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Management Presentation May 2017

Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

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Page 1: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

ManagementPresentation

May 2017

Page 2: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Forward looking statements

2

This presentation as well as oral statements made by officers or directors of Allegiant TravelCompany, its advisors and affiliates (collectively or separately, the "Company“) will contain forward-looking statements that are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-lookingstatements may include, among others, references to future performance and any commentsabout our strategic plans. There are many risk factors that could prevent us from achieving ourgoals and cause the underlying assumptions of these forward-looking statements, and our actualresults, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements.These risk factors and others are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities andExchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to ustoday and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether asa result of future events, new information or otherwise. The Company cautions users of thispresentation not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based onassumptions and anticipated events that do not materialize.

Page 3: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Advantages over the typical carrier

3

Leisure customer– Will travel in all economic conditions– Vacations are valued – price dependent

Small/medium cities– Filling a large void – Increasing opportunity - industry restructuring– Diversity of network - minimizes competition

Flexibility– Adjust rapidly to changing macro (fuel/economy)– Changes in capacity - immediate impact on price– Minimize threat of irrational behavior from others

Low cost fleet – used aircraft– Match capacity to demand, highly variable– Relatively low capital needs, higher free cash flow– Can grow and return cash to shareholders

Built to be different

Leisure customer

Underserved markets

Little competition

Low cost aircraft

Low frequency/variable capacity

Unbundled pricing

Closed distribution

Bundled packages

Highly profitable

Page 4: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Measured, profitable growth

4

233

296

360 358

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016 1Q 17

Routes

8.69

10.24

11.9212.26

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

ASM

s-b

illio

ns

Scheduled ASMs

$1,137

$1,262

$1,363$1,390

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

USD

-m

m

Total revenue

70

80

84 85

60

70

80

90

2014 2015 2016 1Q 17

Aircraft in service

Aircraft number and routes are end of period

Page 5: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Based on current published schedule through November 14, 2017382 routes, 89 operating aircraft

98 small/medium cities, 20 leisure destinations

5

Stars– leisure destinations

A very large niche

Page 6: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Little competition

98114

136161 168

181207

221

255

294310

72

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 November2017

November2017

Historic level of non-competitive routes

Routes without competition Routes with competition

6

Based on current published schedule through November 14, 2017, announcements and cancellations as of May 2, 2017Legacy carriers – American, Delta, Southwest, United. Brand / lower cost carriers – Alaska, Hawaiian, JetBlue

ULCC carriers – Frontier, SpiritCompetitive routes are those that have non-stop flights between similar markets

Competitors – overlapping routes

Legacy carriers 54 Brand/lower cost carriers 6 ULCC’s 35

Page 7: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Low frequency model

7

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Syst

em b

lock

hou

rs/A

C/d

ay

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E

Avg. block hours/AC/day

1 - Peak = peak is defined as 11/23 – 12/1, 12/21 – 1/3, 2/18 – 4/14, 6/3 – 8/18. Remaining is off peak2 – Aircraft are end of year

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2x 3x 4x 5x or greater%

of t

otal

dep

artu

res

Weekly frequency of departures

Weekly market frequency

Peak Off peak

Leisure = seasonality Small cities = low frequency(1)

2013 2014 2015 2016

Aircraft - 2 66 70 80 84

Page 8: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Low costs even with low utilization

8.0JBLU

5.5SAVE

7.3ALK

6.1ALGT

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0

CA

SM

ex fu

el (

cent

s)

Average daily aircraft utilization – LTM (block hours per day)

LTM 1Q17 CASM ex fuel vs daily aircraft utilization

8

As of 1Q 2017, ALGT – Allegiant, JBLU – JetBlue, ALK – Alaska mainline, SAVE – Spirit

Page 9: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Fleet plan

4

4738

12

17

22

35

36 36

9

16 36

6916 20 31

28

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

AC

cou

nt E

OY

Aircraft by seat count

757 (215 seats) MD80 (166 seats) A319 (156 seats) A320 (186 seats) A320 (177 seats)

9

Estimated aircraft count at end of year186 seat density project dependent on outside supply chains and could impact the schedule

Total84

Total89

Total94

Total100

Total110

Page 10: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Capex & Airbus heavy maintenance

