Upload
others
View
4
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Chapter 5
Alternative Space Future NEW TECHNOLOGIES
S pace reconnaissance and surveillance in the twenty-first
century and beyond will have a mission that is extraordinarily
complex from a technical stand-point, but rather straightforward as far·
as their mandate is concerned. They will be responsible for seeing and
hearing everything of importance to the national security everywhere
on earth and in space, day and night, regardless of the weather. And
they will be expected to send their intelligence not only to the agencies
and departments for dissemination to the National Command Authority,
but directly to military units in the fields as well.
Drawing upon his own experience of the 1970s William Colby has
peered into the future and Resconcluded that such " Science fiction"
capabilities as "instant visual surveillance of all areas of the globe
despite weather, darkness, or camouflage" and "instant translation of
electrical messages and oral transmission anywhere in the world" are
"well within the possibility of development." Given the extreme sensitivity
of the subject,the prediction of the former director of Central Intelligence'
is suitably nonspecific, but it is nevertheless on the mark. 1
1. Colby, William E. Honerable Men • My life in the CIA (New York,
Simon & Schuster, 1978), p 461.
1/J
116
American scientists and engineers are now in the process of
designing various stages of a complex, which is a highly responsive
electronic shell that is to enclose and describe the sphere on which we
live. The planet and the space surrounding it are becoming
encapsulated by whole networks of orbital devices whose eyes, ears,
and silicon brains gather information in endless streams and then route
it to supercomputers for instantaneous processing and analysis-for a
kind of portrait of what is happening on planet Earth painted
electronically in real time.
The reconnaissance and surveillance platforms will vary
considerably, yet all are to be interconnected to constitute a single, all-
encompassing, intelligence collection apparatus. There are plans for
advanced versions of nearly all of the current space systems, including
those in the Keyhole series, Rhyolite and its various derivatives, the
Jumpseat radar ferrets and their low-orbiting counterparts, the ELINT
satellites that use intermediate orbits, and the White cloud ocean-
surveillance spacecraft. The imaging satellites will be far more
maneuverable than those now in use, while all of the next generation
of spacecraft will have more powerful sensors, real-time data-processing
and transmission, and enhanced attack-hardening. 2
And there will be new types of satellites. One is being designed to
watch laser tests. Another will carry a nuclear-powered radar that will
2. White Cloud Ocean Surveillance Satellite: Part of the US Navy Space
Project with National Reconnaissance Organisation in 1981.
be able to peer through a cloud cover by using a giant dish or a
rectangular array, the approximate size of a football field that is built of
ribs and membranes having the thickness of a tinfoil. The rectangular
antenna would be carried to its orbital point in the shape of a cylinder
and then unrolled like a giant window shade. Another spacecraft, whose
heart is to be a large mosaic of infra red sensors, will stare down from
its celestial perch and track individual aircraft and cruise missiles by
following the heat they emit. Still others, constituting a space-based.
Surveillance System, will keep a watch over other nations' satellites in
order to provide early warning of an attack on the U.S. assets.
Aerial reconnaissance will have its place as well. The SR-71 's
eventual successor is probably going to be a so-called trans-atmospheric'
vehicle (TAV), or hypersonic airplane, powered by supersonic
combustion ramjets ("Scram jets"). It will take off and land on conventional
runways, but will carry sensors, satellites, and other cargo to low orbit
at blistering speeds in the range of Mach 25--seventeen thousand miles
an hour-- which will get it from New York to Peking in slightly more than
thirty minutes. The civilian version is already being called the "Orient
Express".
There are plans, rarely mentioned, to place a space station in orbit.
This will be an, unmanned one and would travel the polar route carrying
a variety of sensors for meteorology, target mapp1ng. and
reconnaissance.
1/7
Radar images transmitted from space can come in either analog or
digital form. In either case the images may be turned into standard
photographs to show what's going on at night or under the clouds. But
radar imagery in digital form has a significant advantage over the analog
variety". It can be computer-manipulated. What appears to the unaided
eye in an analog photograph, for example, can be digitally massaged
so that distinct shapes appear.
"According to John Ford, supervisor of the Imaging Radar Geology
Group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, "You can digitally manipulate
data in such a fashion that you create very strong contrasts, It was at
this laboratory that SIR-A and SIR-8, the shuttle's radars, were built.
He proceeded, "That allows you to see things which were completely
obscured before this processing technique had been applied. 'In other
words, bulges in the earth that might not appear in a standard
photograph or an analog radar image that was made by pointing the
sensor straight down would be clearly delineated by digitally
manipulating the radar picture. In addition, radar images taken from
directly above an object can be digitally rearranged so as to give the
viewer the perspective of seeing it from all sides. This has profound
implications where the analysis of foreign weapons systems and military
installations are concerned.
