All Tools - MM4XL · 2011. 7. 12. · MarketingStat Christoph Merian-Ring 11 – CH-4153 Reinach – Switzerland – +41.61.401 6055 – [email protected] – Page 4 of 40 Portfolio

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MarketingStat Christoph Merian-Ring 11 – CH-4153 Reinach – Switzerland – +41.61.401 6055 – [email protected] – www.mm4xl.com Page 2 of 40

For information about Marketing Manager for Excel, MM4XL software: Write to: [email protected] Visit: www.mm4xl.com MarketingStat GmbH Christoph Merian-Ring 11 CH-4153 Reinach Switzerland Phone: +41.61.401 6055 Fax: +41.61.401 6073 MM4XLTM software is copyright of MarketingStat GmbH for its proprietary computer software. No material describing such software may be produced or distributed without the written permission of the owner of the copyright and license rights in the software and the copyright in the published materials. MM4XL, Marketing Manager for Excel – Release 8.0, March 2011 User’s Guide – Output Report for All Tools Copyright © 1997-2011 by MarketingStat GmbH All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in Switzerland. First edition 1998 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

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Contents

Portfolio Analysis – BCG Share/Growth Matrix ...............................4 Portfolio Analysis – McKinsey Assessment Array ...........................7 Brand Mapping: Strategy (Correspondence Analysis) ....................8 Brand Mapping: Supplementary Points...........................................9 Brand Mapping: Missing Data .......................................................10 Brand Switch..................................................................................11 Gravity Analysis.............................................................................13 Segmentation Tree ........................................................................14 Profile Manager .............................................................................15 Smart Chart (Bubbles with labels) .................................................16 Semantic Differential .....................................................................18 4-D Map.........................................................................................19 Stacked Charts ..............................................................................20 Benchmark Map.............................................................................21 Project (Mind) Mapping .................................................................22 CrossTab (Contingency Tables)....................................................24 Sample Manager ...........................................................................25 Proportion Analyst .........................................................................26 Variation Analyst............................................................................27 Cluster Analysis: Ward’s Method...................................................28 Cluster Analysis: K-Means Method ...............................................29 Descriptive Analyst ........................................................................30 Forecast Manager .........................................................................31 Quality Manager ............................................................................34 Decision Tree.................................................................................36 Risk Analyst ...................................................................................38


Portfolio Analysis – BCG Share/Growth Matrix Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data


b. Output Report

Portfolio Analysis

Product 3

Product 2

Product 1

Product 5

Product 4

Product 8Product 7

Product 6

Product 9

Product 12

Product 11

Product 10

Product 14

Product 13

Product 16

Product 15

Product 18

Product 17

Product 24

Product 23

Product 22

Product 21

Product 20

Product 25Product 19Product 26

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.010.1110100Logarithmic Relative Market Share

Mar

ket G

row

th (%

)

A

B

C

D

J

L

M

N

P

Bubbles = sales. M ax Sales: 1906.4

Summary table:

Financial Charts

Portfolio: Cash Flow (line) Vs Investments (col's)

411.11310.2

831.0 824.9

4956.2

2961.02859.41894.6

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Cow s Stars Questions Dogs

Portfolio: Average Product Investment

102.8

262.0

166.2

68.7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Cow s Stars Questions Dogs

Segments: Cash Flow vs Investment

P M

J

B

A

L

D

C N

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000C ash F lo w

Market Segment Interpreter


Verbal Report


Portfolio Analysis – McKinsey Assessment Array Floating Toolbar

User Form

Input Data

Output Report

McKinsey Portfolio Analysis

Haemostasis

Nasal Cold

Anticoagulant

Contraception Growth Hormone

Sleep Disorder

Brain Tumor

Pain

Harvest / divestHarvest / divestSelectivity

Harvest / divestSelectivitySelective growth

SelectivitySelective growthInvest & Grow

Market Attractiveness

Com

petit

ive

Adv

anta

ge

High Low

Bubbles = Revenue -- M ax = 4


Brand Mapping: Strategy (Correspondence Analysis) Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

