1

All Island Environmental Health Forum

Tomorrow’s Environmental Health

Developments in the International Climate Change Agenda

Owen RyanDepartment of the Environment,Heritage & Local Government

May 2010

2

Climate Change AgendaInternational agenda UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

(1992); Kyoto Protocol (1997);

(Commitment period 2008-2012) IPCC – 4th scientific assessment report (2007).

EU agenda European Climate Change Programme.

National agenda 1st National Climate Change Strategy

published 2000. 2nd Strategy (2007-2012) published April 2007. Commitment to the Climate Change Bill 2010.

3

Ultimate objective

Ultimate objective of UN convention: stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse

gas concentrations at levels that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Convention strengthened with the adoption of Kyoto Protocol in 1997; but Protocol targets will expire at end 2012.

4

International negotiationsFocused on finding a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.EU pressing for a comprehensive treaty based on keeping global temperature within 2˚C of pre-industrial levels.Copenhagen Accord (Dec ’09) contains positive commitments on action but falls well short of EU ambition. Not legally binding!

5

Future negotiations

16th Conference of the Parties to the Convention – Mexico, December 2010. EU position - a stepwise approach, building

on Copenhagen Accord. Need decisions to anchor the Copenhagen

Accord in the UN process.

17th Conference in South Africa in 2011. Possible agreement on new treaty.

6

Independent EU ambition

Binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020. Underpinned by the 2008 EU Climate

and Energy legislative package.

Conditional offer to step up to 30% as part of a global and comprehensive international agreement for the post-2012 period.

7

National policy

National Climate Change Strategy 2007-2012 (published April 2007) mitigation, and adaptation.

Annual Carbon Budget Introduced 2007 to progress policy

development.

Climate Change Bill to provide, i.a.: statutory basis for policies and principles;

and national mitigation and adaptation plans.

8

AdaptationIPCC definition: adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

Impacts are inevitable due to current and historic emissions; adaptation is essential.Policy development in Ireland still at a relatively early stage.

9

Context for adaptation policy

Effective global mitigation essential.Adaptation not an option; current and historic emissions.Challenges and opportunities.Not a stand-alone issue; risk assessment/risk management objective that must be – informed by best available science, and embedded in all policy areas - integration.

Awareness – influence behaviour to reduce impacts/costs and maximise opportunities.Responses must not be counter-productive.

10

General impacts

Globally – rising temperatures, heat-waves, rising sea levels, droughts, floods, storms and fires.Northern Europe: initial impacts may include benefits,

such as less demand for heating, and increased crop yields and forest growth, but

negative impacts are likely to outweigh benefits.

11

Potential health impacts

According to IPCC, projected climate change related exposures likely to affect the health status of millions of people through, i.a. increased deaths, disease and injury due to

heatwaves, floods, fires storms and droughts; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory

diseases; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious

disease vectors.

Greatest risk to people with low adaptive capacity.

12

Possible impacts in Ireland

By the end of 21st century: average temperature projected to rise, possibly

by as much as 1-4˚C; autumn and winter seasons will become wetter,

possibly by as much as 15-25%;. summers will become drier, possibly by as much

as 10-18%.

Extreme events may become more frequent and intense, e.g. storms, droughts, flooding. Coastal zones may be particularly vulnerable

13

National adaptation policy Objective – to provide a national framework for the integration of adaptation into decision-making at national and local level.Foundation – 2009 report from EPA: A Summary of the State of Knowledge on

Climate Change Impacts for Ireland.

Ongoing work on key issues, including vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity.Climate Change Bill to provide for policy responses through adaptation planning.

14

Stakeholder input to policyOpportunities for stakeholder input: Heads of the Climate Change Bill and

the Regulatory Impact Assessment, and

draft national adaptation framework when published.

“A well defined and reassuring response to potential health impacts will be a key component of a comprehensive and successful national adaptation framework.” Minister Gormley, Feb ’10)

15

Conclusion

Climate change – one of the greatest threats facing mankind and a key cross-cutting policy issue for Government.Global GHG emissions must be halved by 2050; developed countries in aggregate must reduce emissions by 80% or more.Targets for 2020 and beyond will be much more onerous than Kyoto Protocol; need for transition to low-carbon future.Adaptation to inevitable impacts essential.