3. Gerald, Merille and Pamela W. Edward (ed~pace
Station: Policy, Planning and UtilizatiodNew York.
American lnstutite of Aeronautics 1983), p- 28.
/IIi
It is predicted that by the year 2001 the space around planet Earth
will be surrounded not by the great white roulette-wheel stations that
come to mind through the novels of Arthur C.Ciark, but by a series of
antenna farms floating at altitudes of between one thousand and five
thousand miles and pointing downward. Space-based nuclear-powered
radar technology is being actively pursued by the Air Force and DARPA
so that systems can be placed in orbit that will detect Russian bombers
(whether they are stealthy or not) and cruise missiles, and will also be
used to watch ballistic missile tests, to know the where abouts of the
world's navies, and all man-made objects in space. The Pentagon
earmarked $60 million in the fiscal year 1989 for research leading to
the development of radar satellites that will in effect "put a fence around
the U.S. " It is estimated that six or seven such spacecraft would be
needed at the five thousand-mile altitude, necessary in one -thousand
mile high orbits because they would not be able to see as far. Although
the United States may have launched one phased array radar satellite
in January 1982, it bore no resemblance to those currently on the
drawing boards at Grumman Aero Space, which is designing the.
antenna, and at General Electric, Raytheon, and Texas Instruments,
which are developing solid-state transmission and reception modules
which will be smaller than a-twenty-five-cent piece) for the satellit(~S
The space Surveillance and Tracking System (SSTS) will comprise
another fleet of spacecraft-- at least four-- that will use infrared and
/19
visible wavelength sensors to monitor Russian satellites with a view to
defining in precise terms what they do and what their capabilities are.
and will also provide early warning of an attack on the U S. space·
systems.
The SR-71 will be replaced, but probably not by a specially
constructed reconnaissance aircraft. Instead, research is now under
way on a trans-atmospheric vehicle (TAV)-- sometimes called a
hypersonic plane, a national aerospace plane, an advanced aerospace
vehicle (AAV), military aerospace vehicle (MAV) , or the X30- which is
to perform several missions, one of the foremost being reconnaissance.
Although the spaceplane's specific configuration and precise role
varies according to the company doing the study, its central concept·
centers on a manned vehicle that will take off from a standard runway,
climb to the fringe of space at dazzling speed, orbit the earth if
necessary, and then return to terra firma just as a satndard airplane
would. Some envision the craft as a second-generation space shuttle
able to carry twenty-thousand-pound cargoes to a low orbit, while others
think of it as a multirole space bomber that will be able to attack any
place itself on earth within ninety minutes of taking off. It is to have a
ceiling of about thirty miles in one plan, and more than twice that in
another. Some designers think it ought to be rocket-powered, though
most would like it to be propelled by a highly advanced supersonic
combustion ramjet. 4
4. USAF Spurs Spaceplane Research'Aviation Week & Space
TechnologyMarch 26, 1984. pp- 16- 17.
120
121
But it is the military mission that drives the spaceplane, which in
the view of DARPA and the Air Force, will have at least three
advantages over the shuttle: it will be launchable on immediate notice:
it will be able to go up during severe weather conditions if necessary;
and it will operate both in air and in space, giving it greater mission
flexibility.
"A TAV could react quickly from the continental U.S. to any global
incident with the versatility to provide reconnaissance, force projection,
strategic defense and interdiction support as desired, "5
Although it is unlikely,a high-altitude hypersonic reconnaissance
may also mark the end of the sort of mission, SR-7 is and others
currently fly along the periphery of Eastern Europe, the Russia, and
the People's Republic of China. A forty-five-mile-high mission flown at
better than seventeen thousand miles an hour over the denied territory
would transform a spaceplane into the equivalent of a manned spy
satellite-- a modern MOL. Such missions might well resurrect the sort
of political and legal conflict that attended the beginning of the U.S
space reconnaissance program and subsided only in 1963. within a
year of the Kremlin's having gotten its own reconnaissance satellites
off the ground. Each country has been flown over repeatedly by
astronauts and cosmonauts of the other side since the manned space
5. DARPA Plans Supersonic Ramjet Technology Program' Aviation
\/\Leek & space TechnologtJ1ay 6th 1993. p 111.
programs began, but not at altitudes hundred miles and for the express
purpose of collecting intelligence.
As already noted, the vulnerability of reconnaissance and
surveillance satellites' uplinks, downlinks and tracking stations to attack
or to natural disaster has been a source of concern for a number of
years. In the long run, expanding the conrol points (providing the
Consolidated Space Operations Center at Colorado Spnngs with·
Control of several military satellite systems to take some of the load off
Sunnyvale, for example) will not suffice because the number of such
expensive sites must necessarily remain extremely limited, and the
satellites will therefore remain at a considerable risk.