Ulcer & Gastritis: 2003

ANTRA

AGOPTON

ZANTIC

PANTOZOL

ULCOGANT

ZURCAL

Reflux

Acute gastrit is

Atrof ic gastrit is

Severe gastrit is

Duodenal ulcer

Abdominal ulcer

Abdominal pain

Duodenal gastrit is

Stomachdisorders

Pept ic ulcer

Dyspepsia

SEVERE 60%

MODERATE40%

3-axis inertia = 95%Inertia axis 1 = 61%Inertia axis 2 = 25%

DendrogramUlcera addominale

AGOPTON

EsofagiaANTRA

Gastrite atrof ica

Ulcera pepticaUlcera duodenale

Gastrite grave

Gastrite acutaULCOGANT

Disturbi stomacoZANTIC

Dispepsia

Gastrite gastroduodenale

PANTOZOL

Dolori addominaliZURCAL

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 * Contours traced by the author according to a cluster ran with the first 3 coordinates of the Brand Mapping. See dendrogram

.


Brand Mapping: Supplementary Points Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data Filter: Have used vitamines in the past week.Question: Why have you taken vitamines during the past week?Yellow shaded area = supplementary rows & columns. Mother Father Teeny Ma&Pa Profile A Profile BPrevention 50 26 30 30 14 43Prescribed 5 7 12 36 5 18I find it @ home 3 28 32 7 23 3It's a good habit 39 34 15 26 15 26This is my 1st time 3 5 11 1 38 14Item 1 12 14 33 8 24 27Item 2 22 27 17 20 16 33Item 3 37 45 34 19 45 9

b. Output Report

Eigenvalues 1 2 3Values 0.1512 0.1068 0.0186Inertia % 55% 39% 7%Inertia cum. % 55% 93% 100%

Coordinates Contributions Squared CosinesMass Inertia Inertia ‰ 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3

Mother 250 77 279 231 500 -76 88 585 77 172 809 19Father 250 34 122 -294 65 211 143 10 597 639 32 330Teeny 250 67 241 -450 -201 -155 334 95 321 758 152 90Ma&Pa 250 99 358 513 -364 19 435 310 5 665 335 1Profile A 0 -945 -209 -716Profile B 0 148 58 -400Prevention 340 26 94 109 219 -127 27 153 295 157 630 212Prescribed 150 102 370 521 -641 -7 270 577 0 398 602 0I find it @ home 175 92 331 -674 -247 91 525 100 78 867 117 16It's a good habit 285 29 104 126 248 154 30 164 365 157 607 235This is my 1st time 50 28 101 -670 -115 -313 148 6 262 802 24 174Item 1 0 -464 -121 -317Item 2 0 -7 73 152Item 3 0 -195 174 98

Brand Mapping: Vitamins Usage

Ma&Pa

Teeny

Father

Mother

This is my 1st time

Prescribed

I f ind it @ home

It's a good habit

Prevention

Profile B

Profile A

Item 3

Item 2

Item 1

Axis 1 - Explained variance = 55%

Axi

s 2

- Exp

lain

ed v

aria

nce

= 39

%

Explained variance (3-axis inertia) = 100%


Brand Mapping: Missing Data Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data Filter: Have used vitamines in the past week.Question: Why have you taken vitamines during the past week?

Product

AProduct

BProduct

CProduct

DProduct

EProduct

FMother 101 52 60 60Father 64 53 14 36Cousin 4 8 17 2Neighbour 10 14 24 73Teeny 6 56 65 14 48 54Ma&Pa 79 69 30 52 32 67Friend 6 10 22 2 91 18

b. Output Data Eigenvalues 1 2 3

Values 0.0947 0.0450 0.0079Inertia % 64% 30% 5%Inertia cum. % 64% 95% 100%

Mass Inertia Inertia ‰ 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3Mother 462 11 75 -112 61 -87 62 38 438 530 155 315Father 281 29 199 -236 -201 92 165 254 301 531 388 81Cousin 53 33 226 -74 769 195 3 693 252 9 932 60Neighbour 204 74 500 598 -59 19 771 16 10 989 10 1Teeny 0 -54 507 413Ma&Pa 0 -170 -111 102Friend 0 -41 309 66Product A 202 34 230 -377 -116 -115 302 61 335 841 80 78Product B 143 16 110 -267 -77 191 108 19 658 628 52 320Product C 130 37 248 90 523 -15 11 790 4 29 971 1Product D 192 61 411 535 -174 -12 579 130 3 903 96 0Product E 167 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 408 68 524Product F 167 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 408 68 524

