

Fixed Assets There are minimal current fixed assets.

Debt The Company has a vendor loan facility from the purchase of the coal assets. The

Company refinanced the terms in March. Repayments are due in

July 2017 (US$4.15m), July 2018 (US$4.15m) and July 2019 (US$4.2m). The

Company has successfully negotiated extensions to terms, and given we understand

that it is non-recourse to AJM, it seems likely that further extnesions can be negotiated,

if required.

We expect the project will have meaningful conventional debt or a customer

prepayment.

Hedging There is no hedging, but we expect that offtakes will include a fixed price component.

CASH FLOW

Fig. 17: Cash Flow Statement

Source: Hartleys Research Estimates

Shares Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21

Ordinary Shares - End m 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0

Ordinary Shares - W'ted m 1154.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0 1340.0

Diluted Shares - W'ted m 1160.2 1346.2 1346.2 1346.2 1346.2

Ratio Analysis Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21

Cashflow Per Share A$ cps -0.6 4.8 7.6 7.4 6.9

Cashflow Multiple x -37.5 4.4 2.8 2.8 3.1

Earnings Per Share A$ cps -0.9 4.3 6.8 5.9 5.3

Price to Earnings Ratio x -22.3 4.8 3.1 3.6 4.0

Dividends Per Share AUD - - - - -

Dividend Yield % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Net Debt / Net Debt + Equity% 25% 14% -11% -42% -87%

Interest Cover X na 29.5 59.7 36.6 20.7

Return on Equity % na 36% 36% 24% 18%

Cashflow Unit 30 Jun 17 30 Jun 18 30 Jun 19 30 Jun 20 30 Jun 21

Operating Cashflow A$m -5.2 66.6 134.6 135.8 127.3

Income Tax Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 -30.4 -33.8 -30.2

Interest & Other A$m -1.3 -2.0 -2.1 -3.2 -5.1

Operating Activities A$m -6.5 64.5 102.1 98.8 92.0

Property, Plant & Equip. A$m -105.0 -55.0 -50.0 -26.5 -2.0

Exploration and Devel. A$m -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4

Other A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investment Activities A$m -105.4 -55.4 -50.4 -26.9 -2.4

Borrowings A$m 89.0 -30.0 -30.0 -28.0 -17.9

Equity or "tbc capital" A$m 89.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Dividends Paid A$m 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Financing Activities A$m 178.0 -30.0 -30.0 -28.0 -17.9

Net Cashflow A$m 66.1 -20.9 21.7 43.9 71.7

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Capex requirements We assume Stage 1 capex of $160m (including working capital).

Free cash flow We estimate strong cash flow once in production based on our spodumene forecasts.

Dividends We do not expect any dividends for the foreseeable future.

EQUITY ISSUANCE We expect AJM will require equity to complete study work and finance construction.

We dilute our valuation for 370m new shares.

SENSITIVITIES

FX exposure AJM costs are based in AUD while selling prices are denominated in USD.

Interest Rate exposure We estimate that there is minimal direct interest rate exposure for AJM.

Commodity price exposure GMM is exposed the spodumene prices, which in turn can be driven by lithium

carbonate prices.

Fig. 18: Valuation sensitivity to selling prices

Source: Hartleys Research Estimates

AUD* USDAJM Val.

(A$/shr)

New Shares

(m)

A$m pa US$m pa EV/EBITDA

408 300 n/a 42$ 31$ 9.9x

476 350 0.05$ 523 59$ 44$ 7.0x

544 400 0.10$ 438 77$ 57$ 5.3x

613 450 0.15$ 406 95$ 70$ 4.3x

681 500 0.20$ 390 113$ 83$ 3.7x

749 550 0.26$ 380 131$ 96$ 3.2x

817 600 0.31$ 373 149$ 109$ 2.8x

885 650 0.36$ 369 166$ 122$ 2.5x

953 700 0.41$ 365 184$ 135$ 2.2x

1021 750 0.46$ 362 202$ 149$ 2.0x

1089 800 0.52$ 360 220$ 162$ 1.9x

1157 850 0.57$ 358 238$ 175$ 1.7x

1225 900 0.62$ 356 256$ 188$ 1.6x

1293 950 0.67$ 355 274$ 201$ 1.5x

1361 1000 0.73$ 354 291$ 214$ 1.4x

AUD/USD* 0.73

EBITDA pa LOMSpodumene Price

per tonne

Base Case

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VALUATION CONSIDERATIONS AND

