Almost college students, I handily won the 2008 presidential election. I want someone to briefly discuss noteworthy statistics and key points the textbook

Almost college students, I Almost college students, I handily won the 2008 handily won the 2008 presidential election. I want presidential election. I want someone to briefly someone to briefly discuss discuss noteworthy statistics and key noteworthy statistics and key points the textbook shows points the textbook shows about that election.about that election.Obama won by 8.5 million votes; the Electoral Obama won by 8.5 million votes; the Electoral

College margin was 365-173—College margin was 365-173—highest winning highest winning percentage for a Democrat since 1964 (Johnson)percentage for a Democrat since 1964 (Johnson)

Very good. Please continue.Very good. Please continue.

In percentages, Obama gainedIn percentages, Obama gained13 points among Hispanics13 points among Hispanics12 points among voters 18-2912 points among voters 18-297 points among college graduates, people with 7 points among college graduates, people with higher incomes, and people living in the Westhigher incomes, and people living in the West5 points among women and men 5 points among women and men

Wow! I’m awesome! Please Wow! I’m awesome! Please continue.continue.

Geographically, from 2004 Obama addedGeographically, from 2004 Obama addedFlorida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana,Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana,Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.

Election coincided with strong gains in Election coincided with strong gains in Democratic Party identification, voters registeredDemocratic Party identification, voters registeredas Democrats, and more Democratic identificationas Democrats, and more Democratic identificationamong the nation’s fastest growing groups.among the nation’s fastest growing groups.

Keep going.Keep going.

Turnout: 131 million people; an increaseTurnout: 131 million people; an increase of 5 million people over 2004 (up 1%)of 5 million people over 2004 (up 1%)Greater numbers of African Americans and Greater numbers of African Americans and younger Americansyounger AmericansObama—used Internet and social media to Obama—used Internet and social media to his advantagehis advantage

Hey, pretty good job. Hey, pretty good job. Part of political Part of political science is theory, science is theory, often demonstrated often demonstrated through models. Let’s through models. Let’s now discuss the now discuss the three three theoretical voting theoretical voting models models discussed in discussed in the text.the text.

Three Election Models Three Election Models

Prospective (Responsible Party) VotingProspective (Responsible Party) Voting a. Voters—interested in & capable of a. Voters—interested in & capable of deciding what government will do deciding what government will do

in the futurein the future b. Each party—cohesive & united withb. Each party—cohesive & united with clear policy positions that differclear policy positions that differ

significantly from the other party’ssignificantly from the other party’s c. Winning party, in office—do exactlyc. Winning party, in office—do exactly what it said it would do what it said it would do

Three Election Models Three Election Models

Prospective (Responsible Party) VotingProspective (Responsible Party) Votingd. Potential Problems:d. Potential Problems: Might increase frequency and intensity ofMight increase frequency and intensity of political conflictspolitical conflicts The party in power can make the policies The party in power can make the policies it wants, disregarding objections of losingit wants, disregarding objections of losing party (no compromises)party (no compromises) Likely to lead to gridlockLikely to lead to gridlock

Three Election Models Three Election Models Electoral Competition Voting ModelElectoral Competition Voting Model (Median Voter Model)(Median Voter Model) a. Unified parties take most popular a. Unified parties take most popular positions in competing for votespositions in competing for votes b. Take positions that appeal to median b. Take positions that appeal to median voter—midpoint of political spectrum voter—midpoint of political spectrum c. Winning party enacts policies most c. Winning party enacts policies most voters want—democracy via competitionvoters want—democracy via competition

Three Election Models Three Election Models d. Potential problemsd. Potential problems

Conditions to work perfectly not likely to Conditions to work perfectly not likely to be met in the real worldbe met in the real world

Parties must be unified and take standsParties must be unified and take stands on issues for pure and direct vote-on issues for pure and direct vote- seeking reasonsseeking reasons

Parties must keep their promisesParties must keep their promises

Three Election Models Three Election Models The Retrospective ModelThe Retrospective Model (Reward/Punishment) (Reward/Punishment) a. Voters judge how well “The Ins” have a. Voters judge how well “The Ins” have done and decide if they want them to done and decide if they want them to continue in officecontinue in office b. Voters are purely retrospective in vision b. Voters are purely retrospective in vision and vote to reward or punish “The Ins”and vote to reward or punish “The Ins” c. Very simplistic; requires little of voters c. Very simplistic; requires little of voters

Three Election Models Three Election Models The Retrospective ModelThe Retrospective Model (Reward/Punishment) (Reward/Punishment) d. Potential Problemsd. Potential Problems

Gets rid of bad leaders only after disastersGets rid of bad leaders only after disasters happen, without guaranteeing that the happen, without guaranteeing that the next leaders will be any betternext leaders will be any better It relies on politicians anticipating the It relies on politicians anticipating the effects of future policies effects of future policies (prescience) (prescience)

The Unique Nature of U. S. ElectionsThe Unique Nature of U. S. Elections More than any other democratic countryMore than any other democratic countrySeparate and independent of one anotherSeparate and independent of one anotherInconsistent Election Procedures and vote Inconsistent Election Procedures and vote

counting counting Fill fixed termsFill fixed termsFixed datesFixed datesFirst past the post (plurality vs. majority) First past the post (plurality vs. majority)

Students, I am Dr. Edward S. Students, I am Dr. Edward S. Greenberg of the University Greenberg of the University of Colorado, one of your of Colorado, one of your textbook’s authors. Ben textbook’s authors. Ben Page and I assert that thePage and I assert that the Electoral College ensures Electoral College ensures that we choose our president that we choose our president more or less directly? How?more or less directly? How?