Brand Mapping: Vitamins Usage

Cousin

Neighbour

Father

Mother

Product C

Product B Product F

Product E

Product D Product A

Friend

Ma&Pa

Teeny

Axis 1 - Explained variance = 64%

Axi

s 2

- Exp

lain

ed v

aria

nce

= 30

%

Explained variance (3-axis inertia) = 100%


Brand Switch Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

Sales $ Camel Lucky Strike ChesterfieldYear 1925 24310.1 9750.9 14020.6Year 1926 23459.0 9130.7 15491.9Year 1927 21656.0 10751.0 15674.6Year 1928 19559.6 14612.0 13910.0Year 1929 17487.3 17386.3 13208.0Year 1930 16179.5 19800.0 12102.1Year 1931 15919.8 21276.1 10885.7Year 1932 14116.8 21627.1 12337.7Year 1933 13434.0 19271.1 15376.5Year 1934 16434.3 15871.7 15775.6Year 1935 18593.2 14487.0 15001.5Year 1936 19588.4 13972.5 14520.6Year 1937 19636.5 14179.3 14265.8Year 1938 18473.0 15362.1 14246.6Year 1939 18011.4 16145.8 13924.4Year 1940 17828.7 16828.6 13424.4Year 1941 17208.4 17564.2 13309.0Year 1942 16958.4 18516.2 12607.0Year 1943 15751.5 18631.6 13698.4


b. Output Report

Br a nd S wi t c h

Chest er f i e ld(To-Fr om): 0.053

Lucky St r i ke(To-Fr om): -0.047

Camel

( T o- Fr om) : 0 . 006

Br a nd S wi t c h

Camel(To-Fr om): 0.047

Chest er f i el d(To-Fr om): -0.051

Lucky St r i ke

( T o- Fr om) : - 0 . 004

Br a nd S wi t c h

Lucky St r i ke(To-Fr om): 0.051

Camel(To-Fr om): -0.053

Chest er f i el d

( T o- Fr om) : - 0 . 002

Switch values in original units: LUCKY STRIKE

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

From Camel To From Chesterfield To Lucky StrikeTo Camel From To Chesterfield From

Loyalty Rate vs Switch Rate: LUCKY STRIKE

33.6%33.5%31.6%

30.2%28.9%

27.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.4%

0.7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Loya

lty V

alue

-0.6%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

Switc

h in

Min

us S

witc

h O

ut

Lucky Strike Switch In(new) - Out(disloyal)

FromChest er f ield To

Lucky St r ikeTo Camel From

To Chest er f ieldFrom

From Camel To

From Chesterfield To

Lucky Strike

To Camel From

-100.0%

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Correlations of Switch Values in Original Units:

LUCKY STRIKE


Gravity Analysis Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

City A Place B Town A 0 0 0 234 124 785City H Place C Town B 135 34 122 65 54 6253City I Place D Town C 187 59 156 673 1233 9856City C Place E Town D 128 56 98 345 654 5987City D Place F 76 123 128 795City F Place G 76 78 2 76City G Place H 36 22 265 357City E 34 98City B 25 34

Data Label Distance from city A Population

b. Output Report

Gravity Analysis

City A234

City H Size : 65 Dist : 88.4=65%

City I Size : 673 Dist : 69.4=37%

City C Size : 345 Dist : 57.8=45%

City D Size : 128 Dist : 43.7=57%

City F Size : 2 Dist : 69.6=92%

City G Size : 265 Dist : 17.4=48%

City E Size : 98 Dist : 20.6=61%

City B Size : 34 Dist : 18.1=72%

Gravity Analysis

Place H Size : 357 Dist : 8.2=37%

Place G Size : 76 Dist : 43.7=56%

Place F Size : 795 Dist : 34.8=28%

Place E Size : 654 Dist : 17.0=30%

Place D Size : 1233 Dist : 14.2=24%

Place C Size : 54 Dist : 20.5=60%

Place B124

Gravity Analysis

Tow n D Size : 5987 Dist : 26.1=27%

Tow n C Size : 9856 Dist : 34.3=22%

Tow n B Size : 6253 Dist : 31.9=26%

Tow n A785


Segmentation Tree Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

Age'