PRICE TARGET METHODOLOGY

VALUATION Our AJM base valuation is 32cps, based on $160m of start-up capex and funded with

debt and equity (we dilute for an extra 370m shares). We assume an expansion to

2mtpa.

The biggest risk to our valuation are spodumene prices and dilution. The net debt

position also increases risk.

Fig. 19: Hartleys estimates

Source: AJM, Hartleys Research

Scop. Study (1Mtpa)

11 Feb 2016

Scop. Study (2Mtpa)

11 Feb 2016

PFS (1.4Mtpa)

11 Apr 2016

Hartleys (base) Difference

Mining inventory 18.92Mt 18.92Mt 18.47Mt 26.35Mt 42.7%

- grade Li2O 1.15% 1.15% 1.07% 1.12% 4.7%

- grade Ta2O5

Potential Mining inventory 26.35

- grade Li2O 1.12%

- grade Ta2O5

Mine Life (yrs) 19.0yrs 10.0yrs 14.0yrs 14.0yrs 0.0%

Startup Capex - Total A$97.6m A$146.7m A$159.3m A$161.8m 1.6%

Total Capex A$97.6m A$146.7m A$159.3m A$271.5m

Mined Ore + Waste (mt pa) 3.8mt pa 7.2mt pa 4.9mt pa 7.3mt pa 49.3%

Waste (mt pa) 2.8mt pa 5.3mt pa 3.6mt pa 5.4mt pa 51.8%

Strip Ratio (x) 2.8x 2.8x 2.7x 2.9x 6.4%

- first five years 2.8x 2.8x 2.7x 2.8x 3.7%

Mill Feed (mt pa avg) 1.0mt pa 1.9mt pa 1.3mt pa 1.9mt pa 42.7%

- startup 1.0mt pa 1.9mt pa 1.3mt pa 1.0mt pa

- max 1.0mt pa 1.9mt pa 1.4mt pa 2.0mt pa

Total Spodumene Mined 2.9Mt 2.9Mt 2.7Mt 3.7Mt 34.6%

Total Tantalite Mined

Spodumene Recoveries 72.0% 73.1% 83.2% 75.0% -9.8%

Tantalite Recoveries 0.0%

Spudumene Sold 150.0ktpa 289.0ktpa 195.7ktpa 263.5ktpa 34.6%

- LCE (0.16x) 24.0ktpa 46.2ktpa 31.3ktpa 42.2ktpa 34.6%

Concentrate Grade 6.5% 6.0% -7.7%

Tantalite Sold 0klb pa

Construction date Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 Dec-16 0.0%

Commisioning date Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 Dec-17 0.0%

Revenue (US$) - LOM US$1,013m US$1,013m US$1,172m US$2,501m 113.5%

Costs (US$) - LOM -US$530m -US$494m -US$518m -US$927m 79.1%

- / tonne -US$ 186 /t -US$ 171 /t -US$ 189 /t -US$ 251 /t 33.0%

EBITDA (US$) - LOM US$530m US$577m US$581m US$1,574m 171.1%

EBITDA - A$ pa A$37.2m pa A$77.0m pa A$55.3m pa A$146.m pa 164.0%

- first 5 years A$145.1m pa

EV/EBITDA (year 1) 2.85x

EV/EBITDA (lom) 9.4x 5.2x 7.43x 2.83x -61.9%

Life of mine avg selling price (Spodumene) US$ fob US$ 351 /t US$ 351 /t US$ 428 /t US$ 678 /t 58.5%

Life of mine avg selling price (Tantalite) US$ fob US$ 60 /t

Life of mine avg C1 cash costs pre credit A$ 321 /t A$ 321 /t A$ 298 /t A$ 326 /t 9.3%