Almost every state: winner-take-all; therefore Almost every state: winner-take-all; therefore the electors’ actions are usually controlled by the electors’ actions are usually controlled by the popular votethe popular vote

Self-announcement—most oftenSelf-announcement—most oftenused at the local level used at the local level (city (city council, school board, etc.)council, school board, etc.)

Bully!!! I’m Theodore Bully!!! I’m Theodore Roosevelt. To be elected, Roosevelt. To be elected,

one must first be one must first be nominated. nominated. People are People are nominated five different nominated five different

ways.ways.

I’m not scowling for no I’m not scowling for no reason. My tightie whities reason. My tightie whities

are too tightie.are too tightie.

CaucusCaucus—mostly used in the past; though in —mostly used in the past; though in some states, like Iowa, caucuses are used some states, like Iowa, caucuses are used to nominate candidates for presidentto nominate candidates for president..

Convention—Convention—used in some used in some states,states, butbut primarily used by the primarily used by the major major parties to formally nominate parties to formally nominate presidential and vice-presidential and vice-presidential presidential candidatescandidates, who are actually , who are actually chosen during primary chosen during primary elections elections and caucuses in the states beforehand.and caucuses in the states beforehand.

Petition—mostly used in special electionsPetition—mostly used in special elections,, such as how Californians decided such as how Californians decided to to recall Governor Gray Davisrecall Governor Gray Davis..Primary election—the most commonPrimary election—the most commonway for candidates to gain their way for candidates to gain their party’s nomination for political party’s nomination for political office.office.

Hello. Hello. I’m Woodrow I’m Woodrow Wilson, and the people Wilson, and the people elected me president in elected me president in 1912 and 1916. 1912 and 1916. Nominations for the House Nominations for the House and Senate and state and and Senate and state and local offices occur through local offices occur through direct primariesdirect primaries in which in which the winner is named the the winner is named the party’s nominee for the party’s nominee for the general election.general election.

Now remember, Now remember, primary primary elections for president elections for president

are not direct primariesare not direct primaries; ; again, the again, the states have states have primary electionsprimary elections at at

different times, different times, between between February and JuneFebruary and June. .

Then, Then, each partyeach party has a has a national conventionnational convention in in which which state delegates state delegates

cast votes for president cast votes for president based on their parties’ based on their parties’ results in their states’ results in their states’

primariesprimaries..

Now let’s discuss Now let’s discuss the the

characteristics of characteristics of voters in voters in American American elections.elections.Since 1912: Since 1912:

50-65 % in presidential elections50-65 % in presidential elections40-50% in off-year elections 40-50% in off-year elections (1/3 Senate, 1/3 (1/3 Senate, 1/3 governors; all members of the House)governors; all members of the House) 10-20% in primaries and minor local elections10-20% in primaries and minor local elections

Only about 25% of the American public Only about 25% of the American public are are what political scientists callwhat political scientists call The Attentive The Attentive Public.Public.Know &Know & understand how government works understand how government worksVote Vote regularly regularly

Read editorials and political articles Read editorials and political articles Watch news shows Watch news shows & informational TV& informational TV Know issues and talk politics Know issues and talk politics

And And 40% of Americans are part-time 40% of Americans are part-time citizenscitizens: : vote sometimesvote sometimes, rarely read , rarely read news stories, news stories, rarely discuss politicsrarely discuss politics

On the opposite side, On the opposite side, 35% of Americans have 35% of Americans have little to no interest in politicslittle to no interest in politics

Hmmm. Not good. Hmmm. Not good. OK, so what are OK, so what are

some of the some of the barriers barriers to American votingto American voting, ,

particularly particularly compared to voting compared to voting

in European in European countries?countries?

Advanced registration requirement—many do notAdvanced registration requirement—many do not make the effort make the effort (procrastination)(procrastination)

Austria—92%Austria—92%Belgium—91%Belgium—91%Germany—86%Germany—86%

Italy—90%Italy—90%

I am Alexis de Tocqueville, I am Alexis de Tocqueville, a Frenchman who a Frenchman who

observed American observed American politics in the 1830s. politics in the 1830s.