10

Mill

ions

US

D

Estimates are based on various assumptions which may not materializeOther Capex includes Capex for IT projects as well as other non-aircraft CAPEXHeavy maintenance consists of Airbus heavy airframe visits and engine expenses to be capitalized

452

190

295 270

69

58

6062

30

30

7565

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Aircraft CAPEX Other CAPEX Airbus Heavy Maintenance

Total$551

Total$278

Total$430 Total

$397

Page 11: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Cumulative return to shareholders

$17.4 $42.7$96.5 $98.4 $103.4 $1

87.0 $3

26.1 $454

.1

$520

.5

$525

.5

$14.9$53.5

$53.5

$95.3

$157.8

$225

.3

$236

.9

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

$ m

m

Share repurchases Dividends

11

$762m returned to shareholders since 2007$86.8m remaining in share repurchase authority

**-Diluted share count in 2007 was 20.5m, share count for 2016 was 16.4m2014 includes $42m returned through a special dividend declared in 2013 and paid in January 20142015 includes $44m returned through a special dividend declared in 2014 and paid in January 20152016 includes $28m returned through a special dividend declared in 2015 and paid in January 2016

Reduced diluted share count by 20% since 2007**Implemented quarterly cash dividend in Q1 2015 – now $0.70 per share

Page 12: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Unique business model and results Highly resilient and profitable

– Profitable last 57 quarters (1)

– LTM 1Q17 EBITDA $435mm (2)

– LTM Q117 Return on Capital 19.6%(2)

Strong balance sheet– Rated BB and Ba3(3)

– Adjusted debt/ EBITDAR 1.9x(2)

– $134mm returned to shareholders 2016• $86.8 mm in share repurchase authority as of 4/25/17

– Recurring quarterly cash dividend of $0.70 per share

Management owns >20%

12

(1) Excluding non-cash mark to market hedge adjustments prior to 2008 and 4Q06 one time tax adjustment(2) See GAAP reconciliation and other calculations in Appendix(3) Corporate rating of Ba3 by Moody’s and BB by Standard & Poor’s

Page 13: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

2Q17 TRASM 1.5 to 3.5% vs 2Q16

2Q17 CASM ex fuel 13 to 15% vs 2Q16

FY17 CASM ex fuel 9 to 12% vs 2016

2Q17 fixed fee + other revenue $16mm to $18mm

FY17 CAPEX $521mm (excludes Airbus heavy maintenance)

FY17 Airbus heavy maintenance $30mm

FY17 maintenance per aircraft per month $100 to $110 thousand

FY17 ownership cost* per aircraft per month $125 to $135 thousand

2nd Quarter 2017 3rd Quarter 2017 Full year 2017System departures 14 to 18% 4 to 8%System ASMs 11 to 15% 3 to 7% 8 to 11%Scheduled departures 14 to 18% 4 to 8%Scheduled ASMs 11 to 15% 3 to 7% 8 to 11%

Existing guidance

13

Guidance subject to change* - Ownership cost includes both depreciation and amortization as well as aircraft rental expense

Page 14: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Appendix

Page 15: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

GAAP reconciliationEBITDA calculations

15

$mm LTM 1Q17 2016 2015 2014Net Income attributable to Allegiant Travel Co. 189.2 219.6 220.4 86.7+Total comprehensive income (loss) 0 0 (.4) 1.2+Provision for Income Taxes 108.0 126.4 126.4 50.8+Other Expenses 1 26.3 25.8 25.1 20.4+Depreciation and Amortization 111.1 105.2 98.1 83.4=EBITDA 434.6 477.0 469.6 242.5+ Write down of Boeing 757 fleet 43.3=Adjusted EBITDA 285.8+ Aircraft lease rental .8 0.9 2.3 15.9=EBITDAR 435.4 477.9 471.9 301.7

Total debt 803.6 808.2 641.7 2 593.1+7 x annual aircraft lease rent 6.3 6.3 16.1 111.3Adjusted total debt 809.9 814.5 657.8 704.4=Adjusted Debt to EBITDAR 1.9x 1.7x 1.4x 2.3x

