Algae Neg PlansMS - Plan: The United States federal government should give financial incentives for algae biofuels in US territorial oceanic waters. Advantages: Climate Change (Warming, Food Security), EconomyNotes: Recreational boating solves the aff, fishing da.

CM Plan: The United States Federal Government should substantially increase incentives for algae biofuel production. Advantages: Food vs. Fuel, Warming, Green Tech Leadership, Peak OilT - ExtractionA. Ocean development is extraction from the oceanHibbard et al 10 K. A. Hibbard, R. Costanza, C. Crumley, S. van der Leeuw, and S. Aulenbach, J. Dearing, J. Morais, W. Steffen, Y. Yasuda --- International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. 2010 Developing an Integrated History and Future of People on Earth (IHOPE): Research Plan IGBP Report No. 59.http://www.igbp.net/download/18.1b8ae20512db692f2a680006394/report_59-IHOPE.pdfA common characteristic of human-in-environment development is extraction and consumption of natural resources. A typical response to the exhaustion of these resources has been to move to new regions where continued extraction and consumption is possible. These migrations have led to colonisation of new areas, conflict and displacement of indigenous populations, introduction of new species, and so on. Only quite recently in human history has the ability to occupy new lands become limited by geopolitical constraints. New frontiers are now associated with technological advances that are used to overcome local constraints of resource availability.B. The plan violates it doesnt extract resources from one of the 5 layers.Knight 13 J.D. Knight, Sea and Sky 2013 The Sea Creatures of the Deep Sea"http://www.seasky.org/deep-sea/ocean-layers.htmlLayers of the OceanScientists have divided the ocean into five main layers. These layers, known as "zones", extend from the surface to the most extreme depths where light can no longer penetrate. These deep zones are where some of the most bizarre and fascinating creatures in the sea can be found. As we dive deeper into these largely unexplored places, the temperature drops and the pressure increases at an astounding rate. The following diagram lists each of these zones in order of depth.Limits are necessary for negative preparation and clash.

T and Extra-T voters CaseWarming 1NC FrontlineWarming is irreversible regardless of CO2 emissions- even complete cessation does not solve.Solomon 08 Susan Solomon, Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Dec 16, 2008, Available at: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.long, Accessed on: 7/17/2014, IJ) Over the 20th century, the atmospheric concentrations of key greenhouse gases increased due to human activities. The stated objective (Article 2) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a low enough level to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Many studies have focused on projections ofpossible 21st century dangers (13). However, the principles (Article 3) of the UNFCCC specifically emphasize threats of serious or irreversible damage, underscoring the importance of the longer term. While some irreversible climate changes such as ice sheet collapse are possible but highly uncertain (1,4), others can now be identified with greater confidence, and examples among the latter are presented in this paper. It is not generally appreciated that the atmospheric temperature increases caused by rising carbon dioxide concentrations are not expected to decrease significantly even if carbon emissions were to completely cease (57) (seeFig. 1). Future carbon dioxide emissions in the 21st century will hence lead to adverse climate changes on both short and long time scales that would be essentially irreversible (where irreversible is defined here as a time scale exceeding the end of the millennium in year 3000; note that we do not consider geo-engineering measures that might be able to remove gases already in the atmosphere or to introduce active cooling to counteract warming). For the same reason, the physical climate changes that are due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere today are expected to be largely irreversible. Such climate changes will lead to a range of damaging impacts in different regions and sectors, some of which occur promptly in association with warming, while others build up under sustained warming because of the time lags of the processes involved. Here we illustrate 2 such aspects of the irreversibly altered world that should be expected. These aspects are among reasons for concern but are not comprehensive; other possible climate impacts include Arctic sea ice retreat, increases in heavy rainfall and flooding, permafrost melt, loss of glaciers and snowpack with attendant changes in water supply, increased intensity of hurricanes, etc. A complete climate impacts review is presented elsewhere (8) and is beyond the scope of this paper. We focus on illustrative adverse and irreversible climate impacts for which 3 criteria are met: (i) observed changes are already occurring and there is evidence for anthropogenic contributions to these changes, (ii) the phenomenon is based upon physical principles thought to be well understood, and (iii) projections are available and are broadly robust across models.

Algae biofuels cant transition away higher GHG emissions, petroleum dependency, peak phosphorus, and lack of supplySchelmetic 13 (Tracey Schelmetic, technology and science editor at Appleton & Lange, contributor to ThomasNet, Biofuel from Algae Part One: The Pros and Cons of Pond Scum, ThomasNet, February 22, 2013, http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/2013/02/19/biofuel-from-algae-part-one-the-pros-and-cons-of-pond-scum/)//CSWhile algae-based biofuel may use far less land and have a higher energy yield than other biodiesel crops, its production also requires more energy and water (albeit not necessarily fresh water) than plant sources such as corn. It also has higher greenhouse gas emissions. The reason is that the production of the final product is more complex and therefore more energy intensive. While many kinds of algae are easy to cultivate, the species of the plant that contain the most fats are most suitable for biodiesel, and these specialized lipid-producers are a bit fussier than ordinary algae. Another challenge arises in the final algae-based biodiesel product: it simply doesnt flow well at lower temperatures. In a paper entitled, Production and Properties of Biodiesel from Algal Oils, research chemist Gerhard Knothe of the U.S. Department of Agricultures Agricultural Research Service made unexpected findings when it came to actually using algae biodiesel. He found that many, if not most, of biodiesel fuels derived from algae have significant problems when it comes to their ability to flow well at lower temperatures (referred to as cold flow). In addition, he found that algae biofuels degrade more easily than other types of biofuels. Knothe recommended that these cold flow issues might be solved by blending the algae fuels with other fuels or possibly special additives to improve flow. While algae biodiesel product is largely carbon neutral, critics point out that it still requires carbon, and that carbon is derived from petroleum-based sources, which means that algae cultivation is still essentially dependent on petroleum. Ironically, algae biofuel could actually be a victim of its own success: were it to supplant petroleum-based fuels on a large scale, it would its most important source of carbon dioxide required for production. The cultivation of algae (like the cultivation of most other plants) requires large amounts of phosphorus as a fertilizer, and while its not an oft-discussed topic, the world is currently on the brink of a peak of availability of Earths finite phosphate resources. Peak phosphorus, as its called, is the point in time at which the maximum global phosphorus production rate is reached. According to some researchers, Earths phosphorus reserves are expected to be completely depleted in 50 to 100 years, and peak phosphorus will be reached by the year 2030. (This is a fairly scary prospect for global agriculture, not just for algae production). To succeed, large scale algae production will need to reduce its use of phosphorus and find ways of reusing what it does require. The need for phosphorus in cultivation has been called by Forbes The Achilles Heel of algae biofuel. Finally, many critics point out that the world simply cant produce enough algae through natural photosynthesis to sustain the worlds need for fuel. Natural photosynthetic algae can produce about 2,000 gallons of fuel per acre per year today: far short of world demand, and far short of what scalable biofuel production requires to be economically feasible. For this reason, new production methods are being sought by the companies trying to make algae biofuel work better.Reject the climate alarmism of the 1AC their impacts are not backed by peer-reviewed dataIdso, 11 (Craig D., PhD Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 6/15/11, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Climate Change, Estimates of Global Food Production in the Year 2050: Will We Produce Enough to Adequately Feed the World? AS)Many people have long believed that the ongoing rise in the airs carbon dioxide or CO2 content has been causing the world to warm, due to the greenhouse effect of this radiatively-active trace gas of the atmosphere; and they believe that the planet will continue to warm for decades -- if not centuries -- to come, based upon economic projections of the amounts of future fossil fuel (coal, gas and oil) usage and climate-model projections of the degree of global warming they expect to be produced by the CO2 that is emitted to the atmosphere as a result of the burning of these fuels. The same people have also long believed that CO2-induced global warming will lead to a whole host of climate- and weather-related catastrophes, including more frequent and severe floods, droughts, hurricanes and other storms, rising sea levels that will inundate the planets coastal lowlands, increased human illness and mortality, the widespread extinction of many plant and animal species, declining agricultural productivity, frequent coral bleaching, and marine life dissolving away in acidified oceans. And because of these theoretical model-based projections, they have lobbied local, regional and national governments for decades in an attempt to get the nations of the world to severely reduce the magnitudes of their anthropogenic CO2 emissions. But are the scenarios painted by these climate alarmists true portrayals of what the future holds for humanity and the rest of the biosphere if their demands are not met? This is the question recently addressed in our Centers most recent major report: Carbon Dioxide and Earths Future: Pursuing the Prudent Path. In it, we describe the findings of many hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific studies that analyzed real-world data pertaining to the host of climate- and weather-related catastrophes predicted by the worlds climate alarmists to result from rising global temperatures. The approach of most of these studies was to determine if there had been any increasing trends in the predicted catastrophic phenomena over the past millennia or two, the course of the 20th century, or the past few decades, when the worlds climate alarmists claim that the planet warmed at a rate and to a degree that they contend was unprecedented over the past thousand or two years. And the common finding of all of this research was a resounding No! But even this near-universal repudiation of climate-alarmist contentions has not been enough to cause them to alter their overriding goal of reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Invoking the precautionary principle, they essentially say that the potential climatic outcomes they foresee are so catastrophic that we cannot afford to gamble upon them being wrong, evoking the old adage that it is better to be safe than sorry, even if the cost is staggering. If this were all there were to the story, we all would agree with them. But it is not, for they ignore an even more ominous catastrophe that is rushing towards us like an out-of-control freight train that is only years away from occurring. And preventing this ominous future involves letting the airs CO2 content continue its historical upward course, until the age of fossil fuels gradually peaks and then naturally, in the course of unforced innovation, declines, as other sources of energy gradually become more efficient and less expensive, and without the forced intervention of government.2NC Warming InevitableWarming is unstoppable- new IPCC report doesnt account for long term CO2 or the rate of CO2 uptake. Eby et al 09 M. EBY, K. ZICKFELD, AND A. MONTENEGRO (School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria) D. Archer (Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago) K.J Meissner and A.J Weaver (School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria) (Lifetime of Anthropogenic Climate Change: Millennial Time Scales of Potential CO2 and Surface Temperature Perturbations, Journal of Climate, May 15, 2009, Available at: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2554.1, Accessed On: 7/18/2014, IJ)

