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2010 2010
. 1758 . ..
, , , . 2 . , . (55%) (40%) .
:
(ASTM) ( ) (FC, ) (VM, ) (CV, maf, btu/lb)
- B C B C B
> 98% 92% - 98% 86% - 92% 78% - 86% 69% - 78% 31% - 69%
31% > 14000 13000 14000 10 500 13 000 10500 13000 10500 11500 9500 10500 8300- 9500 6300 - 8300 < 6300
( ) (FSI, CSN) (Roga) ( ) GrayGray King
1- , 2- 3 3-
435 334 3 >4 >45 333332a 332b
535 534 533 532 523 522 521 512 511 500 5
635 634 633 632 623 622 621 612 611 600 6 733 732 723 722 721 712 711 700 7 832 823 822 821 812 811 800 8 900 9
5 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 1 0
>140 >50-140 >0-50 >0 50 0-50 G8 G5-G8 G1-G4 G1 G4 E-G G1-G4 E-G B-D
434 433 432 423 422 421 412 411 400 4
323 2 2-4 > 20 -45 322 321 312 1 1-2 > 5- 20 311 100 0 0 05 A V daf (%) Qgr, maf (btu/lb) 0 1 >3-10 0-3>36.5 >6.5 -10
10-14
>14-20
>20-28
>28-33
>33
>33 >1296013950
>33 >1098012960
>33 >1026010980
: 6: 33% - 41% 7: 33% - 44% 8: 35% - 50% 9: 42% - 50%
-
-
-
-
-
-
>13950
- >85 (FM) (Y25 mm, b>220)
65-85
(JM) (Y 1 dock, 50--> 4 dock, 100--> 1 dock 30, 50, 100, 30 50 100 150 80 50, 70, 100 100 6 100
Qinhuangdao Tianjin Caofeidian Jinzhou Russian ports Vanino Vastochny
200 60 100 50
10.5 10 5 6 4 1.35
7200t/h 91, 4300t/h 104 day: 24000t, annual: 8.7Mt
21 4 16 5
9250t/h 6700t/h 6000t/h 35
12 12.5
-12 -13
150 150 9000t/h
TT
Ukhaa-Khudag Competitive Strategy
: 0.025 USD/t.km : 0.015 USD/t.km : 0.020 USD/t.km
- -
Ukhaa-Khudag Competitive Strategy
- -
Ukhaa-Khudag Competitive Strategy
. . 0.06-0.08 USD/t.km
Carbon/ Energy Content of Coal HIGH Moisture Content of Coal HIGH
Brown Coal (low rank coal) (48%)
Hard Coal (high rank coal) (52%)
Lignite Coal (20%)
Sub-Bituminous Coal (28%)
Anthracite (1%)
Bituminous Coal (51%)
Thermal (Steam Coal)
Metallurgical (Coking Coal)
1000 kg g Raw coal 700 kg Clean coal
Blend coal: (HCC 37%, FC 20%, SHC 18%, LC 11% other 14%)
1700 kg Iron ore
500 kg Met coke
150 kg Limestone
1000 kg Crude steel
, . 86-94% . , (96%- ) . K , , , , , , .
. , , . . 1100 . , . .
-50 % - 35% - 10% -5%
(coal tar) , , , . , , . , . , , , . .
- \creosote\ , , .- . . \cresols\ - .
. , , , . , , . . . , , , , , . . , , , , . . . , , . , , , , . , , . , . .
2009 473.3 . 473 3 63%- .
World Coal Production 6'781 Mt
Hard Coal (Sub-bituminous to anthracite) 86% 5'832 Mt
Brown Coal 14% 949 Mt
Domestic 4'922 Mt
Export 910 Mt
Seaborne 815 Mt
Land Trade 95 Mt
Thermal 4'237 Mt
Thermal 608 Mt
Thermal 74 Mt
Domestic Thermal 949 Mt
Coking Coal 685 Mt
Coking Coal 207 Mt
Coking Coal 21 Mt
Source: Barlow Jonker, 2009
Major Coal Exporters (Mt) Australia Indonesia Russia Colombia USA South Africa China Canada Other Total 2007 244 197 98 65 53 66 53 30 98 903 2008 252 203 101 74 74 62 47 32 66 910 Major Coking Coal Importer (Mt) 2007 Japan India Korea Brazil China Germany Ukraine Other Total 58.2 22.0 22.5 10.3 6.2 9.6 8.6 69.5 206.9 206 9 2008 57.4 28.8 24.1 11.3 10.3 9.3 7.4 73.9 222.5 222 5
Major Coking Coal Exporters (Mt) 2007 Australia USA Indonesia Canada Russia China Mongolia * Other Total 131 29 29 26 10 3 2 11 241 2008 137 39 30 27 16 5 3 10 264
Major Coal Importer (Mt) Japan Korea Chinese Taipei India Germany China United Kingdom USA Other Total 2007 187 88 59 50 46 51 43 33 345 903 2008 186 100 66 60 46 46 44 26 338 910
2009
Mongolian coal balance (Thousand tonnes) M li lb l (Th d ) Stock of the year beginning Produced State owned mining companies Private sector's mining companies Import Consumption Power station Industry & Construction Transport & Communication Agriculture Communal housing Other Export Stock of the year endMongolian coal exportMAC QH - MAC TT SGS ER Other mines Total Border Shiveekhuren Zamiin-Uud Shiveekhuren Gashuunsukhait Zamiin-Uud Shiveekhuren Gashuunsukhait Zamiin-Uud, Bichigt 2006 198 1,548 628