Because of this as well as due to the possibility of the satellites
being attacked, Robert Cooper told 'Aviation week & Space Technology'
that the "umbilical cord" connecting the control facilities on earth to the
satellites is going to have to be cut in successive stages until the orbiters
are able to take care of themselves to an extent that is now almost
unbelievable. Not only are they going to have to be hardened, but
perhaps more important, they are going to have to be made to "think"
for thernselves. 6
According to Cooper, the head of DARPA," Currentfy satellites are
taken care of by smart people on the surface of the earth. " He added
6. USAF Pushes Surviavability of SateilitesP.viation Week &
S_Race Technolo@eptember 24. 1988. pp- 71 -72
122
"Generally, those are people who know about the design of the satellite
and who watch it intensively, twenty four-hours a day When a fault
occurs in any of our spacecraft, these smart people spring 1mmed1ately
into action. They diagnose the difficulty in the spacecraft and they
determine actions that can be taken to preserve the mission. With the
flexibility that exists in many of our spacecraft, an almost infinite number
of actions can be taken that will tend to preserve the mission, perhaps
in some degraded form, "7 .
There is a rising concern within the national technical intelligence
establishment, and particularly the Air Force, that world's expanding.
network of space systems, certainly including its reconnaissance and
surveillance satellites, is, in varying degrees, vulnerable to a generally
less sophisticated, but adequate, Russian attack capability. The space
craft do not have to cope with air turbulence, weather. severe
gravitational effects, and other hazards associated with flight in the
atmosphere, so toughness has been sacrificed in all cases for maximum
mission capability. Satellites are not only inherently "dumb," but extremely
fragile. This gives the would-be attacker a considerable advantage.
Accordingly, there are at least four avenues besides autonomy that
are being followed in order to maximize the chances for satellite survival
in the event of attack: hardening, maneuvering, deception. and
proliferation.
7 Ibid, pp 71 - 72,
123
Hardening is the most widely used protective measure and Involves
a number of techniques employed to protect the spacecraft and its
support systems by making them physically resistant to attack. The
use of gallium arsenide in place of silicon in the satellite's sensors and
computers has already been mentioned, as have metal shielding and
the use of protective doors and coated lenses to help block the laser
attack. Research is also under way to develop solar panels that are
more resistant to the effects of nuclear explosions and other radiation
than those currently in use It has also been suggested that, where
possible, solar panels should be abandoned altogether in favor of
nuclear energy, either from isotopes or from reactors. Nuclear power
plants not only produce more energy than solar panels but are far less
susceptible to the effects of laser radiation, concussion, sharpnel, or·
pellet barrage. Some U.S. military satellites currently operate with
isotopes, though none of them are low-orbiters, since the NRO does
not want to risk the sort of embarrassment that the former Soviet Union
experienced when two of its radar ocean reconnaissance satellites
tumbled out of orbit carrying hot fissile material.
Since spoofing and jamming are among the most tempting ways to
interfere with satellites because of their ambiguous effects (especially
those relating to spoofing), they are particularly worrisome. Bes1des
encryption equipment, which has long been used for bott1 uplink and
downlink communications, the next generation of satellites will go 1nto
l IL4
space with beam- hopping antennas, so the data flow will jump from
one antenna to another.
There will also be rapid changes of frequency, burstrng (the
transmission of data in short, tightly packed segments}, and the use of
extremely high frequency wave lengths. EHF signals do not disperse
as readily as those on the lower wavelengths, and they are therefore
more difficult to jam or intercept. Extremely high frequency transmission
travels in such straight lines that anyone wanting to interfere with it
must be virtually between the transmitter and the receiving antenna rn
order to do so.
Maneuvering is considered to be of marginal value at best against
co-orbital interceptors and virtually useless against directed energy
weapons such as chemical and nuclear-pumped lasers, particle beams,
or electro-magnetic railguns.
There are several methods by which satellites can try to deceive
their attackers, though. One, inherent in the design of the spacecraft
itself, involves "stealth", or low-observable, technology. This entails
designing the satellites with as many smooth curved surfaces as
possible in order to reduce their radar cross section (which is yet
another argument for getting rid of the solar pad.dles and going to
nuclear). Skins sheathed in the new "ultra black" coating wrll absorb
radar pulses rather than reflect them, while protective covers will be
used to reduce heat emissions in order to thwart infra red-drrected
attack systems.