The projection of the climatic consequences of anthropogenic CO2 emissions for the twenty-rst century has been a major topic of climate research. Nevertheless, the long-term consequences of anthropogenic CO2 remain highly uncertain. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reported that about 50% of a CO2 increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries (Denmanet al. 2007, p. 501). Although the IPCC estimate of the time to absorb 50% of CO2 is accurate for relatively small amounts of emissions at the present time, this may be a considerable underestimation for large quantities of emissions. Carbon sinks may become saturated in the future, reducing the systems ability to absorb CO2. Atmospheric CO2 is currently the dominant anthropogenic greenhouse gas implicated in global warming (Forster et al. 2007); therefore, estimating the lifetime of anthropogenic climate change will largely depend on the perturbation lifetime of CO2. The perturbation lifetime is a measure of the time over which anomalous levels of CO2 or temperature remain in the atmosphere (dened here to be the time required for a fractional reduction to 1/e). Carbon emissions can be taken up rapidly by the land, through changes in soil and vegetation carbon, and by dissolution in the surface ocean. Ocean uptake slows as the surface waters equilibrate with the atmosphere and continued uptake depends on the rate of carbon transport to the deep ocean. Ocean uptake is enhanced through dissolution of existing CaCO3, often referred to as carbonate compensation. As CO2 is taken up, the ocean becomes more acidic, eventually releasing CaCO3 from deep sediments. This increases the ocean alkalinity, allowing the ocean to take up additional CO2. Carbonate compensation becomes important on millennial time scales, whereas changes in the weathering of continental carbonate and silicate are thought to become important on the 10 000 100 000-yr time scale (Archer 2005; Sarmiento and Gruber 2006; Lenton and Britton 2006).Cease in Gases Wont Stop Warming From Being InevitableSolomon 2010(Susan, Atmospheric Chemist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 11-11-10, Persistence of Climate Changes Due To A Range Of Greenhouse Gases, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2972948/, HG)Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases increased over the course of the 20th century due to human activities. The human-caused increases in these gases are the primary forcing that accounts for much of the global warming of the past fifty years, with carbon dioxide being the most important single radiative forcing agent (1). Recent studies have shown that the human-caused warming linked to carbon dioxide is nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y, even if emissions of the gas were to cease entirely (25). The importance of the ocean in taking up heat and slowing the response of the climate system to radiative forcing changes has been noted in many studies (e.g., refs. 6 and 7). The key role of the oceans thermal lag has also been highlighted by recent approaches to proposed metrics for comparing the warming of different greenhouse gases (8, 9). Among the observations attesting to the importance of these effects are those showing that climate changes caused by transient volcanic aerosol loading persist for more than 5 y (7, 10), and a portion can be expected to last more than a century in the ocean (1113); clearly these signals persist far longer than the radiative forcing decay timescale of about 1218 mo for the volcanic aerosol (14, 15). Thus the observed climate response to volcanic events suggests that some persistence of climate change should be expected even for quite short-lived radiative forcing perturbations. It follows that the climate changes induced by short-lived anthropogenic greenhouse gases such as methane or hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) may not decrease in concert with decreases in concentration if the anthropogenic emissions of those gases were to be eliminated. In this paper, our primary goal is to show how different processes and timescales contribute to determining how long the climate changes due to various greenhouse gases could be expected to remain if anthropogenic emissions were to cease. Advances in modeling have led to improved AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) as well as to Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). Although a detailed representation of the climate system changes on regional scales can only be provided by AOGCMs, the simpler EMICs have been shown to be useful, particularly to examine phenomena on a global average basis. In this work, we use the Bern 2.5CC EMIC (see Materials and Methods and SI Text), which has been extensively intercompared to other EMICs and to complex AOGCMs (3, 4). It should be noted that, although the Bern 2.5CC EMIC includes a representation of the surface and deep ocean, it does not include processes such as ice sheet losses or changes in the Earths albedo linked to evolution of vegetation. However, it is noteworthy that this EMIC, although parameterized and simplified, includes 14 levels in the ocean; further, its global ocean heat uptake and climate sensitivity are near the mean of available complex models, and its computed timescales for uptake of tracers into the ocean have been shown to compare well to observations (16). A recent study (17) explored the response of one AOGCM to a sudden stop of all forcing, and the Bern 2.5CC EMIC shows broad similarities in computed warming to that study (see Fig. S1), although there are also differences in detail. The climate sensitivity (which characterizes the long-term absolute warming response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations) is 3 C for the model used here. Our results should be considered illustrative and exploratory rather than fully quantitative given the limitations of the EMIC and the uncertainties in climate sensitivity. Results One Illustrative Scenario to 2050. In the absence of mitigation policy, concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide can be expected to increase in this century. If emissions were to cease, anthropogenic CO2 would be removed from the atmosphere by a series of processes operating at different timescales (18). Over timescales of decades, both the land and upper ocean are important sinks. Over centuries to millennia, deep oceanic processes become dominant and are controlled by relatively well-understood physics and chemistry that provide broad consistency across models (see, for example, Fig. S2 showing how the removal of a pulse of carbon compares across a range of models). About 20% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon remains in the atmosphere for many thousands of years (with a range across models including the Bern 2.5CC model being about 19 4% at year 1000 after a pulse emission; see ref. 19), until much slower weathering processes affect the carbonate balance in the ocean (e.g., ref. 18). Models with stronger carbon/climate feedbacks than the one considered here could display larger and more persistent warmings due to both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases, through reduced land and ocean uptake of carbon in a warmer world. Here our focus is not on the strength of carbon/climate feedbacks that can lead to differences in the carbon concentration decay, but rather on the factors that control the climate response to a given decay. The removal processes of other anthropogenic gases including methane and nitrous oxide are much more simply described by exponential decay constants of about 10 and 114 y, respectively (1), due mainly to known chemical reactions in the atmosphere. In this illustrative study, we do not include the feedback of changes in methane upon its own lifetime (20). We also do not account for potential interactions between CO2 and other gases, such as the production of carbon dioxide from methane oxidation (21), or changes to the carbon cycle through, e.g., methane/ozone chemistry (22). Fig. 1 shows the computed future global warming contributions for carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for a midrange scenario (23) of projected future anthropogenic emissions of these gases to 2050. Radiative forcings for all three of these gases, and their spectral overlaps, are represented in this work using the expressions assessed in ref. 24. In 2050, the anthropogenic emissions are stopped entirely for illustration purposes. The figure shows nearly irreversible warming for at least 1,000 y due to the imposed carbon dioxide increases, as in previous work. All published studies to date, which use multiple EMICs and one AOGCM, show largely irreversible warming due to future carbon dioxide increases (to within about 0.5 C) on a timescale of at least 1,000 y (35, 25, 26). Fig. 1 shows that the calculated future warmings due to anthropogenic CH4 and N2O also persist notably longer than the lifetimes of these gases. The figure illustrates that emissions of key non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as CH4 or N2O could lead to warming that both temporarily exceeds a given stabilization target (e.g., 2 C as proposed by the G8 group of nations and in the Copenhagen goals) and remains present longer than the gas lifetimes even if emissions were to cease. A number of recent studies have underscored the important point that reductions of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions are an approach that can indeed reverse some past climate changes (e.g., ref. 27). Understanding how quickly such reversal could happen and why is an important policy and science question. Fig. 1 implies that the use of policy measures to reduce emissions of short-lived gases will be less effective as a rapid climate mitigation strategy than would be thought if based only upon the gas lifetime. Fig. 2 illustrates the factors influencing the warming contributions of each gas for the test case in Fig. 1 in more detail, by showing normalized values (relative to one at their peaks) of the warming along with the radiative forcings and concentrations of CO2 , N2O, and CH4 . For example, about two-thirds of the calculated warming due to N2O is still present 114 y (one atmospheric lifetime) after emissions are halted, despite the fact that its excess concentration and associated radiative forcing at that time has dropped to about one-third of the peak value.Policy action cant solve- claims that warming is reversible neglect CO2 longevity Solomon 08 Susan Solomon, Chemical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Dec 16, 2008, Available at: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/6/1704.long, Accessed on: 7/17/2014, IJ)