Today Today in Europein Europe, , some some countries experience countries experience

between 80% and 90% between 80% and 90% turnoutturnout—or more--in —or more--in

almost all of their almost all of their elections. But remember, elections. But remember, the government often is the government often is

responsible for responsible for registration—in Italy and registration—in Italy and

Belgium people are Belgium people are required to vote—and required to vote—and

most countries conduct most countries conduct elections on Sundays or elections on Sundays or

holidays.holidays.

Students, I am Wisconsin Students, I am Wisconsin governor, Scott Walker.governor, Scott Walker. Remember, Remember, Wisconsin, Wisconsin, and 6 other states, now and 6 other states, now

have have same day same day registration. registration. Our Our turnout turnout is around 73%--is around 73%--similar to similar to

European countries. European countries. That statistic suggests That statistic suggests

that that the prior the prior registration requirement registration requirement in other states in other states may be a may be a

major barrier to voter major barrier to voter turnout.turnout.

Excuse me. Justina here. As Excuse me. Justina here. As someone who often gets someone who often gets confused—I mean, I once got confused—I mean, I once got in the wrong lane for a sprintin the wrong lane for a sprint—I think we also have to —I think we also have to consider that consider that some Americans some Americans don’t vote because voting don’t vote because voting choices, like California choices, like California initiatives or refereda, are initiatives or refereda, are often confusing and often confusing and overwhelmingoverwhelming. For that . For that reason, many often don’t reason, many often don’t vote.vote.

So true, Justina. But So true, Justina. But there are some there are some other other reasonsreasons, such as , such as parties parties don’t do the best job they don’t do the best job they can mobilizing the vote can mobilizing the vote and also the and also the intense intense partisanship and incivility partisanship and incivility in recent elections have in recent elections have led to several elections led to several elections that are not competitivethat are not competitive. . In such cases, some In such cases, some believe their votes do not believe their votes do not count.count.

I am John F. Kennedy, I am John F. Kennedy, and the American and the American people elected me people elected me president in 1960.president in 1960.

What factors determine What factors determine what people vote in what people vote in American elections?American elections?

The The more education more education a person has, thea person has, the more more likely likely that person isthat person is to vote. to vote.

The The higher a person’s incomehigher a person’s income, the , the more more likelylikely that person is that person is to voteto vote..

African-Americans and whites tend to vote African-Americans and whites tend to vote in equal proportionsin equal proportions, with African-Americans, with African-Americansvoting more for Democratic candidates. voting more for Democratic candidates. Hispanic-Americans and Asian Americans Hispanic-Americans and Asian Americans vote much lessvote much less

Those with Those with higher status careershigher status careers or or occupations are occupations are more likely to votemore likely to vote. . Poor, young, less-educated people, African-Poor, young, less-educated people, African-Americans and Hispanic-AmericansAmericans and Hispanic-Americans tend to tend to be be underrepresented in votingunderrepresented in voting..

The The older a person isolder a person is, the , the more likelymore likely that that person is person is to voteto vote. . (2004: 73.3% of people (2004: 73.3% of people 65-74; 48.5% of people 18-24); 2008 65-74; 48.5% of people 18-24); 2008

Women are nowadays voting at a significantlyWomen are nowadays voting at a significantlyhigher rate than men: higher rate than men: 2008, 66% to 62%.2008, 66% to 62%.

Chart on p. 307Chart on p. 307

My fellow Americans, I am My fellow Americans, I am Lyndon Johnson and the Lyndon Johnson and the American people elected American people elected me as president in 1964. me as president in 1964. In addition to low voting In addition to low voting

statistics, statistics, very few people very few people participate in the participate in the American political American political

processprocess..Less than 25% of Americans try Less than 25% of Americans try to influence how others vote. to influence how others vote.

Only 5% of Americans work for a candidate or Only 5% of Americans work for a candidate or donate money to candidates donate money to candidates

Only Only 25% of 25% of America’s taxpayersAmerica’s taxpayers designate $3.00 on their designate $3.00 on their Federal Income Tax returns to be sent to the Federal Income Tax returns to be sent to the Presidential Campaign FundPresidential Campaign Fund..

I am I am Senator Daniel InouyeSenator Daniel Inouye from Hawaii. Every 6 years from Hawaii. Every 6 years since 1962 the people of since 1962 the people of

Hawaii have elected me to Hawaii have elected me to the United Stated Senate—I the United Stated Senate—I

am now, at age 86, the am now, at age 86, the longest serving member of longest serving member of the Senate. Because I am the Senate. Because I am

also in the majority party, I also in the majority party, I am the President Pro am the President Pro

Tempore of the SenateTempore of the Senate. . Here are some more facts.Here are some more facts.

Students,Students, at what at what venue do venue do presidential presidential nominees become nominees become the official nominees the official nominees of their parties?of their parties?

At their party’s At their party’s national convention national convention in the in the summer before the summer before the presidential presidential election.election.

Yes, I know I won in 2008, but Yes, I know I won in 2008, but where was my nomination where was my nomination actually determined?actually determined?