12S
As far back as the 1960s, Air Force B-52 bombers were equipped
with an electronic countermeasure known as "range gate-stealing" that
allowed them to project their image away from themselves so that they
appeared on enemy radar to reach where they hadn't. Theoretically,
there is no reason why such a system would not work on satellites as
well. In the same vein, research has been under way since the late
seventies on ways to electronically reduce the spectral signatures of
satellites in the regions where Soviet tracking sensors normally operate
so that the spacecraft's images are further reduced on the opposition's.
radar. 8
The last and most devious bit of deception has to do with the use
of "dead," or "sleeping, "satellites. Perfectly functional spacecraft might
be disguised as spent boosters or other discarded orbital junk, as
satellites that have been turned off prematurely so as to appear useless,
or as vehicles that give the appearance of having suffered total point
failure when in fact they are merely being kept dormant until needed.
Proliferation entails increasing the number of satellites doing
reconnaissance and surveillance and keeping as many of them as.
possible out of harm's way. Given the expense involved in building
reconnaissance satellites, emulating the Russians in terms of assembly
line production and a rapid launch rate is clearly out of the question
The better alternative seems to be the use of very high orbits-higher
8. Stancey, Roym World War II Phpto I nte_ll igence (London
Sidgwirck Jackson, 1981 ), p 91.
/26
than synchronous. The advantage of the synchronous orbrt is that It
allows a satellite to remain in a nearly fixed position relatrve to the
earth at all times. But this brings disadvantages, too. Spacecraft with
fixed positions are particularly easy targets for such ASATs as
neighboring but are really space mines waiting to be triggered at the
appropriate moment. Placing space craft in orbits beyond synchronousat
sixty thousand miles or more, for example helps to keep them beyond
the region in which sudden, successful attack is possible.
PLANS, PROJECTS IN SPACE
Varieties of Space Development
We distinguished above the rate of development 1n space
(technological achievements, trends in R n D expenditure etc) from the.
direction of that development (the kinds of activities which are taking
place) These are of course interdependent. Different activities may be
developed at different rates, either because of the technological
challenge they pose or because of the political will they evoke The
development of one activity may render that of another, at a faster or
slower pace, more orless probable.
To put or method of analysis to work, it is more helpful to consider·
the actual trends in space development in the past than to speculate in
the abstract about all conceivable uses to which space might be put ..
What then have been the main activities in space. and what
determinants and interests have underlied them.
127
In the preceding chapter the major trends of space develorment
have been identified both in terms of the areas of space utiltzat1on and
their resoective rates of development. An assessment of the first 25
years of space history reveals a shifting pattern of interests and
"justifications' for particular modes of space exploration and explo1tatton .
lri the early days of the space age, political, military-strategtc and
scientific interests dominated the space activities (initially confined only
to the two superpowers). During the 1960s and 1970s, however,
scientific exploration and prestigaseeking, while not disappearing, were
gradually replaced as the central axes of space development by a more
pragmatic utilization, giving way to the exploitation of space for economic
and military objectives. (Table 1.)
This table roughly captures the profile of the space development
1n terms of such factors as actual expenditures devoted to different
areas of R and D, and launches carried out for different purposes - if
not the public image which is presented for the vanous space
programmes by space agencies or popular science. Unless there is a
radical change in our· poolitical and economic affairs here on Eartn.
current trends sugges\ that the main factors determintng space
development will be: ( 1) the perceived economic importance of space.
and (2), the perceived military objectives. Table 1 charts the changing
course of space activity over the past decades. in terms of 1ts maJor
determinants.
/2H
Table I Past Trends in Space Development
Period Major determinants Example of trend
-1950-1960 1. Politicamilitary
2. Scientific
-1960-1970 1. Political
(Prestige)
2. Economic
3. Military
-1970-1980 1. Economic
2. Military
-1980-1996 Economic
Perceived military potential of
launch ere
New Horizon: scientific
experiements in space-earth and
planetery sdence.
Moon-race;emphasla in USA and
USSR on space
"firsts"
Growing awareness of practical
uses of space env1onment
(communications, weather
satellites).
Space
satellites
defence/su rvei II ance
Practical exploitation of space
enviornment;'commercialization' of
space products and serv1ces.
Military command/
communications, systems 1n
space; renewed interest in
offensive space techonology
Commercia I i z at ion-space
weapons and counterweapons
/29
However, the resurgence of science and exploration as s1gn1ficant.
·driving forces' for space developments cannot a priori be ruled out An
assesment of alternative modes of space development will therefore
be considered along three axes :
Economic
Political/Military
Scientific I Exploratory.