It is sometimes imagined that slow processes such as climate changes pose small risks, on the basis of the assumption that a choice can always be made to quickly reduce emissions and thereby reverse any harm within a few years or decades. We have shown that this assumption is incorrect for carbon dioxide emissions, because of the longevity of the atmospheric CO2perturbation and ocean warming. Irreversible climate changes due to carbon dioxide emissions have already taken place, and future carbon dioxide emissions would imply further irreversible effects on the planet, with attendant long legacies for choices made by contemporary society. Discount rates used in some estimates of economic trade-offs assume that more efficient climate mitigation can occur in a future richer world, but neglect the irreversibility shown here. Similarly, understanding of irreversibility reveals limitations in trading of greenhouse gases on the basis of 100-year estimated climate changes (global warming potentials, GWPs), because this metric neglects carbon dioxide's unique long-term effects. In this paper we have quantified how societal decisions regarding carbon dioxide concentrations that have already occurred or could occur in the coming century imply irreversible dangers relating to climate change for some illustrative populations and regions. These and other dangers pose substantial challenges to humanity and nature, with a magnitude that is directly linked to the peak level of carbon dioxide reached.

2NC No TransitionCant solve warming may even cause more greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels Rampton and Zabarenko 12 environmental correspondents for Reuters (Roberta and Deborah, Algae biofuel not sustainable now-U.S. research council, Reuters, 10-24-12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-usa-biofuels-algae-idUSBRE89N1Q820121024)//KGGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS It said a main reason to use alternative fuels for transportation is to cut climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions created by burning fossil fuel. But estimates of greenhouse emissions from algal biofuels cover a wide range, with some suggesting that over their life cycle, the fuels release more climate-warming gas than petroleum, it said. The product now made in small quantities by Sapphire uses algae, sunlight and carbon dioxide as feedstocks to make fuel that is not dependent on food crops or farmland. The company calls it "green crude." Tim Zenk, a Sapphire vice president, said the company has worked for five years on the sustainability issues examined in the report. "The NRC has acknowledged something that the industry has known about in its infancy and began to address immediately," he said. He said Sapphire recycles water and uses land that is not suitable for agriculture at its New Mexico site, where it hopes to make 100 barrels of algal biofuel a day by 2014. The U.S. Navy used algal biofuel along with fuel made from cooking oil waste as part of its "Green Fleet" military exercises demonstration this summer, drawing fire from Republican lawmakers for its nearly $27 per gallon cost. The council study also said it was unclear whether producing that much biofuel from algae would actually lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The report shows the strategy is too risky, said Friends of the Earth, an environmental group. "Algae production poses a double-edged threat to our water resources, already strained by the drought," Michal Rosenoer, a biofuels campaigner with the group, said in a statement.

Algae biofuels rely on fossil fuels emits more CO2 than it capturesSilverstein 12 (Ken Silverstein, editor-in-chief of Breakbulk Media, which examines the trade and transportation angles, Journal of Commerce Group, Axio Data Group, Will Algae Biofuels Hit the Highway?, Forbes, May 20, 2012, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2012/05/20/will-algae-biofuels-hit-the-highway/)//CSAn Arizona-based algae technology company says its on to something big: harnessing the growth of algae at a commercial scale so that it can ultimately be used as a transportation fuel. Heliae broke ground Friday on its new plant. Now, all it needs is an abundance of sunshine, water and carbon dioxide. But while the ingredients to make algae may be simple, it is still an open question as to whether current pilot facilities can attract private investors that will enable the industry to gear up. Beyond the financial concerns, environmental worries persist. It can involve taking carbon emissions from power plants to grow the algae before converting it to something that would run cars, trucks and airplanes. In a phone interview, Heliaes Chief Executive Dan Simon explained to this writer that the companys ultimate goal is to produce transportation fuels. To get to that point, though, it will focus on near-term aims that are more attainable: chemicals, cosmetics and healthy foods. As it develops, the enterprise will then expand overseas and into the Asia Pacific region. We will never take our eyes off the transportation fuels, says Simon. But there are stepping stones to get us there. Production costs have to come down. Right now, the economics dont work. It will be 5 to 10 years before all of this will affect the price at the pump. Simon continues, saying that good science takes time and that by first picking the low hanging fruit the company will drive revenues and efficiencies, and bring down production costs. Among the key goals the company is working towards: Ensuring that the process has a positive energy impact, meaning that it cant take more energy to grow the algae than the amount of carbon dioxide that the algae would absorb. Critics maintain that the recycling of carbon lends credence to the burning of fossil fuels and in the end, more carbon is emitted than is captured. The journal of Environmental Science and Technology, furthermore, looked two years ago at the life cycle of algae compared to other bio-fuels such as corn and switch-grass. It concluded that using conventional crops to create fuels will result in fewer greenhouse gas emissions and less water consumption than if algae is used to do the same thing. The study also says that most of the carbon that is getting captured is coming from places other than power plants and oil refineries. Thats because there is not yet an effective way to bottle such releases from industrial sources On paper, algae could displace worldwide petroleum use altogether, however, the industry has yet to produce a drop of oil for commercial production, says Pike Research president Clint Wheelock. Although the algae-based biofuels market will grow rapidly once key cost hurdles are overcome, widespread scale-up will be hampered by a number of difficult challenges including access to nutrients, water, and private capital. What would help the sector get there faster? Algae bio-fuels producers are asking U.S. lawmakers to treat their product the same way as they do other advanced bio-fuels such as cellulosic ethanol. That means including algae in the tax incentives given to advanced bio-fuels and in the Renewable Fuels Standard that sets alternative fuel targets. When the code was written, algae was a nascent concept that never wound up on anyones radar. Legislation has just been introduced in the U.S. House to achieve just that. With such tax incentives, the industry says that production costs would come down. Those costs are now considered to be at least double that of petroleum-based fuels, although such figures can vary with location, technology and whether the algae plant can be located near existing power plants or oil refineries so as to capture their carbon emissions.No transition no price parity with petroleum Hannon 11 (Michael Hannon, San Diego Center for Algal Biotechnology, University of California San Diego, Division of Biology, Biofuels from algae: challenges and potential, US National Library of Medicine National Institutes of Health, August 8, 2011, http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3152439/)//CSWith current estimates of algal-based biofuels ranging from US$3002600 per barrel based on current technology, technical hurdles need to be overcome to improve this price. Some of these improvements can come from improving growth strategies and engineering, as discussed previously, but improvements can also come from optimizing the use of the entire organism. Although the final price of a barrel of algae oil when production goes to large scale is difficult to extrapolate from the present small production facilities, system improvements will certainly bring costs down. Figure 5 illustrates our estimates of the relative impacts of technological improvements on the economic viability of algae biofuels. Most analysts do not predict full parity with petroleum in the near future. More likely, the initial selling point of algal fuels will be approximately twofold higher than petroleum, but the environmental costs will be substantially lower than our current strategy of depending on fossil fuels.