Average # of in service aircraft in period 84.7 83 74 69=EBITDA per aircraft 5.1 5.7 6.3 4.1

Interest expense 30.0 28.8 26.5 21.2

= Interest coverage 14.5x 16.6x 17.7x 13.5x

1- Ex unconsolidated affiliate earnings2 - Prior to 2015, total debt does not include debt issuance costs reclassification per GAAP guidance update2014 EBITDA and subsequent calculations are adjusted to exclude a one time write-down of $43.3m

Page 16: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

GAAP reconciliationReturn on equity

16

$mm LTM 1Q17 2016 2015 2014 2013Net Income attributable to Allegiant Travel Co. 189.2 219.6 220.4 113.2 92.3

Mar 2017 Mar 2016 Dec 2016 Dec 2015 Dec 2014 Dec 2013

Total shareholders equity 503.1 362.5 473.6 350.0 294.1 377.3

Return on equity 44% 53% 68% 34% 24%

ROE = Net income / Avg shareholders equity2014 net income calculation found on Adjustment for special item GAAP reconciliation table

Page 17: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

GAAP reconciliationReturn on capital employed calculation

$mm LTM 1Q17 2016 2015 2014+ Net income attributable to Allegiant Travel Co. 189.2 219.6 220.4 113.2

+ Income tax 108.0 126.4 126.4 66.8

+ Interest expense 30.0 28.8 26.5 21.2

- Interest income 3.7 3.0 1.4 0.8

323.5 371.8 371.9 200.4

+ Interest income 3.7 3.0 1.4 0.8

Tax rate 36.3% 36.5% 36.5% 37.1%

Numerator 208.4 238.0 237.0 126.6Total assets prior year (1) 1,406.7 1,358.3 1,235.1 930.2

- Current liabilities prior year (1) 425.0 395.1 362.0 290.7

+ ST debt of prior year (1) 79.8 74.1 52.6 20.2

Denominator 1,061.5 1,037.3 925.7 659.7

= Return on capital employed 19.6% 22.9% 25.6% 19.2%

17

1 - Prior to 2015, total debt does not include debt issuance costs reclassification per GAAP guidance update2014 net income calculation found on Adjustment for special item GAAP reconciliation table

Page 18: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

GAAP reconciliation - 2014Adjustment for special item

18

2014$mm – except per share amounts

Net income as reported 86.3+ Add provision for income taxes, as reported 50.8Income before income taxes as reported 137.1+ Other expense 20.2Operating income 157.3+ Boeing 757 fleet write down 43.3Adjusted operating income 200.6- Other expense 20.2Adjusted pre-tax income 180.4- Provision for income tax 66.8Adjusted net income 113.6- Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interest (0.4)Adjusted net income attributable to Allegiant Travel Co 113.2Diluted shares (millions) 17.8Earnings per share as adjusted for special item $6.36

Total revenue 1,137.0

Adjusted operating margin 17.6%Adjusted EBITDA*margin 25.2%

* - see GAAP reconciliation table

Page 19: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Revenue components

19

$91.30

$78.63

$68.47 $67.71

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

Average fare - scheduled service

$4.56$4.29

$4.08 $4.11

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

Average fare - ancillary third party products

$41.37

$46.43 $45.40 $45.59

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

Average fare - ancillary air-related charges

$137.23

$129.35

$117.96 $117.05

$110

$120

$130

$140

2014 2015 2016 LTM 1Q17

Average fare - total

All revenue is revenue per scheduled passenger

Page 20: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

LTM 1Q17 cost per passenger

Low cost drivers

$25 $23 $30 $30$10 $14 $12 $13$10 $5

$8 $15

$28 $22$56 $44

$20 $24

$30 $39

ALGT SAVE LUV JBLU

20

Source: Company filingsOwnership includes depreciation & amortization + aircraft rentOther excludes special items and one-time charges for other carriers