Considering the rate and direction of space development primarily
as a dependent variable, it is imperative to assess the poss1ble changes
along these axes of development in the context of alternative social'
and economic configurations. More particularly, as international conflict
and cooperation assumes different dimensions, so will their expression
in space technology. To examine what future space developments may
look I ike it is necessary to explore different scenanos of world
developments , which will provide the basis from which part1cular space
futures would stem. Such secenarios will not only enable us to consider
the influence of particular social and economic factors on the nature of
space activities, but in turn would also lead us to explore the "impacts"
of space futu:-es on earth.
/30
/31
Space as economic resource
Space has already become important as an advantous location for
carrying certain forms of infrastructure and services. The use ot satellites
for telecommunications and remote sensing (for meteorological and
resource-location purposes among others) is already important. and
continues to grow Space may also become a source of resources e g
the possibilities for beaming solar energy to Earth. (In the more distant
future mining on to the Moon or the Asteroids may be added to the list
of potential resource applications). Space may also become a site for
directly productive activities, with potential advantages in terms of low
gravity, plentiful solar energy, and lack of environmental damage caused
by material or thermal or other radiation pollution.
"Such economic uses require technological developments more
efficient delivery systems, such as space shuttles which can carry
greater loads from Earth into orbit at lower coasts, and crafts suitable·
for repeated excursions to !unar or asteroidal sites. Improved space
platforms and manned space stations are required, so that permanent
habitation of orbital power stations and laboratories and industnai bases
can become a reality, giving greater fle:,ibiiity of operation Such
developments face financial constraints, involving competing cla;ms
for F~ and 0 budgets (for example. from terrestrial modes of pcwer
generation or conservation) and perhaps they face environmental
constraints as well". ''
9. Integrated space system shapes future battlefield Desc:rtstrom
Proves Satellites Tact i ca! I rnporta nc~lli Nj\L 4 5 1. 1 0 1 June
1991, pp- 41-43.
Abstracting for the moment from the actual pattern of interests on
Earth, one can consider the major determinants of econorn 1 c
development in space under two headings economic and polit1cal
imperatives.
Economic Determinants
The first determinants are internal to the economic system,which.
we shall first .consider in a very abstract way, before reintroducing our
scenarios. What is the demand for the products and services involved?
How far can they be provided at a lower cost or higher quality through
space technologies? Telecommunications, for example, continues to
grow in significance, and the informatization of societies may represent
a qualitative and quantitative extension of this trend. There is a number
of areas where competition may be quite fierce, for example satellite
and cable mass broadcast systems, but it seems likely that many space
systems will find a significant number of uses for which they are better
suited than terrestrial technologies. It is likely that in the medium term.
the demand for space products and services (old and new) will continue
to grow-barring major economic setback and thereby provide a maJor
imperative for the further economic exploitation of space.
Political Determinants
The second group of determinants is political. Here also it is useful
to treat these initially in a quite abstract way (forgetting for the moment
132
the existence of international competition and argreements about
jurisdiction etc). In terms of immediate returns on investment. many
areas of space development that may in the long term be extremely
useful in economic terms, may not appear immediately attractive today.
They may demand vast resources or a coordination of efforts at a level
that only few firms can achieve; the risks and timelags in the investment
may be outside those normally considered acceptable. At the very least,
the willingness for governments to underwrite or gurantee investments
in space technology development may be vital to the extension of space
economics. The heavy dominance of national governments (and·
governmental organizations), rather than private industries, in the
funding of space research and development, suggests that (as in the
past) substantial government intervention in space development may
well continue to be necessary too.
Governments may limit such investment in response for free market
ideology, concerns over state expenditure or domestic, political or
economic crisis. On the other hand, pressure for their intervention may
corne from perceptions of the strategic importance of space as an
economic resource, from attempts to achieve reflaction with productive
investment rather than with increased consumption, or from the claims
of aerospace in-dustries and other parties that perceive benefits to
themselves in major state contracts being issued for space development
133
134
The picture emanating from forecasts by space agenc1es and
aerospace industries frequently mirrors faith in the development and
rapid growth of a viable world market for space technology and serv1ce ..
Even so as highlighted by the recent US government initiatives 1n funding
the space station development for Russiann substantial intial state or
intergovernmental investment would be required, at least at the early
stages of developments. "The potential for commercial exploitation of
space as a site for infrastructure may well be very real, whilst other
industrial prospects may be expected to mature slowly. Judging by the
limited commercial demand for room abroad the Shuttle excluding for
the moment 'regular' space customers for telecommunications satellite
Iandes some of tile enthusiasm for the , industrialization of space' seems
to have been generated somewhat prematurely. Political dynamics and
the politics of self-interest are important in assessing the potential growth
of space as an economic resource. Thus a lower level of abstraction is
required, one which recognizes the existence of industrial and
international competition and broader issues, governed by political,
economic and social developments. Our global sceanarios are useful
here. 10
Table 2 sets out the main features of the world scenanos relevant
to the economic development of space. Of course, there are numerous
10 Gelsenheynes, Stephen 'HUMINT, !MINT and SIGINT' The ThFee
C o r n e r S t o n e 0 f I n t e II i g e n c e G at 11 e r i n g A ____ .8 M _6_Q_6
INTERNATIONAL12 (6) 1988 -89. pp- 23- 24.