2NC No ExtinctionNone of their studies have predictive validity reject try or die framing.Sadar 7/7 (Anthony J., Prof @ Geneva College specializing in Earth and Environmental Science, Statistics, Air Pollution Meteorology and Engineering, Why the former Ice Age became global warming, then climate change, Washington Examiner 7/7/14, http://washingtonexaminer.com/why-the-coming-ice-age-became-global-warming-then-climate-change/article/2550565)//mmToday, it is fashionable to expect disaster from too much warmth. So the smart money is on promoting dire predictions and consequences of rising thermometers, even in the face of no global warming for more than 15 years. From my own 35 years of experience in the atmospheric science profession as an air-pollution meteorologist, air quality program administrator and science educator, I can attest the fact that long-range, global climate-change outlooks are nothing but insular professional opinion. Such opinion is not worthy of the investment of billions of dollars to avoid the supposed catastrophic consequences of abundant, inexpensive fossil fuels and, subsequently, to impoverish U.S. citizens with skyrocket energy costs. I have conducted or overseen a hundred air-quality studies, many using sophisticated atmospheric modeling. Such modeling comparable to or even involving the same models as those used in climate modeling produced results for relatively short-term, local areas that, although helpful to understanding air quality impact issues, were far from being able to bet billions of taxpayer dollars on. Yet similar climate models that imagine conditions for the entire globe for decades into the future are used to do just that bet billions of taxpayer dollars. Bottom line, nobody can detail with any billion-dollar-spending degree of confidence what the global climate will be like decades from now. But, its easy to predict that, given enough monetary incentive and the chance to be at the pinnacle of popularity, some climate prognosticators and certainly every capitalizing politician will continue to proffer convincing climate claims to an unwary public.

No impact to warming history and scientific study proveJaworowski, Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Warsaw and former chair of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, 08 (Professor Zbigniew, Fear Propaganda,http://www.ourcivilisation.com/aginatur/cycles/chap3.htm, js)Doomsayers preaching the horrors of warming are not troubled by the fact that in the Middle Ages, when for a few hundred years it was warmer than it is now, neither the Maldive atolls nor the Pacific archipelagos were flooded. Global oceanic levels have been rising for some hundreds or thousands of years (the causes of this phenomenon are not clear). In the last 100 years, this increase amounted to 10 cm to 20 cm, (24) but it does not seem to be accelerated by the 20th Century warming. It turns out that in warmer climates, there is more water that evaporates from the ocean (and subsequently falls as snow on the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps) than there is water that flows to the seas from melting glaciers. (17) Since the 1970s, the glaciers of the Arctic, Greenland, and the Antarctic have ceased to retreat, and have started to grow. On January 18, 2002, the journal Science published the results of satellite-borne radar and ice core studies performed by scientists from CalTech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California at Santa Cruz. These results indicate that the Antarctic ice flow has been slowed, and sometimes even stopped, and that this has resulted in the thickening of the continental glacier at a rate of 26.8 billion tons a year. (25) In 1999, a Polish Academy of Sciences paper was prepared as a source material for a report titled "Forecast of the Defense Conditions for the Republic of Poland in 2001-2020." The paper implied that the increase of atmospheric precipitation by 23% in Poland, which was presumed to be caused by global warming, would be detrimental. (Imagine stating this in a country where 38% of the area suffers from permanent surface water deficit!) The same paper also deemed an extension of the vegetation period by 60 to 120 days as a disaster. Truly, a possibility of doubling the crop rotation, or even prolonging by four months the harvest of radishes, makes for a horrific vision in the minds of the authors of this paper. Newspapers continuously write about the increasing frequency and power of the storms. The facts, however, speak otherwise. I cite here only some few data from Poland, but there are plenty of data from all over the world. In Cracow, in 1896-1995, the number of storms with hail and precipitation exceeding 20 millimeters has decreased continuously, and after 1930, the number of all storms decreased. (26) In 1813 to 1994, the frequency and magnitude of floods of Vistula River in Cracow not only did not increase but, since 1940, have significantly decreased. (27) Also, measurements in the Kolobrzeg Baltic Sea harbor indicate that the number of gales has not increased between 1901 Food Security1NC FrontlineFood security conflicts inevitable no explanation of how algae biofuels reverse food insecurity their scenario becomes a solvency deficit

US alone cant solve multilateral institutions key and already working in the status quoJackson and Kask 12 (Lee Ann Jackson and Ulla Kask, WTO Secretariat, Food Security and Multilateralism, Research and Analysis, World Trade Organization, 2012, http://www.wto.org/english/forums_e/public_forum12_e/art_pf12_e/art4.htm)//CSDuring recent years, in the face of increasing and volatile food prices, the international community has come together in a variety of configurations to consider policies that will ensure food security. Typically the discussions acknowledge that solutions to food security must include both policies that target the short-term food security for vulnerable populations and policies that focus on medium and long-term strategies for ensuring adequate investment in agriculture, including enhancing linkages to markets for rural poor and removing unnecessary market distortions. Within the constellation of policies that are necessary to address food security, the multilateral trading system can play a significant role. First, at a basic level, trade provides a bridge for the physical movement of food between food deficit and food surplus areas. Second, trade has the potential to stabilize food prices. In the short term, undistorted trade enhances food security by making food imports more affordable and by facilitating exports. In the long run, if producers are adequately linked to markets these price signals generate a favourable supply responses and stimulate efficient food production around the world. Third, trade rules contribute to enhanced transparency and predictability which benefit both importers and exporters of agricultural products. While most individual countries would recognize that robust, undistorted international markets can be part of the global food security solution, in the face of food crisis countries may have decreased confidence in the multilateral trading system. Recently, for example, in the context of rising prices, many countries imposed export barriers with a view to ensuring that domestic markets had adequate supply to satisfy domestic consumer demand. These types of policies have negative food security impacts both in the short and long run. In the short term, these policies create more volatility in international markets, particularly for products that are not traded extensively on the international markets and reduce availability of food for importing countries. In the long run, restricting exports distorts prices, thus creating disincentives to efficient producers. The dilemma in this case is that individual country-level decisions can negatively impact global food security outcomes while solutions to food security will require collective decision-making. The good news is that in response to food crisis, several multilateral initiatives to coordinate policy actions have been launched. In 2008 the UN Secretary General created the High Level Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis to ensure that the UN system, international financial institutions and the WTO were ready to provide robust and consistent support to countries struggling to cope with food insecurity. In 2009, the G-8, in a joint statement, committed to the LAquila Food Security Initiative, which recognizes that "Food security, nutrition and sustainable agriculture must remain a priority issue on the political agenda, to be addressed through a cross-cutting and inclusive approach, involving all relevant stakeholders, at global, regional and national level." At the World Summit on Food Security in 2009 world leaders "agreed to work to reverse the decline in domestic and international funding for agriculture and promote new investment in the sector, to improve governance of global food issues in partnership with relevant stakeholders from the public and private sector, and to proactively face the challenges of climate change to food security." More recently, in 2011 the G20 Summit led to important steps to reduce price volatility, including the creation of the Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning system and the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). This year's summit will continue discussions on this work in order to reach the goals of reduced volatility, poverty reduction, and global food security.

Food insecurity decreasing long term trend provesHoevel 13 (Michael Hoevel, former deputy director of Agriculture for Impact at Imperial College London, Food security: facts and figures, SciDevNet, November 21, 2013, http://www.scidev.net/global/food-security/feature/food-security-facts-and-figures.html)//CSWhat is food security? Food security actually describes a number of related yet distinct phenomena, for instance, the availability of food but also the ability to access and use it reliably. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) defines food security as a state whereby all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. [2] Food insecurity, the flip side of food security, is broader in scope than hunger (or undernourishment) because it also includes malnutrition not having enough micronutrients (or excessive or imbalanced amounts) in your diet. Food security is also interlinked with poverty and health. The World Bank has calculated that agricultural investments have at least twice the potential to reduce poverty as investments in any other sector. [3] In addition, people with low energy levels or poor health are often not able to be productive, and those without adequate work are less able to purchase food. This relationship is often referred to as the food-nutrition-livelihoods nexus. In practice, measuring food security and trends over time can be challenging. Since 1950 the global population has more than doubled to 7.2 billion people, yet the total number of hungry or undernourished people has remained largely the same (see Figure 3). [4] In percentage terms, this represents a monumental drop in the prevalence of hunger from around one-third to around one-eighth of the population, driven at least in part by increases in agricultural productivity and increased trade (which lower food prices).