Other

Aircraft

$45 $50 $58

$48$86 $83

Ex fuel cost = $68Fuel cost = $25

Total Allegiant = $93

Ex fuel cost = $106Fuel cost = $30

Total Southwest = $136

Ex fuel cost = $111Fuel cost = $30

Total JetBlue = $141

$42

$46

Ex fuel cost = $65Fuel cost = $23

Total Spirit = $88

Fuel Ownership Maintenance OtherLabor

Page 21: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Credit metrics

19.2%

25.6%22.9%

19.6%

14.4%

10%

20%

30%

2014 2015 2016 LTM1Q17

LUV LTM1Q17

21

Return on capital employed

34.0%

68.0%

53.0%44.0%

26.5%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

2014 2015 2016 LTM1Q17

LUV LTM1Q17

Return on equity

13.5 x17.7 x 16.6 x

14.5 x

37.6 x

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2014 2015 2016 LTM1Q17

LUV LTM1Q17

Interest coverage

2.3 x

1.4 x1.7 x 1.9 x

1.0 x

0

1

2

3

2014 2015 2016 LTM1Q17

LUV LTM1Q17

Adjusted Debt / EBITDAR

LUV = Southwest Airlines, based on published informationPlease see GAAP reconciliation table in appendix for calculation2014 EBITDAR refers to an adjusted amount found in EBITDA tables in appendix

Page 22: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

eCommerce: roadmap

22

Air Ancillary

Purchase Path

Flexible Fare

In-App Purchase

Third Party Automated Pricing

Round-Trip Disc.

Mobile Website

Product Personalization

Automatic Cancel

Multi-Variant Testing

Payment Options

Loyalty Launch / Grow Credit Card Point Earning Partnerships

Page 23: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

2017 pilot contract impact

23

Page 24: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

2020 CASM (¢) build

24

5.99

0.34

0.35

0.12 0.27

0.33

5.6

6.1

6.6

7.1

7.6

8.1

8.6

9.1

2017E CASM (¢) Fuel Efficiency AC/Hvy MtxDepreciation

MD80 Heavy Mtx Pilot Productivity Other Efficiencies 2020E CASM (¢)

6.37 - midpoint of 2017 CASM ex

guidance

1 – 2017 CASM built using 2017 estimated burn rate and current fuel price of $1.752 – Fuel efficiency savings estimated using 2020 burn rate and current fuel price of $1.75CASM ex guidance is estimated and subject to change

US

cen

ts

8.731

8.03

Page 25: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Single plane flexible capacity example

25

-

5 ₵

10 ₵

15 ₵

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Week

2014 - Lower utilization

-

5 ₵

10 ₵

15 ₵

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Week

2016 - Higher utilization TRASM

VariableCASM

2014VariableCASM

-

5 ₵

10 ₵

15 ₵

Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Week

2014 Utilization with 2016 CASM

AC/year average

EBIT = $2.3mTRASM = 12.7 cents

EBIT = $4.6mTRASM = 11.0 cents

EBIT = $4.0mTRASM = 12.1 cents

Colors represent two different markets flown by the same plane

Page 26: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Network runway long (and getting longer)

26

Older Newer

Destinations

D48

airp

ort s

ize

Smal

ler

Larg

er

Future market growth as of:

2010 (blue)• Small airports to large destinations only• 150 potential incremental markets

2015 (orange)• Added mid-size airports, secondary

destinations• 300 potential incremental markets

2020E (green)• Add international, all-airbus fleet• 450 potential incremental markets

Page 27: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Unique network and schedule

27

95% Daily

82% Daily

52% Daily

3% Daily

0%2x/Week

2% 2x/Wee

k

1%

2x/Week

65%2x/Wee

k

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Southwest Spirit Frontier Allegiant

Unique market schedules by carrier

Each color represents a unique weekly market scheduleOffpeak represents flights on Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday in non-holiday weeks

Complexity in less than daily schedules allows for better matching capacity with demand

Complex schedules requires lower utilization and systems / work rules / specifically built for the business model

42% 43% 43% 23%% flights offpeak

Page 28: Allegiant Travel Company Management Presentation - May 2017

Contribution of initiatives

28

Operating earnings impact -$m 2017E 2020E

Fuel benefit from ASM production $6 $21

Ex-fuel savings (costs) (21) 73

Credit card program 15 45

eCommerce initiatives 14 92

Pricing engine 7 49

Fixed fee 5 20

186 seat modification 0 27

Fleet productivity 0 21

Total $26m $348m

Estimates are based on various assumptions which may not materialize