variants on these scenarios, dependent on the precise conditions of
realization and ·peripheral' developments within each scenano wh1ch
could have significant implications for space development. But tak1ng
a fairly simplistic approach to each scenario it is possible to establish
that a link can be made between economic and political determmats
·generated' with a particular scenario, and the future of space
developments.
"We have situated space development for economic purposes
squarely in the arena of North-South relations, which in turn is h1ghly
bound upo with the economic and other relations that pertain among
Western societies. We have not yet touched on East-West relations,
although these may of course extend to the economic development of
space; East and West could actively cooperate, or passively permit
each other's independent development (in which case demand factors
are likely to be higher in the West), or mutually interfere with each.
other's efforts by legal, political or other means, And Esast-West relations
could influence the North-South dynamic. It is in the military development
of space, however, that the East-West relations are the rnost pressing
concern, Present indications are that major advances in cooperation
are unlikely, while interferance in other countries' space efforts may
lead to military conflict". 11
11. Jarrett, Joyce R,'NASA'S Approach to Quality and Productive
lmprovementSIGNAL44 (5) Jan 1993, pp 65- 66.
135
TABLE 2 WORLD SCENARIOS AND FEATURES RELEVANT TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF Sl'.\( ·~-:
Secenario
A. New international
B. Protectionism
C. New economic order
D. Collective selfreliance
Releveant feature vis-a-v1s econom1c
development of space
Fair degree of cooperation among
western division of labour industrialized
economies (probably under US/Japan
hegemony, though alternatives
possible). Increased role of transnational
cooperations. Pressure on national
states to provide modern infrastructure.
Considerable disarray and economic
tension within West; perhaps some
establishment or consolidation of zones
of interest, major state intervention in
economic affairs, including trade and
technology purchases.
Emphasis on developing third world
resources and manufacturing, within a
framework of international agreement ,
Withdrawal of much of third world from
economic ties with West, possibility of
new alignments with certain countries Dr
regions (Second World).
1311
Space as an area of military expansion
Ever since the beginning of the space age, military objectives have
played a key role in the development of space. Early pioneers of rocketry
found the military to be the only ready source of finance and even the
Space Shuttle development today would have been impossible without
considerable military finances and military application potential that
military exploitation of space has been a major, and growing, area of
developments.
The rate of development of space militarization, as well as 1ts
direction is largely given by political, factors. These relate firstly to
political perceptions of the strategic importance of space technology in'
the context of (potential) international conflicts. But we could also include
among these, 'military-industrial complex' type dynamics and pressures
from aerospace and electronics manufacturers, who are frequently more
concerned with securing contracts, than with the long run dangers of
weapons sales.
A more rapid rate of development of space militarization could reflect
increased East-West tension and/or increased government susceptibility
to military-industrial pressures (which is likely to be reflected and
legitimized in increased tension).
What can future space militarization look like? If current trends are
followed, would increase greater dependence of Earthbound war
fighting systems in space technology. There would be an mcrease in
137
the number, complexity and effectivenese of satellites used for
surveillance, early warning, communications, and as navigational
equipment. Correspondingly the development of high-technology
systems for the destruction of satellites of various kinds, missiles
I aunched from stratospheric aircraft, perhaps beam weapons In turn
various conutermeasures will become ap_parent in technological
developments : decoys and other means of evading detection,
hardening of satellites and use of surfaces which are less vulnerable
to laser attack. Space weapons and manned military platforms 111 Earth
orbit may be added to the current range of satellites.
The willingness or otherwise of countries with capabilities for space
militarization to agree and adhere to new agreements that limit the new
military uses of space will be conditioned by both internal and
international political developments. At the moment, the postures of in:
both East and West are far from reassuring, and the level of East-West
tension is a key determinant of the rate at which military development
in space materializes. Recent international development do not suggest
that the prospects are bright. Existing arrangements limiting the military
uses of outer space are wildly inadequate. Some hope may arise from
the rising peace movement in the West-and to a lesse1- extent m the
East-which have become a significant political force.
One interesting and particularly relevant development here 1s the
formation (in 1979) of a group called Citizens for Space [)emilitanzat1on.
r~--------- - ·--- ---· . ··---,
~,,. ,,, , .. ,,."