No conflict - countries will cooperate over food Burger et al. 10 -Development Economics, Corresponding author, Wageningen University (Kees, Governance of the world food system and crisis prevention http://www.stuurgroepta.nl/rapporten/Foodshock-web.pdf ) //SQRBoth European water and agricultural policies are based on the belief that there will always be cheap food aplenty on the world market. A recent British report 23 reflects this optimism. Although production is now more prone to world market price shocks, their effects on farm incomes are softened by extensive income supports (van Eickhout et al. 2007). Earlier, in a 2003 report, a European group of agricultural economists wrote: Food security is no longer a prime objective of European food and agricultural policy. There is no credible threat to the availability of the basic ingredients of human nutrition from domestic and foreign sources. If there is a food security threat it is the possible disruption of supplies by natural disasters or catastrophic terrorist action. The main response necessary for such possibilities is the appropriate contingency planning and co-ordination between the Commission and Member States (Anania et al. 2003). Europe, it appears, feels rather sure of itself, and does not worry about a potential food crisis. We are also not aware of any special measures on standby. Nevertheless a fledgling European internal security has been called into being that can be deployed should (food) crises strike. The Maastricht Treaty (1992) created a quasi-decision-making platform to respond to transboundary threats. Since 9/11 the definition of what constitutes a threat has been broadened and the protection capacity reinforced. In the Solidarity Declaration of 2003 member states promised to stand by each other in the event of a terrorist attack, natural disaster or human-made calamity (the European Security Strategy of 2003). Experimental forms of cooperation are tried that leave member-state sovereignty intact, such as pooling of resources. The EU co-operates in the area of health and food safety but its mechanisms remain decentrslised by dint of the principle of subsidiarity. The silo mentality between the European directorates is also unhelpful, leading to Babylonian confusion. Thus, in the context of forest fires and floods the Environment DG refers to civil protection. The European Security and Defence Policy( ESDP) of 2006, which is hoped to build a bridge between internal and external security policy, on the other hand refers to crisis management, while the security concept mainly pertains to pandemics (Rhinard et al. 2008: 512, Boin et al. 2008: 406).

Algae biofuels are unsustainable large amounts of energy consumption, little outputRampton and Zabarenko 12 (ROBERTA RAMPTON AND DEBORAH ZABARENKO, October 24, 2012, Algae biofuel not sustainable now-U.S. research council, Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/24/us-usa-biofuels-algae-idUSBRE89N1Q820121024)//CSBiofuels made from algae, promoted by President Barack Obama as a possible way to help wean Americans off foreign oil, cannot be made now on a large scale without using unsustainable amounts of energy, water and fertilizer, the U.S. National Research Council reported on Wednesday. "Faced with today's technology, to scale up any more is going to put really big demands on ... not only energy input, but water, land and the nutrients you need, like carbon dioxide, nitrate and phosphate," said Jennie Hunter-Cevera, a microbial physiologist who headed the committee that wrote the report. Hunter-Cevera stressed that this is not a definitive rejection of algal biofuels, but a recognition that they may not be ready to supply even 5 percent, or approximately 10.3 billion gallons (39 billion liters), of U.S. transportation fuel needs. "Algal biofuels is still a teenager that needs to be developed and nurtured," she said by telephone. The National Research Council is part of the National Academies, a group of private nonprofit institutions that advise government on science, technology and health policy. Its sustainability assessment was requested by the Department of Energy, which has invested heavily in projects to develop the alternative fuel. The National Research Council report shows that the government should continue research on algal biofuel as well as other technologies that reduce oil use, an Energy Department spokeswoman said. Tim Zenk, a Sapphire vice president, said the company has worked for five years on the sustainability issues examined in the report. "The NRC has acknowledged something that the industry has known about in its infancy and began to address immediately," he said. He said Sapphire recycles water and uses land that is not suitable for agriculture at its New Mexico site, where it hopes to make 100 barrels of algal biofuel a day by 2014. The council study also said it was unclear whether producing that much biofuel from algae would actually lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. The report shows the strategy is too risky, said Friends of the Earth, an environmental group. "Algae production poses a double-edged threat to our water resources, already strained by the drought," Michal Rosenoer, a biofuels campaigner with the group, said in a statement. Industry group Algal Biomass Organization focused on the positives in its statement.2NC Multilat SolvesUS assistance isnt enough multilateral institutions are key to solve for food insecurity Office of Global Food Security 13 (Office of Global Food Security, US Department of State, Global Hunger and Food Security Initiative Consultation Document, 2013, http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/130164.pdf)//CSU.S. assistance cannot reach every country that needs assistance; multilateral institutions provide an opportunity to partner with the global community to make a global impact. Multilateral institutions can efficiently deliver global resources for food security, complement bilateral activities, and strengthen in-country donor coordination processes. Multilateral development banks and funds, such as the World Bank, the regional development banks, and the International Fund for Agriculture and Development (IFAD) also have important comparative advantages that complement bilateral programs. For example, they can undertake large-scale transportation projects or support intra-regional transportation corridors that boost trade flows and reduce the costs and time to ship inputs and crops. In addition, multilateral institutions such as the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) have significant technical experience that can be leveraged to help implement a multi-stakeholder strategy. Multilateral institutions, such as the UN High Level Task Force, will also play an important global coordination role. One important financing mechanism is a flexible multi-donor trust fund at the World Bank proposed at the 2009 Pittsburgh G-20 Summit that will build on the success of the World Bank's Global Food Crisis Response Program (GFRP). This mechanism will finance medium- and long- term investments in foundational areas such as regional infrastructure, market development, input systems development, and policy frameworks. This fund will leverage the World Bank's existing resources, agriculture expertise, experience working across sectors and ministries, and near universal presence in low-income countries to fill critical gaps that donors and country partners often find difficult to implement in a timely or efficient manner on their own. This mechanism will finance country proposals through a number of potential implementing agencies such as IFAD, the regional multilateral development banks, and the World Bank. This mechanism will also finance private sector activities to help catalyze private investment along the agriculture value-chain.World Bank solves food crisesThe World Bank 12 [Food Price Volatility a Growing Concern, World Bank Stands Ready to Respond, July 30, 2012, http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/07/30/food-price-volatility-growing-concern-world-bank-stands-ready-respond]Should the current situation escalate, the World Bank Group stands ready to assist client countries through measures such as increased agriculture and agriculture-related investment, policy advice, fast-track financing, the multi-donor Global Agriculture and Food Security Program, and risk management products. We are also coordinating with UN agencies through the High-Level Task Force on the Global Food Security Crisis and with non-governmental organizations, as well as supporting the Partnership for Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) to improve food market transparency and to help governments make informed responses to global food price spikes.

