Upload
others
View
0
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
1
Earnings Presentation
4th Quarter 2019
This presentation contains, or may be deemed to contain, “forward-looking statements”. By their
nature, forward looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events
and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. The future results of Alpek,
S.A.B. de C.V. and its subsidiaries may differ from the results expressed in, or implied by the
forward-looking statements set out herein, possibly to a material degree.
Disclaimer
2019 Highlights
3
2nd Highest Reported EBITDA in Alpek’s history (U.S. $850 million)
Comparable EBITDA exceeded 2019 Guidance figures
• U.S. $722 million vs. U.S. $718 million
Finalized sale of Cogeneration plants for U.S. $801 million in 2019 as expected
Strong financial improvement as Leverage reduced to 1.6x Net Debt to EBITDA
Improved PTA/PET capacity balance & 1st expansion outside of Americas
through acquisition of 350K PET facility in Wilton, UK
4Q
Relevant References: Crude OilCrude Oil prices remained stable during 4Q19
Brent Crude Oil Price
53
44
54
71
100
80
40
20
120
60
US$/Bbl
Avg.99
64
2014 2015 2016 2017 20192018
4Source: Bloomberg
Guidance
68
Relevant References: ParaxylenePx prices were stable during 4Q19
5
1,7081,635 1,641
1,382
992
829898 878 900
989924 924
9771,056 1,100
1,258 1,2821,165
1,077955 937
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2Q2015 3Q
US$/Ton
2Q20132011 2012 2014 1Q 2Q3Q 4Q 1Q 4Q 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IHS
NA Px Contract Price
US$22/ton
increase from
Sep.’19 to Dec.’19
Relevant References: Integrated PET Margins’19 Avg. of U.S. $306/ton exceeded guidance, but declined in 4Q
6
200
74 69 69 62 58 71 64 63 60 72 80 81 104133 135 117 110
155 14082
193
174 186 208165 153
189148 147
180204 184 202
238
346
242
215 214
214
164
145
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2014 4Q
US$/Ton
2012 1Q2011 2013 2015
263
2Q
248
3Q 1Q 2Q 4Q3Q 4Q
277
1Q
478
2Q 3Q
342
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
PET
260
393
211
255
324
227
PTA
210240
276 284
212
333
370
304
227
377
China
2016 2017 2018 2019
Asian Margins (Px / MEG to PET)
Source: ICIS, PCI, CCFGroup
Relevant References: Propylene & PolypropyleneSlight decrease in both PGP contract prices & PP margins in 4Q19
7Source: IHS
NA Propylene Contract Price (PGP) NA Polypropylene Margin (PP to PGP)
12 1213
15
24
27
1920
2223 23
22 2221
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
1413
cpp
11 3Q1712 1615 1Q 2Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2018 2019
76
60
6971
39
34
45
53 52
60
51
38 37 3835
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2Q1412 3Q
cpp
11 1713 1615 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 4Q
2018 2019
EBITDA2nd highest Reported EBITDA in Alpek’s history
8
181
239274
149 140161
194167
220 188
170181 172
4Q181Q18
218
3Q18
148
189
2Q18 1Q19
234
2Q19
ReportedEBITDA
213
3Q19 4Q19
369356
+83%
843
662
220
188804
1,063
2018
722
2019
850
Badwill
PQS
Alpek EBITDA (US$M)
2018 2019
(1) Raw Material Carry Forward
Comparable EBITDA Comparable EBITDA exc. RMCF1
CoGen
Sale
EBITDA BreakdownBetter than expected margins in both segments offset by Px price drop
9
52
11
46 46 42
167
4Q19
Comparable
6
122
RMCF1
123
6
Inventories 4Q19
Reported
Others
Polyester
P&CPolyester4Q19G
188
135
173 172
4Q19
Comparable
(w. RMCF)1
Others
12 2
P&C
125
Others
Others
EBITDA
4Q19 vs.
4Q19G(US$M)
EBITDA
2019 vs.
2019G(US$M)
(1) Raw Material Carry Forward
190
41
231
67
231
68
218
Polyester512
2019
Comparable
(w. RMCF)1
P&C
9
29
Polyester
541
RMCF1
474
P&C
789
428
2019
Reported
Others
11
Inventories2019G Others 2019
Comparable
718 722
662
Raw Material Carry Forward Effect (RMCF)Comparable EBITDA + RMCF1 almost matched 2018 record figures
10
(1) Raw Material Carry Forward: Effect on margin generated from price change to raw materials between purchase vs. actual consumption. Positive or negative depending on price change
(2) Excludes PQS Badwill
(3) Excludes Cogeneration plants’ sale
2019 2018 Delta
US$M 1T 2T 3T 4T2 Total 1T 2T 3T 4T3 Total 1T 2T 3T 4T Total
Reported EBITDA 140 161 194 167 662 181 239 274 149 843 (41) (78) (80) 18 (181)
Inventory Adjustment (19) (27) (16) (6) (68) 16 20 33 (28) 41 (35) (48) (49) 22 (109)
Others 11 (1) (3) 1 9 (5) 1 7 (4) (2) 16 (1) (10) 5 10
Comparable EBITDA 148 189 213 172 722 170 218 234 181 804 (23) (29) (21) (10) (82)
Raw Material Carry
Forward(19) (28) (18) (2) (67) 11 9 (18) 2 4 (30) (36) (1) (4) (70)
Comparable EBITDA +
Raw Material Carry Forward167 217 231 173 789 160 210 251 179 800 7 7 (20) (6) (11)
LeverageNet debt reduced by U.S. $706 million resulting in 1.6x leverage levels
11
Net Debt (US$M) LTM EBITDA (US$M) Net Debt/EBITDA (Times)
407
564
834
1,0631,022
944
864 850
1Q18 2Q194Q182Q18 1Q193Q18 3Q19 4Q19
3.1
2.9
1.9
1.7
2.2 2.22.4
1.6
3Q182Q181Q18 4Q18 2Q191Q19 3Q19 4Q19
1,270
1,637 1,603
1,832
2,2002,084
2,036
1,330
3Q181Q18 2Q18 3Q194Q18 1Q19 4Q192Q19
495550
718
167
172
4Q19
YTD Sep19
2019 ReportedEBITDA
Net Extraordinary
Items
2019 Comparable
EBITDA
2019 Guidance (ex-Cogen Sale)
60
662
722
+4
2019 GuidanceAlpek met its Comparable EBITDA Guidance for 2019
12(1) Raw Material Carry Forward
Alpek Comparable EBITDA Guidance (US$M)
US$68M
inventory losses
US$789M
including RMCF1
Alpek EBITDA Guidance + CoGen (US$M)
722 718
188 200CoGen
Sale
2019 2019 Guidance
ComparableEBITDA
910 918
-8
For Additional [email protected] / +52 (818) 748-1146
• 7 Years at Alfa/Alpek
• Previously held roles in Human Resources, Talent & Culture at Alfa and Axtel
• BA in International Relations from ITESM
Alejandra
Bustamante
IR Manager
• 8 Years at Alfa/Alpek
• Previously held roles as Director of Logistics & Procurement at Indelpro, Director of Energy Markets at
Alfa, and Project Leader at The Boston Consulting Group
• BS in Industrial Engineering from Cornell University and MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business
Alejandro
Elizondo
IRO
13
14