Profile Manager Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

A B C D

27.6%

23.3%23.5%

25.6%

21.0%

22.0%

23.0%

24.0%

25.0%

26.0%

27.0%

28.0%

Estimated share Profile chart

25%

28%

25%

25%

31%

14%

36%

25%

24%

31%

25%

25%

25%

36%

22%

25%

27%

19%

25%

25%

21%

21%

24%

25%

24%

22%

25%

25%

23%

29%

18%

25%

Price

Price deal

Premium

Pack

Quality

Shelf space

Adv

Store display

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

ABCD

Sensitivity Analysis: Product A

Sensitivity Analysis: Product A, Change in Market Share

5.0%

6.0%

8.0%

8.0%

15.0%

18.0%

20.0%

20.0%

18.5% 28.5% 38.5%

Price deal

Premium

Price

Shelf space

Store display

Pack

Quality

Adv

Attribute effect on market share


Smart Chart (Bubbles with labels) Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

Project Analysis

Project B Project F

Project A

Project D Project G

Project H

Project I

Project J Project E

Project C

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 50 100 150 200

Time to go

Cos

t of P

roje

ct

Class AClass BClass C

Bubbles = Est. Sales -- M ax = 252.7

Quadrants: Equal Size

Project F

Project B

Project A

Project I Project H

Project G

Project D

Project J Project E

Project C

-102

-52

-2

48

98

148

-89 -39 11 61 111

Time to go

Cost

of P

roje

ct

Class A

Class B

Class C

Legend:Put yor notes here

Bubbles = Est. Sales - M ax = 252.7

Quadrants: Split to Median

Project F

Project B

Project A

Project I Project H Project G Project D

Project J Project E

Project C

-111

-61

-11

39

89

139

-71 -21 29 79 129

Time to go

Cost

of P

roje

ct


Legend:Put yor no tes here


Quadrants: Split to Mean

Project F

Project B

Project A

Project I Project H Project G Project D

Project J Project E

Project C

-106

-56

-6

44

94

144

-77 -27 23 73 123

Time to go

Cost

of P

roje

ct


Legend:Put yor notes here



User Form

c. Input Data

b. Output Report

Bubbles with Arrows

2003

2002

2001

2003

2002

2001

2003

2002

2001

2003

2002

2001

2003

2002

2001

2003

2002

2001

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

550 750 950 1150 1350 1550 1750 1950

Sales Value (Hor)

Mkt

Gro

wth

(Ver

)

Day Face CremeHair systemHand CareLipsticksNight Face CremeSun Protection

Bubbles = Product Profit (Bubble) - M ax = 321.7


Semantic Differential Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

My Left Shoe

10

5

32

76

4

7

11

14

29

25

7

22

47

22

18

45

21

65

35

5

74

36

79

56

9

44

76

69

62

46

84

26

83

52

71

56

21

25

8

69

78

44

37

24

36

18

3

59

4

46

These are Alta Moda shoes

I have seen the advertisement

I have seen them in a w indow

Good quality/price relationship

I bought the brand before

They are status symbols

These shoes recall me of French

Many VIP's w ear them

This shoe lasts longer than others

This is the shoe for myself

Use

r Sta

tem

ent

0 20 40 60 80 100

Product A ProductB Product CProduct D Product E


4-D Map Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report 4D Chart

Cardio

Others

CNS

Antiinfective

Respiratory

Oncology

Gastro

Women's health Diabetis

Coord X

Coo

rd Y

4D Chart

Cardio

Others

CNS

Antiinfective

Respiratory

Oncology

Gastro

Women's health Diabetis

Coord X

Coo

rd Y

2 1 3


Stacked Charts Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output report My First Stacked Chart