2NC Insecurity LowFood insecurity decreasing long term trends proveWorld Vision International 12 (World Vision International, October 9, 2012, Globally almost 870 million chronically undernourished - new hunger report, http://www.wvi.org/food-assistance/article/state-food-insecurity)//CSThe global number of hungry people declined by 132 million between 1990-92 and 2010-12, or from 18.6 percent to 12.5 percent of the world's population, and from 23.2 percent to 14.9 percent in developing countries - putting the MDG target within reach if adequate, appropriate actions are taken. The number of hungry declined more sharply between 1990 and 2007 than previously believed. Since 2007-2008, however, global progress in reducing hunger has slowed and leveled off The new estimates suggest that the increase in hunger during 2007-2010 was less severe than previously thought. The 2008-2009 economic crisis did not cause an immediate sharp economic slowdown in many developing countries as was feared could happen; the transmission of international food prices to domestic markets was less pronounced than was assumed at the time while many governments succeeded in cushioning the shocks and protecting the most vulnerable from the effects of the price spike. The numbers of hunger released today are part of a revised series that go back to 1990. It uses updated information on population, food supply, food losses, dietary energy requirements and other factors. They also better estimate the distribution of food (as measured in terms of dietary energy supply) within countries. SOFI 2012 notes that the methodology does not capture the short-term effects of food price surges and other economic shocks. FAO is also working to develop a wider set of indicators to better capture dietary quality and other dimensions of food security. MDG target within reach The report suggests that if appropriate actions are taken to reverse the slowdown in 2007-08 and to feed the hungry, achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing by half the share of hungry people in the developing world by 2015 is still within reach. "If the average annual hunger reduction of the past 20 years continues through to 2015, the percentage of undernourishment in the developing countries would reach 12.5 percent - still above the MDG target of 11.6 percent, but much closer to it than previously estimated," the report says. Asia leads in number of hungry; hunger rises in Africa Among the regions, undernourishment in the past two decades decreased nearly 30 percent in Asia and the Pacific, from 739 million to 563 million, largely due to socio-economic progress in many countries in the region. Despite population growth, the prevalence of undernourishment in the region decreased from 23.7 percent to 13.9 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean also made progress, falling from 65 million hungry in 1990-1992 to 49 million in 2010-2012, while the prevalence of undernourishment dipped from 14.6 percent to 8.3 percent. But the rate of progress has slowed recently. 2NC No ConflictWont go to war over foodChang 2/21/11 Graduated Cornell Law School (Gordon, Global Food Wars http://blogs.forbes.com/gordonchang/2011/02/21/global-food-wars/ )//SQRIn any event, food-price increases have apparently been factors in the unrest now sweeping North Africa and the Middle East. The poor spend up to half their disposable income on edibles, making rapid food inflation a cause of concern for dictators, strongmen, and assorted autocrats everywhere. So even if humankind does not go to war over bad harvests, Paskal may be right when she contends that climate change may end up altering the global map. This is not the first time in human history that food shortages looked like they would be the motor of violent geopolitical change. Yet amazing agronomic advances, especially Norman Borlaugs Green Revolution in the middle of the 20th century, have consistently proved the pessimists wrong. In these days when capitalism is being blamed for most everything, its important to remember the power of human innovation in free societiesand the efficiency of free markets. 2NC UnsustainableAlgae biofuels cant solve - expensive and unsustainable Kanellos 9 (Michael Kanellos, Vice President and Technology Analyst at GreenTech Media, February 3, 2009, Algae Biodiesel: It's $33 a Gallon, http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/algae-biodiesel-its-33-a-gallon-5652)//CSYou can grow algae with carbon dioxide and sunlight, but that doesn't mean it's free. Although many believe that algae will become one of the chief feedstocks for diesel and even hydrocarbon-like fuels, growing large amounts of algae and then converting the single-celled creatures remains expensive, said experts at the National Biodiesel Conference taking place in San Francisco on Tuesday. Algae biofuel startup Solix, for instance, can produce biofuel from algae right now, but it costs about $32.81 a gallon, said Bryan Wilson, a co-founder of the company and a professor at Colorado State University. The production cost is high because of the energy required to circulate gases and other materials inside the photo bioreactors where the algae grow. It also takes energy to dry out the biomass, and Solix uses far less water than other companies (see Cutting the Cost of Making Algae by 90%). By exploiting waste heat at adjacent utilities (one of our favorite forms of energy around here), the price can probably be brought down to $5.50 a gallon (see Will Waste Heat Be Bigger Than Solar?). By selling the proteins and other byproducts from the algae for pet food, the price can be brought to $3.50 a gallon in the near term. But that's still the equivalent of $150 a barrel of oil. "We we're excited in July [when oil was approaching that level]," he joked. "But we knew it wasn't sustainable." It's only in phase II of Solix's business plan that it will be able to drop production costs to $3.30 to $1.57 a gallon, or around $60 to $80 a barrel. Solix has set a goal of cutting the cost of making algae by 90 percent. Is algae a good feedstock? Yes, he insisted. Ultimately, algae could yield 5,000 to 10,000 gallons an acre, far higher than other feedstocks. Soy is only good for around 40 to 50 gallons an acre. Touted plants like jatropha might only produce 175 gallons an acre, he said. But algae comes with trade-offs. Wild algae grows fast, but it doesn't yield tremendous amounts of oil naturally two thirds or more of the body weight of wild algae will be proteins and carbohydrates instead of oil. Genetically modified algae can boost the oil content, but that slows the growth process. Closed bioreactors i.e., sealed plastic bags placed in the sun -- cost more than open ponds, but it's tough to keep invasive species from taking over open ponds and out-competing algae optimized to produce oil. "There's a dance between the growth rate and lipid content," Wilson said. Much of the cost reduction for Solix will be accomplished through extraction techniques the company hasn't discussed yet. And algae companies will have to harvest everything their microorganisms produce. "We don't have the solutions that are publicly discussed that give us the costs that we need," he said, adding, "The value of the co-products have to be captured and the value of the co-products could exceed the value of the oil." Some companies, like Solazyme, are exploiting genetic science and fermenting techniques to accomplish the task. In fermentation, specific species of algae are locked into brewing kettles with sugars derived from old plant matter. When the time is right, Solazyme takes out the microbes and squeezes out the oil. It's cheaper to get large volumes of feedstock oil through fermentation than growing algae in ponds or bioreactors, said CEO Jonathan Wolfson. Genetically modifying the algae can boost the lipid, or oil, content to 70 percent of the organism's weight. In a sense, Solazyme practices indirect photosynthesis: the algae doesn't grow by having sunlight shone upon it but by eating sugars that were grown in the sun. "Algae is by far the best organism on the planet for converting fixed carbon into oil," he said. "But economically, others are more efficient at taking sunlight and carbon dioxide and turning it into oil." Solazyme says it will be capable of producing competitively priced fuel from algae in 24 to 36 months. Solazyme actually uses photosynthesis for growing some algae, but only higher value oils for the cosmetic or other industries. Another, Phycal, is trying to harvest oil from algae without killing the algae. Instead, Phycal bathes the algae in solvents which can suck out the oil. Some strains of algae can go through the process four times or more. "Think of it as milking algae rather than sending it to the slaughterhouse," said senior scientist Brad Postier. "By not killing the cells, we don't have to grow the biomass again."Economy1NC FrontlinePrice rise resilient- Libyan delays, China growthGloystein 7/16 (Henning, community editor for Reuters European power, coal, and gas, Deputy Director for Markets and Strategy at the London-based environmental market consultancy IDEAcarbon, Oil rises on delayed Libyan port restarts, improved China growth)LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. September crude prices gained a dollar to over $100.50 a barrel on Wednesday as data from China showed its economy grew faster than expected and a Libyan official said two main eastern oil ports would unlikely export before August. China's improving outlook and the delayed Libyan port restart ended oil's longest losing streak since 2010 which had pulled Brent down more than 8 percent since mid-June. U.S. September crude gained a dollar to a high of $100.53 a barrel. The contract fell as low as $98.68 in the previous session, its lowest since May. The North Sea September benchmark was at $107.41 by 1135 GMT, after hitting an intraday low of $105.59 on Tuesday, the weakest price since early May. The August contract expires on Wednesday. Prices were pushed up by a report that Libya's two main eastern oil ports Es Sider and Ras Lanuf are unlikely to restart crude exports before August, traders said. "They haven't actually exported a single barrel from these ports yet, and as far as I know there are no sign of any export," said Michael Barry, director at FGE in London. Oil markets were already gaining prior to the Libyan port delay after China published better than expected economic data. "Hopes for a rebound in risk appetite now lie with China after it reported an uptick in the pace of economic growth," oil brokerage PVM said. China's economy grew by 7.5 percent between April and June from a year ago, slightly above expectations and up from 7.4 percent in the first quarter, government data showed on Wednesday. China's implied oil demand rose 2.6 percent compared with a year ago to 10.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, the highest since January 2013, according to Reuters calculations based on preliminary government data. U.S. CRUDE STOCKS DOWN In the United States, prices also rose on the expectation of strong industrial production and the publication of official oil inventory figures, to be released later on Wednesday. Crude oil inventories fell 4.8 million barrels in the week ended July 11, data from industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were forecast to have fallen 2.1 million barrels last week, as refiners increased output, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. Empirics prove no impact to oil shocksKahn, 11 Journalist, formerly a Pew International Journalism Fellow at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (Jeremy, Crude Reality, 2/13/11, http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2011/02/13/crude_reality/?page=full)Among those asking this tough question are two young professors, Eugene Gholz, at the University of Texas, and Daryl Press, at Dartmouth College. To find out what actually happens when the worlds petroleum supply is interrupted, the duo analyzed every major oil disruption since 1973. The results, published in a recent issue of the journal Strategic Studies, showed that in almost all cases, the ensuing rise in prices, while sometimes steep, was short-lived and had little lasting economic impact. When there have been prolonged price rises, they found the cause to be panic on the part of oil purchasers rather than a supply shortage. When oil runs short, in other words, the market is usually adept at filling the gap. One striking example was the height of the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. If anything was likely to produce an oil shock, it was this: two major Persian Gulf producers directly targeting each others oil facilities. And indeed, prices surged 25 percent in the first months of the conflict. But within 18 months of the wars start they had fallen back to their prewar levels, and they stayed there even though the fighting continued to rage for six more years. Surprisingly, during the 1984 Tanker War phase of that conflict when Iraq tried to sink oil tankers carrying Iranian crude and Iran retaliated by targeting ships carrying oil from Iraq and its Persian Gulf allies the price of oil continued to drop steadily. Gholz and Press found just one case after 1973 in which the market mechanisms failed: the 1979-1980 Iranian oil strike which followed the overthrow of the Shah, during which Saudi Arabia, perhaps hoping to appease Islamists within the country, also led OPEC to cut production, exacerbating the supply shortage. In their paper, Gholz and Press ultimately conclude that the markets adaptive mechanisms function independently of the US military presence in the Persian Gulf, and that they largely protect the American economy from being damaged by oil shocks. To the extent that the United States faces a national security challenge related to Persian Gulf oil, it is not how to protect the oil we need but how to assure consumers that there is nothing to fear, the two write. That is a thorny policy problem, but it does not require large military deployments and costly military operations. Theres no denying the importance of Middle Eastern oil to the US economy. Although only 15 percent of imported US oil comes directly from the Persian Gulf, the region is responsible for nearly a third of the worlds production and the majority of its known reserves. But the oil market is also elastic: Many key producing countries have spare capacity, so if oil is cut off from one country, others tend to increase their output rapidly to compensate. Today, regions outside the Middle East, such as the west coast of Africa, make up an increasingly important share of worldwide production. Private companies also hold large stockpiles of oil to smooth over shortages amounting to a few billion barrels in the United States alone as does the US government, with 700 million barrels in its strategic petroleum reserve. And the market can largely work around shipping disruptions by using alternative routes; though they are more expensive, transportation costs account for only tiny fraction of the price of oil. Compared to the 1970s, too, the structure of the US economy offers better insulation from oil price shocks. Today, the country uses half as much energy per dollar of gross domestic product as it did in 1973, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. Remarkably, the economy consumed less total energy in 2009 than in 1997, even though its GDP rose and the population grew. When it comes time to fill up at the pump, the average US consumer today spends less than 4 percent of his or her disposable income on gasoline, compared with more than 6 percent in 1980. Oil, though crucial, is simply a smaller part of the economy than it once was. There is no denying that the 1973 oil shock was bad the stock market crashed in response to the sudden spike in oil prices, inflation jumped, and unemployment hit levels not seen since the Great Depression. The 1979 oil shock also had deep and lasting economic effects. Economists now argue, however, that the economic damage was more directly attributable to bad government policy than to the actual supply shortage. Among those who have studied past oil shocks is Ben Bernanke, the current chairman of the Federal Reserve. In 1997, Bernanke analyzed the effects of a sharp rise in fuel prices during three different oil shocks 1973-75, 1980-82, and 1990-91. He concluded that the major economic damage was caused not by the oil price increases but by the Federal Reserve overreacting and sharply increasing interest rates to head off what it wrongly feared would be a wave of inflation. Today, his view is accepted by most mainstream economists. Gholz and Press are hardly the only researchers who have concluded that we are far too worried about oil shocks. The economy also faced a large increase in prices in the mid-2000s, largely as the result of surging demand from emerging markets, with no ill effects. If you take any economics textbook written before 2000, it would talk about what a calamitous effect a doubling in oil prices would have, said Philip Auerswald, an associate professor at George Mason Universitys School of Public Policy who has written about oil shocks and their implications for US foreign policy. Well, we had a price quadrupling from 2003 and 2007 and nothing bad happened. (The recession of 2008-9 was triggered by factors unrelated to oil prices.) Auerswald also points out that when Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast in 2005, it did tremendous damage to offshore oil rigs, refineries, and pipelines, as well as the rail lines and roads that transport petroleum to the rest of the country. The United States gets about 12 percent of its oil from the Gulf of Mexico region, and, more significantly, 40 percent of its refining capacity is located there. Al Qaeda times 1,000 could not deliver this sort of blow to the oil industrys physical infrastructure, Auerswald said. And yet the only impact was about five days of gas lines in Georgia, and unusually high prices at the pump for a few weeks.Algae biofuels cant transition away higher GHG emissions, petroleum dependency, peak phosphorus, and lack of supplySchelmetic 13 (Tracey Schelmetic, technology and science editor at Appleton & Lange, contributor to ThomasNet, Biofuel from Algae Part One: The Pros and Cons of Pond Scum, ThomasNet, February 22, 2013, http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/2013/02/19/biofuel-from-algae-part-one-the-pros-and-cons-of-pond-scum/)//CSWhile algae-based biofuel may use far less land and have a higher energy yield than other biodiesel crops, its production also requires more energy and water (albeit not necessarily fresh water) than plant sources such as corn. It also has higher greenhouse gas emissions. The reason is that the production of the final product is more complex and therefore more energy intensive. While many kinds of algae are easy to cultivate, the species of the plant that contain the most fats are most suitable for biodiesel, and these specialized lipid-producers are a bit fussier than ordinary algae. Another challenge arises in the final algae-based biodiesel product: it simply doesnt flow well at lower temperatures. In a paper entitled, Production and Properties of Biodiesel from Algal Oils, research chemist Gerhard Knothe of the U.S. Department of Agricultures Agricultural Research Service made unexpected findings when it came to actually using algae biodiesel. He found that many, if not most, of biodiesel fuels derived from algae have significant problems when it comes to their ability to flow well at lower temperatures (referred to as cold flow). In addition, he found that algae biofuels degrade more easily than other types of biofuels. Knothe recommended that these cold flow issues might be solved by blending the algae fuels with other fuels or possibly special additives to improve flow. While algae biodiesel product is largely carbon neutral, critics point out that it still requires carbon, and that carbon is derived from petroleum-based sources, which means that algae cultivation is still essentially dependent on petroleum. Ironically, algae biofuel could actually be a victim of its own success: were it to supplant petroleum-based fuels on a large scale, it would its most important source of carbon dioxide required for production. The cultivation of algae (like the cultivation of most other plants) requires large amounts of phosphorus as a fertilizer, and while its not an oft-discussed topic, the world is currently on the brink of a peak of availability of Earths finite phosphate resources. Peak phosphorus, as its called, is the point in time at which the maximum global phosphorus production rate is reached. According to some researchers, Earths phosphorus reserves are expected to be completely depleted in 50 to 100 years, and peak phosphorus will be reached by the year 2030. (This is a fairly scary prospect for global agriculture, not just for algae production). To succeed, large scale algae production will need to reduce its use of phosphorus and find ways of reusing what it does require. The need for phosphorus in cultivation has been called by Forbes The Achilles Heel of algae biofuel. Finally, many critics point out that the world simply cant produce enough algae through natural photosynthesis to sustain the worlds need for fuel. Natural photosynthetic algae can produce about 2,000 gallons of fuel per acre per year today: far short of world demand, and far short of what scalable biofuel production requires to be economically feasible. For this reason, new production methods are being sought by the companies trying to make algae biofuel work better.