During the primaries and During the primaries and caucuses of the winter andcaucuses of the winter andspringspring

Mr. President, weMr. President, we Republicans Republicans have a slightly different have a slightly different nominating process than nominating process than youyou Democrats. Democrats. I wonder if these I wonder if these young citizens know the young citizens know the differencedifference..

Let’s find Let’s find out, Senator.out, Senator.

Republicans: winner-take-all Republicans: winner-take-all (similar to (similar to the the Electoral College)Electoral College), meaning the , meaning the candidate who wins a state’s election or candidate who wins a state’s election or caucus gets all of that state’s caucus gets all of that state’s convention delegates.convention delegates.

Democrats: proportional, with delegates to the Democrats: proportional, with delegates to the convention distributed in rough proportion to convention distributed in rough proportion to the vote received by each candidate in a statethe vote received by each candidate in a stateprimary or caucus. Democrats also have primary or caucus. Democrats also have superdelegates—party luminaries and elected superdelegates—party luminaries and elected officials officials (Members of Congress, state and (Members of Congress, state and local officials) local officials) who also have convention voteswho also have convention votesand are not limited by election results in their and are not limited by election results in their States.States.

Regarding the presidency, who have tended to Regarding the presidency, who have tended to be the people nominated by major parties?be the people nominated by major parties?

Middle-aged or elderly Middle-aged or elderly White (White (until President Obamauntil President Obama))Protestant (Protestant (except Kennedy and Al except Kennedy and Al

Smith)Smith)MalesMalesExtensive formal educationExtensive formal educationHigh incomesHigh incomesSubstantial experience as public Substantial experience as public

figuresfigures

Early years of the Republic, the “springboard”Early years of the Republic, the “springboard” was Secretary of State (Jefferson, Madison,was Secretary of State (Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, J. Quincy Adams) Monroe, J. Quincy Adams) Since 1900, 5 have been vice-presidents Since 1900, 5 have been vice-presidents ((T. Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman,T. Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman, JohnsonJohnson, Ford*, G. H. W. Bush), Ford*, G. H. W. Bush)Governors: Wilson, F. Roosevelt, Carter,Governors: Wilson, F. Roosevelt, Carter, Reagan, Clinton, G. BushReagan, Clinton, G. BushSenators: Harding, Kennedy, ObamaSenators: Harding, Kennedy, ObamaOther: Taft Other: Taft (Secretary of War);(Secretary of War); Hoover Hoover (Secretary of Commerce),(Secretary of Commerce), Eisenhower Eisenhower (General, university president)(General, university president)Nixon Nixon (former VP and senator)(former VP and senator)

Process: begins 2-3 years prior Process: begins 2-3 years prior Test the waters—small meetings with financial Test the waters—small meetings with financial backers backers Surveys to test for name Surveys to test for name recognitionrecognitionExploratory CommitteesExploratory CommitteesCampaign organization Campaign organization

ManagerManagerPollstersPollstersFundraisersFundraisersCampaign consultants Campaign consultants

National & individual stateNational & individual state organizationsorganizations

Students, what is an Students, what is an invisible primary?invisible primary?

The relationship betweenThe relationship betweenmoney-raising and money-raising and consideration as a consideration as a serious candidateserious candidate

OK, so, OK, so, what is the public campaign what is the public campaign finance system and why would finance system and why would candidatescandidates, like me, , like me, not want to use it?not want to use it?

Public campaign finance system: the federal Public campaign finance system: the federal government matches the first $250 from each government matches the first $250 from each individual donor on conditions that candidatesindividual donor on conditions that candidateslimit preconvention campaign spending to limit preconvention campaign spending to about $50 million. about $50 million. Alternative: go it alone raise hard money Alternative: go it alone raise hard money contributions from individuals (with limitations)contributions from individuals (with limitations)and PACs (with limitations) and spend what and PACs (with limitations) and spend what they wishthey wish

Public financing of presidential nominating Public financing of presidential nominating campaigns seems to be going by the boardcampaigns seems to be going by the board1)1)Costs have gone up much faster than the Costs have gone up much faster than the amount that candidates who choose publicamount that candidates who choose public funding are allowed to spendfunding are allowed to spend2) It is easier now to raise money outside the2) It is easier now to raise money outside the public financing systempublic financing system

Students, Mitt Romney Students, Mitt Romney here. Remember, here. Remember, it’s also it’s also important to decide which important to decide which state primaries and state primaries and caucuses to enter, as all of caucuses to enter, as all of them are very expensive, them are very expensive, require huge organizational require huge organizational networks, and, networks, and, well, as I well, as I learned in South Carolina, learned in South Carolina, any loss is damaging.any loss is damaging.

Good afternoon, students. Good afternoon, students. I am Richard M. Nixon, and I am Richard M. Nixon, and

the people elected me the people elected me president in 1968 and president in 1968 and

1972. 1972. Because of Because of federalism, federalism, eeach state ach state

selects the type of primaryselects the type of primary electionelection it will hold. it will hold.

The types of primary are: The types of primary are: closed primary, open closed primary, open

primary, runoff primary and primary, runoff primary and nonpartisan primary.nonpartisan primary.