Life of mine avg C1 cash costs after credit A$ 326 /t

- US$ after credit US$ 251 /t

Life of mine avg C2 cash costs pre credit A$ 345 /t A$ 345 /t A$ 320 /t A$ 350 /t 9.3%

after credit A$ 350 /t

fx US$/A$ 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.77 2.9%

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Fig. 20: Key Assumptions and Risks for valuation Assumption Risk of not realising

assumption Downside risk to

valuation if assumption is

incorrect

Comment

~14 year mine life Low Meaningful This appears reasonable based on current resources

Start-up at 1.4mtpa

Upside Meaningful This seems reasonable. Means the addition of supply into the market is digestible

Outer year grades slightly better than current resource grade

Moderate Moderate We assume exploration success or accretive acquisition to feed mill in outer years.

Ramp-up to 2mtpa in 2019

Moderate Meaningful An expansion seems realistic

Spodumene prices in line with our estimates

Upside/downside Meaningful We assume selling prices that are higher than historic prices

Equity and debt financing Low Meaningful We assume the project is fully funded.

No value for other assets (eg Coal and Iron ore)

Moderate Upside We assume that the coal and iron ore assets have no value.

Exploration value Moderate Meaningful We assume modest exploration value.

Conclusion Selling prices of spodumene are is the most significant risk. Obtaining the capital and time until production are also risks.

Source: Hartleys

PRICE TARGET Our price target is based on various valuation scenarios.

Price Target Methodology Weighting Spot 12 mth out

90% $0.32 $0.36

NPV at spot commodity and fx prices 5% $0.46 $0.52

Net cash 5% $0.00 $0.00

Risk weighted composite $0.31

12 Months Price Target $0.35

Shareprice - Last $0.210

12 mth total return (% to 12mth target + dividend) 66%

Source: Hartleys Estimate

NPV base case, assuming significant equity dilution

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RECOMMENDATION & RISKS

INVESTMENT THESIS & RECOMMENDATION We believe AJM is a well advanced lithium project. Although grade is lower than some

peers, the advanced stage of study work and offtake negotiations is very positive.

Using current expectations of spodumene prices we believe the project is very

economic.

We are initiating with a Speculative Buy, with the Speculative aspect centred around

finalising financing and the net debt position.

RISKS The largest risk for AJM are the selling prices of spodumene, offtakes for the product

and raising the capital for construction. Other risks are similar to most producers: mine

planning, mill performance, force-majeure, counter party risks, mine life extensions,

expansions.

SIMPLE S.W.O.T. TABLE Strengths Slow ramp-up to production

MoU for offtake Potential customer is a shareholder Well understood processing

Weaknesses Unfunded Still requires offtakes and complete DFS

Opportunities Expansion of throughput New project development

Threats Metallurgical recoveries Funding requirements Takeover Selling prices

Source: Hartleys Research

The bottom l ine is

AJM is a very

advanced spodumene

developer

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Hartleys Limited Altura Mining Limited (AJM) 17 May 2016

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Fig. 21: Using Hartleys base case commodity forecasts

Source: Hartleys Estimates, IRESS

Fig. 22: Using spot commodity prices

Source: Hartleys Estimates

.00

.10

.20

.30

.40

.50

.60

.70

.80

.90

AJM Actual

Hartleys Target

8x EV/EBITDA

6x EV/EBITDA

4x EV/EBITDA

2x EV/EBITDA

1x EV/EBITDA

Shareprice

.00

.20

.40

.60

.80

1.00

1.20

AJM Actual

8x EV/EBITDA

6x EV/EBITDA

4x EV/EBITDA

2x EV/EBITDA

1x EV/EBITDA

Shareprice

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HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research +61 8 9268 3052

Mike Millikan Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805

Scott Williamson Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3045

Simon Andrew Energy Analyst +61 8 9268 3020

Janine Bell Research Assistant +61 8 9268 2831

Corporate Finance Dale Bryan Director & Head of

Corp Fin.