World economy has decoupled from USChina and other developing countries driving growthKennedy 10 (Simon Kennedy, Bloomberg, Wall Street sees World Economy Decoupling from US, October 4, 2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-03/world-economy-decoupling-from-u-s-in-slowdown-returns-as-wall-street-view.html) The world has already become partially decoupled, Joseph Stiglitz said in a Sept. 20 interview. Underpinning their analysis is the view that international reliance on U.S. trade has diminished and is too small to spread the lingering effects of Americas housing bust. Providing the U.S. pain doesnt roil financial markets as it did in the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs expects a weakening dollar, higher bond yields outside the U.S. and stronger emerging-market equities. So long as it doesnt turn to flu, the world can withstand a cold from the U.S., Ethan Harris, head of developed-markets economic research in New York at BofA Merrill Lynch, said in a telephone interview. He predicts the U.S. will expand 1.8 percent next year, compared with 3.9 percent globally. That may provide comfort for some of the central bankers and finance ministers from 187 nations flocking to Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank on Oct. 8-10. IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard last month predicted positive but low growth in advanced countries, while developing nations expand at a very high rate. He will release revised forecasts on Oct. 6. Partially Decoupled The world has already become partially decoupled, Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at New Yorks Columbia University, said in a Sept. 20 interview in Zurich. He will speak at an IMF event this week. Sixteen months after the worlds largest economy emerged from recession, the U.S. recovery is losing momentum, with factory orders falling 0.5 percent in August and unemployment forecast to increase to 9.7 percent in September from the previous months 9.6 percent, according to the median estimate of 78 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Their predictions dont include another contraction, with growth estimated at 2.7 percent this year and some indicators showing progress. Orders for capital goods rose 5.1 percent in August and the number of contracts to purchase previously owned homes increased 4.3 percent; both were higher than forecasts. China Manufacturing Accelerates Even so, emerging markets are showing more strength. Manufacturing in China accelerated for a second consecutive month in September, and industrial production in India jumped 13.8 percent in July from a year earlier, more than twice the June pace. It seems that recent economic data help to confirm the story of emerging-markets outperformance, said David Lubin, chief economist for emerging markets at Citigroup Inc. in London. The gap in growth rates between the developing and advanced worlds is widening, he said. Emerging economies will account for about 60 percent of global expansion this year and next, up from about 25 percent a decade ago, according to his estimates. The main reason for the divergence: Direct transmission from a U.S. slowdown to other economies through exports is just not large enough to spread a U.S. demand problem globally, Goldman Sachs economists Dominic Wilson and Stacy Carlson wrote in a Sept. 22 report entitled If the U.S. sneezes...Economic decline doesnt cause warBarnett 9 [senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine, columnist for World Politics Review, Thomas P.M. The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis, World Politics Review, 8/252009,http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules--security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx]When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze with all sorts of scary predictions of, and commentary regarding, ensuing conflict and wars -- a rerun of the Great Depression leading to world war, as it were. Now, as global economic news brightens and recovery -- surprisingly led by China and emerging markets -- is the talk of the day, it's interesting to look back over the past year and realize how globalization's first truly worldwide recession has had virtually no impact whatsoever on the international security landscape. None of the more than three-dozen ongoing conflicts listed by GlobalSecurity.org can be clearly attributed to the global recession. Indeed, the last new entry (civil conflict between Hamas and Fatah in the Palestine) predates the economic crisis by a year, and three quarters of the chronic struggles began in the last century. Ditto for the 15 low-intensity conflicts listed by Wikipedia (where the latest entry is the Mexican "drug war" begun in 2006). Certainly, the Russia-Georgia conflict last August was specifically timed, but by most accounts the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics was the most important external trigger (followed by the U.S. presidential campaign) for that sudden spike in an almost two-decade long struggle between Georgia and its two breakaway regions. Looking over the various databases, then, we see a most familiar picture: the usual mix of civil conflicts, insurgencies, and liberation-themed terrorist movements. Besides the recent Russia-Georgia dust-up, the only two potential state-on-state wars (North v. South Korea, Israel v. Iran) are both tied to one side acquiring a nuclear weapon capacity -- a process wholly unrelated to global economic trends. And with the United States effectively tied down by its two ongoing major interventions (Iraq and Afghanistan-bleeding-into-Pakistan), our involvement elsewhere around the planet has been quite modest, both leading up to and following the onset of the economic crisis: e.g., the usual counter-drug efforts in Latin America, the usual military exercises with allies across Asia, mixing it up with pirates off Somalia's coast). Everywhere else we find serious instability we pretty much let it burn, occasionally pressing the Chinese -- unsuccessfully -- to do something. Our new Africa Command, for example, hasn't led us to anything beyond advising and training local forces. So, to sum up: No significant uptick in mass violence or unrest (remember the smattering of urban riots last year in places like Greece, Moldova and Latvia?); The usual frequency maintained in civil conflicts (in all the usual places); Not a single state-on-state war directly caused (and no great-power-on-great-power crises even triggered); No great improvement or disruption in great-power cooperation regarding the emergence of new nuclear powers (despite all that diplomacy); A modest scaling back of international policing efforts by the system's acknowledged Leviathan power (inevitable given the strain); and No serious efforts by any rising great power to challenge that Leviathan or supplant its role. (The worst things we can cite are Moscow's occasional deployments of strategic assets to the Western hemisphere and its weak efforts to outbid the United States on basing rights in Kyrgyzstan; but the best include China and India stepping up their aid and investments in Afghanistan and Iraq.) Sure, we've finally seen global defense spending surpass the previous world record set in the late 1980s, but even that's likely to wane given the stress on public budgets created by all this unprecedented "stimulus" spending. If anything, the friendly cooperation on such stimulus packaging was the most notable great-power dynamic caused by the crisis. Can we say that the world has suffered a distinct shift to political radicalism as a result of the economic crisis? Indeed, no. The world's major economies remain governed by center-left or center-right political factions that remain decidedly friendly to both markets and trade. In the short run, there were attempts across the board to insulate economies from immediate damage (in effect, as much protectionism as allowed under current trade rules), but there was no great slide into "trade wars." Instead, the World Trade Organization is functioning as it was designed to function, and regional efforts toward free-trade agreements have not slowed. Can we say Islamic radicalism was inflamed by the economic crisis? If it was, that shift was clearly overwhelmed by the Islamic world's growing disenchantment with the brutality displayed by violent extremist groups such as al-Qaida. And looking forward, austere economic times are just as likely to breed connecting evangelicalism as disconnecting fundamentalism. At the end of the day, the economic crisis did not prove to be sufficiently frightening to provoke major economies into establishing global regulatory schemes, even as it has sparked a spirited -- and much needed, as I argued last week -- discussion of the continuing viability of the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Naturally, plenty of experts and pundits have attached great significance to this debate, seeing in it the beginning of "economic warfare" and the like between "fading" America and "rising" China. And yet, in a world of globally integrated production chains and interconnected financial markets, such "diverging interests" hardly constitute signposts for wars up ahead. Frankly, I don't welcome a world in which America's fiscal profligacy goes undisciplined, so bring it on -- please! Add it all up and it's fair to say that this global financial crisis has proven the great resilience of America's post-World War II international liberal trade order. Do I expect to read any analyses along those lines in the blogosphere any time soon? Absolutely not. I expect the fantastic fear-mongering to proceed apace. Dont buy their international modeling argument their Das evidence says the model would be good for others countries to follow but it doesnt say they will2NC Oil SustainableShale proves that emerging demand means oil prices will remain high despite new sourcesSimha 13 (Rakesh Krishnan Simha, Journalist and foreign affairs analyst, Why shale is going stale and you can forget about low oil prices, Russia and India Report, December 1, 2013, http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2013/12/01/why_shale_is_going_stale_and_you_can_forget_about_low_oil_prices_31277.html)The single biggest factor that negates the shale boom and keeps prices high is the insatiable demand for energy in emerging countries. With global energy trade already re-oriented from the Atlantic basin to the Asia-Pacific region, China is set to become the worlds largest oil-importing country. And after 2020, India is forecast to become the largest single source of global oil demand growth, says the IEA. It is also on course to become the largest importer of coal by the early 2020s. An interesting development is that the Middle East will emerge as a major consumption centre, emerging as the second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030. The IEA says the centre of grav+ity of global energy demand is now moving decisively towards emerging economies. By 2035 they will account for more than 90 per cent of net energy demand growth. Related: Russia sits on largest reserves of shale oil Shale boom forces Kremlin to focus on Arctic Russias daily oil production hits 25-year high So even if the US is able to flood the market with new oil, the likes of China and India will soak up that supply.