Closed primary: members Closed primary: members of a of a political party are political party are permitted to permitted to vote vote onlyonly for candidates from their for candidates from their party.party.

Most states have Most states have open primaries: they allow a open primaries: they allow a registered voter to participate in either the registered voter to participate in either the Republican or Democratic nomination process Republican or Democratic nomination process but by choosing a party once he or she has but by choosing a party once he or she has entered the voting booth.entered the voting booth.

The type of primary The type of primary helps determine a helps determine a

candidate’s strategy. candidate’s strategy. How?How?

Closed primaries: pitch appeal to the party Closed primaries: pitch appeal to the party base base (Nixon Maxim—Ch. 9)(Nixon Maxim—Ch. 9)

Open primaries: more diverse voters so Open primaries: more diverse voters so candidates must take more moderate candidates must take more moderate positions on issues positions on issues ((The Ides of March The Ides of March (2011)(2011)..

Mr. President, it’s Al Gore. Mr. President, it’s Al Gore. We all know that I lost in We all know that I lost in the 2000 general election. the 2000 general election. I need to tell the students I need to tell the students that that the general election the general election is one in which the voters is one in which the voters

actually choose their actually choose their representatives and representatives and

leadersleaders. Since 1845, . Since 1845, the the general election is always general election is always held on the first Tuesday held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of after the first Monday of

November, and for November, and for President it’s in the leap President it’s in the leap

yearyear..

I won the first two I won the first two primaries in 2012, primaries in 2012, giving me early giving me early momentum. momentum. Why is Why is early momentum early momentum important? important? Early winners get press Early winners get press

attention, financial attention, financial contributions, and better contributions, and better standings in the polls standings in the polls because they are more visible: media,because they are more visible: media, money, and increased popular supportmoney, and increased popular support

The authors of The authors of your text believe your text believe the primary the primary system is system is disorganized. disorganized. Why?Why?

States and parties control the nominating States and parties control the nominating process and it therefore changes from one process and it therefore changes from one primary election to the next. primary election to the next. Some states: both parties the same day; otherSome states: both parties the same day; other states different dates for different parties. states different dates for different parties. Different years, the dates change to make Different years, the dates change to make state primaries more relevantstate primaries more relevant

Primary campaigns for Congress Primary campaigns for Congress

Step 1: raise hundreds of thousands of Step 1: raise hundreds of thousands of dollarsdollars—friends, acquaintances, —friends, acquaintances, interest groupsinterest groups

Step 2: build a personal organizationStep 2: build a personal organization

Step 3: Hire campaign managers and Step 3: Hire campaign managers and technicians, buy advertising, conduct technicians, buy advertising, conduct polls—key is available moneypolls—key is available money

Primary campaigns for Congress Primary campaigns for Congress

Main hurdle: gaining visibilityMain hurdle: gaining visibility Mentioned by mediaMentioned by media Personal contactsPersonal contacts Door-to-door campaigning Door-to-door campaigning Identify likely supporters and court Identify likely supporters and court their favortheir favor The more money spent in the primary The more money spent in the primary campaign, the greater voter turnoutcampaign, the greater voter turnout

Advantages of incumbencyAdvantages of incumbency: : name recognitionname recognition,,franking privileges (free postagefranking privileges (free postage), and ), and political “war chestspolitical “war chests”—built-up contributions ”—built-up contributions from people, organizations andfrom people, organizations and Political Political Action Committees (PAC)—committees Action Committees (PAC)—committees focusing on particular issues that back focusing on particular issues that back political candidates. Most congressmen who political candidates. Most congressmen who run for re-election win.run for re-election win.

I am Warren G. Harding and I am Warren G. Harding and the American people elected the American people elected

me president in 1920. me president in 1920. In In elections, particularly elections, particularly

congressional elections, congressional elections, incumbents tend to have incumbents tend to have advantages. Since 1970, advantages. Since 1970,

95% of incumbents 95% of incumbents reelected.reelected.

Running for Senate: Big Time Politics Running for Senate: Big Time Politics

Very expensive (millions of dollars)Very expensive (millions of dollars)Incumbents widely known as are opponentsIncumbents widely known as are opponents

Running for Senate: Big Time Politics Running for Senate: Big Time Politics

In final campaign reports filed with the Federal Election In final campaign reports filed with the Federal Election Commission a month after Commission a month after BoxerBoxer’s victory, the senator ’s victory, the senator reported reported raising just over $28 million and spending raising just over $28 million and spending almost all of it almost all of it over the course of the campaignover the course of the campaign. Fiorina . Fiorina raised $22.6 million and spent more than $22 millionraised $22.6 million and spent more than $22 million, , including a $1-million personal loan to the campaign including a $1-million personal loan to the campaign that was repaid.that was repaid.