1.02

0.34

0.921.010.810.84

9354

334

23123112

0.26

0.81

1.37

0.270.720.88

0.620.38

0.750.43

0.791.07

ProductA

ProductB

ProductC

ProductD

ProductE

ProductF

Series 4

Series 3

Series 2

Series 1

My first stacked chart

1.020.34

0.921.010.810.84

9354334

23123112

0.260.81

1.370.270.72

0.88

0.620.380.750.430.791.07

0.810.840.750.3

0.720.88

0.060.81

0.430.75

0.30.35

1.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.25

Product A Product B Product C Product D Product E Product F

Series 2

Series 5

Series 4

Series 3

Series 2

Series 1

My first stacked chart

1.020.34

0.921.010.810.84

9354334

23123112

0.260.81

1.370.270.72

0.88

0.620.380.750.430.791.07

0.810.840.750.3

0.720.88

0.06

0.810.43

0.750.30.35

1.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.251.000.750.500.25

Product A Product B Product C Product D Product E Product F

Series 2

Series 5

Series 4

Series 3

Series 2

Series 1


Benchmark Map Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

Competitive Dynamic Analysis

HM R

ROCHE

NOVARTIS

BAYER

GLAXO

NOVONORDIS

ZENECA

JANSSEN

WYETH

LILLY

P&UPJOHN

ABBOTT

SB PHARM A

M SD

ASTRA

SANOFI

SCHERING

LUNDBECK

BM S

PFIZER

-9%

1%

11%

21%

31%

41%

51%

61%

-9% 1% 11% 21% 31% 41% 51% 61%

Product Growth (%)

Mar

ket G

row

th (%

)

Lose M arket Share

Win M arket Share

Keep M arket Share


Project (Mind) Mapping Floating Toolbar

User Form

b. Output Report


CrossTab (Contingency Tables) Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

Code Range

Sex LanguageClient Class Region Why using Swiffer?

1 Female English Class A North Remove dust2 Male Spanish Class B Center Quick job3 French Class C South Friend suggestion4 Curiosity5 Others

b. Output Report

Open-end question

Closed-end question


Sample Manager Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Output Report MM4XL© - Sample Size: Sensitivity analysis - Population size (N): - Confidence level:: - Error level:: - Hypothesis of the study: - Sample size (n):


Proportion Analyst Floating Toolbar

User Form

b. Output Report

MM4XL© - Comparison of proportions, two-tailed. Hypothesis Ha: (Proportion 1 - Proportion 2) 0.000

Significance (required): 95.000% Probability (achieved): 88.139% p Value: 23.723% (= 11.861% * 2 tails) z Value: -1.1819 Conclusion NO, the difference between proportions is not statistically significant.


Variation Analyst Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report Method: ANOVA - One-factor analysis of variance User Input Data: Statistics

Input Data

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

ItemsDiscount 3x2 Quantity

Group Comparison: Report

130.8

167.8

114.1

1277.3

1906.5

854.3

Discount 3x2 Quantity

Average Variance

Quadrant analysis: Discount vs Quantity

Quadrant analysis: Discount vs Quantity

Item 7

Item 6Item 5

Item 4

Item 3

Item 2

Item 1

70.3

103.6

137.0

92 141 190

D isco unt

Disappoint Head to head

Tough jobs Got it!


Cluster Analysis: Ward’s Method Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report Dendrogram

NovartisRoche

Glaxo

Aventis

AstraZenecaMerck

PfizerPharmacia

BMS

Schering-P.Abbott

SKB

LillyAHP

J&J

Warner L.Bayer

Boehring I.Basf

SanofiNovo Nordisk

0 200 400 600 800 1000

Index

Levels histogram

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1000.0

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Kno

t

Index


Cluster Analysis: K-Means Method Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report

Item Dispersion Around Group Center

Pfizer

BM S

J&J

Lilly

Pharmacia

AHP

Schering-P.

Warner Lambert

AbbottM erck

AstraZeneca

Glaxo

SKB

Aventis

Novartis

Roche

Bayer

Sanofi

Boehring I.

Basf Novo Nordisk


Descriptive Analyst Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data

b. Output Report Pareto chart report: Bin range.

Pareto Chart - Series:%Error

9.5%

31.7%

52.4%

74.6%84.1% 87.3%

93.7%100.0%

6.3% 15.9%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-15.6% -11.8% -8.1% -4.3% -0.6% 3.1% 6.9% 10.6% 14.4% M ore

Bin

Freq

uenc

y

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

FrequencyCumulative %

Descriptive statistics report

Box plot

-19.3%

18.1%

-5.9%

-1.1%

3.2%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

%Error


Forecast Manager Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data


b. Output Report 1: Forecast

Forecast Chart - Series: Appliance Shipments

256

306

356

406

456

506

Inpu

t - F

orec

ast

Observed Forecast -5% +5%

Best Fit : Brown's Linear Exponent ial Smoot hingMSE: 118.111 MAPE: 2.8%MAD: 9.155 R-squared: 87.9%Theil's U: 0.254 Durbin-Wat son: 0.112