-~ ... .. ,,< ~ · rr . :~ (2J ' l r v c:•wcr :.1- - -·-··
i
toot caddy
tcrwa:::l . t ; ac:<>·: ~rd .
S!dCWa }'S. UP ar:d d o -,. n rr.o verr.ent
;!•rn teng:n / ac:uS!;T'('T' f !(;•,f ! (2)
I
-fuel tac~s tor thruster J€15 (2)
adtustao;e · arm(2)
body s•de towers (2)
arm ang·e <ldjustrrent !ever(2)
Figure 41 The manned manoeuvring unit (MMU)
st:bscqv ;r•t sil :c tir te rescue rnissrons. ___ _
. . ·- ··--
1;1 s b.Jck;..·acl; e~:::o tes an astrol'laut to work untethcrcd rr.ore _than tOO It (30m) lro:11 the sp:~cec •i! lt It weighs 300 lb and contains enough oxygen and electric power to ~uf'G - ! the as:ronaut lor seven hcurs. Movement is made P<>ssob:e by 24 tony JP.ts .-.h;..;h pro;:.-et niirogen gas. Top speed is around 66ft (20m) a second. It
,, ;;s :·•st ~:~~>d by Bruce McCandk•ss . rnissoon :;pecoahst on St1u1tte 41 -8, on j 7 r .. ,,, ,,,, , i ,:; .:;.1 tt w.~s l:tter lt· s:o'd on <he same miss;on uy Robert Stewart and in
L ----- - --- - - - -- -······ . --- - --- ------
.. .. Vl
.. 01 ;;
- ~ .... ~ .. .. u .c c 5: .~ 0 u E ~ <~
. Sp . .l (l' Sl i,!< ... n {.t ; 11> : ; .u ·c!' : NA SA
in the USA. If such groups can publicize the dangers of space
militarization effectively, war may see new and more effective embargoes
on space becoming the battlefield of the future.
"Much of the impetus for military space activities is, however, g1ven
by international relations and perceived strategic threats. Given that
the superpowers are the main actors in the military space race. the
future of the East-West relationship takes on particular Significance.
The scenarios outlined above suggest rather different patterns for the
development of East-West tension. Additionally, we should not forget
that space development may play a part in North-South political-military
relations too". 12
A cursory review of the implications of different world scenarios for
the degree and nature of military uses of outer space highlights the
critical interrelationship between various political and economic futures
and prospective space developments.
Again, the 'militarization of space' may in turn have an impact on
the various scenarios of space development. A decisive superiority in
space by one nation or a bloc of nations could tilt tile balance of povv'er.
(Especially important, for which could further undermine the already
shaky doctrine of deterrence). This threat, frequently emphasized by
the military, has provided to be major imperative for arms race dynamics
in space. Further spacE:! militrazation is likely in several scenanos. Even
12. Ibid. pp- 65-66.
139
when the degree of superpower conflict is limited and a balance of
power in space is aimed for, the military uses of space are dangerous
and disturbing. The risk of accidents and technical flaws, or preemptive
attacks, remains considerable, and is likely to reinforce scenarios of
increased tension and mutual distrust rather than of cooperation. On
the other hand, some alternative developments, such as the creation
of a ·satellite monitoring agency' , in relation to agreements on military
restraint, may reduce world insecurity.
The impact of the military uses of space is more likely to be
destabilizing than not in most scenarios. New entrants to the military.
development of space, in both North and South (eg France, China),
will furthermore mitigate against a greater degree of peace and stability
in global development. The different conflicts inherent in each of the
world scenarios are likely to be reinforced by the military activities in
space. The threat of the militarization of space endangering peace on
Earth remains a real one, and it should be the target of cooperative
efforts to halt this development, even when international cooperation
in other areas of world affairs is severely limited.
Space development for Science and Exploration
During the 1950 and 1960s and to a lesser extent since then, space
development has been in part motivated by interest in basic science
and exploration. As the relative decline of space science budgets if the
major space nations reflects, science and exploration have become
/4()
·secondary' justifications for space activities compared to both the
practical applications of space technology and the interest m rnil1tary
exploitation. 13
In the past quarter-century, space world has seen in addition to a
modest levei of scientific satellites in Earth-Orbit, a considerable activity
in the field of lunar and planetary exploration. The enormous
investments made in space exploration (eg the successful Viking proJect
of landings on Mars which cost 1 billion) have yielded a phenomenal
increase in our knowledge and understanding of geology and plantary
formation and have stimulated considerable advances in scientific
instrumentation and unmanned spacecraft, such as space robots.
However, more recently economic constrains and the relative lack of
priority for space science as compared to economic and military uses·
of space, have considerably reduced the level of scientific space
exploration.