+61 8 9268 2829

Richard Simpson Director +61 8 9268 2824

Paul Fryer Director +61 8 9268 2819

Ben Wale Associate Director +61 8 9268 3055

Ben Crossing Associate Director +61 8 9268 3047

Stephen Kite Associate Director +61 8 9268 3050

Scott Weir Associate Director +61 8 9268 2821

Rhys Simpson Manager +61 8 9268 2851

Registered Office

Level 6, 141 St Georges TcePostal Address:

PerthWA 6000 GPO Box 2777

Australia Perth WA 6001

PH:+61 8 9268 2888 FX: +61 8 9268 2800

www.hartleys.com.au [email protected]

Note: personal email addresses of company employees are

structured in the following

manner:[email protected]

Hartleys Recommendation Categories

Buy Share price appreciation anticipated.

Accumulate Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is

not as attractive as a “Buy”. Alternatively, for the share

price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an

uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a

price level at which it may become a “Buy”.

Neutral Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly

balanced.

Reduce /

Take profits

It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over

the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of

some price weakness over that period.

Sell Significant price depreciation anticipated.

No Rating No recommendation.

Speculative

Buy

Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that,

on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there

is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful

possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to

significant share price reduction. Consequently, the

investment is considered high risk.

Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan +61 8 9268 2864

Justin Stewart +61 8 9268 3062

Simon van den Berg +61 8 9268 2867

Chris Chong +61 8 9268 2817

Digby Gilmour +61 8 9268 2814

Veronika Tkacova +61 8 9268 3053

Wealth Management Nicola Bond +61 8 9268 2840

Bradley Booth +61 8 9268 2873

Adrian Brant +61 8 9268 3065

Nathan Bray +61 8 9268 2874

Sven Burrell +61 8 9268 2847

Simon Casey +61 8 9268 2875

Tony Chien +61 8 9268 2850

Tim Cottee +61 8 9268 3064

David Cross +61 8 9268 2860

Nicholas Draper +61 8 9268 2883

John Featherby +61 8 9268 2811

Ben Fleay +61 8 9268 2844

James Gatti +61 8 9268 3025

John Goodlad +61 8 9268 2890

Andrew Gribble +61 8 9268 2842

David Hainsworth +61 8 9268 3040

Neil Inglis +61 8 9268 2894

Murray Jacob +61 8 9268 2892

Gavin Lehmann +61 8 9268 2895

Shane Lehmann +61 8 9268 2897

Steven Loxley +61 8 9268 2857

Andrew Macnaughtan +61 8 9268 2898

Scott Metcalf +61 8 9268 2807

David Michael +61 8 9268 2835

Jamie Moullin +61 8 9268 2856

Chris Munro +61 8 9268 2858

Michael Munro +61 8 9268 2820

Ian Parker +61 8 9268 2810

Charlie Ransom

(CEO)

+61 8 9268 2868

Conlie Salvemini +61 8 9268 2833

Mark Sandford +61 8 9268 3066

David Smyth +61 8 9268 2839

Greg Soudure +61 8 9268 2834

Sonya Soudure +61 8 9268 2865

Dirk Vanderstruyf +61 8 9268 2855

Samuel Williams +61 8 9268 3041

Jayme Walsh +61 8 9268 2828

Disclaimer/Disclosure

The author of this publication, Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (“Hartleys”), its Directors and their Associates from time to time may hold

shares in the security/securities mentioned in this Research document and therefore may benefit from any increase in the price of those securities.

Hartleys and its Advisers may earn brokerage, fees, commissions, other benefits or advantages as a result of a transaction arising from any advice

mentioned in publications to clients.

Any financial product advice contained in this document is unsolicited general information only. Do not act on this advice without first consulting

your investment adviser to determine whether the advice is appropriate for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs.

Hartleys believes that any information or advice (including any financial product advice) contained in this document is accurate when issued.

Hartleys however, does not warrant its accuracy or reliability. Hartleys, its officers, agents and employees exclude all liability whatsoever, in

negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage relating to this document to the full extent permitted by law.