Cumulative Sum Control Chart (CuSum)Series: Appliance Shipments

Lower Limit -2 SD

Upper Limit +2 SD

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58Time

Cum

ulat

ive

Fore

cast

Er

ror

Special Events Analysis - Series: Appliance Shipments

Lost: 0.5%or 1.7

Won: 1.0%or 2.9

LLim -2SD

LLim -1SD

ULim +1SD

ULim +2SD

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

Time%

For

ecas

t Err

or

Fa v or a bl e Ev e nt s

Adv e r se Ev e nt s

Special event s summary: - Favorable: 1.0% or 2.9 - Adverse: -0.5% or -1.7 - Tot al: 0.4% or 1.2


Hidden Sheet

c. Output Report 2: Forecast Special Events

Forecast Chart - Series: Sales

Green: values aboveMax Conf Int

929

2929

4929

6929

8929

10929

12929

14929

Inpu

t - F

orec

ast

Observed Forecast -5% +5%

Best Fit : Holt 's double exponential smoothingM SE: 7543.128 M APE: 4.2%M AD: 56.160 R-squared: 99.9%Theil's U: 1.048 Durbin-Watson: 2.541

Special events summary table Coefficient: Average values Smoothing metQuadratic trend

Kind of event

Input value

Smoothed value

Event effect

Event effect %

Event coefficient

Time period:7 Promo -15 10780 1317.0 9463.0 718.5% 724.0%Time period:8 Comp action 870 1327.6 -457.6 -34.5% -26.2%Time period:16 Promo -15 11020 1328.4 9691.6 729.6%Time period:17 Comp action 1090 1326.9 -236.9 -17.9%Time period:21 Promo -20% 1510 1448.7 61.3 4.2% 4.2%


Quality Manager Floating Toolbar

User Form a. Input Data


Decision Tree Floating Toolbar

User Form

a. Input Data: Multiply Path b. Output Report: Multiply Path


a. Input Data: Maximize / Minimize Utility Path

20.0% 534.1700 20.0%

18.0% 639.1805 18.0%

WAHR Items sold?-165.9 724.2

23.0% 744.1910 23.0%

39.0% 849.11015 39.0%

20.0% 509.2700 0.0%

18.0% 614.2805 0.0%

FALSCH Items sold?-190.785 699.3

23.0% 719.2910 0.0%

39.0% 824.21015 0.0%

What quantity?724.2

20.0% 484.3700 0.0%

18.0% 589.3805 0.0%


23.0% 694.3910 0.0%

39.0% 799.31015 0.0%

20.0% 459.4700 0.0%

18.0% 564.4805 0.0%


23.0% 669.4910 0.0%

39.0% 774.41015 0.0%

Best Order

Week 1

200 Items

230 Items

290 Items

260 Items

200 Items

230 Items

290 Items

260 Items

200 Items

230 Items

290 Items

260 Items

200 Items

230 Items

290 Items

260 Items

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

b. Output Report: Maximize Utility Path MM4XL - Decision Tree Risk Profile ReportTree: Tree #1 of Decision Tree.xlsCreated on 30.05.2003 at 12:35:42

Risk ProfileProfile # Value Probability

1 534 20.00%2 639 18.00%3 744 23.00%4 849 39.00%

Mean 724Minimum 534Maximim 849

Optimum Path: Tree #1

20.00% 18.00%23.00%

39.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

534 639 744 849Value

Prob

abili

ty

Optimum Path (scatter)Tree #1

23.00%

18.00%

20.00%

39.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0 200 400 600 800 1000Value

Prob

abili

ty

Cumulative Probability: Tree #1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

518 550 581 613 644 676 707 739 770 802 833 865Value

Cum

ul P

roba

bilit

y


Risk Analyst Floating Toolbar

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All Tools - MM4XL · 2011. 7. 12. · MarketingStat Christoph Merian-Ring 11 – CH-4153 Reinach – Switzerland – +41.61.401 6055 – [email protected] – Page 4 of 40 Portfolio