Over the past few years especially, pressures have been growing
for more application-related scientific activities, and for space science
to be considerably more cost-conscious. The amount of data from earlier
scientific space missions which is yet to be analysed is considerable,
and has helped furthei to reduce pressures even from the scientific
establishments themselves for new space science initiatives Another
13. Bond, Peter,Heroes In Sp~ce: From Gargarin To Ci1a!leo.g~r
(New York, Basil 81ackwell1987), p- 187.
141
factor reducing the rate and direction of scientific space activities is the
growing acknowledgement that space science will have to compete for
funds with other fields of research. In this context, awareness among
scientists is growing that scientific laboratories in space may well creat
as many problems for experiementers as they initially would have
seemed to solve. The present disappointing scientific interests in the.
use of the Spacelab research facility broad the Space Shuttle is
reflection of this trend.
Above all, it seems to be the economic cost involved in space
operations that mitigates against major investments in space science
in the coming decades. Only a restoration of economic growth is likely
to lead to more resources becoming available for scientific space activity.
Even in that case,it is likely that space development will have to compete
with other fields of basic research, particularly ·big science' ( eg earth
based astronomy).Aithough advances have been made in assessment
techniques of costs and benefits of 'big science' projects, evaluations
of basic research initiatives are likely to continue to be stongly influenced
by political determinants.
In the near-term future, space activities are likely to be shaped by
continuing economic constraints and pressures towards the diversion
of resources away from basic to applied scientific research and space
applications. This trend mitigates against calls for major initiatives for
manned scientific operations in space although we should note that
142
SELECTED ANTISATELLITE ORBITS Not to SCOIP.)
lntl"r~N:tinn nndr \
C. l'ol•r lf.O fl':.f\1
----. ---- ·-·---------
B. loop~r ASA T
----------A. Countf!rrotation ASAT traverses GEO in "w•ong" direction. Attacks all enemy satf'llit!'S
th!'r<> in 12 hours.
B. Three enemy 58tE'Itites are in semisynchronous orbit 4 hours apart. Looper ASA T picks off each one 11!1 it p11sses the intercept point.
C. B11Mery of ASATs At North Pole take less than 2 hours tn des!rov n!l !'n!'my satellites in polar L(O.
NOTE: Arfrtpt<'d from CArtr.r. A~hton B .. "S,ltr•llitr·s iln<1 /\t~l; SillPIIiiP' ... lntrrnilllnnill St>r.urity, Sprinq 1~. p. 8.1.
the USSR appears to some extent to have taken this path w1th its
Salyut/Soyuz/Progress space operations in Earth-orbit, although 1t is
not clear how far the science is ·thrown in' since the astronauts are
already there for other purposes. It will also make advanced
programmes of· space colonization' less likely, at least for purely scientific
reasons. If space habitats are developed in the next several decades,
they are more likely to materialize under economic and military
imperatives in the first instance. 14
The implications of diferent world scanarios for scientific space
exploration are likely to be less pronounced than those in the military
and economic spheres considering the dominance of the financial
problems of the current economic climate. A cursory view is, however,
justified. Within some scenarios a greater degree of international
cooperation could lead to sharing expenses through scientific
collaboration in space science. 15
The immediate impact of developments in space science on Earth
1s unlikely to be overwhelming. Scientific collaboration in space may
foster particular modes of cooperation on an international level. In the·
past, however, a greater degree of political and economic cooperation
between nations has been more fmquently a prerequisite for succe-ssful
joint activities in science and technology than the other way round. At
14. Pardoe, Geoffrey K.C.The Future For Space Technologies
(London: Frances 1984). p- 73 ..
143
15. American Space Agencies Supporting Former USSR's Space
Agencies in Developing and Launching Systems
the economic level, space research may lead to the discovery of new
materials and manufacturing processes, and natural resources Span-·
off' from scientific research in space may indeed occur, but is by
definition difficult to forecast. Furthermore, the few examples of spin
off from earlier space developments seem to have been overrated by
space proponents, interested in justifying the enormous space
expenditures involved. More significantly, most of these spin-offs (e.g.
from project Apollo) have not been generated by the scientific exploration
of space, but by research and technical developments which were
carried out for political, military or economically oriented space projects.
Perhaps the relatively greatest short-term impact of scientific space
acitivities are to be seen in the cultural sphere.
Increased interest in space science among third world countries
may contribute to the promulgation of organization and newly
industrylizing/patterns based on advanced science and technology. In
a more positive in space scientists and others have long proclaimed
the hope that the perspective provided by the scientific exploration of
the universe, and of our planet within it, will promote a greater degree
of global cooperation and peaceful coexistence on Earth.
144