U. S. Senate (CA) 2010: Carly Fiorina v. Sen. Barbara BoxerU. S. Senate (CA) 2010: Carly Fiorina v. Sen. Barbara Boxer

The National ConventionThe National Convention1892-1980—significant affect on who 1892-1980—significant affect on who

was nominatedwas nominated 1984-present—showcases only— 1984-present—showcases only— decisions made by people in the decisions made by people in the caucuses and primary electionscaucuses and primary elections

Limited television coverageLimited television coverageStandard rules and ritualsStandard rules and rituals Day 1: speechesDay 1: speeches Day 2: committee reports & Day 2: committee reports &

platformplatform Day 3: choose V. P. nomineeDay 3: choose V. P. nominee Day 4: candidate acceptance Day 4: candidate acceptance

speeches speeches

As I told you boneheads last As I told you boneheads last chapter, chapter, party platforms are party platforms are

often huge and vague often huge and vague documents, and hardly documents, and hardly

anyone reads themanyone reads them. The . The reason why is reason why is because because

anything specific and short anything specific and short might give people a reason might give people a reason to vote AGAINST the partyto vote AGAINST the party. . So people normally just stay So people normally just stay with what the politicians say with what the politicians say and what the parties have and what the parties have

traditionally stood for.traditionally stood for.

Running mates: balance the ticket Running mates: balance the ticket

Biden & Palin Edwards & Cheney Lieberman & CheneyBiden & Palin Edwards & Cheney Lieberman & Cheney 2008 2004 20002008 2004 2000

Inexperienced Obama needed a seasoned Inexperienced Obama needed a seasoned congressional veteran; McCain wanted to congressional veteran; McCain wanted to lure female voters (tend to vote Democratic)lure female voters (tend to vote Democratic)

Kennedy selected JohnsonKennedy selected Johnsonfor geographic reasons for geographic reasons (needed South in 1960)(needed South in 1960)Smythe: Smythe: Two Decisions,Two Decisions, Many ProblemsMany Problems, 1968, 19681984: Walter Mondale made1984: Walter Mondale made a “statement” by selecting a “statement” by selecting Congresswoman Geraldine Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro Ferraro of NJ—realized of NJ—realized Reagan difficult to defeatReagan difficult to defeat



2000: Dick Cheney—originally from Wyoming2000: Dick Cheney—originally from WyomingAfter serving as SecDef, moved to TXAfter serving as SecDef, moved to TXHad to change back to WY because the Had to change back to WY because the Constitution (Ar II, Sec 1) prohibits electors Constitution (Ar II, Sec 1) prohibits electors from voting for more than one person for from voting for more than one person for pres and VP from their own state.pres and VP from their own state.

Value of conventions today Value of conventions today National “coming together” of the partyNational “coming together” of the party Build unityBuild unity National spotlightNational spotlight Candidates get the national spotlightCandidates get the national spotlightBut can be divisiveBut can be divisive

GOP: 1964 in San FranciscoGOP: 1964 in San FranciscoDemocratic: 1968 in ChicagoDemocratic: 1968 in Chicago

Presidential primary campaigns end at the Presidential primary campaigns end at the national convention national convention

Autumn campaigns—general election Autumn campaigns—general election Labor Day traditional start until 2004Labor Day traditional start until 2004 Focus nowadays on swing states Focus nowadays on swing states Advanced polling earmarks sure states Advanced polling earmarks sure states Time and money in swing statesTime and money in swing states 3-4 speeches a day3-4 speeches a day

I’m sure you students I’m sure you students remember me. remember me. George H. George H. W. Bush, elected presidentW. Bush, elected president by the American people in by the American people in 19881988. . Once a candidate is Once a candidate is nominatednominated—and certainly —and certainly before as well—he or she before as well—he or she engages in the engages in the campaign campaign

for election.for election.Campaigns includeCampaigns include candidates going door-to-candidates going door-to-doordoor, , campaign workers sending outcampaign workers sending out literature about candidatesliterature about candidates and making and making phone calls, andphone calls, and people placing posters, people placing posters, called called placardsplacards on their property on their property..

Campaigns Campaigns also include also include candidate speechescandidate speeches, large , large banners (above), banners (above), candidate candidate buttons (below),buttons (below), and and candidate debatescandidate debates (left, 2008). (left, 2008).Campaigns are veryCampaigns are verytiring for the tiring for the candidates and verycandidates and veryexpensiveexpensive—in —in 19961996,,Bill Clinton & Bob Bill Clinton & Bob Dole spent Dole spent $142 Mil$142 Mil..

Candidates make speeches in 6-9 media Candidates make speeches in 6-9 media markets each weekmarkets each weekFocus on battleground statesFocus on battleground statesNew media blitz—brief spot commercialsNew media blitz—brief spot commercials

As some of you may As some of you may know, I used technology know, I used technology to help win the to help win the presidency in 2008. presidency in 2008. How How do presidential do presidential campaign organizations campaign organizations use technology?use technology?