Oil prices are rising now and will stay high for the rest of 2014- assumes Middle East issuesLigato 7/15 (Lorenzo, editor of Yale daily news, Reuters energy reporter, Oil inches up as signs of healthy supply tempered by Libya, http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/07/14/markets-oil-idINL4N0PP1BN20140714, 7/15/2014)LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices ended slightly higher on Monday as traders weighed renewed violence in Libya against broader signs of a global market well-supplied with crude. Last week, North Sea benchmark Brent closed at its lowest in three months as easing tensions in Libya and Iraq mitigated fears of supply disruptions. But oil prices perked up a bit on Monday as violence flared anew. "More violence in Iraq and Libya raises some questions about their ability to keep production going," said James Williams, an energy economist at WTRG Economics in London, Arkansas. "But the fundamentals of supply and demand continue to be fairly balanced." Fighting broke out between rival militias vying for control of the airport in Tripoli on Sunday, killing at least six people in the worst violence the capital has seen in six months. The United Nations announced on its website on Monday that it is temporarily withdrawing its staff from Libya. Meanwhile, protesters have shut down production at the eastern Libyan oil port of Brega, state firm National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Saturday. No timetable was disclosed for resuming operations at the 43,000-barrel-per-day facility. Brent crude gained 32 cents to settle at $106.98 A barrel. It had dropped to $106.21 earlier in the session, the lowest intraday price since April. U.S. crude futures gained 8 cents to settle at $100.91 a barrel. The spread CL-LCO1=R between the two benchmarks closed at $6.07. Oil prices spiked to a nine-month high last month as an Islamist insurgency swept across Iraq. 2NC No Impact to ShocksShocks wont collapse the economyDechaux, 7 Reporter for the Herald Sun Australia (Delphine, Less Damage in Third Oil Shock, 5-5, http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/nations-learn-to-weather-oil-shock/2007/12/04/1196530678712.html)//AATHE world is enduring a third ''oil shock'' as crude prices trade at record levels close to $US100 a barrel after a sustained surge over the past three years, according to economists. But unlike the oil shocks of 1973 and 1980, this time the global economy remains solid, even amid the added threat of the US hous