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@all studying the #twitter phenomenon December 2009

@all studying the #twitter phenomenon - KOCWcontents.kocw.net/KOCW/document/2014/dongguk/leeyoung...Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas •

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@all studying the #twitter phenomenon

December 2009

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 2

This work is licensed by faberNovel and L’Atelier under the

Creative Commons to allow for further contributions by other

specialists and web users in the coming months.

To view a copy of this Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike3.0

Unported license, visit:

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/ or send a letter

to Creative Commons, 1712nd Street, Suite300, San Francisco,

California, 94105, USA.

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 3

To comment the study, tag your messages with:

#twitterstudy

To watch the live presentation, go to:

talk.fabernovel.com

Comment this study

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 36

What is twitter?

What do people do with twitter?

Why did twitter grow so fast?

What business model for twitter?

Who could challenge twitter?

Conclusion

Summary

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 37

Make the bird lay golden eggs: hypothesis for

twitter’s business model

Market research

Companies pay to do market research on

twitter, twitter selects the panels and

analyses the results

Couponing and/or SMS advertising

• ads and/or coupons to opt-in twitter accounts.

• Prospects selected by geolocation or by twitter

Contextual ads (Google Adwords like)

Contextual ads on twitter search and during

tweeting

Freemium

You have to pay to get “pro” access to Twitter

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 38

Advantages Risks

twitter could engage in a wrong business

model.

twitter would pay all the testing costs to find the appropriate

business model

twitter would acquirea real business

experience.

twitter has high and short-term financialexpectations, twittershould monetize fastto keep VC happy.

When should twitter begin to monetize?1) Now

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / Atelier BNP - Paribas • 39

Advantages Risks

When should twitter begin to monetize?2) Later

twitter has such a big community, that it could start its monetization by testing various

business models at a small-scale.

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 40

What is twitter?

What do people do with twitter?

Why did twitter grow so fast?

What business model for twitter?

Who could challenge twitter?

Conclusion

Summary

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 41

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 42

facebook is a giant compared to Twitter

facebook?The ox that wants to be the frog

350M users approx 20M users

facebook looks more and more like twitter since the acquisition of friendfeed :

facebook wants to go public

+ = ?

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 43

Personal activities

Private real-time information

facebook?twitter competes with facebook on contextual ads, real-time search and CRM

20M users

Business purposes

Public real-time information

Users are more reluctant to have ads on facebook than on twitter.

Tweets have a larger public than facebook updates’.

More information is available on twitter than on facebook, making

real-time search more accurate.

Unless facebook succeeds in becoming public, twitter has a better position.

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 44

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 45

• Old news

• Steady content

• The web’s long term

memory

• Page rank

Need twitter’s real time

content

Need access to twitter

firehose to rank tweets

Google?twitter & Google cooperate in the field of real time search

20M users

• Real time news

• Dynamic content

• The web’s short term

memory

• Retweet rank ?

Need Google search

technology & traffic

They reached in October 2009 an agreement to include twitter

content in Google search results

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 46

Google?pushes initiatives towards a fragmented real-time content market...

• Google Wave could become a universal real-time conversation

platform

• Google will index the whole real-time web thanks to PubSubHubHub, a real-

time protocol

• In December 2009 Google struck formal partnership with facebook,

mySpace and twitter to index their live updates

=> The new version of the Google search engine, Caffeine, will emphasize

real-time search results including tweets, blog items, news articles and social

networking updates

...and a monopolistic real-time search market

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 47

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 48

Spam?A threat for Twitter

Tweetomercials Cons

Spammers use Twitter for two purposes :

Though Twitter is making progress on blocking spam (they introduced a “report spam”

function on October), spam could reflect as badly on Twitter as it reflected on Myspace.

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 49

• open source, no character limitation.

• belongs to Google

=> Google didn’t build a large enough community to compete with

twitter

Other micro-blogging services ?

For the time being, no other microblogging platform is in position to

compete with twitter : twitter rules them all!

•“Niche” market : enterprise microblogging

• Has a business model

• internal company information

=> Popular but doesn’t directly compete with Twitter

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 50

What is twitter?

What do people do with twitter?

Why did twitter grow so fast?

What business model for twitter?

Who could challenge twitter?

Conclusion

Summary

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 51

Worst case scenario:Twitter may be asphyxiated by competition on all of its potential markets

By willing to maintain a wide-open “pulse of the world”, twitter may be

overwhelmed by businesses grounded in reality

Information

analysisReal-time

protocol

New protocols may

enable broadcasting

quicker, free and

less proprietary real-

time content

Eg : Pubshubhub

protocol as a push-

notification RSS may

offer real-time

broadcast to all

All social networks

foster real-time

status broadcasting,

and compete with

twitter on features

and privacy

Eg : Facebook as a

Twitter based on

real-life social

network

As real-time streams

grow from various

sources, the real

business model may

belong to companies

able to filter the

information.

Eg : Google Caffeine

as a competitor on

real-time search

Companies duplicate

Twitter interface but

specialize efficiently

on vertical markets

Eg : Yammer creates

a B2B Twitter with

specific distribution,

features and

business model

Social

Network

Specialized

Business tool

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 52

Best case scenario:Twitter may become....

Information

analysisReal-time

protocol

Social

Network

Specialized

Business tool

The most trusted

source for real-time

data

The first mode of

communication

between individuals

Robust platform for

analyzing massive

amounts of real time

data and behavior

Ensure customer

satisfaction and

loyalty, while

providing targeted,

geolocalized ads

…a standard of real-time information, data, and communication

between individuals and businesses. Twitter can be the leading

communication platform for commerce and people.

Real time

analytics CRM

E-commerce

Friend

updates

Contact mgmt

Social Search

Media

Geolocation

Services

Real time

feedback

$$$$$$$$

Human

behavior

Data

aggregation

Celebrities

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 53

The Innovation Agency

faberNovel, founded in 2003, specializes in designing and realizing innovative

projects.

Based in Paris and San Francisco, faberNovel builds on emerging technologies,

methodologies or practices to create new products.

faberNovel’s team combines the necessary talents and passion to turn their clients’

wishes into market realities: Idea > concept > prototype > product > success!

References: Avis, Groupe Suez, JCDecaux, L’Oréal, Orange, Pages Jaunes, RATP,

SFR, SNCF, Vinci, etc.

See our strategic studies on:

http://www.fabernovel.com/en/analyze/realisation/strategic-studies-and-surveys

..…….

Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 54

Tracking and sharing innovation : since its beginning in 1978 in Paris, L’Atelier has

been helping executive committee in such fields as innovation and internet strategy.

L'Atelier teams have been actively involved in technology for years, acquiring solid

expertise and an impressive network of contacts. Strategic and operational insights

from L'Atelier experts have earned a reputation for both vision and provocative

thinking. A respected observer of developments in France, L’Atelier opened a San

Francisco office in 2006 and one in Shanghai in 2007.

http://www.atelier.fr | http://www.atelier-us.com | http://asie.atelier.fr

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Twitter Study • December 09 • faberNovel / L’Atelier de BNP - Paribas • 55

17, rue du fbg du Temple 75010 Paris

Tél. : +33 1 42 72 20 04

Fax. : +33 1 42 72 20 03

www.fabernovel.com

16 rue de Hanovre 75002 Paris

Tél. : +33 1 43 16 92 00

Fax. : +33 1 43 16 91 00

http://www.atelier.fr/