Obama: Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and Obama: Twitter, Facebook, MySpace and other social networkingother social networkingSophisticated software allows campaign Sophisticated software allows campaign organizations to combine surveys, census organizations to combine surveys, census track data, and materials from markettrack data, and materials from market research firms to identify base and research firms to identify base and persuadable voters and to tailor messagespersuadable voters and to tailor messages

OK, OK, what kinds of what kinds of information to voters get information to voters get in presidential in presidential campaigns?campaigns?

Information aboutInformation aboutIssues—both similar standsIssues—both similar stands (Nixon maxim)(Nixon maxim)Past performancePast performancePersonal characteristics Personal characteristics (candidate appeal)(candidate appeal)

I am Andrew Jackson and I am Andrew Jackson and the American people the American people

elected me president in elected me president in 1828 and 1832. One of 1828 and 1832. One of

the reasons I was the reasons I was elected was because I elected was because I had had candidate appealcandidate appeal. . Let’s discuss that issue.Let’s discuss that issue.

Candidate appeal means how a Candidate appeal means how a candidate candidate looks, responds to issues and acts.looks, responds to issues and acts. For example, in the For example, in the 1960 election1960 election campaign the campaign the candidatescandidates, John F. , John F. KennedyKennedy and Richard and Richard Nixon Nixon held our held our nation’s first nation’s first televisedtelevised presidential presidential debatedebate. Most experts said that . Most experts said that Nixon Nixon knew the issues better, butknew the issues better, but Kennedy Kennedy ““looked more looked more presidential.”presidential.”Kennedy therefore Kennedy therefore ““won” the debate onwon” the debate onTV and Nixon on TV and Nixon on the radio; Kennedythe radio; Kennedywon the election.won the election.

Presidential candidates with appeal:Presidential candidates with appeal:

Eisenhower: popular as a general; personalEisenhower: popular as a general; personalcharm; Reagan: strength and leadership; charm; Reagan: strength and leadership; Kennedy: youth, exuberance, wit; Clinton: Kennedy: youth, exuberance, wit; Clinton: appealed to youth and looked like Kennedy;appealed to youth and looked like Kennedy;Obama appealed to youth; young & vibrant Obama appealed to youth; young & vibrant

Eisenhower Reagan Kennedy Clinton Obama Eisenhower Reagan Kennedy Clinton Obama

Presidential candidates lacking appeal Presidential candidates lacking appeal

Carter Ford McGovern Dewey Carter Ford McGovern Dewey Carter: wishy-washy; Ford: bumbler; Carter: wishy-washy; Ford: bumbler; McGovern: too liberal; Dewey: Catholic and McGovern: too liberal; Dewey: Catholic and a moustache a moustache

Good evening, students. Good evening, students. I am Franklin D. I am Franklin D.

Roosevelt and the Roosevelt and the American people elected American people elected

me president in 1932, me president in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944. I 1936, 1940 and 1944. I was very specific during was very specific during

my campaigns about my campaigns about what I would do. But what I would do. But

today, most politicians today, most politicians are very vague in what are very vague in what

they promise they will do they promise they will do if electedif elected..

In the In the 19681968 presidential presidential campaign, I, campaign, I, Richard Richard

NixonNixon, said that I had a , said that I had a plan to end the war in plan to end the war in Vietnam, but gave no Vietnam, but gave no

specificsspecifics. I won.. I won.

The The theory is to not confuse the people with theory is to not confuse the people with factsfacts. So . So politicianspoliticians, such as Arnold , such as Arnold Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, Schwarzenegger in the 2003 recall election, speak in generalities rather than specificsspeak in generalities rather than specifics..

Candidates also focus on Candidates also focus on emotional issues—especially emotional issues—especially

people’s money.people’s money.

1928: Herbert Hoover— 1928: Herbert Hoover— “A“Achicken in every pot.” chicken in every pot.” Won.Won.

1932: 1932: Franklin Franklin Roosevelt– Roosevelt– “All we “All we have to have to fear is fear fear is fear itself.”itself.”

RonaldRonald ReaganReagan 1980— “Are 1980— “Are you betteryou better off today off today than you were 4 than you were 4 years ago?”years ago?”

That is why in the That is why in the 2008 election I 2008 election I

established a very established a very simple theme: simple theme:

CHANGE. CHANGE. I knew I knew that many Americans that many Americans

were dissatisfied were dissatisfied with President Bush with President Bush and wanted change.and wanted change.

My message, My message, therefore was therefore was

simple, general, and simple, general, and focused.focused.

As John and I As John and I found out, found out,

money does money does talk in talk in

elections.elections.

Obama raised $745 Million to Obama raised $745 Million to McCain’s $368 Million McCain’s $368 Million

As a man with a hard As a man with a hard body, I want to know body, I want to know what is what is hard moneyhard money. . Who can tell me?Who can tell me?

Contributions and spendingContributions and spendingthat fall under the that fall under the jurisdiction of the Federaljurisdiction of the FederalElection Commission Election Commission

How did the U. S. How did the U. S. Supreme Court’s decision Supreme Court’s decision in in Citizens United v. Citizens United v. Presidential Election Presidential Election CommissionCommission (2010) affect (2010) affect hard money?hard money?