2006 391 8,0744,941 3,133
2007 317 9,2386,260 2,978
2008 381 10,0726,674 3,398
0 5,6914,595 237 121 8 550 180
1 5,9064,935 203 122 3 455 188
1 5,8134,850 190 11 7 581 174
2,457 3172007 100 1,140 1,946 12
3,268 3812008 636 166 1,119 1,990 114
4,169 4412009 1,368 12 728 1,895 1,327 1,226 160 6,716
83 2,457
69 3,268
144 4,169
7.2 Mt
8.1 Mt 5.6 Mt 14.9 Mt
23 Mt
110 Mt16 Mt
53.8 Mt38 Mt
Source: Barlow Jonker, 2009
122 Mt
85 Mt35 Mt 30 Mt 42 Mt
244 Mt273 Mt
CokingCoalPrice(FOB) GoonyellaHCC(A:8.9,S:0.52,V:24.3)300 250 200 USD D/t 150 100 50 0 HCC Semi-Hard
1998 51 43
1999 42 36
2000 40 34
2001 43 42
2002 48 39
2003 46 37
2004 57 47
2005 125 103
2006 115 83
2007 96 73
2008 300 284
2009 129 110
Broker ABN-RBS BMO Capital Cazenove Citi Credit Suisse DB HSBC ING Macquarie BAS-ML Morgan Stanley RBC Sa a a t e s Salman Partners Scotia Capital Societe Generale TD Newcrest UBS Average Median Date 23-Sep-09 25-Sep-09 1-Oct-09 25-Sep-09 3-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 18-Sep-09 12-Aug-09 13-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 21-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 30 Sep 09 30-Sep-09 22-Sep-09 29-Sep-09 29-Sep-09 4-Sep-09 2010 150.0 145.0 155.0 186.5 130.0 127.8 160.0 140.9 160.0 140.0 140.0 150.0 150.0 50.0 164.0 145.0 150.0 163.5 150.4 150 4 150.0 2011 150.0 150.0 155.0 188.8 135.0 122.5 120.0 n.a. 140.0 140.0 155.0 150.0 150.0 50.0 n.a. n.a. 150.0 n.a. 146.6 146 6 150.0 2012 145.0 145.0 125.0 n.a. 140.0 117.0 100.0 n.a. 140.0 130.0 160.0 135.0 135.0 35.0 n.a. n.a. 125.0 n.a. 133.1 133 1 135.0 2013 145.0 n.a. 90.0 n.a. 151.5 113.3 100.0 n.a. n.a. 125.0 n.a. 120.0 n.a. .a. n.a. n.a. 125.0 n.a. 121.2 121 2 122.5 2014 125.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. .a. n.a. n.a. 125.0 n.a. 125.0 125 0 125.0
US$/tLT 92.9 135.0 90.0 120.0 140.0 99.7 90.0 90.0 120.0 96.6 97.2 110.0 104.2 0 . n.a. n.a. 107.8 115.0 107.2 107 2 104.2
Source: Broker reports as of October 1, 2009 Note: All prices based on Japanese fiscal year end and are on a nominal basis (flat 2.5% inflation rate) except for long term price which is on 2009 real terms
Broker ABN-RBS BMO Capital Cazenove Citi Credit Suisse DB HSBC ING Macquarie BAS-ML Morgan Stanley RBC Salman Partners Societe Generale Average Median Date 23-Sep-09 25-Sep-09 1-Oct-09 1 Oct 09 25-Sep-09 3-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 18-Sep-09 12-Aug-09 13-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 21-Sep-09 14-Sep-09 30-Sep-09 29-Sep-09 2010 75.0 76.0 75.0 75 0 80.0 80.0 72.0 75.0 68.2 70.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 75.0 76.5 75.5 2011 77.5 76.0 75.0 75 0 86.3 80.0 76.3 70.0 n.a. 80.0 85.0 90.0 80.0 80.0 n.a. 79.7 80.0 2012 80.0 72.0 65.0 65 0 n.a. 85.0 80.0 60.0 n.a. 70.0 78.0 100.0 75.0 75.0 n.a. 76.4 75.0 2013 82.5 n.a. 55.0 55 0 n.a. 86.6 n.a. 60.0 n.a. n.a. 75.0 n.a. 65.0 n.a. n.a. 70.7 70.0 2014 75.0 n.a. n.a. na n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 70.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 75.0 75.0
US$/tLT 60.4 67.0 55.0 55 0 50.0 80.0 72.5 55.0 60.0 70.0 63.8 61.9 60.0 63.4 n.a. 63.0 61.9
Source: Broker reports as of October 1, 2009 Note: All prices based on Japanese fiscal year end and are on a nominal basis (flat 2.5% inflation rate) except for long term price which is on 2009 real terms
. e-mail: [email protected] :99095039