The Court ruled that corporations and unions The Court ruled that corporations and unions may not be limited on what they spend on may not be limited on what they spend on advertising in support of or opposition to a advertising in support of or opposition to a candidate.candidate.

So, what are the various So, what are the various sources of private funding sources of private funding in general elections?in general elections?

Individuals—single Individuals—single largest sourcelargest sourceThe candidates themselvesThe candidates themselvesPolitical Action CommitteesPolitical Action CommitteesPolitical partiesPolitical parties

Note: the passage of the Bipartisan CampaignNote: the passage of the Bipartisan CampaignReform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold) gave Reform Act of 2002 (McCain-Feingold) gave an added boost to PACs by allowing an added boost to PACs by allowing corporate and labor PACs to accept largercorporate and labor PACs to accept largerdonations from individual contributors, donations from individual contributors, contribute more to candidates and parties,contribute more to candidates and parties,and run issue campaigns up until election daysand run issue campaigns up until election days

That’s good. How aboutThat’s good. How about public funding for general public funding for general elections?elections? I rejected it in I rejected it in 2008.2008.

Taxpayers: donate $3.00Taxpayers: donate $3.00 from tax returnsfrom tax returnsGovernmentGovernment uses such taxpayer contributions uses such taxpayer contributions to provideto provide matches matches for for money contributors give money contributors give to candidates during primary and generalto candidates during primary and general election campaigns election campaigns Candidates must agree to spending limits.Candidates must agree to spending limits.

I need one person to I need one person to explain explain 527 organizations527 organizations and another to explain and another to explain 501 organizations501 organizations..

527: from Section 527 of the527: from Section 527 of theTax Code;Tax Code;Entities that can use unregulated money to Entities that can use unregulated money to discuss issues, mobilize voters, and praise or discuss issues, mobilize voters, and praise or criticize incumbents or candidatescriticize incumbents or candidatesRestriction: use of radio and TV in the periodRestriction: use of radio and TV in the period immediately preceding an electionimmediately preceding an electionSwift Boat Veterans for Truth and MoveOn.orgSwift Boat Veterans for Truth and MoveOn.org

501: tax-exempt organizations whose main 501: tax-exempt organizations whose main purpose is to encourage “civic engagement”purpose is to encourage “civic engagement”

Like 527s, must report receipts and expendituresLike 527s, must report receipts and expenditures to IRS, but less frequently than 527sto IRS, but less frequently than 527s

Unlike 527s, are not obligated to report identitiesUnlike 527s, are not obligated to report identities of contributorsof contributors

Like 527s there are no limits on how much Like 527s there are no limits on how much money they can collect or spend money they can collect or spend

Regarding Regarding campaign campaign financing, financing, what is the what is the significance significance

of our of our decision in decision in Buckley v. Buckley v.

ValeoValeo (1976)?(1976)?

Buckley v. ValeoBuckley v. Valeo (1976) (1976)

First Amendment basisFirst Amendment basisIndividuals and interest groups can spendIndividuals and interest groups can spend whatever amount they want on the issue whatever amount they want on the issue and candidate advertising so long as and candidate advertising so long as such efforts are not coordinated with the such efforts are not coordinated with the candidates’ official campaign organizationscandidates’ official campaign organizations

Yes, I know I won big Yes, I know I won big in 2008—got lots of in 2008—got lots of

votes. votes. What are What are some of the factors some of the factors that contribute to that contribute to

how voters decide for how voters decide for whom to vote?whom to vote?•Social characteristics—Social characteristics—

various ethnic or various ethnic or socioeconomic groups tend to vote for socioeconomic groups tend to vote for candidates from specific parties candidates from specific parties •Party loyaltyParty loyalty•Candidates’ personal characteristics—Candidates’ personal characteristics—tended tended to favor Republicans in pastto favor Republicans in past•Specific issuesSpecific issues

The Electoral College The Electoral College

When Americans vote for a presidential When Americans vote for a presidential candidate, they are actually voting for a candidate, they are actually voting for a slate of electors in their state slate of electors in their state

Electors: 1 for each U. S. senator and 1 for Electors: 1 for each U. S. senator and 1 for each member of the House of Representativeseach member of the House of Representatives from their statefrom their state

The Electoral College The Electoral College Presidents who have won while losing the Presidents who have won while losing the popular vote: popular vote:

Rutherford B. Hayes (R)Rutherford B. Hayes (R)over Samuel Tilden (D)over Samuel Tilden (D)in 1876 in 1876


Benjamin Harrison (R)Benjamin Harrison (R)over Grover over Grover Cleveland (D) in 1888 Cleveland (D) in 1888


George W. Bush (R)George W. Bush (R)over Al Gore (D) in 2000 over Al Gore (D) in 2000

What do you think? What do you think? Should we keep, do Should we keep, do away with or change away with or change the Electoral College?the Electoral College?

Documents

Almost college students, I handily won the 2008 presidential election. I want someone to briefly discuss noteworthy statistics and key points the textbook